₦airaland Forum

easimoni:
BTW, have you all downloaded and read the Afrinvest report on the banking sector in Nigeria? A very detailed, well written and aesthetically pleasing report. Some analysts are really earning their money. Anyway, the report is very bullish on Union bank and claims they are in some sort of PP mode to raise 180B. Anyone with more concrete gist? Some yabis for GTBank and Wema Bank was not even mentioned as a mid-tier bank. Good report. Read it!

http://www.proshareng.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/afrinvest-nigeria-banking-report-2008.pdf

That report is 88 pages! what time you get to read am and more importantly what time do you get to sleep?

Keeping up with nairaland is a job on its own and coupled with some other things. Abeg just give us the koko in one or two paragarphs jare

Temmie10:
FCMB's forecast PAT according to their prospectus was 16 billion , so i would regard that 10 billion PAT as being too conservative.

Based on current performance as per half-year results they have done ~N5.4B that gives a forward PAT of ~N10B for full-year you think the Q3 and Q4 results will make up  the shortfall of N5B which is like a black hole in their PL account. Methinks N15B is very optimistic and that was my problem with the prospectus

pumping777:
Make I remind una of 2 of the golden stocks from last week. Japaul and CILeasing. Na to award them golden globe awards.

For now, these stocks require no analysis. If you did not buy your tickets at a cinema near you last week, I will have to tell you about the film. Fine actors I heard.

I have been pitching for those two since October last year

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=31554.msg1659598#msg1659598

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1597905#msg1597905

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1548766#msg1548766

FatherOF2:
Make we pray say skye bank people no dey here oh, so them fit sell.
Some no know say TS dey,when them here,them go wan vex sell,but if them read this thread them go wait.

Na wa o! i hope say queue to  enter the jet no go too long. Anyway me dey come thru  presidential wing sha. I wan jump on and jump off and hopefully i go land before their YE for March make i come reconnect flights  with bank PHB for the June YE flight

pumping777:
Just place your order. This one na small aircraft and no standy passengers.

Q-1 Result   Turnover/PAT - 12.5B/2.8B
Outstanding shares without PO shares to be listed - 7.5B. (I don't know why you want to use this figure sha)

Even with the PO shares and 25% oversubscription, the forward PE is around 17. Chei!!!

As i dey inside PHB jet even at cruising altitude i don dey do 'giraffe neck' for terminal for the best possible seat on Skye supersonic jet even as the jet dey for ground

blueband:
I placed an order for SkyeBank and ZenithBank and my broker has not been able to get any for me.Gave her the order last week monday.Are they that scarce?

Another issue-I have been unable to sell Lasaco twice now.When it hit 4.80kobo in early January I had a sell price of 4.40kobo yet my broker could not sell.I reduced the sell price to 4.20kobo and uptil today she has not been able to sell.When I contacted her yesterday she said something about them having many customers with Lasaco wanting to offload and it does appear preference is being given to some, is this possible?

In case you havent noticed Skyebank and Zenith are both on  TS!

pumping777:
My reference to refueling na just to say the price fit see downside for some time on the floor yesterday and not stay on 5% max gain all day. Some may have offloaded some luggage at that point. Not me sha. I no offload nada from my luggage rara till I reach cruising altitude and then ejector button one time! Swoosh!

I don dey eye the Skye bank flight when it comes off TS as their YE is March dont forget they have just released 'good' Q3 results so hopefully i can get on the supersonic jet and just enough time to bail out before i reconnect on PHB jet again for the YE results expected in July.

Why does Roll-On Roll-off(RORO) sound better than CICO?

FatherOF2:
Hahahahahahahah, easimoni,leave CAPTAIN now. The guy dey fly plane and e get open mind.
You no see say na only AIRBUS AND BOEING e dey fly, e no dey fly Aeroflot from Russia.
Captain i dey enjoy this PHBflight oh.Na armed robber profit i just dey collect for this stock.
E be like my N32 target will even be exceeded at this jet speed.That will be my MURDER of the month of Jan.
Na double chopping go dey this stock this year.

Wey passenger Roughcut and Kpineo.Abi una go dey follow airhostess dey gist.

i wan follow Pumping stop small for mid-air refuelling yesterday but i decided against it i still dey seriously on board just go inside the luggage compartment to check say my 75,000KG luggage still dey kampe!

A beg where ololufemi dey sit sef window or aisle?

As i don dey married now wifey go vex if she come know say i dey 'chat' with air hostess so i no follow go gist with air hostess o

windywendy:
Quick answer to your question is: NO. MTN Nigeria has far higher growth prospects than MTNI and operates in a very different market. Unlike MTNI which operates in a more mature market. Valuation should therefore be different.

Don't have time to post now but will post my analysis on MTN Nigeria tomorrow or thereabout. Needless to say, it's a very very solid offer at $24.56 (which is the offer price, and also the price at which IBTC is offering it). In my opinion, 3 years is worth the wait for this.

From what i can make out from this investment vehicle it looks a bit like a unit trust where the $24.95 entitles an investor to a number of units which is part of a bigger 'pool' and the dividends accruable to each investor is in proportion to the units you have. Remember that the profits attributable MTN Nigeria  out of which dividends will be paid(after admin costs and fees)  is transferred to IBTC nominee account or company which acts on behalf of the investors(this structure is like a unit trust and i think they call it mutual funds in naija. The nominee structure is the reason why no shareholder will be issued a certificate in the first 3 years   because everything will be owned IBTC Asset Management nominee account or company and all dividends will now be transferred to individual shareholders in the 'pool' or unit trust. Your shareholding is represented by the units you own

A unit trust and OEIC(open ended investment company) are very similar except that for unit trust it has a specific period of time for which it should operate(closed funds) which is why the nominee investment vehicle by IBTC Asset Management will be for 3 years. You can however liquidate your units by selling and your returns net of admin fees and expenses paid to you. After the 3-year period the  unit trust or nominee structure now becomes an IT(Investment Trust) which is the exit SPV in which all the unit holders will become shareholders of the exit SPV the difference here is that the unit trust has now become an open ended investment company(OEIC) or IT and hopefully your units are worth many times more!

If you want to cut and run after 3 years(assuming you have made more money than sense) IBTC Asset Management nominee structure will be happy to buy your units from you  at the market price or if you want to carry on your units  simply qualifies you to  become a shareholder in the exit SPV or IT and carry on collecting your  FAT dividends!

MTN Nigeria gross revenue half-year june '07 is N173B(i think this is a cash cow!) and forward  EPS has been estimated N12.89 by proshareng.com

Half-year operating expenses is about N65B(38% of gross revenue) that gives a gross profit before taxes of around N108B and if expenses before interest, taxes etc(EBITDA) is around 58% margin according to proshareng.com so PAT for half-year '07 comes in at around N46B annualized gives a forward PAT for full-year '07 as N92B! _{pleae tell me am so so wrong!}

Is it possible that MTN Nigeria will be making this kind of money from a subscriber base of about 14M?

If you need to learn about unit trusts and OEIC's please visit http://www.trustnet.com/help/ut/?rtype=2

windywendy:
@Yodiyokun, LOL!!! okunrin meta in this my petite 5ft 2in frame weighing in at 59kg? I no sabi o. Chei, you too funny sha! i've missed you guys! Will be posting later this week as my schedule might free up some more then.

What's  that saying again? Size does not matter!

Men are in sizes life is in phases

FatherOF2:
You no say na pidgin english we like for niger.
Make i speak pidgin english.

When you put DRY SAND INTO CUP TO FORM HILL FOR THE CUP,ADD SMALL WATER TO ONE QUARTER,GIVE THE CUP SOME SUBTLE VIBRATIONS,ALL THE SAND HILL GO DISSOLVE INTO THE WATER. Earthquake effect. _{Don't try this at home}.
The Earthquake in this case go be the massive selling when go hit your stock.

Forget about Earthquake i think the word you are looking for is  Tsunami??

kpineo:
how can PHB from 51M bid and exchanged ony 12M today now have a bid of less than 1M something is suspect here. am watching closely. Please fasten your seat belts i sense some temporary turbulence ahead. Someone wants to cause panic sell and then buy at a lower price. Nairalanders be watchful.

Thanks to Nairaland and my experience with NASCON am a lot smarted now. Someone asked me about BigTreat just yesterday, say the thing dey rise make e put money there.    

I advise him not to unless he will be happy to receive 1 years free bread supply in exchange for his funds, dah
As for me and my house we are on board PHB without fear.


PS. Britsh Airways crash landed at Heathrow London today. Lets pray for journey mercies for all our friends and family oh!

That would be a good deal if the price of bread dey beyond  the reach of the common man as i no know how much dem dey sell bread for naija i no fit comment further

Thank God for small mercies o.

aktopgun:
@hrebnic

liquefaction - a degradative process of slow decomposition brought about by the body's own enzymes turning against its cells and basically causing a dissolving process . rough medical definition

i hope i have thoroughly confused u!!! .

what were we talking about?

This is what happens when you jump from med school into the nigerian stock market

Hope everything dey ok on the homefront sha

Well WEMA caught me out three-quarters of the way last time so i expect another master-stroke from them this time but i think i'm ready though
I will be boarding the  A380 or should it be Boeing 787 Dream-liner this time around!

This jet  has WEMA written all over it. i will soon disembark or should i eject? i'm looking at Monday/Tuesday next week from PHB to catch my breath and take a connecting flight on UNIC and then i can board WEMA and/or ACCESS.  I have heard somebody mention GTB_{accusing fingers pointing at F02 and Yodi} making a refuelling stop before month end  

pumping777:
We talked about Fidelity last week. Profit taking will be ripe by next week.

Folks already alerted us to Afribank today. It will happen. This dip will stop and the stock will rise. They will most likely support it with some rumour and then back it with some interim result.

Also we already know that there may be 2 interim results almost back to back. Wema, Access. Whatever, the price will rise beyond the TS price iin the short run and then it's time smile to the bank.

Did someone say PZ, ? Yes, another candidate. Agreed the price is falling because of the mediocre results, but some people are not even aware of results and just buy. But this one needs to fall some more sha.

I hope you noticed ACCESSS released interim Q3 results today  or was it yesterday and that was impressive so no surprises it put on some weight today you will have to take your turn for the profit takers to do their business and strike when they are all done in readiness for full-year in March/April

I can bet you WEMA will release interim Q3 results after coming off TS assuming the results are as expected then it wont make any sense for them to release the 'good' news into the public domain while still on TS so i guess they probably do both lift TS and release 'good' results.

They ride on the crest of the waves generated by the results then go on TS for the much awaited PO_{hopefully i have sussed them out this time} I still had  25K units of ACCESS after offloading almost 100K before they moved the goal posts and slapped us with TS.

They said they would  do the PO before the end of the first quarter but then it would be close to their YE  not sure how they want to manoeuvre there

FatherOF2:
Sorry i no finish the story before. After she say make i sit straight, she tell me say the person when get the seat dey toilet.
The JET speed be dey make am pressed.

I for talk say i no see empty seat o! The jet speed come dey make my head spin small small!

I think ololufemi still dey count him millions na so i no see him rear light for inside where i dey

FatherOF2:
Yeah man, i still dey the JET oh well well. Did you see the HIGH/LOW====SAME PRICE. Amazing jet.
I just tighten my belt well well, i come even spread my leg for one empty seat next to me.Na passenger when fear to enter the jet be get the seat.
But air hostess say make i sitdown straight.

You sure say empty seat dey for inside this jet? When the jet don make re-entry   dat one na the signal  for those wey enter the train to begin do their business i go don comot for jet that time sha dey ready for the Q3 results. That would be the time to refuel the jet again for another mach-2 flight

If PHB does another 5% tomorrow it will be on the home run and hopefully it will be a direct hit  on Monday and UNIC is within striking distance of  the entry or is it re-entry? point.  When the PHB jet decelerates  for mid-air refuelling  before Q3 results due in March/April then it should be good to rejoin the  flight and ride all the way till the Q3 results are released hopefully the additional shares listed will not slow down the jet too much!

Monday next week is looking very interesting indeed!

rasputinn:
@Roughcut,sorry what was the Angola stuff again,please send lowdown 2 ma email addy getdon@usa.com

Stuff about  opportunities to be unleashed on the long awaited Angolan stock exchange. When it happens we will have to move this discussion to a  new thread but you can read the last 10 or so pages i think to catch up on what is being said about Angola

When it happens you will know

No shaking!

yodiyokun:
Leave tax return matter - I was studying for it ojere.

some of us be JJC to this North amercian yeye tax return wahala.

Mean while na office work keep me busy

Diamond Bank ooooo , It didnt appreciate today - waiting for it to reach 30% so I can bail out.

Thank God I didnt sell all my Lawunion - enjoying 68% apart from commission now. But no volume chei!!!

Is it too late to get on PHB train? at this their recent result - PE is just 22 ?? abi

Train ke? ok you no get ticket for the jet. That's a difficult one to call though remember that once certificates are sent out and verified profit takers will descend and the PO shares will be listed before the Q3 results due around about march/april. You can probably strike when the profit takers have done their business bt before Q3 results timing very crucial.

As per entering now too close to call but i guess its going to be on strong bid before the PO subscribers or is it those who are taking the train? pounce
it went from 36M yesterday to 50M today on full bid

oxfordkid:
@rough cut
how u dey ?im interested in this angola thing oo feel me in too my email be yabiola007@yahoo.com so i go fit throw you welcome party for oxford when you finally come here

sent you an e-mail already and i will be looking forward to nairaland extra large party

pumping777:
I am smelling interim result for Fidelity Bank. See the kin Ben Johnson movement.

This one is a hot air balloon and the wind is very strong right now but I must launch my parachute before we run out of wind   whoosh

Fidelity bank has just come off  TS right? If the results are as expected i think the air stream pushing your balloon upwards should be very strong then this one don pass hot-air.Hopefully they are not blowing hot-air_{figuratively speaking}

yodiyokun:
@all
how una dey?

I have been so busy that I have right now well over 15 pages to catch up - chei na wa for una guys ooo.

To report back, my lead capital people sat up eventually not yet 100% but at least much better.

Anyway, what is going on with this insurance sector? haba, up down everywhere.

I hope to join you guys back in the game fully this weekend.

Chao

I don't know how you guys that have been in this business for  along time keep up constantly - its soo time consuming!!!.

Windy wendy? how you dey get time do your analysis? abi NSE na you full time job

Anybody got a course on Time management!! lol!!!

I understand you dey do tax returns at the minute i beg you fit apply for a refund of the little tax wey i pay for some 'dodgy' offshore jurisdiction

@aktopgun

I hope everything dey okay. We never hear from you. All is well in Jesus name

easimoni:
I have more units for sale than I have hairs on my head Not that it means much since I'm balding (or is it thinning? )
Anyway, contact me jooooooooooooo!

cant say i'm surprised your hair dey thin with all the books you dey read

Ola007:
True, I have also seem worst things happen in Spain on TV here.

That one na helele o.  I read of  a british elderly couple that went there to retire and now their  house would have to be demolished because some corrupt local official took bribes from developers to develop without planning permision.

They probably scraped all their life-savings together and sold their property in the UK for a house in the sun

koksieboy:
Did u notice me waving some seats away from you on same jet?

We will need to do a headcount of all n'landers on the flight start identifying yourselves if you are on the flight i know pumping777, ololufemi and FO2 are all accounted for anyone i have missed out

kpineo:
Bros, thanks for this info, but pardon me to ask for the source. Cos PHB just went from 36M bid yesterday to 50M bid. i think am going to enjoy this one.
Father of 2 were art thou,

Yes you dey correct. Which one be your seat number on the jet abi you dey business/first class. Well he no matter as long as i dey on board and no turbulence

4wheel:
Thanks man, I was at a crossroad at some point and wondered what was going to happen. The TS slapped me by surprised before I cld say jack, but then it was too late to shed.

Thanks again.

No worries. I had ~150K units but i was ale to shed the weight down to 25K before they slapped the TS on us. If you had been following the trend of what was happening to WEMA about a month before going on TS or if you had been on nairaland_{i havent started learning TA then} you would have known something was up

Anyway nothing spoil!

Ola007:
Russia and Bulgaria ke? I fear those countries o.

The problem is you have to be there to dispel all these things you hear. I have been in real estate in Bulgaria since '05 and i can tell in you in all honesty i cannot complain at all. 

You just need  reliable and reputable agents who know how to plough their way through the bureaucratic and domestic conundrum

Russia: i have not been there and i don't desire to go there like i said not my cup of tea so can't say much!

Dont forget it is the same Gazprom that is trying to muscle in on the nigerian oil and gas industry so it goes both ways!

kevyngbash:
Guys, make we meet for MIAMI na lloma I dey Luanda too. holla me at cojese at yahoo dot com

If you are a Nigerian coming to angola for the first time, you are definetly going to see opportunities everywhere, that is if you have some ´business mind´

You all know how they treat Nigerian even in africa, Even Liberia the other day started giving Nigerians headache. Other african nations think that Nigerians are ´´too pushy´ so by default, they treat you with lots of apathy and distrust.
I have seen Nigerian in Luanda who have been here even during the war. They have survived and the ones I saw are making it.For me, Roughcut got it right: you can invest through a third party (ibo men . I am ibo too oo)

I work in the telecoms sector in angola. Competition is not encouraged here.
Angola made her first GSM call in 2001 but till today there is only 1 GSM network (with vast interest of the president´s daughter)
Their service offering is nothing close to what you get from other network elsewhere. Minimum recharge is close to 1.5K.

Well, sha, motor kill, motor carry.all die na die. The name of the game na risk.

To buttress the point you made i think Telecomms is one of the areas listed as the exclusive preserve of the government which by extension means the president and his family so foreign investment will not necessarily be encouraged in that sector!

As dey talk am for my village he no matter whether the man see snake and the woman come kill am as long as the snake don die chikena!_{shout out to jehoshaphat}

4wheel:
Hello gurus,

I have about 70k units of Wema and i have made some 34% on it. Should i sell now or wait for the so-called share reconstruction coming up?
I need your advice, una biko!

I think it will be a bit difficult to shift that lot while on TS unless they release impressive Q3 results but they definitely wont do that while its on TS so i would wait for the results and better still lifting of TS.

Like you said you don't know what they are going to come up with. They have 10B shares outstanding already and they are shopping for N150B so if they do a reverse split of 2 for 1 that means they cancel half of their outstanding shares and to maintain the same share capital the price of the stock will have to be adjusted to double the price as it is now_{don't see WEMA selling for N30 though}

These are conjectures and permutations as they have proved in the past they are master tacticians so i would wait

[list]
For Q3 Results
[/list]

And/Or

[list]
TS to be lifted
[/list]

If they do this at the same time even the better so hold fire for now!

Iwerebor:
Surely there is something to be said about skyebank

not anymore the stock is on TS