₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
Otudeko na CA guru

But he has left. Yet expenditures grew by N40 billion between 2021 and 2022

Mankindman:
@pa Emma, I can't stop laughing ni KUTUKUTU OWURO
Your humor 🤣 is very funny
A new school of analysis is birthed.
"CORRUPTION ANALYSIS "
it is the vector quantity in RECURRENT EXPENDITURES AND COST OF SALES" that always eat 70% of profits of all quoted companies on NGX. They only declare profits whenever the cost of sales reduced significantly.

While pasting the expenditure breakdown for First Bank, focusing on the huge director emoluments going down by half. I noticed the total expenditure doubled between 2013 and 2022. Perhaps due to inflation. But compared to other banks First Bank seem to be bloated in expenses. May need to do a CA on the expenditure

emmanuelewumi:
Transcorp could have sold to the CEO, if they have Treasury shares
Extra compensation for CEOs must be approved by shareholders at the AGM.
I only know on 2 companies on NGX that offers stock options as part of employee compensation, Seplat and GTB.
Each time the options are exercised the outstanding shares will increase leading to dilution of shares.
I will advise people following Transcorp to hold on tightly to their shares

I referred to emoluments not extra compensation.

However, who approved the huge emoluments for FBNH directors?. See picture for last year and a decade ago below. A decade ago First Bank directors pocketed +N6b in emoluments. Double the +N3b they pocketed last year. Apart from SEPLAT, FBNH directors are the highest paid from what I have observed so far. So shareholders approved this ko?.

emmanuelewumi:
Who sold the shares to the CEO?

Where the shares warehoused?

Not aware of Treasury shares held by Transcorp to be given or sold to insiders

How do I know who sold to CEO. Am I an investigator

I thought what I wrote was explicit. Read it again. Maybe you scanned too fast.

emmanuelewumi:
In a stock option, the outstanding shares will increase.


In this case the CEO actually paid for the shares because he or she believes in the prospect of the business.

The CEO should have used the bonus pay for vacation, consumption etc

It could be an unwritten agreement to use a portion of bonus to acquire company shares when directors are awarded cash to buy shares instead of being given options.

purity2all:
That's almost her annual salary.

ololufemi:
A lot of time, those purchases by directors of companies are usually part of their emoluments or bonus pay for performance in the previous financial year.

emmanuelewumi:
When insiders are buying, it is a very good sign

Directors holding more of their company shares, encourage them to have some shareholder feelings.
In Transcorp's case, my guess is the money was released or awarded to her as emoluments specifically for use in buying Transcorp shares.

Thumbs up for Transcorp. The CEO herself has invested +N45m to pick up shares from the floor at approximately N3.15

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Owen_Omogiafo_Share_Dealing_-_Transcorp_Plc.pdf

Not a buy or sell advice. Just a notification on what's going on.

lasisi:
The way this stockmarket is going ehn. I am worried. Even stocks with fundamentals may struggle to justify their prices when results start rolling in.

Wanted to buy WAPCO. But digging in further it looks they may have a bad Q2 and full year 2023 as it seems they have sizeable forex loans and I doubt if they have enough exports to back up cashflow for the FX loans. Waiting to see if WAPCO Q2 results will be bad. Well market has not moved it up too much this year as Mr Market knows it is not one of the undervalued stocks. And not a light weight for easy speculative price swing. It's price swings are more inclined to come from FA insights .

Chai Stanbic IBTC now place UBA a speculative buy. With the Current devaluation I think UBA will benefit and do well. But their lack of good dividend payment has put question marks on UBA numbers and held it down. Not surprised ACCESS bank is not on their buy list. As this devaluation will likely not pay ACCESS as much compared to other banks like FBNH and UBA.

aremso:
Mercy the only mercy among us where u dey go ooo? Meanwhile, u never put your own input for my FTN question oo

I have FTN Cocoa in my portfolio. Bought first tranche at N2.90 based on Sentimental Analysis (SA). That Nigeria has a comparative advantage for Cocoa. Same SA that I used to buy PRESCO
But I have averaged down to N1.04 for FTN Cocoa since over a decade ago.

I can see they currently have negative SHF.

With the news around on new investors. FTN Cocoa is a HOLD for me. I think a turn around is possible.

airmark:
Please where can I check the daily closing prices, online?

So many places. Stock broker site, NGX site, news paper etc. Below is that for Stanbic IBTC.
https://www.stanbicibtcstockbrokers.com/nigeriastockbroking/stockbroking/market-news/equities-price-listing

.

Streetinvestor2:
Then the market is heading north once confirmed. The real mugus are coming back (FPI) It is time for locals to play them back by being smart. They played us before .life na turn by turn. Will be Buying back some of thr favourite and sound stock once cbn confirms the news


Pmb was the worst that happened to nigeria

He created generational valuation lows.

At today's high prices insiders are still mopping up.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/234_GTCO-_DIRECTOR_DEALINGS.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Insider_Dealing_Notification_To_NGX_-_Dr._Awele_Elumelu_(7th_June_2023).pdf

Mankindman:
Very soon, UBA will surely rise, Remember the stock market routinely follow the common saying "If the preferable is not available, then the available becomes the preferable "
This characteristic play a role in the Ascension of FBNH Access, ETI, and of recent Sterling Bank, Etena, and others.
same characteristic will play out on UBA. A better time to increase holding.
Nothing is wrong with UBA in both Technical and Fundamental aspects.
It is imminent, UBA will rise.

Even with todays closing price of N 10.9 , UBA has the lowest PE of 2.3 Lower than those of tier 2 banks. Which is an anomaly. The bears still have a strong hold on UBA to lule. UBA needs to cultivate market trust for the bulls to shrug off the bears. A steadily growing Q2 above Q1 and better interim and final dividend rewards is needed to engender market trust. Without it market will discount its financial statements.

Markets are leading indicators of economic direction.

What a delightful market today. The bulls came with a vengeance to root out some bears that have pressed down Nigerian stocks to serious lows. There are still so many bears lurking around, holding back stock prices at discount prices, far below fair values. The bulls are monitoring signals from the Government/Political Environment and will continue slaughtering the bears if these signals are good. Otherwise the bears will continue their reign as the bulls retreat. The bulls will retreat once they cannot see a better economy ahead. But will charge on and slaughter more bears if they see the prospects of the economy brightening.

Mpeace:
with the current prices of Access and fbnh, uba became too cheap

Access and FBNH are showing UBA the way to go with market price. Especially the way Access started exceeding UBA in price by more than N3

Access has also shown UBA the way to do with upping dividends. Market is still waiting for UBA response on that before closing any gap with Access.

blackbone989:
Can I buy shares of any bank or equity on my own. .

blackbone989:
Do u use a broker or u can buy on your own

Yes.

Just open an account with any stockbroker of your choice and you are good to start buying.

Look through this thread filtering for brokers and you'll get a feel of what brokers to start with.

The closing prices today shows a wide VPD between Access (N12.5) and UBA (N9.35) . This looks like the widest difference (N3.15) observed so far. Access and UBA ended 2022 with about the same EPS and BVPS. Bought more UBA today at N9.50

Market is dancing up and down. UBA danced up and down today. Opened at N9.45 danced down to N9.25 and up to N9.6 at about two hours to trade close. But in the last hours of trade a very big seller just came and dumped shares pulling the price down to N9.35 at close of trade.

Agbalowomeri:
But then, it appears that oil price has decoupled from naija stock exchange unlike those days when both were reasonably positively correlated. But maybe a dip to 50 or below could start impacting on the market.

OPEC cuts take sometimes before the influence is seen on oil price

Remember Emefiele screamed NNPC was remitting nadding to CBN coffer. Bloated petrol consumption subsidy costs, allegedly exceeded oil production income as oil prices rose. Hence the market decoupled oil price from NSE. And NSE has since been under-priced.

The market may be coupled back to oil prices, if subsidy removal progresses. That means market will go up from current level at what ever oil price is. Whether oil drops to $40 or rises to $120 per barrel the market will go up as market is currently bench marked to $0 per barrel for Nigeria.

emmanuelewumi:
The market closed flat today

FPI's and LPI's paused as I speculated. Till clarity on FX rates, NLC fuel strike threat and other stuff.

Ades1:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38633_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JUNE_2023.pdf


After all the suspense na 50 Kobo

2022 PAT looks low compared to prior year as there was no major recoveries from prior impairments in 2022.
The 2021 PAT was boosted by Atlantic Energy Ltd loan recoveries, which was previously written off.

On oil priced in $s, I think prices will remain flat or trend up in $s as long as there are no new step changes in alternatives for powering automobiles. Like the Sodium battery being developed by a Chinese firm succeeding in upstaging Lithium batteries with far cheaper prices coupled with other source of power breakthroughs outside fossil fuels.

Sodium shares some similarities with its brother Lithium in the period table. And is more abundant but currently delivers lower power rates, but the Chinese firm is researching aggressively and has reached a stage that its $10,000 EV cars have already started selling. And it's still not relenting in research.

For those waiting on further bullish action. I suspect FPI's have taken a pause to get clarity on exchange rates especially those that currently have FX and not naira to deploy to the market at this moment. Seems LPI's have deployed their funds already or taking a pause too, assessing stuff.

This pause may be a good time to do dd and do some further picks if one has spare funds.

Zagee:
Well said.

But all right policies are expected
to De-value the naira.

Nigeria is in one big maze over the next 12 months. And I see only the financial markets winning. Sadly, that's not all what constitute the Nigerian economy 😢

If the issue of security is resolved over the next 12 months, the commodity boards (the president talked about) kick off effectively and efficiently. The non oil export growth that can be seen in CBN data of the last couple of years will rise with a greater incline. The people and not only the markets will surely benefit if that plays out. As states and regions start exploiting their comparative advantages more aggressively for local and global consumption. Lot's of people like that guy with the vision of planting cassava will surely benefit. But some LPI's and FPI's who positioned early will reap more Essentially when they book profit on those who come very late to the party

yMcy56:
Thanks for sounding those warnings but just try and talk in plain terms that we night school students can understand.

Those buying huge volumes in market now are not really retailers, we don't know what they've seen or what Their mission is.

Whatever is ahead, we pray God see us through.

Perhaps FPI are taking positions. In a couple of weeks, NGX will tell us the split in FPI and LPI

emmanuelewumi:
Everyone is right, stocks on NGX are dirt cheap and most stocks can still do 25% in order to get to their intrinsic value.


Market sentiments, interest rates, happenings in global economy can still make stocks on NGX to lose


But on the long run market logic will always overtake market sentiment.


In the market, we have price and we have value. Ability to identify difference between price and value, and then use it to ones benefits is the key to a long term success in the stock market.


Surprised, those who sold GTB at N20 are now ready to buy at N30. No be juju be dat

Compared to the US and perhaps some other international economies stocks are over priced. Where prices are way ahead of value.

In Nigeria many stock prices are below value. Many stocks have been growing in value but not in price. It appears some local investors are not paying attention this.

Apart from the issue of price and value. EM's like Nigeria are growth areas compared to DM's.

Mixing all three issues of price, value and growth. There is an attraction for global fund managers to move some funds from over priced assets in the DM's to select EM's that currently have under priced assets. Especially where government policies are favorable. Hence there is a possibility that as assets re-price correctly downwards in the US, NSE will re-price correctly upwards towards fair values. To the extent in which this new government is rated. So how our new president moves in the next couple of weeks and months can prevent the global US asset meltdown from impacting NSE negatively. However banks with unduly large amounts of global assets may still be negatively impacted.

locodemy:
I discovered some didn't have up to 5m transactions yesterday but fall on the 10 10% category.Such stocks will go far if the bull continues.When Ftn cocoa started, it was doing below 5m daily transactions but on full bids.It has done 200% already and still counting.More are towing same footsteps

Total transaction on FTN Cocoa this month is N23million. For one doing small few thousands trading operations fair. But if the operations is millions naira worth, not much can be made, rather one risk getting stuck at time of exit. I have FTNCOCOA bought a long time back.

onegentleguy:
"The Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) and Transcorp Power the parent company of TransAfam Power Plant Ltd, yesterday signed a power purchase agreement for the 726 megawatts (MW) TransAfam Power Plant Ltd located in Okoloma, Rivers State.
The agreement which was signed in the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning is geared towards improving Nigeria's power generation capacity.
Speaking during the signing ceremony, the Managing Director/CEO of NBET, Dr Nnaemeka Ewelukwa, said the agreement exemplified the success of power sector privatization, noting that the agreement would run for 20 years.
He said the bidding was done by BPE and TransAfam Power won the bidding.
Subsequently, NBET got regulatory approvals from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP), Ministry of Justice, as well as presidential approval for the takeover..."

https://dailytrust.com/nbet-transcorp-sign-726mw-power-purchasing-pact/

I just can not come and kill myself for nothing.

It is well

This is making Transcorp look like a good investment for those already in the boat. Any global market crash should not really impact the revenues from the power business, nor crash its financial assets, which are real assets. And people must still consume power no matter what comes up.

Looking at the cashflow also. The amount due from the effective date of payment in July 2022 could account for the increase in cash outflow highlighted in the cashflow statement. That means Access has a high EPS for NSE shareholders at the moment. The only issue worth considering is increased risks to shareholders if any item in the increased loan book of Access goes bad. Though rate of growth of loan book is far far behind rate of growth of cash deposits, which looks prudent.

lagbaja:
I believe it is already charged under the interest expense for the year. The Tier1 loan is $500m (N206B). At the booked rate of 9.12%. The interest will amount to about N18.8B.

Frangel:
Terms for the Tier 1 capital ($500million) are actually stated on page 247 of the 2022 Annual reports. Rate now is 9.125%, payable from 7 July 2022. So should have been charged to arrive at the profit for the year.

According to the note on page 247, this tier 1 capital injection qualifies for a fixed annual interest of 9.125% till 2026 after when the instrument can become redeemable at the discretion of ACCESS. First coupon interest payment due 7 Jul 2022 and payment coupon be withheld by Access Bank.

Thus you should be right in the charges (entitlements) for this tier1 capital to be deducted before declaring profit.