₦airaland Forum

BabsO2:
I suspect over this year or coming year, the USD dollar may have to loose value (10 to 20%) with respect to international currencies. I feel the dollar needs to loose value further to the Yuan to make American products compete more with Chinese ones. And boost Made in America products. A very difficult journey that needs to be embarked on. As I have a feeling the dollar is over-valued, if the currency valuation is to be backed by US production resources and outputs. Perhaps a reason why the US under Biden is now ready to produce Oil and Gas from Alaska. As real (and or more) American products need to be brought on stream. Apart from the dollar likely being over-valued, US equities are over priced based on price earnings (perhaps I need to verify this on google)

Is the S&P overvalued?
It has come down from a high of 38 at the end of 2021, but its range throughout much of the 2000s and 2010s was generally between 20 and 28, so it may indicate that the S&P 500 is still overvalued. Thus, an overvalued S&P 500 is often an indicator that we could still see a drop in 2023.10 Feb 2023
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/up-7-in-2023-is-it-safe-to-invest-in-the-sp-500-right-now

RabbiDoracle:
8th March Wednesday, US SEC calls Credit Suisse to delay result.

8th March Wednesday, Silvergate Bank announced voluntary liquidation.

10th March Friday, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.

12th March Sunday, Signature Bank taken over by US banking regulators.

Something isn't right. There seems to be global scheming going on to douse the real thing.

I suspect over this year or coming year, the USD dollar may have to loose value (10 to 20%) with respect to international currencies. I feel the dollar needs to loose value further to the Yuan to make American products compete more with Chinese ones. And boost Made in America products. A very difficult journey that needs to be embarked on. As I have a feeling the dollar is over-valued, if the currency valuation is to be backed by US production resources and outputs. Perhaps a reason why the US under Biden is now ready to produce Oil and Gas from Alaska. As real (and or more) American products need to be brought on stream. Apart from the dollar likely being over-valued, US equities are over priced based on price earnings (perhaps I need to verify this on google)

Nigeria records first foreign portfolio surplus in five years – The Nation

Nigeria’s foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) status has witnessed a major turnaround with yearly inflows outweighing outflows for the first time in five years. Latest annual trading data on FPI showed that foreign investors bought more Nigerian stocks than they sold last year, reversing the negative trend that started in 2018. https://thenationonlineng.net/nigeria-records-first-foreign-portfolio-surplus-in-five-years/

Will this trend continue into 2023 ? Likely. Based on the point that Nigeria still remain a growth area if security issues can be resolved amongst other pressing issues. Plus Nigerian assets are currently grossly under priced compared to US assets. The likelihood or otherwise will be determined by unfolding events up to end of May and how June kicks-off .

ABSA sets aside $149m against Ghana debt. How much are Nigerian banks exposed, how much will they be setting aside ? Most likely not too significant compared to their total assets.

STOjo:
Transcorp volume is an issue. It is always difficult for it to move.

I don't think the bigger issue is the volume available for trading. But to uncertainty - if the current growth in earnings will persist. And the issue of poor dividend payout persisting, perhaps for the next decade.

essentialone:
Transcorp Plc, just seriously fluctuating its price up and down. What's happening on it ooo?

Plenty offers have showed up. Perhaps another downward journey to start

BabsO2:
It seems his work permit has not been revoked based on this Seplat letter to the NSE https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37782_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC-CORPORATE_ANNOUNCEMENT_BY_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC.___CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2023.pdf

This SEPLAT letter above, is at variance with the news records still going on. https://coronationregistrars.us7.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f791838b63f865dfbb90ef450&id=d51ee78885&e=6e7b848a90

“It is too late to begin to claim that the allegations were false when Brown snubbed invitations by the Ministry. Can a Nigerian resident in the UK do the same to the UK authorities? Nigeria is a nation guided by laws. Seplat and Brown are not above the Law. They should obey before they complain....

Why is Transcorp jumping today. Is it due to this visit published yesterday https://www.nairaland.com/7602515/tony-elumelu-calls-tinubu-last. Or due to good results to be published shortly or the stock doing its normal up and down. But the demand today is unusually high.

Tony introduced Transcorp CEO and noted she asked him two questions at the NESG engagement

comatekeke:
The Minister of Interior, Abuja has revoked the Work Permit, Visa and Residence Permit of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Seplat Energy Plc, Mr. Roger Brown, over allegations of racism, favouring of foreign workers and discrimination against Nigerian employees levelled against him by employees of the company.

Seplat always involved in controversies everytime

It seems his work permit has not been revoked based on this Seplat letter to the NSE https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37782_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC-CORPORATE_ANNOUNCEMENT_BY_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC.___CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2023.pdf

DeRuggedProf:
NGX Insiders never finish using the info naw. Didn't you see the shaku wey the stock dey dance since Wednesday?
I just wish there was a way investors will be blind copied for all disclosures going to NGX.
Cant you see they we're loading disclosures of insider purchases of ETI this year with last year's dates?
Information asymmetry is very high on NGX...

The NGX site is even showing multiple uploads of the same reports this evening. Looks like they have some glitches also. Their glitches may or may not be the cause for Transcorp AR delay

Transcorp had it's meeting last Friday that approved it's AR and planned to issue it by 1st of May latest. What's holding back the publication. A change in direction ? What change(s) ?

Heishere:
bond market seems to be inversely proportional to stock market

The article refers to Naija $ bonds that they've been bearish on for a while. Not Naira bonds. Will be good to know the proportionality of FX bonds to local equities. Most likely more of a direct proportionality than inverse.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/morgan-stanley-turns-bullish-nigeria-bonds-after-election-2023-03-02/

The bullishness will extend to stockmarket sooner or later.

Not investment advice. Do your DD.

,,

currentprice:
UBA and Access bank and many more are good stock bedsheet can waste time on not stock like interbrew.

ROE over 30% @ year end

Please what is the sheet saying about UBA. Access has gapped it a little. Access says it is reviewing impact of Ghana sovereign default on its accounts. Most Likely UBA will get some impact from Ghana too.

Hogwarthtrades:
Hey @OBAGADAFFI @yMcy56
Go through links of Annual reports below for estimate holding of Transcorp plc in its energy (oil exploration) , hospitality (transcorp hotel),etc sectors.
I.2022 annual report page 120 https://transcorpgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2022-ANNUAL-REPORT-AND-FINANCIAL-STATEMENTS.pdf you will see its vested interest in all its subsidiaries
II.2020 annual report [url] https://transcorpgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Transcorp-2020-Annual-Report.pdf[/url] page 92-93 same thing.
III. This is my bias/conviction speaking, take with a boatload of salt. Love this stock, hoping in the next 5 years ,I can continually increase my position to at least 7-8 figures holding for long term (at least a decade aka by the end of 2 terms of any govt. in power) for growth and dividend . It's has been and still is undervalued, outstanding shares is a blessing and a slight challenge depends on wht lens you see it from.It will probably be for another 5 years at this rate. Slow yet steady growth in the horizon of all sectors it is invested in.

Hope this age like wine not milk

I like the way their CEO - Owen Omogiafo, posed questions to the presidential aspirants at the NESG (Nigerian Economic Summit Group) engagements. Transcorp quarterly numbers are trending up nicely. I forecast the EPS for shareholders will be about 41 kobo. That is a PE of 3 at current market price. I don't expect them to pay much dividend. They paid 2 kobo last year out of the 34 kobo EPS last year. Thus this year may just be 3 kobo they will declare. As their current liabilities (used to acquire solid assets) is very high and they need to conserve money to pay this down. Their full year number should be out this week or early next week as Management approve the results this week.

I hope it ages like fine wine and not milk too

Redoil:
be patient it will surely come dowm to 7.50

What makes you sure ?
It will surely come to that level post dividends if the prices doesn't rise further before dividend ex date. Especially if the dividends stay flat at 80 kobo.

And can go even further down if the results are not so good or if the dividends go further down or if there are issues with the elections. Aside from any of these the prices will go up. And no one is sure of the direction it will take

lancee:
Be like say na mini bull or burundi wan get started ?

It's local value investors and Market Makers at work. Plus the few FPI's left no more pulling the sell trigger

lancee:
owo dee for Agba money growing like grass ...I was waiting for gtb @ 12

Waited for the FPI's pulling it down back to N17.6 and missed this current gains

Why did UBA start the first trading day of 2023 with a big sprint? Jumping from N7.6 to close today at N8.3 ! A jump of 9.2%

Maybe Mr Market is just remembering to price in expected dividend to be paid by April of 80 kobo or 100 kobo sef

ositadima1:
These are a few ways smart countries reduce their debt burden:

Increase economic growth: One way to generate more value is to stimulate economic growth, which can be done through measures such as investing in infrastructure, education, and research and development. A growing economy can increase tax revenues and make it easier for a country to pay off its debts.

Export more: Another way to generate more value is to increase exports, which can be done by promoting domestic industries or by negotiating trade deals with other countries. Exporting goods and services can bring in foreign currency, which can be used to pay off debts.

Attract foreign investment: Attracting foreign investment can also be a way to generate more value. Foreign investors may be attracted to a country with a stable political and economic environment, a skilled workforce, and a favorable business climate.

Increase productivity: Improving productivity, or the amount of output produced per unit of input, can also help a country generate more value. This can be done through measures such as investing in technology and training workers.

Nice and sharp bolded points. Looks like China used a similar script to pull itself out of poverty.

RabbiDoracle:
BRICS didn't vote against it, they voted for it. Even Nigeria voted for it.

It is about "A new international economic order".

https://press.un.org/en/2022/ga12482.doc.htm

Excerpts from the attached

The Assembly adopted the resolution “Towards a New International Economic Order” by a recorded vote of 123 in favour to 50 against with 1 abstention (Türkiye). By its terms, the Assembly expressed concern over the increasing debt vulnerabilities of developing countries, the net negative capital flows from those countries, the fluctuation of exchange rates and the tightening of global financial conditions, and in this regard stressed the need to explore the means and instruments needed to achieve debt sustainability and the measures necessary to reduce the indebtedness of developing States.

You can read more from the UN link or you can visit the UN site. Attached is the map of countries showing the voting pattern. This is concerning in my opinion and shows level of dissatisfaction amongst the 80%.

Just watch how the bonds of developed markets will trade.

Thanks for the clarification.
I can see two big ticket items from this short brief.

1. Debt sustainability issues of some developing nations
2. Capital Outflows from some developing nations

Number 1 looks like a problem developing nations really need to address by themselves. Why do they accumulate unsustainable debt. Looks like those in power in developing nations don't really have the interest of their nations. Perhaps a simplistic perception as even the USA debt also looks unsustainable. But the US debt can be managed by printing money. While the developing nations debt can only be managed by mortgaging resources. Thereby compounding their future Capital Outflows. Globally it will be ideal debts are forced to be only usable for growth activities (investments) that can return value (future cashflow streams in the borrowed currency or in a strong internationally traded currency) and not for consumption purposes that passes the burden of repayment to the coming generation.

RabbiDoracle:
United Nations General Assembly voting : Towards a new international economic order

Voted for : 123

Voted against : 50

Abstained: 1

Check out the split in the votes at the UNGA meeting. The emerging world vs the developed world. The 85% population vs the 15% population.

Lots of countries seem very tired of the current economic order.

Please what is the vote about in very simple terms. I can See BRICS voted against it.

Agbalowomeri:
As if someone else is the CBN governor throughout the period.
He kept mum for eight years na now cock crow

He has been alerting about the decline since long and been doing his best to execute existing CBN policies for fx earning through export drive and import substitution. And shouted earlier this year that NNPC is remitting nadding o. And there was a little back and forth from NNPC. Now the new NNPC has kuku come out saying their new way now is not to credit CBN reserves but keep everything. And if they declare a profit it will still not go to CBN reserves but I think finance ministry. So Emefiele cannot keep mum with this new twist. He needs to start shouting so that people go hear.

PRESCO was to give interim dividend on Friday 25th November. It has not dropped. What happened.

yMcy56:
ZENITH: Sighted @22.75 as at now........Up with +65k

GTCO: Sluggish earlier, traded as low as 19.95..........but gradually back to 20.40 yesterday's closing price as at now.........
*Still struggling*

DANGCEM: Full bid @262.30......Up with +N23.80...
Share buy-back effect I think......
UCAP, ACCESS, UBA, Transcorp........mvmt up... slow and steady....

The bear fought the strong bull in GTCO to a stand still with 1-1 goalless draw initially. With the bear scoring the first goal. But the strong bull resisted and equalized before the closing bell today Then it did a final push to lead with a tiny 10 kobo gain over yesterday

Make the bear gather strength joor with the support of some election bears and push GTCO back to N18 before other bulls wake up and decide to push the price up .

Agbalowomeri:
The bull behind this look forceful
I am not expecting any shedding till the next resistance

Right now, for GTCO that forceful bull has yielded (lost 40Kobo) out of the big forceful gain of yesterday. Price dropped from N20.40 to N20.00

But the bull is at standstill with the other banks. Match never finish for today. Maybe the bull will stand up to resist this bashing and win the day

Key interest rate raised today to 16.5% by the CBN

pluto09:
I want to believe the person selling GTB earlier is no more selling.
The sell pressure has reduced for a while.

Those are the real drivers. And they are not too predictable. If they do not show up again the technical analysis will start speaking from another mouth.

Agbalowomeri:
GTCO inverted hammer today
Going by the books, it should start shedding some weight from tomorrow

Great! Let us see how soon it can get to 18 and below again.

thesilentone:
It is true but they have been doing this for well over a year, precisely Nov 2020

That must be so, for the price to drop all the way from above N30. I looked up what their holdings were some months apart this year and I saw they pulled out a chunk. They have been pulling out from our banks for a long time. I can recall seeing up to 10% total holdings a decade or so ago. Now FBNH is about 1% and the rest are like 3% to 4%.

thesilentone:
Typical move by grandfather Warren.

Margin of safety is a quality move.

Some foreign fund managers seem currently bent on exiting or reducing their Naija GTCO positions. A lot has been disposed in the last couple of months.