₦airaland Forum

@Gbawe, you have spoken well. A lot of people have dismissed the article as scare mongering, with the writer not having the good interest of Nigeria @ heart, but to me this is just an inpartial analysis, which in some way seems far fetched, but then again can easily materialise. There is so much uncertinty in the country, too many fractions, the ingredients for real trouble.

There must be real understanding, this might be the reason why GJ have not formaly declared, or has he?

Very true, and I have often preached that as being the biggest problem in politics in Nigeria. All the Parties stand for absolutely nothing. PDP worse than the rest.

I was hoping that the Labour party would call on the different unions to join hands to pose a formidable force, because that is waht we need. A party aligned with the needs of the common man. I even wrote to the chairman of the party and never got an answer. I have said it before and will say it again. Nigeria is not going to be ready to conduct any credible elections come January 2011. best case scenario is that jega would make GJ win look legitinate nothing more.

@GenBuhari,

I was going to say that, A law should be passed first to hang those thieving politicians first, they are all blooody thieves, worse than armed robbers. In China they would all have been shot

It is not because they said so. You know we are very good at not seeing what is wrong with our country and doing something about it. someone has taken an inpartial look at the true state of our country and we blame them.

The stack reality is that things are very volatile in Nigeria. That is just plain fact, look at ND, Jos crisis, Boko Haram, there is just so much that can potentially go wrong if we are not careful. I am not too sure of the coup thing, but one thing I have been scared about for years is the potential for massive trouble in the country with everyone fighting their corner, and we not really knowing who the real enemy is.

True,
But we must not take these issues likely. The political landscape is changing, and so are external factor which are real and present (Mend, Boko Haram), these are real issues which could so easily go out of hand

@Londoner, sorry and just to add, I have been around so many Ghanians to fully appreciate thier inherent dislike for Nigerians. conversely, lets not forget the "Ghana must go" incident.

@Londoner,

The state of Nigeria is clear for all to see, one does not need to badmouth ones country for the truth to come out. My point is that Ghana understands that Nigeria is a country who's leaders do not care for its citizens and they are taking full advantage of that. Badmouthing ones country might have a contributing effect, but I think an even bigger effect is how the country protects is citizens.

Ghana maybe one country, but we hear tme without number about Nigerians that are unjustly executed in far eastern countries for alledged drug offences, and the Nigerians governement does nothing.

Nigerians need to feel proud about a country who feels proud and strong enough to defend her citizens, at the moment tht Nigerian govenment is doing absolutely nothing, and it shows in all departments. look ate football, players dont get paid, look at teachers, salaries withheld for months on end. My dear, charity begins at home.

@Londoner, I totally agree with you, however, you cannot blame a people who have left a country where things dont work, and neither can you expect them to lie about thr true state of the country.

Ghana just happens to be taking advantage of the terrible govenement we have in Nigeria, like so many other countries, and my point is that we have to start looking after our own.

@Londoner, I share your emotions, but my point is that this sort of rubbish happens because the Nigerians Government does absolutely nothing to protect her citizens, inside the country let alone outside. I can recount over 10 stories of blatant discrimination that has happened to me because of where I come from, and also because the perpertrators sensed that nothing would be done to defend me, so they took the advantage.

We need to act strong and hard, that means pulling out of Ghana as well as boycot, we should seriously think of stopping visinting Ghana. I know folks who flock there for short breaks, and they enjoy our money.

But most importanly to have an effective response to this rubbish, we must have the full backing of the Govenment in place.

This can only happen when the Government of a country fails to look after her people. Nigeria is notoriously bad at that, if you are a nigerians outside nigeria, just know that you are on your own. Never expect help from the Nigerians Government. Who knows they might decide to extend it to innocent students in thier schools.

Nigerians should seriously think of leaving the country.

Please read this article dispassionately and comment.

Brink
What Happens If the 2011 Elections Fail? John Campbell
September 9, 2010
Article Summary
The January 2011 elections could tear Nigeria apart. Is there anything the Obama administration can do to help the country avoid North-South conflict or a military coup?
JOHN CAMPBELL, the former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007, is the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His book, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, will be published by Rowman & Littlefield in November.

PrintSend to friendDecrease font sizeTextIncrease font sizeView This Article as Multiple Pages
Essay Nigeria's Rigged Democracy
Jean Herskovits
Nigeria's elections last April were among the most seriously flawed in the country's history, thanks largely to the manipulations of the U.S.-backed ruling party. With Nigerians increasingly clamoring for accountability, Washington's continuing support could generate more unrest -- and could pose a risk both to oil supplies coming out of Nigeria and to the stability of West Africa.

Read
Essay Democracy in Nigeria
Jean Herskovits
On October 1 Nigeria added to its list of vital statistics a new status as the world's fourth largest democracy. The list was already impressive. One African in four is a Nigerian; with a population of 80 million or more, Nigeria is larger than any country in Europe. It is also the world's eighth largest producer of crude oil and has been the United States' second largest supplier for six years, neither joining in the Arab boycott of 1973-74, nor cutting exports for policy reasons subsequently.

Read
Would you like to leave a comment?

3CommentsJoin

Sign-up for free weekly updates from ForeignAffairs.com.The 2011 elections in Nigeria, scheduled for January 22, pose a threat to the stability of the United States’ most important partner in West Africa. The end of a power-sharing arrangement between the Muslim North and the Christian South, as now seems likely, could lead to postelection sectarian violence, paralysis of the executive branch, and even a coup. The Obama administration has little leverage over the conduct and outcome of the elections -- and if the vote does lead to chaos, Washington may no longer be able to count on Nigerian partnership in addressing African regional and security issues such as the conflicts in Darfur, Southern Sudan, and Somalia.

Nigeria’s current political drama dates to November 2009, when its president, Umaru Yar’Adua, was hospitalized for a kidney condition in Saudi Arabia. Yar’Adua refused to comply with the Nigerian constitution and hand over executive authority to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan. The result was a power vacuum until February 2010, when the National Assembly extralegally designated Jonathan the “acting president” by resolution, even though there is no constitutional provision for doing so. In April, Acting President Jonathan attended the nuclear safety summit in Washington, where U.S. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden warmly embraced him, not least because his designation forestalled a possible military coup. In May 2010, the first act of Nigeria’s political tragedy ended when Yar’Adua died and Jonathan became the constitutional president. Now, Washington may be tempted to move its attention away from Nigeria -- but that would be a mistake.

Nigeria has held three national elections since the end of military dictatorship in 1998. In 1999, active and retired military officers, along with a few civilian allies, oversaw the transition from military to civilian rule. They established the nonideological People’s Democratic Party (PDP); selected Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian from the South, as the presidential candidate; and placed him in office with a northern Muslim vice president. An elite consensus formed around an unwritten power-sharing agreement, which dictated that presidential candidates would henceforth alternate between the Christian South and the Muslim North -- a system designed to avoid presidential contests that could exacerbate hostility between the regions and religions.

With the advantages of presidential incumbency, and access to unlimited oil money, Obasanjo secured elite support for a second presidential term in 2003. Northerners reluctantly acquiesced to a rotation cycle of two terms rather than the one they had foreseen in 1999. Once re-elected, however, Obasanjo reneged on his two-term promise by attempting to run again in 2007. This bid was defeated due to public anger and northern leaders’ insistence on power sharing. Nevertheless, Obasanjo remained powerful enough to impose his handpicked candidates on the ruling party in 2007: Yar’Adua, a northern Muslim, for president and Jonathan, a Christian southerner, for vice president. Obasanjo’s chosen candidates fit the terms of the power-sharing convention, and accordingly, they took office after the 2007 election, which was marred by fraud and irregularities. However, Yar’Adua’s subsequent death and Jonathan’s presidency upended the power-sharing arrangement.

In the event of postelection sectarian violence and a political breakdown, the army could intervene if the civilian government loses control. Unlike in every previous election since 1999, no elite consensus exists for the 2011 poll, nor is there an Obasanjo-like figure strong enough to impose one. Although it is still dominated by elites and their patronage networks, the Nigerian political sphere is wide open.
Many in the North believe it is still their turn for the presidency, but the northern power brokers do not agree on who should be their presidential candidate. Several northern politicians, including Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari, both former military dictators, are running for the presidency. Other potential candidates are Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, the national security adviser under Obasanjo and Jonathan, and several northern governors. Nigerian democrats are advocating the candidacies of Nasir El-Rufai, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and Nuhu Ribadu, formerly the head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, the anticorruption agency. Both are seen as having the potential to restore public faith in the political system. But so long as the current elites remain the country’s political power brokers, candidates operating outside the PDP will be long shots at best.

Jonathan, with the advantages of presidential incumbency, has also announced that he will run. This could mean the presidential contest will feature one or more northern Muslim candidates opposing Jonathan against the backdrop of ethnic and religious violence in the Middle Belt, Muslim extremism in the North, and an ongoing insurrection in the oil-rich Niger Delta. In such a fraught environment, supporters of candidates might exploit religious and ethnic identities, a dangerous and potentially explosive dynamic that until now has largely been avoided.

Logistical preparations for the 2011 elections have not started. There is no voters roll, and despite the president’s signing of an electoral reform bill, some of these reforms remain unimplemented four months before the election. The election therefore will almost certainly lack legitimacy, especially in the eyes of the losers. This will further drive the country to the brink, especially if winners and losers are defined by their religious and ethnic backgrounds. There is at the moment no standoff between northern and southern leaders, at least nothing comparable to that between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe or between Kenya’s Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga in the aftermath of the 2007 elections. Nevertheless, the danger of Nigeria plunging into postelection violence is a real possibility.

The Nigerian military still regards itself as the ultimate guarantor of the state’s security, and most political elites agree. In the event of postelection sectarian violence and a political breakdown, it could intervene if the civilian government loses control. The army, given its history, could move quickly, and unlike in Kenya following the 2007 postelection crisis, there would probably be little time for the international community to try to facilitate a political settlement. Only if the military itself fragments would there be space for the international organizations such as the African Union to intervene in search of a political solution. Yet the return to power of the so-called men on horseback in Nigeria would pose special challenges for Washington, considering congressional requirements that Washington scale back contact with military governments that overthrow civilian governments. It would also be anathema to the African Union’s principled stand against military coups.

Some Nigerians are privately urging the Obama administration to intervene behind the scenes to forestall a postelection crisis. Yet intervention on behalf of one candidate could do more harm than good. If Delta militants sense that Washington is opposed to a Jonathan candidacy, and should he withdraw or lose, they might escalate their attacks on U.S.-owned oil facilities, thereby cutting off production. If, on the other hand, northern leaders see the United States as supporting Jonathan, they are likely to become even more estranged from the federal government. The North would likely see support of Jonathan as part of the perceived U.S. war on Islam.

Given these realities, what can the Obama administration do? At present, the United States enjoys significant support among Nigerians, even though it lacks the capacity to have much impact on the 2011 elections. It cannot reform the electoral commission, nor can it change Nigeria’s corrupt political economy, which is fundamental to vote-rigging efforts. It could, however, establish and publicize the benchmarks it would use to measure improvement in the electoral process. It could also focus election-related assistance on select states where polling in recent elections has been better than elsewhere; Lagos and Cross Rivers State are two such possible venues. As the elections approach, the United States must be scrupulously neutral on the presidential candidates while reiterating its call for free, fair, and credible elections.

The Obama administration should also look for ways to support such civil-society organizations as the Nigeria Bar Association, which actively works to strengthen the rule of law. The United States already provides assistance for civic groups involved in voter education and the strengthening of political parties as open institutions. That support should continue. In the event of a confrontation between the North and South over failed elections in 2011, these organizations could play a role in mitigating the worst excesses of a crisis.

Such steps by the Obama administration are worthwhile to promote the long-term development of democratic institutions. However, in the event of a bloody crisis that splits the country along regional and religious lines, neither the Obama administration nor any other foreign government or international organization will have much leverage. Faced with such a cataclysm, Nigeria’s friends should seek to mitigate the humanitarian consequences and prevent the resulting instability from spreading to other parts of the continent.

Nigerians have long danced on the edge of the cliff without falling off. Yet at this juncture, the odds are not good for a positive outcome, and it is difficult to see how Nigeria can move back from the brink.


http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66746/john-campbell/nigeria-on-the-brink?page=show&ref=nf

Buhari is the man. there has been no proof that he stole anything, just as one can say PG was caught with bags of money or was she not. Leave Buhari alone, off all the lot he is the most upright, and deserve a full shot at the top job.

Obuekwe,

Has a very good point and should not be dismissed. However, people are only going to fear and respect you when we respect ourselves. If we were doing things the right way and looking out for each other, it would be difficult to take advantage, but that is not the case.

Look at our leaders, not 1 single black country has good leadership, if only those who ill treat thier own people understand the far reaching consequences of thier actions. So I think a good inward look is required, while vigorously challenging any stupid oppression.

Its a difficult one.

Let us wait and see. I think this has come too late though

@ Ayo84 and if the Governors dont behave themselves what can he do. As usual Nigerians get carried away like little kids in a candy store, but Like I have always said, Nigerians have the leaders they deserve

@Deniyor, I get you. Dont mind that guy that thinks he alone leaves abroad and raises a family. Most people I know abroad now are striking the right balance which in most case would mean one stays at home while the other goes to work, and this also applies to oyibo people, so it is not a black thing.
Saying that, there is so much merit in the wife staying back to really put a good eye on the kids and family and making a very successful home. It is not about the big bucks jobs, most times they end up being real killers, but folks fail to realise this before it is too late and then they blame it on something else, rather than thier inability to give up thier selfish desire

@deniyor, I wouldnt recommend or encourage that. I think this lady came on here for some good advice, and the least we can do is offer her some, no matter how truthful it might sound

Chaircover,

I think you articulated my point very well. People are fast missing the point about marriage. Marriage is not about having a fantastic career that takes you away from your family. it is about looking at your family and listening to them and and thier needs, it is about putting our selfish desires aside and thinking of your family first, and just as chaircover said it is all about your family coming home to a loving Mum and wife, rather that family waiting till 10pm for a tired Partner.

When priorites are mislaid, that is the begining of a broken home. Find out what should take precedence and judge rightly. It all depends on what is the most important thing to you. I guess just as the housework and cooking suffers, so likely the rest of the family. The husband is in the right to express his displeasure, and please dont take it the wrong way.

Always remember that work is a means to and end, not the reason for existance, we have all got ourselves so caught up in all this career race that we often forget to stop and smell the fresh flowers. Remember career is not everything, you dont want to look back years from now with regret.

The Good General has my vote.

GJ hasnt got the balls to even declare his intention to run let alone the power to fight corruption, let him go and rest.

Beaf,

Leave this blind support for GJ, he is from my area as well, but does not represent the best Nigeria can produce. He has been extremely wasteful, and will not get my support, come 2011.

That country is really riddled with fuccking thieves from top to bottom. Everywhere you look unbelievable stealing is going on. I don tire

Very effective, paste this on GJ sites, and run commentaries until he responds. These bastards get away with murder because no-one challenges them. Why have we not troubled GJ till they give Nigerians a comprehensive breakdown on how the are going to spend 87BN for voters register. How come we do not have full details on this excersize. Once again, they know we will not do anything, so they do as they please.

Good Plan JimmyBoy,

But I doubt you will find anyone to follow you on that journey, we are born Siddon-lookers.

but why not, he is just as qualified as the other desports in PDP, so why not. Please let him do as he pleases, that way we confirm the true state of that wretched party.

Aisha2,

Well done. Please keep us posted on how we can all help. If only we can show such compassion for our fellow Nigerians, I tell you Nigeria will be a much better place, but I am equally happy to hear that the Hon Minister took time to come and see Him.

God Bless your efforts

Long shot, but the likely scenario is that they are all hosted by the same ISP. ISP has major problem, brings sites down. Wont put is passed that, especially if the ISP is in Nigeria.

my people we must all rise up to the occasion and help this little girl, but more importantly we, must take this issue where it matters. Thank God for mediums like FB, why dont we paste this on GJ page?

Doesnt matter if he or she is a beauty queen or ugly queen, the fact that anyone can come on here and justify what happend to this person is damn right awful. There is no reason what so ever, why a policeman or woman should assault the citizens of a country, for what in my opinion is a minor offence. The fact that people are actually defending this act, goes to show how educated we are as a people.

They say common sense these days is no longer common. I think it is obviously clear that the problem with Nigeria is not only the leaders, but more importantly the people themselves. If the truth has to be said, we are worse than the leaders we are all quick to blame

Why dont we take this to Mr President. He has a facebook page, we must get the authorities to start taking responsibility for things like this. Why are we so wicked in that country?

Aisha,

how do we get in touch if we want to donate?

We are not that organised. By the way who is going to be debating with who? No structure, no framework. Just a fuked up country, with no direction