₦airaland Forum

lhordspy:
Nice analysis.

Lets take away Kwankwaso, i think i see him more like a spoiler or maybe with time he will definitely drop for one of the candidate. Atiku or tinubu.

On Atiku chance, i think it has been greatly reduced by the infighting in PDP. Especially as it involves the southern bigwig politicians. And also we all know south-east and south-south are naturally PDP voters during the presidential elections. But this time with the OBI emergence and influence in that angle. It will take a miracle for Atiku to win the election because he cant do that with only the Northern blocks which is not even sure for him.. Especially the North-west, and some North-east too. We all remember he lost to Pres. Buhari even at his polling unit in the last election.

On Peter Obi , i think he is a force to reckon with too. But i dont see him getting there yet, maybe many years to come but not now. He lacks the political structure and connections. Nigeria politics have gone past or let me say his bigger than the social media buzz and attention he is pulling right now.
Quite sure, south-south and south-east including some part of North-central will turn out for him maybe massively..

But the thing is to win an election you must have 25% in atleast 25 states, which i dont see Peter obi having especially when you are substracting states from North-east and North-west which i will coldly and brutally say Peter obi is still relatively unknown and unheard of.

And also to win election you need majority of the votes, south-east and south-south are traditionally low voters due to the popoulation and non-challant altitude of the voters. A votes from bornu, yobe, Lagos, kano, kastina only can cancel the entire vote from the two region(i stand to be corrected though). So i think even though he manages to scale some state, he will definitely not be having the majority vote on his side due to the block votes from the Northern region. Except something m*d happens where we have the Northern votes pieces, shared and scathered among kwankwaso, tinubu and atiku. With each having just a small fraction of the votes.
This will surely favours peter alot.

But also Peter comes from a region that has been politically marginalised and sidelined for too long, it might affect his chances, because the region are not influential on a national poltical stage. And with the aggresssive behaviour of some of his supporters especially those from the eastern sides due to unexperience(i think) when dealing with political matters, they might disgust and scare the undecided voters away from Peter obi. Not just the undecided voters, but also other voters who they might have just try winning gently and by preaching to them of their ideology.


Lastly, Tinubu. I think Tinubu is the luckiest politician presently, reason why you see him not acting desperate or not appearing for interviews and been in the media much like that. Man as been planning all his life for this moment, over the years he has made friends, allies ,build a political dynasty with several wings and lot of politically successful 'boys' in virtually every nooks and crannies of the country. They are the ones now returning the favour, mobilising for him except ofcourse the likes of osinbajo and others aggrieved one way or the other. But i think they will surely fall inline.

On tinubu chances , i think with states like shettima bornu, Yobe, Elrufai kaduna, Buhari Kastina, and also Lagos with over 7million+ votes in the bags for him already...even taken out the lagos igbos voters, he is sure of getting atleast 4million votes in Lagos from the 7m+(debatable tho).
And also, if we are to include the Buharis factor, if things play out according to plan, you might notice he made buhari the chairman of his campaign council, the buhari block votes is his target with that moves.

Also southwest, even irrespective of the uproar in muslim-muslim ticket, southwest dont discriminate or marginalise that much. It is omoluabi first before anything... Reason why taking out oyetola of osun out of the context, there is no muslim south-west governor presently. The osun muslim voted him out too, they rate competency above any other thing in the south-west. So hopefully for tinubu, he might count on that facts too. But if it doesnt work, then Tinubu is in hot soup, because with the north preently not sure for anyone and can swing anyway, tinubu need south-west vote than anything. So he needs to get there and convince the voters especially christians about his inclusive plan he have for them.

South-south and south-east, tinubu will fight for his life here, well all he needs is just 25% here. He shouldnt expect much not even in the APC controp state. I think those states are for OBI not even Atiku except we see some OKowa's factors and maybe PDP resolves their issue with the southern-governors, then we can start having a situation of a vote-sharing between obi and atiku in that region too.

The only thing in Tinubu way to presidency is the muslim-muslim thing, but only applied to the North-central where we have lot of serious christians who dont joke with religion. The plus for him is the infighting in PDP, and the fact that obi and Atiku will be sharing lot of PDP traditional votes.


I don try. Shalom

First, we do not know the tribal demography of Lagos voters. The 7 million might even be a big disadvantage for Tinubu. Secondly, we are yet to see if the northern governors are enough to pull him through.
Again you showed very little knowledge of the history of our past elections. Without counting Lagos, the South East has more votes than the remaining 5 states of the Southwest. And even when you add Lagos, the Southwest vote is not a million more than the Southsouth vote. please check the past elections.

Kdon2:
Google go shock you when election finish

You are entitled to your opinion.

N3TRAL:
I have lived 15 years cumulatively in 5 South South States. From June to August this year I spent not less than 1 week each in these states. Why? I'll not reveal

I'm saying this the for umpteenth time, Obi will not win Bayelsa State, Cross River State, Akwa Ibom State, Delta State and Rivers State as it stands today.

Who would win those states?

This map from Google trends says it all.
Atiku is very popular in Russia.

Upworkwriter007:
I really think the surest way to defeat an incumbent is for opposition to join forces. Defeating incumbent in a nation like Nigeria is not an easy task. They have every trick in the book, and money...also, poverty is easily weaponised in this country. Anyone that will win this election needs just 40% of the vote. Hope y'all choose right.

My post was based on a free election.

lhordspy:
Hmm

You disagree?

lexylaw40:
Obi should explain to Ndi Anambra the
circumstances surrounding his father's
death which remains his best kept secret. Before then we can reveal that Obi's father was drowned to death by Obi's associates in the drug trade whom he short-changed in a business deal prompting the mafias to kill the old man whom they drowned bounded hands and feet with bricks round his neck.

Inspector general of police.

Let's look at the chances of the four major candidates in the next presidential election. Some argue that we don't have up to four major candidates but I would be analyzing all the candidates that I believe would get over a million votes in the upcoming election.

1. Kwankwaso; let's begin with the formal governor of Kano Rabiu Kwankwaso. He may not be popular in the southern part of Nigeria but he is loved in the core north. Even at that, Kwankwaso's chances are not great. I believe he would need an outright miracle to win this election.
I don't see him cracking 25% in any state in the south. Even in the North, he would only get significant votes from the northwest where he is strongest. But as long as most Nigerians believe in miracles, his excellency still got a chance.

2. Tinubu; Bola Ahmed Tinubu's huge advantage is that he is in the incumbent party. In Nigeria, we don't joke about the power of the incumbent. But that said let's look at his chances.
The southwest is supposed to be his strongest zone. He is Yoruba so it shouldn't surprise anyone if he wins the zone. But the big question is, by how many points?
In both 2015 and 2019, APC failed to crack 60% in the Southwest. Some may argue that it was because Buhari was on the ticket and not Tinubu but everyone knew that Tinubu was next in line after Buhari hence 'Emilokan'. So those who did not vote for Buhari even when they knew that after Buhari, comes Tinubu, why would they vote for him this time? We have not seen any sign that he would beat the 60% threshold but then, he is from the zone, and he has enough time to convince his people. If Tinubu does not get over 75% of the votes in the southwest, it would be very hard for him to win this election.
Tinubu would also need the block votes the APC got from the Northwest in the last two elections. Luckily for him, he has almost all the governors on his side also, Buhari is from the zone too. Then again, Buhari's approval is presently below 20% across the country. Also, there is a move for power to remain in the north. Question is, would the governors be able to take Tinubu across the finish line this time? He would need the kind of margins Buhari had in the Northwest.

3. Atiku; The formal VP has lost the South. The region was huge for him in the last election as he won in 13 out of the 17 states of the south. But with the present rift in the party, it seems he has lost the southern governors.

That leaves him with the north. Many core Northerners are looking to retain power in the north and Atiku is by far the most connected northern politician after Buhari. The PDP is also a heavyweight party. But then, Atiku needs at least 50% of all northern votes to balance his poor outing in the South. Can he do it?

4. Obi; Peter Obi would win in the Southeast and Southsouth zones but that would not be enough to make him president. For him to be president, APC needs to score less than 65% of the southwestern votes and he must score at least 25% from the region. He would be hoping for those who did not vote for APC in 2015 and 2019 to repeat the same.

Obi would also need the Votes in the north to be divided with no party having up to 40% of the votes in the north. Also, he would have to score 25% of the votes in 8 to 9 northern states. The states where he has the highest chance of getting 25% in the north are, Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Niger, Taraba, Gombe, a miracle in Adamawa, and definitely Abuja.

What do you think? Let's hear from you.

Reference:
Well, one thing is clear. Whoever wins next year's elections will have a huge, huge task ahead.
I don't envy him at all.

In 2015 the President was elected by a round-about even majority.
This time whoever wins will theoretically be supported by no more than a third of Nigerians meaning he will not be the first choice of the majority of Nigerians.

That is the only certainty here and this will lead to serious governance challenges such as Nigeria has never seen.
You guys better choose who can weather the political storms ahead.

We have always chosen strong men who weather the political storms and where has it gotten us?

casualobserver:
No big deal, anywhere there are ibos, there will be Obi supporters, that does not mean he will get 25% of 36 states. Do all the rallies you want in metropolitan areas with high ibo concentrations for feel good purposes, without 25% in 24 states he cant be president....simple!!!

When it happens, your eyes go clear.

sarrki:
I don’t fly private jet - says mr Peter obi

This guy is a serial liar

I have flown economy more than 3 times with Peter Obi as a fellow passenger on economy. You don't have a point

AsomughaChuks05:
Most of them were given branded T shirts for the event an indication that they have been induced materially one way or the other. Walking down the road and voting are two different things.

Actually walking down the road is much harder than voting

Darren95:
I had femur fracture on my left leg and it’s been difficult to move around the house and get things done because I can’t put weight on the operated leg until the fracture heals.

There is this lady friend I knew last year. Back then I tried persuading this lady friend to let me have a shot from her honey pot but she refused.
Honestly back then I was only interested in her honey pot nothing more because I’m not ready for a committed relationship at this stage of my life.

Nearly 2 months after I had the surgery, i called this lady friend (we have not been talking for close to a year) and told her I had accident. She immediately book a car and came to my house to see me. I was surprised and appreciated her quick response. I told her how it happened and that my two friends (guys) have been the ones helping. I told her I would be glad if she comes around to care for me while I heal as I can’t get food from the kitchen myself because I can’t step on my both legs due to the surgery. I live alone in my two bedroom apartment.

Omo starting from that day she started caring and didn’t leave until 5 days later. She said she was going to her home town and she needed to see her 2yrs old daughter (she got pregnant while in a relationship with her ex).

The issue on ground now is that, ever since she returned she has not gone to her own house where she rented. She has been in my house doing virtually everything and my both friends have left (they are business men). I was tempted to approach her for sex and she gave me smoothly without complain unlike before. I was like, look at you when I was healthy you didn’t let me have your honey pot, but now you gave it to me without stress! Hmmm we laughed over it.

But the rate at which this lady friend is taking care of me is scaring, she does everything to the point that I can’t remember the last time I opened a bottle water myself. She does it for me, the only thing I do is bath myself!
Few days ago my guy who was with me came with his female friend to pay me a visit and omo this my lady friend was looking at this girl with all force and frown on her face. I mean the looking was like; ‘’who is this girl, does she have parol with me’’ you know that kind of look.

It pissed me off and since then I have been feeling irritated. I mean we are not dating, has she taken this too far inside her heart!

I’m thinking of moving her out but I don’t have a perfect option In getting someone I can trust like her to take care of me especially because I’ve not started walking.
Will this turn out to be a problem tomorrow? I only had sex with her ones and refuse to ever do it again because of this.
I always tell her I will appreciate you with something very nice when I heal completely, that I appreciate her support and that if she has anything to do, she can go and do it and come back but NO she never left my house and i asked myself what was she doing before I called her??!!
To even ask her say Watin you Dey before I call you, tire me because e go look like say I dey tell her to go!!!

Baba you don find wife.

jahson19:
This is deep

It is deep nonsense. The western countries were the first and only nations in the history of the world to voluntarily give independence to their colonies. The western world ended the global slave trade. If you like keep voting idiots that would ruin your economy and be blaming the west. Blacks never take responsibility.

God1000:
He's a good man.

Christians should not turn blind eye to the plights of Palestinians, we want peace, fairness and justice all over the world, they have every right to exist.

We are all created equal in the image of God.

What are you talking about? What happened when Israel moved out of Gaza? Hamas took over Gaza and made it their rocket launch pad. Israel has been the fairest country on earth. About 20% of the Israeli population are Arabs. Arab Israelis are the freest and one of the most prosperous Arabs in the region.

Righteousness2:
Peace, you say??
Don't you read your bible?
This will launch Israel into Calamities and Disaters. The likes Jeremiah and Daniel described as the time of Jacob's trouble.

GOD ALMIGHTY gives a dire warning on Dividing HIS land . See Joel 3:1-2

From yesterday when lapid gave that speech, Earthquakes increased Ferociously. At least 3 happened yesterday. That seems to be a sign from Heaven.

Dividing Israel under any guise, is Poking your hands in God's eyes. That is the red line of God's Wrath.
Every Nation or persons that Directly or indirectly joins in the Dividing of Isreal will taste the wrath of GOD.

This Isreali present Pm is a disaster in the making. His moves since he came on board has been moves that will cause Isreal pains before GOD and Man.

The antichrist is lurking around!looking to come out any Moment to confirm the Daniel 70th week Covenant with many, which will launch Israel to disaster. Before GOD HIMSELF will intervene and they Will Believe on JESUS as their Messiah.

The Rapture is Just a Breath away. Whoever values his/ her life needs to be Prepared.

Actually, your beliefs are false. The biblically land of Isreal is not the same as the political land of Isreal we have today. Cities like Jericho that were part of ancient Isreal are no longer under Israeli control. Parts of Syria and Jordan used to be Isreal in ancient times.
The land of Isreal has been divided many times in the past and there was no Earthquake.

God1000:
This is serious, so Iran's President didn't realize that he's in America for now.

I support Christiane Amanpour on this, I'm sure she will wear it if she travels to Iran for this interview, but this is USA na.

We've seen western female journalists covering their heads in the middle East because it is necessary to do so over there.

Again this is coming when women across Iran are protesting against the death of a 22 year old woman in the custody of morality police and with dozens of protesters killed already.

Amanpour failed as a journalist. Her job was to get the interview done for her audience. Putting on a scarf is the minutest sacrifice she could have made to get the job done. As a journalist, you should be extremely flexible and sometimes go through inconveniences to get the news to your viewers.
Amanpour is beginning to forget what it takes to be in her position. As a journalist its everything for the news.

Achilles881:
Obi and atiku are eating up tinubu and urchins like wild fire

Tinubu is reduced to the south west

Great2017:
The bias you have mentioned is affecting all the three candidates. It is not favouring any special candidate at the expense of the others.

Voting in Nigeria is not that complicated as you may have painted. The only skewed part is vote buying. That is what the main stream political parties code named structure. Google analytics may not be able to capture this ugly bias that our politicians celebrate.

Outside vote buying, this Intelligence may have accurately predicted the outcome of the general elections to a larger extent.

Please teach them

Achilles881:
Obi and atiku are eating up tinubu and urchins like wild fire

The Nigerian public wants something better.

GeneralOjukwu:
I love people who have guts.

One small thing. What happens if he drops out before the contest starts? Bet is off?

Then who serves as escrow ?

This is how it should be done, we meet and get a lawyer to create a binding document. It's that simple. The contract terms would bind both bodies just like in any other business.

TrackerXL:
Glad your wretched soul escape poverty from your wretched cursed land. Anyway, Yorubas have always being accommodating refugees from Igboland from time memorial so you are welcome to come slave your soul away.

There is certainly enough crumbs here for the refugees Ekedilichukwu Chisco ABC Ekesons Ifesinachi GUO GIG n others will bring from Alaigbo today. Keep it up n keep.

No problem, remain at peace

2elliot:
Don't be an idiot

You disowned your blood so I am not surprised you are insulting me. Evil man.

GeneralOjukwu:
If Obi wins 1 Northern State.... I owe you 1 million

Boss I am interested in your 1 million bet. Where are you based? I am ready to bet that Obi would win at least 2 states in the north and Abuja for your 1 million.

Alexxx2000:
Yesterday, at about 4:12pm I was at my boss's POS stand when a woman dressed in a full wine attire walk-up to my stand and asked me if I can direct her to her Son's House address around Sabon-Gari.

I obliged and she showed me a white paper. As I was struggling to read the address, my head started paining me and the writing became blurry. Immediately, I sat down and that was the last thing I remembered.

The next time I got consciousness, I noticed the money in my bag about 89,000 had gone. Before I could shout, she wasn't anywhere to be found.

I called my boss and narrated the ordeal to him and he became furious. He took me to my mum Beauty shop at the road side and mandated I get his money and he sacked me without hearing me out. He thinks it's my fault.

I was thinking he will allow me work so that he can be removing the money from my monthly salary of 12k but he didn't hear me out.

Please nairlander family, was my boss right for sacking and mandating me to look for his money or not I will be arrested?
pls.

If I were your boss, I would equally sack you. What is tomorrow another person hypnotizes you again? I think your boss should employ people that wouldn't be hypnotized. your type wasn't meant for the business.

Survivor2020:
My 17 years old brought shame to me last year she got pregnant, I have disowned her and sent her packing. She is staying with her boyfriend in his family home.

She gave birth 5 months ago she has been sick ever since she had the baby and the boyfriend doesn't have any money to take care of her. Plus the living condition is not suitable for her in her condition.

I have forgiven her and I want to take her back home so I can take her to the hospital for treatment but I don't want her to come with her baby. Please note there is only me and my 7 years old son at home. I work and my son goes to school till 5pm.

I don't have time to babysit the baby.
I want the father to take care of his child while I take care of mine.
I hope my decision is not bad?

Have you heard of unconditional love before? Your child isn't the first girl to get pregnant but you have shown that your love for her is weak. Your love for her is based on good behavior. I think you are a terrible father.

trantayo:
Tinubu is our leader. Pandora urchins are waste their time. We omoluabi , i.e Yorubas people believed in ourselves because irrespective religion affliction, we are one religion bigot like mr. Pandora . If Tinubu is not on ballot, average Yoruba would rather vote for Hausa man than vote for region where Mr. Pandora came from.

Calm down Mr trantayo. The SW has never given APC up 60% votes. Tinubu has always been integral to APC but he could not change this. How does he intend to bring in all the Yorubas who did not vote for APC in 2015 and 2019? Questions to be asked, why didn't the SW give APC more than 60% votes in the past 2 elections?

The Omoluabi argument is no more making sense. I see both Yorubas on Tinubu camp and those against him use the Omoluabi argument so which camp is for the real Omoluabis?

Period007:
What an intelligent answer

Many of them don't understand what Google trends mean. They think its an online poll.

Period007:
Intelligent answers

Thank you

[quote author=thebosstrevor1 post=116911706]Google trends does not focus on all the population but those with smartphones and those actually using google to search. Fyi, there are lot of Nigerians who do not know about google.
Just so you know 108 million Nigerians have access to the internet. That is more than half the population. Yes the purpose of google trends is not to tell the minds of all Nigerians, but it is a very accurate way of measuring the interest of people in an area.


You should also try to understand that most Ip address in Nigeria are dynamic, it changes all the time. This doesn't change anything. There is a clear pattern. 1 year ago Tinubu was leading. You can see the states that have remained consistent on Tinubu's side. Atiku for example is topping in his home state of Adamawa as expected. Tinubu is topping in Osun state as expected. This is pure science.

Sometimes your location can be in lagos but if you check your ip, it is showing portharcourt. If you use Google at that moment to search peter obi, google will think that you are in portharcourt Wrong, You can change your IP address using a VPN. IP does not change on its own. Most Nigerians do not access the internet using a VPN. Again how come Tinubu is leading in Osun and not Anambra? If Google is not so accurate. Any candidate could be leading in just about any state.

Also, we shouldn't forget that just because a candidate is popular in a given location does not mean it will influence voting patterns. Actually, It means so. It may not mean the candidate would win the area but it means many voters are interested in the candidate.

People can search for peter obi for various reasons, so a search for peter obi on Google doesn't translate to votes in real life that is also true for other candidates. True, but people spend more time searching for what interests them.

Voting in Nigeria is more than what you see on google trends. Voting in every country is more than you see on Google trends but trends help us analyze and make intelligent guesses.

Even in advertising, an advert might be showned to 1000 people, out of that 1k people only 20 people will buy the product. To understand this, let's act like the presidential candidates are products sold by your company. After seeing the trends, would you push more of Tinubu to Kaduna or to Oyo? The trends show that the people of Kaduna are more interested in the product Obi and the people of Oyo are more interested in the product Tinubu. Kano is more interested in the product Atiku.