₦airaland Forum

DrAwo:
As Mpeace pointed out, kindly double check your numbers...

Also we need to ask why the numbers for 2022 came in that way (Ghana bond wahala). Will that continue this year? Maybe or maybe not. Excluding the Ghana write down, what would 2022 EPs have been? If gahna bonds do not raise their head again this year (hopefully not), how will 2023 EPs look like as compared with 2022 and with current price?

Answers to these questions will help one decide the direction access might be heading to.

What do you mean by tier 1 capital issued? All banks have tier 1 and 2 capital. Do you mind elaborating on what you meant.

Access raised additional tier 1 capital about two years ago. The providers of this capital deserve a share of profits. The annual reports does not state explicitly what portion of profits belong to these equity stake holders. It will be wrong to assume all the profit attributable to shareholders for Access belong to NSE listed share holders when they were not the ones that injected the additional tier 1 capital 2 years ago. Look at the two clips from their financial statements below to help further appreciate the issue. Hope you get it now why I discounted the EPS of NSE shareholders.

Even after apportioning a portion of profits to the Tier 1 Equity Stake holders in proportion to the size of their Equity. Access EPS of N3.57 for 2022 is still very good. Plus the rate at which Access has grown incomes in the last couple of years has been excellent. Perhaps the foreign acquisitions have done very well and the Injected Tier 1 capital completed in FX was good. And as you noted if Ghana impairment is discounted, Access is doing very well.

yMcy56:
Heavy funds really entering this market .......
GTCO resumes the buying spree today again ....

LPI's and or FPI's taking positions. Hope by the time masses wake up again and rush into NSE, they will not dump on them. By then it will be in the news the best thing bla bla to do is be in NSE. If you are not in, you are missing bla bla. Then people will rush in while they cash out.

Lion123:
I don't know. I'm really thinking of going in heavy on Access Corp. It's trading at the lowest PE compared to the other tier-one banks, and it looks like it had the best performing result in Q1. What do the gurus advise?

ACCESS had EPS over the last three years of (2020, 2021 and 2022) of N2.95, N3.56 and N3.57. These numbers makes it not qualify for lowest PE based on todays closing price of N10.20

Since Access has Tier 1 capital issued. Owners of these Tier 1 capital are entitled to profits. And it will be erroneous not to somehow discount for their entitlement when calculating the EPS for access for holders of its stock traded on the NSE.

Caveat: I am not a guru. Just a hobbyist. I am still learning and gaining market experience here. Have a very high grade in Business Accounting in MBA completed.

thesilentone:
Zenith Volume: increased for the past 5 weeks with corresponding price action
GTCO Volume : increased for the past 3 weeks with corresponding price action

Your assertion that FPIs might be entering the market is valid.

Whether it's LPI or FPI doing this, might not be a bad idea if one has loose money not in use for a month or two, to place it in the market for 1 to 2 months trading.

Caveat: Not an investment advice. Due diligence and personal situations should dictate actions.

BabsO2:
It is now paining me that I missed loading GTCO at about N18 while waiting for a price of N17 when I had the funds to buy around last quarter of last year. Being too greedy in search of lower prices sometimes has negative risks and painful consequences of getting nadding

The way GTCO is flying. Looks like some FPI's are already sneaking back. Till I find time to look up if their holdings have been updated on morning star. They seem to like GTCO and the 2022 FY and 2023Q1 suggest GTCO has turned around from the low quarterly earnings I & perhaps some others were worried about.

GTCO gained a further N1.05 today to close at N 26.15 While Zenith gained only N0.65 and closed at N25.15

ositadima1:
estimated fair value

Thanks, even simpler than the PE route I was imagining as both have the same denominator of EPS. It's a concept of high value accretive stance if I pick up @OGG's finance vocabulary

ositadima1:
Here are some stocks, their fair values, and their divergence from fair value (VPD). I used 2022 reports as my source. PE was as of yesterday. You can see that I sorted them in order of rising PE.

I feel and like this VPD thing and must have been using it intuitively in stock selection without knowing that I was using the concept. On your picture was the VPD calculated based on your estimated fair value PE dividend by current market PE ?

yMcy56:
The kind vex wey GT dey vex ehnnnn....
Now @26.10......Up with +N1....

GT is now forcing ZENITH to move .....

MANSARD: Sighted @2.73......this one go still touch 3 las las.

Cornerstone: Na +N1 stock.... We go see how it will go.

If PFIs should even come, they'll be found in the likes of GT and other solid stocks....

It is now paining me that I missed loading GTCO at about N18 while waiting for a price of N17 when I had the funds to buy around last quarter of last year. Being too greedy in search of lower prices sometimes has negative risks and painful consequences of getting nadding

2023H2 may be good for the NSE with these kind of headlines. Has volumes increased compared to similar periods in prior years?. Only a quick check can confirm this.

Yoast:
Some people just expect prices to continue hovering around the same range for eternity. If you check Zenith and GTB, you'll notice that prices are still around 2018 range. And some people expect this to continue in 2023, and for how long? There will come a time when these prices will correct for inflation and naira devaluation. Perhaps 2023 s the year. We're watching

Prices also need to correct for improvement in the underlying assets. BVPS and EPS have been growing while prices have not trended in the same direction in the last five years thereby increasing the VPD. (@onegentleguy, I hope I used VPD correctly )

ositadima1:
Says the guy who spends most of his time on NSEMPA threads dropping one-liners.

So, according to you, Access Bank just woke up one day and decided to invest millions of dollars in a project to catch clout?

I bet you didn't read where Access Bank clearly mentioned that this was some form of solution for some Francophone African countries where it is currently present.

Great. So that will facilitate correspondence operations and international transaction ops.

Agbalowomeri:
Still won't generate value Lol. Just dey gather inefficient assets everywhere

They must have other objectives for acquiring these assets apart from immediate profit. On the bright side it can facilitate correspondence operations and international transaction ops. How beneficial this I don't know. On the dark side, it should facilitate laundering ops I guess. Sadly, some big international businesses have their dark sides.

GreatEko:
2,063,484,991 units

Ah Nah billion. Better then

onegentleguy:
I guess you meant to say over 2 billion.
...it's actually 2,063,484,991 units @ N3.12 to be precise.
By the way, the said relation is Sir TE's wife, Dr. Awele Elumelu.

It is well

Ah Nah Billion. Better then.
And Nah Madam Buy am. Much Much Better Then

Good to see relatives of Tony loading up Transcorp shares. Here a relative is reported to have bought 2million shares at N3.12 earlier this month.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Executed_Insider_Dealing_Notification_-_Dr._Awele_Elumelu_(_12th_May_23).pdf

emmanuelewumi:
GTB share capitalization history


1 for 4 2002

1 for 5 2003

1 for 3 2004

Public offer 2005

1 for 3 2006

1 for 4 2007

1 for 10 2008

1 for 4 2008

1 for 4 2009


1 for 4 2010.



Bonus was issued twice in 2008, when they moved their financial year from March to December.



Unfortunately they have stopped issuing bonus shares to shareholders

GT has tried over the years. Their GDR issued in 2007 now yields after tax deduction a dividend yield of 21% based on total dividend for year 2022. This is factoring all the bonusses issued. That is just purely based on invested capital. I think issuing or not issuing bonus has no fundamental benefit. But just a deceptive feeling of having more numbers of shares which may or may not translate to increased returns. The best they can do is just to remain sound, like not loosing investors money like some banks did after all the PO rounds.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38385_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-_CORPORATE_ACTION_2022FY_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2023.pdf

Fidelity will be paying 40kobo dividend
Qualification Date: 12May2023
Payment Date: 23May2023

With the interim dividend of 10kobo already paid in September last year, this brings total dividend from Fidelity to 50Kobo

First Bank should be ashamed of itself if it pays 50 Kobo or less. Last year First Bank came to the level of Fidelity by only paying 35Kobo as full year dividend.

vacanci:
Not lower than Morgan

Exact numbers will be better to know how far out.

Apart from costs, IBTC web trading platform does not give a good view of current bids, offers and their sizes like FSDH does. So even when placing a trade through IBTC I usually log into FSDH eTrade to give me a feel of that day's (time) bid and offers. A negative for IBTC.

locodemy:
Pls who owns Atlas cititrader.I want to know more about them.
Do you also know if stanbic ibtc stock broker is good.

Stanbic IBTC is good. I find their trading fees lower than other brokers I use.

BabsO2:
Where can one monitor this off market trade information ?

Possible the deal was real as that's a high volume. Many doing such high trades - that is the buyer and the seller - could have various motivations. Such deals are not impossible.

Looking at the daily price list and market wrap up from Stanbic IBTC sent to my email, I noticed the additional columns I have not been looking at contains information on off Market Volume and value

Today 4th of May 2023, Transcorp recorded an off Market volume of 0.5billion units at a price of N1.265b. That is at an average price of N2.53 for the off market trade. Meanwhile Todays opening price was N 2.29 and closing price was N 2.15

emmanuelewumi:
A businessman can acquire more assets for his business within a year by carefully spending less than what the business earned, yet could not declare profit for the year

The hidden cost of depreciation can account for that .

emmanuelewumi:
I have seen companies that didn't make profit, whose equity increased at the end of the year

WIth naira depreciation, a company's physical assets will most likely appreciate. And revalued, the equity will increase even though no profit was made.

Agricultural assets can also be revalued upwards when plants grow and mature. Like happened with PRESCO and OKOMU.

onegentleguy:
Refer to the post/guide above if you use Morgancapital Securities.

I really do not know if other firms have that feature in their user interface. ...but there's also a possibility they have it. You just need to find out.

Regards

Okay thanks. Looks like it's an adhoc reporting and not something one can see on the NGX website. Let me search the NGX website and look out on broker sites.

ositadima1:
If a company made zero profit after tax and purchased property and equipment from its cash, would the equity remain same?

Should d reduction in cash account cancel out the increase in property and equipment account?

Off course assuming there is no depreciation in the property & equipment at the report date. Plus assuming there are no costs associated with the purchase that are significant and transient, like cost of transportation.

mendes911:
Do you still truly believe this off market trade details? Why would this BUYER pay N3.12 for units that were readily available at a discounted price on the floor? Does it add up? That's why I said it's never what it seems with these cowboys!

Where can one monitor this off market trade information ?

Possible the deal was real as that's a high volume. Many doing such high trades - that is the buyer and the seller - could have various motivations. Such deals are not impossible.

Streetinvestor2:
The corruption must go round. My believe is thr is a big masquerade standing behind Tony.You think it was just Tony that made otedola back out of transcorp. Ote went into transcorp because of the power business of transcorp. Power sector is the next big thing in naija and the wolves are taking position via any means necessary. E go shock you when Tony is nominated as the next cbn oga .Transcorp will still hit above #3.00 soon.I have taken my usual one bottle of hero stout, lol

Legend stout is my own favorite. I can feel you on this Transcorp stuff.

onegentleguy:
Yet another OFF MARKET deal in TRANSCORP.

A total of 131,897,297 units of TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION PLC were done as OFF MARKET trade today May 2, 2023 at N3.12 in one deal.

The transaction was a negotiated deal with UNITED CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED as BUYER and APT SECURITIES & FUNDS LTD as SELLER.



It is well

Thanks for this information. I looked at todays stock market results and saw that Transcorp only traded 2,356,409 units. So these off market trades are not reflected in the days trading results. Please where can one find off market trading results ?

emmanuelewumi:
Shareholders holdings represented by Stanbic IBTC Nominees is the biggest on NGX, I can't understand why they can't get proxies from the shareholders they represent to challenge some of the anomalies in corporate Nigeria

Interesting discussions.

There is still money to be made in the NSE as is. The last time I looked at FPI holdings there was a marginal increase in UBA holdings last year.

Pray some challenges rise up and be successful in increasing shareholder value and that these fat cats will also on their own heed the voice of wisdom and create more shareholder value.

unite4real:
There are certain amount of money that move between investors that will be flagged if it does not conform to the corporate disclosures

Is this followed through in Nigeria. From the market price deal to negotiated price of x deal on Transcorp, looks like it's not followed through in Nigeria.

Agbalowomeri:
They all have where they are chopping the company dry. Declaring good profit or dividend is not their priority

So retail investors should focus more on 1. Understanding the business environment
2. Analysis of financial statements and company profits
3. Reliability and quality of management to deliver shareholder values (i.e. EPS growth, Dividend growth and SHF growth)

For these 3, I think Transcorp is ok for now. What we need to watch out for is undue greed of management. And I think the only analysis that can help spot that revolve around analysis of expenses.

This is not a buy recommendation but thoughts on DD.

True men of God don't run after mammon

emmanuelewumi:
Dangote sef still dey find more money, men of God still dey find more money. Those are what make us normal