₦airaland Forum

Latest Market Info
NIG-GERMAN: 3RD QTR SEPT 2007

NIGERIAN GERMAN PLC, UNAUDITED RESULTS FOR NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30,2007

TURNOVER 07 N2.117b, 06 N1.982b

PBT 07 N206.822m, 06 N166.140m

TAXATION 07 (N62.047m) 06 (N49.842m)

PAT 07 N144.775m, 06 N116.298m


NIG-GERMAN closed up 0.700 at 27.010. Volume was 26% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 89% wider than normal.



Open High Low Close Volume___

26.310 27.010 26.310 27.010 72,043



Technical Outlook

Short Term: Neutral

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Long Term: Bullish

Price Trend Report:5 Moving Average: Current price is below 5-period moving average: 27.33

21 Moving Average: Current price is above 21-period moving average: 25.48

LSQ Analysis: Current price is 129% above its price trend.

Bollinger Band Analysis: Price Volatility: Increasing; Price Trend: Not in trend (probably is in sideway or reversing);

Hurst Trend Analysis: Hurst Exponent: 1.0000, current trend will continue



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Technical Indicators Report: Value Tips

RSI 62.2

MACD -0.3

CCI 28.2

DMI 43.4; 13.4

K%D 55.6; 57.5

NVI 25.0 Up trend is likly to continue.

OBV 3334.3

PVI 144.0 Price isnt likely to rise.



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TRW Stock Forecaster:Prediction for Next Three Prices: 26.91, 26.70, 26.56

Deviation*: 0.04

Price Direction(short term): Price will go down.

Hope this helps.
for the christians in the house keep tobechukwu in ur prayers tonight and this week.

@roughcut

are u some kinda genius? yes i'm a psychiatrist as if u didnt know

     

i can't stop laughing cuz of the goings on here honestly. what between strategys and "which stock should i buy" etc
i give up honestly. but honestly this isnt funny

while we are all entitled to our own opinions and ideas, there is the thing of being ur brother's keeper.  we all want to be independent as much as possible but we shouldn't let our brothers "dive into a tidal wave" (nice one ololufemi) under the pretext that we are all entitled to our own opinions. Remember its money we are talking about here and that means lives, not only of the owner but his wife, his children, mother, father, etc. This is even worse in Nigeria where there's a lot of borrowed money at expensive interest rates in the market. why do u think people in more developed markets around the world commit suicide on account on crashes in thier stock markets? I see such people in my outpatients clinic everyday, depressed and hopeless after losing everything. we dey play with lives here in the long run.

i cant say this enough and probably won't say it again before people take offence, investing is a plan that starts with a mental introspective look at urself and ur personality. what can u tolerate? are u an anxious kind of personality, do u have a patient outlook on investments? etc. all these are questions u need to ask urself befroe u throw in ur hard earned money. Chei i wish i could drum this home hard enough. i've heard people here say thjey are new to stock business and want to be recommended stock to throw money at, ha ur hard earned cash? to trust persons recommendation wey u never meet before or know where he is coming from? na wa o! on a faceless forum with unidentifiable people? i can only hope they use the recommendatuions to develop a story around the stock and be able to tell themselves and anyone why they are buying the stock apart from saying wanajo, easimoni, FOF2 et pumping recommended them      

i am my brother's keeper

got this from my brokers today

FIDELITYBK: TECHNICAL SUSPENSION LIFTED

WE HAVE TODAY LIFTED OFF THE TECHNICAL SUSPENSION PLACED ON FIDELITY BANK PLC FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF THEIR OFFER.




FIDELITYBK closed down -0.590 at 11.240. Volume was 6% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 744% wider than normal.



Open High Low Close Volume___

11.830 11.240 11.240 11.240 11,461,357



Technical Outlook

Short Term: Oversold

Intermediate Term: Bearish

Long Term: Bullish

Price Trend Report:5 Moving Average: Current price is below 5-period moving average: 11.55

21 Moving Average: Current price is below 21-period moving average: 11.75

LSQ Analysis: Current price is 3% above its price trend.

Bollinger Band Analysis: Price Volatility: Increasing; Price Trend: Down.

Hurst Trend Analysis: Hurst Exponent: 1.0000, current trend will continue



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Technical Indicators Report: Value Tips

RSI 0.0 Strong Buy.

MACD -0.1

CCI -432.7 Buy Opportunity.

DMI 0.0; 17.5

K%D 0.0; 33.3 Market is in down trend.

NVI 12.0

OBV 957729.9

PVI 161.4



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TRW Stock Forecaster:Prediction for Next Three Prices: 10.99, 10.85, 10.74

Deviation*: 0.02

@roughcut

and i take it u are not laughing. Neither am i man.
i put money in some of them and have resigned to my fate for now  

as me i don dey cashless economy till April na siddon look i dey (unfortunately)

@FOF2

Bros i tire o! u got right in one sentence!
this na wetin we dey talk. small gyrations dis week now every body dey vex, dey sweat.
why oh why. A company is good as long as fundamentals have not changed.

if u buy the good companies, try and close ur eyes to the daily gyrations of the NSE
anyway, without the hypertension wey this NSE go cause for naija how doctors go get heart attack to treat (being facicious now)

thats why if you have not got the stomach for gyrations try do the analysis (including if possilble sounding out ur guys on nairaland    ) before u invest and once u do decide to put ur money in, ignore the gyrations. As Mr Buffet says, "the market is fickle". good companies remain good until something drastic happens.

it is well.

lets welcome the bears to town and hope they have not packed their luggage to stay too long but come they must. Goats get slaughtered, bulls and bears make money( just think of it like this, if i have extra cash now, which companies are good to get right now that mr bear has arrived?)

can one reserve with different placement agents for the CHAMS PP? would that mean u fill out the form again each time u present ur cheque or is one form enough?

@wanajo

thanks for putting pennywise straight on it. he got all mixed up didnt he.

anyway i suppose it would have helped to look at the prospectus before assuming

by the way, managed to raise any dosh yet? i'm going with the little i have. my link in lagos says its on a first come first serve basis. i am going with the little cash i have on hand right now

sure big boys like u will get large preferential allotments

@pumping

i use TRW

@wanajo

i reckon pretty much that FBN is a buy at any price now (for the long term o! make peeps for here no quote me o)

what say u

most of them lost almost 5% today, interestingly oasinsins moved north.

with all the red i'm seeing here looks like the profit takers are returning from the christmas break. if this continues bargains are sure to appear soon

insurance took a BASHING today

ladies and gents,

as expected, UBA up to N50.5 today.

i can see pumping smiling now

Just a thought,

before we go ahead and crucify our dear country and its indigenes for having the copyright for "cooking" books and been fraudulent, lets not forget the ENRON and WORLDCOM sagas guys.

that involved the so called squeaky clean oyinbo man whose "shit" supposedly doesn't smell! (excuse my french).
Big companies like that that some of the world's biggest analysts like salomon smith barney (a big brokerage firm) said their stocks were a must have for any serious portfolio must have collapsed within months on the back of cooked books and insider trading.

the point is it is something of human nature unfortunately to be fraudulent whether u are black, white, red, nigerian, american or british.
the thing is that the companies in these countries have strong regulatory bodies to keep their practices in check and protect the investor from sharp practices. remember that these regulators were in place when enron and worldcom did their thing and it was the press of all people that broke the story before they moved in so even their well developed systems aren't perfect, we're all human afterall.

lets all be careful but don't throw the baby out with the bath water.(always wanted to say that  ).
Nigeria is still a good place to invest and that is why the rest of the world is waking up to it. If we let our cynicism get the better of us we will once again be locked out of our country's wealth like the case with oil where we can't even build and maintain our refineries and reely on the Shells and texaco and mobils of this world.
the big institutional investors with their fund cah will make it unreachable for the average nigerain so lets get a head start on them now.
BUT be circumspect in ur investment choices

nuff said

is it really true chams pp is closed, make una stop this rough play o!

anyway just been looking at my liquidity and its not looking good right now. May is a good month for me. some of my other investments go amture then and hopefully i'll get some good buys on the NSE then too

@pumping

sneaky devil       10%. haba na wa o. u too vex    

i tell my broker today make e buy the thing he begin ask me why. when i break am down for am (ratios and other gist) come spell n-a-i-r-a-l-a-n-d for am e shut up!    

@wanajo

loan, hmmmn, loan,hmmmn, loan,hmmmn,  invest chams, loan invest chams!

u just got me thinking, loan,loan,chams,loan,chams,!!!

wanajo stop am o!

@hbrednic

many thanks man. nice one

@wanajo

where can i get my hands on the prospectus et the forms, any ideas?

Can anyone repost the link to the CHAMS PP document please?

@wanajo

nice to see u here again

@pumping

fifty bucks says i beat u to UBA      

@naijadr

my sis and colleague, i could have been like u know if i had acted on my analysis in october but i didn't and now i'm not.
As pumping would say, chei! and double chei! anyway, god dey. i was just worried of the illiquidness (i don form new word o!).
there's another one i'm now looking at again but too afraid to say for the likes of easi et pumping      , and its not a bank or chellarams!!

on CHAMS sef, how person fit get in on that PP

come to think of it, the way the market has been this yr so far, i'm not sure the bulls have arrived yet u know. it seems they ust sent in their emissaries to announce their approach and people are beginning to sweep and clear plates and all the sort of things u do when u are expecting an important guest.
i think they will soon arrive in all their pump and pageantry

ha ha, lovely.

i see my brothers are applying learnt knowledge. well done fellas.

UBA is looking "not bad", if these earnings are to be believed. their brand name is well known too. one possible downside is the nickname that their CEO has in the sector, "cowboy".
i didn't say it, people did. he is seen as an "at all cost kinda guy which may be good at times but one should be careful. it could go either way i think.

lets wait and see.

@afamako

bros u are true to ur name. i figured it out many thanks.

anyone got outstanding shares for UBA?
i have 114986000000, i think this isnt accurate or am i wrong?

if PAT is 9.166B, i am getting an eps of 0.797 and a PE of 62.!!! I KNOW I'M WRONG.

Anyone got anything different?

sellas,
found this .
might waunt to archive it

http://www.intercontinentalbankplc.com/admin/otherimg/THINGS%20TO%20LOOK%20FOR%20IN%20AN%20INVESTMENT.pdf

lets see if i can add a few more ratios before my clinic starts this morning

Price/book ratio:
calculated by dividing the current price of the stock by its book vlue(obviously ). Now book value of a company in clear terms is just how much a company is worth if it were liquidated completely ie sold off. book value is calculated by dividing the common shareholders equity by the number of outstanding shares. so again price/book ratio is price of stock/(common share holders equity/number of outstanding shares.

ideally u want a number less than i which means that u are paying less for the share than its liquidation value.
BUT if u have a company wth a number greater than 2 don't rule it out completely if the business is earning good money and has a network, good brand name etc. example, coca cola. anyone can have a great formula for making cola but who has the brand name or distribution network of cocacola, see the point.
Use price/book ratio along with other ratios for a fuller picture to help with ur decision making

Price/sales ratio: calculated by dividing total Market capitalization by last 4 quarters of sales revenue. Can also be calculated more easily if u already know the price per share (we get that everyday on the NSE), and the sales per share (calculated by dividing the sales revenue by the number of outstanding shares).
example- our friend company A has 100 outstanding shares. its share price is say N25 and it makes sales in 2007 worth N100,000. its total market cap. is 100*25=2500. its PSR is therefore 2500/100,000=.025. this means u are paying N0.025 for every Naira of the companies sales.

PSR is good to use cuz in many ways it helps alleviate the fears inherent in EPS which is more open to manipulation. PSR is less likely and i dare say impossible to manipulate unless the company is downright fraudulent and lying, because it is basically the revenue the company has made from its sales chikena!

remember though that the EPS AND PSR are not mutually exclusive and therefore both should be used

Next ratio.

ROI Return on equity.
calculated by dividing net income by total shareholders equity(preferred + common euity)* 100
Best that this percentage be nice and big. i think 25% and above (not being greedy )

gotta run, work begins.
happy investing

@invisible

regarding IBTC, its probably best to compare its PE with that of other players in its industry for one, and then try use some other indicators to gain more of an idea of the stock. look at its 52wk high and low, look at its dividend yield and EPS.

hope this helps

@pumping777

thank u for the answers man. More insight shed as usual. grabdaloot, ur strategy has its merits too and is workable as u have proved with 1000% ROI, but to be clear, it is usable not for investing (which u agreed with) but rather for short term gigs and that is helped by using the PEG as u rightly said. the bottom line is basically if u have found a formula that works for u and helps u meet ur financial goals then by all means stick wth it. u shouldn't change a winning team.

happy investing

achika,

nice one girl. another weapon in the arsenal

grabdaloot

i differ a bit, no not a bit, a lot actually.dont lets compare apples and oranges. while they are both fruits, they contain different things.
companies in the same sector are similar in every sense of the word because they do the same business and therefore need the same expertise, infrastructure etc. thats why we are able to compare them. what would a bank and an oil company have in common? the are both companies i guess but thats about it. i'm sure thats why stock exchanges arrange companies into sectors

hope this helps

thanks pumping for answering the question on PE