₦airaland Forum

pumping777:
For stocks that have not seen any recent prolonged bull run, I don't expect 5% drops. However, for stocks that appear fairly or even under-priced, drops of 2%-3% appear significant.

We can understand the situation with Oceanic but other stocks defy any logic as far as I can see. Only Unity, Intercontinental and IBTC made any gains today and only Intercontinental's gain was not marginal.

Oceanic is a prime candidate for a share reconstruction(reverse split) so i guess the rumour is filtering through and peeps are taking profit Intercontinental: news making the rounds that they may also be a candidate for share reconstruction that does not seem to impact the share price adversely but i cant confirm if this is true r not

wanaj0:
What's the definition of medium term bearing in mind the 6months tenor?


Useless report from Tribune. How do you deconsolidate? Even if they allow government to own shares in bank who will do business with government owned banks?

Secondly, era of Government being the main spender is gone. So the leverage is reduced.

Nothing stop any region from buying into any bank.

By the way, how do you decondolidate? By reducing the minimum capitalisation or what?

Like someone said earlier on the thread   he wont not give any credence to the report until it appears in Guardian or some other newspaper.
To imagine that some editor in some newspaper company actually approved the publication of this 'sub' story not even a story says a lot about the quality of the editorship of Tribune!

pumping777:
Wow, why is there so much blood on banking floor today? Abi the Tribune rumour na true

Chei! u too dey follow them carry rumour if na play stop am o!

I dont think the president or whoever will be that stupid though if in the unlikeliest event that it happens Nigeria's credit rating will nose-dive like a rocket out of control and what will happen to the stock market i dont even want to contemplate!

Mariwo:
My brother, thanks for asking. I've been buried at a customer site due to a critical project escalation. Still on but got some breathing space today.

Haba! u don change your identity be dat?

ebony9ja:
Deap capital- live from the floor.

DEAP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT AND TRUST PLC
AUDITED ACCOUNT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30TH SEPTEMBER, 2007.
2007 2006
TURNOVER N739.5m N296.8m
PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION N331.1m N99.8m
TAXATION (N22.6m) (N8.5m)
PROFIT AFTER TAXATION N308.5m N91.4m
PROPSED DIVIDENDS N0.13K
PROPOSED BONUS ISSUE 1:2 CLOSURE OF REGISTER FEBRUARY 12 TO 14, 2008.


For the lucky holders of this stock- I say congrats. Now I can count till 12th,

They have grown PAT by ~238% sure they will allow this to ride for a few days/weeks and then TS is a slam dunk!

BTW: has anybody seen or herad from Pumping777? quite unlike him to do AWOL on us

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1895103#msg1895103 date=1201520263]Early feelers from the market today shows that NB have gained 2.24. Is this an indicator of what will happen? Is any pending results ready to be released?[/quote]Yep their FY is Dec '07 so results at least interim may be due any time from now and coupled with rumours of dividends/bonus(i'm not saying this is the case) you know the rest of the story!

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1894477#msg1894477 date=1201507598]@roughcut, UNIC ins. has a P/E of 50+, and you are recommending it, what of Lasaco at 7+ and linkage at 7+. Are those ones not better buys? or am I missing something here?[/quote][quote][/quote]UNIC has a trailing PE ratio of 44.1 and a forward PE of 27.1 with PAT expected to grow at ~40-45% only about 3-4 insurance coys have better fundamentals at the moment so that is exactly what peeps are buying into and the basis of my recommendation!

So you are definitely missing something

[quote author=ty_ademolu link=topic=31554.msg1894503#msg1894503 date=1201508398]In as much as you do not recommend insurance stocks now, I think those going on TS would be a good candidate for capital appreciation POST TS.

If the prices are going northward post TS why don't you take long term positions now, when there is a very high likelihood of oversubscription during the public offer.

In my own opinion, the insurance stocks going on public offer might be a good candidate to position for, as their prices would definately go northwards post technical suspension.

So why not buy now and wait?[/quote]Nope i did not say i do not recommend insurance stocks for now i said don't buy ins stocks that are likely to go on TS soon. If you try to digest the 'meat' of my post i implied that ins stocks will be one of the best performing sectors on the NSE based on the simple fact that after TS a lot of the ins companies will be ready for Q2, Q3 and Q4 results so there's a lot of scope there if you want to roll-on roll-off(RO-RO or CICO and even if you are in it for the medium-long term that will be the time to buy. Its a question of availability and timing!

Why do you want to buy when a stock is on TS? it will be virtually impossible to shift the stock you are better off waiting till after TS is lifted and carefully time your entry before Q2, Q3 and FY results.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1894477#msg1894477 date=1201507598]@roughcut, UNIC ins. has a P/E of 50+, and you are recommending it, what of Lasaco at 7+ and linkage at 7+. Are those ones not better buys? or am I missing something here?[/quote]Not sure if you are talking trailing or forward PE but the issue now those two stocks you actually mentioned are going on TS before Q1! so the PE ratio for now in that instance is of less relevance. If the person that asked the original question is quite happy to invest in stocks going on TS then the PE ratio will come into the equation.

I was pitching for CI Leasing sometime in OCT last year and peeps were of the opinion that because its PE was in the 30's it wasnt necessarily a good buy but what most people forgot is that the company grew PAT by a whopping 250% within a year and now we know better! For me that is what i'm buying into and that is the potential i'm tapping into. If a company has the potential of more than doubing its PAT obviously its PE ratio will be a lot more respectable.

PE ratio alone does not tell the whole story!

ACL:
Fo2.roughcut

Can u please help me out on these.


When do u think i can dispose my mutual benefit, bought @3:10 (200,000 unit.)
sometime i do long time or short time and what can i buy.
have just added a new broker because the previous one annoyed me.their service is so poor,their office is crowded and their boss gives them a target that is very high.

i have 250k ( guess its change to u guys) buying 4k UBA as soon as my new cscs acct is opened:: reasonable or what do u suggest.

From my rough estimates you have made ~40% based on the closing price of N4.37 on that stock so you can sell 100-150K units and you can use that to load more UBA and UNIC is also looking good at the moment.

Be wary of a lot of the  insurance stocks if reports filtering through are to be believed a lot of them will be coming to the market before Q1 of '08 to raise fresh funds to meet the recapitalization requirements and the last thing you need is for you to be holding a stock that is on TS but as far as i'm aware dont think UNIC is in that category but check though but it looks good to enter

The insurance stocks that are not coming to the market soon are entering a stabilization phase at least after Q1. After the TS is lifted on the stocks that will be approaching the market probably around Q2 you can expect a northward movement in the share price of these stocks as a lot of peeps will be positioning for Q3 and Q4 almost all the ins companies have FY at December so its an interesting period in the insurance sector.

Dont buy ins stocks that are likely to go on TS soon!

samstone4:
@AKT, Nairalanders

I am an old hand on LSE stocks, although mostly dealt with IPOs and Privatisations.
Must advise you to be very very cautious in going into the LSE, indeed any Western stock exchange. There are extremely limited opportunities for making a killing. All news about shares are usually uniformly known except for very closed knit inner circles of trader. The brokers are more professional but you will get advice only to buy stocks they are trying to dump.
These are generalisations but should serve as warning and guide.

Samstone4

Those markets are too organized and  too strict for individual investors a substantial proportion of the participants are institutional investors and mutual funds not meant for peeps like you and me who will like to take profits on a weekly basis!

Naijadr:
Roughtcut I dey on board o, might take some out after I reach 30% profit, and keep rest for FY results

Yep that's the way to do it i will be checking  to make sure the fuel  in Skye jet can sustain the flight all the way to Q2 because that one na slap and dash no stopping for refuelling while i still dey  on board bank PHB and Costain

FatherOF2:
@ Roughcut,

  How now,how body.Dem say dirty block the line when dey supply fuel to our right engine. captain still dey work on am.
  I dey do some small isle exercise to pass away the time before them repair am finish.
 
@ Upward

   I just call my brother, e say una dey enjoy correct service inside the PZ airline.
 Anything when happen to am, happen to me oh.

I still dey wait for the biscuit and the tea wey you dey serve o! He be like say you take style bypass me. Even if i go refuel i go still join plane kia kia for the Q3 results. At least the left engine still dey kampe

He be like say na only me dey onboard Costain  i beg FO2 if you dey identify yourself abi you dey gist with air-hostess again for inside cabin?

windywendy:
Hahaha! I remember that time! Me sef wan enter back then, but no volume. But even at today's price, it's still very cheap! Those guys have a niche market and are growing a lot (Abi Mypeace no be true I talk? ). I don't see this price fall lasting too long, so I'm averaging down on this one.

Even Redstar Express that listed in the same sector a few months ago i think for around N3  only about 4 people were moving the stock around so no show for moi!

They made sure they pumped up the price i think it's done about 160% now so they  are just waiting for the thing to go on TS

windywendy:
Yes they did. And yours truly is happily picking up some units and will average down on this one. Cheap company with interesting potential!

Myself and Stock Marshall wanaj0 we beg Mypeace tire make she let us in on the action when the stock was <N1.00 she no gree do anything! She works for that company!

faketan:
Bros no be say I like them. I no go go Wema lailai. Them case be the same sha but I don over hear people talk about spring but I wanted to see if there is anything positive about them.

The only  positive thing  about them is that they are floating a subsidiary called SpringMortgage which apparently is doing well on the NSE before Q1 '08. The bank nothing dey for them o!

aktopgun:
got any contacts of brokers who can take on an individual investor who doesnt yet have the pockets of rockefeller?

would appreciate it.

Natwest also  have the brokerline share dealing account you even get online access to monitor your portfolio like CSCS and they charge a flat fee of £12-15 and you can also deal in some off-shore shares.

For more info you can visit http://www.natwest.com/personal02.asp?id=PERSONAL/SAVE_AND_INVEST/SHAREDEALING/BROKERLINE_ACCOUNT

TD Water house is highly recommended

afamako:
@Hbrednic
I hope say people no go fall for this one o. them wan charge you 2% management fee and on top of that 20% of your profit? that na craze.

Its a fund which means your subscription is part of a 'larger' pool of funds that invests in a telecomms business probably MTN but i'm not sure so dont quote me. Anyway the 'koko' is that Lead  capital will take 20% of the profit or returns which they may re-invest in the fund after which they will distrubute the profit to the subscribers in the fund according to the proportion of your investment. Treat the investment as a mutual fund or unit trust.

aktopgun:
i know about uba but i am talking about intercontinental from 18th dec and we never even hear from them and the broker dey tell me say "na naija we dey". its this kind of attitude that i don't appreciate about my fellow nigerians sometimes.

can he call the broker to confirm the sending of the dividend?

A beg o which dividend u dey talk about? They paid some dividends last year around october or thereabouts dont even know how much it is now. If it is this one you will have to request a cancellation of the dividend warrant  (if its not paid into your account direct) if its more than 6 months and get a new warrant one sent out to you.

It is easier if you give your broker your bank account number and the registrars will credit your account straight away so no more tory

aktopgun:
@eniyanman

hispy is right, i just checked the report. your calculations were spot on then. bottom line its a good company to buy if u can stomach the cavalier reputation of the MD

cant be any worse than that of Omoyeni

aktopgun:
@roughcut

thanks man, i believe it too. i am carrying him with one hand and typing this. he is fine. we await the physical manifestation of the spiritual reality in jesus name.

seems u've been real busy counnting your dosh lately, u rarely post up now. u're becoming one of the dreaded deep  pocket silent readers    

Your faith shall be honoured in Jesus name. Faith is the substance of things hoped for and the evidence of things not yet seen. Tobe's total restoration is done and you will share the physical manifestation with us on this thread soonest!

I shuttle between Zurich and London and some part of me in Naija so it can be a bit challenging  keeping up with this thread but God has been so good so we just have to THANK Baba God o_{Awi mayehun Alewi lese}! To him be all the glory

aktopgun:
@hispy



uba is 49.62
afribank is 26.3

if u believe trw-stockbrokers that is

Homeboy how everything dey on the homefront? All is well with Tobechukwu IJN

oshkosh:
One good that can come out of this is that it sends a message to Bank executives. Better it happened to Wema than to the Firstbanks, Zeniths, UBA's etc of Nigeria. That one for be fire for fire.

I think you will find that those guys are too smart to be taking N90M housing loan from their banks if what i have read from the news flying about are true!

bigjay01:
I still de carry my own excess baggage of 100kg. I think I'll have 2 wait for a very very long time, but I am geared up 4 it. Miracles still de happen

Well everyone needs a miracle but believe me WEMA needs all these bad 'publicity' like a bullet in the head! They spent billions of naira at the expense of increasing PAT to 'clean' their books and now this happens. The only saving grace is for WEMA bank to be given a 'clean' bill of health as per their financials. If it is the issue with Omoyeni and corporate governance  then that can be managed at least he's gone on leave he cannot come back from

BTW: A'good' Q3 results and if they come off TS before releasing the results will help but then who knows wetin the new 'oga' go do

kpineo:
this doesn't look like good news for Wema, maybe those results were even cooked. At least nairalanders made their money and have moved on.

No not by any stretch of imagination but you mentioned the 'koko' n'landers made their money and sharpening their claws for what WEMA has to offer_{yours included} looks like WEMA is a 'damaged' brand now and that does not bode well for the shareholders at all. I'm still carrying excess  WEMA luggage of ~25000KG after all the weight i tried to shed before they went on TS.

Looks like i might have to 'auction' off what i'm stuck with now and there are still 23.5M units of the stock looking for  buyers na wa o!

dollyp1cute:
Analysis paralysis like someone will say.


As e.g. I bought FCMB @N8 just because I liked their website
Ok not really, also googled them up, read all the news and watched price for a while. Intuitively decided to buy because everybody was shouting oceanic.

Well that would not be a  strange thing in itself someone said yesterday on this thread  he bought ETERNA OIL or is it CAPOIL? without even hearing the name anywhere before in his life before he bought just because it had oil in the name and he made 3200%!

Makes you wonder sometimes if too much analysis does lead to Analysis paralaysis. Actually as it happens the first stock i bought on NSE in '04 was ACCESS @ N1.65_{wont even bother with the percentage appreciation now} just because a family friend was working there at the time and she needed to sell shares!

bigjay01:
Pumping, thanks a lot. I wanted to know if there is away of going round it (opening a new A/C 4 son & daughter especially)

Honestly I can't find anything so stupid or dippy or daft with my question. Anyway 'Mr Risky' has told me everything I need to know about him

I opened an an account with GTB for my son so all the dividends for the shares we bought in his name go straight into the account. All you need do is send passport pictures of your children to naija and get an adult(preferably family) to stand in as the legal guardian/guarantor and there you go!

Guk:
People,

With all the hullabaloo on WEMA Bank, how much is it best to sell off NOW!!!

Hmmnnn if you are able to sell let me know. Its on TS and there are about 38M units of that stock on offer and with all the shenanigans going on it has made a difficult job more difficult! don't know how you can shift what you have now but in case you do let me know sha

windywendy:
oooookkkkk. Here's the analysis on MTN I promised _{una go pay me oh, 'because I put in time to do this}  


From my perspective, MTN is a good deal for the following reasons:

1. With regard to the company’s market, there is a lot of growth potential there. Apart from the mobile network coverage which they’ve been growing substantially, they’re also branching out into fixed wireless telecoms. In 2006 they acquired VGC (a PTO), which gives them a foothold in the corporate market. The most exciting part of that acquisition to me is the domestic VSAT and international gateway licenses. With all of the banks and other companies doing their branch expansion, most of them use VSAT to interconnect their branches _{(I’m no techie here, but I did look up wikipedia for some of these stuff).} VSAT is the same technology used to transmit narrowband data for POS transactions such as credit cards, and broadband data for the provision of Satellite Internet access to remote locations, VoIP _{(remember skype??)} or video _{(think video conferencing, etc).} So as more and more banks roll out their credit / debit cards and ATMs and also expand branches, they’ll be making more and more demand on this technology, which I hear is amongst the most efficient. The fact that the company also has international gateway licenses means that they can carry voice and data internationally. So I can imagine that MTN will be top choice for companies demanding such services, esp. if those companies are looking to expand internationally. Also, don’t forget that with the international gateway license, MTN can also carry voice and data for other PTOs (Private Telecom Operators) who hitherto used to depend on NITEL [sub[i]](sorry Transcorp investors), [/i] [/sub] especially if they can do so at a cheaper rate. The VGC acquisition was definitely a very smart move on MTN’s part. The only word I can use to describe the market potential here is HUGE!!!! Mind you, banks are not the only potential users of this technology. Any company that operates in more than one location and needs to have all those locations talking to one another electronically will be needing this technology. SSSWEEEETTTT!!!!
2. The company acquired a license for 3G services sometime in March or April 2007. With this, they can provide voice, video, multimedia, web browsing, video streaming and surveillance and broadband services amongst others. I mean, just thinking about the broadband services alone, and I’m like whao   ! You only need to experience broadband connectivity, and it’ll be a matter of minutes before the dial-up gets thrown out. Potential market would be both individuals and corporates. From the looks of things, MTN has started working intensely on infrastructure to roll out this service. They recently raised a $2billion loan facility _{(which by the way was over 200% subscribed by banks – I mean, who no like beta tin ),} and so far, it looks like they’re the only operator investing sums of that magnitude since the acquisition of the 3G license (heard Glo is doing something, but haven’t seen much in the papers – perhaps they’re doing theirs without as much pump . . ._{sorry Pumping, no intention to use  your name  )}
3. From a valuation perspective, this company is cheap! I mean, who makes EBITDA margins of over 50%?? . This company is a cash cow! They definitely know how to use leverage to maximize returns to shareholders. Return on Equity consistently over 40% (even as high as 84% in ’04) and return on assets consistently over 20%. I’m like   . And yet PAT margins are still growing! The fascinating thing about these guys is that despite all of the growth, they’ve been able to keep costs under control. I LIKE THAT!!!. What this tells me is that most of the future topline growth (which is virtually certain) will find it’s way to the bottomline. Based on my analysis, projected P/E for 2007 is about 11 (projected EPS of N260.6 at a price of $24.56), which is cheap considering the multiples we’re seeing for other companies on the NSE _{(which is what I would consider as alternative investment outlets for now).} Projected P/E for 2011 is less than 3.5 – and this assumes a 50% EPS growth rate for the 3years until 2011. Considering the growth potential this company has, _{(I mean, market penetration for mobile phones is still less than 30% in Nigeria. Subscriber base is projected to increase to 52million by 2011, which is less than half of the country’s population, and I believe MTN will have a substantial if not majority share of that. Add to that the market for their vsat and internet services . . . think BROADBAND!! )} I believe the growth rate I’ve assumed is extremely conservative. A P/E of less than 3.5 is extremely cheap, going by the multiples on major stock exchanges around the world. Granted, we’re not sure on which exchange the shares of the exit SPV will be listed, but with a P/E like that one, you can be sure of significant capital appreciation on any major stockexchange, especially for a company like MTN _{(by the way, did I mention that MTNI is a staple stock in the international portfolio of several of the big portfolio managers here in the US – I’m talking investment management shops like Fidelity and Co.)} operating in a sector like Telecoms, which enjoys huge investor sentiment around the globe – they had to turn down banks wanting to lend them money for crying out loud!!! And did anyone notice that IFC refused to sell out any of its stake to make room for investment by Nigerian investors??. These guys aren’t issuing new shares, which is something they very easily have done to raise money. And I can bet that if they had decided to issue new shares, there would have been massive oversubscription. But NO, they decided to go get a loan instead – kind of like keeping the loot in the family innit? I LIKE THEM!!  

Dividend yield from my calculation is about 13% gross on an annual basis. Considering the yield you would get on a fixed deposit in a good bank, I’ld say this yield isn’t bad. Besides, how many stocks on major exchanges around the world offer such yields?? And when you factor in the potential capital appreciation at the end of the waiting period, hmmmm . . . _{I’ld leave you to complete the statement.}

BOTTOMLINE: This company has a really good (almost essential) product in a market with astronomical growth rates. It also has a solid management team that seems to have its strategy together. It’s an innovative company with very clear foresight. I like their marketing strategy and the partnerships they’re forming. I also like the fact that they’re using debt to significantly enhance returns to equity holders _{look at those debt/EBITDA margins, they’ve dropped from over 71% to about 40% and yet debt has increased}. I especially like the fact that they’re good on the cost management thing. If you’re into long term investing, this is one really good deal.

@Wanaj0, I read the article(s) about GLO surpassing MTN in subscriber numbers. I won’t say I’m too worried by that as there’s no evidence that MTN actually lost market share. Infact, the number of subscribers increased during that period. Plus since then, they’ve acquired a $2billion loan and have started investing heavily in infrastructure to expand their network. I hear they’re moving rapidly into the hinterlands (outside of the major cities like Lagos, PH and Abuja). The good thing is that now they can offer more services with their 3G license -- they can bundle the other services (like multimedia, web browsing and video streaming) with their mobile phone services in targeting new customers in those areas. The expansion is properly timed in my opinion! Let’s wait for numbers that will come out in Q2 of this year and you might be hearing a different story as per subscriber base between MTN and GLO.

@Pumping777: I was on board that PHB flight oh! But I got off yesterday at maximum comfort level to take advantage of some insurance opportunities capable of flying at higher altitudes than that which the fuel left in that PHB plane can allow it go. Make you land the plane safely oh . . .

@Roughcut: size doesn’t matter huh? I’m guessing the saying doesn’t apply to the wallet or pocket or purse size right?

By the way, did anyone catch PRESCO at N14 last week? I saw it and I was like WOW!!!   Kia, I called my broker and the deal was done, sealed and delivered  . At that price, the company had the highest dividend yield on the exchange!

Laters!

Haba! u  too much oga ju!

crazyT:
If I am a white man you’ll surely see me blushing , I know you are pulling my legs and for the guru of the guru’s to say this about my unconventional methods means a lot.

But on the other hand it shows how God really do use unconventional ways to help poor souls as mine.

Before I join NSE (February last year) I have lost more than 70million Naira in doing different businesses in Nigeria.

But God’s name be praised I have re-equip all my money back with intrest on top.

You must be the #1 contender for the most improved n'lander award

wanaj0:
See you are a GURU. Apart from OIL what other word should we look out for when picking a stock on the NSE. If it can give you 3200% and 2600% why change the strategy? Remember you don't change a winning team. Please make me your disciple OOOO.


What really is UBN offering that otehr banks are not better at doing. Just name one!!!!!!! Abeg, let that sleeping giant continue its sleep!

Stock marshall wanaj0 iif na play make you stop am o

There 100,000 reasons the giant must wake up from its sleep o

dollyp1cute:
Abeg don't prove Wanjao right o, about Nigeria and books. Just print the thing, make a cup of coffee and pretend you are back in uni. Only this time your exams results will be money in bank .

As we speak i'm on page 7