₦airaland Forum

longlife20:
Something is cooking in fidelity bank, some person has seen the result

They are cooking to raise capital

Princkez:
Seems FBNH is coming for right issue.....https://nairametrics.com/2023/07/24/femi-otedola-to-get-board-seat-on-fbnh-plc/

Aah FBNH want to do rights issue. This will cause dilution.

yMcy56:
Okay I don come back small.....

* The billionaires are on top FBNH matter again o...
Quite a lot of cross deals @21....
The drama continues....

With a book value of N38
Perhaps they will push market price above N30 very soon.

Frangel:
The value of the reserve would fluctuate with the amount invested in $ assets and the exchange rate.

Within the reporting period H1, FBNH must have acquired more $ assets as it shows in the StmtCshFlows. So the translation would not be just on the assets held as at Jan 1, 2023, hence almost x4.

I think analysis based on 2022FY or even 2023Q1 may still not be accurate, but are still good indicators, as indeed banks could easily have found a reason to acquire more $ assets than liabilities in their local and international operations. For example Access could have even acquired more than reported in prior issued reports, with it's further acquisition of banks in Africa, it could have shored up its net $ assets sometime this year strategically even more. It's only the H1 statements and Full year 2023 that will be clearer.

aj8:
1. First Bank N53.7bill
2. UBA. N41.7bill
3. Access N30.1bill
4. Zenith Bank N24.95bill
5. FCMB. N12.5bill
6. GTCO. (-N4.bill)

All as at 1st January 2023.

Should influence income statement in H1and[b] if the ratio of First Bank is anything to go by i.e N53.667 to N210.16 bill = x3.916 [/b], the maths could be interesting. Let’s see how the maths plays out with Zenith Bank H1 first.

This means UBA & FCMB are relatively under-priced compared to their piers. Perhaps Mr Market is penalizing them for being stingy with dividends and taking their financial statements with pinch of salt .

aj8:
1. First Bank N53.7bill
2. UBA. N41.7bill
3. Access N30.1bill
4. Zenith Bank N24.95bill
5. FCMB. N12.5bill
6. GTCO. (-N4.bill)

All as at 1st January 2023.

Should influence income statement in H1and[b] if the ratio of First Bank is anything to go by i.e N53.667 to N210.16 bill = x3.916 [/b], the maths could be interesting. Let’s see how the maths plays out with Zenith Bank H1 first.

Great tip to gaining insight. I hope all the banks computed out that column using the same approach.

FBNH halted the rally and restarted it without waiting for ministerial list

pluto09:
I was thinking the extraordinary profits would have come from foreign exchange gain. That particular segment actually recorded losses.
I am still trying to understand how they arrive at this Net gains/(losses) from financial instruments at fair value through profit or loss, huge I must say.
Could this be a prelude to what we should expect from other banks?
This is when you need oga Wanaj0 for better understanding!

Some banks will benefit more than others.

Note this: The top 5 benefactors will be FBNH, FCMB, GTCO, Zenith and UBA according to a Chapel Hill report.

Please this is not a buy or sell recommendation

Coolcash1:
FBN HOLDINGS PLC H1 JUNE 2023 RESULTS (UNAUDITED)
NGN 2023 vs 2022

Gross earnings: N656.552b vs N359.151b : +82.81%
Profit/(Loss) before tax: N206.261b vs N65.723b : +213.83%
Profit/(Loss) for the year: N187.237b vs N56.602b : +230.80%
Total comprehensive income/(Loss): N382.575b vs N19.45b : +1,866.97%
Net Assets (vs 31 Dec): N1378.316b vs N995.741b : +38.42%

Another round of bull expected tomorrow with this great result by FBNH...

The Book value per share jumped from N27.4 to N38
Ote$ and Otudeko knew they were mopping undervalued assets
Pray they will not get free hand to wreck it with rounds of impairment charges in years ahead.

Kingchuks:
FBN HOLDINGS PLC- QUARTER 2 - FINANCIAL STATEMENT FOR 2023

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39018_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2023.pdf

Oba and Ote$ must have seen this results from their projections and started mopping before even stockbroking and other analysts forecast any estimate. Now they are positioning to eat from two sides. As shareholders and board men.

Popson92:
What is ETI Please?

It's one of the banks. Ecobank Transnational inc

thesilentone:
This race Fidelity is running (not the stock) is worrisome in a way - maybe folks with better understanding can explain.

Private placement was approved less than a year ago, now the board is presenting another form of dilution with this Rights issue (Call options) and PO.

Whereas certain other coys are implementing share buybacks, they are increasing number of shares.

Am I being overly concerned?

If they don't loose investors money through bad loans, nothing to worry about. As there is a lot of money looking for viable investments. And Nigeria and the developing world need investment capital for entrepreneurial pursuits.

thesilentone:
From this, it would appear only ETI shows a reduction. I wonder what this represents for the tier 2 banks

Reduction in what ?

ETI has lost the highest amount of shareholder funds in the last ten years. If there were no impairments, ETI should have second to largest SHF northwards of N 1,700b

If the CRR is reduced for commercial banks, they need to be very prudent in this tough economy to mitigate a new wave of impairment charges and future legal wastages of shareholder funds. Impairment charges in the last 10 years recorded by banks vs their end year 2022 SHF are
ETI N1,100b vs 646b
FBNH N900b vs 983b
Access N450b vs 1,002b
Zenith N430b vs 1,378b
UBA N180b vs 887b
GTCO N180b vs 912b

emmanuelewumi:
Don't be surprised if this gets to the supreme court and they are on the case for another 8 years

More business for the lawyers and waste of shareholder funds.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39006_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-_NOTICE_OF_EGM_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JULY_2023.pdf

Fidelity planning to raise money through PO and Rights issue. To increase total shares about a third. No wonder the price has been moving far ahead of FCMB.

Harvestock01:
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/07/court-asks-ecobank-to-pay-n72-2bn-damages-in-favour-of-honeywell/

The rumble continues.

More money for Otudeko to buy more FBNH shares or to buy another company

I thought it was error that the entered 0 as revenue for Q2. How come? Yet expenses continued increasing the negative SHF. They need to resume ops

Heishere:
FTN Cocoa did not make any revenue this quarter.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39002_FTN_COCOA_PROCESSORS_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2023.pdf

kolaish:
Personally, I think Oba Otudeko and FBNH triggered the bears that is currently ravaging NGX. The market thrives on information and a little information can trigger massive bull or bears. The moment issues arose from the take-over bid, FBNH started downward movement which affected other banks and whenever you see Zenith and GTCo falling, the herds mentality easily comes in and people rush to sell.

I am interested in how it goes because there is money to be made from the saga. The matter is more of a concern to shareholders of Flour Mills of Nigeria and Honeywell than even FBNH. I see a situation where other major shareholders like Otedola and Odukale will increase their stakes in the near future. Within now and 6 months time, some will make millions in FBNH. For me, I will start buying from Monday.

Due Diligence please.

I think so as well that Otudeko/ETI/FBNH issue triggered the bears. It's resolution and good Q2 numbers amongst other political issues is needed for the bulls to resume.

I think also there is money to be made on two sides from FBNH. On one side are the directors and management, always making money with the high Opex structure of FBNH and avoidable unrecovered Impairment losses. And on the other side are shareholders who enter at discount prices, provided mngt corruption is reduced like it had been in the last 5years. Unlike the very heavy Impairments of years 2015 to 2017. Otudeko wants to enter at discount prices and eat from both sides.

BullBearMkt:
There appears to be a misunderstanding regarding the nature of the equity market. Many people lack comprehensive understanding of the mechanics of the stock market. It's crucial to recognize that the market operates on a zero-sum principle; for one investor to realise a profit, another must incur a loss. The market is not a field for effortless harvesting; it demands diligent effort, strategic planning, and effective risk management.

For those without an in-depth understanding of market dynamics, short-term may not be suitable for you. Instead, a long-term investment strategy may be more beneficial.

Philosophies

I do not like the zero sum principle at the short-end of the market.

But I like the growth principle that operates when companies create wealth. The growth principle that happens when one seed is planted in the right soil and conditions and yields 10s and 100s of seeds. Like investing in PRESCO or Okomu when prices were under N30 about a decade ago. This is the aspect of the Stockmarket I like. So I am inclined towards Longer Term Investing & Fundamental Analysis. A good stock is one that grows earnings as well as grows dividends. If dividends are on hold for a season, it should be because it is being put to use to safeguard future earnings growth.

Mcy56:
If you're not in urgent need of the money, then you can just leave it.....and buy more to average down the cost price should it pullback again.

- First Bank was coming from N3 and as at today, it's trading above N18!
- Meaning something positive must have been happening there and the stock is on right path.
- Dividend is increasing gradually after coming out of the wood, revenue is increasing, billionaires interests are on the increase. More good things seems to be happening there.

My area of concern is mostly in you not selling it at loss, then regret the action......if you MUST sell however, make sure you're channelling the fund to the area where you can get maximum value for your money.
My humble opinion.
* Sorry I'm not the figure quoting type. Maybe our fundamental gurus can help you out with this.

From their results, FBNH makes a lot of money. Their biggest issue apart from the loan issues that wiped out profits and seem to be very much taken care of right now. The bank seem to burn opex more at a faster rate than other banks. The bank has been growing customer deposits as it grew incomes. But opex is the wahala. If the opex goes down small or its growth muted, there will be more profits for shareholders. I also think currency devaluation may pay-off well for the bank in boosting shareholder funds in Naira terms.

Streetinvestor2:
He did this at 30 I guess and not present 60

That looks like a recent picture. He committed to exercises as early as 30

I wonder what he is really committing to pulling Africa out of poverty other than high level speeches and engagements. Perhaps transitioning the like of Transcorp to power houses .

***This is not an investment advisory****

Tony demonstrating benefit of long term discipline . Going strong at 60. I hope he is also ploughing the discipline into UBA and Transcorp and all his companies for the benefit of shareholders as well as stakeholders.

emmanuelewumi:
Multiply Price Book ratio by the reciprocal of the ROE.


That is what will give you PE


Read Benjamin Graham's works on how he got price book ratio based on the return on equity.


You can also goggle materials on how to get justified Price Book ratio for a security

Thanks.

.

.

emmanuelewumi:
Price Book ratio is determined by the Return On Equity, and you can use the Price Book ratio to calculate a justified Price Earning ratio for the stock

It's earnings growth projections that create bloated prices that cause the high P/B and PE's delivered by Market bulls. And if that growth falters, the bears come in.

An aggregate picture of global markets I saw from Afrinvest.
USA NASDAQ has the greatest over priced assets. This is where the bubble may burst first.
Which stocks are pushing the Nigeria "All Share index" P/B to 2 and PE to 11?. Must be the likes of DANGCEM ...Surely not the ones that rallied the most in the last two months?.

pluto09:
Access paid better dividend last financial year.
UBA will need to do better with dividend payment if they want to catch access.

This looks more than dividend o. After all, FBNH paid less.

However if UBA pays better dividend, it will wipe down the audio profits suspicion.

rahjan:
Who wapco offend make e forgive abeg. Abi wetin we go call this sluggish movement in a bull market

I think its FX loan may be weighing it down from being lifted by the bulls. Its Q2 will say more.

yMcy56:
Na so.
..but I think June's inflow will be higher than that of May.......and from the look of things, more will likely still enter in July, all things being equal.

Today Alone:
ACCESS: N4.14B !
GTCO: N2.6B !
ZEE: N2.5B !
UBA: N1.1B !
AIRTEL: N1.92B !

UBA: It seems someone is still accumulating and preventing the price from moving up.
We see how it goes in July, God willing....

I am still struggling to understand why UBA is lagging more and more behind Access. I thought fundamentally UBA is better than ACCESS when looking at 2022 data and year end market prices for investment earlier in the year. But with the closing trade of 2023 half year, ACCESS has dusted UBA further behind. It will be interesting to see mid year audited data for the banks. I wonder what exchange rate they will use for preparing their books.

emmanuelewumi:
Probably severance benefits to the retired directors

The growth area was not there but more on ops and maintenance expenses. It needs a full CA benchmark with other banks