Rvp2018's Posts
Nairaland Forum › Rvp2018's Profile › Rvp2018's Posts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 (of 340 pages)
Evidence of over-cooked GDP Data from the last comprehensive household survey (NHLSS) in 2009/2010 indicated that the official poverty rate3 remained stubbornly high at 46% of the population (adult equivalent approach)4 , or 62% in strictly per capita terms. This indicates only a slight decline from 48% and 64%, respectively, that were recorded from the NHLSS in 2003/2004. These poverty numbers raise two major economic questions. Firstly, why has the rapid economic growth in Nigeria not generated greater poverty reduction? Second, how could an economy of the size and wealth of Nigeria have such high poverty rates? The country’s performance is at odds with the general international trend of poverty reduction, in particular in other countries experiencing rapid economic growth like Nigeria[b][/b] |
Actually it worse than I thought - IMF told Yemi Kale to give them some few months to validate his numbers - but Nigeria gov - went ahead to announce those crazy figures - that claims Nigeria Agricluture is comparable to Brazil - and not far from US, CHina . In short Nigeria figures are over-cooked - and it's going to be hard to justify those figures going forward. Nigeria indeed has 520B economy (1 trilion in PPP) only in Yemi Kale. Nigeria didn't hold census for lack of funds mostly. Daejoyoung: |
Kale was apprehensive before announcing the new GDP numbers in 2014. He had already had to delay the publication of the figures, which were anticipated since 2010. "I was embarrassed six times," he explains. But when he saw the size of the change he wanted to sit down and double-check all the numbers himself. "We were afraid that the numbers would be politicised," says Kale. He feared suggestions they had been cooked up to give the sitting politicians an artificial boost. Contrary to what some have claimed, the NBS does not need a formal endorsement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to issue new numbers. Kale anticipated that an informal approval from such institutions was necessary nevertheless. "I understood the geopolitical significance. We invited the African Development Bank, the World Bank, even economics professors in Nigeria, so that they could all see the numbers. The IMF wanted us to wait until the summer to announce so that their technical consultant could have a final look, but [finance minister] Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala asked whether we were ready. And we said: 'Yes, we are ready,' and so we released the new numbers. It was important to get them out early before it got politicised because of the [oncoming] electi http://www.theafricareport.com/West-Africa/nigerias-political-and-statistical-revolutions.html Read the original article on Theafricareport.com : Nigeria's political and statistical revolutions | West Africa Follow us: @theafricareport on Twitter | theafricareport on Facebook |
So basically you've no evidence of IMF auditing GDPs of any country. Yes IMF do offer technical assistance to Yemi Kales of this world but ultimately if Gov want to cook their stats - and they are many that do this - there is nothing IMF can do about it. They'll just post the figures - and play around with PP (international price comparison). Just for example tell us how you can count outputs of economic activities - when you cannot count people in census . I mean what sort of baseline data do you use to measure or track your GDP when basic stuff like stats like census are cooked or never held (for lack of funds).A giant 400B has been unable to hold census due to lack of funds. Kenya a small country - will be spending 200M dollars to count it people next year - like it's done ever 10yrs since 1940s! without fail.Daejoyoung: |
Show us evidence of IMF audit GDP figures of any country. Daejoyoung: |
There is nothing unique ab out Nigeria - it has huge informal economy that produce very little(as you would expect) like many other Africa economies - Nigeria is just like Tanzania or DRC minus the Oil - the only difference is pop. South Africa is indeed an advanced economy with solid 320B economy. I have read all your rambling - and they don't make sense. Breakdown Nigeria economy - sector by sector - and demonstrate to us where this 400B (at it apex 520B) is? Start with giant - Agricluture - worth 20% of your economy - which is officially - 80B dollars - about the size of Brazil Agricluture GDP - you can pull the national accounts from Yemi Kale website and demonstrate to us - how this biggest food importer (no 1 in wheat & rice imports) - with just few million acres of land cultivated exclusively on hoes - has the same GDP as Brazil's well reputed agriculture. Nigeria GDP is not cooked. It's over-cooked. Yandl: |
Beside history is no recourse or excuse - you got a problem - deal with it. It doesn't matter how it came about - that is a historical fact - but as of now - as of today - you've got a debilitating caste system that prevent millions of indians from social mobility. TayserMahiri: |
You're implying there are creditors or lenders out there hawking huge loans that you're rejecting? or rather the more accurate description being you're so afraid of debt - you can't even take 1% of your supposed GDP in debt. 1% being 4-5B dollars. PRAY TELL US HOW YOU WILL DEVELOP WITHOUT DEBT. Nigeria GDP is indeed oil - and we can measure oil - 2M barrels per day * price of oil *365 days - outside that - we can use TZ or DRC figures - and weight it by population. Basically oil GDP is around 50-60B + TZ (50B)* 3 - roughly your GDP is about 200B! or we can use DRC congo (about 35 * 2.3=90+50=150B) - if you check nearly any index - you cluster around DRC or Tanzania - save for Oil production. Daejoyoung: |
It nothing to do with pride. It everything to do with ability to repay. Nigeria had big debt crisis in 80s and 90s - when Oil prices crushed and certainly they were unable to repay.Most of that debt had to be repay. That is what inform their fear of loans. Right now you basically have no taxes or revenues to repay any serious loans - you can only bet on the oil prices going up - or you going burst. Daejoyoung: |
I have seen the loans offers you get - very similar to kenya - and you always struggle to pay. It's not rocket science. You have as much reveunue as kenya - and therefore you can only borrow as much. You cannot be approved for 200-250B - about 50% of you GDP - as is the rule of the thumb- because you've no chance in hell of repaying it. So with 70B debt - you're already in a big hole - because you real GDP is around 150-200B. Daejoyoung: |
That rich coming from you. Whatever Yemi Kale throws to Imf/WB - that is what they'll take - can only massage the price numbers or advice on weighting - but as a rule - whatever Nigeria tell the world - is their GDP - it will be taken at it highest. But there are things you can't fake. So obviously if you ran to WB or IMF - the same IMF that accept you economy is 500B - cannot even lend you 10B - they lend you as much as Kenya .South Africa whose GDP is credible has debt of nearly 180B - Kenya has debt of around 50b - with GDP of 85-88B. Nigeria has 70B debt - and struggle to pay. Look at the gov revenues...520B economy - can only generate 20B '. A real GDP like South Africa generates revenues more than 100B. Kenya has revenues 20B.In short you're free to fake it; call yourself the biggest economy; but besides the momentarily bragging right brought down by realization that Nigeria replaced India as poverty capital; it won't help you. What is important for Nigeria is to find it's real bottom. To know the kind of hole they are in. If they deluded themselves they are big economy - they will not hold themselves or their politician to account. Daejoyoung: |
My 2 cents on India.India has always been a great nation hampered by amongst other issues - it's caste systems. It top elite has always been up there with other global elites - but the age-old caste systems designed to permanently keep huge percentage of it's people as untouchable is one of the changes they really need to make - so all Indians can progressively move forward. They are trying to make changes - including affirmative action - but toppling the hindu quasi-gov system for a real democracy will unleash India's potential. obaaderemi: |
Obi1, Obaboon, Daeyung, Let me restate again for you benefit so few salient points. 1) IMF/WB/CIA name them - do not measure GDP of a country - any country - they take whatever is thrown at them by National Stats bodies. 2) When Nigeria told everyone before 2014 re-basing their economy was 270B - IMF or WB didn't go round to calculate their own "more" accurate GDP. 3) Nigeria re-based their GDP by 90% to 520B - 90% increase - while most analyst expected something close to 50%. IMF or WB cannot object or put their figures. Obviously you guys are so embarrased by that 520B (nearly twice South Africa GDP - you are okay with 300B (or pre-rebasing GDP). 4) There are many ways to cross-reference a GDP. There are variables that have been identified that by economic researches that strongly correlated with GDP. 5) Following on 4 - Cement consumption per annum Strongly CORRELATE with GDP IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Regression analysis have been done and save for 1 or 2 outliers - there is a strong correlation btw cement consumption & GDP. If we do not trust Nigeria number - all we need to look at cement consumption of countries at similar level of development with Nigeria - and use it to determine it's real GDP. 6) Based on my own calculation - Nigeria GDP is around 150-200B - I'd take 180B! |
Nigeria has forex issues..that you know.It has black market for forex because you central bank and treasury doesnt have good handle on macro ecomics.Stop boasting about forex reserves when you cant float naira freely like we do kshs.You forex will go up and dow depending on oil market.Not Buhari.Not Jonathan Obi1kenobi: |
While kenya pursued africa socialism best exemplified by national motto harambee which mean lets pull together in cooperation ...Tz decided to go communism..all are equal in brotherhood and now they export beggars. KENYA COOPERATIVE MOVEMENT is africa best and is truly the first attempt to define africa socialism. |
Why would you buy forex on the street..blackmarket..clear sign you need to fix your forex issues.Youre like 1990.Let naira float freely like kshs.You cant and like tz to take out dollars you need an essay.You guys are like 30yrs from where we are .why would someone hawk dollars...unless there was shortage and fixed exchange rate.That is kenya in 80s.Shameful. |
HOW ?PLEASE KENYA AGRI IS ON THE BACK OF OUR SMALL HOLDER FARMING.KENYA IS UNIQUE.How is that possible..our cooperative model is africa best by a wide margin and 7th best worlwide.We dont need communisn to cooperate and pull together.our national motto harambee is call to work together.Show me more cooperative and united people without being forced and you have kenyans.Study our succesfully cooperatives and saccos..the backbone of our hardworking and progressive people.Kenya invest in chamas.groups.table banking..microfinance.Watch as Cooperative Bank of Kenya rise to the top Kazikazi: |
YOURE ONE FEW REASONABLE AND INTELLIGENT NAIJAS HERE SO tell me how 47b forex is helping when to buy forex in nigeria is akin to kenya 40yrs ago..you basically need to bring your grandmother along coz forex shortage.In kenya you can buy any forex any day without any explanation.You can go and burn them if it please you.Forex reserve 8s non issues coz there is confidence they will flow in and out.Secondly nigeria can only borrow or be lent as much as its able to repay..which is a bet on oil prices..nigeria cant take loan neither can the lenders lend..unless they play russian roullette with oil.cooked gdp Obi1kenobi: |
Forex are owned by central bankers..and they are used for defending your currency and for international trade settlements.They are current account.They can be wiped out overnight.Dont confuse it with sovereign savings held by likes of Saudis,Nowergians and Chinese.Those are savings accounts.That is wealth..or money in the bank that you can leverage.Talk of your puny debt..i checked..you gov owes 70b..we owe 50b..see nobody can lend to Nigeria anything serious.See what can of debt 300b economy like South Africa or Egypt can leverage.Youre are afraid of debt because if oil drops or crash..you economy will similarly crash Obi1kenobi: |
300b is south africa and egypt level.Algeria with abt your oil and gas is around 200b.I put nigeria gdp around there..depending on oil prices...a low of 150b..is more probable.You just need to look at nigeria national accounts to see how unreleastic the gdp.Gdp that generates gov revenues equal to kenya..gdp without as much debt leverage..youre crying debt of 2 or 3b that babu had given you..WB are still offering your peanutd coz your gdp is peanuts.A country like south africa can easily borrow 150 b dollars.Nigeria has no debt issues..no sane person can lend it anything serious..am talking 50b dollar in one transaction..poor kenya has accumulated 50b dollars debt..because we can repay..we can leverage our credible gdp.Nigeria with officially 400b gdp are issuing 1.5b eurobond..what kind of nonsense is that..its not even 1% of your gdp.At minimum ypu should be able to leverage to as much as 200b dollars and still remain healty at 50% gdp to debt ratio...but you gdp is crap..your tax revenue non existent..private sector puny..and someone has to basically bet on your oil revenues. |
Please try understand what forex reserve is and what they are meant for.Those are mainly for trade aka import cover and defending the naira.You can only borrow more than kenya if have more revenue than us..those revenue you use to repay debt.Nigeria can only borrow when oil prices are predictably high.Kenya can borrow any day.Nigeria has struggle with 1.5b eurobonds..we are 4b eurobond..china 10b..adb..wb..imf..our revenues equal to n8geria are reliable Obi1kenobi: |
That is precisely what IMF does - if they doubt the data - all they can do is put ****. You can fake your GDP but try go to IMF or WB for loan - Kenya get more loans from WB/IMF/Eurobond/China than Nigeria - because our GDP is solid. Look at your argicluture - almost exclusively tradinationl low dollar crops - sorghum, millet, yams, cassava, palm oil - and you want to tell all those crappy food - no middle class in kenya can be found eating - makes you 6th wonder of agricluture - that imports powder milk & tomato paste ![]() Common sense. If Nigeria data was credible - why are you now HQ of POVERTY? Daejoyoung: |
We've been through your dodgy data several times. Only 20% of Kenya is arable. 40% of Nigeria is arable. Nigeria is twice as big as kenya. So basically you've 4 times more land - and should have 4 times more output - but you don't. We beat you in more than 20 crops -- off my head 1) Irish Potato - 5th in Africa. 2) Milk - 1st in Africa 3) Wheat - we beat Nigeria(zero) 4) Barley - we beat Nigeria(zero) 5) Avacados - 1st in Africa & top 5 world wide (*) 6) Tea - 1st in world in export and 3rd in production 7) Macademia nuts - 3rd world wide. French Beans - 1st in Africa9) Flowers - 1st in Africa & 3rd worldwide in exports 10) Coffee - we beat nigeria. 11) Pyrethrum - 1st in World 12) Sugar production - we beat Nigeria 13) Sisal - 3rd worldwide 14) Fresh produce-fresh produce, such as cabbages, onions and mangoes - 3rd in world in exports. 15) Soya beans - we beat Nigeria. 16-20) I am pretty sure we beat you in many other livestock products. You can only beat kenya is low-class food like yams, cassava,sorghum, millet and I don't what - some of stuff no kenyan will be found eating ![]() Danielnino00: |
Why the poverty? You see Nigeria data is all faked. Tell me for example if you do not export anything of those - how do you count what is planted and internally consumed. FAO & IMF - will just take whatever Yemi Kale's CBN throws at them. You minister of agricluture when asked about rice production - quoted Indexmulli or CIA - yet he is suppose to be the source of data. Of course we can talk about Kenya SOLID CREDIBLE FIGURES any day any time. But Nigeria data is as fake as anything made in Nigeria. Kenya obviously is mostly semi-arid but we still produce enough food - for local consumption and export - and we have very small deficit in certain crops.We produces lots of Maize and Irish Potatos - our two most important food crops - we produce lots of milk - lots of meat - name it. Danielnino00: |
Of Europe.You pathetic education shines Kazikazi: |
Yeah you produce lots of beans mainly from kagera region but what dollar value of your beans |
BIG LIE.You are no where in wine production in Africa or world.Having one wine farm or flower farm is not enough.Youre as dense as a typical tanzanian Kazikazi: |
There is nothing you're miles ahead of kenya except Minning. Having 2 or 3 farms here and there is not what we are talking about. We are talking industry that controls 40% of European market. Sisal, Seaweed and Gloves...like really...who cares about those stuff. Kazikazi: |
They can't. Only those who have been fortunate to see real agricluture like SufferNSmilling understand what we are talking about. Nakuru airport is tough with flamingo birds. The idea was shelved. I think if put around Mai Mahiu-Narok-Naivasha - with Dry Port & Geothermal & Upcoming Industrial zone - it would make more sense that way. kikuyu1: |
As lazy and unimaginative Tanzania grow maize and beans (just like Nigeria's cassava,yams & millet - which we buy for so cheap - Kenya is known for producing the best quality French Beans out there - that we export to Europe & earns us lot more than useless TZ beans.https://c8.alamy.com/comp/BWY8KW/kenyan-baby-corn-tenderstem-broccoli-fine-green-beans-garden-peas-BWY8KW.jpg Our avacodos are attracting the same attention - and we just overtook South Africa in Africa - and are hot on the heels of South America countries like Peru https://www.freshplaza.com/2012/1113/avo1.jpg Macademia - we overtook US - and we are now 3rd biggest producer of Macademi world wide https://www.industrysourcing.com/sites/default/files/10-11-bc-out-of-africa-cashew-macadamia.jpg |
Thanks to Kenya's world-class horticulture (worth 3B dollars - with exports nearing 1.5B dollars) - the flower garden of Europe (and soon Americ)- JKIA is one of Africa leading cargo airport - with capacity to handle 1M tonnes of exports - of mainly fresh flowers and vegetables to Europe [img]https://salokidogo.files./2015/01/flower-farms-in-kenya.jpg[/img] https://infotradekenya.go.ke/media/KQ%20Cargo%20plane.jpg https://topfarmer.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/kenyas.jpg https://www.logupdateafrica.com/administrator/assets/uploads/KQ-cargo.jpg https://www.logupdateafrica.com/administrator/assets/uploads/Air-France-KLM-Martinair-Cargo-transports-3000-tonnes.jpg JKIA has many cargo centers to process flowers and vegetable direct to Europe https://www.transglobal.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/TCC_0347-Copy-1024x567.jpg |
Nairobi JKIA receives the final nod to commence direct flights to USA.Huge milestone in our air transport. |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 (of 340 pages)
.
We've got bright people too.
French Beans - 1st in Africa