₦airaland Forum

jamace:
I tell you. Some people are LOADING it.

and some pple are OFFLOADING IT
those are crosses and not on the open market
and its takes two to make a market

RabbiDoracle:
Fed rate cut is being priced in.

Emerging Markets stock boom especially with markets with very low valuations.

My Oga if the cut is made it wld only be 50% gone

another prayer wld b dat the the yield chasers look the side of equity when they come otherwise we wld still be on a long thing (just as happend with the tranche that came in just after election >4b)

the other 50% wld b CBN lowering rate (which is very hazy for now)

robobo:
wale wld eventually get an injunction against the interim management because the SEC require a court order to do same which i doubt was done (because the news broke on Friday after close of business and teh interim management was consituted by sunday)

if u see a spike in volume (as recent clearing of offer on 3.80 shows) then know that an injunction had been gotten but i beg all brother and sister here NOBODY shld shook head for this one because the complexity is too much and it wld only take an insider insider to play the game

injunction granted this afternoon as envisaged

close of Act 3 scene 1

we move to Act 3 scene 2 after resumption from sallah by then we wld have known who is after wale this time, then can properly dimension / project how it would pan out

DeRuggedProf:
A stock that will go to N100 from N5 must pass through N10, N15, N20, N25, N30, ......N100.
This is my take.
I can't take panadol for Wale's headache!

My prof that is why i begged the other time that you shldnt go on AWOL again ooooo

it cldnt have been better captured

robobo:
The war as dimensioned 1.5 years ago is three sided (wale / mangal/ volpi) with each of d side vested in establishment (Wale by his uncale BAT/ Mangal by Katsina establishment/ Volpi by Atiku)

All other parties are fringe

The war that broke out three years ago was an all for all fight (u know that kindly of wrestlemania where about ten fighters are caged and the winner is the last man standing

it was resolved by bringing two block togeda (wale and mangal brokered by emir of kano) against the Volpi /Atiku side, however this was not until two major collateral damage ( Adeosun/ Gwarzo)

The current war im not able to say with clarity who is where except that wale vs volpi angle had been raging on since that last war (1.5 years ago)

so the war is either wale & mangal vs volpi (in which case wale and mangal wld eventual come out winners) or

it is wale vs mangal&volpi (in which case no matter what wale wld eventually lose out, though i sincerely doubt this format because of previous truce brokered that brough wale & mangal togeda)

the 3rd side is as it broke out previously i.e. an all out war from all side (in which case i think mangal has an upper hand via katsina/ gwarzo angle and also the fact that he has became an insider for some time now and hence wld have more access to damaging information agaist wale)

my final take is that i think the current war against wale is being initiated by mangal (via gwarzo) because wale is in a weakened position from his protracted fight with volpi that has sucked out a lot of energy from him

wale wld eventually get an injunction against the interim management because the SEC require a court order to do same which i doubt was done (because the news broke on Friday after close of business and teh interim management was consituted by sunday)

if u see a spike in volume (as recent clearing of offer on 3.80 shows) then know that an injunction had been gotten but i beg all brother and sister here NOBODY shld shook head for this one because the complexity is too much and it wld only take an insider insider to play the game

robobo:
my take two one and half year ago when this war first broke out

the first bold i still stand is the spoil of war, yes wale has divested (and to a large extent sales to himself and cronies) most of other subsidiaries to supposedly pay for debt incurred on COP, but the interest in the upstream asset bought is still intact and cash generating, so whatever the forces fighting wale now (i cant decipher the force yet) is saying is that having tae other part of the old Oando for himself he shld leave the upstream asset for them as other stakeholder

the second bold i also maintain wld determine wether wale wld move from the realm of boys to men in the macheviallian/ macbeth nature of corporate Nigeria

the third i sense is what is about to happen and is so the proper case study to guide wld be the Ibru family / Ikeja Hotel saga

n.b as stated 1.5 years ago im vested here though the full cost had be written off from my balance sheet against profit brought abt by the lesson i picked from following the COP deals

The war as dimensioned 1.5 years ago is three sided (wale / mangal/ volpi) with each of d side vested in establishment (Wale by his uncale BAT/ Mangal by Katsina establishment/ Volpi by Atiku)

All other parties are fringe

The war that broke out three years ago was an all for all fight (u know that kindly of wrestlemania where about ten fighters are caged and the winner is the last man standing

it was resolved by bringing two block togeda (wale and mangal brokered by emir of kano) against the Volpi /Atiku side, however this was not until two major collateral damage ( Adeosun/ Gwarzo)

The current war im not able to say with clarity who is where except that wale vs volpi angle had been raging on since that last war (1.5 years ago)

so the war is either wale & mangal vs volpi (in which case wale and mangal wld eventual come out winners) or

it is wale vs mangal&volpi (in which case no matter what wale wld eventually lose out, though i sincerely doubt this format because of previous truce brokered that brough wale & mangal togeda)

the 3rd side is as it broke out previously i.e. an all out war from all side (in which case i think mangal has an upper hand via katsina/ gwarzo angle and also the fact that he has became an insider for some time now and hence wld have more access to damaging information agaist wale)

my final take is that i think the current war against wale is being initiated by mangal (via gwarzo) because wale is in a weakened position from his protracted fight with volpi that has sucked out a lot of energy from him

robobo:
.

This is surely getting messier and sweet

this story tie in the recent Intels Court Judgment of N4b against Oando (Atiku own substantial / controling interest in intels and that is his cash cow / war money machine).

its also potrays the italian guy i mentioned earlier (Volpi) as not on the side of Wale (which cld be disastrous for Wale) though i doubt this story as he (the italian) has a kind of Cross shares in O and O which is Wales major vehicle in Oando and the fact that this story from independent story hinted of a court case in UK (possibly instituted by Ansbury i.e. Mangal baby) forbiding the italian from voting in upcoming AGM

as said earlier Mangal is brutal and has ethnic alignment in his favour

what i sense is that Oando is about to turn profitable as partly evidenced by recent reports and signs oil prices has finally bottomed (between lower 40s and lower 50s) hence it is about to become a cash cow hence d dirty fight for control.

The decider wld be whose side the italian guy eventually takes.

Wale is about to have the fight of his life (this fight would eventually welcome him into the comity of men if he survives it,unfortunately this set of pple are not ojora's / unipetrol board that he rode roughshod over way back)

As said earlier my prayer is that they fight dirty on the stock exchange, so that we commoners / retailers can reap some benefit from the War.

N.B whenever the war spill over to market it might first be in form of dumping (a la Dangote Vs Otedola AP/ Forte oil war of recent memory) before it would eventually turn to bidding war (a la same AP/Forte oil rise back to abt 300 or as experienced in Caphotel i.e. the Ibru.

N.B im very heavy here and ready for any eventuality (up or down) cos most of the cost had been provisioned for on my balance sheet so whoever reads this might want to exercise caution

my take two one and half year ago when this war first broke out

the first bold i still stand is the spoil of war, yes wale has divested (and to a large extent sales to himself and cronies) most of other subsidiaries to supposedly pay for debt incurred on COP, but the interest in the upstream asset bought is still intact and cash generating, so whatever the forces fighting wale now (i cant decipher the force yet) is saying is that having taken other part of the old Oando for himself he shld leave the upstream asset for them as other stakeholder

the second bold i also maintain wld determine wether wale wld move from the realm of boys to men in the macheviallian/ macbeth nature of corporate Nigeria

the third i sense is what is about to happen and is so the proper case study to guide wld be the Ibru famuly / Ikeja Hotel saga

n.b as stated 1.5 years ago im vested here though the full cost had be written off from my balance sheet against profit brought abt by the lesson i picked from following the COP deals

the BRAVES just resumed at the market for oando

as someone said Act 1 Scene 2 but i think it is Act 3 scene 1

DeRuggedProf:
MSCI is waging a road block!

cc: Yok..

ok i see

copy that perspective. was blind sided to that prior.

Roger and out.

Thank you

DeRuggedProf:
These guys will wait till market is about to close and send Zenith up again.
Sneaking MTNN's loot into the market need a clever strategy indeed...

.

the FUGAZ are gradually back at the price range they were PRE the euphoria of MTNN so they wld need to be very careful to slot the fund back where they were pulled from. you should know as a guru and veteran that the cycle is not complete and profit not made until the funds are back home where they were pulled from.

RabbiDoracle:
Those that sold are now rushing in.

In this market, people should work on emotions and profit from the fearful.

I hope the market falls more.

my oga dem all b coward i wld have tot dey wld continue to bid MTNN up till 200 and let others (FUGAZ) continue dir reverse but here we are they are all catching cold at the first sneeze of MTNN thereby running away from the thing

i dont think the market is going anywhere yet cos no fresh fund in d market it is just same old fund being recycle back to where they were pulled from so i wld expect the bull to halt late in d week or when previous prices on the eve of MTNN listing are attained.

but overall watch out for d president speech tomorrow it cld send d bears back if any portion of it contain any scare mongering the unfortunate thing is that the speech has ZERO value of generating an upside / bull though down inside me i sincerely pray/hope im proved wrong abt d zero upside value but in this game hope is not a strategy

seems they are back from MTNN bonanza or na IGG

the battle field of 12-1 wld tell

GonFreecss1:
Exactly! This is the truth and we all know it. All this unprofessional business relations in Nigeria is unbecoming.

its unfortunate where we found ourselves. in as much as i might not be willing to pick up MTNN at the current price and as much as i believe the listing could have been better handled by the REGULATORS. MTNN itself had not done anything wrong.. The failure is that of the REGULATOR (SEC) and MARKET STRUCTURES (NSE) that gave the go ahead for such behemoth to be listed via INTRODUCTION without variating same with some level of offer for sale (particularly from the principal/ controlling interest) to douse what was evidently a pent up demand for the SHARES.

Unfortunately we live in an era when its is criminal to be successful / rich, when law enforcements agencies / apparatus cant differentiate that while some rich / successful people / enterprises could be criminal not ALL rich / successful people are criminals. That success/ riches are shades of gray (gray itself being a shade of black/white) and hence we have the harrasment of MTNN.

However it shld be noted by the authorities that NO SOCIETY ever progress that harassed its own successful / rich. Such SOCIETY, history had shown always end up going into extinction

Deadlytruth:
Unfortunately that is Nigeria for you and you won't blame anyone. Yours sincerely too once looked for banking job with a certificate in medical studies in my hands. I also once went for Virgin Atlantic Airlines crew members recruitment interview held in Sheraton Hotel in Ikeja. There is simply no professional functionalism in Nigeria because we all went to school to get certificates with the purview to securing a 'decent' source of livelihood rather than to contribute our knowledge gained therein to the actual betterment of the society.

My Broda how do you want to do the bold when you are faced with existential threat (hunger / homelessness/ insecurity e.t.c, so nothing do you).
first you must solve / defeat ur existential threat (hence ur using your medical certificate to find 'decent' job) before you do the bold.
what society that are moving forward do is that those existential threat are defeated at the level of the society/collectively (hence you have social safety nets to guarantee some basics) then their citizen are freed up to do the bold.

The tangent of the above to our business here is one of what could have manifested in the MTNN listing debacle

i beg make we go back to our stock business, we play the game as the society throw the dice

OakPearl:
They are not done dumping their's either.

i tire ooooo we have been hearing this news of foreign investors dumping shares for about two years now consistently

The thing na bottomless pit?

MTNN don land ooooo
dem don dey even reduce price for una
so make una go grab una copy oooo
make una no forget sell all the FUGAZ wey una get oo so dat una go fit load more of the MTNN

DeRuggedProf:
when there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel, its the right time for tigers to go hunting...
I love to start buying at periods of high uncertainty, when there is no piece of good news anywhere...

My Prof that is why i said "slow down a little bit" and not stop.

That a season is perilous does not mean it wld not come with its own bounty, one should just be more careful because it is perilous, carefulness does not equate to halt, it (carefulness) only means PROCEED with caution

Theresa May Resigns, Brexit comes into focus again

Anti Europe / right wing tending towards majority in European Parliament

Escalation of USA / China Trade wars

Dark clouds over Global Economy

Time to slowdown a little cause things might get a little bit worse before it get better (as it would surely do)

rebekah2011:
When you have a Governor of CBN talking like this, you know that there is a problem. TBs even though are bought majorly by the banks, the bulk of it relates to the deposit of the customers. If you restrict access to TB's for the banks, you are simply shutting the door to their customers. You cannot force banks to lend scarce resources to serial debtors that will refuse to pay back.

Now this is the kind of news i could be afraid of

RabbiDoracle:
Are you one and the same person?

My Oga why are you disturbing ursef naaaa

make the capitulation come quick naaaa

or u no wan make money niiiiiii

RabbiDoracle:
That means you bought high in UCAP.

yes my oga some long moons back. i have cycle two dividend though

na greed no let me go out when it went 4 ish some few moons ago

but in this we learn everyday. Another lesson under the belt. which is that i shld get a BETTER grip of my emotions (greed/fear) when it come to this business

OakPearl:

AT this rate, another type of greed sets in saying "wait small for further downward spiraling or buy 'small, small'"!
While you are at that, 2 things are likely:
1. The cookies keep crumbling and you serve yourself delightedly
or
2. Upward swing and your case becomes "Had I known"

My Oga dont take your eye away from the prize

2 above would only happen to you if u take your eye away from the prize. The prize for me is the div yield (the capital appreciation only makes my div yield come EARLY if it happens) hence i wld continue to buy small small as long as all indicators continue to point to d fact that the div yield wld be met, if fund finish buying small small so be it. because fishing bottom is a very elusive game

RabbiDoracle:
Zenith nearing 18.

Market has become " aturu ta ba".

Food everywhere. Serve yourself!

ataba turu
Egun oniko
Osha Apena

My Broda na really Buffet (alias serve ursef)

i am getting the beating of my life from UCAP but nothing do me

OakPearl:
If you must take foreign loan, don't play the NSE with it.
Two options:
1. Play the NYSE
OR
2. Play Eurobond @ 9-10% coupon rates.

Baba in addition, i wld say if u a going to play NSE look at the possibility of buying FX forwards (dont know if it is open to individuals) to hedge the risk of currency volatility that u a wary of

the number 2 though is quite preferable because at cost of 4% your transaction wld only become a carry trade (of 5% net) in same currency so no currency risk

DeRuggedProf:
The opposite is most likely.
Money will be freed to chase other stocks.
Where do you think 'excess' of the money made is going?
Brokers will first flood the market with offers where they want to enter and scare people to bring out volume.
Brokers will soon start preaching valuations where they entered for a second round of dumping, then go back to MTNN....
That is how the game is played.
Watch out for stocks that pay interim dividend, harvest time is not too far.
They will wait patiently and pump them....

My Prof once again i beg u in d name of God dont go on Awol again ooooooooo

OakPearl:

Funny bro.
Scooped some at the bolded though.
Wetin concern me?

my broda nothing do you i scooped some zenith at 19.75 some few days ago too nevetheless they shld do quick like i said and let us hit the 20% div yield target quick quick

Jejebabaa:
If this market should remain low like this till Jul, i will be one of the most happiest guy on NSEMPA. I am planning to get a foreign loan at 4% interest rate the major risk to it is devaluation. I must not miss this opportunity oo.

my oga i beg show me d way to this foreign loan

Devaluation like i said earlier is out of the table for now (at least 6 month - 1 year)

most foreign media/ analyst already posit that the Naira is fairly valued at present coupled with a war chest of $45b put the stability of naira in the near to medium time in good stead

the major RISK to above is if the rate in fixed income space crashed which with current inflation uptrend starting this month looks unlikely. this is so because a cumulative of of btw $10-20b inflow came in just after the election and all those fund were largely channeled to fixed income instruments, so if rate crashed in that space the funds wld be looking at flowing out again which would surely pressured the Naira but as i said earlier that is highly unlikely with current economic realities

Jejebabaa:
I am so happy with the way the market is tanking, my only prayer is that, there should not be currency devaluation. If there is no currency devaluation, then this market crash is a great opportunity for wealth transfer.

God bless you plentyful my Oga

as for devaluation there is nothing like that

the worst that could happen in that space is CONVERGENCE. That is current govt official rate move from 306 to joining other rates (nafex/ parrelel/ i&e) at 360, which effectively means for the market everything would remain the same cos the 306 is only being used by government for its own transactions, in a way it could even be more beneficial for the the market cos it wld mean government wld have more spending power naira wise

OakPearl:
We have heard enough of these alarms.
Markets will keep crashing and rising at intervals all over the world.
Nobody will die.
Relax and do what's best for your portfolio.
Wealth transfer is going on for those who will.
No need for creating panic.

My Oga u dey fall my hand oooooo

why are you bothering ursef whether there is panic creation?

im even disappointed in those creating the panic that they are not doing enough

they shld do more by letting us get to 20% div yield quickly. zenith at 19.05 / UBA at 5.70/ GTB at 31 is still very far from this target (20% div yield) so i am disappointed that it is taking them centuries to achieve this little milestone.

They shld do quick biko. they shld push d prices of these counters to 20% div yield. then we can start talking if there is panic creation or not as at this junction they have not done enough at all.

locodemy:
Leadership tussle.........They need to mentain market leadeing by capitalization.

Mtn must work extra hard to take over.....

Another good perspective

Yayira:
GBAM! Mtn wisest of them all.. first introduce the stock before ipo and hid shares under one mtn international.. they should have asked mtn nigeria to float nothing less than 5 billion since they want to do introduction before ipo..

but why all of una dey castigate MTN naaaaa

Na typical Nigerian culture to do introduction/ engagement before marriage (ipo) naaaa

dem just dey learn our culture fast fast

i beg make una leave dem alone joorrr

OBAGADAFFI:
Well, they will the collect money from Nigerian Banks to pay the Nigerian Government.

Sad.

That is what we call " Government money in Government House" --- Barkin Zuwo