₦airaland Forum

jideflash:
Oh boy it was an interesting experience. Unfortunately i came 4th out of 5 nominees in the election of Audit committee members, with the top three selected.
Nothing really new were disclosed today at the AGM even though some strong questions were asked by some Shareholders.
About the Caverton / Osibanjo incident, the Chairman said they cant discuss on the matter as AIB is still investigating. I believe this accident report will be a determiner on Insurance claim or maintenance cost.

Then, there was abit of unruly behavior by hungry shareholders who were majority in attendance, over the sharing of Gift bags. There was so much shouting and pushing, at a time it was like a stampede sef. I totally agree with SEC on the ban of Gift sharing at AGMs. This gifts only attract shameless fellows who careless about the company (as they dont own tangible units of shares) and neither do they contribute meaningful questions and suggestions. They want the AGM end so fast (without grilling the management and board), so they can get the gifts and go to the next event.

Na so one of them come meet me, said; sorry i didnt win the vote, but i should buy him recharge card, and whenever i want to run again, he will help me organise people to vote for me at a fee. He also said he came from Ondo for the AGMs. So basically, it has turn to some Inec vote buying thing.

Kudos to you sir better luck next time, but if i may ask how did you got nominated?

aremso:
dont also forget that dangcem dividend qualification date is 3rd June 2019

i have been wondering what the cause is

Thank you sharp man. it is apparently to create room for mark down after adjustment

aremso:
On May 16th the Nigerian Stock Exchange welcomed a big elephant into the bourse. MTN with a market cap of about N1.8 trillion was expected to inject positive activity and attention for the stock market badly in need of one.

Three days later and it is doing the exact opposite. Investors are frustrated because they cannot lay their hands on the stock and stockbrokers are reeling because buy or sell losing a huge opportunity to earn some fees. Of all the people seething from the MTN listing, another group and perhaps the former king of the blocks may have a lot more to complain about.

FUGAZ Performance since MTN Listing
Date FBNH UBA GT Bank Access Zenith
May 20th 2019 7.0 6.0 30.4 6.1 19.7
May 17th 2019 7.0 6.0 30.6 6.5 19.6
May 16th 2019 7.0 6.0 31.0 6.5 19.6
May 15th 2019 7.3 6.0 31.6 6.8 20.0
May 14th 2019 7.3 6.2 31.6 6.8 20.0
May 13th 2019 7.5 6.0 31.0 6.7 19.7
May 10th 2019 7.3 6.5 32.0 7.1 20.0


FUGAZ get toasted: Nigeria’s top 5 banks, FBN, UBA, GT Bank, Access Bank, and Zenith Bank have collected borne the brunch of MTN’s listing. Since the 16th, all 5 stocks have either lost or stayed relatively flat. Investors are not just interested in paying a sizeable premium for the stocks not with MTN in town. Some market analysts believe investors are offloading their positions to get liquidity to invest in MTN. Though there is no evidence to support this, the reasoning is not far fetched.

.

If this analysis is true then those selling FUGAZ are just cowards cos i expect that by now they wld have driven the price to 20% div yield (zenith/15-16; Guaranty 25-26; UBA 4-5) and go use the proceeds to bid MTNN to 200. i dont know the kind of investors dem be. just afraid to put their money where their mouth is.

once again i beg them in the name of all things they hold dear, they should stop dragging their foot and help drive prices of the FUGAZ down to 20% div yield it is only then i wld believe they are lion hearted.

in any case i no kuku need much it is just some single digit fraction of Afolabi unit of each i am looking to buy. so i am begging them they shld please help my ministry fast fast

RabbiDoracle:
I agree with you on the capital flight conspiracy.

Where I don't agree with you is that even if stock falls, whether companies will revaluate their Dividend yields. Fall in the stock market has no effect on the top and bottom lines of companies.

BTW, why STANBİC was not part of the participating banks in the N200b loan?

My Oga Once again you proved that you pay great attention to details

bolded was the first thing that gave me concern

And should raise a red flag with the participating banks

OakPearl:
Someone just stumped up N2.7bn for 25m MTNN.
Raw!

mayb d dozies to pick more of access

Mcy56:
The earlier those queuing up for mtn face reality that they cant get to buy, the earlier they moved those funds to other stocks and allow bull run.

you are a spoil sport oooooo. y do u want them to face reality

i beg make them no face am. make them offload ALL there other stocks to go and queue to buy MTN

robobo:
They should bring it on

they shld help push Zenith towards 15/16
push UBA towards 4/5
GTB25/27

I beg them in the name of all things they hold dear they should do it quickly biko

These MTN bidders are falling my hand ooooooooooooooo

i beg first thing tomorrow they shld up the bid to about 500m units ooooooo and back it up with cash

so that NSE can be very cash starved in other to facilitate the prices qouted above

Again im begging them in the name of all things they hold dear

because unlike them im OK with a div yield of 20% (im not really a greedy person) for the near future and those prices wld surely do it for me

Mcy56:
This dumping no get part two o. People selling to enter MTN?

They should bring it on

they shld help push Zenith towards 15/16
push UBA towards 4/5
GTB25/27

I beg them in the name of all things they hold dear they should do it quickly biko

DeRuggedProf:
The greatest weapon against the stock market is GOODLUCK'S wife.
[b]Impatience can make you pay people their dividend for the next 10yrs upfront, then become their AMCON... ;[/b]D

My Prof i really missed you

why did u abandon us ur student naaaa

i beg no go on AWOL again oooooo

austinkenneth:
Yesterday I went searching for info on the previous divestment of Dangote from this company.

Tiger brands bought 63% of the shares of this company at $182m--> $289m for 100% of the company (NB: this is equity value)


Now Olam is offering N130bn enterprise value. This is estimated to be adjusted down equity value of N126bn ($350m) from the calculations on this forum.


Now the question I asked myself is: If Alhaji accepted and equivalence of $289m in 2012 for 100% of the company, why would he reject $350m for the same company in 2019 ( CAGR~3%) after getting the same company back from Tiger Brands in 2015 under very favourable terms (for ~$77m)?

Now this is hard fact and i love the angle.

its another perspective particularly when he had already sold some part (noodles) even before accepting the $350m which means he is overall getting above $400m for the $77 he invested

stcool:
I appreciate you and Oga robobo contribution on this issue... My mind is rest assured I am on the right course with my investment in DF.

Chief its reciprocal i have had the cause to learn today also from Oga Oracle. We all do everyday and that is what makes us better person every single day that passed by.

Agbalowomeri:
In summary buy with the mindset of a fundamentalist Lol
Sell with the mindset of a trader

succint summary

onegentleguy:
Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
It's just like doubting wheather Alhaji D did give his backing after the same coy, DF officially announced the sale of its noodles arm of business to Difil Prima(makers of indomie)
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

i dont have the above bolded info (and same is not in public domain) and that is why i called for caution (in anyway i am still sourcing for it also). if i have it then as stated it stop being a shares and become a fixed deposit. As for public statement by the coy sec and cfo dont forget that they are regulatory required to release any takeover bid received to the public by SEC / NSE rules. whether the bid was assented to by the target company is of no consequence to the regulatory required disclosure

RabbiDoracle:
I don go write epistle

My Oga na me you write am for and i am more than grateful cos it affords me an opportunity to see the working of another mind on same subject which is quite invaluable / priceless

once again thank you i appr8

onegentleguy:
Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

Chief i am not Alhaji and i dont have that information so from the night school that i went to i was taught to err on the side of caution by assuming the WORST CASE SCENARIO. (particularly if it is my money or entrusted money that is involved).

moreso the example of southafrica that i gave involved the same Alhaji though as a bidder

so you can make your own conclusion from all the information. i only stated what i know and can deduce / Synthesize from information in public domain

stcool:
True talk, but why would Alhaji reject N26.00 from Olams, he is loosing the market and Olams can't wait to take over DF, they highlited it again recently in their parent company YR end remarks. Meanwhile we wait to see.

.

From the little i know of Dangflour vis a vis the bid i think the deal breaker / maker wld be the access to the port / sea that Olam wanted along with the company.

why above might be a dealbreaker is as follow

Does Alhaji currently have any other port / sea Access apart from that of DangFlour? i think yes cos i know Cement also have a terminal

would Alhaji want a premium for the port sea Access considering that Olam does not presently have same and wld kill to have it (due to there overall business and not only flour). i think so, so the final question is how badly does Olam want it? Remember that Alhaji is a Shark and he already knows how badly Olam want that port access.

you can conclude the rest on your own

stcool:
If it is N26 and above... I will make a kill. If it about waiting for payment. I base in Lagos I go pack to the registrars office and I sabi shout well o! dem go think say na be the highest shareholder!

Anyways at this price, I am willing to wait. Where am I rushing to?

its not only about waiting (that is the lesser risk)

the Major Risk is Alhaji rejecting the offer then u wld be left with an empty shell cos the company had been loss making of recent then the price cld even plunge to sub 6 which was the last strong support

so LOOK WELL at your RISK before u park ur fortune inside ooooooo

like is said i have some unit which if thing go awry might be painful but wnt kill me

i wld rather w8 to get more hint that Alhaji had accepted the offer b4 i wld park a fortune inside the thing because at that point it take on the xterictics of a fixed deposit

stcool:
My Oga,
No be say I must buy o! But this MTN listing be like NAHCO that year. The money I made from the IPO, bonus and price appreciation that record is hard

I will try my luck tomorrow, if I no see buy I go wait. Meanwhile Oga abeg help me look DF well, the way I dey load am fear they catch me.

I am confident of N21-N25 or is there anything I am missing. If Olam can pay that I will be almost OK for the year.

i think ur figure is correct going by current financials

where the risk is largely situated is if Alhaji does not accept the offer or ask for higher price and olam rejected (note it is only the N26 that is binding on Olam) if u also rememeber something similar happened to Alhaji of recent when he made a binding offer for a cement coy / plant on southafrica and the coy requested for higher pricing which Alhaji did not agree with hence the deal failed.

a lesser risk is that of long drawn / prolonged payment even if the deal scales through.

i think this two risk is what is being priced in and why the price on NSE is not closing in on the N21-25

so the question for you wld be how SURE are you that Alhaji wld accept the N26 / N130b offer

and are you ready to wait for the prolonged period before the cash is paid if the deal scales through? (particulary in this period of cash being king?)

N.b im a foot deep so my view might be tinted / biased

RabbiDoracle:
Yes o.

And with the way the market is, there is money everywhere. So keep packing. And when the oyibos wake up, you will be in Bora Bora sending your sell mandates and sipping coconut water. Don't forget your sunglasses then

My Oga i ask a question of u some moons back but didnt get a response

what metrics do u use to measure when price had gone ahead of value

i presently use 5 year average p/bv though it had failed me on some few occassions so i am looking to compare

RabbiDoracle:
Your call on leaving it alone is the same I have.

In the Serengeti the best catch is gotten when you stalk and Chase with all animals unaware.

Now everyone is looking and wanting to jump in. I usually stay out.

People can make money from the stock but there are other tested companies out there trading at a discount. I cannot come and kill myself.

My Oga like Mendes wld say im an old man and i dont have d strength to struggle with agile and able bodied men (whether to enter or to exit)

My preference is for slow and steady not fast and furious.

The thing about life (which the NSE completely mirrors) is that it always present ENOUGH opportunity. if u miss one just wait PATIENTLY and be PREPARED for the next one, for it wld come sooner than you think.

RabbiDoracle:
Don't mind him.

Q1 2019 PAT was N48.4b.

Try and extrapolate this to 4 quarters. And it could come lower possibly.

I don't do IPO. I wish people can learn from times before 2008 crash.

But wetin concern me. No be my money!

with a FY2018 PAT of N145b and 1st quarter of N48b extrapolating, the best that could come from MTNN FY2019 wld be N200b which wld give EPS of N10 which gives P/ E ratio of 9, with a payout ratio of 80% dat is N8/ share at introductory price of N90 gives a dividend yield of 8.88%, the PBV while not available wld not look good also considering that the company is quite leveraged due to easy access to debt (probably one of the best entity any bank in Nigeria can lend to presently)and hence it is exposed to easy and favourable credit terms.

In view of the fact that the above figures qouted are the best estimate (which means the figure can only get worse and not better) then in my opinion the price of N90 had already priced in ALL FAVOURABLE FACTORS.

The rational decision (from fundamental perspective) wld be to leeave the thing alone becos there are other well tested shares in the market with more favourable metrics like div yield of 14%, p/bv less than 1, P/E of sub 5, and also favourable liquidity.

However i think from technical / jijo perspective it wld be a good one considering the hype and sentiment surrounding it

Finally personally i would take the advise of one prof here who said it is a dangerous venture to pursue a moving train.

my prayer is that the listing should bring in more players to the NSE which could possibly rub off on other shares

pluto09:
I cannot understand while all this analysts are so fixated on EBITDA.

What I want to know is PAT, eps and p.e.
With that I will be able to do my own assessment of the right value for mtn.

God bless u plenty why make something so simple complex

we call it bamboozing

Agbalowomeri:
Reporter robobo reporting life from the battle field

My Oga abi weting we go do naaaa

this battle is sweet to watch particularly from the sideline if u a not the one whose nose is being bloodied

The battle of May currently going on in 4D

UBA wall of 6.20 perished with only one nuclear shot of 8m unit by the bears next wall to test is 6

Zenith wall of 20 perished with several pellet by the bears next wall is 19.85

This battle field is holding no hostages

The bull of the FUGAZ had been holding its wall above 31 all day which might point to diminishing power from the bear

the battle field of 12-1 seems to be coming to an end with what cld be a stalemate

next battle field is 2-2.20

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

God Bless you plenty for this thorough and unbiased analysis

wish there could be more of same on other counters so pple can make more informed decision

BrokerHaruna:
If the sell pressure on UBA continues as, it may hover between 4 to 5 naira this week. TA shows sustained bear regime. Scary

i beg make he quickly reach there

u fit help push am towards d price target

RabbiDoracle:
More people should sell below 6.

People should position for year end. 85 Kobo / less than N6 gives a good DY

Thank you sellers. Sell more tomorrow @ N5.4

you are definitely a bad somebody

stcool:
And you believe a fake news that did not come out until CBN governor was nominated for a second term, you think Buhari will listen to that Bullshit.

Una go dey alright las las.

There is no linkages between this market and CBN news but pple cld choose to belive what they want to believe

The NSE had detach away from so many of its traditional anchor (oil price / budget release/ company result e.t.c) the only thing it respond to nowadays is news at it impact individual stock (a l dangflour/transcorp e.t.c). That is what makes the whole thing scary. i dont think things wld get better until it attach back to an anchor (probably volume on the I&E window)

OakPearl:
All that is happening is typical of the stock market all over the world.
It is the market manifesting a mind of its own that we all should be used to.
Nothing new.
If you are a jijoist, hold break.
If you are a long term investor, food don done.
Oyonburu na turn by turn.

i would even advise long termers to hold still or at best test waters with a foot (and not even leg) one after d other cos Technically the fall from this 28k level is quite steep (arnd 25-26). This kind of fall wld require the heavies (Dangcem/ Nestle/ FUGAZ e.t.c) to still shed substantially (10-15%) from current level to attain that (25-26k) though if 28k hold we might see substantial climb also.


N.B i am a novice on the technicals above is just my interpretation of what i am seeing on the chart

tritritri:
better rain ooh....everyone is no where to be found.

My broda the rain is still heavy im waiting for it to slow down to drizzling so i can enter and get wet a little bit because if one enter this heavy one the kindly cold wey go catch person no go be small.

its raining

The Lion in the FUGAZ is still reeling from bear attack so i wld tread cautiously until it roars back at the bears