₦airaland Forum

pumping777:
Beat me ke?? I don dey buy my UBA since December. Already over 10% of my portfolio. I asked for more units today but no confirmation yet. You fit beat me to that one sha  

I was just about to say! No be you (and me) recommend UBA just 2 weeks ago? I'm a bit bummed my 'folio is so spread out; I couldn't HIT UBA as I should have. Win some, lose some.

Anyone impressed at the speed with which UBA, Zenith and Oceanic all brought out results that closed 7 days ago? Mind-blowing. I hope tis a sign of things to come. No more manipulation of the market by timing releases.  

windywendy:
Chams! Well what can I say? With the way I was talkin’ talkin’ talkin’ this weekend while jumping up and down in my seat and doing all the hand gestures, my hubby just had to conclude that any deal that gets his wifey this excited has gat ta be made in heaven!   Amazing, amazing amazing! There is one BIG risk though, pay attention to page 45. oh oh, my boss just came in gotta run, Will give my analysis on this one later today.  Bye guys!

@ Easimoni, forget orient, this one's better.

Orient? My memory is very short? Did I really recommend it?   I'm changing my middle name to Chams!

harrisoft:
@fatherof2
dec17th from you and wanaj0 got to know about Vitafoam, did 14days RSI on it got 32.6 gave buy order on friday 21st got it at N8.8 watch it's RSI till it hit 74.6 gave sell order by friday (thur/fri rule) got at N11.1 about 17% after broker shop e own. my volume was not too much hope to have higher volume next time.

Harrisoft, nice trade but note RSI is not foolproof. Also, I've noticed the 9-day RSI is more sensitive and generates more buy/sell signals than the 14-day RSI. But a 14-day signal should carry more weight if/when it shows up.

Nice one though, I need to join the club.

Anyone notice Deap drop today on large volumes? I hope this is the start of a significant retracement. Consult Ikeja Hotels chart for an analogue.

If you are new to tech analysis, please download and read the following investopedia article.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/indicator_oscillator/

If you have not read something on Tech analysis, you will not be able to interpret the charts

Please do not post kudos/gbosas or topics of other interests here. I intended for this thread to be a resource for getting people up and running ONLY. I'd like to keep it short so things are easy to find. If you have any questions about a particular stock (even if it is a technical question), please go to the most popular thread on nairaland and you'll get an answer. Please don't discuss buy/sell issues.

If you have problems installing, loading data, or navigating/tweaking the software, feel free to post here so we can address and improve

To use AptiStock

ON the left panel, select "Files", double-click on NNSE and select any stock. Some charts will come up. To change the type of chart, select the triangle next to VOL and a list of available curves will pop up. Select one and choose "replace".

If, for example, you'd rather see 14 day RSI instead of 11, go to "Tools"/"Indicator Parameter Settings". Under Main Chart Indicator or Sub Chart Indicator, you can tune any indicator to your preference. A brief tutorial on each indicator is even displayed!

Now that you have the NSE OLHC/Volume data (named NNSE to avoid confusion with AptiStock's Indian NSE), go through the following steps to import the file.

"Tools"
"Data Downloader"
Under Data Destination, check "Other Market" and input the market name NNSE

Select "Import" at the bottom of the window and the "Import Data from EOD Data File" will come up.
Under "File Select", click on "Browser"
Change file type to "Comma Separated File (*.csv)"
Find the place you saved the NNSE file (which you must have unzipped) and select it.
Click "open"
Back on the "Import Data from EOD Data File" window, click "Import"


AptiStock will spend some time loading the data and creating a CSV file for every stock. Repeat the import process when you get new data and it will append new data to existing stocks. It will also create new symbols for new stocks

Congrats! Your data is now loaded.

SavvyLanre/Big Jay were kind enough to provide us with open, high, low, close and volume data for all stocks dating back to April 2007. Please let us know if you have data dating back even further. Note this file is only valid till Jan 02, 2008. I will post updated files once a week starting next week.
Download the file here

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=A8P3GNBA

If you wish to update the file by yourself, use an excel macro that Man Jiro wrote. You can find it here and it contains instructions for use.

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-31554.8896.html#msg1814156

We have seen an increased interest in technical analysis in the last few months. Excel spreadsheets have been too difficult to develop or too cumbersome to maintain. And they certainly aren't as aesthetically pleasing as some professional packages.

I know of one website and one software developer working on tech analysis software tailored to the NSE, but in the meantime, you can work with AptiStock (kudos to naijadr for the hook-up). It's free software you can download here:

http://www.aptistock.com/

Once you download and install (and yes it worked on my vista machine), go to "Setting" and select "Add/Remove Stock Market". Deselect all the listed markets (unless you wish to use the software to monitor any of the listed markets).

In your windows explorer go to

C:\Program Files\AptiStock\Data

Delete all the data files/folders in there (it will only confuse and clutter your software)

You are now ready to upload data from the NSE and become a tech analyst.

loma:
Minimum number of units you can buy in Chams is 40,000 units= N1m

Prof Akinde(Chairman Chams) used to be my mentor back in Ife, when he was the HOD, but I have not spoken to him in years, make I go buy new year present, collect invitation to participate.

Abeg, collect one for all Nairalanders. As as kevyn politely pointed out, you are missing one zero.

bigjay01:
You might want to ask your broker, but I think the CHAMS PP is by invitation only. It is stated in the first couple of pages

So it says. Anyone have any idea who/how I can ask for a placement letter? I'd like to be one of the "select group of Investors" on pg 4

@grabdaloot,
u are my guy and the 1st to send us down the RSI etc path, but Chellaram? The stock is soooo sound but moved >50k units only 15 times in the past 12 months. The free float must be very small because the outstanding shares are more than NGC's. If we could get in, we would. Are the planning a PO?

@ Barge,
thanks, will add the book to my library.

@ Invisible!,
I would have slammed Unity a few weeks ago but an upcoming PO (and the results that must be released to curry interest) changes the game. It 's still not a fundamental stock, results are soooo overdue it makes one wonder, but I'm willing to throw,say, 3% of my folio at it in case the gist is true. It's def not a stock I'd recommend otherwise.

bigjay01:
@Madam

which means u got this gist and kept it your yourself?

u worry oooooohhhhh

filling out my mandate as I am posting (LOL)

I can type faster than you O! _{LOL even harder} Brokers around Lagos will be inundated with Unity bids on Monday!

barge:
With due respect to Father of 2 , you can add MONDAYS as sell-off days too , got this from a book, Trading for a Living . The Thursday - friday is also written there and explained.

Can you expand? I'd like to know what the book says are good buy days and why. Same for sell days. I know it depends on the trend from previous days, but some more info would be nice.

@ fatherof2,

this your "Friday" theory na something else. I must admit warming up to it. Almost all buying will be done on Fridays from this day forward.

@ Timmi,
Welcome to the forum and I don't mean to be condescending but your analysis is slightly flawed; Oceanic has 10.6B shares you have not added to your analysis. The 10.6B shares are from the last PO and will share in future profits. Expect the PE to double as soon as those shares are listed (sometime in the next couple of months). I wouldn't touch Oceanic with a ten-foot pole, not with a PE in the 40s post-PO shares listing.

Don't make the mistake of failing to account for new shares. It's always a game changer. Infact, I add the PO shares to my spreadsheet the day I see the prospectus and update the qty when the (inevitable) oversubscription is announced.

Enjoy.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1817547#msg1817547 date=1199382846]@ all, does any body know where orient petroleum has its site? I can go there and give us all a sitation report.[/quote]This article says it is situtaed in Nsugbe-Umuleri, on the eastern bank of the Anambra River in Anambra State.

http://www.thenewsng.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=3950

hispy99:
Is this not the same Orient pp that was only 5% subscribed the last time? I have not read the prospectus yet, but I am curious as to what has changed between then and now. If institutional investors did not find it exciting then, what has changed now?

Good question! When was the previous PP? I assume the difference now could be linked to actual construction that should be ongoing. EPC contracts have been signed and maybe invisible will tell us how far they've gone. With bricks on the ground, Institutions may be swayed.

FatherOF2:
i really wonder how many longtermers still remain for this thread.

Na you cause am!  
[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1817536#msg1817536 date=1199382607]@easimoni, baba my respects! But don't you think some other poeple will be stuying that last year trend and are goading us in to believe the same trend patterns and just sweep the carpets off our feets at the last minute?[/quote]Usually, a strategy works less and less with time. Ultimately it won't work anymore and we'd say it's an effieent market. NSE has a looong way to go. Still quite a few inefficiencies to profit from.

Geees:
@Fof2
Please recommend book(s) on Technical Analysis (TA) one can read?
I think have asked you about this before, if nothing no worries am just trying to learn abit more,
The NSE is definitely heading toward there if not takers will move it there _{if not how will teachers of TA make money}
Cheers

Technical Analysis of Financial Markets by John J Murphy is supposed to be the bible. Got myself a copy and it's pretty easy to follow.

shigidi:
@ pumping, easimoni, i know you guys have access, if we exit tomorrow, WHAT THE HELL DO WE BUY?? looking at diamond or even UBA ,MAKE UNA CONTRIBUTE ABEG.

Got out of Access today, bought some UBA already. Will buy more if my cash balance is significant. Still think the bears are a couple of weeks away.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1817468#msg1817468 date=1199381542]I think this bullish run is about to fade away for a few profit takers to do a little dance this early in the year.
The momentum traders are advised to keep cash ready for a pounce as things move south.

Like someone said earlier, UBA make a good buy at the moment.[/quote]Been studying last yr's momentum to see if a trend arises; 2007 started on a bullish note and the bulls ran unabated till valentine's day (awon boys needed money for flowers mybe?). The NSE index did not flatten out till mid-march.

Plot the RSI for the NSE Index in 07 and you'll see what I mean. You'll also see an intersting trend develop in the 2nd half of 2007: a bullish week, then a few days of "calm", then a bearish week. 6 such cycles showed V V clearly in the second half of 07 on an NSE Index RSI plot.

UBA is a good buy. Wonder why the institutions have not moved in yet.

bigjay01:
@Guys

Find attached the Orient petroleum PP documents.

Gurus - dissect for us please

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2DV9X89I

Thanks for sharing this  . I'm VERY interested. Will most likely participate.
ON the plus side; the board seems to be a good mix of technocrats and "clean(er)" politicians. Having a state govt hold a 5% stake is also a good thing. Means the govt won't be out to frustrate you. A PE of 2 and dividend yield of 25% is CRAZY.

Downside: no history (plant takes off in 2009), very little to no growth expected once the plant takes off, no NSE listing anticipated any time soon means no exit opportunity.

I think my decision hinges on how much progress they've made on gound (anyone know?), but I'm leaning toward throwing a couple % of my folio at them. Expect 100 to become 1000 if/when they list and hit the forecast. Otherwise, u can collect N25 dividend (per N100 share), till further notice.

Bigjay: u da man!

lumidii:
Kudos to all on here. Its a shame the APTISTOCK software isn't compatible with VISTA, only XP and WINDOWS 2000. Is there any way round this compatibility issue?, would one have to wait for an updated version that would be VISTA compliant?
Many thanks

If it's not Vista compliant, it's DOA for me. LAptop runs vista

Shig,
I think it may just be easeir to move to the APISTOCK software as some on this thread have reommended. Excel takes toooo long to learn and apply to the market + it is way too cumbersome to update.

Pumping/Man Jiro/Najiadr,
could someone repost (or start a new thread containing) all the resources to get up and running with APISTOCK; location for download, macros, etc.

WOW! What a start to 08 by the NSE; only 16 stocks dropped points! Hope this continues for a while. I'm a lil ticked off my broker failed to act on several buy orders last week so I'm still sitting on some cash watching my "buys" go off.   Anyway, can't win them all.

blueband:
I hear Firstbank is willing to pay interest on all returned monies.It's in todays champion

FBN is going to return 220B. If they give everybody just 5% interest, they just signed away one-third of their profits. I don't see it happening.

@ grabdaloot,

All 3 reasons you gave are valid. They all came togther to precipitate one of the best bull runs in NSE history. I don't see that many shares repeating the feat in 2008. However, the NSE is still undervalued relative to most markets around the world; I won't get uncomfortable until a PE of 40 becomes the norm. Besides, companies in the NSE have earnings growth rates that justify PEs well above 40 (average earnings growth rate in the US is ~12%) so any market downturn will be short-lived.


Happy new year to all.

blueband:
I bought Lasaxo last month and I have seen it make an extra 1.40.Should I sell now or hold on.Does anyone think the bull run will continue?

Japaul appears resistant at 8 naira.Will it go beyond 8 naira?I am kind of new to this and most of my investments have been from the tips I get here.

Japaul: my guess is it's gone as far as it'll go. It's trading at forward PE of 44 and N8 seems to be a solid resistance. Take your profit.

Lasaco: all my tech indicators say Lasaco is well into the "overbought" (means overpriced) region. + it's selling at a forward PE of 28. If you are in for the long-term, keep it, if not, sell and get back in later or buy something else. You've made good profit already.

Good news! I hope the ban goes into effect and affects the insurance industry as well. I don't understand why the SEC lets you sell an offer based on a 3 yr forecast and then approves another offer in 18 months. Best thing is to mandate that POs should be placed 3 years apart. And excess money should be returned at 5% more than the prevailing interest rate. Companies only understand financial penalties.

jungle700:
Can someone in the house please give a breakdown of Access bank allotment of the just concluded public offer? I will like to know if they are returning money to prospective investors? I don tire with all this return of money , From now on I think I will just stick with only secondary market.

Pumping posted the access allotment 3 weeks ago. Here is the link again

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2DY0H1ZB

yodiyokun:
@Easimoni and @Grabdaloot.

I tried computing RSI for First Bank - just to see if I understand whats up

I have attached the spreadsheet for your review - please confirm if I am on the right track or I have done jargon?

Yodi, you calculated it right but I have included a second sheet that does it in four columns instead of 8.

Stock /Forward PE

C&I Leasing/34.3

Upside: Okay, I can read your thoughts; "the forward PE is too high". If the growth rate of 200% continues into 2008, the forward PE will drop to ~12 after the FY Jan 08 results are released. If the growth rate slows to 100%, the forward PE will drop to ~17.

Downside: the FY result is not expected till June 2008; there may not be a major rally in share price (relative to the market) till then.

Bottom line: this is a classic growth stock with a PEG of ~0.2. You should expect this to double market performance in 2008


Law Union and Rock/20.2
Upside: A turnover of N900M and PAT of N260 in the 3rd Q of 07 projects to a PAT of N800 for the FY 2007 and I predict a PAT of >N1.4B for the FY 2008. The N2.5+B raised from the 2006 PO should go a long way towards helping them grow. Also see some recent good press below

http://businessdayonline.com/Insurance/62.html

http://www.silobreaker.com/DocumentReader.aspx?Item=5_805241609

Downside: I expect all Insurance coys will return to the primary market in 2008. Law should be one of the first. A PO will dilute value. Also, FY 2007 result is not expected till 2nd half of 2008.

Bottom line: another classic growth stock with a PEG of ~ 0.1. Will more than double market performance (ex PO), but try not to get caught by TS.


Unic Insurance/20.2

Upside: raised N2B from the 06 offer. Coy has partnered with AIG (Man U for life!) and now have an AIG guy on the board. Having Mr Shonekan on the board seems like a good thing as well. Recent good press below

http://businessdayonline.com/Insurance/1674.html

Downside: same as Law Union. Unic is also more volatile

Bottom line: same as Law Union

Nigerian-German Chemicals/15.3

Upside: forward PE is 15, growth rate is >60%, will not be raising money anytime soon, will (hopefully) not split the stock; what more could you want? This is the new GTBank; a must have in any portfolio. Shonekan on the board again.

Downside: I don't see any

Bottom line: look under "upside". + Wanaj0 has been flogging this forever. Oil services could boost PAT. Has the potential to double the market performance.

UBA/17.3

Upside: Because it's year end is September, the trailing PE (25) is comparable to the forward PE of most banks. In the absence of any interim results, I'm using a 50% PAT growth rate; I expect UBA to join the N30B club by this time next year. 3 month result should be released in Feb and give the stock a boost. No PO in 2008 (thank God!) and 07 PO funds should add to bottom line.

Downside: may not release 3 month result (did not in 2006). Relatively high (absolute) price may deter some

Bottom line: due to YE timing, UBA is suddenly looking like the best bank. A great short-term play till the 1Q result is released.


If the market remains at the current pricing level, all these stocks should deliver 60 - 100% in 2008 relative to today's prices. Sure a stock will come out of nowhere to pull a "Costain" on us, but if I could see it, I'd have quit my job already!

Enjoy.

yodiyokun:
Compliments of the Season to all

Anyone knows whether Access Banks has released their 2nd Qtr results?

Not to my knowledge

epetedo,

Read Lead's Margin policy here

http://www.leadcapitalng.com/client_services/stock_brokerage.asp

In a nutshell, if you put down 4m, you can borrow another 4m. When you get back, lemme know how it went.

Merry Xmas