Casualobserver's Posts
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lexy2014:perhaps you should send an email to Adebutu to ask him |
tesppidd:majority of Nigerians are ignorant |
tesppidd:5-10,000 is all it takes. There is no 80,000 stadium in Nigeria. The stadium in Abeokuta where i believe this took place has a capacity of 10,000 |
The PDP governorship candidate Adebutu is very popular with the grassroots. they are there for Adebutu not Atiku |
Buhari should have asked him why are they killing blacks in America |
Reminds me of when Tony Blair and Bill Clinton we’re running for office and they honored the invitation of the NIIA to address them in V/I, after which they went to see the oba of Benin, sultan of Sokoto and Ooni of Ife for blessing and prayers. We are not going anywhere as a country. |
I am no fan of Atiku but I commend him for not honoring g the invitation. Who do they think they are? Do they invite American Japanese German or French presidential candidates? I blame Tinubu and Obi for dignifying them with their presence. Slavery and colonialism has ended. If they want to talk to our presidential candidates they should come to Nigeria and interview them. This is one of our biggest problems I. Nigeria and Africa…inferiority complex. |
nameo:I am not an Obidient but chai my people suffer from ignorance no be small. What Obi probably has a honorary citizenship. It’s not real citizenship it’s like governor of the day they do for school children. Any Dick and Harry can be awarded honorary citizen without even having any acheirvement. I am surprised this Danjuma who I think is a SAN is getting himself involved in this. |
Kayberg:she is clearly a product of a damaged home or a single mother. let them be, you cant argue sense into people who do not have experience of a stable home and know nothing other than dysfunction. For instance how do you counsel an adult woman who grew up seeing her mother bring home different boyfriends or never experienced 1st hand the role of a father? |
siofra:You are welcome, entitled to and deserve that kind of man. Women with self respect will continue o get the better men in society. I guess somebody must marry the weak men in society. if that is the kind of husband you aspire to, then i can only pray God grants you your wishes. |
Fujiyama: |
meobizy:They all think they are liberated modern women but will all learn the error of their ways when they find themselves In their mid thirties and forties without husbands and no one want to marry them and faced with no option but to be single mothers and passed on from one married man to another. No man worth his salt marries a woman with a dodgy past. If you have one you keep it to yourself not advertise it. |
aujile:I just watched a replay of an interview on channels. Where a professor summed up one of the biggest problems with Nigeria. He said the problem of Nigeria isn’t corruption, the problem of Nigeria is a low intellectual capacity. It is this low intellectual capacity that leads to corruption. What he is basically saying is that Nigerians don’t think right. Our current total govt revenue is less than $30b a year, our 2023 budget is $49billion at the official rate. But in reality it is more like $24b. We need to find An extra $30-50b a year MINIMUM just to arrest the poverty rate and population growth. Apart from the wastage on subsidy, there is no govt saving Anywhere that will make any difference don’t let anybody deceive you playing to the gallery. It is not saving that will help Nigeria it is innovative new sources of revenue. Anyone who hasn’t got the ability to raise revenues and innovative ways to finance our social and infrastructure deficits is deceiving you by telling you he will stop leakages and channel the money into development. How much leakage can you stop when your entire expenditure is $25b and you need an additional $50b a year? Like The professor said the problem with Nigeria is intellectual deficit. If you raise an additional $50b….even $20b. Even if they steal half of it, you will feel the development in the economy. Ps I am not advocating corruption waste or theft, I am just pointing out the real issues and the intellectual deficiencies in the wastage and savings argument. Govt does not earn enough revenue for any plugging of leakages to make a difference. |
Fujiyama:When you hear someone talking about avoiding debt or thinks being debt free is automatically a good thing or has an aversion to debt especially in a developing economy, it shows the person has no real understanding of wealth creation. Don’t be confused buying and selling especially when you have sole distributor ship for sale whole country will make you wealthy without really understanding wealth creation and finance especially public development finance. Debt is an instrument of wealth creation. Debt for investment is good debt for consumption is bad. So when you talk about debt, you have to distinguish what kind of debt you are talking about. Debt to pay fuel subsidy is suicidal and it is the root of our problems under Buhari. The debt incurred on subsidy every year is enough to build 1 refinery a year! If he had incited debt to fix our refineries, we wouldn’t import fuel, forex demand will be less inflation would be lower and there would be less need for subsidy because we aren’t importing fuel. Debt to build rail roads and schools is good debt because it will pay itself with a more efficient economy a better educated population who will earn more and pay more taxes. When I see someone with an aversion for debt for debt sake or who talks about saving and cutting wastage to fuel Nigerians growth, I know the person is not serious. The is only 1 way to solve Nigerians problems going forward. Raise revenues, stop subsidies and secure sources additional debt for development projects hopefully financed with increased taxes/ revenues. Anyone who thinks they can take Nigeria forward by cutting wastage is a clown. At most you save $1b a year. Nigeria needs to find $500-$1trillion over the next 10 years to arrest the rot. Your savings is not going to make a dent. Only carefully targeted debt investment and massive revenue increase can solve the problem. Any clown telling you he won’t travel with entourage is just playing to the gallery, I am not saying he should not cut down on entourages but how much do entourage cost? I will sell this guest house, I will sell that guest house is just insulting the intelligence of those who have any. It is not the money you save from cutting down your entourage or cutting down the presidential fleet that will make any difference to the development of the country. Obasanjo sold all govt official quarters only for the same govt to give allowances far in excess of what it costs to run those official quarters. Elon musk is the richest man in the world he borrowed money to buy Twitter. Dangote is the richest black man in Africa, he borrowed money to build his refinery. They are both likely going to get richer as a result. There is debt and there is debt. When you hear someone talking about saving when you are undeveloped or having an aversion for debt for debt sake..trust me the person has no clue. You need to find a way to raise revenues by or inject an average of $50b a year in the public and social infrastructure of the economy and someone is talking about savings….that’s a sign of small mindedness…..someone guaranteed to keep the country in poverty.. |
IbeOkehie:Wrong! The biggest mistake we make is to blindly follow whatever the latest fashionable economic model in the west. Like I said earlier Obasanjo/Atiku privatized over 150 government owned companies under the guise that govt has no business in business. Of all those companies Alaska steel, Ajaokuta, PAN, Nigerian airways, nepa nitel, etc etc how many of them are functioning now that they were sold at a pittance to private individuals? Most were sold for cents on the dollar and were asset stripped. The problem isn’t govt owning companies, the problem is government managing companies. NLNG is an axample of a profitable efficient govt owned company..why because it is not managed by the govt. We have lost many industries and many jobs and many assets because we bought into the western model. Firstly when you study economics you modify it to your environment. Secondly there are some industries that only govt have the funds to establish especially in a high interest rate environment. Only govt can set up these industries. Govt should set them up and be a minority shareholder and let private sector mange them. It is not that govt has no business in business it is that govt has no business managing businesses. So a model where govt finances the establishment of large scal industries as a minority partner. With management in the hands of the private sector technical/management partner with a stake in the business like NLNG. If we are waiting for Oyinbo model to kick start our development without govt we will be here forever. |
Fujiyama:ok he is the most knowledgeable on finance, budgeting and accounting of all past Nigerian presidents and the leading aspirants. Obasanjo got us debt relief...to what avail? all the saving was looted with nothing to show in infrastructure...electricity zero, roads zero, refineries zero, rail zero...upon all he even sold over 150 govt owned companies. Peter Obi saved money for Anambra...to what avail? People who understand money, debt and budgeting know that for a country badly in need of development, you borrow as much as you can and invest in infrastructure and social programs. The more you borrow the less there is to steal, the more you save the more there is to steal. the more you borrow the more your successor have to engage their brains to generate revenue, the more you borrow the more you can invest in creating future wealth. Ofcourse the caveat here is that so long as the borrowing is invested properly. However in the case of Nigeria, you save money you are just saving money for your succesor to loot without doing any work. If your successor is going to loot at least leave him/her with a debt burden (hopefully for visible infrastructure) so that if he want to loot he has to work to generate increased revenue, because debt is always deducted at source from FAAC. |
Johnthejohn:For all his flaws, He is the most qualified of all the Nigerian presidents to date on finance, budgeting and accounting. |
You cannot lose what you never had. |
All I know is that Emefiele is the worst governor in CBN history. |
Curious345:Obasanjo has never endorelaed a good president and he has always opposed any good candidate. Just look at the people Obasanjo has backed and the people he opposed. He opposed Awo and Abiola, he endorsed Shagari, Yaradua, GEJ, Buhari and Atiku. I rest my case. Obasanjo will never endorse anyone that will outshine him, if you do t know that you don’t know the man. |
Curious345:He is the worst ever! If you say Buhari is the worst, did he not endorse Buhari? Which president has Obasanjo endorsed that has done well? Shagari, yaradua, GEJ? |
Alezy:You are being emotional. There won’t be a run-off. Tinubu/APC was never strong in the SS and SE. so what happens there makes no difference to him. SS/SE is merely a redistribution of some Atiku votes to Obi. Whatever Atiku loses in the SS/SE he will make up in the North. Obi has no northern votes. Obi will do well in Plateau and Benue and may even win, but win in a 3 horse race means he gets 35- 40% of the votes. The margin won’t amount to much in absolute terms. Obis margin of victory in Benue and Plateau will not amount to more than 200k votes max. Kogi and Kwara will reduce if not eliminate that for Tinubu. Obi is not getting any meaningful votes North of the middle belt except maybe southern Kaduna…full stop! Whatever gain Ibi gets in the south will be wiped out by his lack of Northern votes. If there is going to be a run off it will be between Atiku and Tinubu. I repeat nobody will win the South with a big margin over his rivals. Therefore it is your performance In the North that will determine the top 2. If you are not in the race in the North then there is no way you come 1st or second. Again nobody is winning the south with a huge margin. Middle belt is a wash so it is the North that will determine the president. As far as a hypothetical run off, Apc can never come third. So a run off is either between Tinubu and Atiku or Tinubu and Obi. I cannot predict the result of aTinubu/Atiku runoff but Tinubu/Obi is a no contest….North will not vote for Obi! |
Indispensable85:meanwhile some people do not have visa to enter North and they claim they will be president |
Alezy:No i said it clearly that there were only 2 parties. it is even more difficult to win with any convincing margin when there are 3. which makes it even more important that you have states where you have no opposition...i.e you arent sharing votes. it is even more difficult when the majority of voters Obi is cannibalising are PDP voters. This is what is going to happen: Obi will cannibalise PDP votes in the south enough to put him in the race but not enough to win the south. he will do well to come second in the south. Southern APC votes are largely intact because the kind of people who will vote for Obi would never have voted for APC anyway. Atiku will not win the south, he may not even come second. Middle belt will be shared whoever wins will have a total margin for the whole region of not more than 200k votes North: Obi has no hope here. it is a battle between Atiku and Tinubu. No matter what happens in the North obi will not have enough votes to become president. Even if he wins the middle belt and south he will win with a small margin and because he has no presence in the North, at least one of his opponents will quickly surpass him so he is as good as finished. Atiku will damage Tinubu here, the question is how much damage and will the damage be enough to overcome the damage Obi has done to him in the SS,SE and middle belt? I dont think so because for Obi to do well in the south and middle belt, it means Atiku has been decimated and comes with a huge deficit. This may shock you but Atiku did not win ANY state in the North by more than 53% the last time. All the 11 states where he got more than 60% were all in the south...the very same states under threat by Obi See below
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searchlight:says someone who thinks Obi can share votes from the south and Middle belt and become president without the North. I have just explained sharing/splitting of votes to you. you can win a state without winning, if you have no northern votes you have lost before the counting starts. that said nobody is going to win the south convincingly, so even if as you say Tinubu has no votes in the North, then what you are saying is Atiku is the winner. Under no scenario can a southerner win without Northern votes because when your opponents start counting votes in the core North, you need to have ambulance on standby!. |
searchlight:you cannot win without Northern votes simple as!! ...and he isnt winning the south either!! Nobody is winning the south convincingly!! Middle belt will be marginal for APC or PDP, that leaves the North to decide and if yoy have no presence in the North you better start writing your concession speech. |
correctguy101:did they ask me when they were making the babies...educated people...a whole lecturer? |
Alezy:Nigerians tend to talk out of ignorance without looking at the data. The middle belt has never been an election decider and the most inconsequential zone in Nigeria. Why? because the middle belt vote is always split. Every major party does well in the Middle belt such that whoever wins does not win by much even when there were only 2 main contenders. Go and check the election results for the middle belt going way back to the days of Zik/Awo/balewa/shagari. If I get 500k votes and you get 450K, yes I won that state but all that state has contributed to my overall victory is 50k votes out of 950k available voters. Do you now understand the inconsequence of marginal states....they are not king makers! Elections are decided by states where you command 80-90% majority. look at 2019 for instance just one relatively small voter state...Yobe wiped out the victory of PDP in ALL the middle belt states. many of you do not understand elections. Elections are not won by the number of votes you get in a state, they are won by the cumulative difference between your votes and the opponents! if you get 2m votes in a state and I get 1.95 million, your 2m votes do not help you become president especially if despite losing, I have a state where I have 700k votes and you only get 70K. it really is amazing how naive, ignorant and uninformed Nigerians are about the mathematics of elections especially that elections are basically arithmetic. in 2019 Atiku won Adamawa with only 38k votes out of a total votes of approx 800k despite 410k people voting for him In Benue the difference was 9,000 votes (i repeat nine thousand votes) out of a total of 700k votes and 356k Atiku votes...technically Atiku won in Nassarawa Buhari won by only 6,000 votes, In kwara Buhari won by 178K, Plateau out of 1m votes PDP only won by 80k votes and so on and so forth. Add all the PDp victories in the middle belt and just 1 small state of Yobe wiped out all their gains...why? because Yobe votes were not shared....out of 547k votes in Yobe, 497 went to Buhari and 50k to Atiku, leaving Buhari with a margin of 447k to absorb defeats in other states. the irony is that Yobe has less voters than each of all the middle belt states, yet powerful enough to wipe out whatever happens in a whole region......because the votes are shared!! i hope you understand now why Tinubu won the election the minute Obi left PDp and declared for LP...he shared the votes making it difficult for either himself or PDp to have stronghold states and impossible for either him or PDP to win. so the key to victory is having states where your votes are not shared. that is why Tinubu will win the election 1st ballot. Traditionaly stronghold states of PDP like SS/SE will be shared with Obi voters diluting the margin of victory in those states. APC are the only party with their core stronghold states relatively intact, states like Yobe, Borno. if Obi cannot dent APC in the North he is not winning this election, trust me because the states he will win or do well will be marginal. Even in the SE he will contend with PDP. who is contending with APC in states Borno and Yobe? Dont forget, i said small Yobe state with only 500K votes wiped out PDP's entire gain in the middle belt without even using the bazooka Borno votes. lease look at the data before you talk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election. For those who do not understand english, you win a presidential election by adding the difference between you and your opponent in one state and all the other states and whoever is ahead is the winner. so if you are winning states by 20k 8k, 40k when your opponent is winning states by 700k, 900k, 1m....you are not in the race!!! if you get 1m votes in a state and your opponent gets 900k or 1.1m, you are not heading to Aso rock unless you have states that will give you 500k, 700k, 1m difference between you are your opponents. it is not the number of votes you get that matters but the difference! Obi has no nothern presence so by definition he is out of the race before it starts, his only effect in this race is to make Atiku not win States cannot be giving your opponents 1m, 1.5m 1.7 m difference and you have no states to deliver that for you and you expect to win. Emotions aside, it is mathematically impossible! |
you cant afford to deliver them, how will you raise them? Are you going to again appeal to the public when it is time for school fees? |
Well done but it is not nsukka or SE voters that will make him president. Let us see his crowd in Katsina, Kano, Maiduguri, Kaduna, Ilorin, Jigawa, Yobe, Kabba, etc. In short anywhere North because crowd yourself all you like in the south especially SE, without Northern votes no presidency for any southern candidate and vice versa no Northerner can win without southern votes!!! |
Mrkumareze:Wealthy man chopping campaign funds |
PrinceOfLagos:The key is in the emboldened. Peter Obi was accused of many financial improprieties including $115m Dasukigate (google fidelity bank, nnamdi Okonkwo and Diezani) and N200m cash found in the boot of his aide’s car. He wasn’t convicted or found to be corrupt so he is roaming free….same with Tinubu. Okupe on the other hand is a convicted felon!!! |
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