₦airaland Forum

CURRENTPRCE IS VERY GOOD/MY OPENION ON FBNH

We are missing the service of the correct man Current Price. I just saw his post where he commented that Oil will go above USD60 yesterday and today today Oil is above USD65.


The Guy is good. We should avoid annoying people like this in the forum.

FBNH is good for now. The rate it is moving towards the closest resistance line is fantastic and may cross over to NGN11.00. With its recent addition to MSCI, getting to NGN11.00 within the next few days should be no big deal. The fund as at yesterday had over NGN1.2 Billion available for NSE stock of which I am sure FBNH will attract some.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MARKET COMMENT/WHAT MSCI BOUGHT BETWEEN 7 AND 8 DECEMBER- FIDELITY AS USUAL, ACCESS, TRANSCORP, OANDO ETC



MSCI added Dangsugar, Fidelity, OANDO, Transcorp etc between 7 and 8th December 2017.

The NSE All share index is close to a supply zone, which may be fairly difficult to climb. However, if the All share index closes above 41,769.70 then we know the bulls are in the market fully.

For stocks like Transcorp, MSCI stepping into the scene may be a game changer. The equity has been ranging for sometime. Probably now more investors may note the potential that will be offered by the energy sector.

A stock like FBN is in good buying Zone. The Banking sector is second to the Consumer Goods in terms of market strength for the week that has just ended. Another banking stock looking very tempting is Jaiz Bank. The problem is that it is a weak stock. But the current price level offers a fairly low risk entry.

If you want the full list of the excel sheets for the MSCI additions worling sheet/website link you can send me a mail.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

GAINERS/LOSERS FOR THE WEEK

This week was good. The increase in the percentage gains prices far outweigh the losses. Market internals for Friday, despite the the index going down was far better than Thursday? Scrutinizing the prices on Thursday showed many equities opening on the high, however they ended up closing lower than the opening prices (this is a negative handwriting on the wall).

Some equities are still at good buying points. Good time to look for pullbacks.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

WHERE MSCI INVESTED ADDITIONAL FUNDS ON 6 DECEMBER 2017/SOME EQUITIES APPROACHING RESISTANCE LEVELS

For 6 December 2017. MSCI uploaded on Dangote Sugar, Diamond and Fidelity. No wonder those equities were good gainers for that day.

The Equities that are close to major resistance level includes: Dangote Sugar, Fidson. For Transcorp, this level of NGN1.53 seems to be a liquidation point for some major holders, previous posts on this forum have indicated this. Let us see if Transcorp will go past this level in this bull season.

The problem of Transcorp seems to be the fact that so many people have loaded up immediately after the release of the 3rd Quarter report, but price failed to advance as expected (see daily chart of 15 October, level has been strong since July 2017) and as at now are in a loss/just want to breakeven and get out.

Below were the additions by MSCI. I will continue to monitor this, but may now be weekly or monthly. If want the excel sheet, you can e-mail me.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

PEEPING AT WHAT THE MSCI FUND IS DOING FOR THE BENEFIT OF YOU AND ME/FORUM IN GENERAL

Please let us not fight in this forum, what we are having here is serious business of how to make people preserve their money/make some more.

I am a follower of people like (that is why I don’t get involved when 2 elephants are fighting, but just watch to see which of their stock I can buy, I won’t tell you the one I bought between Eternal and Transcorp)
Current price- For correct Prices/value of Stocks
Fxuser, Triri/other TA guys- For technical Guidance
Locodemy: For pointing out stock that can move like locomotive Engine, heavy movements for big money/distribution of loot
Yok – For the short stories/Funny (but serious) fundamentals like the one below.

Just like people are following some people (sorry if I have not mentioned your name (Emmanuel, Vevee , Toluway, Itendy ,Peter- to sell) just like the above have followers, the funds attracts a lot of followers apart from the fact that they also have smaller funds/investors following them. https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/

From the information below, do not be surprised if, FBNH is finaly delivered from the old Ogbanje spirit of falling around school fees time soon. I see the funds moving more into FBNH, Fidelity, NBL, Diamond soon as they are making money in these equities. So don’t be surprised if the prices of the above fail to come down. You can see what they are getting out of, so use the info as guide.

I end here, I don’t like stories.

If you need the excel where I got this infor from, send me an e-mail via this forum ASAP.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

FORECAST HIGH AND LOW/COMMENT FOR SOME SELECTED STOCK- WEEK ENDING 8 DECEMBER 2017


This is my forecast of the likely high and low prices for the week.

Actual close above or below the forecast gives the direction of the stock, whether in strong uptrend or down trend.

If you are interested in the spreadsheet for these weekly high and low forecast spread sheet, you can send me an e-mail via my profile in the forum. Send me the list of stock you are interested in an I will e-mail the projection to you for the indicated equities.

Caution: This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

PERIOD OF TAKING DECISION AT THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE MARKET

Many of the equities closed at points where one is not sure if the uptrend will continue. Nevertheless as a trader/regular investor one may need to decide what to buy or sell.

The chart below showed the position of CI Leasing, the price as it is standing at the upper end of a median line, saying price is at a top and may not be safe to buy as at now. However, looking at the fact that the price has fallen while other equities in the sector has been assisted by the recent listing of Global Spectrum, at what price can I start buying again. Given what I see, the safest thing to do is to wait till the price gets to NGN1.11. At this price the market should have bottom out.

The median line has been very good in preventing one from buying at the top.

On the All share index, the uptrend is likely to continue, as the resumption of positive trend will attract more participants into the market. I expect the year end rally to start from about 17 to 22 of December 2017. Therefore, this is the right time for one to position himself for this temporary rally.

Also it may be time to start looking at the stocks recently admitted to the MSCI index ( PZ and FBNH). PZ will be a good buy at NGN20.00 and FBN may likerly have good movement once it closes above 7.50



Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

DOOR TO UPSIDE MOVEMENT IS OPENING/SELECTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING 1 DEC 2017


Looking at the prices of many stocks looking like already beaten down. Good opportunity, to get some good stocks at bargain prices.

Below is the weekly forecast of high/low prices. After looking at my analysis personally I will be willing to buy the following stock at these prices:

Dangote Flour- The following day that the stock will close above 9.25
May and Baker: Good buying zone
Nigerian Breweries: Buy following day price goes above 139.50

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX CLOSE ON FRIDAY WAS FANTASTIC

I was watching the market numbers on Friday afternoon, the quality of gainers are door openers for positive market turns.

Therefore, I expect the index for this new week to close positive. This week will be a good one for us to position ourselves for the Christmas bonus/December rally. A lot of stocks like International breweries are in the market. I feel like jumping the gun and making some recommendations right away. However, I have to retrain myself and go through my usual data/charts. I hope I will finish quickly enough (got some other pressing issues to attend to). I will try my best, if no time I will just pick the high probability stocks that are in good supply/demand or median line positions.

Hope to come back with something ASAP.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

REVIEW OF HIGH/LOW PROFIT FORECAST FOR WEEK ENDING 25 NOVEMBER 2017.

Many equities are trading at their support levels. Thus, from this weekend, some price appreciation is possible. A case in point is May and Baker, Transcorp, Champion Breweries etc. Let us see what the final closing figures for Friday will look like. For the all share index, for there to be substantial appreciation, index has to close above 36,939.40.

The above is attached. The purpose is for one to be able to view a stock performance at a glance and know when a stock is loosing momentum of the current trend.

If you are interested in the excel sheet you can e-mail me.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

REVIEW OF HIGH/LOW PROFIT FORECAST FOR WEEK ENDED 17 NOVEMBER 2017.

The above is attached. The purpose is for one to be able to view a stock performance at a glance and know when a stock is loosing momentum of the current trend.

If you are interested in the excel sheet you can e-mail me.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

QUIET TIME IN THE MARKET- FUNDAMENTAL INVESTORS SNEAK INTO THE MARKET- ONE FUTURE BLUE CHIP WORTH BUYING NOW

The market is scary for now no doubt. However, the shares of International Breweries is likely to be a good buy. Using the earning trading system, tomorrow will be a good price to buy the stock. The foreign Investor in the business are very big when it comes to Brewing business in the world.

If cannot buy immediately for any reason, price around NGN42 will be a fantastic entry point. For this you may wait till about Wednesday an then buy if the price is still below NGNG50.

See the chart below. The current price is about .618% retracement. See the chart below.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

TIME OUT – THE MARKET IS BECOMING CLOUDY- NEED FOR TIME OUT

For the past six trading days, the market has been in a trading range. Although the week closed on the positive side at 37,120.28 for the week. The chart is sort of hesitating from going higher at close to a resistance level, thus to avoid buying close to resistance point, this week will be a good period to wait and see what the market will do, as we are all waiting for the last major rally expected for the end of the year.

There are so many equities with good 3rd quarter report for which the market is yet to respond. Probably the next 2 weeks may start throwing up new sets of major price gainers. Those that have shown substantial gains recently seems to be getting tired, example is Dangote Flour

Based on last price forcast for some equities in week just ended the actual result is below plus the expectation for next week.

If you are interested in the excel for the weekly price forecast, you can mail me and I forward to you.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

COMMENT ON NSE ALL SHARE INDEX FOR 3 NOVEMBER 2017/OTHERS

Last week was a positive one. The big equities did well as reflected in the percentage change for the week on the Official weekly report, see the premium index performance. Looking at the NSE All share index projected high/low points for the week is shown below. I have realised that simple mathematics works in the market an we will use it to guide us on what to do. Wlii follow up next week on this.

Further to my last week posting. Dangote Flour was among the 10 top for last week. However, CI Leasing failed to appreciate despite the good result (won ti gba penalty lo si throwing??- using Small Doctor song). Therefore picking up from here, after review of the charts using support resistance and supply and demand, CI Leasing is in a very strong buy position, with minimal risk to the downside. The expected gain is meaningful, while the stop loss is equally very low, just because it is good to have stop loss (I will put this at about 20kobo). projected high and low for this week likely to be: High – 1.78 : Low- 1.68

The time horizon to yield profitability is equally very short, within one month.

Equally the high/low prices for NSEALL share, for this week and the next one month are projected as follows:

High Low
Price Projection- For Week Ending 11/11/17- 37,248.22 36,383.79
Price Projection- For Month of November- 37,429.51 35,543.07

If you are interested in the spreadsheet for these weekly high and low forecast spread sheet, you can send me an e-mail via my profile in the forum. Send me the list of stock you are interested in an I will e-mail the monthly projection to you for the indicated equities.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

I AM INTERESTED, READY TO GET THE MANUAL AND READY TO START

e-mail: kelanio2002@yahoo.com

I am interested kelanio2002@yahoo.com

Hi,

I am interested in this popcorn an biscuit business. Will like to add request for Caramel popcorn.

I am ready to start the popcorn business, I have the machine.

My phone number is 08023054935

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX LEVEL FOR 30 NOVEMBER 2017

Last week was not bad for the index. Although there was a slight decrease compared with the previous week, gains by mid-cap/small cap stocks sustained the index from the fall.

This week is expected to be another good week, with demand coming into the market. The news of the fact that Nigerian stock are still in the MSCI index should impact the market positively.

On the closing note, with stocks like CI Leasing, Dangote Flour it is penalty time for people holding investments here. I am sure it will straight goal for profits.

Now with this MSCI news, now time to look for a good stock that will attract the attention of the foreign Fund Managers. Probably the banks may be the first to benefit and the likes of NBL, Guinness etc.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

NSE AL SHARE INDEX SHOWED STRONG REBOUND- GOOD DOJI REVERSAL YESTERDAY

i an enjoying this market. The reality is that the market can be scary, there is no free lunch. Even a stock that will go up will 1st experience what seems like some downtrend, as a way of making the inexperience traders to release their stock.

Good season to play the earnings release game. For this I will be looking at transcorp for now. A move above the price of NGN1.53 (buy timing is the second day price goes above this figure). The stop loss will be NGN1.32.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

I want to learn how to make caramel popcorn. I need somebody that can train me.

Awaiting lead from anybody urgently. The trainer must have a physical location I can contact. You can call me on- 08023054935

Thanks.

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX LIKELY TO OBEY THE STRONG SUPPORT LEVEL THIS WEEK- 22 TO 27 OCTOBER 2017

Looking at the all share index chart. The current support level will likely hold for the week.

Let see how this play out for the week.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

THIS MARKET IS HIGHLY TECHNICAL

Yesterday, I saw the index closed on the nearest support level. Today it refused to go down.

What this is telling me is that, a player in the market nee to have some knowledge of Technical analysis to make money. Equally the sectoral leaders of recent have been very clear without any confusion.

See the chart below.

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX TRADING CLOSE TO AN IMPORTANT LEVEL

37032 is the closest supply point. A close above this level will make the uptrend to continue.

The good news is that this month started well, there is a strong support close to the current level. The worst that may happen is for the market to be in a trading range. Thus, there seems to be no need for panic.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

[quote author=fxuser post=61378125]Thanks. The levels were given in advance. Usually at the beginning of the month. What I have sent is just an extract for some selected stocks.

The service is actually based on subscription to get the full details.

Seems not too bad. At least I have what will likely be the market direction for about one month in advance and thus know how to plan myself. The NGN1,525 is the first target, there is a second target at NGN1.71 to 1.81,Pivot points etc.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

gentop1:
It cant still be compare because the USA has more stock to trade and their is no limit set to price of stock compare to limit se here,you can make a price appreciate of more than 150% in a day and vice-versa

You may contact MerryFX Nigeria. It is a subsidiary of Meritrade Nigeria. I believe they can allow you to trade some selected US Stocks- https://merifx.com.ng

GAME PLAN FOR SEPTEMBER EARNING SEASON

Since I started using supply and demand levels. Trading stocks has become more clearer and less stressful. I can effectively set my buying/exit levels in advance without any fear.

Below charts show what I expect the market to do for some equities CI Leasing, Transcorp, Dansugar etc. I will not be buying immediately the earnings are released, as I will like to catch some fast move.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

To the charges add brokerage : 0.25% to 1.35% depending on stockbroker

POSITIONING FOR 3RDD QUARTER- GOOD ENTRY POSITION FOR DANGOTE FLOUR

The Chart below is a good low risk entry point. Stop loss of 10% is okay. The entry is close to a good demand point. This entry is like one of the best textbook entries one can get. The market will likely be slow to move between now and next week. Nigeria FOMC meeting is Monday/Tuesday.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

The market dropped 2.85% in the 2 trading days for the week- but many equities close to supply zones uptrend expected to return.

The market is in a retracement mode as at now. The good news is that for the equities that are in uptrend, many are in the demand zone that should be able to slow down the 2 days down trend. Among the charts showing this are NSE all share index, Honywell flour, Oando etc.

This is another indication that the market is responding well to technical analysis, such that somebody with some knowledge will not be too confused.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

NEXT MAJOR SUPPLY LEVEL IS 41,004

The market has been doing well recently. The good thing is that on the major index, although there is a minor supply level around 391124.65 on which a minor retracement may happen. The above level has a major supply there. The effect of this is that we need to see how the index will behave when it gets to this level and then we align ourselves as necessary.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

STOCK MARKET REVIEW OF CCNN, OANDO AND TRANSCORP AS POSSIBLE CANDIDATES FOR FAST MOMENTUM PLAYS.

The above equities using physical observation are good for upward movement in the short/medium term (this is the best horizon) to operate in for maximum return as at now in terms of low priced equities.

Looking at the EMA, the current prices are good entry points. Secondly supply points gives room for upward movement (this also apply to the all share index as at Friday’s chart- 4th August 2017).

As a continuation of the supply/demand strategy and adding some twit of Wyckoff method, personally I have chosen to enter OANDO to replace my holding in Eterna Oil. My intention is to keep close watch on CCNN as it has started behaving as expected (I was able to survive the lock up period as I withdrew my sale instruction as the price was trading below my specified limit selling price then), the stock may move higher since the market is now reacting positively to the good earnings report.

Profit taking is expected from time to time withing this month. My personal intention is to stay close to the market and extract as much profit from the market between now and September ending. Early October, I want to be back in the market for mop up exercise which I am sure will deliver the father Christmas rally (there is high probability of these positive expectation materializing due to the application of the appropriate trading system). You will observe in my last posting that, I now don't worry about looking at the market everyday again, equally the stocks I will be buying are now reduced (my system will whittle out many) and will only enter at those points that momentum to the upsides will be high.

Sorry, I do not want to write too much story, the comments on CCNN, Transcorp and OANDO are in the charts below.

My next post will be explaining why trading is the best business one can do especially on part-time basis. My recent experience just clearly showed this as I was involved as a team in a Consultancy to set up one SME for a Client. Where can I put NGN100k and make NGN20k by month end, without the risk of losing my whole capital? Trading of course. I will give the example of buying Oando at NGN7.95 today, I want to get out when I make 20% profit, while my stop loss is places at NGN6.98.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

MY COMMENT ON OANDO, FBNH, DANGOTE FLOUR

I refer to my previous posting on OANDO. The stock went below my projected 1st support level by about NGN1.00 . And price is now back to the previous range before the SEC issue. What this price reversal to the trading range is telling us is that the insiders are confident about the fundamentals of the company, at least in the short/medium term. We should not be surprised if the recent low is the lowest the stock will make in the next few months. It is equally probable that the company will end up winning the bid to carry out the maintenance of one of the refineries. This is the information I can gather from the recent price action behavior of the the equity.

On FBN. From the technical as well as the fundamental (my own style, this time relying on the past history for the school season/wide public holding of the stock). There is a strong supply level at NGN7.28 to NGN6.93. The stock is likely to find it difficult moving substantially beyond this level If I hold this stock, I will look forward to selling about end of August (if the earnings, generates positive reaction which move the price) and them will think of buying afresh by end of September, good demand point is 5.93 to 5,71 . The chart indicating the immediate supply level is attached. I am sorry, I cannot give more information here as to how I arrive at this my opinion. Apologies to the die hard supporters of FBNH, but let us see how the market will move. This information is just for guidance purpose only


DANGOTE FLOUR. The economic fundamentals still favors the industry where this company belongs.. If I have bought, I will stay put, till the expected earning report is made public. Closest supply point is 5.20 to 4.78, all things being equal, I expect the price to jump above this level due to the pending earnings report. The closest demand level is equally 4.32 to 4.04, what this is telling me is that on no circumstances should I allow the price to fall to this level before I sell (need to sell far from this point) if the total market turns bearish, as this will be a good point to consider a re-entry.

I have discovered that the use of this supply demand system has simplified my buying and selling, such that I can comfortably ignore monitoring the stock prices everyday, just look at the prices twice a week and my investments are still safe as I can determine what to do some few days ahead. And this system seems to have compressed so many indicators to simply 2 levels. Let me give a gist here, I am into Afriprud, my supply level indicated supply levels as 3.10 to 3.10 and then 3.00. If for the coming week, I only decide to look at the daily price list on Wednesday, price show 3.10, I will be preparing to sell some quantities about 3.00 to may be 3.08, this make life simple and easy for me. Note that I am not saying Afriprud price will fall, but this is just my personal plan for handling my investment in Afriprud.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.