₦airaland Forum

Never ever borrow money to do business in Nigeria. It is not worth it. The economy and the environment won't allow your business to grow.

Better find an investor or grant else continue drinking garri.

Kachidubem:
So I would have bought dollar and leave it for 7 years untouched...like I don't have bills or expenses to make


Can you leave money untouched for that long...let's keep tracking your 8 mill sha and see where it lands

Well, that's the difference between you and I, the 8 milli is not my last card. Its just about 50% of what I have. If I wanted to risk it all, I would have put like 20 milli. And yes, I can leave it for as long as possible. Its been lying fallow for God-knows-when. The money can keep going up and down and I will continue to pay all my bills, eat well, sleep well and even have extra more to cheat on my wife with single girls.

Kachidubem:
I've explained this thing to them before...

Ps4 wey we dey buy 75k that year 2016/17... shebi now dem dey sell for almost 200k.

Even if I save for dollar,shebi inflation for still wipe the gain... I just tire for this nighas

I'm just unhappy seeing unpatriotic Nigerians wishing n praying dia currency weakens

You don't get it. The idea is to stay above everyone else. If I leave the money in my bank account, it will keep losing its value due to inflation. If I buy dollar, it will rise to meet the inflation.

If you had purchased dollar with that 75k, it would be worth 200k, so you won't feel like you are paying extra. You are not losing and you're not gaining. You are staying afloat.

Kachidubem:
Coming back fire


That 8 million intact is gone....your best bet is going home with 5 million

You will learn the hard way ...you go dey buy dollars for 1280 ...who does that ..lol

So you actually believe dollar will 2000 by December...lol

Dey play

I go quote you when he don surpass 1280.

Kachidubem:
See your mouth "Naira will fall yakata"

Very unpatriotic fool,I'm an obidient , but I can never wish this country bad, I can never wish the currency to fall just for my selfish reasons

No worry , Dangote is coming on board soon... body go rest !!!

Bro, I'm not a fan of Obi. I am a full blooded BAT (Agbadorian) and sincerely want the best for this nation. It will be my greatest joy if Naira performs well. But I'm just facing the reality. The govt is trying to fix everything, Dangote is trying to come on board. But it doesn't look like it will happen in the next month or two. Before then, the Naira will plunge. It's not about me wishing bad on the nation. It's the obvious truth. People keep changing their Naira to dollar to import different rubbish from abroad. As long as this continue to go on and on, Naira will fall.

Kachidubem:
Baba dat image shows ...you've lost 1 million naira already ... dollar is 1050

1050 x $6591 = 7 million

Keep playing...we will help you calculate it till it gets to 4 million naira.

We'll go again tomorrow.

Yes na. I know I have lost money. I was even losing more when it went down to 950. But it's coming back.

Ikaeniyan0:
Its presently 1000

When the CBN clear the backlog and the refineries start working, the naira will strengthen. We will be saving at least $10 billion every year when our refineries start working.

And it won't hit 1150 tomorrow.

Bro, where are you seeing your 1000? Do you use Binance? Prices are updated there every second . If you have Crypto with you now I will buy it at 1020 Naira. Baba it's presently 1072.

Yes. I agree we will make a lot when refineries start working but before then, Naira will fall yakata. As for backlog, that one doesn't hold any water. If they clear backlog, it will only reduce the price for three to five days and it starts rising again.

And do you even realize the govt is currently playing pranks with the refineries?

They can't even give Dangote crude oil for refineries and the guy man is considering buying crude from abroad.

Ikaeniyan0:
How much usdt did you buy?

usdt is presently less than 1k. I don't see usdt rising up to 1300 again this year unless the CBN stop paying the forex backlog and don't also get all the billions of dollars they are expecting.

H told you it will hit 1070 before close of business today. The image below is the current trading price for USDT on Binance. And forget that backlog sh1t. It's a temporary fix. It doesn't hold any water as long as we don't earn enough from export. You can't keep selling your Naira to buy dollar for import and expect it to be stable

It's hitting 1150 by the close of business tomorrow.

I knew it will happen. I changed 8m Naira to USDT when it was 1,280 and it went back to 950. People suggested I sell but I refused.

I created a post here about this fall: https://www.nairaland.com/7898545/dont-believe-jp-morgans-prediction

Let's wait and see.

PS: That's my funds in the image below converted to USDT

Na Amadioha suppose kii this one

GeneralDae:
You can't be so sure this time except CBN is yet to get the billions of dollars they are expecting. If CBN gets huge inflow it can't go up this year again.

Bro, many Nigerians don't get the exchange rate on weekends. I get it per second. It's currently going back up as I speak. It's 995 this night. Let's see what happens on Monday.

And as for the money CBN is expecting, it's not a sustainable way to keep the currency stable. It's just a makeshift. And we don't even know when the money is coming. They said in weeks, but you know Naija. Weeks might turn to months

Athena6:
Thanks for the advice, I guess I will just cut my loses.
It is very painful losing 400k in just a few days 😢

I'm one of those people who advised that you buy dollar. I took out 8m out of my savings and bought USDT (Crypto) and now I'm currently losing about 1.4m. So madam, don't sell yet. It's going back up next week. It will first rebound back to where it's coming from and then even go a little higher before crashing back again. Just hold on a little. I promise to give you back your money if you lose. Trust me.

By the way, be careful of broke Nairaland guys who might want to take advantage of you by sending you DMs. They will look for ways to chop the remaining 2.4m

Na your phone camera dey draw line around the sun.

Nothing special

grandstar:
Thanks for your writeup but you provide an over simplistic view of the problem and also the solution.

Your belief that salvation will only come once the country start refining its crude oil locally rather than import it would resolve the issue isn't true.

The scarcity of forex began when Buhari assumed office. He pegged the Naira at around N199 to a dollar. He famously said I do not believe in devaluation. He had no right to fix the exchange rate. Secondly, he fixed it at a rate that did not reflect its market value. The rate he always chose at any time was an overvalued rate. Because the Naira was overvalued, demand for the dollar was greater than the supply. It meant more dollars was going out than coming in. In time, this ran down the foreign reserves.

In May 2015, the foreign reserves were $28.5bn. It is estimated that it is presently under $4bn. Emefiele had been lying to the country that it was around $30bn.

So simply refining oil locally would not resolve the dollar probably. That was not what caused the scarcity in the first place. The Naira needs to be traded at a rate that reflects the market value so that history would not repeat itself.

Dangote's is not being honest in his whining that the NNPC won't sell him crude. With NNPC owning a 20% stake in his refinery, that would be stupid. His refinery is not complete and the only product his refinery can supply in its present state will be the type of diesel the illegal refineries produce. It won't be good for use. I doubt Dangote has the funds to complete the refinery.

Two things can reduce pressure on the foreign reserves and the Naira. One is to ensure the Naira value reflects market realities. Better yet, make it a bit undervalued. That was the secret Charles Soludo used to build the foreign reserves to $60bn. This would reduce demand for dollars, and a weaker Naira increases inflows

Also, the fuel subsidy must not only be removed, but the price, deregulated just like as been done with kerosene and diesel. This may be the biggest pressure on the Naira.

There are other ways to draw forex into the country. Presently, the CBN runs a loose monetary policy. Its interest rate of 18.75% is below the inflation rate of 25% or so. That means interests are at a -6.25%. It has to hit around the inflation rate of 25%. At such a rate, monetary policy starts being tight and money would flow into bonds, reducing liquidity in the system and thereby reducing demand for forex. It would also encourage the inflow of FX through portfolio investment. This is global best practice. It is not an option. The present loose monetary policy is the biggest reason for the high inflation plaguing the country and not even the scarcity of FX.

The last paragraph is very important. Many economist have demanded for it but it seems the CBN is either dilly dallying or Tinubu does not want it. He wants low interest rates but the low interest rates he wants is fuelling inflation, Naira depreciation and may discourage the inflow of dollars into the system.

You can't have your cake and eat it. Just ask the Turkiye's president, Recep Erdorgan

Thanks for schooling me bro. I appreciate. Now I understand a lot.

samtoles:
Too much book dey worry you.

Why dem no kuku make you minister for finance abi make you sha be one important part of the govt.

No overhype me bro. I no get sense reach that level. Its what everyone can see.

dawnomike:
Well said... But this is talky the time to sell off your dollars and re-buy when the temporary crash happens.

By the way, it is happening already

its already happening, so why sell off when it will find its way back soon. That will be panic selling. Panic selling is bad.

So I saw a thread earlier about JP Morgan predicting the Naira to come down to 850 by December. Here is the link to that thread: https://www.nairaland.com/7898416/jp-morgan-projects-n850-december

Now this is why I don't believe anything from JP Morgan. In June, they predicted that the Naira will come down to 600 against the dollar and look at where it is today. Here is the link to that news: https://www.thecable.ng/naira-to-appreciate-settle-at-n600-1-in-coming-months-says-jp-morgan

If you trade Forex, you know what Overbought and Oversold is. That's what is currently happening. When the price gets to overbought, it will crash down, but doesnt mean it will continue to go down. It might just rise up again, and this time, the rate at which it will increase will be surprising.

If the govt injects the 10 billion USD they are expecting from God-Knows-Where, it might help stabilize the Naira a little, but then, it won't be permanent. Here is the link to that News: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/nigeria-sees-10-billion-inflows-easing-forex-liquidity-crunch

The only permanent solution to this is to earn more money through export and/or reduce importation drastically.

Since we spend huge amounts of money importing refined oil, getting our refineries to work (or Dangote Refinery) will help stabilize the Naira since we can produce our oil locally and consume what we produce and perhaps have more left to export to other countries who need refined oil.

But how is that even possible when Dangote is complaining that he cannot get crude oil in Nigeria because Nigeria govt is currently using our crude to pay debts. Now he has to import crude. Here is the link to that one: https://punchng.com/dangote-refinery-imports-crude-as-nnpcl-swaps-oil-for-loans/. Now Dangote said if he continues to import crude to refine, then he wont sell to Nigerians in Naira. Now Nigerians have to go hustle to exchange their Naira to dollar again to buy from Dangote bringing us back to square one. Naira will continue to fall.

They said they are fixing some refineries but we are not seeing any greenlight. All seems to be lies.

If they can fix like 3 refineries and get them to work, provide enough crude for Dangote to refine, we will be just fine. But this looks like its never going to happen.

See, my tired is tired.

Ready to be cursed

While our lawmakers are using the money belonging to these Yahoo boys and other citizens to buy exotic cars

anigbajumo:
I like yer analysis coz it shows u really understand the game but Dangote MD said they will be selling in Naira coz it’s Free Trade Zone and they won’t sell to marketers in Naira.

If they won't sell to marketers in Naira, then the govt should frustrate them.

Getting refineries to work alone is the solution to 90% of our problems in Nigeria.

The amount of money we will spend on import will be greatly reduced. We spend fortune importing refined oil and this is what is killing the Naira. We keep changing our Naira to the dollar to buy refined oil.

If we have as much refineries working as possible, we will have enough to serve the over 200 million population and also export refined oil to other countries. There are so many countries who buy refined oil, and we will make plenty money doing so.

Saudi Arabia, UAE and all these middle eastern countries export both refined and crude oil.

Fixing our refineries will mean more income for the country which we can spend on amenities such as welfare, power, education, health, startups, tech etc. We will have our GDP and GDP Per capital up there.

The politicians are fools. They can even steal as much money as they want if our income is so high and the common citizens won't even feel it. Go to Saudi, UAE, Russia. There are politicians and monarchs and princes embezzling their money in billions of dollars and its not even telling on the econony. That's because what comes into the country through the sales of oil is so high. Just build a channel from which huge income can flow, then steal as much as you want without hurting others.

But do I believe anything about fixing this refinery? I don't think so.

Let Dangote refinery even start working first. It will help to stabilize the Naira. At least we won't spend so much importing refined oil if Dangote can serve Naija consumers.

I dey vex seff.

SavageResponse:
There's nothing attractive about her!

Absolutely nothing.

Whoever find her attractive is gay

Infolenka:
Nothing attractive about her?

Abeg post your girlfriend's picture. I wan check something.

Wait, you find this thing attractive?

Lolz

BadMaster:
Men, I present to you, the simps in our mist. These are the reason why we will always have stupid men amongst us. I am very sure if I ask you guys now, you would probably tell me your girlfriends or wives are loyal to you, not knowing that they are being banged behind your back.

A woman is trying to tell you that most, if not all, women that have achieved a certain age and unmarried, have committed abortion at least once. Mind you, she's not referring to women of all ages, you should know this already, as it's common sense.

You are 100% a mad man. This isn't about being a SIMP, its about being realistic.

I can see that your mother, your sisters and nieces are all ashawo and they jump from one prik to the other. Your mum, sisters, aunties and every woman in your family have committed abortions more than 15 times each, and this is why it is so easy for you to agree with that nonsense. Not every woman is like your ashawo mother, sisters, aunties and nieces.

Y're yabbing nonsense.

This one dey cap nonsense

Okay

micxwell:
You should have waited for Jagaban to make his policies.

A friend didn't wait and bought it when it was 920.

Smartguyboy:
Is it not too late for you to buy dollars now?

No, it's not. Nigeria is has not put any plan in place to stop the hike. It's definitely still going up. 300 Naira more with my 8m and I will be having about extra 2m

Athena6:
I was actually given this advice months ago when the dollar was 950 or so but my thought process was that the dollar might come down and I will lose money 😔 even now, I made the calculations

If I use 4M to buy dollar, that will be 3200 dollars and if dollar increases, say 2000 by this year ending or so, I would make an extra 2.4M but if dollar decreases I will lose a lot of money.

Nigeria is a very weird place, the dollar market is so unpredictable.
I am still thinking of it sha

I went to the bank this morning, took out 8m from my savings and used everything to buy USDT. Be like me

Okay

wrongnumber:
Nonsense.

How can you rescue a country from a drug lord, a criminal of international repute.. A forger and a man who thinks running a country is the same as running a drug cartel.

Nigeria is heading for total collapse.

Tinubu can not rule this country and the longer he rules, the worse it becomes for Nigerians.

Democracy is government by the people and for the people but Tinubu was not elected by the people so he can never work in people's favour.

The wish and prayers of you vain labourers (Obiddiotss) is for Nigeria to fail and collapse so that you will look into the eyes of the BATmen and say "Ntooor, shebi I told you" forgetting that we are all in it together.

Very mumu and nonsense statement.