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Casualobserver's Posts

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Politics › Re: Deji Adeyanju Shocked Over Massive Crowd At Atiku's Rally In Ogun by casualobserver: 8:31pm On Jan 18, 2023
lexy2014:
Who will adebutu mobilise his supporters to vote for?
perhaps you should send an email to Adebutu to ask him
Politics › Re: Deji Adeyanju Shocked Over Massive Crowd At Atiku's Rally In Ogun by casualobserver: 8:30pm On Jan 18, 2023
tesppidd:
I tire oohh

So why do so many ignorant people make much Ado about a politician packing a stadium.

Imagine 20 thousand people out of 1.5 million adults in a state.

Naim dem dey make noise.
majority of Nigerians are ignorant
Politics › Re: Deji Adeyanju Shocked Over Massive Crowd At Atiku's Rally In Ogun by casualobserver: 7:05pm On Jan 18, 2023
tesppidd:
I wonder why someone like Deji whom I thought is intelligent is joining to say such thrash.

What does it take to pack a stadium?

80 thousand people are enough to pack a stadium.
Most states have at least 1.5 million people between the ages of 17 and 55.

Any average politician can pack a stadium.


People who always brag about full stadiums are either mischievous or foolish.
5-10,000 is all it takes. There is no 80,000 stadium in Nigeria. The stadium in Abeokuta where i believe this took place has a capacity of 10,000
Politics › Re: Deji Adeyanju Shocked Over Massive Crowd At Atiku's Rally In Ogun by casualobserver: 6:47pm On Jan 18, 2023
The PDP governorship candidate Adebutu is very popular with the grassroots. they are there for Adebutu not Atiku
Politics › Re: Why Are You Killing Christians In Nigeria?: Buhari Recalls Meeting With Trump by casualobserver: 10:18am On Jan 18, 2023
Buhari should have asked him why are they killing blacks in America
Politics › Re: Peter Obi & Datti Visit The Archbishop Of Canterbury After Chatham House Event by casualobserver:
Reminds me of when Tony Blair and Bill Clinton we’re running for office and they honored the invitation of the NIIA to address them in V/I, after which they went to see the oba of Benin, sultan of Sokoto and Ooni of Ife for blessing and prayers.


We are not going anywhere as a country.
Politics › Re: Atiku Didn’t Reply To Our Invitation — Chatham House by casualobserver: 5:36pm On Jan 16, 2023
I am no fan of Atiku but I commend him for not honoring g the invitation.

Who do they think they are? Do they invite American Japanese German or French presidential candidates?

I blame Tinubu and Obi for dignifying them with their presence.

Slavery and colonialism has ended. If they want to talk to our presidential candidates they should come to Nigeria and interview them.

This is one of our biggest problems I. Nigeria and Africa…inferiority complex.
Politics › Re: NRM Party Sues Peter Obi Over Honorary Citizenship Of Dallas by casualobserver: 5:32pm On Jan 16, 2023
nameo:
Lolz... Dallas na country

How can Dallas have "citizenship" in international law?

Are these the sorts of things Obi's opponents have "discovered" about him after months of searching for dirts on him?

Obi na man you be!!
I am not an Obidient but chai my people suffer from ignorance no be small. What Obi probably has a honorary citizenship. It’s not real citizenship it’s like governor of the day they do for school children. Any Dick and Harry can be awarded honorary citizen without even having any acheirvement.

I am surprised this Danjuma who I think is a SAN is getting himself involved in this.
Family › Re: Every Woman Needs A Husband Like This (photo) by casualobserver: 2:39pm On Jan 14, 2023
Kayberg:
And such is a wicked woman.
If she had done that in the past before she got married, it would have been buried in the past.

But for a wife to do that to her husband is pure wickedness.
I do not believe in the Simpleton or Alpha Male thing, but that woman there is free to go live her life far away from me if I were her husband.

What kind of generation of marriage are you trying to build with this comment of yours?
A generation of infidels who have no regards for the oath of marriage?
she is clearly a product of a damaged home or a single mother. let them be, you cant argue sense into people who do not have experience of a stable home and know nothing other than dysfunction. For instance how do you counsel an adult woman who grew up seeing her mother bring home different boyfriends or never experienced 1st hand the role of a father?
Family › Re: Every Woman Needs A Husband Like This (photo) by casualobserver: 2:35pm On Jan 14, 2023
siofra:
This is what a man should be like. He must protect his family and stand by his wife no matter what, like Joseph in the Bible did to Mary when she became pregnant out of wedlock.


A true christian man I stan!
You are welcome, entitled to and deserve that kind of man. Women with self respect will continue o get the better men in society. I guess somebody must marry the weak men in society.

if that is the kind of husband you aspire to, then i can only pray God grants you your wishes.
Politics › Re: Budget Deficits Not Necessarily Bad – Tinubu Reacts To 2023 Appropriation by casualobserver:
Fujiyama:
^^^
On a general note you are right. Taking on debt can create wealth - and it does. We see it in the private sector all the time. The public sector...not so much. Does the real world experience of developing countries (sub-saharan Africa in particular) support debt finance as a growth strategy?


the real world suggest that if you dont find a means of raising the revenues to develop your country you will fall behind. What is happenning to Nigeria is we have an aversion to borrowing, we borrow for consumption and we have an aversion for taxing the people or paying taxes. Something has to give and the result is what we are seeing poverty!!!! for instance you need to build roads, you cant spend 16 years building a 121km lagos ibadan road and expect to develop because you dont want to borrow or raise taxes, the world is NOT waiting for Nigeria...this is why we are falling behind


^^^
True. Fair point. We all agree on this.



^^^
Which raises the question: why didn't he build the refineries instead? undecided

I am not Buhari. i cant answer for him. I go back to what the professor said "the problem in Nigeria is not so much corruption but the lack of intellectual capacity" perhaps he was so obsessed with citizen welfare that he didnt realise it is a penny wise pound foolish option..again a consequence of leadership that dont understand wealth and economics. This also goes back to the issue of capacity. Buhari is not a corrupt man even if those around him may be, it just highlights the need to have leaders who understand wealth, finance, development. that you dont steal does not mean those around you wont but more importantly it does not mean you will take the right economic decisions. Again it speaks to what the the lack of intellectual capacity amongst Nigerians both leaders and citizens who seem to think honesty equals competence.



^^^
Again, we are all in agreement on this.



^^^
huh
These are very strong words for what is sensible, prudent behaviour. How is eliminating wastage such a bad thing? huh Are all the measures you listed mutually exclusive? Isn't it possible to cut waste, increase government revenue and borrow sensibly - all at the same time?

I have not said cutting waste is a bad thing. My point is misguided emphasis on cutting waste without emphasizing the real issue.....increasing revenues.



^^^
lipsrsealed lipsrsealed lipsrsealed



^^^
I think at this point you need to post the exact comments made by Obi (I presume all these references are about him) on debt finance. It'll help me understand your argument more.

with sincerity and due respect I suggest you use google


^^^
If you don't reform your public sector and build your institutions you will bleed out that $50b (and more) in no time. There are several studies on the opportunity cost of public sector reform. There are several studies on the true cost of public sector corruption in the 3rd world. They make the point far better than I ever could. Take a look at them.

Nigeria's problems are many. Quite frankly we are a lost cause! IMHO, the damage is too severe for any of the contestants. The mindset and orientation of the people is a far more serious impediment to development than leadership. The constitution is also a problem, you cant build something on nothing. For some reason (again poor mindset, intellectual deficiency) we seem to think can miraculously change our trajectory by changing leaders, but who are these leaders? Leaders emerge from a pool of people called the citizens, the same people with a poor mindset and intellectual deficiencies. If you pick the best fruit to represent your farm from a basket of spoilt or inferior fruit, chances are even the best is still an inferior product because you forget the basket is a basket of spoilt or inferior fruit. My comments are specifically on the issues of debt, revenue and wastage. Until we fix the fundamental issues plaguing us which i believe are the constitution and our orientation/mindset as a people, we wont make any progress. if our focus for generating funds is on cutting waste and reducing debt when the issue should be on increasing revenues
Celebrities › Re: I’m Not Ashamed’ – Phyna Reveals Why She Had Two Abortions At Age 19, 24 by casualobserver: 8:54am On Jan 14, 2023
meobizy:
This must be a Gen Z thing. I don’t understand why this woman has no other speaking point, but this abortion matter. The BBNaija tag has finally gone to the dogs. All these kind doings go firmly secure the man-know-man aspect of contestant selection.
They all think they are liberated modern women but will all learn the error of their ways when they find themselves In their mid thirties and forties without husbands and no one want to marry them and faced with no option but to be single mothers and passed on from one married man to another.

No man worth his salt marries a woman with a dodgy past. If you have one you keep it to yourself not advertise it.
Politics › Re: Budget Deficits Not Necessarily Bad – Tinubu Reacts To 2023 Appropriation by casualobserver:
aujile:
I agree with your points but...
No matter how good they are, if you fail to cut cost, you may still find it difficult to come out of the problem. Year in year out, our budget is always the same (a recurrent budget). More money is being spent on things that don't bring returns.
I just watched a replay of an interview on channels. Where a professor summed up one of the biggest problems with Nigeria.

He said the problem of Nigeria isn’t corruption, the problem of Nigeria is a low intellectual capacity. It is this low intellectual capacity that leads to corruption.

What he is basically saying is that Nigerians don’t think right. Our current total govt revenue is less than $30b a year, our 2023 budget is $49billion at the official rate. But in reality it is more like $24b. We need to find An extra $30-50b a year MINIMUM just to arrest the poverty rate and population growth. Apart from the wastage on subsidy, there is no govt saving Anywhere that will make any difference don’t let anybody deceive you playing to the gallery.

It is not saving that will help Nigeria it is innovative new sources of revenue. Anyone who hasn’t got the ability to raise revenues and innovative ways to finance our social and infrastructure deficits is deceiving you by telling you he will stop leakages and channel the money into development. How much leakage can you stop when your entire expenditure is $25b and you need an additional $50b a year?

Like The professor said the problem with Nigeria is intellectual deficit. If you raise an additional $50b….even $20b. Even if they steal half of it, you will feel the development in the economy.

Ps I am not advocating corruption waste or theft, I am just pointing out the real issues and the intellectual deficiencies in the wastage and savings argument.

Govt does not earn enough revenue for any plugging of leakages to make a difference.
Politics › Re: Budget Deficits Not Necessarily Bad – Tinubu Reacts To 2023 Appropriation by casualobserver:
Fujiyama:
^^^
You are still repeating the error sir. As long as Bola Tinubu has never been president, then you cannot describe him as shown above. You may describe him as being the most knowledgeable (on finance etc.) of all the leading aspirants (a highly debatable assertion) but you cannot include past presidents in the comparison because he has never been president.



^^^
Ok...I'm still trying to get what your point is...

I get the impression (correct me if I'm wrong) that you disagree with Peter Obi's decision to avoid debt. Do you believe his administration should have borrowed instead? And what kind of borrowing - local currency debt or foreign currency debt?
When you hear someone talking about avoiding debt or thinks being debt free is automatically a good thing or has an aversion to debt especially in a developing economy, it shows the person has no real understanding of wealth creation. Don’t be confused buying and selling especially when you have sole distributor ship for sale whole country will make you wealthy without really understanding wealth creation and finance especially public development finance.

Debt is an instrument of wealth creation. Debt for investment is good debt for consumption is bad. So when you talk about debt, you have to distinguish what kind of debt you are talking about. Debt to pay fuel subsidy is suicidal and it is the root of our problems under Buhari. The debt incurred on subsidy every year is enough to build 1 refinery a year! If he had incited debt to fix our refineries, we wouldn’t import fuel, forex demand will be less inflation would be lower and there would be less need for subsidy because we aren’t importing fuel. Debt to build rail roads and schools is good debt because it will pay itself with a more efficient economy a better educated population who will earn more and pay more taxes.

When I see someone with an aversion for debt for debt sake or who talks about saving and cutting wastage to fuel Nigerians growth, I know the person is not serious. The is only 1 way to solve Nigerians problems going forward. Raise revenues, stop subsidies and secure sources additional debt for development projects hopefully financed with increased taxes/ revenues. Anyone who thinks they can take Nigeria forward by cutting wastage is a clown. At most you save $1b a year. Nigeria needs to find $500-$1trillion over the next 10 years to arrest the rot. Your savings is not going to make a dent. Only carefully targeted debt investment and massive revenue increase can solve the problem.

Any clown telling you he won’t travel with entourage is just playing to the gallery, I am not saying he should not cut down on entourages but how much do entourage cost? I will sell this guest house, I will sell that guest house is just insulting the intelligence of those who have any. It is not the money you save from cutting down your entourage or cutting down the presidential fleet that will make any difference to the development of the country.


Obasanjo sold all govt official quarters only for the same govt to give allowances far in excess of what it costs to run those official quarters.


Elon musk is the richest man in the world he borrowed money to buy Twitter. Dangote is the richest black man in Africa, he borrowed money to build his refinery. They are both likely going to get richer as a result. There is debt and there is debt. When you hear someone talking about saving when you are undeveloped or having an aversion for debt for debt sake..trust me the person has no clue.

You need to find a way to raise revenues by or inject an average of $50b a year in the public and social infrastructure of the economy and someone is talking about savings….that’s a sign of small mindedness…..someone guaranteed to keep the country in poverty..
Politics › Re: Budget Deficits Not Necessarily Bad – Tinubu Reacts To 2023 Appropriation by casualobserver: 9:54pm On Jan 13, 2023
IbeOkehie:
Government investment almost always results in waste, corruption and inefficiency. Government can do nothing well.

So the best advice one can give to the next government is to give over the economy to the private sector and abolish all forms of price regulation, including forex regulation.

Thanks.
Wrong! The biggest mistake we make is to blindly follow whatever the latest fashionable economic model in the west.

Like I said earlier Obasanjo/Atiku privatized over 150 government owned companies under the guise that govt has no business in business.

Of all those companies Alaska steel, Ajaokuta, PAN, Nigerian airways, nepa nitel, etc etc how many of them are functioning now that they were sold at a pittance to private individuals? Most were sold for cents on the dollar and were asset stripped.

The problem isn’t govt owning companies, the problem is government managing companies. NLNG is an axample of a profitable efficient govt owned company..why because it is not managed by the govt.

We have lost many industries and many jobs and many assets because we bought into the western model. Firstly when you study economics you modify it to your environment. Secondly there are some industries that only govt have the funds to establish especially in a high interest rate environment.

Only govt can set up these industries. Govt should set them up and be a minority shareholder and let private sector mange them.

It is not that govt has no business in business it is that govt has no business managing businesses. So a model where govt finances the establishment of large scal industries as a minority partner. With management in the hands of the private sector technical/management partner with a stake in the business like NLNG.

If we are waiting for Oyinbo model to kick start our development without govt we will be here forever.
Politics › Re: Budget Deficits Not Necessarily Bad – Tinubu Reacts To 2023 Appropriation by casualobserver: 8:59pm On Jan 13, 2023
Fujiyama:
^^^

grin

Your statement is incorrect. He isn't president yet - and he may never be. Only time will tell.
ok he is the most knowledgeable on finance, budgeting and accounting of all past Nigerian presidents and the leading aspirants.

Obasanjo got us debt relief...to what avail? all the saving was looted with nothing to show in infrastructure...electricity zero, roads zero, refineries zero, rail zero...upon all he even sold over 150 govt owned companies. Peter Obi saved money for Anambra...to what avail? People who understand money, debt and budgeting know that for a country badly in need of development, you borrow as much as you can and invest in infrastructure and social programs. The more you borrow the less there is to steal, the more you save the more there is to steal. the more you borrow the more your successor have to engage their brains to generate revenue, the more you borrow the more you can invest in creating future wealth.

Ofcourse the caveat here is that so long as the borrowing is invested properly. However in the case of Nigeria, you save money you are just saving money for your succesor to loot without doing any work. If your successor is going to loot at least leave him/her with a debt burden (hopefully for visible infrastructure) so that if he want to loot he has to work to generate increased revenue, because debt is always deducted at source from FAAC.
Politics › Re: Budget Deficits Not Necessarily Bad – Tinubu Reacts To 2023 Appropriation by casualobserver: 7:46pm On Jan 13, 2023
Johnthejohn:
What does Tinubu know about budget huh
For all his flaws, He is the most qualified of all the Nigerian presidents to date on finance, budgeting and accounting.
Politics › Re: You’ve Lost Igbo Support Over 'Soaked Sliced Bread' Comment - SERG Tells Tinubu by casualobserver: 12:16pm On Jan 13, 2023
You cannot lose what you never had.
Politics › Re: Emefiele Has Serious Stakes In 12 Banks - Sahara Reporters by casualobserver: 12:11pm On Jan 13, 2023
All I know is that Emefiele is the worst governor in CBN history.
Politics › Re: I Never Wanted Third Term Presidency - Obasanjo by casualobserver: 9:43am On Jan 13, 2023
Curious345:
b4 we proceed .. are you chatting from Nigeria ?
Obasanjo has never endorelaed a good president and he has always opposed any good candidate. Just look at the people Obasanjo has backed and the people he opposed. He opposed Awo and Abiola, he endorsed Shagari, Yaradua, GEJ, Buhari and Atiku.

I rest my case.


Obasanjo will never endorse anyone that will outshine him, if you do t know that you don’t know the man.
Politics › Re: I Never Wanted Third Term Presidency - Obasanjo by casualobserver: 9:37am On Jan 13, 2023
Curious345:
Nigeria best leader ever . Rated next to Yar'adua..

He (Obasanjo) was good and he brought a good man to take over (Yar'adua)

Buhari is an error , yet he is bringing a vegetative Demented close to the grave balabluu to inherit his seat

What could be worse?
He is the worst ever! If you say Buhari is the worst, did he not endorse Buhari? Which president has Obasanjo endorsed that has done well? Shagari, yaradua, GEJ?
Politics › Re: Peter Obi's Presidential Campaign Rally In Nsukka (Photos, Video) by casualobserver: 5:55am On Jan 13, 2023
Alezy:
I understand what you're saying but worse come to worse there would be a run off. Because Tinubu will not get votes from the south (mark my words) the percentage he will get from the south will shock you. Forget these rallies my brother. He can also not defeat Atiku in the north.

You refer me once again to the last election where we have Buhari in the ballot and from a ruling party, how do you expect Atiku to win convincingly? Now it's an Atiku against A Tinubu in the north and you are projecting that Atiku wouldn't win states with wide margines?? Ha, you must really think so much about Tinubu.

If not that he is coming up using the ruling party, he won't even come out 3rd.

I am not still sure about Obi presence in the north but he will get votes that he needs from there in specific states.

He will win In the middle belt low margined or not but you see the SS/SE? Expect nothing less than a 80-90% victory.
You are being emotional.

There won’t be a run-off. Tinubu/APC was never strong in the SS and SE. so what happens there makes no difference to him. SS/SE is merely a redistribution of some Atiku votes to Obi. Whatever Atiku loses in the SS/SE he will make up in the North. Obi has no northern votes.


Obi will do well in Plateau and Benue and may even win, but win in a 3 horse race means he gets 35- 40% of the votes. The margin won’t amount to much in absolute terms. Obis margin of victory in Benue and Plateau will not amount to more than 200k votes max. Kogi and Kwara will reduce if not eliminate that for Tinubu.

Obi is not getting any meaningful votes North of the middle belt except maybe southern Kaduna…full stop! Whatever gain Ibi gets in the south will be wiped out by his lack of Northern votes.

If there is going to be a run off it will be between Atiku and Tinubu. I repeat nobody will win the South with a big margin over his rivals. Therefore it is your performance In the North that will determine the top 2. If you are not in the race in the North then there is no way you come 1st or second. Again nobody is winning the south with a huge margin. Middle belt is a wash so it is the North that will determine the president.

As far as a hypothetical run off, Apc can never come third. So a run off is either between Tinubu and Atiku or Tinubu and Obi. I cannot predict the result of aTinubu/Atiku runoff but Tinubu/Obi is a no contest….North will not vote for Obi!
Politics › Re: APC Receives More NNPP Decampees In Kano, Holds Rally In Kibiya LG by casualobserver: 8:26pm On Jan 12, 2023
Indispensable85:
Kano is fully Batified!
Ganduje is not playing.

Mynd44, oam4j, seun, nlfpmod
meanwhile some people do not have visa to enter North and they claim they will be president
Politics › Re: Peter Obi's Presidential Campaign Rally In Nsukka (Photos, Video) by casualobserver:
Alezy:
the only error you made in this your long data analysis is that you forgot all other elections happened when we had just 2 major parties contenting.

Now? We have 3. And the 3 people are from strategic areas who would want to vote for their own. You are still making the mistake using older election results to analyze what will happen. You are one of the many people this election results will shock.

* You think PMB is on the ballot. We're the whole north gave him their votes plus the sharing of middle belt and other zones.
* You still think the west who decided the 2015 election would be the decider
* You still think having block northern votes alone would win you the election of the whole of Nigeria.

1, If election rigging is minimized even to it's bearest minimum say 30%, those block votes will disappear.

2, Don't expect no block votes for any candidate from a region he isn't from. Which leave us with the middle belt deciding factor.

3, that north you're giving to APC. Atiku will shock you. OMG this election would be sweet. Northerners that I know would vote Tinubu as against Atiku?? I laugh�.

Note: it is only the northern christains that would wanna go sideways.

February isn't far
No i said it clearly that there were only 2 parties. it is even more difficult to win with any convincing margin when there are 3. which makes it even more important that you have states where you have no opposition...i.e you arent sharing votes.

it is even more difficult when the majority of voters Obi is cannibalising are PDP voters.

This is what is going to happen:

Obi will cannibalise PDP votes in the south enough to put him in the race but not enough to win the south. he will do well to come second in the south. Southern APC votes are largely intact because the kind of people who will vote for Obi would never have voted for APC anyway. Atiku will not win the south, he may not even come second.

Middle belt will be shared whoever wins will have a total margin for the whole region of not more than 200k votes

North: Obi has no hope here. it is a battle between Atiku and Tinubu. No matter what happens in the North obi will not have enough votes to become president. Even if he wins the middle belt and south he will win with a small margin and because he has no presence in the North, at least one of his opponents will quickly surpass him so he is as good as finished. Atiku will damage Tinubu here, the question is how much damage and will the damage be enough to overcome the damage Obi has done to him in the SS,SE and middle belt? I dont think so because for Obi to do well in the south and middle belt, it means Atiku has been decimated and comes with a huge deficit.

This may shock you but Atiku did not win ANY state in the North by more than 53% the last time. All the 11 states where he got more than 60% were all in the south...the very same states under threat by Obi

See below

Politics › Re: Peter Obi's Presidential Campaign Rally In Nsukka (Photos, Video) by casualobserver: 5:37pm On Jan 12, 2023
searchlight:
Lol you wasted lots of space to type crap, if you think that Tinubu will wing states like yobe, even Borno by 60 percent then you are still dreaming. Tinubu might not win any northern states apart from Borno state. Aside southwest Tinubu has no stronghold
says someone who thinks Obi can share votes from the south and Middle belt and become president without the North. I have just explained sharing/splitting of votes to you. you can win a state without winning, if you have no northern votes you have lost before the counting starts. that said

nobody is going to win the south convincingly, so even if as you say Tinubu has no votes in the North, then what you are saying is Atiku is the winner. Under no scenario can a southerner win without Northern votes because when your opponents start counting votes in the core North, you need to have ambulance on standby!.
Politics › Re: Peter Obi's Presidential Campaign Rally In Nsukka (Photos, Video) by casualobserver: 5:25pm On Jan 12, 2023
searchlight:
We are not banking on northern votes for him to be president.

Northerners are too timid to buy the idea of Obi presidency, they have been willing tools used by wicked politicians to catapult themselves to power.

Obi doesn't give Shishi but some poor northern almajiri just need #500 to sell their vote, they know nothing about the economic or the problems bedevelling the ZOO, they are not sure of living tomorrow so they just have to eat.

Obi just have to win the south convincingly, get reasonable votes from the North Central, get some votes from christian states in the north East and get christian votes from the north west that's going to be enough.

Let the other thieves go share thier loots to almajiri, las last the votes will be shared among three candidates. Las las we will calculate.
you cannot win without Northern votes simple as!! ...and he isnt winning the south either!! Nobody is winning the south convincingly!! Middle belt will be marginal for APC or PDP, that leaves the North to decide and if yoy have no presence in the North you better start writing your concession speech.
Health › Re: UNIZIK Lecturer Delivered Of Sextuplets Seeks Help As Hospital Bills Her N19M by casualobserver: 5:17pm On Jan 12, 2023
correctguy101:
Then brother..

What should be done in this situation?
did they ask me when they were making the babies...educated people...a whole lecturer?
Politics › Re: Peter Obi's Presidential Campaign Rally In Nsukka (Photos, Video) by casualobserver:
Alezy:
This is why Inec us projecting a rerun. From the look of things, everybody will win their zones. It's just unfortunate for Atiku cos kwankwaso will divide the norht with him. And then we have the northern christains and Igbo people.

Whoever middle belt votes massively for will win the election. And as it stands, PO has upper hand there
Nigerians tend to talk out of ignorance without looking at the data. The middle belt has never been an election decider and the most inconsequential zone in Nigeria. Why? because the middle belt vote is always split. Every major party does well in the Middle belt such that whoever wins does not win by much even when there were only 2 main contenders. Go and check the election results for the middle belt going way back to the days of Zik/Awo/balewa/shagari.

If I get 500k votes and you get 450K, yes I won that state but all that state has contributed to my overall victory is 50k votes out of 950k available voters. Do you now understand the inconsequence of marginal states....they are not king makers! Elections are decided by states where you command 80-90% majority. look at 2019 for instance just one relatively small voter state...Yobe wiped out the victory of PDP in ALL the middle belt states.

many of you do not understand elections. Elections are not won by the number of votes you get in a state, they are won by the cumulative difference between your votes and the opponents! if you get 2m votes in a state and I get 1.95 million, your 2m votes do not help you become president especially if despite losing, I have a state where I have 700k votes and you only get 70K.

it really is amazing how naive, ignorant and uninformed Nigerians are about the mathematics of elections especially that elections are basically arithmetic.

in 2019 Atiku won Adamawa with only 38k votes out of a total votes of approx 800k despite 410k people voting for him

In Benue the difference was 9,000 votes (i repeat nine thousand votes) out of a total of 700k votes and 356k Atiku votes...technically Atiku won

in Nassarawa Buhari won by only 6,000 votes,

In kwara Buhari won by 178K, Plateau out of 1m votes PDP only won by 80k votes

and so on and so forth.

Add all the PDp victories in the middle belt and just 1 small state of Yobe wiped out all their gains...why? because Yobe votes were not shared....out of 547k votes in Yobe, 497 went to Buhari and 50k to Atiku, leaving Buhari with a margin of 447k to absorb defeats in other states. the irony is that Yobe has less voters than each of all the middle belt states, yet powerful enough to wipe out whatever happens in a whole region......because the votes are shared!! i hope you understand now why Tinubu won the election the minute Obi left PDp and declared for LP...he shared the votes making it difficult for either himself or PDp to have stronghold states and impossible for either him or PDP to win.

so the key to victory is having states where your votes are not shared. that is why Tinubu will win the election 1st ballot.

Traditionaly stronghold states of PDP like SS/SE will be shared with Obi voters diluting the margin of victory in those states. APC are the only party with their core stronghold states relatively intact, states like Yobe, Borno. if Obi cannot dent APC in the North he is not winning this election, trust me because the states he will win or do well will be marginal. Even in the SE he will contend with PDP. who is contending with APC in states Borno and Yobe?

Dont forget, i said small Yobe state with only 500K votes wiped out PDP's entire gain in the middle belt without even using the bazooka Borno votes.

lease look at the data before you talk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election.


For those who do not understand english, you win a presidential election by adding the difference between you and your opponent in one state and all the other states and whoever is ahead is the winner. so if you are winning states by 20k 8k, 40k when your opponent is winning states by 700k, 900k, 1m....you are not in the race!!! if you get 1m votes in a state and your opponent gets 900k or 1.1m, you are not heading to Aso rock unless you have states that will give you 500k, 700k, 1m difference between you are your opponents. it is not the number of votes you get that matters but the difference!

Obi has no nothern presence so by definition he is out of the race before it starts, his only effect in this race is to make Atiku not win

States cannot be giving your opponents 1m, 1.5m 1.7 m difference and you have no states to deliver that for you and you expect to win. Emotions aside, it is mathematically impossible!
Health › Re: UNIZIK Lecturer Delivered Of Sextuplets Seeks Help As Hospital Bills Her N19M by casualobserver: 4:08pm On Jan 12, 2023
you cant afford to deliver them, how will you raise them? Are you going to again appeal to the public when it is time for school fees?
Politics › Re: Peter Obi's Presidential Campaign Rally In Nsukka (Photos, Video) by casualobserver: 4:04pm On Jan 12, 2023
Well done but it is not nsukka or SE voters that will make him president. Let us see his crowd in Katsina, Kano, Maiduguri, Kaduna, Ilorin, Jigawa, Yobe, Kabba, etc. In short anywhere North because crowd yourself all you like in the south especially SE, without Northern votes no presidency for any southern candidate and vice versa no Northerner can win without southern votes!!!
Politics › Re: Okupe Leaves EFCC Office, Reacts To Arrest by casualobserver: 1:30pm On Jan 12, 2023
Mrkumareze:
He's a wealthy man, if na poor man he ll be released after one month, without apology .
Wealthy man chopping campaign funds
Politics › Re: DSS Arrests Doyin Okupe At MMIA, Lagos by casualobserver: 11:24am On Jan 12, 2023
PrinceOfLagos:
Anybody found to be corrupt should be picked up including Bola Tinubu
The key is in the emboldened. Peter Obi was accused of many financial improprieties including $115m Dasukigate (google fidelity bank, nnamdi Okonkwo and Diezani) and N200m cash found in the boot of his aide’s car. He wasn’t convicted or found to be corrupt so he is roaming free….same with Tinubu. Okupe on the other hand is a convicted felon!!!

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