rvp2017:
The past - before there was the talk of climate change - renewable clean energy is the future.

Oil prices won’t hit 10$ in the next 10 yrs. in fact oil prices are on an upward trend. It’s currently around 74$. Saudi Arabia and opec is earmarking for it to increase between 80$ and 100$

rvp2017:
The last say 15yrs - most of growth in sub-sahara - was down to commodities price rally (oil barrel @100 dollars) and telecommunication - the next 15yrs will be harsh for economies that depend on oil (Nigeria & Angola) - because Oil is going to sell for as low as 10 dollars (when Nigeria depend on it for 95% of it's revenue/taxes) - and digital revolution in finance+ICT like is happening in kenya will drive the economy forward. In Nigeria mobile money has simply refused to grow - stuck at 1% -5yrs later - while in Ghana they are hot on the heels of kenya - although Kenya is so faaaar ahead - just the same way it's ahead in internet/broandband. Therefore my bold prediction are that kenya will continue to grow at very high rates...while Nigeria will continue to regress with Oil. They are simply unable to shake off the oil curse/dutch disease.

.

I really doubt oil prices going as low as 10$...

jason14:
ah na wa o 2030! God thats so long

how far do you think they've gone?

We have to wait o! It’s a world class project.
They’re about 60% done on reclamation of land from the sea. I believe roads, power and water are already on most parts of the current reclaimed land. They also haven’t finished the canals, plus the marina is yet to be completed. All we’re waiting for is for investors to build their buildings, plus recession slowed down the building. Hopefully as the economy grows without interruption, we should see more buildings coming on ground.

But Nigeria needs more than 1 world class city. I don’t know what’s going on in centenary city in Abuja.. be like say politicians and corruption dey stall am.

Danielnino00:
While some deluded fellow is making some whack predictions that his country's economy will surpass Nigeria and South Africa's by 2030, below is the world economic forum's projection of the world economy by 2030 ..

32. Netherlands — $1.08 trillion
31. Colombia — $1.111 trillion
30. South Africa — $1.148 trillion
29. Vietnam — $1.303 trillion
28. Bangladesh — $1.324 trillion
27. Argentina — $1.342 trillion
26. Poland — $1.505 trillion
25. Malaysia — $1.506 trillion
24. Philippines — $1.615 trillion
23. Australia — $1.663 trillion
22. Thailand — $1.732 trillion
21. Nigeria — $1.794 trillion
20. Pakistan — $1.868 trillion
19. Egypt — $2.049 trillion
18. Canada — $2.141 trillion
17. Spain — $2.159 trillion
16. Iran — $2.354 trillion
15. Italy — $2.541 trillion
14. South Korea — $2.651 trillion
13. Saudi Arabia — $2.755 trillion
12. Turkey — $2.996 trillion
11. France — $3.377 trillion
10. United Kingdom — $3.638 trillion
9. Mexico — $3.661 trillion
8. Brazil — $4.439 trillion
7. Germany — $4.707 trillion
6. Russia — $4.736 trillion
5. Indonesia — $5.424 trillion
4. Japan — $5.606 trillion
3. India — $19.511 trillion
2. United States — $23.475 trillion
1. China — $38.008 trillion

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/a-prediction-the-worlds-most-powerful-economies-in-2030

Shervydman,you were right... these people dunno sh1t about economics

I doubt this report though, I don’t see Iran and Egypt becoming larger than Nigeria

jason14:
yeah true , but when do you think EAC is gonna be completed . they are taking too long

It might take 15-20 yrs for it to be really advanced, that is having a look of completion

The first building finished around 2016. So there’s a long way to go.

I think by 2030, we would see a better fuller picture

jason14:
EAC will soon be completed and become d most advanced mega city in Africa and will be among d world best cities , Kenyans will come and say its a lie that we "cooked up the city" dangote is building one of d largest refineries in d world in Lagos when its done + EAC Lagos economy wud be larger than the whole east Africa +southern Africa combined

Lagos is indeed getting set to be the New York and California of Nigeria and ultimately Africa...

My problem is... why are most things centralized in Lagos? I mean in terms of manufacturing,financial, real estate and hospitality, entertainment, and the tech sector.

We need other cities to have their own specialization. Like in America, New York is financial, Los Angeles is Hollywood, Las Vegas is entertainment, and so on....

rvp2017:
While Kenya lead in the share of it's intra-africa trade (48-50%) and recently sign up to Africa free trade pact - Nigeria the GIANT refused to sign up - and admitted it cannot compete in Africa.

Here is a giant who is afraid to mix with the big boys of Africa's manufacturing ( Egypt, South Africa,Morroco and Kenya)

https://guardian.ng/features/justifying-nigerias-inelegant-refusal-to-sign-the-africa-trade-deal/

South Africa hasn't signed up yet...

rvp2017:
You have OIL - the raw material for plastic - and stuff like bitumen - you have nearly 3% of global OIL - so dude you've FAILED FAILED AND FAILED to use OIL. Kenya with zero oil export petrochemical products.

Your OIL industry has ZERO VALUE chain. Shell come and extract crude oil - pump it - to US - and you import refined oil (more expensive). I mean is there any country in the entire universe worse than you guys!!!!!!!!!!!! You are in zero sum game - you import about 270 barrels of refined oil daily ---that is a lot of dollars!!! - that you can easily save.

Kenya a country without any mineral of serious value import about 90-100K barrels daily (1/3 of Naija) but we have never had fuel shortage or had to queue to buy oil. Nor do our gov SUBSIDIZE our petrol.

If you go back on this thread, you’ll see that Dangote is investing about 14 billion dollars building oil refinery of 650,000 bpd biggest in Africa and the biggest single line refinery in the world. It’ll take Nigeria from an importer to exporter of refined oil. He’s also building the biggest petrochemical industries in the world where it’ll be producing fertilizers and proponents of plastic(which will also be exported). He’s also building a 12,000 mw capacity gas pipeline. It’ll all be ready by 2019/2020. The plan is that in a few years time, Nigeria will become the petrochemical hub in Africa..

Yea the Nigerian economy is set to undertake rapid diversification and change in the next few years. Recently we’ve been receiving large investments in agriculture. Our agricultural sector is mechanizing and modernizing. We’re set to undertake an agricultural revolution.

Can’t wait for Nigeria’s industrial revolution that will come with the several free trade zones and deep seaports planned!! :

rvp2017:
And that is now arriving in Nigeria and you're very proud of it. Why not try ceramic.

That’s been there for a longggg time same as cement. We have one of the biggest plastic plant in west Africa

rvp2017:
Did you say plastics? Why would you be happy with plastic? When Kenya became amongst the proud countries to have banned plastic bags.

We actually have the world toughest plastic ban - if found with plastic bag - prepare to pay well about 10M Naira or 40K usd.

And here you're happy with more plastic - when will Nigeria ban plastic bags.

Plastic chairs,cups and plates

rvp2017:
First understand what GDP is and we can proceed. Population has NO bearing. It only comes into play during Per Capita calculation. What is measured is good and services produced/consumed. Our Kenyan tea is measured based on quantity produced and prices it fetches - and the same case with service sectors.

I'd love to hear how Nigeria telcom sector contribute 10% of the 500B USD! This Nigeria GDP is intriguing. It's audacious in the way it's overcooked.



Sadly for you - nobody believe it.

1) NO lender believes it - so you're not getting any loan soon.Kenya when it's issued it Euro-bond (now 4B dollars) it was oversubscribed by 8000%. Chinese have pumped loans worth more than 10B dollars. Because we have revenue (taxes) that can repay the loan. Nigeria with measly 36B budget - cannot even pay decent wages to teacher or army.

2) NO Investor believes it- so no FDI for you. You have to wait for sole man Dangote to try his monopolistic and corrupt ways.

SO your GDP is basically useless...except for lying Nigeria politician to cheat you that "Nigeria is Africa GIANT". Really - when did South Africa and Egypt die

Our bonds are bringing in billions of dollars. We’ve received loans by billions of dollars from China... we still have one of the lowest debt to gdp ratio in Africa.

Nigeria received more fdi than Kenya in 2017 even when we just came out of a recession.
And we have several investors apart from dangote sponsoring the lekki deep sea port, building eko Atlantic, building centenary city, Manufacturing cars, cables, and plastics.
Don’t know where you’re getting these cooked fallacies from

rvp2017:
You don't make much sense. That is probably because you attended one of Nigeria bad universities. GDP doesn't measure or factor population. It suppose to measure goods and service produced.All this from empirical data that is cross-referenced/checked for accuracy. For instance Telcom - you can have 140M mobile customers - but what are earnings of all Nigeria telcom sector? The fake Nigeria GDP claims your telcom sector is 10% of the economy - that is whopping 50B dollars created annually - can you show me where that 50B worth of TELCOM services in Nigeria annually? What data did Kale Yemi use to cook that?

To help you and Yemi Kale -- here is what South African think their telcom sector is worth (2.7% of their GDP)
Excluding broadcasting and postal services, the telecommunications industry was worth R148.8bn in 2016, with its value increasing by 1% year-on-year. The sector contributed 2.7% to GDP and employed 26,669 people, according to the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa

And Kenya
2012--The value of Kenya's ICT sector is estimated at US$ 500 million and is expected to grow to US$ 1 billion by 2017. ▻ The sector contributed 2.9% to Kenya's GDP in 2012. Now I think i'ts about 2B dollars worth of services. All this from Communication Authority of Kenya that rigorously collect and analyse data - and have it validated by the very best economist & researchers - NOT COOKED DATA.

And the Nigeria con-statistician - out of the blues - Nigeria telcom sector created $50B annually and 10% of GDP. And yet [b]it struggling to raise 3B taxes.[/b].

And trust me Nigeria telcom is crap when compared to South Africa & Kenya. You just have 150m or more doing very little beyond making calls & texting!!

Nigeria has about 100 million mobile internet subscribers...

The government didn’t really enforce taxes, they barely cared for taxes because of oil revenue. They’re trying to change that now because oil prices won’t stay high for ever..

Daejoyoung:

Well it's not surprising to me that Nigeria is a 500 Billion dollar economy or even more. Countries with large populations and natural resources tend to have large economies as well, this is simply normal. The problem is when the GDP per capita is low as is the case with Nigeria.
l think you Kenyans need a course or two on Economics. GDP is not a measure of the amount in Government coffers, but the worth of goods and services in total from that country, the Government depending on oil may not be worth more than 60 Billion dollars but the country as a whole could be worth more. Population plays a key role in the total worth of goods in a country, for example the total worth of tea produced in Kenya would multiply by almost threefold in Nigeria same with telecommunication sector where Nigeria has over 100.6 million mobile users currently( that's already more than double the total population of Kenya) etc.
So high GDP is expected for Nigeria, b

ut we have low GDP per capita.

Don’t know why he doesn’t seem to get this.

Daejoyoung:

Yeah the Nigerian tax to GDP is low because Government can survive on oil. Low tax to GDP ratio is common to many oil producing nations but that of Nigeria is worse, probably due to the fact that it's a largely informal economy. Services contribute the most to GDP alongside agriculture, but it's largely informal and not regulated in a way.
Nigeria must work on this, and must make other sectors as developed and organized as our oil sector.

That’s what I was trying to tell him

stonemasonn:
Haba, Nigerian engineers/technicians cannot construct simple road again, let’s patronize our civil engineers nah.

My brother even ordinary village road... chai

Danielnino00:
Eko for show

Guy why u dey post pictures like that. E look good for ur eye? lol

rvp2017:
Compare Prof Terry Ryan(St Trinity College & MIT Allumni - with lots of years in academia) with the conman Yemi Kale - Nigeria GDP main cook - Yemi Kale - Alumni of Adis Ababa university . GDP of 500B - that cannot raise even 10B of taxes? With total budget including states at mere 36BUSD?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemi_Kale

People barely pay taxes and if they do they're low in Nigeria.Many people and companies avoid paying taxes through their cunning ways. Gosh, some of the richest Nigerians don't pay tax. Nigeria is a petrol state, so it can afford to not collect tax for a while. But after the oil price fell, the government fell the pinch and now they're working on diversifying revenue and increasing the tax net. Nigeria has one of the lowest,if not the lowest, tax to gdp ratio in the world.

kikuyu1:


HTF does that happen!? Naijjans?

Nigeria has plenty private domestic airlines. Dana Air, Medview, Air peace... the list goes on.. those are the three big ones

kikuyu1:


Thank you for this extremely significant factoid! How many countries at our level even attempted such a social undertaking? Tbh if Naijjans weren't such haters they'd bow down with R-E-S-P-E-C-T!

We also have a welfare program for 1.5 million Nigerians, too small though, started by this current regime.
[url]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/nigeria-rolls-out-2-billion-brazil-like-social-welfare-plan
[/url]

http://punchng.com/nigeria-deploys-social-welfare-scheme-help-poor/

sanpipita:
Western leaders should even be more strict, how can you tell me I'm a bad influence when I literally spend loads of money on you, they should cut off all the aid they send to Nigeria, you can't be taking money from me and not do to my bidding, #loveislove

Aid to northeastern Nigeria(where Boko haram is ravaging)? Stop the aid. Nigeria’s a petrol state. Top 10 producer of oil in the world. It is the biggest economy in Africa for a reason

It’s not that serious...

rvp2017:
Nigeria like to imagine themselves as the Tech Scene of Africa -When you probe - all you hear is Jumia? Andela? but obviously they've got nothing on Kenya. First the infrastructure for tech has been laid in kenya - Kenya long laid fiber in nearly all towns and most of the big cities.
As you can see broadband speed in kenya are amongst the world BEST. Pick any report on Africa tech scene - and kenya comes top of Nigeria - despite the 200M people in the giant. Even Jumia itself - acknowledge kenya has more smartphone than Nigeria
https://jumia.co/nl-templates-kenya/uploads/mobile-report/Jumia_MW18_White_Paper.pdf

Nigeria got the largest investment and grants in the tech sector in 2016..

Indeed, The Guardian gathered that about $360 million investments and grants entered Africa in 2016, with Nigeria getting 30.3 per cent of it.

Nigeria got $109million; Kenya $97.7 million; South Africa $96.7 million; Rwanda $16 million; Cote d’ Ivoire $13 million; Tanzania $12.9million; Egypt $9.15 million; Ghana $8.67 million; Senegal $6.5 million; Morocco $0.98 million; Tunisia $0.8 million, and Uganda $0.27 million.

https://guardian.ng/technology/lagos-to-overtake-nairobi-as-africas-start-up-capital/





Kenya does have better broadband than Nigeria. Nigeria needs to better in the broadband sector and electricity. Despite these challenges, Nigeria's tech sector is booming. That's what I was saying about the resilience and optimism of Nigerians. NOw imagine if we had better broadband and electricity...

don't know why people are saying one skyscraper in eko atlantic...











As you can see trees are being planted all over.

Calabar looks beautiful

rvp2017:
You have problem with English comprehension. America flocking to Kenya is normal just as Kenyan companies will expand to inferior east africa countries. It going to be hard for kenyan company to invest and compete with South Africa. Now officially according to Nigeria stats office - you GDP is larger than South Africa - yet I don't see any FDI flowing out of Nigeria to rest of Africa - outside the banks and dangote? Or well you're sending fdi in terms of third rate movies and music

If you seriously believe your GDP is larger than EGypt or South Africa - then you're truly deluded.

Yes Nigeria has a bigger gdp, it’s kinda obvious (200 million people!!) lots of oil being produced. Gdp isn’t even a very good measure of a country’s development. Look at gdp per capita and HDI,
Nigeria could have the largest gdp and have the poorest citizens. India is a 2 trillion dollar economy yet its citizens a large percentage of them are poor. Their gdp figures are upheld by their huge population(2nd in the world)

There’s a big correlation between population and gdp..

South Africa has a higher gdp per capita than Nigeria. It’s people are ,statistically ,richer

rvp2017:
Who told you Nairobi doesn't have larger lower - middle - and upper class. Kenya I think has more dollar millionaire than lagos. Last I checked Nariobi had 10,000 usd dollar millionaires..

If I am not wrong it's Joburg, Cairo, Capetown, Nairobi, Lagos and Luanda in that order..who has Africa richest.

Off course Nairobi has lower class, middle class,and upper class, not my point.

And it’s Johannesburg, Cairo, Lagos, Cape Town, and then Nairobi according to CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/18/africa/gallery/africa-top-10-cities-millionaires/index.html

rvp2017:
South African companies flocking to Nigeria and yet officially you have bigger GDP than them. You don't see the irony there. In kenya they came and found the competition too stiff for them and bailed out for Nigeria. Okay the FDI investment that I see listed there is countable - for a country or city like Lagos that is a pity. Nearly all those companies are in kenya and have been there some for decades.Kenya and Nairobi - the FDI source for east africa countries - and Nigeria if indeed they were 500B GDP would be all over Africa - like South Africa with 300B GDP. See you GDP is fake.

As for Nairobi - it competing with Joburg for HQ of multinational interested in Africa.

Someone here has been trying to keep count of companies that have choosen Nairobi as their Africa base and list is endless
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1559138

Already saw that thread. I’m on skyscrapercity. If you noticed there was the mention of Lagos and Johannesburg as continental hubs for investors and maybe Nairobi may catch up...

rvp2017:
South African companies flocking to Nigeria and yet officially you have bigger GDP than them. You don't see the irony there. In kenya they came and found the competition too stiff for them and bailed out for Nigeria. Okay the FDI investment that I see listed there is countable - for a country or city like Lagos that is a pity. Nearly all those companies are in kenya and have been there some for decades.Kenya and Nairobi - the FDI source for east africa countries - and Nigeria if indeed they were 500B GDP would be all over Africa - like South Africa with 300B GDP. See you GDP is fake.

As for Nairobi - it competing with Joburg for HQ of multinational interested in Africa.

Someone here has been trying to keep count of companies that have choosen Nairobi as their Africa base and list is endless
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1559138

The Fdi count is uncountable like urs. Most countries are. I listed a few on the top of my head

Why do American companies flock to Kenya if they have a bigger gdp. Guess America is cooking its fake gdp.

I don’t believe Nigeria’s gdp is fake. It kinda makes sense. It has the largest population in Africa by far, 7th largest population in the world... plus Nigeria has oil. I mean look at India, they have a huge gdp but the country’s gdp per capita is less than Nigeria’s


And Nigeria companies are all over the continent. Jumia is in Kenya and other countries in Africa . Our banks are all over the continent. Dangote cement factories are all over the continent.

rvp2017:
Give me realiable GWH and we can argue about that. Theoretically capacity of power producers is nothing to shout about. I want to know what get supplied every hour.

Nigeria produces and transmits more electricity than Kenya but it’s not enough. We have a way bigger population- that’s y electricity is unstable . The amount we currently produce is too small for Nigeria.

You would be surprised to hear that Nigeria exports electricity.. it does

rvp2017:
The house can be made of clay or tin - but average Nairobi slum house - has 1) 24hrs of electricity 2) 24hrs of water 3) TV & even internet 4) sofa sets and are few minutes to CBD - they generally led better than life than average lagosians - who have to ran a generator a few hours a day and drink borehole water. And there is ongoing slum upgrading.

I’d rather be a middle class Lagosian with money to buy the latest smartphone, afford a car, be able to travel. Be able to invest as well. I mean think about it. I’d rather be middle class in Somalia or any other poor country than to be poor and live in a nasty slum in Kenya.

Hope the slums get renovated. The ones in Lagos too

rvp2017:
The same way GDP is not "eaten" - having say 10,000 MW of power while the real GWH - gigawatts hours that power is actually available is less than 2,000MWS - is the fallacy that is Nigeria. Now the talk is to add 3,000MW to Lagos - how will that help - when nobody pays for power - the power companies go bankrupt - the power producers turn off the turbines & generators - and people grow thinking regular supply of electricity is something to be dream about. Kenya has about 2,500mw of power - and nearly the whole country is on stable 24hrs power supply -the GWH is impressive.

Ur figures are wrong.Nigeria transmits 5,000mw having 7,000mw available thus the 2,000mw shortfall