₦airaland Forum

DeRuggedProf:
when there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel, its the right time for tigers to go hunting...
I love to start buying at periods of high uncertainty, when there is no piece of good news anywhere...

My Prof that is why i said "slow down a little bit" and not stop.

That a season is perilous does not mean it wld not come with its own bounty, one should just be more careful because it is perilous, carefulness does not equate to halt, it (carefulness) only means PROCEED with caution

Theresa May Resigns, Brexit comes into focus again

Anti Europe / right wing tending towards majority in European Parliament

Escalation of USA / China Trade wars

Dark clouds over Global Economy

Time to slowdown a little cause things might get a little bit worse before it get better (as it would surely do)

rebekah2011:
When you have a Governor of CBN talking like this, you know that there is a problem. TBs even though are bought majorly by the banks, the bulk of it relates to the deposit of the customers. If you restrict access to TB's for the banks, you are simply shutting the door to their customers. You cannot force banks to lend scarce resources to serial debtors that will refuse to pay back.

Now this is the kind of news i could be afraid of

RabbiDoracle:
Are you one and the same person?

My Oga why are you disturbing ursef naaaa

make the capitulation come quick naaaa

or u no wan make money niiiiiii

RabbiDoracle:
That means you bought high in UCAP.

yes my oga some long moons back. i have cycle two dividend though

na greed no let me go out when it went 4 ish some few moons ago

but in this we learn everyday. Another lesson under the belt. which is that i shld get a BETTER grip of my emotions (greed/fear) when it come to this business

OakPearl:

AT this rate, another type of greed sets in saying "wait small for further downward spiraling or buy 'small, small'"!
While you are at that, 2 things are likely:
1. The cookies keep crumbling and you serve yourself delightedly
or
2. Upward swing and your case becomes "Had I known"

My Oga dont take your eye away from the prize

2 above would only happen to you if u take your eye away from the prize. The prize for me is the div yield (the capital appreciation only makes my div yield come EARLY if it happens) hence i wld continue to buy small small as long as all indicators continue to point to d fact that the div yield wld be met, if fund finish buying small small so be it. because fishing bottom is a very elusive game

RabbiDoracle:
Zenith nearing 18.

Market has become " aturu ta ba".

Food everywhere. Serve yourself!

ataba turu
Egun oniko
Osha Apena

My Broda na really Buffet (alias serve ursef)

i am getting the beating of my life from UCAP but nothing do me

OakPearl:
If you must take foreign loan, don't play the NSE with it.
Two options:
1. Play the NYSE
OR
2. Play Eurobond @ 9-10% coupon rates.

Baba in addition, i wld say if u a going to play NSE look at the possibility of buying FX forwards (dont know if it is open to individuals) to hedge the risk of currency volatility that u a wary of

the number 2 though is quite preferable because at cost of 4% your transaction wld only become a carry trade (of 5% net) in same currency so no currency risk

DeRuggedProf:
The opposite is most likely.
Money will be freed to chase other stocks.
Where do you think 'excess' of the money made is going?
Brokers will first flood the market with offers where they want to enter and scare people to bring out volume.
Brokers will soon start preaching valuations where they entered for a second round of dumping, then go back to MTNN....
That is how the game is played.
Watch out for stocks that pay interim dividend, harvest time is not too far.
They will wait patiently and pump them....

My Prof once again i beg u in d name of God dont go on Awol again ooooooooo

OakPearl:

Funny bro.
Scooped some at the bolded though.
Wetin concern me?

my broda nothing do you i scooped some zenith at 19.75 some few days ago too nevetheless they shld do quick like i said and let us hit the 20% div yield target quick quick

Jejebabaa:
If this market should remain low like this till Jul, i will be one of the most happiest guy on NSEMPA. I am planning to get a foreign loan at 4% interest rate the major risk to it is devaluation. I must not miss this opportunity oo.

my oga i beg show me d way to this foreign loan

Devaluation like i said earlier is out of the table for now (at least 6 month - 1 year)

most foreign media/ analyst already posit that the Naira is fairly valued at present coupled with a war chest of $45b put the stability of naira in the near to medium time in good stead

the major RISK to above is if the rate in fixed income space crashed which with current inflation uptrend starting this month looks unlikely. this is so because a cumulative of of btw $10-20b inflow came in just after the election and all those fund were largely channeled to fixed income instruments, so if rate crashed in that space the funds wld be looking at flowing out again which would surely pressured the Naira but as i said earlier that is highly unlikely with current economic realities

Jejebabaa:
I am so happy with the way the market is tanking, my only prayer is that, there should not be currency devaluation. If there is no currency devaluation, then this market crash is a great opportunity for wealth transfer.

God bless you plentyful my Oga

as for devaluation there is nothing like that

the worst that could happen in that space is CONVERGENCE. That is current govt official rate move from 306 to joining other rates (nafex/ parrelel/ i&e) at 360, which effectively means for the market everything would remain the same cos the 306 is only being used by government for its own transactions, in a way it could even be more beneficial for the the market cos it wld mean government wld have more spending power naira wise

OakPearl:
We have heard enough of these alarms.
Markets will keep crashing and rising at intervals all over the world.
Nobody will die.
Relax and do what's best for your portfolio.
Wealth transfer is going on for those who will.
No need for creating panic.

My Oga u dey fall my hand oooooo

why are you bothering ursef whether there is panic creation?

im even disappointed in those creating the panic that they are not doing enough

they shld do more by letting us get to 20% div yield quickly. zenith at 19.05 / UBA at 5.70/ GTB at 31 is still very far from this target (20% div yield) so i am disappointed that it is taking them centuries to achieve this little milestone.

They shld do quick biko. they shld push d prices of these counters to 20% div yield. then we can start talking if there is panic creation or not as at this junction they have not done enough at all.

locodemy:
Leadership tussle.........They need to mentain market leadeing by capitalization.

Mtn must work extra hard to take over.....

Another good perspective

Yayira:
GBAM! Mtn wisest of them all.. first introduce the stock before ipo and hid shares under one mtn international.. they should have asked mtn nigeria to float nothing less than 5 billion since they want to do introduction before ipo..

but why all of una dey castigate MTN naaaaa

Na typical Nigerian culture to do introduction/ engagement before marriage (ipo) naaaa

dem just dey learn our culture fast fast

i beg make una leave dem alone joorrr

OBAGADAFFI:
Well, they will the collect money from Nigerian Banks to pay the Nigerian Government.

Sad.

That is what we call " Government money in Government House" --- Barkin Zuwo

jideflash:
Oh boy it was an interesting experience. Unfortunately i came 4th out of 5 nominees in the election of Audit committee members, with the top three selected.
Nothing really new were disclosed today at the AGM even though some strong questions were asked by some Shareholders.
About the Caverton / Osibanjo incident, the Chairman said they cant discuss on the matter as AIB is still investigating. I believe this accident report will be a determiner on Insurance claim or maintenance cost.

Then, there was abit of unruly behavior by hungry shareholders who were majority in attendance, over the sharing of Gift bags. There was so much shouting and pushing, at a time it was like a stampede sef. I totally agree with SEC on the ban of Gift sharing at AGMs. This gifts only attract shameless fellows who careless about the company (as they dont own tangible units of shares) and neither do they contribute meaningful questions and suggestions. They want the AGM end so fast (without grilling the management and board), so they can get the gifts and go to the next event.

Na so one of them come meet me, said; sorry i didnt win the vote, but i should buy him recharge card, and whenever i want to run again, he will help me organise people to vote for me at a fee. He also said he came from Ondo for the AGMs. So basically, it has turn to some Inec vote buying thing.

Kudos to you sir better luck next time, but if i may ask how did you got nominated?

aremso:
dont also forget that dangcem dividend qualification date is 3rd June 2019

i have been wondering what the cause is

Thank you sharp man. it is apparently to create room for mark down after adjustment

aremso:
On May 16th the Nigerian Stock Exchange welcomed a big elephant into the bourse. MTN with a market cap of about N1.8 trillion was expected to inject positive activity and attention for the stock market badly in need of one.

Three days later and it is doing the exact opposite. Investors are frustrated because they cannot lay their hands on the stock and stockbrokers are reeling because buy or sell losing a huge opportunity to earn some fees. Of all the people seething from the MTN listing, another group and perhaps the former king of the blocks may have a lot more to complain about.

FUGAZ Performance since MTN Listing
Date FBNH UBA GT Bank Access Zenith
May 20th 2019 7.0 6.0 30.4 6.1 19.7
May 17th 2019 7.0 6.0 30.6 6.5 19.6
May 16th 2019 7.0 6.0 31.0 6.5 19.6
May 15th 2019 7.3 6.0 31.6 6.8 20.0
May 14th 2019 7.3 6.2 31.6 6.8 20.0
May 13th 2019 7.5 6.0 31.0 6.7 19.7
May 10th 2019 7.3 6.5 32.0 7.1 20.0


FUGAZ get toasted: Nigeria’s top 5 banks, FBN, UBA, GT Bank, Access Bank, and Zenith Bank have collected borne the brunch of MTN’s listing. Since the 16th, all 5 stocks have either lost or stayed relatively flat. Investors are not just interested in paying a sizeable premium for the stocks not with MTN in town. Some market analysts believe investors are offloading their positions to get liquidity to invest in MTN. Though there is no evidence to support this, the reasoning is not far fetched.

.

If this analysis is true then those selling FUGAZ are just cowards cos i expect that by now they wld have driven the price to 20% div yield (zenith/15-16; Guaranty 25-26; UBA 4-5) and go use the proceeds to bid MTNN to 200. i dont know the kind of investors dem be. just afraid to put their money where their mouth is.

once again i beg them in the name of all things they hold dear, they should stop dragging their foot and help drive prices of the FUGAZ down to 20% div yield it is only then i wld believe they are lion hearted.

in any case i no kuku need much it is just some single digit fraction of Afolabi unit of each i am looking to buy. so i am begging them they shld please help my ministry fast fast

RabbiDoracle:
I agree with you on the capital flight conspiracy.

Where I don't agree with you is that even if stock falls, whether companies will revaluate their Dividend yields. Fall in the stock market has no effect on the top and bottom lines of companies.

BTW, why STANBİC was not part of the participating banks in the N200b loan?

My Oga Once again you proved that you pay great attention to details

bolded was the first thing that gave me concern

And should raise a red flag with the participating banks

OakPearl:
Someone just stumped up N2.7bn for 25m MTNN.
Raw!

mayb d dozies to pick more of access

Mcy56:
The earlier those queuing up for mtn face reality that they cant get to buy, the earlier they moved those funds to other stocks and allow bull run.

you are a spoil sport oooooo. y do u want them to face reality

i beg make them no face am. make them offload ALL there other stocks to go and queue to buy MTN

robobo:
They should bring it on

they shld help push Zenith towards 15/16
push UBA towards 4/5
GTB25/27

I beg them in the name of all things they hold dear they should do it quickly biko

These MTN bidders are falling my hand ooooooooooooooo

i beg first thing tomorrow they shld up the bid to about 500m units ooooooo and back it up with cash

so that NSE can be very cash starved in other to facilitate the prices qouted above

Again im begging them in the name of all things they hold dear

because unlike them im OK with a div yield of 20% (im not really a greedy person) for the near future and those prices wld surely do it for me

Mcy56:
This dumping no get part two o. People selling to enter MTN?

They should bring it on

they shld help push Zenith towards 15/16
push UBA towards 4/5
GTB25/27

I beg them in the name of all things they hold dear they should do it quickly biko

DeRuggedProf:
The greatest weapon against the stock market is GOODLUCK'S wife.
[b]Impatience can make you pay people their dividend for the next 10yrs upfront, then become their AMCON... ;[/b]D

My Prof i really missed you

why did u abandon us ur student naaaa

i beg no go on AWOL again oooooo

austinkenneth:
Yesterday I went searching for info on the previous divestment of Dangote from this company.

Tiger brands bought 63% of the shares of this company at $182m--> $289m for 100% of the company (NB: this is equity value)


Now Olam is offering N130bn enterprise value. This is estimated to be adjusted down equity value of N126bn ($350m) from the calculations on this forum.


Now the question I asked myself is: If Alhaji accepted and equivalence of $289m in 2012 for 100% of the company, why would he reject $350m for the same company in 2019 ( CAGR~3%) after getting the same company back from Tiger Brands in 2015 under very favourable terms (for ~$77m)?

Now this is hard fact and i love the angle.

its another perspective particularly when he had already sold some part (noodles) even before accepting the $350m which means he is overall getting above $400m for the $77 he invested

stcool:
I appreciate you and Oga robobo contribution on this issue... My mind is rest assured I am on the right course with my investment in DF.

Chief its reciprocal i have had the cause to learn today also from Oga Oracle. We all do everyday and that is what makes us better person every single day that passed by.

Agbalowomeri:
In summary buy with the mindset of a fundamentalist Lol
Sell with the mindset of a trader

succint summary

onegentleguy:
Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
It's just like doubting wheather Alhaji D did give his backing after the same coy, DF officially announced the sale of its noodles arm of business to Difil Prima(makers of indomie)
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

i dont have the above bolded info (and same is not in public domain) and that is why i called for caution (in anyway i am still sourcing for it also). if i have it then as stated it stop being a shares and become a fixed deposit. As for public statement by the coy sec and cfo dont forget that they are regulatory required to release any takeover bid received to the public by SEC / NSE rules. whether the bid was assented to by the target company is of no consequence to the regulatory required disclosure

RabbiDoracle:
I don go write epistle

My Oga na me you write am for and i am more than grateful cos it affords me an opportunity to see the working of another mind on same subject which is quite invaluable / priceless

once again thank you i appr8

onegentleguy:
Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

Chief i am not Alhaji and i dont have that information so from the night school that i went to i was taught to err on the side of caution by assuming the WORST CASE SCENARIO. (particularly if it is my money or entrusted money that is involved).

moreso the example of southafrica that i gave involved the same Alhaji though as a bidder

so you can make your own conclusion from all the information. i only stated what i know and can deduce / Synthesize from information in public domain

stcool:
True talk, but why would Alhaji reject N26.00 from Olams, he is loosing the market and Olams can't wait to take over DF, they highlited it again recently in their parent company YR end remarks. Meanwhile we wait to see.

.

From the little i know of Dangflour vis a vis the bid i think the deal breaker / maker wld be the access to the port / sea that Olam wanted along with the company.

why above might be a dealbreaker is as follow

Does Alhaji currently have any other port / sea Access apart from that of DangFlour? i think yes cos i know Cement also have a terminal

would Alhaji want a premium for the port sea Access considering that Olam does not presently have same and wld kill to have it (due to there overall business and not only flour). i think so, so the final question is how badly does Olam want it? Remember that Alhaji is a Shark and he already knows how badly Olam want that port access.

you can conclude the rest on your own