₦airaland Forum

Tony demonstrating benefit of long term discipline . Going strong at 60. I hope he is also ploughing the discipline into UBA and Transcorp and all his companies for the benefit of shareholders as well as stakeholders.

emmanuelewumi:
Multiply Price Book ratio by the reciprocal of the ROE.


That is what will give you PE


Read Benjamin Graham's works on how he got price book ratio based on the return on equity.


You can also goggle materials on how to get justified Price Book ratio for a security

Thanks.

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emmanuelewumi:
Price Book ratio is determined by the Return On Equity, and you can use the Price Book ratio to calculate a justified Price Earning ratio for the stock

It's earnings growth projections that create bloated prices that cause the high P/B and PE's delivered by Market bulls. And if that growth falters, the bears come in.

An aggregate picture of global markets I saw from Afrinvest.
USA NASDAQ has the greatest over priced assets. This is where the bubble may burst first.
Which stocks are pushing the Nigeria "All Share index" P/B to 2 and PE to 11?. Must be the likes of DANGCEM ...Surely not the ones that rallied the most in the last two months?.

pluto09:
Access paid better dividend last financial year.
UBA will need to do better with dividend payment if they want to catch access.

This looks more than dividend o. After all, FBNH paid less.

However if UBA pays better dividend, it will wipe down the audio profits suspicion.

rahjan:
Who wapco offend make e forgive abeg. Abi wetin we go call this sluggish movement in a bull market

I think its FX loan may be weighing it down from being lifted by the bulls. Its Q2 will say more.

yMcy56:
Na so.
..but I think June's inflow will be higher than that of May.......and from the look of things, more will likely still enter in July, all things being equal.

Today Alone:
ACCESS: N4.14B !
GTCO: N2.6B !
ZEE: N2.5B !
UBA: N1.1B !
AIRTEL: N1.92B !

UBA: It seems someone is still accumulating and preventing the price from moving up.
We see how it goes in July, God willing....

I am still struggling to understand why UBA is lagging more and more behind Access. I thought fundamentally UBA is better than ACCESS when looking at 2022 data and year end market prices for investment earlier in the year. But with the closing trade of 2023 half year, ACCESS has dusted UBA further behind. It will be interesting to see mid year audited data for the banks. I wonder what exchange rate they will use for preparing their books.

emmanuelewumi:
Probably severance benefits to the retired directors

The growth area was not there but more on ops and maintenance expenses. It needs a full CA benchmark with other banks

emmanuelewumi:
Otudeko na CA guru

But he has left. Yet expenditures grew by N40 billion between 2021 and 2022

Mankindman:
@pa Emma, I can't stop laughing ni KUTUKUTU OWURO
Your humor 🤣 is very funny
A new school of analysis is birthed.
"CORRUPTION ANALYSIS "
it is the vector quantity in RECURRENT EXPENDITURES AND COST OF SALES" that always eat 70% of profits of all quoted companies on NGX. They only declare profits whenever the cost of sales reduced significantly.

While pasting the expenditure breakdown for First Bank, focusing on the huge director emoluments going down by half. I noticed the total expenditure doubled between 2013 and 2022. Perhaps due to inflation. But compared to other banks First Bank seem to be bloated in expenses. May need to do a CA on the expenditure

emmanuelewumi:
Transcorp could have sold to the CEO, if they have Treasury shares
Extra compensation for CEOs must be approved by shareholders at the AGM.
I only know on 2 companies on NGX that offers stock options as part of employee compensation, Seplat and GTB.
Each time the options are exercised the outstanding shares will increase leading to dilution of shares.
I will advise people following Transcorp to hold on tightly to their shares

I referred to emoluments not extra compensation.

However, who approved the huge emoluments for FBNH directors?. See picture for last year and a decade ago below. A decade ago First Bank directors pocketed +N6b in emoluments. Double the +N3b they pocketed last year. Apart from SEPLAT, FBNH directors are the highest paid from what I have observed so far. So shareholders approved this ko?.

emmanuelewumi:
Who sold the shares to the CEO?

Where the shares warehoused?

Not aware of Treasury shares held by Transcorp to be given or sold to insiders

How do I know who sold to CEO. Am I an investigator

I thought what I wrote was explicit. Read it again. Maybe you scanned too fast.

emmanuelewumi:
In a stock option, the outstanding shares will increase.


In this case the CEO actually paid for the shares because he or she believes in the prospect of the business.

The CEO should have used the bonus pay for vacation, consumption etc

It could be an unwritten agreement to use a portion of bonus to acquire company shares when directors are awarded cash to buy shares instead of being given options.

purity2all:
That's almost her annual salary.

ololufemi:
A lot of time, those purchases by directors of companies are usually part of their emoluments or bonus pay for performance in the previous financial year.

emmanuelewumi:
When insiders are buying, it is a very good sign

Directors holding more of their company shares, encourage them to have some shareholder feelings.
In Transcorp's case, my guess is the money was released or awarded to her as emoluments specifically for use in buying Transcorp shares.

Thumbs up for Transcorp. The CEO herself has invested +N45m to pick up shares from the floor at approximately N3.15

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Owen_Omogiafo_Share_Dealing_-_Transcorp_Plc.pdf

Not a buy or sell advice. Just a notification on what's going on.

lasisi:
The way this stockmarket is going ehn. I am worried. Even stocks with fundamentals may struggle to justify their prices when results start rolling in.

Wanted to buy WAPCO. But digging in further it looks they may have a bad Q2 and full year 2023 as it seems they have sizeable forex loans and I doubt if they have enough exports to back up cashflow for the FX loans. Waiting to see if WAPCO Q2 results will be bad. Well market has not moved it up too much this year as Mr Market knows it is not one of the undervalued stocks. And not a light weight for easy speculative price swing. It's price swings are more inclined to come from FA insights .

Chai Stanbic IBTC now place UBA a speculative buy. With the Current devaluation I think UBA will benefit and do well. But their lack of good dividend payment has put question marks on UBA numbers and held it down. Not surprised ACCESS bank is not on their buy list. As this devaluation will likely not pay ACCESS as much compared to other banks like FBNH and UBA.

aremso:
Mercy the only mercy among us where u dey go ooo? Meanwhile, u never put your own input for my FTN question oo

I have FTN Cocoa in my portfolio. Bought first tranche at N2.90 based on Sentimental Analysis (SA). That Nigeria has a comparative advantage for Cocoa. Same SA that I used to buy PRESCO
But I have averaged down to N1.04 for FTN Cocoa since over a decade ago.

I can see they currently have negative SHF.

With the news around on new investors. FTN Cocoa is a HOLD for me. I think a turn around is possible.

airmark:
Please where can I check the daily closing prices, online?

So many places. Stock broker site, NGX site, news paper etc. Below is that for Stanbic IBTC.
https://www.stanbicibtcstockbrokers.com/nigeriastockbroking/stockbroking/market-news/equities-price-listing

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Streetinvestor2:
Then the market is heading north once confirmed. The real mugus are coming back (FPI) It is time for locals to play them back by being smart. They played us before .life na turn by turn. Will be Buying back some of thr favourite and sound stock once cbn confirms the news


Pmb was the worst that happened to nigeria

He created generational valuation lows.

At today's high prices insiders are still mopping up.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/234_GTCO-_DIRECTOR_DEALINGS.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Insider_Dealing_Notification_To_NGX_-_Dr._Awele_Elumelu_(7th_June_2023).pdf

Mankindman:
Very soon, UBA will surely rise, Remember the stock market routinely follow the common saying "If the preferable is not available, then the available becomes the preferable "
This characteristic play a role in the Ascension of FBNH Access, ETI, and of recent Sterling Bank, Etena, and others.
same characteristic will play out on UBA. A better time to increase holding.
Nothing is wrong with UBA in both Technical and Fundamental aspects.
It is imminent, UBA will rise.

Even with todays closing price of N 10.9 , UBA has the lowest PE of 2.3 Lower than those of tier 2 banks. Which is an anomaly. The bears still have a strong hold on UBA to lule. UBA needs to cultivate market trust for the bulls to shrug off the bears. A steadily growing Q2 above Q1 and better interim and final dividend rewards is needed to engender market trust. Without it market will discount its financial statements.

Markets are leading indicators of economic direction.

What a delightful market today. The bulls came with a vengeance to root out some bears that have pressed down Nigerian stocks to serious lows. There are still so many bears lurking around, holding back stock prices at discount prices, far below fair values. The bulls are monitoring signals from the Government/Political Environment and will continue slaughtering the bears if these signals are good. Otherwise the bears will continue their reign as the bulls retreat. The bulls will retreat once they cannot see a better economy ahead. But will charge on and slaughter more bears if they see the prospects of the economy brightening.

Mpeace:
with the current prices of Access and fbnh, uba became too cheap

Access and FBNH are showing UBA the way to go with market price. Especially the way Access started exceeding UBA in price by more than N3

Access has also shown UBA the way to do with upping dividends. Market is still waiting for UBA response on that before closing any gap with Access.

blackbone989:
Can I buy shares of any bank or equity on my own. .

blackbone989:
Do u use a broker or u can buy on your own

Yes.

Just open an account with any stockbroker of your choice and you are good to start buying.

Look through this thread filtering for brokers and you'll get a feel of what brokers to start with.

The closing prices today shows a wide VPD between Access (N12.5) and UBA (N9.35) . This looks like the widest difference (N3.15) observed so far. Access and UBA ended 2022 with about the same EPS and BVPS. Bought more UBA today at N9.50

Market is dancing up and down. UBA danced up and down today. Opened at N9.45 danced down to N9.25 and up to N9.6 at about two hours to trade close. But in the last hours of trade a very big seller just came and dumped shares pulling the price down to N9.35 at close of trade.

Agbalowomeri:
But then, it appears that oil price has decoupled from naija stock exchange unlike those days when both were reasonably positively correlated. But maybe a dip to 50 or below could start impacting on the market.

OPEC cuts take sometimes before the influence is seen on oil price

Remember Emefiele screamed NNPC was remitting nadding to CBN coffer. Bloated petrol consumption subsidy costs, allegedly exceeded oil production income as oil prices rose. Hence the market decoupled oil price from NSE. And NSE has since been under-priced.

The market may be coupled back to oil prices, if subsidy removal progresses. That means market will go up from current level at what ever oil price is. Whether oil drops to $40 or rises to $120 per barrel the market will go up as market is currently bench marked to $0 per barrel for Nigeria.

emmanuelewumi:
The market closed flat today

FPI's and LPI's paused as I speculated. Till clarity on FX rates, NLC fuel strike threat and other stuff.