₦airaland Forum

beejay1:
It haff landed o

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37945_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2023.pdf

Deferred tax hit the bottom line. Dividend jacked up from 2 kobo to 5 kobo to console shareholders. Let's see how the market will react

Streetinvestor2:
This brokers na them be chairmen for monkey hunting, lol

Now Transcorp shot up to N1.5 today with a breeze of demand nearly x10 of offers. The brokers will recommend it perhaps as a buy when it reaches N2 or 3 Don't blame them, perhaps they need more confidence in the audited results perhaps over a 3 to 5 year period before they can recommend it as a BUY

Princkez:
Ucap dividend landed...

That's really fast and good of UCAP. Makes investing in stocks beautiful as it's one money that is working for one .

Unlike useless stocks/managers that destroy value/money.

Mfunkynation:
My 2023 Shares investment Pledge:
Every kobo I received from a particular STOCK as DIVIDENDS goes back to INCREASE my holding in the stock.
I don't know about you!

That is DRIP - Dividend Re-Investment Plan
I think Stanbic has such election possible for the Stanbic IBTC dividends

https://dailytrust.com/oil-production-rises-to-1-7m-bpd-fg/ This should be supportive to the economy and NSE
The Minister of Defence, Major General Bashir Magashi has said the onslaught launched against crude oil theft by the Nigerian Navy and other sister security agencies led to increased oil production of 1.7m bpd a step further from what was obtained in July 2022.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/03/budget-2023-fears-as-oil-price-drops-3-to-73-87-per-barrel-2/ This counters any support from higher oil prices but good for the economy in that diesel & petrol prices will not be excessively high
There were fears, weekend, as the price of Nigeria’s premium oil grade, Bonny Light, dropped to $73.87 per barrel, from $76.37, recorded last week, indicating a fall of three per cent. The Federal Government had benchmarked the 2023 budget at $75 per barrel and 1.8 million barrels per day, bpd, including condensate, which Nigeria has the capacity to produce between 300,000 – 400,000 barrels per day, bpd.

To those looking for stock recommendations, different brokers issue theirs. IBTC Stockbrokers have three banks on their buy recommendation list with a bullish target price appreciation of 50%. Due diligence is required to follow these brokers as they could be unduly bullish or bearish sometimes. Now them no put Transcorp. Perhaps it's when the price reaches N2 or 3 that they will be bullish to recommend it

RabbiDoracle:
Attached are the Chinese indexes (Shangai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong). These don't look bullish.

From these current levels, these Chinese indexes need to drop at least 45% to attract rapid interest. And that is towards 2008 low.

Below is the expectation for China.
Quote:
Reopening to recovery: Goldman Sachs sees China stocks surging as much as 24% by end of 2023. “We believe the principal theme in the stock market will gradually shift from reopening to recovery,” Goldman Sachs said in a Monday note. As of Friday's close, the MSCI China index had lost about 8% since its Jan.20 Feb 2023
Unquote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/20/goldman-sachs-sees-china-stocks-surging-by-end-2023.html#:~:text=China%20Markets-,Reopening%20to%20recovery%3A%20Goldman%20Sachs%20sees%20China%20stocks%20surging%20as,24%25%20by%20end%20of%202023&text=%E2%80%9CWe%20believe%20the%20principal%20theme,about%208%25%20since%20its%20Jan.

China will not follow the US bubble burst in 2023 is the consensus of most analysts.

BabsO2:
My understanding is China will not join in having a market crash like the US in 2023.

If I find the basis for the expect non bearish run in China will revert. .

Here is one of the expectations for China

Reopening to recovery: Goldman Sachs sees China stocks surging as much as 24% by end of 2023. “We believe the principal theme in the stock market will gradually shift from reopening to recovery,” Goldman Sachs said in a Monday note. As of Friday's close, the MSCI China index had lost about 8% since its Jan.20 Feb 2023

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/20/goldman-sachs-sees-china-stocks-surging-by-end-2023.html#:~:text=China%20Markets-,Reopening%20to%20recovery%3A%20Goldman%20Sachs%20sees%20China%20stocks%20surging%20as,24%25%20by%20end%20of%202023&text=%E2%80%9CWe%20believe%20the%20principal%20theme,about%208%25%20since%20its%20Jan.

RabbiDoracle:
Attached are the Chinese indexes (Shangai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong). These don't look bullish.

From these current levels, these Chinese indexes need to drop at least 45% to attract rapid interest. And that is towards 2008 low.

My understanding is China will not join in having a market crash like the US in 2023.

If I find the basis for the expect non bearish run in China will revert. .

Agbalowomeri:
Elections have been successfully held and winners declared. Why should anyone think May 29 has uncertainties?

Comforting to see the number of likes here. I have added mine . It means that line of uncertainty is ruled out ! And my recent UBA buy basis is ok.

The remaining uncertainties are what the impact of currency shortages may have on Q1 & no surprises from Q4. As the NSE awaits a bull run while the US gets a bear run this year. China is already in a bull run.

Ire O.

RabbiDoracle:
Has there been any time in a bull market where in 2 weeks period four (4) international banks collapsed?

Has there been any time in a bull market where over 200 US banks are groaning under severe bond losses and are at the risk of bank run?

Has there been any time in a bull market where large US and European banks are having massive deposit runs? Credit suisse, UBS and now Deutsche Bank.

Has there been any time in the world where all financial leaders in US and EU and the leaders of these countries where jointly saying that their banks were strong? All at the same time yesterday evening.

These are red flags occurring in western financial institutions and we should not ignore them.

In case you have forgotten, we were all invested in the market when :

March 2008 - Bear Stearns collapsed
September 2008 - Lehmann Brothers collapsed.

And we were told all was OK in Africa. Up until March 2008, everything was fine in Nigeria and in Africa, I believe. Afterwards, the rest of the event was history.

When international banks start having issues, it usually cascades rapidly. It is usually the start of bigger things to come. Lending freezes, companies start to fall and second order effects starts to arise.

If foreign banks are having these losses, what about insurance and pension companies? What about hedgefunds, educational trust funds and other wealth managers? These are the second order effects that are yet to surface.

When a ship capsizes, it takes time for the bodies to float to the surface.

I think Naija's issue i.e. risk is currently more around politics than what is happening in the US. As a lot of the FPI's have repatriated their funds in 2020/2021. And because US assets are currently over priced while NSE stocks have relatively far lower PE's.

If May 29 doesn't sail through smoothly the NSE will most likely go down because investors don't like uncertainty. Apart from that it could drag businesses and the economy downwards and show up in NSE companies recording losses in year 2023. Hence justifying the market going down if a severe political turbulence occur.

As many or is it some have said if Q2 sails through smoothly the NSE will likely become bullish. Perhaps a weak bull due to the issues you noted in US and Europe. But this US/Europe issue is not impacting China drastically. Their GDP may drop from double digits of the last decade to about 6% as projected by them. Hence oil prices may remain at current levels or even go higher as less investments poured into ramping up production. And Nigeria has recovered slightly from the very low oil prod of 2022. This will support the NSE bull.

Also, if Q2 progresses smoothly politically in Naija, there is a likelihood the small net buy seen in 2022 from FPI's will become a bigger net buy as more FPI managers try to take positions in NSE in 2023. As Nigeria remains a growth area. The snag of devaluation will however make them cautious and not be too aggressive. For local investors an easy option open to mitigate devaluation is holding quality NSE stocks that may ride the inflation in Nigeria. At least mitigate it better than cash or Naira bonds.

The impact of the CBN Naira redesign will become clear next month when companies start releasing Q1 results. Not sure if it will impact banks negatively. But will likely have no impact on companies like Transcorp, Presco etc. If it impacts banks negatively. Bank share prices will start a race downwards and seem to align with what's happening in the US. But driven by entirely different issues.

YoungBuffet:
not now, after the dividend it will go down then move up again to around 8 to 8.20 then fall back to 6.60. This is my prediction on it.

Continuing the UBA chat - A low price only comes in a flash and doesn't often last more than a day or two. It is very difficult to plan to purchase based on such target as it involves thousands of hours of monitoring prices with idle cash on hand. This is a lot of opportunity cost with respect to time. Last year the lowest price achieved was N6.55 on 6th of October. And the average price that day was N6.75. and only N 23million worth of shares was sold. And this sale didn't last beyond that day.

Weighted average price for UBA in 2020/2021/2022 were N 7.07/7.90/7.72. Since a dividend of N1.0 total is due to any one who buys right now over the next six months (with 80kobo due over the next 40 days). Buying UBA for the long term is okay at current price and will be a waste of time waiting for N6.60 that may never show up.

Buffett Says Be A Long-Term Investor:
Summary
Are you really the long-term investor that you claim to be?
Buffett’s Berkshire has held Coca-Cola for ~35 years; how old is your longest-held stock?

I know some here are traders, jijoists

I think even in Nigeria there are a couple of stocks that are worth long term investment for capital appreciation and dividends income. What stocks qualify for this and how long is our long term here - Perhaps for the next 5 years is our long term with need for quarterly and annual review if the stock is healthy. I think as of now, a couple of Banks can be placed on this Long Term Investor list. What are the others ? Some can have a Hold instead of a buy rating. For example I see Transcorp as a weak buy (Weak because of low dividend payout), PRESCO is a hold. UBA is a buy etc. And I hear from this forum UCAP is a buy, but not a fan of UCAP .

leparj:
I bought UBA early this week @N8.20 even after the SVB news broke.
Will buy more soon.
I am a long term investor and don't allow the daily noise to disturb me.
Also checking stock prices everyday is really not necessary if u are in for the long term.
Stocks will fall and rise and rise and fall.
Planning to use most of my dividend this year to increase my UBA holding.

Bought the UBA today at N8 as it was standing still at my current buy price with more offers than bids. The market offers and bids just change directions like breeze . Waiting for their results and dividend declaration and what direction the market will drive the price. I can see some predicting N6. That can only happen if underlying earnings and EPS drops.

YoungBuffet:
one thing i know is las las they will print more dollars to rescue their financial sector

They have freed searching for oil in Alaska. They will not only print money but do all it takes to grow their real GDP by producing more in America and importing less every little thing they can produce or used to produce.

Agbalowomeri:
Is it buying season?

Is there a buying season?

Stocks are sold by a seller and bought by a a buyer every trading day once there is a seller and buyer.

GANDALF1:
All these hidden stones you guys are throwing around like cowards without calling names, always remember that you are not the smartest person in the market and that the market will eventually do its thing.

Trying to prove correctness on this exchange will only ensure you go broke in the long term.

Which one be hidden stones and calling names. Cool down small and follow the thread of reply and you will see clearly that there are no hidden stones or names.

YoungBuffet:
If u can hold just hold, global issues I believe are under control, to me UBA will follow normal way of coming down after dividend. It can still do 6.60-7

And it may not do so this year. Even sometimes when lows come, before one takes advantage no one is disposing again. There will be scarcity at such low prices. Gambling on a low bus stop doesn't pay off all zee time. Mr Market can change his mind without consulting anyone at anytime as events occur.

Their results should give more clarity if the buy/sell/hold moves are good or bad or fair .

ositadima1:
As I see it, there seems to be no explanation for UCAP's sudden 24% drop within a single month, especially since the month is not even over yet. While reviewing its audited results for 2022, I noticed that its earnings before tax had increased, followed by a significant tax expense of 3.5 billion, which I assume to be a one-time occurrence. Based on my simplistic valuation, I estimate its fair value to be approximately 16 naira.

I thought someone quoted they recorded some losses in comprehensive income that shaved some value off shareholder funds (perhaps due the Ghana debt issues). Hence some of the recorded increased earnings in 2022 may be at risk in 2023.

Can see a lot of bids for UCAP right now

YoungBuffet:
Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedyUBA fearful sold it to the greedy yesterday at 7.85.

Wanted to buy more just now at N8.00 only to see it has resisted staying on that spot and currently selling at N8.1. Bought last week Friday at N8.4 with an outstanding order from Thursday that I forgot to cancel before the SVB news came in plus some other negative sentiments. At the moment right now bids outstrip offers six times. Abeg make them release the results so that we can get a little more info on what's up.

This should be helpful to Transcorp small in the coming years. How small I don't know.

FG probes theft in $1.1bn oil well – Punch
The largest oil and gas field financing transaction of about $1.1bn – Oil Mining License 17, owned by billionaire business tycoon, Tony Elumelu, is currently under investigation following the uncovering of an illegal oil bunkering facility connected to it, The PUNCH has learnt. The PUNCH gathered that the investigation was necessitated after the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps on Thursday, uncovered an illegal local refinery at Otamiri-Etche, Etche Local Government Area of Rivers State. The illegal refinery, The PUNCH gathered, steals crude from OML17 fields operated by Heirs Holding Oil and Gas Limited. In 2021, Heirs Holdings acquired 45 per cent of OML 17 from Shell Total and Eni. At the point of acquisition, the field located at the north Port Harcourt, produced just 27, 000 barrels per day, however, production rose to 40, 000 barrels per day seven months after acquisition. The PUNCH gathered that the NSCDC was able to burst.

https://punchng.com/fg-probes-theft-in-1-1bn-oil-well/

RabbiDoracle:
8th March Wednesday, US SEC calls Credit Suisse to delay result.

8th March Wednesday, Silvergate Bank announced voluntary liquidation.

10th March Friday, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.

12th March Sunday, Signature Bank taken over by US banking regulators.

Something isn't right. There seems to be global scheming going on to douse the real thing.

I think a key issue is the US market needs some correction apart from any possible dollar over valuation issue. The article below estimates the amount of correction needed in the American market. While I think the Nigerian market direction will largely be determined by how security issues amongst other pressing issues are resolved in the coming months.


The American stock market currently appears to be overvalued by 32%. In other words, it would take a 24% drop to bring the market back to its long-run equilibrium level. At the last all-time high, on November 8, 2021, the market was 82.4% overvalued https://www.estimite.com/post/is-the-us-stock-market-overvalued/#:~:text=In%20other%20words%2C%20it%20would,the%20market%20was%2091.6%25%20overvalued.

BabsO2:
I suspect over this year or coming year, the USD dollar may have to loose value (10 to 20%) with respect to international currencies. I feel the dollar needs to loose value further to the Yuan to make American products compete more with Chinese ones. And boost Made in America products. A very difficult journey that needs to be embarked on. As I have a feeling the dollar is over-valued, if the currency valuation is to be backed by US production resources and outputs. Perhaps a reason why the US under Biden is now ready to produce Oil and Gas from Alaska. As real (and or more) American products need to be brought on stream. Apart from the dollar likely being over-valued, US equities are over priced based on price earnings (perhaps I need to verify this on google)

Is the S&P overvalued?
It has come down from a high of 38 at the end of 2021, but its range throughout much of the 2000s and 2010s was generally between 20 and 28, so it may indicate that the S&P 500 is still overvalued. Thus, an overvalued S&P 500 is often an indicator that we could still see a drop in 2023.10 Feb 2023
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/up-7-in-2023-is-it-safe-to-invest-in-the-sp-500-right-now

RabbiDoracle:
8th March Wednesday, US SEC calls Credit Suisse to delay result.

8th March Wednesday, Silvergate Bank announced voluntary liquidation.

10th March Friday, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.

12th March Sunday, Signature Bank taken over by US banking regulators.

Something isn't right. There seems to be global scheming going on to douse the real thing.

I suspect over this year or coming year, the USD dollar may have to loose value (10 to 20%) with respect to international currencies. I feel the dollar needs to loose value further to the Yuan to make American products compete more with Chinese ones. And boost Made in America products. A very difficult journey that needs to be embarked on. As I have a feeling the dollar is over-valued, if the currency valuation is to be backed by US production resources and outputs. Perhaps a reason why the US under Biden is now ready to produce Oil and Gas from Alaska. As real (and or more) American products need to be brought on stream. Apart from the dollar likely being over-valued, US equities are over priced based on price earnings (perhaps I need to verify this on google)

Nigeria records first foreign portfolio surplus in five years – The Nation

Nigeria’s foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) status has witnessed a major turnaround with yearly inflows outweighing outflows for the first time in five years. Latest annual trading data on FPI showed that foreign investors bought more Nigerian stocks than they sold last year, reversing the negative trend that started in 2018. https://thenationonlineng.net/nigeria-records-first-foreign-portfolio-surplus-in-five-years/

Will this trend continue into 2023 ? Likely. Based on the point that Nigeria still remain a growth area if security issues can be resolved amongst other pressing issues. Plus Nigerian assets are currently grossly under priced compared to US assets. The likelihood or otherwise will be determined by unfolding events up to end of May and how June kicks-off .

ABSA sets aside $149m against Ghana debt. How much are Nigerian banks exposed, how much will they be setting aside ? Most likely not too significant compared to their total assets.

STOjo:
Transcorp volume is an issue. It is always difficult for it to move.

I don't think the bigger issue is the volume available for trading. But to uncertainty - if the current growth in earnings will persist. And the issue of poor dividend payout persisting, perhaps for the next decade.

essentialone:
Transcorp Plc, just seriously fluctuating its price up and down. What's happening on it ooo?

Plenty offers have showed up. Perhaps another downward journey to start

BabsO2:
It seems his work permit has not been revoked based on this Seplat letter to the NSE https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37782_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC-CORPORATE_ANNOUNCEMENT_BY_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC.___CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2023.pdf

This SEPLAT letter above, is at variance with the news records still going on. https://coronationregistrars.us7.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f791838b63f865dfbb90ef450&id=d51ee78885&e=6e7b848a90

“It is too late to begin to claim that the allegations were false when Brown snubbed invitations by the Ministry. Can a Nigerian resident in the UK do the same to the UK authorities? Nigeria is a nation guided by laws. Seplat and Brown are not above the Law. They should obey before they complain....

Why is Transcorp jumping today. Is it due to this visit published yesterday https://www.nairaland.com/7602515/tony-elumelu-calls-tinubu-last. Or due to good results to be published shortly or the stock doing its normal up and down. But the demand today is unusually high.

Tony introduced Transcorp CEO and noted she asked him two questions at the NESG engagement

comatekeke:
The Minister of Interior, Abuja has revoked the Work Permit, Visa and Residence Permit of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Seplat Energy Plc, Mr. Roger Brown, over allegations of racism, favouring of foreign workers and discrimination against Nigerian employees levelled against him by employees of the company.

Seplat always involved in controversies everytime

It seems his work permit has not been revoked based on this Seplat letter to the NSE https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37782_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC-CORPORATE_ANNOUNCEMENT_BY_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC.___CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2023.pdf

DeRuggedProf:
NGX Insiders never finish using the info naw. Didn't you see the shaku wey the stock dey dance since Wednesday?
I just wish there was a way investors will be blind copied for all disclosures going to NGX.
Cant you see they we're loading disclosures of insider purchases of ETI this year with last year's dates?
Information asymmetry is very high on NGX...

The NGX site is even showing multiple uploads of the same reports this evening. Looks like they have some glitches also. Their glitches may or may not be the cause for Transcorp AR delay