₦airaland Forum

Atiku/PDP will still win in the SE but their votes will be around 1.8Million votes but Osinbajo/APC will get about 500,000 votes.

In the SS, the APC will have more impressive performance but PDP may have a slight edge. (APC=1.3 Million ,PDP= 1.5 Million)


Political parties account for about 60-70% of the success of each candidate in an election. This why when it comes to legal interpretation, the mandate belongs to the parties.

If Buhari had contested the 2015 election on the platform of APGA or Labour parties, he would have lost.

Perkins2018:
If the south east fails to produce the pdp candidate and Osinbajo becomes the candidate, do you think any northern can defeat him in SS/SE? You take online banta too serious.

You don't win or lose presidential election because of only ONE factor but because of several factors.

You have consistently maintain that if Osinbajo/APC Should contest in 2023, they will lose because Osinbajo is a Yoruba man.

This single factor that you have pointed out may be the reason why YOU and some other voters may not vote for them. Now my questions;

1) Do you think MOST voters will not vote for them because of this reason?


2) Are there other reasons why some voters will vote for them? Are these voters likely be be in the majority?

gidgiddy:
In other for a person to become president of Nigeria, that person must win majority votes in at least 4 of the 6 geopolitical zones. The SS/SE will not vote for Osibanjo, he is a nobody there. Infact, most people in the SE/SS keep wondering why another Yoruba man should be president after 8 years of Obasanjo and the SE has not har it and the SS only had one term. So that means that Osibanjo must carry his native SW as well much of the North.


The question any Osibanjo supporter should ask is why the North would vote Osibanjo when they could vote another Northerner and make him president

If Jonathan were to be in the APC, he stands a good chance to win in 2023.

Esseite:
The North would partner with the SS, get the SE in the bag, at the same time the SW and SE would be satisfied due to their never ending squabble.. there would be little or no succession cry and no zoning agreement cry either..

The signs are glaring.. guess what, GEJ might even be the one to nominate a candidate.

You speak out of ignorance sir.


Agent-Host-Environment are the three basic factors that determine the spread of a disease like COVID-19.
1) The Agent: the same or slightly different variants of the same virus.

2) The Host: the average age of people in the US and Nigeria differ.

The genetics of Nigerians is different from the Americans.
Social factors like economic capacity for international travels or even air traffic is higher in the US than in Nigeria. This particular factor aid the spread of COVID-19.

3) The Environment: Temperature, Rainfall and humidity in the US, Italy and Spain are different from those in Nigeria

IamPlato:
where is el rufai and kyari?


Compare Newyork With Nigeria, who Is More Standard Enough To Contain A Virus Like this?


Our Government Have No Where To Fly To that Is Why They Are Still Here, If The Virus Is Here They Would Do everything Possible to Contain It, not Because They Love Us But Because They Are in Here With Us and Can Be Infected.

They Would Do All They Can And Even Pay Nigerians To Stay Indoors.


I Wish You See What I See

There is no need for speaking in parables sir.



Democracy is a process, it's not an event. Elections should be like a sport, those who win today may not win tomorrow.

Democracy in Nigeria goes beyond the 2023 presidential election which like all other elections will be contested by political parties and not regions/tribes.


1) Are ALL Northerners in the APC?

2) Are ALL Southwesterners in the APC?

Ezemust:
let the brotherhood btwn west n north continuo.but when the big brother strike a blow let non of them tell an outsider

If Osinbajo wins APC presidential ticket in 2023, his candidacy will have strengths and weaknesses.

You are not being objective by having a fixed mindset on what you perceive will be his areas of weaknesses. You didn't consider what will be his areas of strengths.

If you want to do a clear, objective and unbiased analysis, you will have to do SWOT analysis of Osinbajo/APC candidacy.



Great leaders, Military Commanders, Political Juggernauts, Corporate Chief Executives and all highly successful people don't take critical decisions by thinking only in one fixed direction.

They even have extra plans for their own possible failures, they anticipate betrayals before it happen, they consider elements of surprise, they estimate the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents as well.

gidgiddy:
APC was all about getting President Jonathan out. APC would have never won if they hadnt fielded a Notherner like Buhari. Thats why the North voted for the party, for them, it was "operation bring back power to the North"

In 2023, there will be no Buhari and the North are not keen to lose power. If APC fields a Southerner like Osibanjo, then APC will be seen by 5he North as no longer representing their interests, which is about holding on to power as long as possible. The North will rally behind another Northerner and produce the president

No matter how much anyone thinks the North loves Osibanjo, they can never love him as much as one of their own remaining in power

If Osibanjo has no support from the North, how will he ever be president? The SS/SE wont vote for him and all the votes in the SW cannot make him president

I have more chances of visiting planet Mars than Osibanjo ever becoming President in 2023

It seems you have a better understanding of Nigerian politics than giddygiddy

Ezemust:
the north could'nt vote buhari in in 2011.the north collabo with south east n south south vote obj in.the north collabo with south west to vote buhari in 2011 and 19.no zone can put anybdy in pawa alone

Every major contender for the Presidency will have areas of strengths and weaknesses.


What you just described may be an area of weakness for Osinbajo in 2023 but there are several other factors that are areas of his strengths.

gidgiddy:
What I see is that the North has no intention to concede power to the South. The Northern Elders Forum and the Arewa Consultative Forum have all said that Presidential rotation is not in the constitution and they do not recognize it. Power is very important to the North and they wont allow it to go down south for 8 years. Last time they did that with Obasanjo, they bitterly regretted it

In 2023, the Northerners will rally behind a fellow Northerner, no matter the party, and ensure he wins.

Osibanjo stands no chance as he will never be able to win votes outside his native SW

But we were told that Buhari has died since 2016 and it's Jubrin from Sudan that's ruling now.

Staro:
.
He's living on very expensive Steroids drugs that cost Nigeria
over a million Naira daily.

It's all artificial. He will return to his old self just after three months
of leaving office. By then he won't be able to spent so much taking
steroids

.

Innoson for President!

You can make your points without this childish insults.




The NEC of each party will determine how to pick their flagbearers. Each party has his catchments areas of strengths which is NOT the same for all parties.



The game is different from when Nigeria had only one dominant party called the PDP and general elections were just formalities to ratify and legalize the PDP arrangements.

LabDNA:
It is the greatest disservice to your common sense to pretend that ethicity and religion are not key factors in the political dynamics of the Nigerian politicosphere.

Self-deceit is not illegal. Have your fill.

Bros you don't seems to understand my points.

There's nothing you write on this forum, if it doesn't align with the PERSONAL interests of politicians, they won't support it.


For instance, there is no amount of thread opened on this forum about Igbo presidency that will make politicians like Atiku, Saraki, Tinubu, El-Rufai, Tambuwal, Osinbajo or Kwankanso to drop their presidential ambitions.


Atiku was the strongest proponents of zoning in the PDP primaries of 2011 and 2015 because such arrangements would be in his PERSONAL Interests and disenfranchised President Jonathan who was then his strongest opponent.

However the same Atiku will strongly kick against zoning the PDP Presidential ticket in 2023 because such arrangements will hurt his PERSONAL ambition.


In reality,what we perceived to be collective interests is actually summation of several individual interests.

LabDNA:
Be not deceived!

The same active politicians come here to read our comments and gauge the feeling of their supporters and sometimes 'steal' our initiatives.

I have made comments here and the next day open newspapers to find some political writers rehashing the same comments and ideologies I propagated, in parts or whole. You underestimate the reach of this forum.

Pre-2015 Lie Mohammed your renowned 'Joseph Goebell' of APC, was literarily sleeping on this forum day and night, fishing for anti-GEJ and anti-PDP comments which he usually published the next day on the The Nation's newspapers no matter how inflammatory.

Go do your findings.

Let me explain to you how Political parties determine the success of candidates.


1) Political parties like the PDP and the APC have party structures with members, supporters and fans in every ward in each LGAs.

2) These party structures go out during campaigns to convince prospective voters to vote for their parties.

3) There are politicians in every ward, LGA and States who have PERSONAL ambitions to be councillors, Chairmen, House of Assembly Members,House of Reps members,Senators, Governors, Ministers, Ambassadors, etc.

These people rely on political parties to actualize these dreams and the possibilities of achieving these dreams will be brighten if their parties also produce the president.

4) Tribal/Regional solidarity may not necessarily work for the PERSONAL interests of certain politicians. Infact, it may work against it in some cases.

Non-members of political parties wrongly assume that working for one's tribesman to become the President will always meet one's PERSONAL interests. This is a great fallacy.

For instance,if Amaechi and Timi Sylva had worked for Jonathan in 2015, they won't be where they are today.



5) If these aspirants/contestants work for the opposition or allow the opposition party to win easily in their domains, they will be working against their own successes.
For instance, APC Governorship candidates in Sokoto, Delta or Adamawa State will mobilize for the APC presidential candidates in their domains. Allowing PDP to have it's ways in these States mean it will become twice more difficult for them to win in their own elections.

Tribal and/or regional solidarity are inferior to PERSONAL Survival/Interests in Nigerian politics.


5) Awolowo like all other mortals had his areas of strengths as well as weaknesses.

He has played his parts in the evolution of Nigerian democracy and political development.
No matter how pleasant or unpleasant these parts were, they can't continue to determine our political destiny perpetually.

Life is dynamic and change is inevitable.

LabDNA:
No sentiments here just facts. Awolowo also did all the horse-trading in the world, including killing and insulting Ndigbo just so he can be in the good books of the North, he failed severally at the national level.

That Tinubu emptied his treasury to grease the palms of 306 house of reps members to elect Gbaja cannot be replicated at the national level. Alumajiris will collect your 'kaffir' money and still vote their own, the East will also collect your money and stick to their electoral belief.

Do not be too confident, amala politics starts and end in your enclave.

People who aren't members of any political parties don't fully understand how politicians and political parties operate.

They wrongly assume politicians join politics primarily to protect their tribal interests. However, in reality SELF interests is the major and motivating factors why politicians join politics.


Political parties account for 70% of the success or failures in an election.

This is the reason why three and half parties fused together in 2013 to form the APC.


This is the reasons why seasoned politicians seek to control their parties.




The candidate of the strongest party in 2023 will win the election.

LabDNA:
I know yorubas like the back of my palm and I know how they think.

Let me tell you the gimmick they'll try to use in 2023.
Before APC primaries They'll sponsor 5th columnists agents within PDP to blackmail, goad, and try to armtwist the PDP to surrender their ticket to a Southerner (not because they love the south but to make yoruba APC chances brighter).
They'll even take it further trying to ensure a yoruba man gets the ticket.
Ofcourse it will not work. I've written to PDP warning them about the danger of being forced to hold primaries before APC holds theirs.

Let APC prop up their candidate as the ruling party, if yoruba picks it, then a walk over for PDP as they have no option to defeat them with a northerner.
If the South East picks the APC ticket, then truly zoning has been honored and PDP will have no other option than to comply pick an Easterner or lose it's greatest support base south of the Niger.

The bottom line is that if a yoruba gets the APC ticket, it means zoning has died and that makes a northerner also eligible for the PDP ticket. The East in the PDP should not be goaded and stampeded into facing the yorubas on APC ticket, since yorubas do not believe in zoning, then let them go and face certain failure at the polls like Awo did against Shagari.

Most of the Igbo commentators on this forum are actually between 21-30 years of age. They don't have adequate knowledge of how Nigerian politics work and thus approach political debates with emotional outbursts which is not supported by Logic or History.





Experienced and matured Igbo politicians like Peter Obi, Ike Enweremadu, Dave Umahi etc don't make these kinds of statements.

Oshigun:
Let him continue fooling himself and deluding other Igbo with their usual resolve for blaming all their woes on Yorubas.

Intelligent men know Igbo Presidential ambition, for reasons entirely unconnected with the Yorubas, is a non-starter at the most important level of all. I.e Political Party level. It is an open secret the PDP does not have Igbos in its plans as far as a presidential candidate is concerned.

Whereas the Igbos in the APC themselves dare not raise their hand out of shame for what their kinsmen and region have done to humiliate, hound and repel APC.

When the APC and PDP Presidential voting caucuses, including many non-Yorubas, show no interest in an Igbo candidate, why are the hateful Igbo blaming the Yorubas for that instead of trying to sell themselves at Party level.

It is like a hurdler in a race who is too short to clear the first hurdle now blaming able contestants who have gone past 7 hurdles already and are approaching the finishing line.

I expect Igbos to be shouting "betrayer" at Yorubas when the candidates of the APC and PDP emerge and non is Igbo because, once again, Igbos will refuse they are the cause of their own downfall and not Yorubas.

All their focus is on Yorubas today rather than reaching out to the caucuses and influence groups in the APC and PDP. In reality, how many Northern PDP and APC primary voting delegate will go for an Igbo candidate? Only disgrace loading for the Igbo candidate with the way Igbos are carrying on currently.

Can you please explain how you will enforce this zoning stuff you keep saying?

How are you going to stop Non-Igbo Nigerians from seeking their parties' presidential ticket or even constesting the main election?

Igbo presidential aspirants will not make this kind of statements.

LabDNA:
Oga you sound like a dementee, you don't have the right to tell the East how to vote, especially for a known shariaist and nepotist, we've voted Shagari and Yar'adua who are northern before. But buhari remains a no-no and have vindicated the East with his mental incompetence. He is not greater than the north or nigeria, when he dies, politics will still go on.

Vote pattern or not, the basic principle of zoning if it must be respected to the 't', makes yoruba unqualified to be president in 2023.

Good a thing, yoruba have never successfully made a yorubaman president, your electoral fortunes are not better than the East. Go and ask Falaye and Awo in his grave. You started helping candidates to win elections just yesterday in 2015 since 1950s when Awo and Zik started contesting elections.

So historically speaking, your electoral values and records are still poor compared to the East.

Take a sit and learn.

This is very hilarious.

Each political party will determine how to chose their presidential candidates.

Those that want to use 'zoning' will decide where they want to zone to.


It has nothing to do with Yorubs (out of over 300 tribes in Nigeria).

LabDNA:
The SS is not as greedy you SW and are ready to support their cousins in the SE, you people are desperate to avoid facing the North in PDP because you want to use propaganda to defeat another southerner and hijack the presidency. No, it will not work.

If yoruba will not respect zoning and step down for equity and allow both tickets to be zoned to the SE who have never tasted presidency since democracy returned, they'll have to face the north.

When you are stopped from stealing the presidency, we can start the zoning counting again all over, since you lots are averse to justice and equity. No sentiments here.

The south consist of so many tribes with so many politicians.




How can the whole South unite?
How do you enforce this unity?

mrvitalis:
No southerner can be president without the south uniting part is just a logo ....

Can we meet privately, pls?

Precious4real50:
Everyday new Igbo topic




I still remain Ada ogwashi

Congratulations to you on realizing how democracy works... you have inalienable right to vote for ANY.

However you should not question other citizens on who they vote for.

Blackfire:
I didn't vote for buhari in 2015 and 2019...



I can give you this assurance... I will campaign and vigorously vote for him in 2023.




Not only you people are mad

Igbo Amaka



UK Amaka!

You are talking about a concept that you don't fully understand- ZONING.

Let me explain it to you but by bit.

1) Zoning was first suggested as a vehicle for political cohesion in Nigeria by Dr Alex Ekwueme during the formative days of the NPN in 1977-78.

2) The NPN adopted zoning in it's constitution as a winning formula by appealing to ALL sections of Nigeria that they will get shares of the National cake because party and Government positions will be shared and rotated accross board.

3) The PDP borrowed the NPN winning formula called 'Zoning' and incorporated it into it's Constitution.

This zoning is not in the Constitution of Nigeria or the Constitution of other parties.

4) In 1999, the PDP zoned it's presidential ticket to the South. ALL Geo-Political zones in the South contested for the ticket but Gen Olusegun Obasanjo clinched it.

5) In 2007, the PDP re-assessed it's zoning formula and rezoned it's presidential ticket to the North. The then Gov Umoru Yar'Adua defeated other contestants to clinched the ticket.

6) In May, 2010, President Yar'Adua died and was succeeded by his deputy, Dr Goodluck Jonathan who contested the 2011 PDP presidential Primaries despite the fact that this action violated the PDP zoning arrangements


Most Nigerian voters were sympathetic to his candidacy because he is from a minority tribe and we all stood up for him and he won the elections.
7) In 2015, despite that the PDP hasn't changed it's zoning of the ticket to the North and GEJ had earlier promised to do one term, he contested again but he was defeated at the general election.

In 2015, after losing the election, the PDP again zoned it presidential ticket to the North and maintained the same in 2019.

9) In all of these, no region enforced or disregard zoning but individual political parties and politicians did.

10) Asking the Yorubas or any tribe to obey zoning is inappropriate.
It's the political parties and NOT tribes that can decide where they will zone their presidential ticket to.

11) The PDP, which ought to be sympathetic to the cause of the Igbo Presidency is opposed to it but rather toying with the idea of still zoning it's ticket to the North in 2023 and this is NOT the fault of the Yorubas.

12) In my personal view, interested Yoruba, Fulani, Nupe, Ebira, Ijaw politicians who nurse presidential ambitions should run in 2023 and damn any consequences.
It's better to contest and lose than succumbing to cheap political blackmail by not constisting.




In Summary, it is ONLY the political parties that can determine where they will zone their presidential ticket to.

mrvitalis:
You really don't get it ...we are saying to yorubas obey zoning or we show u that not only you can be crazy enough to vote north it's simple

Igbos would never stand by n watch north mess up a Yoruba man , reason we took obasanjo as our own ...even if we didn't want to we were vocal on sowore it's our nature

Igbo would never support a Yoruba man in 2023 not out of hate or envy but simply because it's not right an d it's unjust ....even if it was south south turn or middle belt turn we would still do the same thing

Igbos really don't care about political position reason we can let it out untill yorubas learn