₦airaland Forum

yok:
WHILE PEOPLE ARE SWEATING WAITING FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE FALLING PRICES- SOME PEOPLE ALREADY HAVE THE BLUEPRINT IN THEIR HAND
For our members these are some of the support levels we are looking at. We don't want to be sweating in the market everyday or risk our funds unecessarily.

Save yourself from the sweat/high blood pressure, get the full list of the likely support for some of theses stocks plus the updates and some other useful daily trading ideas.

RabbiDoracle:
NSE bearish? Some stocks could be, but the overall health of the market as seen from the index is still bullish.

From a high of 54,290 to current value of 49,546 is just 8.7% decline. This index doesn't look bearish.

BabsO2:
The sizeable chunk at N6.9 moved up to N6.95 today. But it looks like the major seller did not budge from N7.0 Because todays average price was 6.996 even though closing price was N6.95. Hence most likely a desperate seller with >= 100,000 units must have moved down the price at close of today.

BabsO2:
Demand for UBA remains strong, courtesy of bargain hunters that have expressed their quotes at lower prices. The seller seams bent on offloading but watchful on not depressing the price by announcing too much offer and releasing the sales in small bits. There is a resistance by the seller to sell below N7 at the moment.

Couldn't wait for N6.9 again. A sizeable chunk of people (11million units) have been queuing at this price for some days now, with the seller not budging.

emmanuelewumi:
I don't use EPS

emmanuelewumi:
You should also learn to detect audio EPS. I have a way of discounting the cash flow from operation, get the free cash flow for equity and use the the average of both as my alternative EPS.

essentialone:
Please what website is this snapshot?

RabbiDoracle:
Nothing like that for GTB. I only saw 23m units sold for the month of June 2022 sef.

Genesis Emerging had 183m as current HOLDING after selling 23m units in June 2022. So they can't sell 200m in July 2022.

Check well.

thesilentone:
There was a report in the Financial Times dated July 31st 2022 by Jonathan Wheatley titled ''Emerging markets hit by record streak of withdrawals by foreign investors" Global recession fears and rising interest rates drive rush for the exit. Anyone can read it online - didn't want to post the link because of the algos.

Although, Nigeria was not name-checked, quite a number of countries where including neighbouring Ghana. Should we expect more FPI sales, very likely.

Excerpts:
''Foreign investors have pulled funds out of emerging markets for five straight months in the longest streak of withdrawals on record, highlighting how recession fears and rising interest rates are shaking developing economies.

Cross-border outflows by international investors in EM stocks and domestic bonds reached $10.5bn this month according to provisional data compiled by the Institute of International Finance. That took outflows over the past five months to more than $38bn — the longest period of net outflows since records began in 2005.

The outflows risk exacerbating a mounting financial crisis across developing economies. In the past three months Sri Lanka has defaulted on its sovereign debt and Bangladesh and Pakistan have both approached the IMF for help. A growing number of other issuers across emerging markets are also at risk, investors fear.

Many low and middle-income developing countries are suffering from depreciating currencies and rising borrowing costs, driven by rate rises by the US Federal Reserve and fears of recession in major advanced economies. The US this week recorded its second consecutive quarterly output contraction.

“EM has had a really, really crazy rollercoaster year,” said Karthik Sankaran, senior strategist at Corpay.

Investors have also pulled $30bn so far this year from EM foreign currency bond funds, which invest in bonds issued on capital markets in advanced economies, according to data from JPMorgan.

The foreign currency bonds of at least 20 frontier and emerging markets are trading at yields of more than 10 percentage points above those of comparable US Treasury bonds, according to JPMorgan data collated by the Financial Times. Spreads at such high levels are often seen as an indicator of severe financial stress and default risk.''

thesilentone:
GT looks like it will complete its 100% retracement back to 16.90 area but one has to consider that the downward pull in March 2020 was after dividends were paid. Nothing on the charts suggests that it will bounce yet. Not on the monthly/weekly charts.

This is not advice just responding to your call out as I haven't see the rest of the charts but GT is definitely not in an uptrend yet.

Dum20:
Has anyone received Fidson Alert?

Meristem should not repeat the nonsense they did on FBNH

samguru:
certainly it will.

Banks assets quality has been impaired due to devaluation of naira

Increase in Monetary Policy rate will increase the risk on the existing loans

onegentleguy:
Don't watch for too long oo!

seyisanya:
How do you know that we're now in a full swing bear market? When you see a page or more of e-vawulence!

ositadima1:
The line-up with regards to upside potential, I am about 65% sure :

1. Fidelity
2. FBNH
3. ZENITHBANK
4. FCMB
5. GTCO
6. UBA

After arranging the stocks using the 4 reasons in the previous post it surprisingly matched their PE ratios - Fidelity with d least and UBA the largest!

RabbiDoracle:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/monkeypox-outbreak-constitutes-global-health-emergency-who-2022-07-23/


WHO has declared this a global health emergency.

Forecast remains same. See the sectors they want to crush. And see the sectors that could benefit.

Two things can happen :

(1) oil and other commodities crash as people panic and go indoors again as govt institutes another harsher lockdown.

(2) oil and other commodities don't crash as oil producers sell their commodities at their own high term and people don't go into lockdown. Other commodities rally to all time high.

In both cases, food remains sought after as you must eat to stay alive.

Lots of people are wearied by the lockdown and they could disobey this time ala Sri Lankan Style. This brings out another form of tighter control via electronic tagging, bank account restrictions, digital currencies (easier to know what you have and block your account once you are found in a questionable group of protesters), communication block etc.

You are not the cause of these events. So trade it.

gentop1:
Collected mine o. On the payment date

Payunsin:
I have access to loan facility at 17% / annum and I am tempted to take it and invest it in the stock market.
I have done margin trading in the past that almost bankrupted me, so I am also scared.
Uba and Gtb and Dangote Sugar are on my radar. Need more reccomendations and advise pls

DrAwo:
You are asking a core accounting/ financial reporting question...

Difficult to explain here (I'm still learning it myself) but I suggest you Google and read about IFRS 9.it has all the answers you seek...

jideflash:
Investment securities FVOCI that eroded, could be related to the ban of banks from OMO Bills by cbn.

onegentleguy:
You see the problem with that No 1 reason is that; it is like saying you'd prefer a company that gives you less after earning more (FCMB), than a company that gives you more after earning less. (UBA)

With reference to dividend YIELD (CGY in view), there are better ways to compare coys within the same sector.
A P2P comparison should always be a function of invested capital + equity pricing combined and not either line in isolation.

1st off, you are likely to get an approx 2.67% yield in the next 30-60 days investing in UBA (plausible 20k div in view) but zero yield investing in FCMB.
Now that makes the former better than the latter in the short/near term even without due consideration to fundamental value preposition.

Again as you rightly admitted, one is likely to make 6.7% more (difference in possible annual yield) investing in the "U" name ahead of the "F" assuming they decide to stake an equal amount of fund in UBA @ N7.5 and FCMB @ N3.

Of course, in both scenario, we are assuming that the other part of CGY (cap appreciation) is constant.

Your No 2 and 4 line is the more reason you should seek to align with a coy like UBA @ CMP ahead of FCMB.
As long as a coys fundamentals is healthy, VALUE is often better derived from a depressed equity position than otherwise.

With No 3, yes the chart of FCMB shows an accumulation, but that of UBA shows something even better (momentum ind in view) if one can do their homework well.

Bottomline: Both coys are good but there's a greater probability that an investor seeking higher yield will be better off aligning with UBA than FCMB at this time.
A portfolio % weighting of 70/30 with the former ahead of the latter should do just fine!

In the past, I've always said that I prefer ACCESS ahead of UBA. I still do. ...even in the near term.
But no doubt, UBA is better than FCMB.

If I were to rate banking names on a scale of value accretive stance AT PRESENT, it would be;
GTB>> ZENITH>> ACCESS>> UBA>> FIDELITY>> STANBIC>> FCMB>> FBNH>> WEMA>> STERLING>> JAIZ from LtR in descending order.
Note the phrase "at present"... so things could change in future.

Selah.