₦airaland Forum

@Beaf,

you really under estimate the true state of Nigeria. Nigeria is not secure, pure and simple. I have no theory on who would have been responsible, but I can assure you that things can happen in that country and no one can prevent it, your uncle does not have a firm grip on the country. Look at what heppend in Jos, far worse than what happened in Abj. Everyone knew about it for days, were the authorities able to prevent it.

What about the constant kidnapping, which has been prevailant in the ND far before it became a novelty in th east, what did anyone do about it. What about the constant threat of armed robbery. The country is just far too porous, so let us stop pointing accusing fingers until we get our act together, and I am afrain your uncle in not the person to lead us out of this mess.

We really have an Arse as a president. Where is the proof, just turns up and makes stupid allegations. I have said it before and I will not mince words Goodluck cannot lead Nigeria, he is just not able.

I think people are looking at this issue as an isolated incident, it is not. The country really has big problems, far beyond goodluck, who in my opinion does not represent change. So let us stop kidding ourselves and start having meaning conversations on how to choose an alternative to pdp

Jonathan really has multiple problems on his hand. the whole wahala is beyond him

@Mbeki,

I doubt they even know

Na wha. the whole country is so porous. I bet you it will remains this way for weeks if time is not taken

Lets not forget that this is a true reflection of state of Nigeria. Remember that 3 months ago we had the massacre of Innocent women and children in Jos, then it was the brutal murder of passengers by Armed Robbers, what about all the kidnapping. Lets not focus on mend alone, the whole country is @ crisis point, and it was bound to happen, especially with the sort of government we have had for so long. I am really not suprised at this, to be honest. Nigeria is one big powder keg waiting to be ignited.

@Kobojunkie,

Where did those pictures come from? really sad

Come oh, has Oga GJ made any annoucement, or is he busy chopping jeloff rice and chicken

This really brings the true state of the country to the fore. If it is not Mend, Boko Haram, Kidnappers, Accident, Armed Robbers, Hired Killers, and Most Important of ALL Corrupt Leaders.

Hey you guys remember the article below by John Campbell.




https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-511935.0.html


Brink
What Happens If the 2011 Elections Fail? John Campbell
September 9, 2010
Article Summary
The January 2011 elections could tear Nigeria apart. Is there anything the Obama administration can do to help the country avoid North-South conflict or a military coup?
JOHN CAMPBELL, the former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007, is the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His book, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, will be published by Rowman & Littlefield in November.

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Essay Nigeria's Rigged Democracy
Jean Herskovits
Nigeria's elections last April were among the most seriously flawed in the country's history, thanks largely to the manipulations of the U.S.-backed ruling party. With Nigerians increasingly clamoring for accountability, Washington's continuing support could generate more unrest -- and could pose a risk both to oil supplies coming out of Nigeria and to the stability of West Africa.

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Essay Democracy in Nigeria
Jean Herskovits
On October 1 Nigeria added to its list of vital statistics a new status as the world's fourth largest democracy. The list was already impressive. One African in four is a Nigerian; with a population of 80 million or more, Nigeria is larger than any country in Europe. It is also the world's eighth largest producer of crude oil and has been the United States' second largest supplier for six years, neither joining in the Arab boycott of 1973-74, nor cutting exports for policy reasons subsequently.

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Sign-up for free weekly updates from ForeignAffairs.com.The 2011 elections in Nigeria, scheduled for January 22, pose a threat to the stability of the United States’ most important partner in West Africa. The end of a power-sharing arrangement between the Muslim North and the Christian South, as now seems likely, could lead to postelection sectarian violence, paralysis of the executive branch, and even a coup. The Obama administration has little leverage over the conduct and outcome of the elections -- and if the vote does lead to chaos, Washington may no longer be able to count on Nigerian partnership in addressing African regional and security issues such as the conflicts in Darfur, Southern Sudan, and Somalia.

Nigeria’s current political drama dates to November 2009, when its president, Umaru Yar’Adua, was hospitalized for a kidney condition in Saudi Arabia. Yar’Adua refused to comply with the Nigerian constitution and hand over executive authority to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan. The result was a power vacuum until February 2010, when the National Assembly extralegally designated Jonathan the “acting president” by resolution, even though there is no constitutional provision for doing so. In April, Acting President Jonathan attended the nuclear safety summit in Washington, where U.S. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden warmly embraced him, not least because his designation forestalled a possible military coup. In May 2010, the first act of Nigeria’s political tragedy ended when Yar’Adua died and Jonathan became the constitutional president. Now, Washington may be tempted to move its attention away from Nigeria -- but that would be a mistake.

Nigeria has held three national elections since the end of military dictatorship in 1998. In 1999, active and retired military officers, along with a few civilian allies, oversaw the transition from military to civilian rule. They established the nonideological People’s Democratic Party (PDP); selected Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian from the South, as the presidential candidate; and placed him in office with a northern Muslim vice president. An elite consensus formed around an unwritten power-sharing agreement, which dictated that presidential candidates would henceforth alternate between the Christian South and the Muslim North -- a system designed to avoid presidential contests that could exacerbate hostility between the regions and religions.

With the advantages of presidential incumbency, and access to unlimited oil money, Obasanjo secured elite support for a second presidential term in 2003. Northerners reluctantly acquiesced to a rotation cycle of two terms rather than the one they had foreseen in 1999. Once re-elected, however, Obasanjo reneged on his two-term promise by attempting to run again in 2007. This bid was defeated due to public anger and northern leaders’ insistence on power sharing. Nevertheless, Obasanjo remained powerful enough to impose his handpicked candidates on the ruling party in 2007: Yar’Adua, a northern Muslim, for president and Jonathan, a Christian southerner, for vice president. Obasanjo’s chosen candidates fit the terms of the power-sharing convention, and accordingly, they took office after the 2007 election, which was marred by fraud and irregularities. However, Yar’Adua’s subsequent death and Jonathan’s presidency upended the power-sharing arrangement.

In the event of postelection sectarian violence and a political breakdown, the army could intervene if the civilian government loses control. Unlike in every previous election since 1999, no elite consensus exists for the 2011 poll, nor is there an Obasanjo-like figure strong enough to impose one. Although it is still dominated by elites and their patronage networks, the Nigerian political sphere is wide open.
Many in the North believe it is still their turn for the presidency, but the northern power brokers do not agree on who should be their presidential candidate. Several northern politicians, including Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari, both former military dictators, are running for the presidency. Other potential candidates are Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, the national security adviser under Obasanjo and Jonathan, and several northern governors. Nigerian democrats are advocating the candidacies of Nasir El-Rufai, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and Nuhu Ribadu, formerly the head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, the anticorruption agency. Both are seen as having the potential to restore public faith in the political system. But so long as the current elites remain the country’s political power brokers, candidates operating outside the PDP will be long shots at best.

Jonathan, with the advantages of presidential incumbency, has also announced that he will run. This could mean the presidential contest will feature one or more northern Muslim candidates opposing Jonathan against the backdrop of ethnic and religious violence in the Middle Belt, Muslim extremism in the North, and an ongoing insurrection in the oil-rich Niger Delta. In such a fraught environment, supporters of candidates might exploit religious and ethnic identities, a dangerous and potentially explosive dynamic that until now has largely been avoided.

Logistical preparations for the 2011 elections have not started. There is no voters roll, and despite the president’s signing of an electoral reform bill, some of these reforms remain unimplemented four months before the election. The election therefore will almost certainly lack legitimacy, especially in the eyes of the losers. This will further drive the country to the brink, especially if winners and losers are defined by their religious and ethnic backgrounds. There is at the moment no standoff between northern and southern leaders, at least nothing comparable to that between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe or between Kenya’s Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga in the aftermath of the 2007 elections. Nevertheless, the danger of Nigeria plunging into postelection violence is a real possibility.

The Nigerian military still regards itself as the ultimate guarantor of the state’s security, and most political elites agree. In the event of postelection sectarian violence and a political breakdown, it could intervene if the civilian government loses control. The army, given its history, could move quickly, and unlike in Kenya following the 2007 postelection crisis, there would probably be little time for the international community to try to facilitate a political settlement. Only if the military itself fragments would there be space for the international organizations such as the African Union to intervene in search of a political solution. Yet the return to power of the so-called men on horseback in Nigeria would pose special challenges for Washington, considering congressional requirements that Washington scale back contact with military governments that overthrow civilian governments. It would also be anathema to the African Union’s principled stand against military coups.

Some Nigerians are privately urging the Obama administration to intervene behind the scenes to forestall a postelection crisis. Yet intervention on behalf of one candidate could do more harm than good. If Delta militants sense that Washington is opposed to a Jonathan candidacy, and should he withdraw or lose, they might escalate their attacks on U.S.-owned oil facilities, thereby cutting off production. If, on the other hand, northern leaders see the United States as supporting Jonathan, they are likely to become even more estranged from the federal government. The North would likely see support of Jonathan as part of the perceived U.S. war on Islam.

Given these realities, what can the Obama administration do? At present, the United States enjoys significant support among Nigerians, even though it lacks the capacity to have much impact on the 2011 elections. It cannot reform the electoral commission, nor can it change Nigeria’s corrupt political economy, which is fundamental to vote-rigging efforts. It could, however, establish and publicize the benchmarks it would use to measure improvement in the electoral process. It could also focus election-related assistance on select states where polling in recent elections has been better than elsewhere; Lagos and Cross Rivers State are two such possible venues. As the elections approach, the United States must be scrupulously neutral on the presidential candidates while reiterating its call for free, fair, and credible elections.

The Obama administration should also look for ways to support such civil-society organizations as the Nigeria Bar Association, which actively works to strengthen the rule of law. The United States already provides assistance for civic groups involved in voter education and the strengthening of political parties as open institutions. That support should continue. In the event of a confrontation between the North and South over failed elections in 2011, these organizations could play a role in mitigating the worst excesses of a crisis.

Such steps by the Obama administration are worthwhile to promote the long-term development of democratic institutions. However, in the event of a bloody crisis that splits the country along regional and religious lines, neither the Obama administration nor any other foreign government or international organization will have much leverage. Faced with such a cataclysm, Nigeria’s friends should seek to mitigate the humanitarian consequences and prevent the resulting instability from spreading to other parts of the continent.

Nigerians have long danced on the edge of the cliff without falling off. Yet at this juncture, the odds are not good for a positive outcome, and it is difficult to see how Nigeria can move back from the brink.

While we all condemn the attack as foolish. It highlights that there is real unrest in Nigeria, I think the problme ia far beyond GJ coming from the ND. Nothing works in Nigeria, if it is not Mend, then Boko Haram, what about the Kidnappers and armed robbers, but dont forget the most deadly of all CORRUPT LEADERS

This is terrible, but not surprising. People under-estimate the level of discord and unrest within the people. The natives are restless. RIP those innocent souls.

Nigeria is truly not one country, if some can resort to tribalist chants when an obvious wrong has happened. It doesnt matter if it is Igbo, Yoruba, Hausa, what happened was wrong.

Where did she get the money from? She is a bloody Thief, no different from Iboiri. I don tire for all of them. Anyone who defends this can not have the interest of Nigeria at heart

@labiyemmy

They cant critisize your towns woman, even when she is blindling being stupid. Were did she get the money to share rice to people. They have started looting public fund. Hang on oh, this was a humble lectures wife from Uniport right?

Same ole, Same ole. Rice and Garri politics once again, And who is at the heart of it? GJ. Things never chnage. Anyone who thinks voting for GJ represents change, is in for a rude awakening.

good, but still too much. We should not be spending more that 1BN on this occassion.

Just reckless spending, and in no way justified

@Femi4Love,

I know what you mean, but no matter how bad it is, there is nowhere like home, and I am extremely passionate about Nigeria, even though Nigeria has not done much for her citizens, I still love her, because I see the potential. As a people if we drop our selfish greedy attitude, we can do great things, but we live in Hope.

U see am, maybe they will soon accuse him of hating GJ.

The country cannot afford expensive fanfare, but no some people are hell bent on spending the cash. Where do our priorities lie.

@Femi4love,

Na wah my brother. we better all start looking at fixing our own country if not we are finished.

@Slap1,

It is not just about being a breath of fresh air. We need people who can hit the ground running. Nigeria is in serious trouble. Our leader now need to think far and wide and act quick. There is so much wrong with the country. The education system is practically dead, there is no security in that country (if thief catch you, you are on your own), if you fall ill, that is it, just pray it is nothing serious.

Listen GJ did not cause all these problems, but we need someone who has a clue on how to tackle these issues, not one a at a time, but all together, because all sectors are crumbling.

Listen GJ may not be a bad man (The Jury is still iut on that assessment), but his advisers are not doing well. Nigeria is in serious trouble that sentiments alone cannot fix. We need people with very clear ideas on how they would move the country on all fronts, not just selective options, all, that means Education, Welfare, Health, Security, Justice, this list is long. But we need to be firing on all cylinders, I am afraid we are not , and I doubt we will get that with GJ

This one is worse than political ashawo, we call this 3 for 2 naira. Make im carry go

Finally, some grown up debate. Let us put the sentimental cloak aside and deal with the real issue. GJ has really not shown that he is capable of dealing with a very difficult country (Nigeria), make no mistake, to lead Nigeria is damn difficult, but it is even more difficult when you have a leader who hasnt got a clue, and surrounds himself with money choppers and stark Illiterates.

Anti-Terrorist squad for kidnapped children? This is not a terrorist issue, where are the police? We always get things wrong in that country.

Well this is all part of a very disfunctional society. How can anyone be suprised at what is happen, saw this coming years ago. The country is in total chaos, an the Nigerian police have not been doing thier job for far too long.

Kidnapping, Boko Haram, Millitants, Armed Robbers, Hired Killers. the list is endless. We are just getting to the bottom of the pit. We are indeed a wicked society

This is another symptom of a very sick country. Jonathan has a big task on his hand. Nigeria is in real trouble.

Lets not be hasty to judge, we all know that Ohakim is not well. GJ should publicly condemn what happened, and move on.

Na today Nyash dey back? The country has been falling to peices for a long time, but as usual we all bury our heads in the sand. Oga GJ has a lot of work

Same old rubbish. Shey they have a governor there?

I will see what I can do.

Ibb should go and rest, it is his spirit that is blackmailing him.