₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
GTCO
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35229_GUARANTY_TRUST_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC%20_AUDITED_FINANCIAL_.pdf

UBA
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35232_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC%20_AUDITED_FINANCIAL_STATEMEN.pdf

A good one from GTCO, surpassed some investors' expectation I think......
The moneybags that dragged the share price down in order to have their fill will eventually benefit both dividend and price appreciation........those guys can do and undo..........creating issues where there's none. Lol don't mind me.

This UBA result was released in less than 3 weeks with CBN. That was fast. While Access that submitted earlier has not been released by the CBN.

The 80kobo UBA dividend is good. Bringing total dividend to N1.00
Good.

Biafran4life:
Do you know that this useless government was using low price of crude oil all this time as a reason of not performing .The accused pdp of doing nothing when crude price was in her favor.I am shocked now to hear this government now saying even with the high price in crude we should expect nothing good.Apc is is full of lies.Not even excess crude account being funded

I am worried of this issue of the current government saying high oil prices is not good, can signal panic to investors (due to a total loss in confidence on the current govt) and precipitate the market going sideways while trending down gently.

The SEPLAT Mobil purchase facing a prospect of being tampered with can reinforce this loss of confidence. Coupled with the current mess in petrol supply the market is loosing much steam.

Since the market is ahead of the economy it means companies may find it difficult to continue making good profits. These issues need to be watched closely.

More care is needed with stock selection. No need to over pay for any stock.

gold360:
thank you sir, is there a way I can offload my sky bank and fcmb shares and replace them with better shares?

Skyebank is of zero value. That is all shares any one has in it is worthless

If you contact a stockbroker you can get your FCMB sold.

Also you can get your unclaimed dividend by getting in touch with the Registrar. Especially if the amount of unclaimed dividend is more than the cost of transportation to the Registrar.

http://www.sec.gov.ng/non-mandated/
You can use the above link to check your unclaimed dividends share/Registrar listing in the NSE by typing your full name.

gold360:
thanks sir.

I also have sky bank and fcmb shares which haven't been paying dividends since.
Any hope this year?

Skyebank is no longer a going concern.
FCMB has been paying a little dividend every year.

Valueinvestor:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35193_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20CANCELLATION_.pdf

They didn't even give reason for the cancelation or advice a new date. That looks poor

Market reacted by dropping the price 10kobo.

2zona:
This Russian/Ukraine war is getting intense oo, hoping that bears will not begin to show face and ravage NSE market ooo. May God intervene and save us all.

The FPI people that usually pull the market down vigorously are mostly out and have repatriated their money out as well.

With the high oil price, there are more chances of money trickling into the NSE than leaving it.

Uncertainty around 2023 elections however may pull the market down.

emmanuelewumi:
Not bad at N5.00 and below.

UBA
United Capital
Afriland Properties
Transcorp
Transcorp Hotels
Avon HMO
Heirs Holdings

Will be their first set of clients.

APR actually developed the Invest now app for United Capital and the app played a major role in growth of United Capital

Ah with a week closing price of N7.35 that means Afriprud is currently overpriced.
Especially with their 50kobo dividends

talk2me2:
When will this government begin to tell Nigerians the truth. During OBJ's government, When crude oil rallied the government had more than enough to share to the FG, states G. and LG. They also paid PMS & DPK subsidies and still had plenty left that they had to create the excess crude account to keep. The same with GEJ's government. But since this APC /Buhari came to power in 2015 till date, it has always been from one excuse or lie to another.

Some of the excess money may be tricking into the stock market. And or fund the big companies in the market.

Mpeace:
https://www.reubenabati.com.ng/index.php/component/k2/rising-oil-prices-not-good-for-nigeria-says-sylva?fbclid=IwAR0ksmI196PMrv3aWcGLNcj9eoSlBoojWeiBNRLGxP9ngz_zs0dulwqGO4k
You petroleum minister says high oil prices not good for nigeria.

Not good for FG. That doesn't mean some Nigerians will not be feeding fat on that misery.

emmanuelewumi:
Genesis of the discussion was the possibility of a dividend of 50k as said by someone on this thread, which I believe is not possible in the next 3 years

I tried to summarize or is it conclude the discussion explicitly. That, Transcorp is not the company for anyone hunting for a fat dividend income. That indeed 50k cannot happen soon and the reasons why.

emmanuelewumi:
Forget earnings, what is their free cash flow.

Where will Transcorp get over N20 billion to pay as dividend at 50k per share ...


Transcorp can't pay a dividend of 50k in the next 3 years

Okay O

Transcorp is more like a speculative growth stock. Not a stock for dividend hunting.

Speculative because non of its subsidiaries (or is it companies) has reached the stage of being a strong cash cow. And even if one of its subsidiaries becomes a strong cash cow, Trasncorp still needs a lot of cash for investment in its other subsidiaries. These investments can end up becoming good or bad. Hence the categorization as a speculative stock.

Transcorp needs a lot money to fund the business as well as to pay the non controlling interest that are as big as shareholders. Hence even with a projected earnings per share attributed to shareholders of 28k estimated for 2021. The likely dividend will be 5k. There is also a possibility of 3k only, in order to fund the business growth.

With a 3k or 5k dividend about 25k will be sent to reserves to counterbalance the huge non controlling interest size.

kolaish:
If you are the owner of transcorp, will you pay the bolded? If so, that will amount to financial recklessness. Transcorp is a company that is highly indebted. Beside that, the company needs a lot of money for expansion and other ventures. Please note that the company is yet to get 1kobo from their oil & gas business till date, you can confirm that from page 10 of their Q3 report that detailed the sources of all their earning. Kindly remind me if transcorp pay the bolded, not just this year but in 2023.

NB: I am in transcorp boat as well, I bought at an average price of 1.02k. so don't think that I am running the company down, but just being realistic.

kolaish:
Transcorp has not paid more than 5k dividend since 2015. They may likely pay between 3k - 5k this year. I don't see them paying more than 15k, even in the next 3 years, though nothing is impossible in NSE.

Leave dividend aside. What shareholder EPS do you see for 2021 and 2022 respectively. I see minimum of 28k and 40k respectively based on their 2021 Q3 report.

emmanuelewumi:
Not possible in the next 3 years

The shareholder earning per share can reach or even exceed 50k this year if the acceleration of earnings quarter on quarter as seen in 2021 q1, q2, and q3 continues.

Not sure of their dividend policy. If it is up to 75% of EPS. A dividend of 50k is possible in the next two to three years. But 75% dividend policy looks too high. Thus possible but too high an expectation for dividends.

dharpzee:
Abeg, what if transcorp surprises us by paying 50k dividend? I just dey think am o, based on UCAP like this and their Q3financials?

I estimate Transcorp EPS for shareholders in 2021 will be about 28 kobo per share if Q4 performance is like Q3 performance. With this they cannot pay 50k.

Based on the 28 kobo earning per share if they distribute 50% as dividend that will be a 14kobo dividend. But since they still need money to invest in the business they may give a 5kobo dividend or a 10kobo.

Their board meeting is 1st of March. So in a weeks time the results should be on the NGX website.

dharpzee:
Waiting for the usual dumping carnival for UBA shares

This time is different. Waiting for a UBA rally to catch up with ACCESS, FBNH and ETI.

BabsO2:
I predict 12 month ago that UBA will restore minimum of 80k dividend to be paid March or April 2022. Resulting in a full year dividend of 20k + 80k = N1.00

NSE is back - No announcement about UBA 14th Feb meeting yet

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35123_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC%20APPROVAL_OF_2021_FINANCIAL_.pdf

Meeting held o. Dividend recommendation and report sent to CBN for approval. That's another 3 to 5 weeks waiting.

emmanuelewumi:
He made the prediction about 15 months ago, he might have sold unless he has the staying power

I predict 12 month ago that UBA will restore minimum of 80k dividend to be paid March or April 2022. Resulting in a full year dividend of 20k + 80k = N1.00

NSE is back - No announcement about UBA 14th Feb meeting yet

emmanuelewumi:
You will hear from UBA in March after they have been cleared by CBN.


United Capital will have theirs tomorrow

Did the UBA meeting hold on 14th. And was dividend of 80kobo or more discussed . Was the report passed to CBN for approval.

Ades1:
I was wondering the same. Not surprised though, just hoping it is the normal Nigerian tradition of incompetence and not someone deliberately withholding info to allow people enter or exit

Been waiting to see if UBA has held the board meeting on 14th and discussed dividend and forwarded to CBN or the meeting was aborted again

Now, not sure if the market has started responding by dumping some shares.

What is happening to corporate disclosure. The last update was on the 11th Feb

before the site went down
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Issuers-section/corporate-disclosures/company-results

or stopped updating
https://ngxgroup.com/exchange/data/corporate-disclosures/

emmanuelewumi:
Your entry price is the most important factor if you are a yield hunter.


7.5% is poor for the Nigerian market

I think I am speaking from a different reference compared to you. The 7.5% is based on current valuation of portfolio and 2021 dividends received. If i back out dividend reinvested and focus on original money brought into NSE from work my dividend yield is above 12% and my portfolio has grown significantly in value compared to original money brought into NSE.

IYGEAL:
The current prices don't show the true reflection for a portfolio that has been active for years. During those years, there must have been price fluctuations at which points the investor is expected to balance his portfolio.

I don't have a lot of units of Zenith, for example, but my average price is about N15. I had bought at 11 in 2020 and sold some; then bought more below 20.

My average price for ZENITH is N23.5 because I added it to my portfolio last year and it is about 3% of my portfolio

My average price for UBA is N4.98 and it is about 25% of my portfolio. Waiting for their meeting tomorrow 14th Feb.

emmanuelewumi:
Get enough books to read on dividend investing, 7.5% is too low in the Nigerian market.

I looked through Stanbic IBTC Funds factsheet https://www.stanbicibtcassetmanagement.com/static_file/Nigeria/nigeriaassetmanagement/SIAML/FileDownloads/PDF%20Files/SIAML_Consolidated_Fact_Sheet_Dec2021.pdf

Their Equity Fund that invests about 73% in Equities and 27% in Fixed income. Their 5 year performance which includes dividends and capital appreciation at the end of 2021 was 44%. That tells me a 7.5% return for anyone's portfolio based on dividends and coupons only is not too low in the Nigerian market.

Will build a table of Average stock price vs dividend for a couple of stocks to cross check what performance on an individual stock basis for 2021 was.

emmanuelewumi:
Get enough books to read on dividend investing, 7.5% is too low in the Nigerian market.

Using current market values I think a portfolio return of 6% is fair or average. And one of 9% and above income yield is excellent. Especially if the portfolio also grows in valuation in trend with inflation.

emmanuelewumi:
I use yield on cost, one of the reason why I average down good stocks.

I love buying stocks at cheap prices especially in a down market. So I am a yield hunter

I am more concerned about the cash flow from the portfolio through diversification and reinvesting for a better yield.


If you have been using dollar cost averaging over the years your average price for Zenith should be less than N19, Dangote cement should be less than N190, United Capital should be less than N2.50k etc.


N5 million invested in Vitafoam in 2020, will give you a dividend of about 450k in 2020, dividend of 630k in 2021 and a dividend of N1.35 million in 2022.

The Vitafoam shares that will give this dividend is 1 million units currently valued at N24 million.

As a yield hunter, selling half of the shares will give me a dividend of 675k. The fund realized from the sale will be diversified in a FGN bond at 13% to earn a coupon of N1.56 million. When added to the 675k, I will get a total of N2.23 million from this diversification or portfolio rebalancing.

Part of this dividend will be used to repurchase more of Vitafoam shares after dividend payments.

Fixed income Investment are not as volatile as equities, they can also be used to get more shares in the company based on the future prospect of the business .

Even when I do dividend yield based on cost I get about 7.5% for 2021 dividend income after taking out impaired investments. That is I am getting 7.5% after taking out Impaired investments like International Energy Insurance, STARCOMMS, SKYEBANK. Can claim to afford taking them out since my current portfolio value is nearly double my cost value for all stocks i have purchased including the ones that have gone bad that have turned to zero value like SKYEBANK. That is looking at Equity alone. If I factor in bonds I get about 9%

But using current market values I think a portfolio return of 6% is fair or average. And one of 9% and above income yield is excellent. Especially is the portfolio also grows in valuation in trend with inflation.

emmanuelewumi:
Not too high oooo

That portfolio will only have the likes of Zenith. And cannot add any other stock on the NSE as most of them have dividend yields less than 11.5%

emmanuelewumi:
No big deal, just replicate what you did with your portfolio for your brother. He needs to sell some of the dead stocks in his portfolio and reduce the stocks to about 30.


He should have two Stockbroking accounts, one will be for long term Investment this should be worth about 70% of his portfolio, the other account should be for trading.


What is the current dividend generated by his portfolio? He should endeavour to invest part of his dividends in fixed income funds.


What will he do if the market is very bearish when his children are about to be admitted to the University, will he sell in a down market?

Reason why he needs funds that won't be affected by the market conditions.



If I may ask, what is the current dividend produced by your portfolio? if it it less than N12 million you need to rebalance your portfolio for a better yield

Is a target of N12 million dividend from a portfolio of N104 million not too high. That is an average dividend (& Coupon) income yield of 11.5% ?

I think an aggressive portfolio should aim for about 9%. While an average portfolio should aim for about 6%.

I will appreciate your views and that of everyone. Looks like i am doing less than 6%.

moneymanager:
So we are going to be alright after all.
Our kids will be fine
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html

If you divide the GDP by population I guess Nigeria will continue to rank poorly as we move towards 2050. That means we should be striving for a higher GDP than these.

GANDALF1:
I bought this UBA I sold today in Jan 2021. Same sentiments.

In the end, profit was great but what happened? Elumelu did his magic and the price dropped to N6.80 from above N8 in one day, less than 1 month after I bought. Took 1 full year to get the break even price/quantity to dispose them today.

Anyway, plan your trade, Trade your plan

PS: I will never touch any Elumelu's company again in a bull market

But the way he champions entrepreneurship in Africa makes him look responsible. Perhaps he takes too much risk like a cowboy. I have UBA and Transcorp managed by him

GANDALF1:
Thats a good strategy you have there. and you are correct about me not buying anything at the moment. Instead I exited my UBA position today and I am now 100% in cash.

NSE has exceeded its known resistance and is beginning to show weakness in volumes. Dont forget that it is local liquidity that is driving the markets now. So I need people like you to buy and hold.

Once the fuel dries, the prices will drop back and I will buy low while you will be trapped and might stay trapped because it might take you one year to bail.

Exited some FBNH positions at N12 and bought more UBA at N8.20 to 8.30 betting on EPS above N3 in 2020 and beyond with a dividend total of N1.0 yearly from UBA. Plus the book value of UBA continuing to grow above N21. But with the change of UBA board meeting from last week Tuesday to mid February perhaps UBA 2020 results is bad.

onegentleguy:
He probably thinks he's been CAUTIOUS but unknown to him, he is been UNDULY PESSIMISTIC.
He needs to have a BALANCED VIEW of things.

Some stocks will rise and some will fall.
The KEY is to "continually work to be on the right side of the divide".
The mkt will time again experience varying degrees of pullback, but folks should not expect a major bear in the near term.

Selah

In line with some of your thoughts.

I think the pre elections sag (sell-off) may not play out this year for a couple of reasons.

*Oil prices may remain high. NSE does well with high oil prices.
*Many stocks are currently under priced with excellent PE's, dividend yields and growth prospects. Hence many value investors will hold on to their stocks and likely continue to buy more as dividend yields are as good or better than money markets on a short to medium to long term basis in varying degrees.
*A lot of FPI'S have already exited and CBN cleared a lot of their outstanding repatriation last year. Hence the gas for crazy sell downs is reduced.
*The new capital gains tax on equities on gains above N100m leaving the NSE may dampen appetite of FPI'S for jijo. This may reduce volatility of prices on the NSE.
*Current CBN monetary policy aims to curtail inflation and ballooning of cost of government borrowing via development economics approach and will most likely not increase interest rates this year.
*Many International stocks (US) currently overpriced and may likely withness negative returns this year.

We may not have a major sell off this year if the following points continue to stand. But there will be room to increase returns above inflation through careful stock picks this year.