₦airaland Forum

grandstar:
Thanks for your writeup but you provide an over simplistic view of the problem and also the solution.

Your belief that salvation will only come once the country start refining its crude oil locally rather than import it would resolve the issue isn't true.

The scarcity of forex began when Buhari assumed office. He pegged the Naira at around N199 to a dollar. He famously said I do not believe in devaluation. He had no right to fix the exchange rate. Secondly, he fixed it at a rate that did not reflect its market value. The rate he always chose at any time was an overvalued rate. Because the Naira was overvalued, demand for the dollar was greater than the supply. It meant more dollars was going out than coming in. In time, this ran down the foreign reserves.

In May 2015, the foreign reserves were $28.5bn. It is estimated that it is presently under $4bn. Emefiele had been lying to the country that it was around $30bn.

So simply refining oil locally would not resolve the dollar probably. That was not what caused the scarcity in the first place. The Naira needs to be traded at a rate that reflects the market value so that history would not repeat itself.

Dangote's is not being honest in his whining that the NNPC won't sell him crude. With NNPC owning a 20% stake in his refinery, that would be stupid. His refinery is not complete and the only product his refinery can supply in its present state will be the type of diesel the illegal refineries produce. It won't be good for use. I doubt Dangote has the funds to complete the refinery.

Two things can reduce pressure on the foreign reserves and the Naira. One is to ensure the Naira value reflects market realities. Better yet, make it a bit undervalued. That was the secret Charles Soludo used to build the foreign reserves to $60bn. This would reduce demand for dollars, and a weaker Naira increases inflows

Also, the fuel subsidy must not only be removed, but the price, deregulated just like as been done with kerosene and diesel. This may be the biggest pressure on the Naira.

There are other ways to draw forex into the country. Presently, the CBN runs a loose monetary policy. Its interest rate of 18.75% is below the inflation rate of 25% or so. That means interests are at a -6.25%. It has to hit around the inflation rate of 25%. At such a rate, monetary policy starts being tight and money would flow into bonds, reducing liquidity in the system and thereby reducing demand for forex. It would also encourage the inflow of FX through portfolio investment. This is global best practice. It is not an option. The present loose monetary policy is the biggest reason for the high inflation plaguing the country and not even the scarcity of FX.

The last paragraph is very important. Many economist have demanded for it but it seems the CBN is either dilly dallying or Tinubu does not want it. He wants low interest rates but the low interest rates he wants is fuelling inflation, Naira depreciation and may discourage the inflow of dollars into the system.

You can't have your cake and eat it. Just ask the Turkiye's president, Recep Erdorgan

Thanks for schooling me bro. I appreciate. Now I understand a lot.

samtoles:
Too much book dey worry you.

Why dem no kuku make you minister for finance abi make you sha be one important part of the govt.

No overhype me bro. I no get sense reach that level. Its what everyone can see.

dawnomike:
Well said... But this is talky the time to sell off your dollars and re-buy when the temporary crash happens.

By the way, it is happening already

its already happening, so why sell off when it will find its way back soon. That will be panic selling. Panic selling is bad.

So I saw a thread earlier about JP Morgan predicting the Naira to come down to 850 by December. Here is the link to that thread: https://www.nairaland.com/7898416/jp-morgan-projects-n850-december

Now this is why I don't believe anything from JP Morgan. In June, they predicted that the Naira will come down to 600 against the dollar and look at where it is today. Here is the link to that news: https://www.thecable.ng/naira-to-appreciate-settle-at-n600-1-in-coming-months-says-jp-morgan

If you trade Forex, you know what Overbought and Oversold is. That's what is currently happening. When the price gets to overbought, it will crash down, but doesnt mean it will continue to go down. It might just rise up again, and this time, the rate at which it will increase will be surprising.

If the govt injects the 10 billion USD they are expecting from God-Knows-Where, it might help stabilize the Naira a little, but then, it won't be permanent. Here is the link to that News: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/nigeria-sees-10-billion-inflows-easing-forex-liquidity-crunch

The only permanent solution to this is to earn more money through export and/or reduce importation drastically.

Since we spend huge amounts of money importing refined oil, getting our refineries to work (or Dangote Refinery) will help stabilize the Naira since we can produce our oil locally and consume what we produce and perhaps have more left to export to other countries who need refined oil.

But how is that even possible when Dangote is complaining that he cannot get crude oil in Nigeria because Nigeria govt is currently using our crude to pay debts. Now he has to import crude. Here is the link to that one: https://punchng.com/dangote-refinery-imports-crude-as-nnpcl-swaps-oil-for-loans/. Now Dangote said if he continues to import crude to refine, then he wont sell to Nigerians in Naira. Now Nigerians have to go hustle to exchange their Naira to dollar again to buy from Dangote bringing us back to square one. Naira will continue to fall.

They said they are fixing some refineries but we are not seeing any greenlight. All seems to be lies.

If they can fix like 3 refineries and get them to work, provide enough crude for Dangote to refine, we will be just fine. But this looks like its never going to happen.

See, my tired is tired.

Ready to be cursed

While our lawmakers are using the money belonging to these Yahoo boys and other citizens to buy exotic cars

anigbajumo:
I like yer analysis coz it shows u really understand the game but Dangote MD said they will be selling in Naira coz it’s Free Trade Zone and they won’t sell to marketers in Naira.

If they won't sell to marketers in Naira, then the govt should frustrate them.

Getting refineries to work alone is the solution to 90% of our problems in Nigeria.

The amount of money we will spend on import will be greatly reduced. We spend fortune importing refined oil and this is what is killing the Naira. We keep changing our Naira to the dollar to buy refined oil.

If we have as much refineries working as possible, we will have enough to serve the over 200 million population and also export refined oil to other countries. There are so many countries who buy refined oil, and we will make plenty money doing so.

Saudi Arabia, UAE and all these middle eastern countries export both refined and crude oil.

Fixing our refineries will mean more income for the country which we can spend on amenities such as welfare, power, education, health, startups, tech etc. We will have our GDP and GDP Per capital up there.

The politicians are fools. They can even steal as much money as they want if our income is so high and the common citizens won't even feel it. Go to Saudi, UAE, Russia. There are politicians and monarchs and princes embezzling their money in billions of dollars and its not even telling on the econony. That's because what comes into the country through the sales of oil is so high. Just build a channel from which huge income can flow, then steal as much as you want without hurting others.

But do I believe anything about fixing this refinery? I don't think so.

Let Dangote refinery even start working first. It will help to stabilize the Naira. At least we won't spend so much importing refined oil if Dangote can serve Naija consumers.

I dey vex seff.

SavageResponse:
There's nothing attractive about her!

Absolutely nothing.

Whoever find her attractive is gay

Infolenka:
Nothing attractive about her?

Abeg post your girlfriend's picture. I wan check something.

Wait, you find this thing attractive?

Lolz

BadMaster:
Men, I present to you, the simps in our mist. These are the reason why we will always have stupid men amongst us. I am very sure if I ask you guys now, you would probably tell me your girlfriends or wives are loyal to you, not knowing that they are being banged behind your back.

A woman is trying to tell you that most, if not all, women that have achieved a certain age and unmarried, have committed abortion at least once. Mind you, she's not referring to women of all ages, you should know this already, as it's common sense.

You are 100% a mad man. This isn't about being a SIMP, its about being realistic.

I can see that your mother, your sisters and nieces are all ashawo and they jump from one prik to the other. Your mum, sisters, aunties and every woman in your family have committed abortions more than 15 times each, and this is why it is so easy for you to agree with that nonsense. Not every woman is like your ashawo mother, sisters, aunties and nieces.

Y're yabbing nonsense.

This one dey cap nonsense

Okay

micxwell:
You should have waited for Jagaban to make his policies.

A friend didn't wait and bought it when it was 920.

Smartguyboy:
Is it not too late for you to buy dollars now?

No, it's not. Nigeria is has not put any plan in place to stop the hike. It's definitely still going up. 300 Naira more with my 8m and I will be having about extra 2m

Athena6:
I was actually given this advice months ago when the dollar was 950 or so but my thought process was that the dollar might come down and I will lose money 😔 even now, I made the calculations

If I use 4M to buy dollar, that will be 3200 dollars and if dollar increases, say 2000 by this year ending or so, I would make an extra 2.4M but if dollar decreases I will lose a lot of money.

Nigeria is a very weird place, the dollar market is so unpredictable.
I am still thinking of it sha

I went to the bank this morning, took out 8m from my savings and used everything to buy USDT. Be like me

Okay

wrongnumber:
Nonsense.

How can you rescue a country from a drug lord, a criminal of international repute.. A forger and a man who thinks running a country is the same as running a drug cartel.

Nigeria is heading for total collapse.

Tinubu can not rule this country and the longer he rules, the worse it becomes for Nigerians.

Democracy is government by the people and for the people but Tinubu was not elected by the people so he can never work in people's favour.

The wish and prayers of you vain labourers (Obiddiotss) is for Nigeria to fail and collapse so that you will look into the eyes of the BATmen and say "Ntooor, shebi I told you" forgetting that we are all in it together.

Very mumu and nonsense statement.

The vain labourers must accept total defeat and shut their mouth up forever so that the govt can focus on improving the lives of ordinary Nigerians.

Nothing wey poverty no fit cause

BlackhatMentor:
Side chicks were designed and created for me like yourself.

Trust me, if your wife sense there's someone else.

Her legs will start spreading wider than a woman in labor room

You get the drill bro.

This is one reason my wife will never ever deny me. And me too will never demand it. She knows I be baddo; any small thing I don go meet my girls for outside. If she like let her not allow me for 12 straight months I don't care and wont even seem like I care. Babes wey dey outside seff we never finish them.

May I not labour in vain

In amadioha name I pray, Amen

Seun:
We were exporting oil though.

Seun, abbeg, let me ask you something:

Do you think the Naira will get better if Dangote start selling refined oil to us? Like if his refined oil is enough to serve the whole of Nigeria

We are finished in this country!!!

N11.35 trillion spent on reviving the refineries since 2010 yet nothing to show for it.

Who released the money? To who? What did they do with it?

If the refineries have been working since lets say 2015, Naira should be around 200/$.

We keep spending billions of dollars each year importing refined oil thereby killing our currency and our economy and we are looking?

And even this probing is all talks and nothing will happen. Mad people

Africa is cursed!!!

NotoriousBiggyS:
I stays in an apartment that has five 5flat , each flat occupied with 5 different tenants including myself. Before we uses direct electricity which we collectively pays monthly but recently got change to prepaid meter. With each fat with it own prepaid meter. The landlord refuse to bring another prepaid separately for the compound water Pumping Machine.
However the tenants come to dialogue and agreed to tap electricity from my own prepaid meter to the pumping machine in agreement that each tenant will be paying me 1000naira monthly. So I want to know if 5k can be enough to run pumping machine for a month?

I think I'm in the best position to advise you on this.

In my compound, we have a separate prepaid meter for our pumping machine. The machine is 1.5HP which is like the biggest for domestic use. I am in charge of recharging the meter. We are 5 flats and each flats contribute 2k at every recharge, that's 10k. We use 10k worth of unit for about 3 months, sometimes 4 months, pumping twice daily. So 5k worth of units is more than enough for you. You should have some extra left.

However, this depends on the Power Distribution company in your area. In my area, they give 21 units per 1,000 Naira. If yours is lower, then 5k might not be enough in a month.

sukkot:
Let me tell you the Ikoyi format because when I went there there had been people coming for many days and hadn't collected it because the queue is just too much.

So when I GOT there I went to the immigration officer woman who helped me with my application, she gave me a very good advice, she First asked me, are you travelling ? I said no, she said, JUST FORGET ABOUT COLLECTING IT THIS WEEK THAT THE QUEUE IS TOO MUCH AND THAT I SHOULD COME IN LIKE 2 WEEKS TIME WHEN THE RUSH TO COLLECT HAS SUBSIDED. I mulled the idea over and thought ? Hmmm ok let me go and see what she is talking about.

So I went to the collections. The crowd there was like that of the World Cup finals in a stadium. The crowd stagger me. So I decided this woman gave me good advice, let me go home.

I will come back in November when the rush has subsided. However I wanted to be sure that my passport has been issued before I left the premises so they directed me to this office where they asked for my enrolment number.

I gave it to them. After 2 minutes the lady told me your passport has been issued and go to the collections to collect it. You see ehn, after she told me that my passport had been issued the kind of STRONGHEAD that overtook me ?

I then decided I may as well try to see if I can collect it. I entered into that sea of people at the collections, it was hell, people just pushing you about, stepping on your shoe, everybody sweating and frustrated. I contested with the crowd for like one hour, then I started hearing stories of people lamenting that they have been coming everyday for days and have been unable to get it because of the huge crowd.

My liver just fail me. I then decided it's in my best interest to come back in November after all I am not collecting the passport because I wanted to travel. But my STRONGHEAD kicked in again and I dipped hand inside my pocket.

There was 10,000 sitting there just languishing. So I decided its time to do business. So I started greeting every officer I saw and told them I want to do business.

They thought maybe I was undercover journalist and just laughed and walked by but this particular guy had a jovial face. I kept over-greeting him anytime he walked by and finally he pulled up and said what do you want ?

I said chairman I want to collect my passport but that crowd is staggering and scary. I said I am willing to pay 10k. The man looked at me intensely and said listen I don't do that .

Then he walked away. 10 minutes later he walked back and said what's your name and enrolment number , he took it and disappeared. He reappeared 10 minutes later with my passport in his hands and directed me to where I was to do the final process. That's how I got the passport in the midst of a football crowd who had been coming for days.

I was willing to part with the last 10,000 in my pocket but I ended up not parting with a kobo and getting the passport.

MAY THE LORD BLESS THAT OFFICER ABUNDANTLY AMEN. GOOD MAN.

Before I pull your kind of stunt, I must ask these very important questions.

Are you a lady?

If yes, are you pretty? Do you have yansh and/or big breassts?

Is the officer that attended to you a male or female

If male, did he later make any pass at you or collect your number?

Your answers will help determine my next move.

What this guy is spitting might cause unprecedented chaos, anger and what-nots among youths.

He has to explain to the police how he came to such conclusion.

Although many evidences such as the singer's video saying we should hold Naira and Larry responsible if he dies, and the police report he made against them are enough to get them in trouble, but still not enough to convict them.

Portable should thread softly. His jam talk might land him in trouble

Ayanwukoma:
I just packed into this man house recently and he seem like a well to do man, always saying money is not his problem.

He takes his tennant as his family and wants us to live as one.

To be honest, the house was expensive but since I am someone with high taste and nice Serene environment I had to risk it all.

This drained my finances for months now and I am thinking about summoning the courage and approaching him tomorrow for a loan but this is my first time.

Has anyone here ever borrowed money from his landlord before and the experience?

WTF did I just read?

You're one hell of a mvtherfvcking fool.

*Spits*

Oka

Treasure17:
Impeaching Tinubu will be great news.

Of course, that will be newsworthy. In fact a global breaking news.

But sadly for you, it will never happen. Only in your dreams