₦airaland Forum

essentialone:
Please what website is this snapshot?

RabbiDoracle:
Nothing like that for GTB. I only saw 23m units sold for the month of June 2022 sef.

Genesis Emerging had 183m as current HOLDING after selling 23m units in June 2022. So they can't sell 200m in July 2022.

Check well.

thesilentone:
There was a report in the Financial Times dated July 31st 2022 by Jonathan Wheatley titled ''Emerging markets hit by record streak of withdrawals by foreign investors" Global recession fears and rising interest rates drive rush for the exit. Anyone can read it online - didn't want to post the link because of the algos.

Although, Nigeria was not name-checked, quite a number of countries where including neighbouring Ghana. Should we expect more FPI sales, very likely.

Excerpts:
''Foreign investors have pulled funds out of emerging markets for five straight months in the longest streak of withdrawals on record, highlighting how recession fears and rising interest rates are shaking developing economies.

Cross-border outflows by international investors in EM stocks and domestic bonds reached $10.5bn this month according to provisional data compiled by the Institute of International Finance. That took outflows over the past five months to more than $38bn — the longest period of net outflows since records began in 2005.

The outflows risk exacerbating a mounting financial crisis across developing economies. In the past three months Sri Lanka has defaulted on its sovereign debt and Bangladesh and Pakistan have both approached the IMF for help. A growing number of other issuers across emerging markets are also at risk, investors fear.

Many low and middle-income developing countries are suffering from depreciating currencies and rising borrowing costs, driven by rate rises by the US Federal Reserve and fears of recession in major advanced economies. The US this week recorded its second consecutive quarterly output contraction.

“EM has had a really, really crazy rollercoaster year,” said Karthik Sankaran, senior strategist at Corpay.

Investors have also pulled $30bn so far this year from EM foreign currency bond funds, which invest in bonds issued on capital markets in advanced economies, according to data from JPMorgan.

The foreign currency bonds of at least 20 frontier and emerging markets are trading at yields of more than 10 percentage points above those of comparable US Treasury bonds, according to JPMorgan data collated by the Financial Times. Spreads at such high levels are often seen as an indicator of severe financial stress and default risk.''

thesilentone:
GT looks like it will complete its 100% retracement back to 16.90 area but one has to consider that the downward pull in March 2020 was after dividends were paid. Nothing on the charts suggests that it will bounce yet. Not on the monthly/weekly charts.

This is not advice just responding to your call out as I haven't see the rest of the charts but GT is definitely not in an uptrend yet.

Dum20:
Has anyone received Fidson Alert?

Meristem should not repeat the nonsense they did on FBNH

samguru:
certainly it will.

Banks assets quality has been impaired due to devaluation of naira

Increase in Monetary Policy rate will increase the risk on the existing loans

onegentleguy:
Don't watch for too long oo!

seyisanya:
How do you know that we're now in a full swing bear market? When you see a page or more of e-vawulence!

ositadima1:
The line-up with regards to upside potential, I am about 65% sure :

1. Fidelity
2. FBNH
3. ZENITHBANK
4. FCMB
5. GTCO
6. UBA

After arranging the stocks using the 4 reasons in the previous post it surprisingly matched their PE ratios - Fidelity with d least and UBA the largest!

RabbiDoracle:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/monkeypox-outbreak-constitutes-global-health-emergency-who-2022-07-23/


WHO has declared this a global health emergency.

Forecast remains same. See the sectors they want to crush. And see the sectors that could benefit.

Two things can happen :

(1) oil and other commodities crash as people panic and go indoors again as govt institutes another harsher lockdown.

(2) oil and other commodities don't crash as oil producers sell their commodities at their own high term and people don't go into lockdown. Other commodities rally to all time high.

In both cases, food remains sought after as you must eat to stay alive.

Lots of people are wearied by the lockdown and they could disobey this time ala Sri Lankan Style. This brings out another form of tighter control via electronic tagging, bank account restrictions, digital currencies (easier to know what you have and block your account once you are found in a questionable group of protesters), communication block etc.

You are not the cause of these events. So trade it.

gentop1:
Collected mine o. On the payment date

Payunsin:
I have access to loan facility at 17% / annum and I am tempted to take it and invest it in the stock market.
I have done margin trading in the past that almost bankrupted me, so I am also scared.
Uba and Gtb and Dangote Sugar are on my radar. Need more reccomendations and advise pls

DrAwo:
You are asking a core accounting/ financial reporting question...

Difficult to explain here (I'm still learning it myself) but I suggest you Google and read about IFRS 9.it has all the answers you seek...

jideflash:
Investment securities FVOCI that eroded, could be related to the ban of banks from OMO Bills by cbn.

onegentleguy:
You see the problem with that No 1 reason is that; it is like saying you'd prefer a company that gives you less after earning more (FCMB), than a company that gives you more after earning less. (UBA)

With reference to dividend YIELD (CGY in view), there are better ways to compare coys within the same sector.
A P2P comparison should always be a function of invested capital + equity pricing combined and not either line in isolation.

1st off, you are likely to get an approx 2.67% yield in the next 30-60 days investing in UBA (plausible 20k div in view) but zero yield investing in FCMB.
Now that makes the former better than the latter in the short/near term even without due consideration to fundamental value preposition.

Again as you rightly admitted, one is likely to make 6.7% more (difference in possible annual yield) investing in the "U" name ahead of the "F" assuming they decide to stake an equal amount of fund in UBA @ N7.5 and FCMB @ N3.

Of course, in both scenario, we are assuming that the other part of CGY (cap appreciation) is constant.

Your No 2 and 4 line is the more reason you should seek to align with a coy like UBA @ CMP ahead of FCMB.
As long as a coys fundamentals is healthy, VALUE is often better derived from a depressed equity position than otherwise.

With No 3, yes the chart of FCMB shows an accumulation, but that of UBA shows something even better (momentum ind in view) if one can do their homework well.

Bottomline: Both coys are good but there's a greater probability that an investor seeking higher yield will be better off aligning with UBA than FCMB at this time.
A portfolio % weighting of 70/30 with the former ahead of the latter should do just fine!

In the past, I've always said that I prefer ACCESS ahead of UBA. I still do. ...even in the near term.
But no doubt, UBA is better than FCMB.

If I were to rate banking names on a scale of value accretive stance AT PRESENT, it would be;
GTB>> ZENITH>> ACCESS>> UBA>> FIDELITY>> STANBIC>> FCMB>> FBNH>> WEMA>> STERLING>> JAIZ from LtR in descending order.
Note the phrase "at present"... so things could change in future.

Selah.

ositadima1:
I would choose FCMB over UBA for a few reasons.

1. FCMB distributed 20% out of its earnings to shareholders (2022) for about 6.6% yield, while UBA distributed a whole 70% for 13.3% yield.

2. Since March, 2020 (pandemic) FCMB has grown by 100% (doubled) while UBA has done 50%

3. The OBV, on-balance volume indicator shows that UBA has had sell-offs here and there, even recently. FCMB shows slow but steady accumulation.

4. For year 2022, UBA is up 5.59%, dividend and price appreciation inclusive. FCMB is up 13.33%.

RabbiDoracle:
I use "breakouts" for upward rising prices and use "breakdown" for downward movement of prices.

The banks I was referring to were NGX stocks.

For EMs (whether in Asia, ME or Africa) , I still expect a decent move in their stock prices before the global depression hits commodity producing EMs.

RabbiDoracle:
In my opinion, this will not have effect on NSE except when the global depression hits the oil producers and cause oil prices to collapse.

Banks will breakout rapidly and catch many unawares.

As for US stocks and Indexes, they still have a long way to fall. Portfolios will be blown over there and people will understand that everything that rises so rapidly must fall later.

Commodities like oil still have further rise to make. And that will be aggressive. This fall in oil is a move to prepare for the next leg higher. My $220 forecast for Brent still stands.

At a point, dollar will have severe devaluation. Since Fed has continued to tighten and raise rates to make dollar stronger and weaken other EM currencies, China will continue to tighten supply to ensure that they don't get cheaper goods with their strong dollar. That way, the little goods avaible in the West will have severe price increases as we see now. Higher prices, higher energy cost, higher interest rates on the those with loans and squeeze on available income will soon lead to protest in the West as cost of living crisis bites.

Fed strengthens the dollar hoping that they get cheaper goods from producers and hoping that this attracts funds into the US, but the reverse could happen where instead an outflow of funds from the West and you get no goods at all from China (due to their frequent lockdowns). That way all the money printed will remain with the West with no one wanting it.

Many countries in EMs and FMs will feel the bite.... Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Ghana, Pakistan etc. Soon the developed ones (weaker ones in EU) will also start to crumble. And their's could be worst.

okafor67:
Please what is Morningstar premium access and how can one get it

ImperialCovfefe:
Interesting insights. The issue with this is conflating correlation for predictive signal. These guys and MSCI are mostly passive index guys. Most of their changes comes from rebalancing to reflect the constituent of their primary benchmark index

BabsO2:
Snapshot of changes in top fund managers ownership of GTCO, ZENITH, UBA & FBNH from morningstar attached below.

Will be interesting to see what the snapshot will look like in a couple of months. Their holdings in ZENITH is still about the highest. GTCO numbers not properly updated. But I guess the holdings are just below ZENITH's.

MAZI (a ZA concern) seem to have picked up more FBNH from the snapshots.

BabsO2:
It's GTCO and Zenith that have the highest FPI'S. Are some of them pulling out or reducing exposure to Naija further this May. When the NGX data showing outflow for May-22 is updated will have a hint.

https://ngxgroup.com/exchange/data/foreign-portfolio-investment-report/