₦airaland Forum

onegentleguy:
Don't give too much consideration to that part in bold.
The agenda might be to produce an Apc flag brearer from the south but not the president.

Lots to say, but I don't want to litter this place with political discuss.

At this time, investors are more concerned with having peace and security knowing their investments are safe, than having a given name as president.
Our politicians are all the same. ...some are just a bit better than the others.

As I said before; The mkt is in accumulation mood... sideways trading is expected in the days ahead... but overall positive trend remains intact!
Any pullback at this time should only be seeing as an opportunity to strategically align with select KEY fundamentally healthy coys. (some are already in a great entry zone)
So it's a good thing you're buying now.

It is well.

Long detailed piece as usual. Thanks. Investors and Mr Market will surely react positively to things that support the words in bold.

The Northern APC governors supporting zoning presidency to the South looks like a very wise step. Nigerian stockmarket may go up from coming Tuesday because of this, especially if well supported by the APC presidential primaries.

Let me quickly buy something on Monday ??

Mpeace:
current directors holdings as at 2021 is seen on the extreme right. But nothing appears on the 2022 column.
But also notice that Tunde Hassan Odukaleholdings increased substantially as against zero holdings in 2021. It appears the battle for control of fbnh might still be on.

Look at the current directors. All of them don't have shares. That doesn't look nice. They won't even mind lowering the dividends while increasing their emoluments. As it has no impact on them as they are not shareholders.

Mpeace:
Over 100% improvement from last year. But I noticed that except for Adesola Adeduntan, all other directors sold all of their shares between December and March.

I noticed nothing recorded against former FBNH directors as holdings at time of writing Q1. Doubt if they sold off everything. Perhaps they decided not to show their current holdings as they are no more directors. But then a foot note needs to be inserted to prevent ambiguity.

I noticed current directors don't have FBNH shares. That doesn't look good.

.

Mpeace:
Poor dividend but excellent performance.
Eps from 2.45 to 4.17
Profit after tax from 89.7billion to 151billion.
The elephant could well be back again but lets look deeply into the result before concluding.

FBNH results need to be looked into deeply to understand the reason for the poor dividend payout ratio that is less than 10% of EPS. Perhaps capital adequacy ratio issues as customer deposits has been growing nicely.

Hope the delayed FBNH results will be good like the delayed PRESCO results. Not all delayed results are bad.

.

gbengafaro1986:
FBNH making me nervous, its packing heat like some ppl know something we dont know

The soothing thing while waiting is Femi et al are mopping it up at N12

erwinschro:
Again, One man's debts are another man's financial assets. It is the holders of the debt that suffer more than the debtors. When the US government inflates away its debt, it inflates away ALL dollar denominated debts. Think about it, if the dollar is devalued then this is fantastic news if you are owing dollars because it is easier to pay back your eurobond.

Meaning debtor countries will not have a worse case but an easier pay off if the dollar devalues significantly. That's my thought as well.

It's all those who have saved in dollars that will be worse off in expectations of what their dollar reserves purchasing power.

Seunn11:
For debtors countries (in dollars), there case will likely be worse.

Why will their case be worse. If the debt is fixed rate, not callable anyhow and the country still has export earning power.

gbengafaro1986:
how does this issue affect EUROBONDS because almost every top Nigerian Bank has a eurobond offering?

Since there is a low probability the Naira will appreciate against the dollar even if the dollar devalues relative to major international currencies, my thought is in Naira terms, there will be no negative impact on Naija banks.

erwinschro:
The dollar devaluation is going to be very extreme IMO. One man's debts (US Government) is another man's financial assets (Holders of US T-Bills AKA everyone in the world). The US obviously cannot afford to pay their debts so the only choice is to inflate it away which they have already done massively with "quantitative easing". Once everybody wakes up and realizes their assets are being inflated away then the jig is up. They start selling their bonds when they realize they will be paid back in worthless dollars - and this is what causes these devaluations/currency crises to be swift.

But the dollar being over valued due to excessive debt no be today. It has been building up for a long time. Lot's of countries will be impacted if the dollar collapses. Difficult to imagine a massive sharp impact. There is still a lot of interest in sovereigns saving globally in $$$. The dollar still gained last week relatively to global major currencies due to demand. As there is still no other major global reserve currency like the dollar.

RabbiDoracle:
The coming dollar devaluation is going to trump what we saw in 2008. Just relax.

Dollar will be massively devalued. It will create a wealth effect in EMs. After the wealth effect, what comes next is what I don't know.

Foreign market has not started to run yet. This is just the beginning. It won't be a straight line down for them.

The dollar being over valued has been on for many years now. The cloud is getting thicker and thicker. Despite the cloud the dollar gained last week on most international currencies if i quote the news correctly. Even if the dollar is devalued with respect to international currencies, the naira is still under pressure to be devalued relatively to the dollar mainly due to insecurity. Insecurity is currently holding back $'s looking for Naira. Ideally many Nigerians earning dollars would not mind visiting home more and perhaps retire to Nigeria with a lower cost of living and to enjoy good quality fresh food. If this issue of insecurity clears NSE has an upward path from it's current lows.

emmasoft:
You fill a new mandate with the preferred account. It's better done at the registrar's office.

Thanks for the super fast response.

I have a question for any member knowledgeable on it to help me.

If one wants to change the account in which he receives his/her e-dividend in. As another bank is now preferred for getting it. Does one fill out a new eDividend form with each Registrar and submit it either at the bank or registrars office. ?

Mpeace:
lol. No result for now. They are still sending the result to the CBN for approval. Long thing.

Na real long thing. Another 1 to 4 weeks wait

Mpeace:
UBA result is not that bad. PAT of of 48bilion as against 38billion,
Eps of 1.14 as against 1.04 from last year.

Good PAT but bad comprehensive income.

Other Opex up ~20 % on a mix bag of reasons. But explicit in note 14 fuel/maintenance cost up by ~20%. But that line of cost is ~ a 5th of other opex. The revenue engines are delivering faster than any opex increase thereby yielding a good PAT

FBNH 3 days to go. Perhaps coming with Q1 together. Perhaps very bad. Perhaps Good.

RabbiDoracle:
Read note 15.

The N7b increase in other operating expenses was not due to diesel cost.

Out of this N7b, N6b was from :

- increase in deposit insurance premiums (+N1.2b)
-increase in AMCON expenses (+N2.2b)
-increase in advert, promotion and corporate gifts (+N0.3b)
-increase in administrative, communication and sponsorship expenses (+N1.2b)
-increase in Human capital expenses (+N1.1b)

Diesel and electricity cost was just a paltry +N0.3b increase.

Nigerian Banks have adjusted to the energy crisis happening globally and that is why they are operating reduced working hours. Some branches operate 9 am to 1pm, some 9am to 3pm. Some till 5pm.

In Germany, you are advised to shower cold. In France, you are told to wash your dishes or laundry only at the weekends to reduce load.

So the GTB N7b expenses was truly on "other operating items" .

Thanks for answering the question speedily. Good to see diesel cost is being managed with operating hours from your chat and not the cause of OPEX jump. However rising OPEX seem to be trending. Perhaps banks will see more AMCON expenses as this was the biggest in the note 15. But will not enough to shake profits due to revenues increasing faster.

Mpeace:
Cost of diesel and other economic factors will definitely hit companies. Tax also went up for the bank.

Stanbic IBTC operating expenses also up by about 30%. ETI's up by only 9%. NB's expenses up. Ikeja Hotels expenses Jumped. Looks likes cost of diesel is hitting all companies hard. Some companies will find it easier to pass it to customers. And increase their revenues to offset these costs and still deliver profits. While some will just have to take a cut in profits. So which companies will reap from this increased diesel costs?

Cadillac15:
Profitability on the decline

GTCO ops expenses has shut up by N7b (about 30%) comparing 2021Q1 with 2022Q1. Is this due to diesel or what?

On initial glance, Their investment securities interest income looks restored.

FBNH max of 6 days to go

Dum20:
You noticed too?

It should be all transactions dating back to whenever. That is why they are selling the service i think.

Did not notice every stock have transactions captured. Surely there will be limitations on database capacity/architecture if all transactions dating back to whenever are to be made viewable. Thus some data histories will be truncated automatically after some xyz activity or time or something.

Will take a closer look next time I log in. And check how much historical transactions are there and if it's on all stocks or some.

Dum20:
Thank you for the feedback.

But you can actually see transaction history of all your buy and sell, purchase or sell price, quantity purchased or sold, date of purchase, price bought or sold.

That is why it is CSCS( Central Securities Clearing System) they clear all trades on the NSE and keep the records.

That is why when we go to our brokers, the print our CSCS statements for us.


I decided to renew mine and I could see all my trade history for some of my stocks and could not see for the others.

I wonder if anyone has had that experience.

I noticed too that for some stocks one can see the transactions in ones CSCS account when logged-in. Could it be time related?. That is last x weeks transactions. Or is stock related ?

BabsO2:
I am waiting for FBNH extended audit and dividend info to be released to the market

Apart from waiting to see what FBNH dividend will look like post extended audit, I am also waiting for Q1 results generally to see how the companies are growing faster in underlying book value and earnings power than their share prices which seem to have been muted because of the political-economic environment. Sometime I feel some potential risk of disaster has been priced-in to many share prices. And the reason people are not ready to buy with bullish emotions.

robobo:
Ok thanks i now understand your point

However given all the above i would rather take it to be a floor that the MM is not willing to let it go for now (instead of outrightly looking at it as manipulative) but if any supplier (particularly institutional investor) feel the MM is wrong they can always dismantle the wall considering that they (institutional investor) typically have more than the wall holding. My take though might be naive

Thank all the same, appreciate

What I can see as the issue is there are not enough people holding UBA shares that are ready to part with it cheaply. Especially those holding very large quantities of UBA are not ready to dispose it at low prices. On the other hand there are bargain hunters ready to buy it only at discount prices to the last sale price. These bargain hunters could be small hunters and others could be big over prudent institutional investors perhaps with various discount threshold prices they are ready to deal on. And this happens for all stocks in the game of demand and supply.

In FBNH the price was low like UBA or even lower until a loaded strategic investor became very bullish about FBNH.

At the moment even with the bargain prices on many stocks, many fat cats are bearish on Nigeria's political issues. Hence prices are haggled without any bullish fire untill the political environment becomes clear.

GANDALF1:
https://www.sunnewsonline.com/just-in-central-bank-of-nigeria-makurdi-branch-benue-state-on-fire/

Good to read it was limited to the fuel area. The wahala of poor power supply.

GANDALF1:
Its been selling for between 7.95 and N8 since morning, with enough offers to satisfy you.

Why are you not clearing everything

Why are there still offers on the floor sir?

Monkeyhunter

I am waiting for FBNH extended audit and dividend info to be released to the market

GANDALF1:
The most manipulated banking stock on NGX

Are you referring to the price as manipulated or the quarterly and annual reports ?

Assuming audited annual reports are okay and they should be fairly okay. At N8 UBA is one of the best picks amongst bank stocks on the NSE. Dividends paid twice a year, with at least 20 kobo dividend due in 5 months time vs (30 kobo from Zenith and GTCO). It ranges at the top in dividend yield and earnings yield. I am looking forward to buy more at N8 or less.

***CAVEAT**** This is not investment advice. DD.

Mpeace:
I just dey look fidelity now at 4, hmmm where is it headed? UBA and co better move to and maintain the gap.

Mfunkynation:
Good morning,


Just discovered that my dead analog Stockbroker move my shares to Meristem with no information about it.
Now Meristem wants me to open a trading account with them.
but CSCS Statement from Meristem and Morgan Capital has two different Account Number but CHN is the same.

please how do I know my CSCS account number?
an confused

Account numbers with different brokers will always be different just as account number with different banks will be different for an individual. It is excellent the CHN is the same as that should be a unique identifier for an individual (just like BVN is to Banks for individual identification, CHN is supposed to do the same for individuals on the NSE).