₦airaland Forum

ckenneths:
For me charts give me headaches, I have always been a student of the 'common sense' approach to investing, and trading, I don't want to make the type of issue I had while arguing in a thread in stockmarketnigeriam
.Com, called investing vs trading. And please
don't give me a loan to trade stocks even without charging me interest, I am better making mistakes and learning from it all with my own cash.

I agree, that debate is best left alone. I'm not against margin trading but I have not gathered enough liver to try it.  

windywendy:
keep the daily fsdhh reports in different worksheets  . Naa, the file will become too large then. I used to keep track of volumes by just copying and pasting from the FSDH reports, but lost track of that one when I got real busy. I think what i'll just do is format easi's report to align with the fsdh one and then copy and paste the latest volumes column from then on, unless there's an easier way. Easimoni?

Wendy,
My table is from FSDH's report. Just start from Afprint and copy the volumes down. Paste in my worksheet and enjoy! Note there is a formula to sum up total volumes at the bottom of my sheet that some may find useful. The only time you run into problems is when a new stock is introduced (insert column(s) at the right place in my worksheet)  or renamed/relocated (Intercontinental WAPIC).

Due to popular request (initiated by Naijadr), find attached 2007 volumes by company.


_{Cost is $5 per download.}  

@ yodi,

I don't do POs so I'm not bothered who they sell the shares to. I'll look in detail to see HOW they'll grow profits. If I'm convinced, I'll buy off the floor.

@ Frank
Excel 2003 Bible
Excel 2002 Power Programming with VBA

Both books were authored by John Walkenbach

BTW, I thought you'd be canvassing more actively for Nairalanders to buy the Zenith PO through you. We should be helping you meet/pass your target. Na guys like you carry this thread for a looooong time.

yodiyokun:
@Pumping,
Hmm this costain people sha ambitious ooo.
They are overbloating the number of their shares?? what da. By the end of this offer they will have about x7 of their current listed shares.
They are even offering more to existing shareholders?  I never read finish but on cursory glance ? I am skipping this one.

The "Koko" of this offer is the FY March 2009 results. By then the, the PE at the offer price will be 7.7 and at the market price it will be 11.4. This offer should be very appealing to anyone willing to wait to mid-09; how can you pass up a coy that's planning on tripling it's profits after the current year. I may just start buying off the floor. Will read the details first though.

MyPeace:
@all

please where else can i check the daily price, nigeriansecurities didnt update their site today.

http://www.nsepro.com/nigeria%20stock%20market/nigerian%20stock%20exchange%20full%20daily%20report.asp

http://www.nsepro.com/

aktopgun:
ladies and gentlemen,
please allow me to introduce u'all to OLUWATAMILORE TOBECHUKWU

born 4.46am 12/12/07, 3.5kg.

mother and child alive and well, father is beat!!!

now i know why jewish men wake up every morning and thank god he didn't make them women, no be yam.
i have a whole new level of respect for my wife now.

thank you to all the fellas on nairaland for all the support.

And the journey begins.

Eh ya! Congrats my guy! Make you go open account for the lil one o. Never too early  

Tmoni, na ya face be this?

barge:
@ Hablas spanish ? tengo un regalo para ti y pumping !

Poco! Send it to my email. easimoni2004 at yaoo dot com

chokit:
What do you advise i do in this case of Diamond bank GDR dragging the price down to 16.50. I placed an order on monday for purchase on the floor at a price limit of 18.98 thinking the price might rise after the closure of the GDR.Looking like i have misfired isn it ! Actually the price fell from monday till now to 18.50 but my broker hasnt signify if the order is executed or not,i have also sent a mail requesting confirmation.

Kindly advise do i cancel the order or leave it.

Easimoni you are on please say a word.

I've placed an order to buy;  Hope that's enough to convince you. Yes the GDR may hold it back some more but "you can't keep a good stock down" _{Hmmm, maybe I should copyright that phrase} . It think Diamond bank (as of today) has both strong fundamentals and technicals. I'd rate it a BUY.

grabdaloot:
I am willing to bet you my last dime that easimoni is an engineer, we all know ourselves when we meet.

Yup Chemical and Petroleum engineer! Good guess.

Talktrue:
Na for this kain things I need una expertise. What the likely effect of the GDR on diamond. Read something about the GDR translating to 16.50 and that its going to drag the price down.

Rightly stated: at N120 to 1 USD, Diamond's GDR was N16.50 per share. Still the forward PE at N18.50 is below 20 based on the 6 month result and I think the FY will be more than 2X the 6 month. This is a fundamentally sound bank that seems to be oversold. Still, as u stated, the GDR seems to hinder most stocks

@ talktrue, how do you want me to "bless" u

easimoni2004 (at) yahoo dot com

@ grabdaloot, nice work. But you bought Intercontinental! I have one bank in mind with an RSI approaching 40. Been trading sideways for 4 months (shouldn't say the name b4 Pumping's zillions change the stock ). MACD and SMAs show no divergence. What do u think as a short-term tech trade? _{Okay it's Diamond bank}.

yodiyokun:
any of the technical analysts read any of John Murphys books?

I wonder how good they are?

Read thru Amazon; his books got the best review. Will be buying the one in my last post.

Olonzo:
@ Easimoni
I beg where do you get the chart for NSE stocks, or is this derived from your own data.
PS na my in-law be your acc manager for Lead Capital so better corporate otherwise  

Small world. Have not met her but she seems like a very pleasant and committed person. I've changed my mind about switching brokers coz of her.

Wanaj0 provided the price history and a work colleague provided the volumes history (2007 only). I programmed the data in Excel to generate the indicators. With all the data that flew around nairaland in the past 2 weeks, my s.sheet is now over 22MB! And it's still a work-in-progress.

yodiyokun:
The book may probably be out of print? but anyone with access to amazon should be able to get a used copy hopefully

I found it on Amazon but the review of it was not flattering. Turns out it speaks only about chart patterns and not about RSI, MACD and the like. Seems those indicators were invented after the author wrote this book. Thinking about settling for "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications" by John Murphy. It seemed to get mostly solid reviews on Amazon.

yodiyokun:
@ Easimoni and @Grab a loot

I just have 1 more week to go be4 i head of to vacation - I beg you go teachme this RSI well well oo.

@Easimonni, how do you have time to do all this studying, Its amazing

Any little thing that is said on this forum - you pick it up and within a few days you are giving us lecture? ? Why I no get your kind brain

My oga go soon call me to tell me my ranking is going down; that's why I have time 4 y'all.   Just kidding o. My ranking no go go down, l'agbara Jesu!

Anyway, sign up with Investopedia and download this article. The calculations and application of RSI and other indicators is included. If you join, you can downlad it as a PDF and take it on vacation with you (as any Efiko would  ). Read it on your flight (assume you are flying). Enjoy. then come back make we discuss how we fit use am make money.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/indicator_oscillator/

Femtex:
Mr easimoni,
How body, How work

Body dey for cloth. This dramatic change of weather for your town na something o! Leather jacket one day, t-shirt the next, rain coat the day after! O ga ju!

grabdaloot:
for anyone that is interested, "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits by R Schabacker" really nice reading if you really want to understand technicals

Good, I've found my xams present to myself. Muchas gracias.

grabdaloot:
if it was for fundamentals alone i wouldn't touch INTERCONT with a ten-foot pole (PE is about 45), 19b shares outstanding, an investors nightmare, but looking at the RSI chart just now I see it still has some way to go might possibly get to N40. Present RSI is about 65 so it still has some way to go before it gets to 85. My suspicion, is that the stock is being manipulated to get to N40 and then, yes you guessed right tech.suspension for reconstruction. The mgmt of the bank is too wise to know that they can't handle 19+ billion shares. So just be careful there so you don't get caught out.

Grabdaloot has a point. Look at Nov 07 on the chart, the RSI is at 40 and the MACD is trending up towards the signal line; both "buy" signals. As he said, the RSI is now 65 (thank God O! I still sabi book   ) as shown by the last point on the chart. Dunno who is moving the stock, but it all fits.

Going through the last 12 months for most stocks on the NSE, if the RSI hits 40, it has a 50/50 chance on going on a 25%+ bull run. Grabdaloot; na so in your experience?  

blest:
i see u really do your homework but the thing about all this analysis to me is how u are able to translate it to become a money spinner.i don't even use RSI yet (intend to sturdy it this weekend) but men with the infomation i have am able make some good money.i give u an example,in the house nobody has been saying anything bout intercontinental but in some few days i have made over half million and still counting.We can do all the maths but let it translate.

I believe "grabdaloot" gave a good example of the use of RSI. If a stock has been gaining 5% for days, but it if the RSI is still low, don't buy if the RSI has hit 75. What more do you want?  I don't subscribe to specific buy/sell instructions (homwork, homework). Let's bring the use of the indicator up for discussion instead of asking asking users/"gurus" to feed us.

I'd like to see if it is indeed useful of if I just wasted my time and two Excel textbooks

grabdaloot:
blest,

My understanding is that you select a stock to invest in based on fundamentals and but you decide on when to invest in that stock based on technical evaluation. Going a few threads back I see that easimoni posted some charts, that was awesome especially the RSI you see in the NSE, all stocks experience a turn around when the RSI gets to about 85. It is a function of the volume traded, loss/gain. The modified RSI incorportes the number of deals per day of the stock, losing stocks depending on the industry they are classified in hold out at about 30-25 or even turn around. so lets assume I want to buy a stock and it is gaining 5% everyday I will check out the RSI chart for that stock if it is still about 40 or 50 then I will buy but if it is approaching 75 I will back-off. So you see, that I love grabbing the loot doesn't mean that I don't do my homework. I do it very well. You can quote me on this one "RSI WORKS" people have made hundreds of millions in the NSE from it

Abeg, jist me some more O! I only just started calculating the thing (finished a couple of days ago), not yet used it on the NSE.

VIPICO:
Easimoni, this is kindda confusing. I thought you guys had earlier put a sale recommendation on CILeasing?

Nope, I didn't say so. I said it was too early to buy and then the 9 months came out and the market jumped! I think it's a good stock but a bit too expensive right now. But if the growth continues in triple digits, It will look cheap 6 months from now.

My plan is to bite the bullet and start to buy now. If the price comes down, good; I'll simply average down

FatherOF2:
Its interesting, Most of us here are engineers.How come?.

Ratios, trends, charts, signals, acronyms, Excel spreadsheets, forecasting, percentages Engineers are at home in the market. I have friends who get headaches when I start talking about the market. + We are an ultra-competitive bunch by nature; always looking to "beat the market" at anything.

shigidi:
@ easimoni,
if youre out there. how work now?, hope your body dey cool sha. i never hear from you for some time.
i want to know ure views on the insurance sector as a whole, im loving UNIC right now, but do you think next year will be the insurance year, do u think they can enter double figures then.
BTW, i finished 2003 chemical engineering in unilag, last time i was there susu was still there as well as dr. kehinde. just thought id let u know.
holla back oga.

I knew there was something CORRECT  about you! I visited last in 2003. Gisted with Gimba and Dr Ajayi.

Per Insurance, no doubt in my mind at least 5 of them will break 10 sometime next year.

BTW, Heroes ended the 2007 fall season. A Little disappointing but Sylar got his powers back so the 08 season should pick up some.

pumping777:
Offer - 120.1% oversubscription of 375,265,870 shares = 0.45B

Rights - 101.8% oversubscription of 115,691,506 shares = 0.117B

Giving us a total of around 0.567B.

If 2007 PAT is meant to be 200M then forward PE is 36.51 ---- Right??

They had better deliver more than 200M.  

2007 YE was in Sept so it's TRAILING PE (36.5). Foward PE is ~ 24 as next PAT ~ 300M. As you said, they must beat these forecasts.

pumping777:
My figure is now =6.978+8.521+3.8+1.18 = 20.48B

----------------
We propose that a total of 353,783 Application Forms for 8,521,839,138 units at a total value of N126,975,403,156.20 be approved for allotment.
The over-subscribed units of the Offer up to 3,800,000,008 units will be accepted.

Also 1.18B units for conversion of debts to equity.
--------------

Pumping, I think the 3.8B is in addition to the 4.721B they asked for. Total PO is 3.8+4.7=8.521

New GRAND total is 6.978+8.521+1.18 = 16.679B

Pumping, any idea on how many DEAP shares will be listed?


All, see the DEAP prospectus below. PAT for YE Sept. 07 was forecasted at ~200M

http://www.africanselect.com/www/ipo/17530/DEAP_PROSPECTUS_FINAL.pdf

FatherOF2:
Right now my radar is full.This is positioning time.I've seen one or two who have been making consistent gradual drops based on a Thursday-friday evaluation and over a two week period.This week and next are good to position.Sallah holiday/Christmas will provide opportunities.
I'm eyeing one building material company(i no wan mention e name)(i wan make e still drop).I want to offload it by february next year and enter GTB.

This is some serious comic relief!! Yarn now, make I fire the thing! too much cash for pocket.

FatherOF2:
Men this your chart strong oh.I no understand one TIN for am.

LOL!! I'm still laughing.   We talked about building technical analysis tools/knowledge to see if it would be useful on the NSE. I did some Excel based analysis/programming thanks to data supplied by Wanaj0 and a colleague. If you would like to know what RSI, OBV, MACD, SMAs blah, blah, blah mean, read the article below.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/indicator_oscillator/

Since no one has come up with a useful software, I've built my own. Still a work-in-progress.

barge:
Anyone watching niger ins ? its done 4.6% for three straight days.

9 month results in the offing? The increase in PAT over the 2nd half of 2006 was dramatic! Could be interesting. Nothing on the Tech Charts to suggest it was oversold. Major volumes (esp on +ve days) have been moved since mid-Nov. Signs of an institutional investor buying?

_{And yes, I've been studying Tech Analysis. See chart below}

pinokio:
in september during the skye shelter fund offer skye bank promised that they would make sure the stock is listed on the Nigerian stock exchange for tradin within 3 months. 3months and 11 days after the offer we've still not heard a peep out of them. am i the only one thats bothered, or is there something they don't want to tell us? make them no let my anger grow annoyed oh!

Try asking your broker if he's heard anything. I have the prospectus and there is no contact info. The offer didn't get much traction here. I don't think many people were sold on the concept.

[quote author=Mr. Cee link=topic=31554.msg1760043#msg1760043 date=1197390411]If this is always the case people that held stocks for so long and wanted to offload might come to this forum and announce them here and wait for the price to move up then they can cash out.[/quote]That's why you do your homework! Don't buy based solely on gist. (I've been burned a couple of times: Livestock esp.)

ME, I still get CASH o! Wetin man go buy? If I put a price limit, my broker will not see to buy. If I don't, I'm almost guaranteed to buy at the max, if at all. I don tire. And I MUST spend it all by xmas. Nairalanders have hijacked AG Leventis, UPL, C&I, and Beta Glass.

Shig! What do we do now?