₦airaland Forum

RabbiDoracle:
Transcorp stock still has one major decline to do which will take out the pandemic low of 0.51. So around 47 kobo will be a good buy price.

FBN is on the same boat. Still needs to decline to 2016 low of 2.85.

What will cause it? I don't know.

While in this market. it is neva say neva. However, whatever what would bring both counters to above prices wld be a major black swan events (e.g Covid like) which would be general market impacting and not a single counter impacting.

Selah

Mpeace:
For Tony to stake over 15billion naira to retake control over transcorp, it shows there is some big value in the company.

he has always had the shares. he is just consolidating it into a single vehicle.
hence the transfer was done between United Capital.
Even the cross at 1.8 done earlier last week had always been with him / cronies
i doubt if he has bought any in the market yet.

Above notwithstanding, i am also sure Ote$ must have had a glimpse of the overall shareholding structure before he made his move also. Hence he believe he has a fighting chance

robobo:
TOE consolidates

Is the party / rally (of bid war) over

the party seems to be over. However, i think the days of sub N2 for transcorp seems to be over also (see FBNH price from Otedola shaking till date for direction)

Selah

robobo:
what is driving ote$?

merger of ughelli; Afam (Transcorp power) and Geregu power in sight?

bidding war likely to follow? (30-40% probability, while the shareholding structure looks similar to FBNH ( large fragmentation) it is not exactly the same (sizeable large chunk circa 10-20% still with a single person (TOE), which is not same scenario with FBNH).

why did TOE not pick the chunk up to protect his interest (no plausible answer)

or is Ote$ exploring the Cocacola Nigeria strategy? i.e. maintain a hold on a competitor in other to influence decision making in the competitor to your advantage (Cocacola Nigeria vs Limca saga / Elizade vs Briscoe motor saga)


Interesting days ahead

The Transcorp saga is eventually looking like the bolded (except otedola responds with a more audacious move, which is highly unlikely)

Selah

YoungBuffet:
Don't mind him, hope someone will take over UBA from him one day.

My take is that having seen what happened in FBNH and Transcorp (of which he is directly impacted), he would adjust on UBA for the following reasons

1. Because that is his crown jewel (and his financing arm i.e lifeblood)
2. Otedola shaking him might be a childplay if bigger moneybag (local / foreign) smells blood that there is probability of wrestling some of his coy from him.
3. In most, if not all his companies, he is a single largest shareholder and not the majority shareholder. There is a large difference between the two.

customstreet:
ACTIVISM INVESTING- A case study of Mr. Femi OTEDOLA.

Here are key takes away about this style of investors:

1. Activist investors buy minority stakes in public companies to change how they are run.

2. If they fail to persuade company managers, they may wage a proxy fight for board seats.

3. Some hedge funds or individuals specialize in activist investing while institutional investors may engage in it from time to time.

4. Investor activism may focus on maximizing shareholder value or on the company's social responsibilities.

5. The SEC has proposed tougher disclosure rules for activist investors that critics contend may make activism unprofitable

Here are list of companies he had used this style for:

1. First Bank Plc
2. Transcorp Plc

Which company is next?

Rather i would say what are the factors that attract activist investor (though i dont think that is what is happening in both you just mentioned)

onegentleguy:
Yet another Off Market Trade...

A total of over 5B (5,001,009,920 units to be precise) of TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION PLC were done as off market trade today April 26, 2023 @ N2.45 in three deals.

The deal was a negotiated one with UNITED CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED as both BUYER and SELLER.

TOE consolidates

Is the party / rally (of bid war) over

Lion123:
TOE doesn't really send anybody tbh. All that Foundation/Africapitalism ish is strictly to boost his ego. I like the guy sha.

i like the guy also for his grit and how far he has come despite his background but he should pity shareholders and others who supported him one way or the other and let the largesse trickle down more.

BabsO2:
Because UBA deposit liabilities, has been growing as fast or faster that SHF, perhaps UBA is trying to improve its CAR organically. FBNH has similar challenge / strategy to boost CAR sufficiently above the minimum required by CBN. As a result of this it's not advisable to dispense too much dividend as doing so, reduces the rate at which SHF grows. Access raised a special instrument to boost its
Tier 1 capital a couple of years ago. This has boosted its CAR hence can dispense more dividends. Will need to look through the annual report presentations to pick out the CAR. Or last year Stanbic-IBTC analysis display of CAR if I can get it.

The last full year result already put CAR above 25 which is comfortably above minimum regulatory of 15 , so it is not an excuse. UBA should increase the dividend payout. Na wetin shareholder eat (dividend) for them belle matter most to them

robobo:
The gap between UBA and Access would definitely widen for the rest of the year, and if no response from UBA by next dividend cycle then its new playmate / twin would be Fidelity while Access wld gravitate towards the other twin (GT/Zenith) and then possibly try displace one of them to form a new pair/ twin

.

No mind TOE. He dey do oversabi. How can he be paying 21% of EPS (1.1 paid out of 4.84) and be expecting proper valuation of UBA shares and without proper valuation be opening himsef up for a possible hostile takeover ( as currently going on in his Transcorp). Just because he don chop belleful before d result is declared, he is not mindful whether other people sef chop. No be wickedness be dat.

Mfunkynation:
This is fantastic from Access.
Never used to look into their wardrobe before.
This move by Access is a BIG BIG BLOW to UBA.
Fidelity will shock us with Dividend!

The gap between UBA and Access would definitely widen for the rest of the year, and if no response from UBA by next dividend cycle then its new playmate / twin would be Fidelity while Access wld gravitate towards the other twin (GT/Zenith) and then possibly try displace one of them to form a new pair/ twin

emmanuelewumi:
For Lagos State, dem no send you oooooo.


After submitting all the necessary documents in January 2023, they still asked me to pay an additional 500k based on their Best of Judgement from the tax office

But is it Legal to still ask of such? if not is their any reason why you did not explore legal option against LASG?

wld appreciate if you can share.

YoungBuffet:
no u can get the dividend payment notification from the registrar to use in filling your tax return if need be

Frangel:
No. For both individuals and corporates.

An efficient way to avoid tax. Some of our billionaires go for dividends. Total tax paid by them is not proportional to what they earn, given corporate tax at 30% and personal income tax upto 24% on chargeable income.

Lion123:
No.

Thank you i appreciate your responses

Lion123:
10%

After this 10% WHT, is the balance still subject to PIT (Personal Income Tax) if the dividend is paid to an individual?

Payunsin:
Otedola crazy oo. He can decide to dump all his transcorp holdings, make arond 60% gain an move on.
Boy yen ya were oo

Hw are you sure it was sold to him at prevailing market price for the execution day.

My small knowledge is that such chunk are only crossed. the price at which they are crossed in most cases are not always the deal price. i might be wrong though

robobo:
what is driving ote$?

merger of ughelli; Afam (Transcorp power) and Geregu power in sight?

bidding war likely to follow? (30-40% probability, while the shareholding structure looks similar to FBNH ( large fragmentation) it is not exactly the same (sizeable large chunk circa 10-20% still with a single person (TOE), which is not same scenario with FBNH).

why did TOE not pick the chunk up to protect his interest (no plausible answer)

or is Ote$ exploring the Cocacola Nigeria strategy? i.e. maintain a hold on a competitor in other to influence decision making in the competitor to your advantage (Cocacola Nigeria vs Limca saga / Elizade vs Briscoe motor saga)


Interesting days ahead

...

Lion123:
BTW, very valid point from yMcy56. Also hearing news that TOE and FO might be working on a deal for TOE to acquire FO's shares at a big premium in a padi padi offmarket deal, in which case retail shareholders will be screwed as the price will tank afterwards to enable TOE continue his accumulation. He was caught unawares by FO's moves and doesn't want to ever get blindsided again. My point is, be greedy but not too greedy. Exit when you've had a decent return.

. If this is true then TOE is overrated afterall. How come he was not aware (hence being caught unawares) that AMCON was hawking 5.56% since of Transcorp since Nov/Dec 2022 and he claim to be a major corporate player in Nigeria when he should have been the first person approached by AMCON for the sale.

essentialone:
now it is time to mop up Transcorp Plc?

what is driving ote$?

merger of ughelli; Afam (Transcorp power) and Geregu power in sight?

bidding war likely to follow? (30-40% probability, while the shareholding structure looks similar to FBNH ( large fragmentation) it is not exactly the same (sizeable large chunk circa 10-20% still with a single person (TOE), which is not same scenario with FBNH).

why did TOE not pick the chunk up to protect his interest (no plausible answer)

or is Ote$ exploring the Cocacola Nigeria strategy? i.e. maintain a hold on a competitor in other to influence decision making in the competitor to your advantage (Cocacola Nigeria vs Limca saga / Elizade vs Briscoe motor saga)


Interesting days ahead

RabbiDoracle:
Yes, UBA had lower debt loss than Zenith on GoG debt. 17.9B vs 58.6B. But Zenith bank took 123B impairments as seen in their report because that impairments contain loan losses to customers.

However UBA only took a total impairments of N41B (notes 12a and 12b) compared to gross loan loss of 82.8B (key audit matters) and GoG debt of N17.9B [these losses are N100B in total] . What happens to the remainder in the loan loss to customers?

Will UBA stagger these in the quarterly reports in 2023 financial year?

Ok boss i get your point now and your concerns are clearer, i would take a look and get back if need be.

Appreciate

RabbiDoracle:
Bro, read the key audit matters. There you will see the level of impairment exposures flagged by auditors.

Zenith had it and compare the impairments of Zenith in the P/L accounts with what was stated in the key audit matters.

ETI had it and then you compare the impairments of ETI in the P/L accounts with what was stated in the key audit matters.

Now UBA has it. So compare the info on the key audit matters with what was stated in the P/L accounts. Marked difference!

These differences should be raised in these banks' conference calls.

Oga Oracle

i have checked the Key Audit matters and i cant deduce anything untowards or should be of concern in it. it only mentioned the total loan size of UBA and the impairment figure which is available in the AFS and also the fact that the auditors tested the models and parameters used to arrive at the impairment figure, which is normal for statutory audits. yes i understand your concern that UBA impairment is quite low compared to peers (Zenith / ETI) but the concern here is the exposure to Ghana sovereign bond and not credit in itself. So if UBA is not as exposed to GoG as its peers it is normal that it would also be less impacted by the haircut arising from GoG bonds. or what do you think? would appreciate your further discussion on the issue

[quote author=RabbiDoracle post=121728393]Based on BabsO2 post,

Who know if this is why NSE banks reports are being delayed? Wanting to incorporate impairments for investment losses into their annual reports.

Especially Access that has been buying enu na Ana.

Last reported delay warning was from ETI yesterday.
[/quote

There would surely be impairment from the Ghana Restructuring on Nigerian Banks, however i believe it would be manageable. i even suspect that the N6b impairment done by UCAP might be related to Ghana Bond because they (UCAP) have a shop in accra

mendes911:
What if INEC comes with their usual "inconclusive results"?

i beg make them no come with that one oooooooo.

Anybody wey wan win make the person win

my own just be say make them no make the winning tortuous so tey the thing go come affect market

Agbalowomeri:
Warming up for post election bull
ASI should climb up 10% in coming days

i beg 10% no go do anything, make the thing do at least 20-30%

currentprice:
my TA bedsheet says 63 so 65 is possible

ok chief thanks

its necessary to keep sight of the Macro (ASI)

while watching the Micro (individual stocks) like a mother hen (with intensity)

Agbalowomeri:
Fasten your seat belt

where are we going?

54 or 65?

Coolcash1:
Load up Oando and thank me later!

Chief have they finally finalise the wuruwuru buy out. Shld we be expecting 100% or more final price from todays price. loll

Willie2015:
I also have paid services for global trading...

Hello Chief,

Can u please oblige the name for above?

Mpeace:
So today, the Chief justice if Nigeria resigns, after all the damage had been done.
I think Oando shareholders can appeal that judgment as interested parties. Who knows, they might just stand a chance.

.

This is exactly what i was saying vis a vis docility. The Lawyers/Shareholders should not just be despondent about the issues.

Mpeace:
Appeals from IST goes to the the Federal High court. The IST is a tribunal that acts like an inhouse dispute settlement mechanism. Unlike the courts, the I ST is not recognised in the constitution but only a creation of the statute of the national assembly. Its not a court of record. But I am not laughing in a hilarious mood. The laugh is due to the hopelessness of the situation. Lets hope a powerful shareholder fights back.

Thank you MPEACE.

I can now see the reason why he is trying to rechannel grievance on the issue to SEC/IST, it is because he knows nothing would come from that end.

which confirm my suspicion that he is vested on the issue.

whoever that have grievance on the issue should approach a court. it was the same Federal High Court that Oando itself approached on its protracted issue with SEC and not IST

Vaughanlanrewaj:
My advice for you sir, don't take what you typed up there so serious enough to go ahead and break the law.
When you go break the law and bank on people , you will be shocked that when the poo hits the fan, people will abandon you to your fate. MDs of Bank PhB ,Oceanic bank, Intercontinental, Finbank etc thought they were untouchable but today are in disgrace yet it is same institution and patriots who sent them to jail.

Instead of sounding so pessimistic, just add to other creative suggestions by Seunn11

I urge Oando minority shareholders to report Oando, Venus comstruction company, Ocean and Oil , the judge to SEC and petition the Investment and Secuties Tribunal(IST).
.
Quit the lamentations and pessimism. It is not funny either. Nation building is serious business.

Here is the SEC Investor relations number 094621168. Call them , send emails, mobilize , call out that Judge who issued that kind of judgement, report the Judge to NJC, take them all to court of public opinion!Expose those 14 minority shareholders and owners of Nexus Construction.
Some of us do not have any other country so can not talk down on our fatherland.

If you are conversant with history of legal judgements in capital markets even in Western nations, this kind of strange legal judgement on high stake issues like this should not give you reason to talk down on Nigeria. This is not unexpected but I have absolute faith in SEC and NGx that they will once again beat Oando management to it.
Nigerians are not and never stupid. We just do not want Oando, our own indigenous brand dead so we will engage constructively.
To destroy is easy but to build is hardwork. Oando is bigger than Wale and Boyo.

May God bless Nigeria for ever .

Oga what is the breaking the law part that you are harping on?

Did you read my post at all? if you did cant you see that my proposal was to approach a law court for an injunction, even after MPEACE stated that with the level of impunity in the country the injunction might still not be obeyed by the parties ? or does that look like someone who is breaking the law?

or are you a paid agent of Oando such that my open proposal is giving a cause for concern

why try redirect to SEC or IST when some members of the forum (e.g Wille and MPEACE) had already said nothing much can come from that end also

Mpeace:
My brother. Forget it. The country is gone and any lawyer that knows how things work will not even bother suing certain companies. Its no use. Many big companies in nigeria don't obey court orders any more. It started with the politicians and now many companies have joined. I am aware of some companies on NSE that flagrantly disobey court orders even with impunity. Zenith bank is chief, gtb, unity bank. If you are in the system you will understand better. Oando is also one of them, Dang group etc. You sue them its just a waste of money. They comply if they wish to.
Except a powerful figure with access to the cabal is interested, that oando delisting judgment stands.
Since they installed that new Chief justice things have not been the same.
My advice: just play along and pray they adequately compensate the said minorities. As for the 14 so called minorities that instituted the suit, be sure that they have already been adequately compensated.

while i agree with some of your assertion about impunity, if i am a lawyer and a shareholder of Oando, i would still get a court injunction against the DAYLIGHT ROBERRY about to happen and ensure SEC is joined in the injunction, not necessarily because i believe Oando and SEC would still not act with impunity but at least for it to be on record that a court of competent jurisdiction ruled against the DAYLIGHT ROBERRY but the parties still went ahead to do as they wish (there would be a time that a Pharaoh that does not know Joseph would come into place and at such point such injunction/ court pronouncement could come in handy)

Seunn11:
OODP of OANDO trying to forcefully take over other shareholders shares would be tantamount to Otedola asking court to force the other shareholders in FBNH to sell their shares to him.

If the court was presided by rational beings, they would have asked the 14 shareholders to go ahead to sell their own shares. Is that not what the stock exchange is meant for? Why joining others to your own desire to sell? Do we not have freedom to buy and sell?
If OODP want to buy more of OANDO shares, let them buy on the stock exchange!!!

This would definitely be setting a bad precedent in the country.

So Unilever International being the majority holder of Unilever Nigeria can just get some ragtag shareholders together to get a court judgement to buy other minority shareholders out because the ragtag investors believe that best suited THERE own interest.

if not for the fact that SEC/NSE are already compromised they should just throw the issue out and not entertain it at all.

Like you rightly said the right thing for any shareholder that is not happy with the current state of things is to sell his shares on the floor of stock exchange and not approach a court to be bought out then also request the court to also mandate that all other minority shareholders that have nothing to do with him (and his desire) should also be bought out