₦airaland Forum

Bukasuka:
Afenifere don't have choice jagaban

They may be supporting Atiku

[quote author=Racoon post=97836077]The same Afeniferi he once slighted and polarized into factions? So this baba is still interested in adding to the woes long created with the present unmitigated disaster he foisted on this nation? God no go shame us.[/quote
]
Afenifere should start campaigning for Atiku and allow Tinubu to rest.
Biko!

OfficialAwol:
We are on the same page o!

Because my point too is that no matter how formidable Tinubu thinks he, and his camp, is, he cannot win the APC ticket alone.

He needs some certain kind of consensus with other camps.

But the body language of other camps in the party doesn't seem to be favorable to him.

When alignments and realignments are completed, just like it was done in 1993 and 1999, you'd be surprised that not the most powerful candidate that will win but the candidate that appeals most to the different camps.

Abiola wasn't the most formidable candidate in 1993 nor was Obasanjo in 1999. If anything, Obasanjo was just released from prison. He had no money and no party loyalists but he won. Why? Consensus.

That's what I'm trying to make u understand.

No two elections are exactly alike.

In 1999 PDP primaries, the party was not in Government and it was a newly formed party consisting of different blocks.

You see most of the people who will be delegates (if the present structures are not changed) are career politicians and not social media analysts or newbies.

Formidable politicians like Atiku, Tinubu and to some extent Saraki have their loyalists in every State, across religious, tribal and even party lines. They even buy nomination forms for candidates in APGA, PDP, Labour party, APC. They spend money to send people on pilgrimages to Mecca & Jerusalem, give scholarships, help some people to get jobs, contracts, pay for Legal Fees of people during Tribunals, have their friends/loyalists in the Judiciary, Civil Service, Members of the Diplomatic corps , Military, Media, Religious leaders, Traditional Rulers etc.
All these are important electoral factors in Nigeria.

Buhari doesn't have much friends outside his immediate surroundings and his political career didn't emerge through this conventional political ways and this partly explain why it's easy for him to be unapologetic nepotic.

When the time comes for them to ask for favours, a good number of the people that will be delegates will be their people.

Besides these connection and network of loyalists, another important factor that can swing the pendulum in the favour of a candidate is 'the other contestants'.

What can the other contestants offer? Do most of the delegates hav had any serious relationships with them? Are they crowd pullers?What is their financial war chests? Are there strong contenders who may nullify each other's votes or too many weak candidates?

CSTRR:
He may have a structure but doesn't mean he will always win the PDP primaries.

There is.always a time for everything, and 2023 is not atiku's time.

Well, I share part of your points because my philosophy of powers especially presidential power goes beyond the physical.


I strongly believe that there are spiritual dimensions to powers and a role for destiny. If it's not part of Atiku's or Tinubu's destiny to become president ,they won't be.

However if it's part of their destiny, they will be.

All men are just running the race, but God alone knows the winner.

Psalm 62: 11=> 'God has spoken once, twice I have heard this, that power belongs to God'

Dan 4:17=> '...The most High rules in the Kingdom of Men , giveth to whomever he will and set over it the lowest of men'

OfficialAwol:
I get it.

But APC doesn't start and end in Kano.

Like I've said before, when the forces align, not even a dollar rain will deliver Tinubu or anybody the power brokers do not want.

You are fixated on Tinubu.

I am telling you how delegates emerged.

You see, if there is free and fair elections, it may be difficult for a single power block to determine the winner, this is where consesus work.

The candidate that enjoy support accross the largest groups will win.


In the 1993 SDP primaries, there were 3 formidable camps-
1) The camp of the Governors which supported Baba Gana Kingibe
2) The Yar'Adua camp which supported Atiku following the betrayal of Yar'Adua by Kingibe
3) The neutral members which wanted freedom from Yar'Adua and thus supported Abiola.

At the first round ,Abiola had a simple majority but not up to 60% of the needed votes.

At the second round, the Yar'Adua camp reached an alliance with Abiola to support him so that Atiku should be made the running mate and the alliance worked. Abiola defeated Kingibe.

In protest, the SDP Governors threatened not to work for the party unless Abiola pick their candidate, Kingibe who as the pioneer chairman of the SDP was instrumental to the emergence of most of these Governors.

In the 1999 PDP primaries, Jim Nwobodo went round the convention ground addressing the delegates in Hausa language. He got some votes and even splitted votes from the S/East with Dr Ekwueme.

The rest is history.

OfficialAwol:
I don't understand you asking me about the number of delegates SE APC can muster?

Is every state chapter of the party not supposed to produce the same number of delegates for the party's Primary Election? Or are some states given higher number than others?

Now imagine all delegates of SE and SS voting for a Southeast candidate 100%.

Then Northern delegates, acting on orders from northern power brokers, voting for a Southeast candidate too. Except for maybe delegates from Kano and Yobe who might vote on the basis of 60% to 40% in favor of Tinubu.

Now, Tinubu will be left with only Southwest delegates. But the question is, are SW delegates even assured for him? You know the answer is no.

Ekiti delegates will never vote for Tinubu even if Fayemi is not contesting.

Osun delegates may also not be assured depending of where Aregbesola stands by 2022.

Ondo delegates may also not be 100% for Tinubu when you realize that Akeredolu is not a Tinubu man except for their little romance because of recent election.

So where would Tinubu get the delegates to win?

Your first sentence showed that you don't know how delegates in presidential primaries are chosen.

Let me explain to you.

1) All States have an agreed fixed numbers of delegates e.g 3 elected persons per State.

2) Statutory delegates : this is the game changer.

For instance;

* All Presidential aspirants
* All members of the NWC of the party
*All members of the Board of Trustees
* All elected Government officials of the party e.g LG chairmen, Assembly members, Governors, senators, reps etc.
* Chairmen and secretaries of the party in each State.

In some cases, appointed party leaders like

*Ministers and Ambassadors are also automatic delegates.


Now, in Kano alone, there are 44 LG chairmen, three senators, about 18 Reps, around 30 Assembly members on the platform of the APC ,all of which will be party delegates.



Now unless, there's approachment and re-alignments, it is difficult for New comers in the party to have the support of these long term career politicians.
To get substantial delegate votes from Kano, the Ganduje's camp must endorse your candidancy.

Summary: the States don't have equal numbers of delegates and political gladiators in each State matters.

OfficialAwol:
I don't understand you asking me about the number of delegates SE APC can muster?

Is every state chapter of the party not supposed to produce the same number of delegates for the party's Primary Election? Or are some states given higher number than others?

Now imagine all delegates of SE and SS voting for a Southeast candidate 100%.

Then Northern delegates, acting on orders from northern power brokers, voting for a Southeast candidate too. Except for maybe delegates from Kano and Yobe who might vote on the basis of 60% to 40% in favor of Tinubu.

Now, Tinubu will be left with only Southwest delegates. But the question is, are SW delegates even assured for him? You know the answer is no.

Ekiti delegates will never vote for Tinubu even if Fayemi is not contesting.

Osun delegates may also not be assured depending of where Aregbesola stands by 2022.

Ondo delegates may also not be 100% for Tinubu when you realize that Akeredolu is not a Tinubu man except for their little romance because of recent election.

So where would Tinubu get the delegates to win?

Your first sentence showed that you don't know how delegates in presidential primaries are chosen.

Let me explain to you.

1) All States have an agreed fixed numbers of delegates e.g 3 elected persons per State.

2) Statutory delegates : this is the game changer.

For instance;

* All Presidential aspirants
* All elected Government officials of the party e.g LG chairmen, Assembly members, Governors, senators, reps etc.
* Chairmen and secretaries of the party in each State.

In some cases, appointed party leaders like Ministers and Ambassadors are also automatic delegates.


Now, in Kano alone, there are 44 LG chairmen, three senators, about 18 Reps, around 30 Assembly members on the platform of the APC ,all of which will be party delegates.

CSTRR:
Unless Umahi was promised the apc ticket, then his defection would makes sense.
Otherwise it is stupid politics on his part.

Buhari his best friend will lose relevance once he leaves the presidency in 2-3 years.

He could have been a pdp presidential candidate.

Anyway 2023 promises a lot of action.

How do you think Dave Umahi will be able to defeat Atiku for the PDP ticket? Atiku has better and formidable political structure than anybody in the PDP.

Unless, there's a gang-up by the Governors, there is no strong politician in the PDP that can defeat Atiku.

CalliDora1:
They still want to continue committing crime while doing jail term. SMH.

Sure this ones are willing to change?

So denying them part of their humanity is okay by you? Somebody's sexual needs should be repressed and denied indefinitely because she is serving punishment?


Fear God o

Kriss216:
You wan send your wife alone to Canada


Hope you know what you’re doing.

I don't think he knows.

This is like a man soliciting for men friends for his wife.

donaldwhal:
My brother, it is tougher, securing job from Nigeria to enter Canada EXCEPT if you are into IT and you are a guru. What @Rightsolution was saying is that going thru Europe is like a following a VIP queue at the airport, instead of joining the bandwagon(like that long queue at the airport) of applicants to get to Canada faster.

Applicants from all over the world like India, Philippine, China and Pakistan citizens stand better chances entering Canada than Nigerians. Canada only picks a handful of Nigerians who are applying from Africa. So it is good to start from easier way, most times, that's what @Rightsolution is saying. Come to think of it, you may get to Europe and wouldn't want to go to Canada again, except if you are just visiting. Europe is sweeter and better than Canada and the US combined, especially living in those non native speakers of English countries.

Once you manage to learn their basic languages, you are ok for life. You are surrounded by many countries in Europe that you can travel to either by road, air, rail or water. There are cheap (connecting) flights to Africa from all over Europe. But in Canada, you are only closer to the US and Mexico and all those... counties dem. If you are in Canada, you have to be flying every time you are visiting another county, apart from the US (that's if you choose not to go by road). Life is extremely cheaper in Europe than in Canada. People in Finland go to Estonia to go and buy ordinary alcohol and other cheap household items. You can eat eba (garri) in Germany and go to Sweden to go and wash your hand . You can live under 70 EURO in a month in Estonia and still be extremely fine. With EURO 100 in Poland, you are good to go for a month. You cant try that in Canada.

Global indices every year rate quality of lives in all these Artic, Nordic, Scandinavian, Baltic and Indo-European countries higher than those of North America. Same thing goes for thriving economy. Read more about these countries and see how they are better places to live than Canada: Denmark, Netherlands (Holland), Germany, Iceland, Sweden, Poland, Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Czech Republic. There are others but these are among the topmost countries.

How receptive are these Countries for Nigerians?

What will Nigerians be doing there?

Rightsolution:
While everyone is on queue to move to Canada i call that greed as everyone just want to move directly to a big country as Canada. Canada wants only Elites from Nigeria just the way Universities consider mostly high scorers in Jamb.
The easiest way to move to Canada from Nigeria is to first move out of Nigeria. Move to a better country in Europe and apply from there and trust me once you land in Europe one of your leg is already in Canada.

With this regard we can get you Poland admission in 5 working days or a Poland work permit. Just check my profile and reach out to us.
Only the wise follow shortcuts to get to their destination faster.

Get to Poland as what?
Tourists, Students, Missionaries or as what?

What do Nigerians mostly do in Poland sir?

IamAtikulate:
Other southerners have the same capacity to unite the country.

SW has spent 16 years in the presidency. It is the turn of others.

I am not saying they don't.

If they win fine and if they don't it's also fine.

I am just using hypothetical scenerio of APC/Tinubu or Osinbajo Vs PDP/Atiku.

CalliDora1:
You want to separate mad people on heat? Mad man never bite you before.

2-3 strong men can hold him and bundle him into a vehicle.


The funny thing is that mad people also have sexual desires.


A young man who arrested two years ago when the neighbours noticed that a mad lady always come to visit him in the evening.

Somehow, the mad lady had come to know that her sexual desires can be met by the man and she keeps coming regularly without coercion

Emeraldgreene:
Abeg the man is not mad.. see how neatly he's dressed,white shirt,black jeans,and sandals

He doesn't have to be dirty to be mad.
The woman too is fairly neat.

CalliDora1:
Hey Jesus!

He too is also mad, I guess.

Why are those morons smiling and staring at him instead of planking him hard on his butt? This is not right. This is broad daylight rape and those people seem to be cool about it.

They are all rapist.

But planking him hard on the butt is also wrong.

They should have separated them and take them to a Psychiatric hospital.

mojoyin73585:
I think they are both mad .Lol but how come his own mad man still love Toto like this.Government should do something na,at least pack them commot for street.

Who told you that mad people don't have sexual urge?

Being made doesn't abrogate their normal biological needs.

In the 1990s, one mad woman in Oro, Kwara State used to call on young boys passing bye to come and sleep with her.
Curiously she used to throw small stones at youngladies to scare them away from her.

Bigggloadofcum:


Another deluded fellow.

One impoverished babalawo must have told him that this is the only way to access his hidden treasures.

His imaginary billions starched somewhere underworld.

How can people be so dumb? The person promising to catapult you into a realm of wealth is living in a mud closet and feeding from the little fowl or tubers of yam offered for sacrifice.

A cun man who noticed that things are hard and this is definitely a sure bet to eating three times a day.

And to imagine he dived in without a leather is the height of his foolery. A punna that hasn't seen water for who knows how long? Gross.

People get mind o. But I'd rather be a coward than have this kinda mind.

The man is most likely a mad man himself.
The fact that he is not roaming the street unclad with dirty dreadlocks doesn't mean he is normal.

IamAtikulate:
I am aware of this.

This Atiku don suffer sha - 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019.

We will get right 2023.

I want a credible election.

Any of the party that win will have it's positive impacts for the country.

1) If Atiku/PDP win; it will give the party a rare opportunity of second chance, learn from the mistakes of the past and correct them.
It will also bring the Igbos closer to the centre and help in national healings.


2) If APC/Tinubu or Osinbajo wins, it will help to once again shatter the myth of a southern candidate inability to defeat a Northern candidate which will inspire future Southerners to try their lucks irrespective of whose ox is gored.

Tinubu has a great capacity to unite the country by bringing bright minds together.

IamAtikulate:
The same way GEJ would have won if PDP had gone into the election as one formidable party.

APC North will never work against Kwankwanso, Tambuwal or Atiku for APC southern candidate.

Yes, you now understand my point.

The PDP became fractionalized and eventually splitted into PDP and nPDP.



If we continue to practice this democracy for long ,many myths (including myths that a Southern candidate can't defeat a Northern candidate) will be bursted over and over.



In 2011, the Northern power brokers attempted to stop GEJ from contesting the election.

IBB, Gusau, Saraki and Atiku were all shouting that GEJ should leave the presidential race for them. Later on, they chose 12 wise Northern men led by Mallam Adamu Chiroma to serve as an electoral college and chose one candidate from the North who will enjoy the support of the whole 'North' and challenge GEJ for the PDP ticket.

Atiki was chosen as the 'North's consesus candidate'. There were more presidential delegates from the North.

Do you know the outcome of the primaries?

Atiku only won majority of the delegates in Sokoto, Kano, Niger and Adamawa States.

cktheluckyman:
you people actually believe the North cares about party? You people make me laugh

funny enough if the cars was reversed i.e PDP fields a SWner and the APC a Northerner will the SW still vote for APC?

See elections will be conducted in all the 36 States plus FCT.
Political interests in each State differ. Political interests in Borno State is different from that of Kwara and that of Benue State is different from that Kebbi State.

Try to guess how many votes the PDP will get in each State Vs the APC votes.


If political parties aren't important, politicians will not be decamping and or trying to control party machineries.

IamAtikulate:
Do you honestly think the North will work for APC southern candidate against Atiku?

What exactly do you mean by 'The North'?


The political parties and not regions contest elections.

I believe that the APC still likely to defeat the PDP if they go into the election as one formidable house.

Okay.


What if Dave Umahi didn't win the APC primaries?

IamAtikulate:
El Rufai is the front runner to get the VP ticket, unless you are deceiving yourself. He is not popular in the South but among Moslem North.

I don't know any southern politician who can defeat Atiku as of today. His only match would have been Tinibu but the guy's influence cannot be projected outside his SW base.

Atiku has influence in the North, SS, SE and SW. In the last election, even with an Igbo VP he only lost SW to Buhari with 200k votes.

If Atiku runs against Tinubu even North APC will work against Tinubu the same way PDP North worked against GEJ.

Let be truthful here, I am an avid Umahi 2023 Project, but AtikuObi on the ballot is capable of whatever APC throws up.

The next INEC Chair should have been a Yoruba man but why did Buhari reappointed a Northerner? something that has never happened before.

The North is scared of relinquishing power, not because they don't want to but because they are afraid of their shadows and antecedents they set with their nepotism.

A Southern president will give them a little taste of what Buhari gave to the South. They will revise all those appointments Buahri made.

A person like Tinubu will consolidate Southern hold on the presidency and relegate the North. A northern might become president ooh, but it will be under Southern hold, like he is doing in Lagos.

Like I told my friend yesterday, Tinubu is a smart politician and knows how to place his people strategically.
I even told him, that the only thing stopping Tinubu from being president is his religion.

If he is a Christian, no power in hell can stop him from ruling country. If he is a Christian, he would have been our VP and he would have put this marauding Fulani cabals at check.

He will never allow Kyari to highjack the government. He would have been the one ruling this country and effectively commanding our armed forces while Buhari only answers C-in-C

If Tinubu is a kind of guy that carries every tribe in the South along, we would have supported him overwhelmingly in 2023 no matter his religion.

He has the political will to break Northern hegemony and force them to live like proper humans but he is too hateful of Ndi Igbo.

He has never shown he could be trusted. Nobody trusts him, not his brothers, not the East and not the North.

Aside his greediness, he is everything we need as a president but he sees Ndi Igbo to be tactically at war with him.

FACT.

My mention is now open for your wailing.

In summary, do you honestly that the APC will lose the 2023 presidential election and Atiku/PDP will win?

SilverNorGold:
The ticket should be given to only Governor Dave Umahi (President) and Governor El-rufai (Vice President)..

OTHERWISE, our beloved father, President Muhammadu Buhari should go for 3rd term to consolidate his achievements. But if President Buhari rejects the offer, then let God Almighty rule over us. No human should be allowed anywhere near Aso Rock!

God bless Nigeria.

With this arrangement (giving of tickets), Atiku/PDP will beat them silly besides no serious presidential candidate will make someone like El-Rufai his running mate. He will rock the boat.

It's even better for El-Rufai to run for the presidency himself.

If however, Gov Dave Umahi contest and win majority of the votes of the delegates, he may have some sympathy votes.

cktheluckyman:
The candidate the majority of the party wants will be elected and not necessarily from the region it is zoned to.Tinubu only has control on some of the SW delegates(Ekiti not even included)

BTW I dont even see zoning work.The contest will eventually be thrown to all.

How did you manage to drag Tinubu into the matter? What if Tinubu drops dead today, do you think the issues of zoning will not continued to be discussed?

In any case which candidate do you think will win the APC primaries?

Harrynight:



Apc presidential ticked will be zoned to the South but All eligible and qualified candidate from the North can contest the primary!

There is nothing new or special in the statement.

In 1999, Abubakar Rimi was contesting the PDP primaries but he later backed out when he saw the body language of the party's stakeholders.
In 2003, both Rimi and Gemade contested the PDP primaries but they lost.
In 2007, Rochas Okorocha came second after Yar'Adua in the PDP primaries

In 2011, Atiku Abubakar was chosen as the 'North's consesus candidate' to slug it out with GEJ but he lost.


In the 2014 APC primaries, Gov Rochas Okorocha contested the APC primaries.

Miracle1991:
as far as we are in democracy the north will always win. They have the number.

Not exactly true.

Check the results of 1993,2003 and 2011 elections

Igbochief001:
You are saying Igbos don't have a strong candidate ? Lmao that's funny

Name the candidate you have been really support for and want other stakeholders in the parties to step down for.

Tareq1105:
You lied. Pls stop misinforming the public.

Olusola Saraki was in ANPP until 2002 when he joined PDP.

I never said he left the APP in 1999. He did anti-party by campaigning openly for Obasanjo and asking his supporters to work against the APP in the election.

After the election, Sen Mahmud Waziri had a running battle with Saraki worsened by another betrayal of Saraki by the party in not supporting Saraki to force Sen Ishaq Salman to step down from the Senate and pave way for Saraki to contest as a Senator culminating in the appointmwnt of Chief Alani Bankole as the interim chairman.

Sen(Dr) Olushola Saraki did much for the APP but felt unappreciated.

Later on, Saraki attempted to hijack the APP by sponsoring Yusuf Ali as the Chairman of the APC but Ali refused to do his biddings and not helping him to deal with Gov Mohammed Lawal of Kwara State.
Eventually Saraki was expelled from the APP in 2002 but he got wind of the expulsion and he quickly rendered his resignation letter from the party and moved to the PDP , hijacked the PDP Kwara State Structure and installed his son as the Governor of Kwara State.

chukwuaustin:
No it no longer a matter of efulefu or lufulefu it's a challenge tell kanu to accept the challenge because Kanu was born after Umuahia was conquered by the Nigerians forces let us all prove his paternity.. some one has volunteered to go in with him and we should encourage it not abuse it.. it has nothing to do with Biafran Struggle it is only for us to be sure that Nnamdi kanu is an Igbo Man. No sane Igbo Man should object to it.

Terrible things happen during wars. I once sat beside one of the old Biafran soldiers who was my late father's aquintance. He told me that his platoon once ate Humanbeings to survive.

Actually some of the people born around Umuayah during the civil were products of Nigerian soldiers sleeping with women of the conquered territories.
Some Biafran female soldiers even begged NIgerian soldiers to sleep with them and spare their lives!