₦airaland Forum

Ades1:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38633_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JUNE_2023.pdf


After all the suspense na 50 Kobo

2022 PAT looks low compared to prior year as there was no major recoveries from prior impairments in 2022.
The 2021 PAT was boosted by Atlantic Energy Ltd loan recoveries, which was previously written off.

On oil priced in $s, I think prices will remain flat or trend up in $s as long as there are no new step changes in alternatives for powering automobiles. Like the Sodium battery being developed by a Chinese firm succeeding in upstaging Lithium batteries with far cheaper prices coupled with other source of power breakthroughs outside fossil fuels.

Sodium shares some similarities with its brother Lithium in the period table. And is more abundant but currently delivers lower power rates, but the Chinese firm is researching aggressively and has reached a stage that its $10,000 EV cars have already started selling. And it's still not relenting in research.

For those waiting on further bullish action. I suspect FPI's have taken a pause to get clarity on exchange rates especially those that currently have FX and not naira to deploy to the market at this moment. Seems LPI's have deployed their funds already or taking a pause too, assessing stuff.

This pause may be a good time to do dd and do some further picks if one has spare funds.

Zagee:
Well said.

But all right policies are expected
to De-value the naira.

Nigeria is in one big maze over the next 12 months. And I see only the financial markets winning. Sadly, that's not all what constitute the Nigerian economy 😢

If the issue of security is resolved over the next 12 months, the commodity boards (the president talked about) kick off effectively and efficiently. The non oil export growth that can be seen in CBN data of the last couple of years will rise with a greater incline. The people and not only the markets will surely benefit if that plays out. As states and regions start exploiting their comparative advantages more aggressively for local and global consumption. Lot's of people like that guy with the vision of planting cassava will surely benefit. But some LPI's and FPI's who positioned early will reap more Essentially when they book profit on those who come very late to the party

yMcy56:
Thanks for sounding those warnings but just try and talk in plain terms that we night school students can understand.

Those buying huge volumes in market now are not really retailers, we don't know what they've seen or what Their mission is.

Whatever is ahead, we pray God see us through.

Perhaps FPI are taking positions. In a couple of weeks, NGX will tell us the split in FPI and LPI

emmanuelewumi:
Everyone is right, stocks on NGX are dirt cheap and most stocks can still do 25% in order to get to their intrinsic value.


Market sentiments, interest rates, happenings in global economy can still make stocks on NGX to lose


But on the long run market logic will always overtake market sentiment.


In the market, we have price and we have value. Ability to identify difference between price and value, and then use it to ones benefits is the key to a long term success in the stock market.


Surprised, those who sold GTB at N20 are now ready to buy at N30. No be juju be dat

Compared to the US and perhaps some other international economies stocks are over priced. Where prices are way ahead of value.

In Nigeria many stock prices are below value. Many stocks have been growing in value but not in price. It appears some local investors are not paying attention this.

Apart from the issue of price and value. EM's like Nigeria are growth areas compared to DM's.

Mixing all three issues of price, value and growth. There is an attraction for global fund managers to move some funds from over priced assets in the DM's to select EM's that currently have under priced assets. Especially where government policies are favorable. Hence there is a possibility that as assets re-price correctly downwards in the US, NSE will re-price correctly upwards towards fair values. To the extent in which this new government is rated. So how our new president moves in the next couple of weeks and months can prevent the global US asset meltdown from impacting NSE negatively. However banks with unduly large amounts of global assets may still be negatively impacted.

locodemy:
I discovered some didn't have up to 5m transactions yesterday but fall on the 10 10% category.Such stocks will go far if the bull continues.When Ftn cocoa started, it was doing below 5m daily transactions but on full bids.It has done 200% already and still counting.More are towing same footsteps

Total transaction on FTN Cocoa this month is N23million. For one doing small few thousands trading operations fair. But if the operations is millions naira worth, not much can be made, rather one risk getting stuck at time of exit. I have FTNCOCOA bought a long time back.

onegentleguy:
"The Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) and Transcorp Power the parent company of TransAfam Power Plant Ltd, yesterday signed a power purchase agreement for the 726 megawatts (MW) TransAfam Power Plant Ltd located in Okoloma, Rivers State.
The agreement which was signed in the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning is geared towards improving Nigeria's power generation capacity.
Speaking during the signing ceremony, the Managing Director/CEO of NBET, Dr Nnaemeka Ewelukwa, said the agreement exemplified the success of power sector privatization, noting that the agreement would run for 20 years.
He said the bidding was done by BPE and TransAfam Power won the bidding.
Subsequently, NBET got regulatory approvals from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP), Ministry of Justice, as well as presidential approval for the takeover..."

https://dailytrust.com/nbet-transcorp-sign-726mw-power-purchasing-pact/

I just can not come and kill myself for nothing.

It is well

This is making Transcorp look like a good investment for those already in the boat. Any global market crash should not really impact the revenues from the power business, nor crash its financial assets, which are real assets. And people must still consume power no matter what comes up.

Looking at the cashflow also. The amount due from the effective date of payment in July 2022 could account for the increase in cash outflow highlighted in the cashflow statement. That means Access has a high EPS for NSE shareholders at the moment. The only issue worth considering is increased risks to shareholders if any item in the increased loan book of Access goes bad. Though rate of growth of loan book is far far behind rate of growth of cash deposits, which looks prudent.

lagbaja:
I believe it is already charged under the interest expense for the year. The Tier1 loan is $500m (N206B). At the booked rate of 9.12%. The interest will amount to about N18.8B.

Frangel:
Terms for the Tier 1 capital ($500million) are actually stated on page 247 of the 2022 Annual reports. Rate now is 9.125%, payable from 7 July 2022. So should have been charged to arrive at the profit for the year.

According to the note on page 247, this tier 1 capital injection qualifies for a fixed annual interest of 9.125% till 2026 after when the instrument can become redeemable at the discretion of ACCESS. First coupon interest payment due 7 Jul 2022 and payment coupon be withheld by Access Bank.

Thus you should be right in the charges (entitlements) for this tier1 capital to be deducted before declaring profit.

DrAwo:
As Mpeace pointed out, kindly double check your numbers...

Also we need to ask why the numbers for 2022 came in that way (Ghana bond wahala). Will that continue this year? Maybe or maybe not. Excluding the Ghana write down, what would 2022 EPs have been? If gahna bonds do not raise their head again this year (hopefully not), how will 2023 EPs look like as compared with 2022 and with current price?

Answers to these questions will help one decide the direction access might be heading to.

What do you mean by tier 1 capital issued? All banks have tier 1 and 2 capital. Do you mind elaborating on what you meant.

Access raised additional tier 1 capital about two years ago. The providers of this capital deserve a share of profits. The annual reports does not state explicitly what portion of profits belong to these equity stake holders. It will be wrong to assume all the profit attributable to shareholders for Access belong to NSE listed share holders when they were not the ones that injected the additional tier 1 capital 2 years ago. Look at the two clips from their financial statements below to help further appreciate the issue. Hope you get it now why I discounted the EPS of NSE shareholders.

Even after apportioning a portion of profits to the Tier 1 Equity Stake holders in proportion to the size of their Equity. Access EPS of N3.57 for 2022 is still very good. Plus the rate at which Access has grown incomes in the last couple of years has been excellent. Perhaps the foreign acquisitions have done very well and the Injected Tier 1 capital completed in FX was good. And as you noted if Ghana impairment is discounted, Access is doing very well.

yMcy56:
Heavy funds really entering this market .......
GTCO resumes the buying spree today again ....

LPI's and or FPI's taking positions. Hope by the time masses wake up again and rush into NSE, they will not dump on them. By then it will be in the news the best thing bla bla to do is be in NSE. If you are not in, you are missing bla bla. Then people will rush in while they cash out.

Lion123:
I don't know. I'm really thinking of going in heavy on Access Corp. It's trading at the lowest PE compared to the other tier-one banks, and it looks like it had the best performing result in Q1. What do the gurus advise?

ACCESS had EPS over the last three years of (2020, 2021 and 2022) of N2.95, N3.56 and N3.57. These numbers makes it not qualify for lowest PE based on todays closing price of N10.20

Since Access has Tier 1 capital issued. Owners of these Tier 1 capital are entitled to profits. And it will be erroneous not to somehow discount for their entitlement when calculating the EPS for access for holders of its stock traded on the NSE.

Caveat: I am not a guru. Just a hobbyist. I am still learning and gaining market experience here. Have a very high grade in Business Accounting in MBA completed.

thesilentone:
Zenith Volume: increased for the past 5 weeks with corresponding price action
GTCO Volume : increased for the past 3 weeks with corresponding price action

Your assertion that FPIs might be entering the market is valid.

Whether it's LPI or FPI doing this, might not be a bad idea if one has loose money not in use for a month or two, to place it in the market for 1 to 2 months trading.

Caveat: Not an investment advice. Due diligence and personal situations should dictate actions.

BabsO2:
It is now paining me that I missed loading GTCO at about N18 while waiting for a price of N17 when I had the funds to buy around last quarter of last year. Being too greedy in search of lower prices sometimes has negative risks and painful consequences of getting nadding

The way GTCO is flying. Looks like some FPI's are already sneaking back. Till I find time to look up if their holdings have been updated on morning star. They seem to like GTCO and the 2022 FY and 2023Q1 suggest GTCO has turned around from the low quarterly earnings I & perhaps some others were worried about.

GTCO gained a further N1.05 today to close at N 26.15 While Zenith gained only N0.65 and closed at N25.15

ositadima1:
estimated fair value

Thanks, even simpler than the PE route I was imagining as both have the same denominator of EPS. It's a concept of high value accretive stance if I pick up @OGG's finance vocabulary

ositadima1:
Here are some stocks, their fair values, and their divergence from fair value (VPD). I used 2022 reports as my source. PE was as of yesterday. You can see that I sorted them in order of rising PE.

I feel and like this VPD thing and must have been using it intuitively in stock selection without knowing that I was using the concept. On your picture was the VPD calculated based on your estimated fair value PE dividend by current market PE ?

yMcy56:
The kind vex wey GT dey vex ehnnnn....
Now @26.10......Up with +N1....

GT is now forcing ZENITH to move .....

MANSARD: Sighted @2.73......this one go still touch 3 las las.

Cornerstone: Na +N1 stock.... We go see how it will go.

If PFIs should even come, they'll be found in the likes of GT and other solid stocks....

It is now paining me that I missed loading GTCO at about N18 while waiting for a price of N17 when I had the funds to buy around last quarter of last year. Being too greedy in search of lower prices sometimes has negative risks and painful consequences of getting nadding

2023H2 may be good for the NSE with these kind of headlines. Has volumes increased compared to similar periods in prior years?. Only a quick check can confirm this.

Yoast:
Some people just expect prices to continue hovering around the same range for eternity. If you check Zenith and GTB, you'll notice that prices are still around 2018 range. And some people expect this to continue in 2023, and for how long? There will come a time when these prices will correct for inflation and naira devaluation. Perhaps 2023 s the year. We're watching

Prices also need to correct for improvement in the underlying assets. BVPS and EPS have been growing while prices have not trended in the same direction in the last five years thereby increasing the VPD. (@onegentleguy, I hope I used VPD correctly )

ositadima1:
Says the guy who spends most of his time on NSEMPA threads dropping one-liners.

So, according to you, Access Bank just woke up one day and decided to invest millions of dollars in a project to catch clout?

I bet you didn't read where Access Bank clearly mentioned that this was some form of solution for some Francophone African countries where it is currently present.

Great. So that will facilitate correspondence operations and international transaction ops.

Agbalowomeri:
Still won't generate value Lol. Just dey gather inefficient assets everywhere

They must have other objectives for acquiring these assets apart from immediate profit. On the bright side it can facilitate correspondence operations and international transaction ops. How beneficial this I don't know. On the dark side, it should facilitate laundering ops I guess. Sadly, some big international businesses have their dark sides.

GreatEko:
2,063,484,991 units

Ah Nah billion. Better then

onegentleguy:
I guess you meant to say over 2 billion.
...it's actually 2,063,484,991 units @ N3.12 to be precise.
By the way, the said relation is Sir TE's wife, Dr. Awele Elumelu.

It is well

Ah Nah Billion. Better then.
And Nah Madam Buy am. Much Much Better Then

Good to see relatives of Tony loading up Transcorp shares. Here a relative is reported to have bought 2million shares at N3.12 earlier this month.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Executed_Insider_Dealing_Notification_-_Dr._Awele_Elumelu_(_12th_May_23).pdf

emmanuelewumi:
GTB share capitalization history


1 for 4 2002

1 for 5 2003

1 for 3 2004

Public offer 2005

1 for 3 2006

1 for 4 2007

1 for 10 2008

1 for 4 2008

1 for 4 2009


1 for 4 2010.



Bonus was issued twice in 2008, when they moved their financial year from March to December.



Unfortunately they have stopped issuing bonus shares to shareholders

GT has tried over the years. Their GDR issued in 2007 now yields after tax deduction a dividend yield of 21% based on total dividend for year 2022. This is factoring all the bonusses issued. That is just purely based on invested capital. I think issuing or not issuing bonus has no fundamental benefit. But just a deceptive feeling of having more numbers of shares which may or may not translate to increased returns. The best they can do is just to remain sound, like not loosing investors money like some banks did after all the PO rounds.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38385_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-_CORPORATE_ACTION_2022FY_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2023.pdf

Fidelity will be paying 40kobo dividend
Qualification Date: 12May2023
Payment Date: 23May2023

With the interim dividend of 10kobo already paid in September last year, this brings total dividend from Fidelity to 50Kobo

First Bank should be ashamed of itself if it pays 50 Kobo or less. Last year First Bank came to the level of Fidelity by only paying 35Kobo as full year dividend.

vacanci:
Not lower than Morgan

Exact numbers will be better to know how far out.

Apart from costs, IBTC web trading platform does not give a good view of current bids, offers and their sizes like FSDH does. So even when placing a trade through IBTC I usually log into FSDH eTrade to give me a feel of that day's (time) bid and offers. A negative for IBTC.

locodemy:
Pls who owns Atlas cititrader.I want to know more about them.
Do you also know if stanbic ibtc stock broker is good.

Stanbic IBTC is good. I find their trading fees lower than other brokers I use.

BabsO2:
Where can one monitor this off market trade information ?

Possible the deal was real as that's a high volume. Many doing such high trades - that is the buyer and the seller - could have various motivations. Such deals are not impossible.

Looking at the daily price list and market wrap up from Stanbic IBTC sent to my email, I noticed the additional columns I have not been looking at contains information on off Market Volume and value

Today 4th of May 2023, Transcorp recorded an off Market volume of 0.5billion units at a price of N1.265b. That is at an average price of N2.53 for the off market trade. Meanwhile Todays opening price was N 2.29 and closing price was N 2.15

emmanuelewumi:
A businessman can acquire more assets for his business within a year by carefully spending less than what the business earned, yet could not declare profit for the year

The hidden cost of depreciation can account for that .