₦airaland Forum

where is the wiping when we are yet to get to 20% net dividend yield for beta stocks (like GTB / Zenith e.t.c )

i beg make he continue so that we go reach that side quickly (20% net dividend yield)

only then wld d market reverse cos there wld be no more incentive for the FPI in the money market they are currently piling into

so my pple make una neva hold una breath oooo. i think more wld still come

Blood on the dance floor

Getting nearer to my bus stop

TLAX:
Yup...The bankers are smart. I think many of them will drop dividends this year in view of the barrage of new and potential directives from the CBN. In any case the argument will be that if stock prices do not improve from current levels this year a drop in dividend to a level that still yields 10%-11% is a good deal.


I expect GTB and Zenith in the worst case will hold dividend constant at 2018 levels. I strongly expect Access, UBA and STANBIC, FBN, FCMB to drop dividend while Fidelity may see marginal increase because of their shenanigans earlier in the year.

I agree with you to some extent that dividend might drop albeit marginal (abt 5 to 10% drop) but it wouldnt be as a result of market prices

Dividend payout by the banks are in most cases driven by internal policies (which in itself is guided by regulatory policies) and not market prices. you would see the tier one banks typically doing between 35 - 50% of EPS irrespective of what the market price is saying. so even if the reduction is going to happen it wld be towards the lower end of the band as per each banks internal policy hence my postulation of 5-10% drop from previous year payment.

All said though i think it wld be more of holding at the current payment (for the FUGAZ) instead of dropping it (particularly if there is no drop in EPS) because the amount to be saved from the dropping wont be worth the negative perception / consequence on the brand/market price if there was no drop on EPS. However if there was a drop in EPS then you would almost be certain that there would be a drop in payout using the drop in EPS as the excuse

OakPearl:

I don't wanna be caught unawares sir oh.
So better done in bits for me.
If it manages to get to your junction, I scoop some more.
No be me greedy pass.

My Oga no be say me sef greedy like that

i already have some sizeable units between 8-13% dividend yield

so it wont be bad if i pursue 15-20 dividend yield when i want to add more naaa

Opportunity like dat might not come often so it is better i make a good use of the present one

Yayira:
15 to 20% that one go sweet oo.. but what if they don’t pay the same dividend next year After what happened in ccnn I’m now very carefully chasing dividends

Madam Morning tells the day

Follow quarterly result bumper to bumper then you wld be able to say with a degree of certainty / probability whether they would be able to pay the same / up to last year dividend.

Though above thus not discount the element of surprise (which i wld categorise as an investment risk) but it can act as guidance

OakPearl:
UBA at N5.90 is cool.
Just scooped some.

My Oga

it is not cool oooooo

My target is now 15 to 20% dividend yield (net of tax)

so what would do that for me is N5 to N5.5

They should please help my ministry biko

Agbalowomeri:
There are always different catalyst for each meltdown. The index is already down to the level of the previous meltdown (save for the mtn rescue). I remember gtb selling as low as 13 that time.
27 is a strong long-term support but expect it to retest it. Once broken be sure it will get to 20.

.

This is the quintessential Agba that i know of.

i wonder where He had gone to all this while.

Chief we want more of that

CashDiMkpa:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26641_ACCESS_BANK_PLC._CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JULY_2019.pdf

No so the thing dey take start o.....

My broda i agree with you

There is obvious something cooking particularly with the coming recapitalisation

Even if not Access / UBN. Mergers and consolidation wld surely happen within the tier 2 banking space either PRE or POST the recapitalisation

pluto09:
Fidelity stands out as the bank to be least affected.
There is a high possibility of a reduction in profit of some of the tie 1 banks most especially zenith.
It might be time to reduce exposure to banking stocks as i see the policy hurting some of them.
Banks will rather allow CBN to have their capital than giving out unnecessary loan.

or even in d alternative shed costly deposit (since its a ratio of loan to deposit) to meet the ratio instead of engaging in risky lending that would eventually shoot their NPL up

onegentleguy:
Yet another one from Mr Emiefula and crew !!

The shift...
There shall be merits and demerits with this new directive from the CBN.
Time to adjust, re-adjust, realign and quite possibly avoid certain coys.

In the banking sector, its time to weigh up risk assets benchmarked against loans for those whose liquidity weighting has been more loan driven, and earnings margin against asset quility and yield for those that have been largely investment driven.
Banks with higher NPL, lower CAR(from the aftermath of IFRS 9 implementation), higher CoF, lower Net Margin, ROAE and EM should be avoided. ...FBNH, UBN and UNITY readily comes to mind.
In contrast, I believe that ZENITH, FCMB, ACCESS, UBA, FIDELITY and GTB are the most favorably placed banks to withstand the consequence of this new directive.

Elsewhere, its going to be a new line of positive for some coys in certain sectors.
The FMCGs, OIL and GAS and to a lesser extent real estate. The INSURANCE sector will also indirectly reap from this.
With the 1st aforementioned sector, I like DS and FMN... but that's just me.

It is well.

It is also a positive for Equity market in general

as you can be rest assured some of new lending would find its way to d market

basically i see d funds flowing in two major direction of Equity and Real Estate because both are currently distressed assets

[quote author=sellydion post=79868700][/quote]Them don dey come since election don over naaaa

nut always headed to the money market with total neglect of the equities market

i know no whether we offend dem ooooo

OakPearl:
In just about an hour to the close of trading, with over 25m offer against 7m bid, UBA has sold a paltry 491k shares.
Signs of something like a swing by GA!

My Oga u cld b correct dat a swing cld b in d offing

but what i see is a bait by d buy side (25m) trying to gauge how hard and fast d hand of the sell side (7m) is. if d sell side hand is strong they shld collapse one of the walls (either 6.20 or 6.15). if they cant den d buy side might overan dem (sell side) in d battle of 2.00 -2.20pm

Jejebabaa:
Yours is still better, i have been averaging down from around 9 and now i am at 7.70. I need to buy 2M units more at 6.05 and below then i am done with UBA accumulation. If the thing no fit poo make the thing dey vomit annually in Oga Oracle voice till the FPI come carry my kaya.

Boss Boss

so na u get dose wall of Jericho at 6.05 / 6 of over 4m hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

ur boy dey beg u oooooooooooo

make u comot dose wall make d tin come my junction

me i no go stregth like u so na fraction of afolabi unit i wan buy

once again sir please i beg u in d name of God comot those walls oooo

OakPearl:
UNBIASED REPORTAGE
People of God, I am done with my findings on Airtel Africa regarding this IPO.
Current dividend yield hovers around 5%ish.
For those who need to make their investment decision before IPO closes on Thursday, please find below:

The estimated Earnings Per Share (EPS) for Airtel Africa based on the issued share capital of 3.7bn shares and US$450m profit is US$0.12.
Converted to Naira, EPS is between N37.20 and N43.90 based on the Official and NAFEX exchange rates respectively.
We estimate the P/E ratio at 9.8x and 10.3x respectively.
According to the IPO prospectus, the company intends to pay 80% of consolidated free cashflow as dividend.
However, the dividend pay-out is dependent on a leverage ratio between 2.5x and 3.5x.
This ratio is currently at 3.01x, so we estimate dividend per share (US$0.07) to be N20.10 and N23.72 based on Official and NAFEX exchange rates respectively
Based on the offer price of N363-N454, this translates to a dividend yield of 5.5% and 5.2% respectively.

You are the CEO of your life!

God bless you plenty for this breakdown

i think this one shld w8 a little

OakPearl:
Sure.
Drop your preferred email.

In fact check your DM.

responded but mail was undeliverable

OakPearl:
All sentiments shared here so far about Airtel's IPO is mostly true.
It's a much more sincere approach IMO.
Going by the pricing which is based on the OS, you could decipher they aren't out to exploit the common man because it is already beyond his reach. If them exploit, kpa kpa na the money bags loose and they can hardly offend those caliber of investors, so they came clean with stating they will service debts with some of the offer proceeds.
The offer prospectus also states they are paying 80% of their eps as dividend.
One thing about investing at this level I have come to realise is that there is hidden value to reap before it is made affordable for all.
My own be say I have been scratching my head to find what ways retail investors like us go fit subscribe since pre-listing and today I have found a way.
Afrinvest has perfected an SPV that makes it possible for retail investors to invest in a minimum of 500 shares.
Am letting this info out here in the spirit of the brotherhood we share in this forum.
No intent to monkey hunt.
Do your DD and if the numbers pleases you, carry go.
I may take a punt on this...undecided though.

Chief do you have any contact in Afrinvest i can leverage on

wld appr8

cuteboy2:
Afrinvest

ok thank you appr8

cuteboy2:
Is is available. Nigerian brokers are arranging SPV to allow retail investors purchase minimum small units like 500 shares. Later, it will be crossed into thier CSCS account, similar to the MTN Teleop Fund arrangement done by Afrinvest years ago when MTN listing was anticipated

Hello Chief

wld appr8 if u specify any of the houses involved in the SPV arrangement

currentprice:
Eku market o

I hope this bank recapitalisation and tribunal refusal to grant access to inec server issues will not paint the mkt red today

anyway I am still searching for the 3 days bonanza

the mid year book closures might counteract dat

so i envisage that mkt cld possibly be marginal to both side

stcool:
Investor just bought 75% at N66 and you are talking about sell down.

The only logical thing is they want to acquire the company 100% and delist.

Whichever way they want to see it above their purchase price.

my Oga i no dey fight u naaaa

i was only making you to see d whole spectrum

the rule qouted by nairametrics was thus "Section 131 of the Investment and Securities Act, as well as Rule 445 of the Securities and Exchange Commission, requires anybody or any organisation that acquires at least 30% stake in a company to make an MTO to other minority shareholders"

from the above rule then as stated by prof Nipco should have bought out other shareholder because it bought 60% from Mobil but as we all witness Mobil never did any MTO

the reason above is why i stated that the clause might only be applicable if they intend to delist

but as stated earlier those are my opinion pple with better knowledge of the regulation might shed more light on it

rebekah2011:
Thank you, Prof. I look at the news as monkey hunting from some guys.

i think buying the remaining 25% wld be applicable if dey intend to delist cos with the 75% dey are already in clear majority

They might even need to sell down some if the remaining 25% is in the hand of strategic bloc in other to maintain regulatory free float

n.b my tot i might be wrong so pple with deeper regulatory insight should shed more light

DaV8King:
Plus Nigerian factor of 5%, and you will see the CBN is making sense


IMO, the CBN itself should be recapitalized.

How can you be funding a US$400 billion economy with a capital base of NGN 100 billion?!!

As it stands, any of the FUGAZ can technically buy the CBN without even denting their liquidity.

Na wa o

my oga hw for do naaa

wetin u mention / recommend above na him be hunter become the hunted

in short Overtake Don Overtake Overtake (ODOO)

hmmmmmmmmmmm

DaV8King:
Why?!

If we have more than 3 banks (FUGAZ) that presently have depositors fund in excess of US$5 billion EACH, I think it is reasonable.

Be adequately capitalized for the work you wanna do.

Can't we see how even the NGN 25 billion was to small when the proverbial s**t hit the fan in 2009?

my chief you do have a point and i am already readjusting my perspective on same was initailly looking at it from an absolute basis and not relative

particular on that aspect of having more than $5b asset / depositors fund

but still optimal use of capital must also be put in perspective

Basle II and III still stipulate circa 8% capital for every asset a bank hold

$1b capital to $5b asset wld give abt 20% which might not be a optimal use of capital

Agbalowomeri:
It should vary according to whether you have international status or national or regional

my oga i agree with you. that is what is already even in place going by present requirement

but it wld be absurd to stipulate $1b (N360b) capital base for bank in Nigeria even where they are international.

that is where my thinking is coming from (that it shld not materially affect the FUGAZ much) becos the minimum in that space is already > 360b

dipoolowoo:
BREAKING: CBN to Raise Minimum Capital Base of Banks
https://businesspost.ng/2019/06/24/breaking-cbn-to-raise-minimum-capital-base-of-banks/

This shld not affect the FUGAZ much, the minimum within dat fold shld already the > 300b shareholders fund / capital base
. it cld even be to dir advantage cos it might open up some of the marginal players for takeover

but we wait for the full details before proper dimensioning

stcool:
They want to finish this market...once banks dividend is in question for year end the bears will be ALL OVER.

Good news for the economy but not good for the market. Banks are the only entity still holding investors interest and once their dividend is reduced or in question, the market will fall further!

are investors reacting already

some big volume just went down in zenith over 10m+

DeRuggedProf:
A snipers task is the most unnerving.
There is more pain in waiting than in losing....

Prof Prof bolded is very true but that is what also brings discipline

robobo:
and some pple are OFFLOADING IT
those are crosses and not on the open market
and its takes two to make a market

https://www.proshareng.com/news/STOCK%20&%20ANALYST%20UPDATES/Update--Huge-Volume-Traded-on-WEMABANK-Shares-Yesterday-Was-A-Cross-Deal/45748

DeRuggedProf:
Not everyone arrive and leave the market the same time.
The sellers might have not known that irresponsible money has become available until that moment.

lol "irresponsible money" My prof u too harsh oooo

i would say " mayb d person no need money when the the thing dey 30k but he come need money badly when the thing move to 27k"

u cant blame a man for deploying his resources as he deem fit

Mcy56:
To me, Wema is selling at discount at the moment. Mr. Time will tell if you're right or wrong @robobo.

Madam i dont want to EVEN BE RIGHT
THE ONLY THING I WANT TO DO IS MAKE MONEY

WEMA is not in my portfolio and not on my radar
rather i was just calling attention to the fact that it takes TWO (offloading vs warehousing) to make a market

onegentleguy:

Don't worry... when the day of reckoning shall come, ur eyes go clear !!

its early in the morning chief
no need for my eye to be clear
let us make money (the main essence of being here)
it take someone who wants to sell for a buyer to be able to buy this is a fact that me or you cant change
whoever is right between them TIME wld surely tell,
in any case both can even be right cos u dont know what the person selling is putting his proceed into
once again let us make money (the main essence of being here)

Mcy56:
Forget about offloading. Some wealth sharing hands in Wema bro. Over 2 billion now.

does it mean the person buying is doing so from thin air lol
u can believe what u want to madam
but in this market it take two MAKE A MARKET and not one