₦airaland Forum

Intendy:
Stocks with new 52 week lows

Gtb #27.90k
International breweries #12.00k
NCR #5.30k
Eterna oil #2.70k

I can NOW believe we are entering bear bear
Na NOW d thing just dey start
GTB don join but d haircut still small
we are gradually getting to the END

Agbalowomeri:
My brother, I don't know anything about ETI o
It's purely gut, from the way the thing dey dig into hell fire

Thank u appr8

Agbalowomeri:
Clearly ETI is poised to win the next 200% race for us
We watch carefully like the Felis catus

Boss

Whats ur take vis - a vis the PIC / NEDBANK scandal currently in play in SA abt d same firm

wld appr8 ur perspective

BullBearMkt:
...lol! why asking people who are gurus in stock market this kind of question? You will do well to ask the Forex gurus in the appropriate section your "pips" question.

welcome back chief

The person wey dey offload this UBA na lily livered person oooooo

he shld demolish this walls at 5.55 and 5.50 fast naaaaa

DeRuggedProf:
When your vehicle chooses to respond only to the reverse gear, let your driver remember to face the car in the opposite direction of your journey and proceed....

This is NEXT LUNACY...

we (NSE) are definitely stuck with low / lacklustre performance growth (with GDP growth not likely to exceed the range of 2-3.5% per annum) for the next four years. The only game in town as per NSE wld be to chop dividend and occasional volatility induced JIJO


hmmmmmm we are on a long thing

lancee:
How far sir ..Next week na first week August ..everyday dey go fast these days

My Oga me sef no know. i was just relying on past trend of interim payment for the FUGAZ falling within the stated period.

it might or might not be d same this year

Jejebabaa:
Hope some people have not seen UBA result or its IGG.

result still far away (same as interim dividend which wnt be paid until late August / early September)

its just closing the gap between its brother and co musketeer (Access)

expect similar thing from FBNH if the other two musketeers are able to hold thier new prices otherwise they are coming back to thier third brother

OakPearl:
Waited at this junction all day.
Phew!

got some at 5.50 today and some at 5.55 / 5.60 earlier in d week

UBA lets go there

u can sure do 5.40 today

try harder baby

OakPearl:
What is going on with Oando?

Someone had been fighting to ensure the price does not go below N4

and the person had been quite consistent since abt a week or two

either its the market maker or an insider who is see some value at dat price

cos if person is an outsider and not either a market maker/insider then that person sure has a heart of steel for the units he had mopped up at dat price (abt 10-20m units)

mendes911:
Not to worry. Somebody heard your cry and sold to ALL on #5.50.

im not really concerned about that particular order cos i know it wld break d price (ve got some other at lower prices)

i wld still appr8 if im schooled on how the order system

House Please i wld appr8 if someone can help clarify this

Placed an order for UBA @ 5.50 early today, in fact after the placement i was number 4 on the 5.50 band

however about an hour into trading i noticed my order had been moved down to number 8 after which some units were filled

now i had noticed more than about 3 million unit done on the 5.50 price but my order is yet to be filled neither is any of the first 7 orders in front of me. Please note that all unit done within the 5.50 band were small disparate figure so cldnt have possibly been crosses

i wld appr8 if any1 can shed light on how this order system works so that it cld be factor into decision making

currentprice:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26731_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2019.pdf

Thank you

paulcr7:
Earnings Flash (United Capital Plc)
H1:2019 Unaudited Results: Revenue fell 16.5% Y-o-Y to N3.2bn from N3.9bn; PAT declined 17.0% Y-o-Y from N2.0bn to N1.7bn

Transcorp, now UCAP. "My" companies are not doing well.

Hello Chief

would appreciate if you oblige the UCAP result

where is the wiping when we are yet to get to 20% net dividend yield for beta stocks (like GTB / Zenith e.t.c )

i beg make he continue so that we go reach that side quickly (20% net dividend yield)

only then wld d market reverse cos there wld be no more incentive for the FPI in the money market they are currently piling into

so my pple make una neva hold una breath oooo. i think more wld still come

Blood on the dance floor

Getting nearer to my bus stop

TLAX:
Yup...The bankers are smart. I think many of them will drop dividends this year in view of the barrage of new and potential directives from the CBN. In any case the argument will be that if stock prices do not improve from current levels this year a drop in dividend to a level that still yields 10%-11% is a good deal.


I expect GTB and Zenith in the worst case will hold dividend constant at 2018 levels. I strongly expect Access, UBA and STANBIC, FBN, FCMB to drop dividend while Fidelity may see marginal increase because of their shenanigans earlier in the year.

I agree with you to some extent that dividend might drop albeit marginal (abt 5 to 10% drop) but it wouldnt be as a result of market prices

Dividend payout by the banks are in most cases driven by internal policies (which in itself is guided by regulatory policies) and not market prices. you would see the tier one banks typically doing between 35 - 50% of EPS irrespective of what the market price is saying. so even if the reduction is going to happen it wld be towards the lower end of the band as per each banks internal policy hence my postulation of 5-10% drop from previous year payment.

All said though i think it wld be more of holding at the current payment (for the FUGAZ) instead of dropping it (particularly if there is no drop in EPS) because the amount to be saved from the dropping wont be worth the negative perception / consequence on the brand/market price if there was no drop on EPS. However if there was a drop in EPS then you would almost be certain that there would be a drop in payout using the drop in EPS as the excuse

OakPearl:

I don't wanna be caught unawares sir oh.
So better done in bits for me.
If it manages to get to your junction, I scoop some more.
No be me greedy pass.

My Oga no be say me sef greedy like that

i already have some sizeable units between 8-13% dividend yield

so it wont be bad if i pursue 15-20 dividend yield when i want to add more naaa

Opportunity like dat might not come often so it is better i make a good use of the present one

Yayira:
15 to 20% that one go sweet oo.. but what if they don’t pay the same dividend next year After what happened in ccnn I’m now very carefully chasing dividends

Madam Morning tells the day

Follow quarterly result bumper to bumper then you wld be able to say with a degree of certainty / probability whether they would be able to pay the same / up to last year dividend.

Though above thus not discount the element of surprise (which i wld categorise as an investment risk) but it can act as guidance

OakPearl:
UBA at N5.90 is cool.
Just scooped some.

My Oga

it is not cool oooooo

My target is now 15 to 20% dividend yield (net of tax)

so what would do that for me is N5 to N5.5

They should please help my ministry biko

Agbalowomeri:
There are always different catalyst for each meltdown. The index is already down to the level of the previous meltdown (save for the mtn rescue). I remember gtb selling as low as 13 that time.
27 is a strong long-term support but expect it to retest it. Once broken be sure it will get to 20.

.

This is the quintessential Agba that i know of.

i wonder where He had gone to all this while.

Chief we want more of that

CashDiMkpa:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26641_ACCESS_BANK_PLC._CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JULY_2019.pdf

No so the thing dey take start o.....

My broda i agree with you

There is obvious something cooking particularly with the coming recapitalisation

Even if not Access / UBN. Mergers and consolidation wld surely happen within the tier 2 banking space either PRE or POST the recapitalisation

pluto09:
Fidelity stands out as the bank to be least affected.
There is a high possibility of a reduction in profit of some of the tie 1 banks most especially zenith.
It might be time to reduce exposure to banking stocks as i see the policy hurting some of them.
Banks will rather allow CBN to have their capital than giving out unnecessary loan.

or even in d alternative shed costly deposit (since its a ratio of loan to deposit) to meet the ratio instead of engaging in risky lending that would eventually shoot their NPL up

onegentleguy:
Yet another one from Mr Emiefula and crew !!

The shift...
There shall be merits and demerits with this new directive from the CBN.
Time to adjust, re-adjust, realign and quite possibly avoid certain coys.

In the banking sector, its time to weigh up risk assets benchmarked against loans for those whose liquidity weighting has been more loan driven, and earnings margin against asset quility and yield for those that have been largely investment driven.
Banks with higher NPL, lower CAR(from the aftermath of IFRS 9 implementation), higher CoF, lower Net Margin, ROAE and EM should be avoided. ...FBNH, UBN and UNITY readily comes to mind.
In contrast, I believe that ZENITH, FCMB, ACCESS, UBA, FIDELITY and GTB are the most favorably placed banks to withstand the consequence of this new directive.

Elsewhere, its going to be a new line of positive for some coys in certain sectors.
The FMCGs, OIL and GAS and to a lesser extent real estate. The INSURANCE sector will also indirectly reap from this.
With the 1st aforementioned sector, I like DS and FMN... but that's just me.

It is well.

It is also a positive for Equity market in general

as you can be rest assured some of new lending would find its way to d market

basically i see d funds flowing in two major direction of Equity and Real Estate because both are currently distressed assets

[quote author=sellydion post=79868700][/quote]Them don dey come since election don over naaaa

nut always headed to the money market with total neglect of the equities market

i know no whether we offend dem ooooo

OakPearl:
In just about an hour to the close of trading, with over 25m offer against 7m bid, UBA has sold a paltry 491k shares.
Signs of something like a swing by GA!

My Oga u cld b correct dat a swing cld b in d offing

but what i see is a bait by d buy side (25m) trying to gauge how hard and fast d hand of the sell side (7m) is. if d sell side hand is strong they shld collapse one of the walls (either 6.20 or 6.15). if they cant den d buy side might overan dem (sell side) in d battle of 2.00 -2.20pm

Jejebabaa:
Yours is still better, i have been averaging down from around 9 and now i am at 7.70. I need to buy 2M units more at 6.05 and below then i am done with UBA accumulation. If the thing no fit poo make the thing dey vomit annually in Oga Oracle voice till the FPI come carry my kaya.

Boss Boss

so na u get dose wall of Jericho at 6.05 / 6 of over 4m hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

ur boy dey beg u oooooooooooo

make u comot dose wall make d tin come my junction

me i no go stregth like u so na fraction of afolabi unit i wan buy

once again sir please i beg u in d name of God comot those walls oooo

OakPearl:
UNBIASED REPORTAGE
People of God, I am done with my findings on Airtel Africa regarding this IPO.
Current dividend yield hovers around 5%ish.
For those who need to make their investment decision before IPO closes on Thursday, please find below:

The estimated Earnings Per Share (EPS) for Airtel Africa based on the issued share capital of 3.7bn shares and US$450m profit is US$0.12.
Converted to Naira, EPS is between N37.20 and N43.90 based on the Official and NAFEX exchange rates respectively.
We estimate the P/E ratio at 9.8x and 10.3x respectively.
According to the IPO prospectus, the company intends to pay 80% of consolidated free cashflow as dividend.
However, the dividend pay-out is dependent on a leverage ratio between 2.5x and 3.5x.
This ratio is currently at 3.01x, so we estimate dividend per share (US$0.07) to be N20.10 and N23.72 based on Official and NAFEX exchange rates respectively
Based on the offer price of N363-N454, this translates to a dividend yield of 5.5% and 5.2% respectively.

You are the CEO of your life!

God bless you plenty for this breakdown

i think this one shld w8 a little

OakPearl:
Sure.
Drop your preferred email.

In fact check your DM.

responded but mail was undeliverable

OakPearl:
All sentiments shared here so far about Airtel's IPO is mostly true.
It's a much more sincere approach IMO.
Going by the pricing which is based on the OS, you could decipher they aren't out to exploit the common man because it is already beyond his reach. If them exploit, kpa kpa na the money bags loose and they can hardly offend those caliber of investors, so they came clean with stating they will service debts with some of the offer proceeds.
The offer prospectus also states they are paying 80% of their eps as dividend.
One thing about investing at this level I have come to realise is that there is hidden value to reap before it is made affordable for all.
My own be say I have been scratching my head to find what ways retail investors like us go fit subscribe since pre-listing and today I have found a way.
Afrinvest has perfected an SPV that makes it possible for retail investors to invest in a minimum of 500 shares.
Am letting this info out here in the spirit of the brotherhood we share in this forum.
No intent to monkey hunt.
Do your DD and if the numbers pleases you, carry go.
I may take a punt on this...undecided though.

Chief do you have any contact in Afrinvest i can leverage on

wld appr8