₦airaland Forum

But Atiku sef…

Despite all the campaign against him and his obsession with Dubai, he still can’t stop going to Dubai.

How are we sure he will be staying in Nigeria if he wins?

Lol!

Those ones are now Obidient.

senatordave1:
Why would atiku win gombe? Many of the Christians that would have voted atiku will vote obi.dankwambo is in two minds,the pdp candidate in gombe barde has divided the party.almost all defections in gombet are yo apc.you csn see massive ward to ward campaign for tinubu in gombe,how many have you seen for atiku? If care is not taken,atiku will lose taraba and bauchi.
You can see atiku efforts in katsina,sokoto,jigawa and those are where he will likely win not gombe

Whatever you see regarding ward to ward campaign in Gombe, is for Governor Inuwa who is seeking re-election and not necessarily for Tinubu.

I accept that Tinubu might benefit from it because most Gombe people are illiterates, i don’t think it would be enough to win the state.

Bauchi is a peculiar case actually and who wins the state might end up depending on who wins the battle between Atiku and Bala.

But who said Elzakizaky endorsed Obi?

All these Tinubu BATstards will create fake news by themselves and debunk it themselves just to score pointless points.

Ndi ala!

Meanwhile, when did someone’s lawyer turn his spokesman?

seunmsg:
There will be no second ballot in as much as Tinubu gets the simple majority. APC has solid structure in every single state in the north. So, getting 25% or more in all 19 northern states won’t be an issue. He will win all the 7 SE states so that brings the number to 26. He will also get 25% in Edo, Ebonyi, Bayelsa, FCT, Imo, Cross River and Delta.

So, why are you projecting a second ballot when it is clear that Tinubu can win at the first ballot?

Asides from the 6 Southwest states, Tinubu will not get 25% of votes cast in any other Southern state.

senatordave1:
Obi will win more states than atiku.but leave ss for,you yourself said you aren't sure of happenings there.I am sure of him winning edo and rivers but forget other states especially bayelsa.obi presence is weak there.
The campaign in north central showed obi performing abysmally.he did better in sw,those are pointers and indicators.obi crowd yesterday was his second highest after edo.but I'll still give benue and plateau to obi.obi is sure of winning 9 states.atiku is sure of 2 nw states and 3 ne states,2 ss states.am not sure of nc.tinubu is sure of 6 sw,3 nc states.(you saw the bantupage polls on Niger),2 nw states and 3 in ne.
So a runoff is likely between tinubu and obi as obi will win more states

Lol!

Atiku won’t win any state in the entire south. Take that from me. Obi is winning 11 states of Southsouth and Southeast.

In the northeast, Tinubu is only sure of Borno and Yobe. I know you are thinking he would win Gombe but you are wrong; Atiku is winning Gombe.

Of the 3 of Atiku, Obi and Tinubu, Tinubu is winning the least number of states.

Jones4190:
where did they write that they resign to support obi?

So, who do you think they want to support?

Tinubu? Or Sowore?

Goodluck to two of them.

At least she’s not underaged.

She open her two korokoro eyes accept to marry grandpa for whatever reason.

Their business abeg!

For now, all my energy is focused on disproving all the lies of Tinubu urchins and ensuring Peter Obi becomes president.

The last time PDP held a campaign rally was in Imo before Christmas.

Since then, no one has set eyes on Atiku.

But instead of Tinubu fanboys to ask after Atiku, a presidential candidate, they were fixated on Yusuf Datti Ahmed, praying he abandons the Obi ticket.

Where is Atiku?

More

Garfield1
Kyase
Moh247
Ihordspy

Is Atiku still winning Delta like this?

One of the lies that Labour Party and Peter Obi opponents use to comfort themselves is that “Southeast and Southsouth are traditional PDP zones and will vote PDP no matter what”.

We have tried so many times to educate some of these people to understand that Labour Party has flipped the two regions but they always prefer to argue blindly.

Another watery line they use to comfort themselves is that Atiku will win Delta because of Okowa. But we have tried to paint a picture of the situation on ground in Delta but they would rather comfort themselves with a lie than accept the bitter truth.

Well, bring you happenings from Delta…

Ask yourself, if committed PDP members are doing this, what is the masses doing?

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

NothingDoMe:
You're doing great Penguin the bird of logic and reasoning.

The media will never allowed to be an agent of misinformation and misdirection of the masses in order to gazelle garagara everyone into voting a cognitively impaired candidate.

Lol

Thank you baba!

Chuksaluta:
Very detailed analysis, all these scenarios are likely. But I think PDP/NNPP will make a deal with Obi if they don't make the rerun. This is because they can get a better deal with LP, unlike APC with heavyweight politicians.

Another point is that a rerun will likely happen after the governorship elections and Federal House of assembly. So commitment by elected politicians to major parties will drop.

Exactly!

I forgot that there would be intense lobbying, and the other two candidates who didn’t make the rerun are likely going to choose a side. It will be intriguing.

ahiboilandgas:
you try if Atiku and obi run off .Atiku will get more votes! All those apc votes in north will move to him to consolidate .

You have a point.

Especially when you consider that it will be by simple majority this time.

Obi should win at first ballot o.

chinchum:
Tinubu will perform better than Buharis. 2019 performance in all 17 southerns states against PDP. By better i do not imply win, but a reduced loss or a larger win. Tinubu will win in at least 15 states. Very realistically, in all 6 sw states, borno,yobe,gombe, zamfara, kebbi,katsina, kwara,kogi and Niger. There are many other states in the north west he may win, but i have choosen to leave open, take note i did not include Kano.
Tinubu will achieve a minimum of 25% in at the very worst 8 other states. Making it 23 states.

Obi will win about 10-11 states at most, i prefer to overrate my opponents.

Atiku will win 9-10 states.

I am projecting Tinubu with 12.5 million votes, Atiku with 11 million votes and Obi with 6.5 million votes.

A run off between Tinubu and Obi means an easy win for Tinubu. Although the likelihood of a run off is less than 30%

I like the fact that you tried to be realistic with your projections but you spoiled it by adding figures.

As at today, no one knows what the figures can be; you can talk percentages, but not figures.

Again, Southsouth and Southeast combined has 11 states and Obi is winning all of them. Then you add Benue and Plateau and Abuja. Or do you have other candidate who you think would win in those states?

RealLagosBoy:
There's nothing Urchins can do. Any Urchin that do anyhow will receive wotowoto.

Lol!

Just stay safe sir

Tor!

One of the 32 Bishops that attended Shettima’s unveiling spotted.

Ndi ala!

9jaNoBeLagos:
My brother and I have successfully collected our PVC at exactly 1400 hours.

Our votes, that of our 5wives and 35 Children are for Peter Obi.

2023 is a done deal.

Edit and remove your address.

Says someone who joined the dissident G-7 Governors in 2014 to rebel against Jonathan because of Zoning.

Whatever you see Wike and his group doing now, these guys did it first.

But his own was worst…

Because while 5 of the governors later decamped to APC with Atiku, this guy, Sule Lamido and Aliyu Babaginda of Niger State stayed back in PDP and sabotaged Jonathan from the inside.

Now, he feels he has any moral background to talk.

Ndi ala!

Ngeneukwuenu, come and see that Yusuf Datti has abandoned Peter Obi has allowed his wife to continue joining the campaign trail.

Una go tire las las.

Firstorderwizard:
I resumed work today and spent #1600 on transport to and fro on transport as against #800 last year.

Th worst part is that the PMs is not even available. Monday it will likely go up to #2000 per day for transport only on meagre less than 60k salary.

I just feel like resigning to focus on my pos side hustle

Nigerians feel weak and defeated already.

That’s why some people are right to say that 2023 election is very significant in Nigeria’s history. It is the last exercise before some people who still have hope in this country loses every hope completely; especially if either of Tinubu or Atiku wins.

But before then, I will never stop reminding Nigerians that we wouldn’t be talking about fuel subsidy and fuel scarcity today if not for Tinubu’s malicious and wicked opposition politics in 2012 when Jonathan removed fuel subsidy. He gathered his urchins to Ojota and everywhere in Lagos to disrupt movement and businesses until Jonathan gave in.

It’s over 10 years already, and we would have outgrown every effect that subsidy removal would have brought.

Today, that same Tinubu is using subsidy removal as one his campaign promises and people are cheering him on and you say thunder will not fire them.

Millimann:
This one realized that he wrote nonsense while trying to counter Penguin2. He had to delete his post.

All these agbado BATstards.

Oh!

You saw it, right?

I’m so mad at myself for not quoting him fast enough before he deleted what he wrote.

I wanted to go get screenshots from pages of the constitution to use and counter him only to come back and see that he has deleted his comment.

E pain me…

Mynd44:
… .

Why did you delete your comment after accusing me of trying to misinform the public, sir?

Or did you realize you were the one who wanted to misinform the public?

I regret not quoting you before going to look for screenshots of facts I would use to counter your accusations against me.

At your stage on Nairaland, you are supposed to know those who let emotions rule their judgment through their support for incapable and frail candidates, and practical and reasonable people on Nairaland who are always logical and practical irrespective of whether it favours them or not.

Everything I wrote up there are facts as stated by law except for those that are my personal opinions which I stated so.

The constitution says that the person with simple majority (without getting spread) will go into a runoff with the candidate who won the most states (not spread).

Let’s not misinform the public.

Ngiyaponga!

onez:
Obi will win at first ballot. The voter turnout in NW and NE will be reduced. Hardship is already resetting people's brain there. Disillusion is setting in. There is this silent and mutual agreement that only an Igbo man will leapfrog this country to greatness. A lot of folks will give Obi a chance in the north. The voter turnout in the SE and SS will be exceedingly high. I have high confidence that Obi will win at first ballot. 25% is also easy for Obi. 11 states in SS and SE is in the bag. 6 states in SW making it 17. 4 in NC making it 21. 2 in NE (taraba and Adamawa) and kaduna making it 24 states.

Realistic projections but Tinubu BATstards will disagree.

seunmsg:
Peter Obi supporters are finally realizing that their candidate has not realistic path to win the election on the first ballot. They are now toying with the idea of a possible second ballot.

Sadly, there will be no second ballot. Tinubu will win on the first ballot. In the unlikely event of a clear winner not emerging from the first ballot, Peter Obi will not finish in the top two so he won’t even be on the second ballot.

Your deluded projection that Tinubu will win only 10 states is just like an Ipob member making himself happy that a President Trump will make Biafra a reality. It’s absolute nonsense. For clarity, Tinubu will win all the SW states, Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Nasarawa in north central, Bornu, Yobe and Gombe in north east, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara and Kebbi in north west. He will also get over 25% of total vote cast in Edo, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Bauchi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Adamawa.

And yes, Atiku is going to win easily if there is a second ballot irrespective of who is the opponent. APC voters in SW and all over the country will rather support Atiku instead of the bigoted Peter Obi. Head or tail, Peter Obi will not be president.

So funny of you to think that Tinubu will get up to 10% of votes cast in any Southeast state. I don’t know about Southsouth, but you see southeast, forget it.

Again, you are overestimating Tinubu in Northwest, but carry on.

Meanwhile, Obi will win at first ballot.

Some projections have thrown up the likelihood of a presidential run-off election in the 2023 presidential election for the first time in the history of Nigerian election. This is because of the emergence of four formidable front-liners for the election, in an exercise that has hitherto been a two man race. It has become so rife that even INEC, for the first time, said they have ordered for extra ballot papers in preparation for a likely run-off election.

But while the supporters of each candidate will give you a thousand and one reasons why their candidate will win at first ballot, the likelihood of a run-off should not be ruled out.

What The Law Says About Who Should Make It To A Run-off.

The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria already envisaged the likelihood of a presidential runoff election and made provision for such. It states that in the eventuality that there many presidential candidates in a presidential election and none of them secures the constitutional provision to be declared victorious at first ballot, the candidate with the highest number of votes cast, will go into a runoff election with the candidate who won the most number of states.

Now, with that constitutional provision in mind, which candidate do you see winning the highest number of votes cast and which do you see winning the highest number of states?

My Projection

With Atiku seeming to have the masses of the north singing his name, and considering that over the time, the north records the highest voter turnout, I’m projecting Atiku to win the Simple Majority votes. But it is also tricky here because if Atiku fails to get the votes he’s hoping to get from the south and those states throw their weight behind Peter Obi, Obi might likely flip that position and get the simple majority and only fall short of spread.

On who wins the most states…. Now, this is tough one. But let’s suppose Atiku wins simple majority due to millions of northern votes and the struggle for who won the most states is between Obi and Tinubu …

Now, every pundit, including opponents, agrees that Peter Obi will win Southeast and Southsouth. That’s 11 states. Similarly, oppositions have conceded Plateau, Benue and Abuja to him. And that gives you 14 states; this is what is practical, empirical, factual, verifiable and demonstrable. But if you permit me to join those who claim Peter Obi will flip Lagos, then you 15 states for Obi.

On Tinubu, he’s likely going to win all of Southwest states. That’s 6 states. Now, add Kwara and Kogi, due to affinity with the Yoruba, and Borno and Yobe, due to Kashim Shettima, that’s 4 states plus 6, which makes it 10 states. Again, in the Northwest, people have been saying Tinubu will win Zamfara due to Mattawale’s dedication to his campaign, which will make it 11 states. Some of his supporters have also argued that he is also likely to win Gombe due to Governor Yahaya Inuwa’s vigorous campaign for him. So let’s add Gombe, and you have 12 states. Or should we add Nasarawa because Governor Sule is also sincere with his campaign for Tinubu and APC chairman is from there? Then you have 13 states. This is what is factual, practical and empirical for Tinubu, but he has a lot of probables surrounding him.

Note: If Obi succeeds in winning Lagos as some are projecting, then, that’s minus one for Tinubu which will reduce him to 12 states.

Likely Surprises…

Before I conclude, I make due to point out some of the likely surprises that the presidential election might spring.

In Nasarawa…. Peter Obi might end up winning this state when you consider that there is a demography of about 55% Muslims and 45% Christians (some have said they are 50/50, but I don’t think I agree with that). Now, if the Christians end up voting in bloc for Peter Obi and the Muslims split their votes between Tinubu and Atiku, what do you think will happen?

In Kaduna…. Even residents of Kaduna are attesting to the fact of the growing popularity of Labour Party in the state, maybe due to Datti. Add that to Southern Kaduna voters. Now, if the Muslims split their votes between Atiku and Tinubu, and Southern Kaduna voters vote in bloc for Peter Obi, with some little fraction of Muslim votes due to Datti, what does that tell you?

Then Taraba…. Taraba has always followed the voting pattern of the south (southeast and Southsouth ) since 1999. People mistake this for loyalty to PDP but I think it’s wrong because if you argue they are loyal to PDP then you can equally argue that PDP will still win Southeast because the region has voted PDP since 1999. So, in essence, Obi might just spring a surprise and win this state. But that’s speculative.

My Prediction

Lastly, I’m predicting that if Atiku and Obi make it to the runoff, then Obi will win due to southern solidarity because more Southwest voters are likely going to be persuaded to vote Obi.

If Obi and Tinubu advance to the runoff, Tinubu will win in the morning because core northern voters would rather vote a yam as Nigerian president than vote an Igbo man. Obi should avoid going into a runoff with Tinubu.

But if Atiku and Tinubu advance to runoff, then Atiku wins because Southsouth and Southeast will easily vote Atiku.

So, there you have it. What do you disagree with in my projections and which two candidates do you see making the runoff?

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

Are you sure that’s the woman?

I was thinking she didn’t show up for the event.

And nothing about the APC candidate?

Jokers recruited by APC to dance naked at the village square.

Alex Otti is the next governor of Abia.

Lol

“They are IPOB members” - Tinubu BATstards.

Tinubu urchins won’t know what hit them by February.

They think it’s by crowd renting but them go still see the one wey pass Beatrice.

Workch:
Kwankwaso being a VP to Obi will not be effective enough to make Obi win the election. The Igbo factor will still make people not vote for Obi in NW and NE. It will amount to People in NW and NE seeing Atiku and Tinubu as no1 and 2 option. Kwankwaso will not be able to deliver much as a VP aspirant.

The fact that kwankwaso is in the race and is going to scatter APC and PDP votes in NW and NE is a plus for Obi.

This is the most efficient way to steal votes from APC and PDP and make those votes utterly useless because kwankwaso will not win the election.

You are right.

Besides, he would have been too influential to be loyal to Peter Obi if they won.

God just perfected his work by making him refuse to align with Obi.

after4:
It is you guys that didn't experience kwankwaso's governance that take him serious. How is kwankwaso better than buhari?
Buhari is a bigot, kwankwaso is a bigger bigot
Buhari is a religious fanatic, kwankwaso is
Kwankwaso has this mentality of northern supremacy and that is why he refused to step down for obi, you can see his comments later on.
Mark my word any where, this is is best opportunity he just lost
He will never have another opportunity to aso rock for any reason

Think about it. If Obi/Datti ends there tenure,
and obi did well which we believe by God's grace, Ahmed Datti will easily get the youths support and after that, it will be a southern turn. That means the next opportunity for kwankwaso will be the next 16years. How old will he be then and will the youths pick him against younger contenders then? No

I am happy pride did not allow him. He is not a good person at all

You are right.

Maybe it was God that made him stubborn so that he would not accept to deputize Obi so that he won’t go close to power.

I think finally God has remembered this country because Obi and Datti are just perfect together.

Let’s pray they win.

BeardedmeatR:
Good thing is, Obj won't even dignify with a response. Same obj that held his hands to prevent him falling down in his house.

I think we should allow this criminal microphone licking urinating machine wail in peace.

Lol!

You think he’s not pained that OBJ endorsed Obi?

His urchins might try to paint the picture of the endorsement being worthless but Tinubu knows the weight it carries.