₦airaland Forum

A normal man's self actualization needs on the higher level goes beyond bread and butter. Bread and butter is at the lower hierarchy. Hope Tony has outgrown that lower hierarchy.

emmanuelewumi:
Tony indication of value is different from your own indication of value.


Do you have companies that get contract from Transcorp?

At that. It's still an indication of value. I guess a possibility (& risk for common shareholders) is excessive greed from Tony, that may make common shareholders not benefit on the long run. And another likelihood is Tony will manage the business well as his legacy (self actualization instincts) and benefit common shareholders on the long run.

emmanuelewumi:
Tony can afford to pay any price in order to have control of Transcorp. With control, you don't capital appreciation of stock, you may not need dividends, control brings a lot of money.

Lion123:
Otedola sold his shares at N12 so I take it that is the true value of Tranacorp shares if not for Tony's wickedness.

That is my thought on fair price

OBAGADAFFI:
He sold @ 12

That's an assessment of a fair price for Transcorp if Tony paid that much. That means it may not be a bad thing to hold on and not sell if one currently has the shares.

jideflash:
i dey check my phone every 2 mins, i never see alert o.

yMcy56:
Otedola na confirmed cowboy!

Bought 6.3% @ $70 million and sold @$32.5Billion?

We wait for the next news.........another round may be loading......

The whole story looks one kind. Why will Tony buy off ote$ at a premium ? If true, it could mean Transcorp is much more valuable than what Mr Market is pricing it and Tony being an insider knows this and doesn't want a co driver make sand sand enter join.

You are right. UBA has no excuse for not increasing dividends based on CAR. It's First Bank that is building CAR by not paying too much dividends. Below is a nice picture for 2021 H1 from Stanbic IBTC. Cannot find the one they issued last year.

robobo:
The last full year result already put CAR above 25 which is comfortably above minimum regulatory of 15 , so it is not an excuse. UBA should increase the dividend payout. Na wetin shareholder eat (dividend) for them belle matter most to them

Lion123:
TOE doesn't really send anybody tbh. All that Foundation/Africapitalism ish is strictly to boost his ego. I like the guy sha.

I hear there is a way it can reduce tax liabilities. Achieve double result with one strike.

robobo:
.

No mind TOE. He dey do oversabi. How can he be paying 21% of EPS (1.1 paid out of 4.84) and be expecting proper valuation of UBA shares and without proper valuation be opening himsef up for a possible hostile takeover ( as currently going on in his Transcorp). Just because he don chop belleful before d result is declared, he is not mindful whether other people sef chop. No be wickedness be dat.

Because UBA deposit liabilities, has been growing as fast or faster that SHF, perhaps UBA is trying to improve its CAR organically. FBNH has similar challenge / strategy to boost CAR sufficiently above the minimum required by CBN. As a result of this it's not advisable to dispense too much dividend as doing so, reduces the rate at which SHF grows. Access raised a special instrument to boost its
Tier 1 capital a couple of years ago. This has boosted its CAR hence can dispense more dividends. Will need to look through the annual report presentations to pick out the CAR. Or last year Stanbic-IBTC analysis display of CAR if I can get it.

onegentleguy:
You are doing well.

CGPR- Cash Generating Power Ratio
CCC- Cash Conversion Circle
EFIR- External Financing Index Ratio
etc

I believe I've highlighted most of these acronyms and even more on many occasions in time past.

Regards

You left this out again. I think Google finally helped me out for the meaning.
VPD - Value Price Divergence (Not anything to do with Vapour Pressure. Though Google had more on Vapour Pressure Deficit on my initial searches. Perhaps it thought I was doing a Physics search )

VPD - Value Price Divergence
Looks like language of top (Technical and perhaps Fundamental) analysts. My layman understanding is it is helpful in quantifying how far off asset is over priced or under priced.

Amongst the load of info. This is enough for me for now.
Summary
Divergence compares the patterns between the price of an asset and a technical indicator. It is most apparent when the asset price is moving in the opposite direction of what the technical indicator states.
Positive divergence signals potential positive uptrend in price momentum, which can be bullish. Negative divergence signals potential slowdowns and an increase in downtrends in price momentum, which can be bearish.
As divergence is present in only some price reversals, it should not be the sole tool in making trading decisions – it is important to use a collection of tools to substantiate one’s decision.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/capital-markets/divergence/

onegentleguy:
Most folks are always in a hurry to make bold assertions from a coys SPL.
Again, look beyond the SPL and take a deep dive into the SCF and BS.

Only if you saw the massive/triple digit growth accross key VPD including but not limited to the coys NCP, FCFE, CCC, CGPR, FCF and JPBG
with the 1st 2 determinant printing a 107% and 297% positive line.
For a company operating in a broadly capital intensive sector, TRANSCORP managed to achieve all this with just 4% increase in NDP from lower EFIR (debt stance) despite the jump in capital allocation... yet even lower CBR.

Hear this bro;
TRANSCORP did well at delivering value!

The days of <N1 TRANSCORP may we'll be behind us!
Perhaps there's something Sir Tony and FO need to tell us.

It is well

See VPD coming in again. Let me go Google to find out wetin be this VPD

Lion123:
Transcorp unaudited Q1 is out

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38240_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2023.pdf

This bad Q1 result can slow the price climb . Topline Revenue dropped instead of the increase of prior quarters, while expenses increased. Leading to bottom line profit cut in half. Room for those acquiring major stakes to ramp up more shares cheaply or what. Let's see what Mr Market will do.

Zagee:

Are you by chance related to an OIIP industry?This your answer ehn..lol

Which one is OIIP again. Aah

onegentleguy:
I have highlighted many of these acronyms in time past.
These ones are even much more popular.

MoS- Margin of safety
RRM- Risk-reward margin
SPL- Statement of profit & loss
SCF- Statement of cash flow
BS- Balance sheet

Btw, I am also a learner like you... and quite possibly, an even lesser mortal.

Regards

What of VPD ? Vapor Pressure Density of some kind of energy or money ?

yMcy56:
Not true.
UBA Nominees is still the single largest shareholder with 9.25% shareholding while Femi Otedola is the 2nd (with 5.52%) as at today......
Unless he increases his shareholding.....
See the attached....

With all the deliberations here not clear what the actual status is. As Owen the President of Transcorp said, which I agree with her. It's a good thing seeing investors showing interest in Transcorp.

If FPI never begin come, an LPI has come as him dey see the goldmine here.

debeey87:
Good result but could have been better if other expenses were kept in check. The other expenses part off me Sha. In a quarter where there was no cash, they still spent more on securing and handling of cash. I

If quarterly cash transactions is looked at closely, the currency change taking place in January, naturally meant a lot of old money was returned and the given new ones by CBN dispatched to customers. This need to be handled. And would have resulted in a spike in activities in 2023Q1 with respect to cash handling than other quarters like 2022 Q1 to Q3.

Banks had to work extra at weekends in 2023Q1 to handle this cash movements.

perfectgen:
I am smiling at this Transcorp jackpot for some of you but we the long timers that came in during IPO around Ndi Okereke's time still have our haircut yet to grow back.
I just hope that it will keep picking up; maybe we can make our investment capitals back

Subscribed to the high priced IPO also. It was painful seeing the price drop subsequently. Despite some hype floating around that time.

Have averaged down at various times. And took profit a little, at a time when some I bought at a lower price went up. Still bought some last quarter.

OBAGADAFFI:
Tony Owns more shares in Transcorp through Heirs Holdings

Thanks I thought as much, that Tony should have more Transcorp than Femi.

I picked from newswirengr that info of Femi owning more shares in Transcorp.
https://newswirengr.com/2023/04/12/femi-otedola-overtakes-tony-elumelu-to-become-transcorps-largest-shareholder/

yMcy56:
Femi Otedola becomes the 2nd largest shareholder in Transcorp Plc.

https://nairametrics.com/2023/04/12/breaking-femi-otedola-acquires-5-52-of-transcorp-plc/

** 5.52% translates to around 2.24B units.......the remaining OS/Free float is still on the high side sha.....will just keep eye on it**

What are these two men Otedola-Elumelu up to with Femi reportedly currently owning more Transcorp shares than Tony ?

Olaide1295:
I’ve been adding on more commercial papers than stocks to my portfolio recently.
Im wondering, has anyone ever done a bond vs stock result comparison for their portfolio over a period of say 10-15 years of the NSE.
Which performed better?
Equities like Zenith, Ucap etc yields are about 12-13% now. Bonds & Commercial papers are between 13 - 16%.
Which is better?

Some stocks return more than bonds, while some don't. And some stocks even dissappear completely. Not a straight answer that one will be better than the other.

Justcul:
Leave Agba. he was waiting for GTBank at 12 when I was shouting buy last October

I bought GTbank N16.95, I think some heavy weight was offloading at the time..

That GTCO price was a bargain. It's a stock loved by investors. It was most likely an FPI pulling out with no FPI ready to pick it, but local bargain hunters

ositadima1:
Some stocks I checked and my estimated fair values:
Sterlnbank - #2.6
Fidelitybk - #6.5 **slightly overvalued
FCMB - #6.3
Zenithbank - #28.5 **slightly overvalued
Vitafoam - #36
Ucap - #16
Nahco - #16.5
Wapco - #33
Dangsugar- #45

With d exception of a few most of these stocks distributed less than half thier EPS as dividends, keeping yield low.

On this list. It's only WAPCO that's on my radar.

ositadima1:
I have observed that an increase in the dividend payout ratio usually leads to a positive and significant movement in stock prices. So, estimating favourable fair value for stocks also requires a catalyst such as an increased dividend payout ratio. To justify my thinking, yields above 14% may occasionally appear, but they tend not to last long.

Consider UBA, which has an EPS of #4.8 and a payout ratio of below 20% at #0.9. It is almost clear why its price is not moving in tandem with its performance. After adjusting for risks, UBA should be valued at not less than #20, similar to ZENITHBANK and GTCO.

This undervaluation is not unique to UBA, as there are other stocks experiencing the same issue.

Waiting for a good increase in payout ratio before buying an undervalued stock may be a sound strategy while the fund is earning better returns else where. In the case of UBA, it appears that the stock will remain around its current value until the company raises its payout ratio.

What other stocks do you see as under valued ?

emmanuelewumi:
You are doing well, I have read all the books you listed except "the art of company valuation".


You can read up on Peter Lynch books

Beating the street

One up on Wall Street.



You can ask for explanations on what you have challenges with on NSEMPA.

One up on wall street looks good and its even available for free on the web in PDF
https://yourknowledgedigest.files./2020/04/one-up-on-wall-street.pdf

.

Access raising tier one capital through financial instruments. One needs to watch how this plays out. Is it a good approach or bad one ? Guess it depends on many factors. And principally, that should be how fast its customers deposit rise and how the additional deposits from create value. I think if it's African expansion program falters this additional tier 1 capital instruments will lead to a faster erosion of shareholder funds. Just like one trading with margin and the trades go bad.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38141_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-ANNOUNCEMENT_OF_US$300_MILLION_INVESTMENT_INTO_ACCESS_BANK_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2023.pdf

RabbiDoracle:
Question :

Fidelity bank announced last year that they will be doing Private placement.

Price of this PP was not announced. When are they going to announce?

Why are they doing PP? To raise funds? What is the funds for? To support Tier 1 Capital or for working capital or both?

We wait to see.

Thanks. This explains the high valuation of Fidelity. Him no even fear, wan try reach UBA and rub shoulder with it

BabsO2:
You may be lucky to get some of the left over offers at N8 of yesterday if the sellers don't quickly cancel their sell offer. And if brokers don't quickly corner any left over for a quick buy and sell game. About 860,000 units closed on offer at N8 yesterday.

Looks like market never open.

Market has opened with nothing sold at N8. Lowest price traded on opening was N8.3 with current price at N8.6 A wind of bids has come, currently doubling offers.

leparj:
Good one.
Diving in to get more UBA shares tomorrow.
Won't buy more than N8. sha.
If it rises tomorrow, will let it be and buy lower later.

You may be lucky to get some of the left over offers at N8 of yesterday if the sellers don't quickly cancel their sell offer. And if brokers don't quickly corner any left over for a quick buy and sell game. About 860,000 units closed on offer at N8 yesterday.

Looks like market never open.

robobo:
Oga Oracle

i have checked the Key Audit matters and i cant deduce anything untowards or should be of concern in it. it only mentioned the total loan size of UBA and the impairment figure which is available in the AFS and also the fact that the auditors tested the models and parameters used to arrive at the impairment figure, which is normal for statutory audits. yes i understand your concern that UBA impairment is quite low compared to peers (Zenith / ETI) but the concern here is the exposure to Ghana sovereign bond and not credit in itself. So if UBA is not as exposed to GoG as its peers it is normal that it would also be less impacted by the haircut arising from GoG bonds. or what do you think? would appreciate your further discussion on the issue

I was thinking perhaps UBA had less exposure to Ghana because, it maybe had more exposure to funding Transcorp and didn't have much to diversify into Ghana sovereign bonds as a result. NB: Just a thought, not based on any cross-checked information. But penciled down to find out more info

leparj:
What's the qualification and payment dates?

Qualification date 2 weeks time as per minimum regulation that 14th April. And Payment date 27th April. UBA no wan waste time like Zenith .

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37991_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-CORPORATE_ACTION_ANNOUCEMENT_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2023.pdf

UBA has landed with a fantastic result. Or am I seeing double. PE looks like slightly less than 2. Final Dividend move up slightly from N0.80 to N0.90 bringing total dividend to N1.1 The market will surely push it up to a new level!!. How far up ?

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37990_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2023.pdf