₦airaland Forum

raumdeuter:
In America now police officers and doctors are getting infected and some dying

A friend posted on Facebook that 2 of his doctors colleagues working in the Emergency room have been intubated

Some doctors are scared of going home so they don't infect their families

Even gloves are scarce, hospitals are now short of PPEs

All my working days for the last 2 weeks have been spent looking for where to purchase PPE from 8am to 10pm everyday. Slowly I have managed to buy thousands of FFP3 masks, Surgical masks, Goggles and lenses, Face shields, Isolation gowns, fit-test machines etc. Where I am still struggling funny enough is Alcogels, and was struggling with FFP3 until I managed to find a few reliable sources.

That is just Supplies. I am hearing there is even bigger problem with Pharmacy guys who are struggling to get Propofol etc

afrodoc2:
There is a strong case against herd immunity, and that is why your government and other proponents have drawn back on it recently.

The best kind of herd immunity is the one derived from vaccines, but we don't appear to be close to that yet.This means that the only other option for developing herd immunity is infections.

Herd immunity derived from actual infections is a tricky thing. You need a certain threshold percentage of a population to be immune before you can get herd immunity, and this threshold percentage varies from disease to disease based on how infectious it is.

For example for a highly contagious disease like Measles you need over 90% of the population to be immune before you can have herd immunity. It is estimated that with the level of infectiousness of COVID-19 you need to have about 60% of the population immune i.e infected to develop herd immunity.

So if we take Nigeria as an example, 60% of the population is about 100million, meaning at least 100million Nigerians need to be infected to develop herd immunity. If we are assuming a mortality rate of 1-2%, that means potentially 1-2 million Nigerians will die of COVID-19 if it is deliberately left to spread in order to achieve herd immunity.

Good doctor, my theory is that our mortality rate will be a lot lower. I think Europe is running at circa 0.5% for starters given the lack of testing.

Also

1. We have a much younger population

2. A good percentage of our population with co-morbidities have died already. There is almost no Nigerian with Cancer or Cardiac problems for example that hasn't already died except the super rich. You will just hear "he died after a brief illness"

3. Vast majority of Nigerian men are in good cardiovascular fitness which seems to be a determining factor. And by Nigerian men, I don't mean those on Nairaland, but those who hit the street everyday and are naturally fit as a result of daily survival.

So I think our mortality rate will be much lower, maybe 0.2%.

And if you consider most of our population will activate chloroquine early unlike Europe who don't have access to the drug at home, maybe less.

Social distancing will inevitably fail in Nigeria given our living conditions, lack of education especially in the North, and need for daily survival. We should just ride it out. More would die from lockdown.

gensteejay:
Lagos Residents Hit The Streets To Protest As Hunger Strikes Hard Amid Lockdown: https://www.nairaland.com/5769057/lagos-residents-hit-streets-protest#88007891

Naija should just go with herd immunity please.

Only the middle class who can afford to sit home are promoting this thing. The masses cannot survive lockdown.

Social crisis will take place in Naija in just two weeks if every is forced to sit at home.

airmark:
If it's for Conte to sacrifice two of Vidal/Pogba/Kante, to accommodate Hazard, in his 3-5-2, he will do it.

I look forward to his ultimate team.

No he won't. Because Pirlo does not play in 2 man midfield.

Infact, now we're adding Tevez to the mix, Hazard is in more danger sef.

airmark:
Hazard will definitely make Conte's team, i don't see him dropped for Lautaro or Lukaku. Not as at today.

In 3-5-2, he can easily be benched for those two.

In 3-4-3, he will definitely play but Conte would prefer 3-5-2 cos he has 4 solid CMs already and will want to accommodate Pirlo in a 3 man midfield, plus he has coached no top winger except Hazard.

Therefore Hazard will have to try to squeeze into a 2 man strikeforce. Lukaku place is sure because Conte always goes for a big no9. Hazard will have to battle with Lautaro for 2nd striker position and could lose out easily.

airmark:
Not sure Conte will put Costa, to lead the line.

They may be dominated by the Serie A players, with only 3 or 4 from Chelsea. Hazard, Luiz/Azpi, Alonso/Fabregas.

Fabregas that he benched throughout his stay?

Luiz who he never wanted and wanted to get rid of in second season?

Asamoah will chance Alonso for LWB

Lichsteiner will take RWB

Bomucci, Chiellini and Barzagli will easily take CB positions

CM will be Pirlo guaranteed, then Kante, Vidal and Pogba battle for the last 2 spots

Upfront, Lukaku and Lautaro/Hazard

timbros:
Jose Mourinho ultimate XI

I'm surprised he choosed Ozil ahead of Sneijder and Gallas ahead of Ashley Cole...

Ashley Cole only joined in 2006 and spent only one year with Jose, plus he struggled that first year TBH

Melvyn11:
Next time don't jump into a post talking about assists records and be asking of goals. This was Swissh exposing your Lampard best ever league season. Awof penalty merchant

Lampard scored 27 goals that season. Take away penalties and still double your eunuchs best seasons

Melvyn11:
Look for someone else who is looking for goals. You saw my post specifically talking about assists you jumped in now you are asking about goals. Okoto meow in any language is always okoto.

If a midfielder is one of the top midfielders for assists and the top midfielder for goals, you should be Kwayet and stop picking at a non issue especially when you are a supporter of eunuchs.

Melvyn11:
Go and look at David Silva, Beckham and Fabregas Epl assist records with matches played and compare to your Lampard.

All top names. What of their goal record?

Few midfielders like the ones above drive Mercedes when it comes to assists, but live in Boys-quarters when it comes to goals.

Some midfielders drive Tokunbo (assists) but live in Mansion (goals) eg Dele Alli

Lampard is one of select few central midfielders that drive Mercedes and live in Mansion.

Be Kwayet!

pamcode:
I am looking forward to his answers to this.

The others must be Messi and Ronaldo, Henry and Van Nistelrooy.

Victornezzar:
I'll go for the Shanghai deal.... I've accomplished my dream to play for my fav club and made a name there

I might get drafted out of the team in such an unlike manner knowing fully well that the club has young guns coming up

It's always best to leave when the ovation is high

The Shanghai deal is a ruse by his agent to squeeze more money out of Manure jare. China that has introduced salary cap of £49k per week on new deals. Who want catch corona?

Melvyn11:
Let's pretend like lampard 102 primer league assist in 609matches is not shameful when compared to others.

Who are the others?

By the time we finish this conversation, you will be campaigning for Lampard to redistribute his goals and assists to the eunuchs.

iamoyindamola:
I want to believe some people maybe immune to it, I also read somewhere O+ have 80% chance to recover than any blood group

No that's wrong. The margins are not that good.

Although people with Type O blood make up 34% of China's population, Covid patients with Type O blood were 25% of the total patients. That would indicate they are slightly less susceptible but by no means anything close to immune.

Emaprince:
This corona of a thing dey make person fear any how sha.

I'm coughing now....and I just dey suspect myself

Is it a dry or wet cough?

Guy take chloroquine early if you have it oh.

I read a report that makes me believe politicians are experiencing mild Coro symptoms because they tend to catch a low viral load from handshaking, giving their immune system more time to react. . . . as compared to health and emergency workers who are dying in high numbers because they ingest high viral loads from patients in the workplace through coughing, aerosol disturbance etc. For example I found out Spain lost 800 police officers already. Afrodoc2 wetin you think?

Those waiting on NCDC are on a long ting

larride:
For now the lockdown is affecting just 3 states: Lagos, Ogun and FCT.

Though Kaduna State govt has locked down the state, it’s yet to be seen how the FG will proceed in the coming days.

That's just the start. If a whole Lagos and ABJ can be locked down, who is Jigawa?

larride:
Buhari order lockdown of Lagos and Abuja for 14 days starting from tomorrow 11pm.

Currently ongoing in the Nationwide address to the nation.

I thought you said Nigeria won't go on lockdown?

Buhari should adopt the Balsonaro approach.

Nigeria standing still will claim many more lives than the 1 in 500 or 1 in 1000 this will kill. We have a young population, and Europe's mortality rate will not transpire in Naija. We also face devastating illnesses with high mortality rates that we live with as a matter of course.

PDPGuy:
Naira is now exchanging 410 to $1!!!
And the price of oil has gone down to $25/barrel.

Nigerians are in for some truly tough times

Oh Lord!

Things go rough

afrodoc2:
I don’t think it’s even the right time yet. Most of those share prices will fall further. That would be the time to strike.

The minute they announce a vaccine, shares go rebound like Dennis Rodman, continuing until quarterly earnings information starts to trickle in, and if materially different to forecast, they'll hit another dip. A lot of CFOs will be downplaying losses in Earnings forecast presently to prevent run on their companies shareprice.

Until we get vaccine or herd immunity, shareprices will keep swinging wildly, from one Govt announcement to the next. They may even start trading on rumours of successful clinical trials if this last too long

If you are risk averse, buying after vaccine or infection curve pointing to herd immunity is best. You might miss the first day gains, but you'll get the continued growth thereafter. Some big companies may still go down or be acquired for peanuts by a bigger company if their balance sheet is too distressed and Govt refuses to bail them out.

Greatihex:
Seriously, so that guy that I posted the link to his video is actually a comedian? I didn't know that.


Although, I was suspicious of some of the acts he was displaying, but I never wanted to entertain the thought that someone will be doing that kind of shit as a joke in this serious time.

If actually that was just clouting, the police should do the needful and pick guy up.

The video looked funny to me even before learning he was a comedian.

If you have symptoms, you will be in bed, not trying to fall down outside while your local neighborhood mumu is holding you up so he also can catch the virus.

Sowore does do some fantastic reporting but when you practice citizen journalism, you will quite often be duped into reporting nonsense, and Sowore is too stubborn to retract.

afrodoc2:
For last year it was about 25k, meaning any money over that amount that you put into the fund gets taken out and put into your taxable income come end of financial year. And said money apparently gets taxed at a higher rate.

You be oga na. Money must find place to be put to use.

afrodoc2:
I need to go through the points you raised with my tax accountant though. Just to make sure that I am not counting flyovers while others are buying them.

Aussie laws may be different. I'm only relating UK laws. Prior to 2015, we only got taxed on the interest portion of mortgage payments on rental property. Now we get taxed on the full rent which for most Landlords fall in the 40% range, plus 12% National Insurance. Also capital appreciation started slowing down heavily in 2016, so it's no longer a case of just paying deposit and cashing out on equity gain. I don't think equity gain in UK, (especially London) competes with the tax exemption gain from pensions any longer.

raumdeuter:
Why I am asking mainly is that some stocks might be trading at all time lows, does it make sense to reduce what I am contributing and hold that cash for any opportunity that presents.

Do you think prices would have bottomed out or we still have gloomy days ahead?

To add to this, and why I use 2011 to 2015 as reference point us that it represents some sort of true value of companies.

Even though companies have fallen 20-30% during Covid, most companies are at least double their 2013 Shareprice without doubling their earnings.

The company I worked for had almost quintupled their 2011 Shareprice before Covid without even doubling their EBITDA. They did it through share buybacks and due to excess cash in the system and cheap credit looking for companies to invest in without a strong correlation between share price and earnings performance.

I personally believe the $1trn Obama put in the system in 2008 as bailout, coupled with cheap credit and foreign investment vehicles have been looking for anywhere to be put to use, and has caused an overvaluation of shareprices, and the Covid bear run still hasn't corrected that fully. That's why I keep saying that too much cash is chasing too little value.

raumdeuter:
We can access it at 65yrs.

That doesn't leave many years of enjoyment. Although we do these things mostly for the kids, we should still enjoy some disposable income in our later years na. I think UK age of 55 is decent, but at 65 in US, I may think twice about putting everything into 401k and keep some in property that I can still access and enjoy in my 50s.

raumdeuter:
Why I am asking mainly is that some stocks might be trading at all time lows, does it make sense to reduce what I am contributing and hold that cash for any opportunity that presents.

Do you think prices would have bottomed out or we still have gloomy days ahead?

I don't think there's any stock in the main markets selling at all time lows except they are genuinely distressed. The indexes are still trading above 2016 level, and therefore they haven't bottomed. Only consistent Govt interventions can keep them from falling further in the absence of a cure for Covid on the near horizon.

afrodoc2:
Fair point. I believe it is always good to diversify a bit. Pension funds should always be the bedrock of savings but property can be good too if, as you alluded to, one buys smartly. I have a friend that regularly pays little to no tax based on tax exemptions from his various property investments.

If done in a good location you pay only the initial deposit and the rest is paid off with the rent. Hold on to the building for 5-10 yrs and offload it for between 150-200% of how much you bought it for.

Yeah, property is still solid. I just tend to look at the percentages, and it depends largely on the tax regime in your country. For example, as you said, you can sell a property for 200% of what you bought it in 10 years time. However in the UK, you will get taxed 40% of rent you collect, you still have maintenance charges etc so people are starting to diversify from buy-to-let because of the change in tax laws.

On the other hand, UK tax exemptions on pensions will allow you to achieve that 200% instantly on pensions for a good portion of your income via 40% income tax relief and 12% National Insurance relief. So I'm turning every 48 pence into £1 instantly, and then still getting the benefit of the next 10 years of stock market rises.


If I meet that money at age 55 vs return from property, I think the pension will substantially outweigh the property return, and I can cash in the pension and buy properties then.

christm386:
Check me out, I will take u through the journey, am traveling to Onitsha, chai na alcohol i use do sanitizer.

I hope you know alcohol has to be 60% to be considered as antiviral. Soap would be better than whisky or ogogoro in this circumstance.

afrodoc2:
Pensions savings don shrink here cos of this crisis but i am going to leave mine there cos of the tax benefits you mentioned, and i don’t really need it at this very moment, and importantly you get taxed extra if you try to access it early.

It’s one of my colleagues that I pity. The guy is retiring this year and has been lamenting how his pension savings keep shrinking by the day. I swear that’s all he talks about during coffee breaks.

By the way what is your opinion about investing in property at this time?

Hahahaha. The guy done suffer.

If you have cash, property prices go reduce well well after this. One of my guy going through a divorce already lost almost 10% of his property value in 3 weeks as of two weeks ago. His wife valued it 5 weeks ago, then he valued it 2 weeks ago and £40k was gone off the price. Estate Agent say na Corona cause am.

However, I personally don't believe property gives anywhere near the same returns as tax exemptions on pension unless you are lucky to buy in a place of explosive capital appreciation such as London or Banana Island 10 years.

As long as you plan to live long, the tax exemptions make a private pension by far the best investment option, so far you are happy to live a frugal life till then, and of course they give the money to your family if you die before then. What encouraged me to focus on pension was UK reducing the age you can access your pension to age 55, and with 25% lump sum tax free. I treat it as a very long term bank account that doubles my money instantly. Any stockmarket gains na just jara. I keep no other savings apart from pension and live mostly from month to month, but it be like say this Corona go teach man to always keep some liquid emergency fund.

raumdeuter:
ibime

what is your opinion on maxing 401k contributions? I was seriously for it like 3months ago, but seeing how the market has done in this corona days and how the balance has lost 40% I am wondering if this is wise

I am assuming you know something about it? The IRS makes it tax exempt up to $20k this year

whats a good strategy to come out as winners in this Corona, Assuming there is a global recession and everyone didn't die

I think the market may still fall further depending on how quickly they can find cure for Covid so anything put into 401k could fall in the short term. If in 3 to 6 months, there is no cure on the horizon, markets will get jittery again. The caveat here is your saving on tax exemptions. In UK, pensions contributions are tax-free up to a maximum of £40k which means an instant doubling of cash as you forego paying Income tax and National Insurance on any Gross income you put into pensions. For example, I am maxed out on pension contributions as I get back £1 for every £0.48 I put into pension for the most part.

If IRS is tax free up to $20k, then under normal circumstances, you should aim to put as much of the full amount as you gain $1 for every $0.78 or $.76 put in, depending on your tax bracket. . . . . the stockmarket will have to lose 22% or 24% of it's value to put you in the red as compared to if you took the cash instead of putting in 401k.

However that depends on your personal circumstance and the industry you work in at this time. If you work in an industry that may be affected by this Covid, it may be wise to take the cash rather than invest.

At what age are you guys allowed to access your 401k BTW?

Unlimited22:

NYSC

They go scrap una NYSC and rush you into service if them get sense.

Italys' whole final year Med students got given their degrees and rushed into the field without writing final exams

afrodoc2:
Meanwhile my friend who is deeply involved in the COVID-19 response in the UK says that from their preliminary results Chloroquine is not making significant difference in terms of patient outcomes.

What of the combination with Azimothrycin?

Bear in mind, UK are admitting only at Ventilator stage which may be too late.

One mans virus is another man's visa

Unlimited22, visa done land!

https://www.nairaland.com/5758685/coronavirus-apply-work-visas-usa