₦airaland Forum

Payunsin:
The 14 minority shareholders that went to court has already sold their shares during the last rally. No case to answer again.
Shareholders left are like me who is gambling on the long term prospects of Oando.
I see N25 in near term

Oga i beg no let me fight you oooooo

what is N25 ?

After 10 years in Wale dungeon

i beg na N65 we dey look as advised by Oga Zageee

Zagee:
The Greasley bear is the 16.50. You break that wall its all the way to 65 going by TA. But if indeed the leopard still refuse to change spot, 7.07 is the surest reality

I don buy multi pronged spear + plus multi dimensional bludgeon this time around, we must kill the bear at that junction because if you have been in Oando prison for a decade (a full ten year faa) then the only thing that could appease one’s soul is that 65 junction.

Streetinvestor2:
I like this question and equally interested in the answer. It get why

Na we wey don dey locked up for about a decade now dey ask that kind question

Oando go show people shege for this Second Era (First Era na Conocophillips) of NAOC



SECOND ERA

Act 1 Scene 2 just started yesterday

Oando na season film una no go wait watch am finish

essentialone:
Oando on Full Bid at 9.45

The second missionary journey

I beg TA people where should we be expecting deep pull back this time?

Is it 40 or 50 or 100


lollllllllllllllllllllllllllll

i beg ooooo

make dem dis Oando people stop messing with people mind with this topsy turvy movement ooooo

mental health is crucial ooooooo

lollllllllllllll

Ta lo laya kowa wo

OOOOO

Who get mind make hin come enter

OOOOO

BabsO2:
Going forward the EPS in Naira terms should be higher if the FX assets are working and not impaired. So if we do not see a step up in Q3 income streams it should suggest something is not right. If the income streams stay up from Q3, Q4 and 2024Q's then UBA has turned into a new beautiful chapter.

it might not immediately reflect in Q3 2023 but i would rather be patience to see the impact (of the addition to asset from revaluation) from q4/2023 to q1 2024, hence my statement that my view goes beyond 2023.

BabsO2:
Comprehensive income per share which ends up in shareholder funds was even higher at N23.43 per share

UBA BVPS jumped from N 25.494 to N 48.58 (Dec 2022 vs Jun2023) !!

really i dont understand how anyone that is holding this stock would sell it for less than 25 (half PBV)

Although it might look like the current performance would not be sustainable given that the major component ( revaluation) is one off but i beg to differ.

On a back of the envelope basis, my take is that UBA EPS going forward would sustain the upward of N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. The revaluation alone add over N800b to the bank asset which if invested in TB at average of 13% is over N100bn profit per year (without any cost) to the bank bottom line i.e. about 3.50 per share which if added to the normalised EPS (before revaluation) of about 4.5 per share would give about N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. Please note that this view goes beyond 2023 to as much as 3-4 years ahead (bar any major mishap from the management)

if 35% of the N8 per share is paid as dividend one would expect a dividend of at least N2.50 (both interim and final) which at N25 per share is a yield of at least 10%.

so i dont understand how any one would want to sell below N25, but to each mallam his kettle.

Selah

currentprice:
what am i seeing self.. UBA declared eps that is higher than gtb and zenith

Boss it is to be expected. the more you have foreign operations the more the revaluation (that is one side of it) the other side of it is the extent of dollar liquidity on your balance sheet

Jenny008:
It looks like I am going to go in at 14 NGN, can't find any offer below 14, is N14 a fair price for UCAP?

Chief tarry a while and dont be in a hurry

when you want to go into the market for medium - long term you just dont dive into the pool in one swoop, instead you go in bit by bit.

have a time spread for going in (say a week / two or month)

have a price range for the stock you want to buy (say btw 1-1.50)

then you execute above with clear diligence and discipline.

that would make a more meaningful entry than a dive.

my two cents

customstreet:
Absolutely.

It will definitely happened and many shareholders will go to bank smiling

Ask shareholders of Benue Cement Company Plc that metamorphised to Dangote Cement Plc, They will tell you a joyful story on how this exercise turned their fortune to good

Playing devils advocate.

the circumstances differ

in the case BCC; Alhaji was buying into it (meaning he was not holding a controlling interest and he needed to buy out the other/ minority shareholders to hold a control interest which would later allow BCC to be merged with) so there was a clear need from Alhaji which could have necessitated the juicy price you mentioned above


However, for Dang Sugar and Nascon, Alhaji already is the majority holder in both and there might not be a NEED that would necessitate the juicy price.

customstreet:
Hello Folks

I don’t know if you see what I saw

Dangotesugar Sugar Plc + Nascon Plc = Dangote Foods Plc

Time will proof me right

let assume its true

would the merger bring any positive to the shares?

RabbiDoracle:
This is not a Nigerian thing. I don't discuss politics. I'm talking about a global seizure. Businesses are going bust, financial issues up and down, people losing their jobs.

It will affect everything like gold, silver, crude oil, all commodities, crypt, equities, real estate traded funds. Everything.

It will be a waterfall.

As usual Oracle is always ahead of time, so the bull can still being enjoyed for a while (till the euphoria of baton passing is over)

However, the seed of Oracle sighting might already be in the offing with Germany ( biggest economy in EU) entering a Recession.

And the Russia/Ukraine War hurriedly approaching a pivotal stage (i.e. either the War ends soon or it start pulling in other countries in clear physical armed combat).


So enjoy while it last

Selah

thesilentone:
Zenith Volume: increased for the past 5 weeks with corresponding price action
GTCO Volume : increased for the past 3 weeks with corresponding price action

Your assertion that FPIs might be entering the market is valid.

i doubt this sir. FPI knowing there is high likelihood of devaluation with the incoming administration would rather want to wait till the devaluation to get more naira for there FX (rational economic behaviour + it brings certainty instead of speculation on the devaluation ). However, what is not in doubt is that there is positive net inflow into the market, so maybe it is local institutionals trying to front load the FPI (cos they are already denominated in Naira so no gain from devaluation) .

emmanuelewumi:
Don't be surprised if the power sector business of Transcorp is carved of the Transcorp group and then listed as a separate company.


It happened with Transcorp Hotel, and might happen again with Transcorp Power.


So be very careful and seek second opinion as per the purported value in Transcorp .


Things don't always go as expected with cowboys

TOE had already stated that he is looking to spin it off mayb in 5 years time.

mendes911:
Below N2. NSE is a Never Say Never.

i totally agree with you, hence the word i think. No certainty in this game

my response to Oga Rabbi showed same

RabbiDoracle:
Transcorp stock still has one major decline to do which will take out the pandemic low of 0.51. So around 47 kobo will be a good buy price.

FBN is on the same boat. Still needs to decline to 2016 low of 2.85.

What will cause it? I don't know.

While in this market. it is neva say neva. However, whatever what would bring both counters to above prices wld be a major black swan events (e.g Covid like) which would be general market impacting and not a single counter impacting.

Selah

Mpeace:
For Tony to stake over 15billion naira to retake control over transcorp, it shows there is some big value in the company.

he has always had the shares. he is just consolidating it into a single vehicle.
hence the transfer was done between United Capital.
Even the cross at 1.8 done earlier last week had always been with him / cronies
i doubt if he has bought any in the market yet.

Above notwithstanding, i am also sure Ote$ must have had a glimpse of the overall shareholding structure before he made his move also. Hence he believe he has a fighting chance

robobo:
TOE consolidates

Is the party / rally (of bid war) over

the party seems to be over. However, i think the days of sub N2 for transcorp seems to be over also (see FBNH price from Otedola shaking till date for direction)

Selah

robobo:
what is driving ote$?

merger of ughelli; Afam (Transcorp power) and Geregu power in sight?

bidding war likely to follow? (30-40% probability, while the shareholding structure looks similar to FBNH ( large fragmentation) it is not exactly the same (sizeable large chunk circa 10-20% still with a single person (TOE), which is not same scenario with FBNH).

why did TOE not pick the chunk up to protect his interest (no plausible answer)

or is Ote$ exploring the Cocacola Nigeria strategy? i.e. maintain a hold on a competitor in other to influence decision making in the competitor to your advantage (Cocacola Nigeria vs Limca saga / Elizade vs Briscoe motor saga)


Interesting days ahead

The Transcorp saga is eventually looking like the bolded (except otedola responds with a more audacious move, which is highly unlikely)

Selah

YoungBuffet:
Don't mind him, hope someone will take over UBA from him one day.

My take is that having seen what happened in FBNH and Transcorp (of which he is directly impacted), he would adjust on UBA for the following reasons

1. Because that is his crown jewel (and his financing arm i.e lifeblood)
2. Otedola shaking him might be a childplay if bigger moneybag (local / foreign) smells blood that there is probability of wrestling some of his coy from him.
3. In most, if not all his companies, he is a single largest shareholder and not the majority shareholder. There is a large difference between the two.

customstreet:
ACTIVISM INVESTING- A case study of Mr. Femi OTEDOLA.

Here are key takes away about this style of investors:

1. Activist investors buy minority stakes in public companies to change how they are run.

2. If they fail to persuade company managers, they may wage a proxy fight for board seats.

3. Some hedge funds or individuals specialize in activist investing while institutional investors may engage in it from time to time.

4. Investor activism may focus on maximizing shareholder value or on the company's social responsibilities.

5. The SEC has proposed tougher disclosure rules for activist investors that critics contend may make activism unprofitable

Here are list of companies he had used this style for:

1. First Bank Plc
2. Transcorp Plc

Which company is next?

Rather i would say what are the factors that attract activist investor (though i dont think that is what is happening in both you just mentioned)

onegentleguy:
Yet another Off Market Trade...

A total of over 5B (5,001,009,920 units to be precise) of TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION PLC were done as off market trade today April 26, 2023 @ N2.45 in three deals.

The deal was a negotiated one with UNITED CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED as both BUYER and SELLER.

TOE consolidates

Is the party / rally (of bid war) over

Lion123:
TOE doesn't really send anybody tbh. All that Foundation/Africapitalism ish is strictly to boost his ego. I like the guy sha.

i like the guy also for his grit and how far he has come despite his background but he should pity shareholders and others who supported him one way or the other and let the largesse trickle down more.

BabsO2:
Because UBA deposit liabilities, has been growing as fast or faster that SHF, perhaps UBA is trying to improve its CAR organically. FBNH has similar challenge / strategy to boost CAR sufficiently above the minimum required by CBN. As a result of this it's not advisable to dispense too much dividend as doing so, reduces the rate at which SHF grows. Access raised a special instrument to boost its
Tier 1 capital a couple of years ago. This has boosted its CAR hence can dispense more dividends. Will need to look through the annual report presentations to pick out the CAR. Or last year Stanbic-IBTC analysis display of CAR if I can get it.

The last full year result already put CAR above 25 which is comfortably above minimum regulatory of 15 , so it is not an excuse. UBA should increase the dividend payout. Na wetin shareholder eat (dividend) for them belle matter most to them

robobo:
The gap between UBA and Access would definitely widen for the rest of the year, and if no response from UBA by next dividend cycle then its new playmate / twin would be Fidelity while Access wld gravitate towards the other twin (GT/Zenith) and then possibly try displace one of them to form a new pair/ twin

.

No mind TOE. He dey do oversabi. How can he be paying 21% of EPS (1.1 paid out of 4.84) and be expecting proper valuation of UBA shares and without proper valuation be opening himsef up for a possible hostile takeover ( as currently going on in his Transcorp). Just because he don chop belleful before d result is declared, he is not mindful whether other people sef chop. No be wickedness be dat.

Mfunkynation:
This is fantastic from Access.
Never used to look into their wardrobe before.
This move by Access is a BIG BIG BLOW to UBA.
Fidelity will shock us with Dividend!

The gap between UBA and Access would definitely widen for the rest of the year, and if no response from UBA by next dividend cycle then its new playmate / twin would be Fidelity while Access wld gravitate towards the other twin (GT/Zenith) and then possibly try displace one of them to form a new pair/ twin

emmanuelewumi:
For Lagos State, dem no send you oooooo.


After submitting all the necessary documents in January 2023, they still asked me to pay an additional 500k based on their Best of Judgement from the tax office

But is it Legal to still ask of such? if not is their any reason why you did not explore legal option against LASG?

wld appreciate if you can share.

YoungBuffet:
no u can get the dividend payment notification from the registrar to use in filling your tax return if need be

Frangel:
No. For both individuals and corporates.

An efficient way to avoid tax. Some of our billionaires go for dividends. Total tax paid by them is not proportional to what they earn, given corporate tax at 30% and personal income tax upto 24% on chargeable income.

Lion123:
No.

Thank you i appreciate your responses

Lion123:
10%

After this 10% WHT, is the balance still subject to PIT (Personal Income Tax) if the dividend is paid to an individual?

Payunsin:
Otedola crazy oo. He can decide to dump all his transcorp holdings, make arond 60% gain an move on.
Boy yen ya were oo

Hw are you sure it was sold to him at prevailing market price for the execution day.

My small knowledge is that such chunk are only crossed. the price at which they are crossed in most cases are not always the deal price. i might be wrong though

robobo:
what is driving ote$?

merger of ughelli; Afam (Transcorp power) and Geregu power in sight?

bidding war likely to follow? (30-40% probability, while the shareholding structure looks similar to FBNH ( large fragmentation) it is not exactly the same (sizeable large chunk circa 10-20% still with a single person (TOE), which is not same scenario with FBNH).

why did TOE not pick the chunk up to protect his interest (no plausible answer)

or is Ote$ exploring the Cocacola Nigeria strategy? i.e. maintain a hold on a competitor in other to influence decision making in the competitor to your advantage (Cocacola Nigeria vs Limca saga / Elizade vs Briscoe motor saga)


Interesting days ahead

...