₦airaland Forum

Lion123:
BTW, very valid point from yMcy56. Also hearing news that TOE and FO might be working on a deal for TOE to acquire FO's shares at a big premium in a padi padi offmarket deal, in which case retail shareholders will be screwed as the price will tank afterwards to enable TOE continue his accumulation. He was caught unawares by FO's moves and doesn't want to ever get blindsided again. My point is, be greedy but not too greedy. Exit when you've had a decent return.

. If this is true then TOE is overrated afterall. How come he was not aware (hence being caught unawares) that AMCON was hawking 5.56% since of Transcorp since Nov/Dec 2022 and he claim to be a major corporate player in Nigeria when he should have been the first person approached by AMCON for the sale.

essentialone:
now it is time to mop up Transcorp Plc?

what is driving ote$?

merger of ughelli; Afam (Transcorp power) and Geregu power in sight?

bidding war likely to follow? (30-40% probability, while the shareholding structure looks similar to FBNH ( large fragmentation) it is not exactly the same (sizeable large chunk circa 10-20% still with a single person (TOE), which is not same scenario with FBNH).

why did TOE not pick the chunk up to protect his interest (no plausible answer)

or is Ote$ exploring the Cocacola Nigeria strategy? i.e. maintain a hold on a competitor in other to influence decision making in the competitor to your advantage (Cocacola Nigeria vs Limca saga / Elizade vs Briscoe motor saga)


Interesting days ahead

RabbiDoracle:
Yes, UBA had lower debt loss than Zenith on GoG debt. 17.9B vs 58.6B. But Zenith bank took 123B impairments as seen in their report because that impairments contain loan losses to customers.

However UBA only took a total impairments of N41B (notes 12a and 12b) compared to gross loan loss of 82.8B (key audit matters) and GoG debt of N17.9B [these losses are N100B in total] . What happens to the remainder in the loan loss to customers?

Will UBA stagger these in the quarterly reports in 2023 financial year?

Ok boss i get your point now and your concerns are clearer, i would take a look and get back if need be.

Appreciate

RabbiDoracle:
Bro, read the key audit matters. There you will see the level of impairment exposures flagged by auditors.

Zenith had it and compare the impairments of Zenith in the P/L accounts with what was stated in the key audit matters.

ETI had it and then you compare the impairments of ETI in the P/L accounts with what was stated in the key audit matters.

Now UBA has it. So compare the info on the key audit matters with what was stated in the P/L accounts. Marked difference!

These differences should be raised in these banks' conference calls.

Oga Oracle

i have checked the Key Audit matters and i cant deduce anything untowards or should be of concern in it. it only mentioned the total loan size of UBA and the impairment figure which is available in the AFS and also the fact that the auditors tested the models and parameters used to arrive at the impairment figure, which is normal for statutory audits. yes i understand your concern that UBA impairment is quite low compared to peers (Zenith / ETI) but the concern here is the exposure to Ghana sovereign bond and not credit in itself. So if UBA is not as exposed to GoG as its peers it is normal that it would also be less impacted by the haircut arising from GoG bonds. or what do you think? would appreciate your further discussion on the issue

[quote author=RabbiDoracle post=121728393]Based on BabsO2 post,

Who know if this is why NSE banks reports are being delayed? Wanting to incorporate impairments for investment losses into their annual reports.

Especially Access that has been buying enu na Ana.

Last reported delay warning was from ETI yesterday.
[/quote

There would surely be impairment from the Ghana Restructuring on Nigerian Banks, however i believe it would be manageable. i even suspect that the N6b impairment done by UCAP might be related to Ghana Bond because they (UCAP) have a shop in accra

mendes911:
What if INEC comes with their usual "inconclusive results"?

i beg make them no come with that one oooooooo.

Anybody wey wan win make the person win

my own just be say make them no make the winning tortuous so tey the thing go come affect market

Agbalowomeri:
Warming up for post election bull
ASI should climb up 10% in coming days

i beg 10% no go do anything, make the thing do at least 20-30%

currentprice:
my TA bedsheet says 63 so 65 is possible

ok chief thanks

its necessary to keep sight of the Macro (ASI)

while watching the Micro (individual stocks) like a mother hen (with intensity)

Agbalowomeri:
Fasten your seat belt

where are we going?

54 or 65?

Coolcash1:
Load up Oando and thank me later!

Chief have they finally finalise the wuruwuru buy out. Shld we be expecting 100% or more final price from todays price. loll

Willie2015:
I also have paid services for global trading...

Hello Chief,

Can u please oblige the name for above?

Mpeace:
So today, the Chief justice if Nigeria resigns, after all the damage had been done.
I think Oando shareholders can appeal that judgment as interested parties. Who knows, they might just stand a chance.

.

This is exactly what i was saying vis a vis docility. The Lawyers/Shareholders should not just be despondent about the issues.

Mpeace:
Appeals from IST goes to the the Federal High court. The IST is a tribunal that acts like an inhouse dispute settlement mechanism. Unlike the courts, the I ST is not recognised in the constitution but only a creation of the statute of the national assembly. Its not a court of record. But I am not laughing in a hilarious mood. The laugh is due to the hopelessness of the situation. Lets hope a powerful shareholder fights back.

Thank you MPEACE.

I can now see the reason why he is trying to rechannel grievance on the issue to SEC/IST, it is because he knows nothing would come from that end.

which confirm my suspicion that he is vested on the issue.

whoever that have grievance on the issue should approach a court. it was the same Federal High Court that Oando itself approached on its protracted issue with SEC and not IST

Vaughanlanrewaj:
My advice for you sir, don't take what you typed up there so serious enough to go ahead and break the law.
When you go break the law and bank on people , you will be shocked that when the poo hits the fan, people will abandon you to your fate. MDs of Bank PhB ,Oceanic bank, Intercontinental, Finbank etc thought they were untouchable but today are in disgrace yet it is same institution and patriots who sent them to jail.

Instead of sounding so pessimistic, just add to other creative suggestions by Seunn11

I urge Oando minority shareholders to report Oando, Venus comstruction company, Ocean and Oil , the judge to SEC and petition the Investment and Secuties Tribunal(IST).
.
Quit the lamentations and pessimism. It is not funny either. Nation building is serious business.

Here is the SEC Investor relations number 094621168. Call them , send emails, mobilize , call out that Judge who issued that kind of judgement, report the Judge to NJC, take them all to court of public opinion!Expose those 14 minority shareholders and owners of Nexus Construction.
Some of us do not have any other country so can not talk down on our fatherland.

If you are conversant with history of legal judgements in capital markets even in Western nations, this kind of strange legal judgement on high stake issues like this should not give you reason to talk down on Nigeria. This is not unexpected but I have absolute faith in SEC and NGx that they will once again beat Oando management to it.
Nigerians are not and never stupid. We just do not want Oando, our own indigenous brand dead so we will engage constructively.
To destroy is easy but to build is hardwork. Oando is bigger than Wale and Boyo.

May God bless Nigeria for ever .

Oga what is the breaking the law part that you are harping on?

Did you read my post at all? if you did cant you see that my proposal was to approach a law court for an injunction, even after MPEACE stated that with the level of impunity in the country the injunction might still not be obeyed by the parties ? or does that look like someone who is breaking the law?

or are you a paid agent of Oando such that my open proposal is giving a cause for concern

why try redirect to SEC or IST when some members of the forum (e.g Wille and MPEACE) had already said nothing much can come from that end also

Mpeace:
My brother. Forget it. The country is gone and any lawyer that knows how things work will not even bother suing certain companies. Its no use. Many big companies in nigeria don't obey court orders any more. It started with the politicians and now many companies have joined. I am aware of some companies on NSE that flagrantly disobey court orders even with impunity. Zenith bank is chief, gtb, unity bank. If you are in the system you will understand better. Oando is also one of them, Dang group etc. You sue them its just a waste of money. They comply if they wish to.
Except a powerful figure with access to the cabal is interested, that oando delisting judgment stands.
Since they installed that new Chief justice things have not been the same.
My advice: just play along and pray they adequately compensate the said minorities. As for the 14 so called minorities that instituted the suit, be sure that they have already been adequately compensated.

while i agree with some of your assertion about impunity, if i am a lawyer and a shareholder of Oando, i would still get a court injunction against the DAYLIGHT ROBERRY about to happen and ensure SEC is joined in the injunction, not necessarily because i believe Oando and SEC would still not act with impunity but at least for it to be on record that a court of competent jurisdiction ruled against the DAYLIGHT ROBERRY but the parties still went ahead to do as they wish (there would be a time that a Pharaoh that does not know Joseph would come into place and at such point such injunction/ court pronouncement could come in handy)

Seunn11:
OODP of OANDO trying to forcefully take over other shareholders shares would be tantamount to Otedola asking court to force the other shareholders in FBNH to sell their shares to him.

If the court was presided by rational beings, they would have asked the 14 shareholders to go ahead to sell their own shares. Is that not what the stock exchange is meant for? Why joining others to your own desire to sell? Do we not have freedom to buy and sell?
If OODP want to buy more of OANDO shares, let them buy on the stock exchange!!!

This would definitely be setting a bad precedent in the country.

So Unilever International being the majority holder of Unilever Nigeria can just get some ragtag shareholders together to get a court judgement to buy other minority shareholders out because the ragtag investors believe that best suited THERE own interest.

if not for the fact that SEC/NSE are already compromised they should just throw the issue out and not entertain it at all.

Like you rightly said the right thing for any shareholder that is not happy with the current state of things is to sell his shares on the floor of stock exchange and not approach a court to be bought out then also request the court to also mandate that all other minority shareholders that have nothing to do with him (and his desire) should also be bought out

Tpharell:
The shareholders get to vote to accept the offer, so I believe it can be turned down if reasonably low

Which shareholders? or which meeting? meeting that would be deliberately be made onerous (just like the petition also. Isnt the right thing to do when they were served with the court paper for the petition to inform SEC immediately so that other minority shareholders that are interested in the case can be asked to be joined to the petition/case?)

i beggiiiii

Harvestock01:
The court became a father Christmas in this instance by granting the relief that was not sought.

That is the more reason why shareholders (that are also lawyers) should appeal the decision / or get another court to stop the DAYLIGHT ROBERRY.

Seunn11:
Apparently, 14 minority shareholders petitioned the court asking that OANDO to buy the entire 43% shares of OANDO belonging to thousands of minority shareholders. How stupid could things really get?? And the so called court agreed. If at all the remaining thousands of shareholders agree to this forceful takeover, will they pay the highest share price that OANDO ever recorded??

They know Nigerians are docile set of people. Among the other Shareholders that are being shortchanged would be several lawyers. what stop one or two of them from also approaching a court to get an injunction against the DAYLIGHT ROBERRY they (OODP) intend to perpetrate. and in conjunction with the injunction write several petitions to all necessary state organs (NSE/SEC/NASS e.t.c). Even much more petitioning JSE (so the issue can become international cause most of the institution in country are compromised) because Oando is also listed on JSE.

yMcy56:

Everything sure look planned out. Since they mentioned "......and other information" or so, I knew they are planning something, but I'd thought they wanted to surprise with dividend, not knowing it's delisting.

Anyway, I think your gamble shouldn't exceed 5.50.........in case the exit price is N6....... especially with the loss recorded in released results so far.

the release of the negative result (all at once) is part of the scare tactics

And you can also be rest assured that the 14 minorities wld have received their own cut

Mpeace:
By then, Oil had not gone to 100+ Seplat was even selling below 500 then.
If mangal knew oil would get this high, he for no gree.

i agree with you, however considering the antecedent of OODP (and its promoters) i doubt if anything substantially different from the Mangal price would be offered EXCEPT (which is a big except) some minority shareholders is ABLE to pour sand sand for their garri (and be a pain in the neck for them ( OODP (and its promoters))

OBAGADAFFI:
What is the buyout price?

no price yet. i guess that wld be determined at the EGM but as a guide, u can take the fact that Mangal was OFFICIALLY paid 6 naira per share for his stake by same OODP in resolving their logjam with him (i.e. Mangal)

yMcy56:
Bearishness on the floor due to the insensitivity of the Apex bank........
ZEE, GTCO, WAPCO, VITAFOAM, UCAP, NAHCO, and few other ones leading the race.....
Opportunity presenting itself......
* Market may stabilize sooner than expected........bargainers showing up and on queue at the bottom of the bid tables......

Btw, where are the bear crew self?

the thing neva reach our zone, the likes of GT / WAPCO /ZENITH wld not be bad at a range of 19-21, they sure can make it happen

yMcy56:
OANDO scheduled Board meeting to consider 2019 FYE report on 29th April......
I think the clause "along with other corporate actions" may be one of the reasons for the interest, maybe insiders are buying, have some info, or are positioning for possible positive outcome.......
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35711_OANDO_PLC%20_NOTICES_OF_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_%20_NOTICE_BOAR.pdf

Anybody that is buying because of "along with other corporate actions" is on a long thing. Which action them wan corporate when they have triple digit billion bank loans and also triple digit negative retained earnings.

However, it could be good for jijoist


n.b this no be bad mouth oooo because i have substantial units already written off, just being a brother/sister keeper

GANDALF1:
Have you noticed that the bid appears everyday?

Have you noticed it is never filled?

Have you noticed it is always adjusting itself to between 0.5 and N1 below the trading price automatically?

If the bid was serious, it would have been filled over three weeks now.

Thats a manipulative bid

Ok thanks i now understand your point

However given all the above i would rather take it to be a floor that the MM is not willing to let it go for now (instead of outrightly looking at it as manipulative) but if any supplier (particularly institutional investor) feel the MM is wrong they can always dismantle the wall considering that they (institutional investor) typically have more than the wall holding. My take though might be naive

Thank all the same, appreciate

GANDALF1:
The true Bid-Ask Volume spread for UBA is N3m or less.

Dont be deceived by the picture you see on the floor.

This stock wins the award for the most manipulated stock on NGX (both in trade and in financial reporting)

Chief i want to learn

is it because of the 27m at 7.90 you said it is being manipulated?

if so, other stocks (particularly banking) also most of d time have some price point with outsized offer, so it is not limited to UBA alone

example i think abt 7m unit was available at some point on Zenith yesterday around 24-24.05 but at a point supply was release at that price point and it eventually went down to 23.80

someone could also release supply at 7.90 if they believe the price is fair enough

or what are your thinking, i would appreciate if you share

Slimdove:
Ucap is sighted 13.65 against 13.85 it ended yesterday when the result is not yet out.it seem investors are selling off.

i beg make dem sell after abt 40% rise in PAT (abt 700m difference in just one quarter) make dem sell ooooooo

seyisanya:
''GTCO'' reading this comment will be yelling ''WE NO GO GREE''...

Dem really do WE NO GO GREE

seems GT had finally lost its market signaling role / function within the Banking Sector space. The next question is if it is temporary or parmanent

Mpeace:
UCAP is really doing well since monday. I am impressed with them.

i think 1st Quarter result is on the way

RabbiDoracle:
Market is bullish. All Emerging market. The seed has been sown long ago.

F - 50
U - 40
G - 90
A - 60
Z - 75

2Fs - 15

And many more.

This is a possibility based on TA.

Impossible is nothing.

Do your due diligence.

And i say a resounding AMEN, so that retirement can come sooner than envisaged.

RabbiDoracle:
Two things happened this February 2022 which could decide the fate of the USD.

First, Biden will use confiscated Afghanistan reserve for aid relief to the people of Afghanistan and also using the fund to pay 9/11 victims.

Secondly, sanctions on Russian central bank preventing them from using dollar for transactions. And blocking some of their reserves.

What could go wrong?

Will other sovereigns think that their funds can be seized and they liquidate as fast as possible once there is any disagreement with US? Once this thought enters their heads, dollar will have a catastrophic fall because the holders of the US debt will have no other option than to sell.

Reviewing my target for Brent from $220 to $300. Don't expect a straight line rise.

Gold needs to rise till it gets to $4,500.

NSE ASI 100K target still remains.

"In the war between falsehood and truth, falsehood always wins first battle, but truth always wins the last"... Mujibur Ruhman

Oga Rabbi

I have liked your post but let me play devils advocate. What Asset is big enough to accommodate such large scale liquidation of US debt considering that the sale actually will be an exchange of Assets.

The point above had always been the issue with US Debt held by other sovereign / nationals