₦airaland Forum

samstone4:
@Wanajo, Gurus other Nairalanders

Here's one I made earlier, please feel very free to comment:

"Any information/analyses of the following private placements:

Partnership Investments Ltd

Valueline Ltd and

Food Concepts Ltd."

To this you may add:

Daar Communications PO and what makes Amakpe refinery that superior to Orient?

Samstone4

None of those PP's fit into my investment philosophy so I am not even thinking of them. Not sure I am interested in those sectors of the economy. One other thing is that when you have a lot of PO's, it is a sign that the market is over valued and a correction is imminent. That is a general rule in the capital market.

On Amakpe refinery it is better in tow major ways than Orient. Firstly the supply side is sorted out. They already know the 'grade' of crude to be processed. They know where to source the crude from. They can come up with a design that fit that description  or crude specification.

Secondly they can bypass the regulated market by processing for export. Since they are close to the Qua Iboe terminal, they can lean on already available infrastructure unlike Orient that is in the hinterland.

You also expect that a lot of contractors and manpower are readily available close to Amakpe than to Orient. Hope this helps.

As per the PP, I think the Amakpe PP was done a while ago.

That said, the margin on refinery business is not that big so I am not too keen. I invest in areas where there is a monopoly or where the margins are crazy!!!

RoughCut:
Can you imagine Universal Insurance listed 16B shares? and yet you can't get that anywhere i mean how much would they have to generate in premium income to justify this overbloated shares they have listed?

So prime candidate and in pole-position to do a share reconstruction and that brings its own problem of nominal price syndrome!_{another first on nairaland!}

Yes Universal listed 16b shares but who are the owners of those 16bn? Who are those trading?

Some brokerage house basically warehouse the shares and no selling until after N3.00. Problem with it is that most of the buyers are going to DUMP thus causing a free fall!!!! With 16bn shares, once the certificates etc are out, it is very difficult to manipulate the price. Those insurance guys are just clueless!!! Hoa many banks have up to 16bn listed shares?

flakyy:
Yodi how you dey

Dont forget that AIICO is three companies in one now, AIICO merged with NFI insurance which used to be listed and LAMAK insurance, We should be seeing a three in one result when they eventually release it.

Just to help you see that it may go beyond N8.00

Hope you also know that the mouth to be fed has also increased!!!!!

aktopgun:
na now i know say u be proper winch person!!    

bros wanajo, remember that one u wan sell for me yesterday? i don order am today sharpish with my cutix profit

Hope sey you get am BUY sha. Na huge volume was traded today!!!! I think the thing land for CSCS just on Friday so trading should be easier now and the price may stabilised.

As the IPO vaccines no dey my body yet, I am still waiting for the listing of my Investment and Allied Assurance. Na that one be the killer!!!!

RoughCut:
i read the NEGRIS thingy but i'm having trouble differentiating between this company and CI Leasing and  Japaul Oil _{not that i'm complaining} once its listed that's another CI Leasing and Japaul Oil all rolled into one.

Better days are here regardless if Yar'Adua's election is annulled or not!

Will wait for the prospectus of NEGRIS. Detailed someone already to be harassing one of the directors. No slacking for that one. Conering Solar Turbine market alone is enough to sustain them.

Napolean:
@ Loma

I would suggest you channel your 5m into oando. Tell your brokers to perform as todays volume was thin. I do not like this cico thing but at the same time I am not willing to divest from oando in a hurry.

@ WindyWendy I smile with you, my head is there too and I guess it will gove quite good returns.

Wanaj0 please comment on Amakpe. It is more viable than orient and if the fed government can get its act together it is a long term income earner. Londoncool na your people. All things being positive it is a good one.

http://www.amakperefineries.com/

You don spoil show!!!! with that OandO!!!! You for wait make I confirm sey my broker don buy am first OOO.

As per OandO major problem is that I don't trust Tinubu and his group. However, they seem to be allowing professionals to handle the Energy Services sector. Got some peeps who are working for them on that. The upstream sector though risky will be a cash cow for them. If nothing, it will improve their cash flow.

Amakpe refinery appears definitely better  than Orient. However, until government shows a committment towards full deregulation of that sector, none of the guys will take the FID on the projects.

BTW, learnt that NEGRIS is planning a PP. It should be one worth looking into. They are the only company allowed to import Solar Turbines into Nigeria. They are seriously into the POWER sector.

Well, if you never jump on the OandO train now, it may be too late OOOO. That's another AP in the making. Make man just dey use style dey gather that one.

Well, need to do thanksgiving for Cappa and Dalberto. Almost 100% already this year alone. make I just sidon jeje their dey rest. Na only week 9 we just dey enter and it has blown target already.

Chellarams, what can we say again. Will organise a party once it crosses the 30.00 mark. That's another NAHCO in the making. If they just do another bonus (collected 1 for 1 before), na to distribute Turkey for March be that.

Still watching BOC. Reduced my stake there because the paper profit fit disappear. But I am loving its movement.

Don forget my May and Baker!!! The thing don almost reach 20.00. Funny aspect is that the full year result will not be interesting. 2007 will replay itself with the market dipping towards the end of Q2!! Result cannot just match with the current prices. Not complaining though.

UNTL don start free fall, no shaking as me don disembark.

My Universal Insurance still dey represent but I no see Consolidated Hallmark for nigeriansecurities site oooo. Hope no be under cosntruction dem put am or dem don delist the company Abeg, my kg for that one big ooo

Who get G Cappa to sell? Na only 562 units were sold today. My broker no fit get am to BUY.

Well, better days ahead!!!

windywendy:
woooowww! I just got word that I got 100% allotment on my MTN application. . Perfect!

_{i think i better take the day off . . . wey that my canadian oga sef}

@Pumping777: abeg wetin be that thing wey you discover this weekend. I'm interested.

I am disappointed!!!! Thought you will break the bank for that one so that you can get return money

SavvyLanre:
Fof2 and Madam Windy - no fight o,  you fit form another Democrat primaries for here.

Fof2 about wapco - I prayed, but my faith wasn't strong enough. But, i believe there is still hope for long term. however, not as good as it would have been with the lifted ban on importation - (The lesson for me, is what do you do when it doesn't go as planned)

My brother, that is a valuable lesson in investing. Sometimes what you do when Plan A fail may actually be the determining factor in your strategy. That's why even if your analysis shows that a stock is good, because of what happens if things don't go as plan, you will be constraint to really make a kill with it.

Like I said before, WAPCO will do well for the LONG TERM, but right now, na 60.00 - 65.00 range!!!

samstone4:
@Wanajo

[b]"Not sure when they will take FID!"[/b]

What does this mean?

Samstone4

FID is Final Investment Decision. Until that is done, the project is more or less a wish list.

ololufemi:
@ Wanaj0,

oga Wanaj,

How work now and hope all is well? How weekend?

When them go list this your IAA for NSE.

Ese pupo O

All is well at my end.

Abeg, make I commot for Consolidated Hallmark and Universal before I start to think of IAA. I am looking at March/April for the listing of IAA if madam Ndidi get time for them. IAA will do a 4 for 1 split!!!

samstone4:
@Wanajo

I see what you're saying about Orient.
I wish I had somebody on the ground that I can rely on for detailed information.
I know you do your best on this forum but somebody personally known to me will carry more weight.

Do you know the conditions of the loan or are you just presuming there are draconian?
The output of the refinery is not overly ambitious and I believe the consumers in the Anambra, Imo etc - that geographical area, will easily consume,the output.

It also has the first mover advantage plus it is outside the troubles of the Niger Delta.

The prospectus did say they will get the crude from the parent company oil blocs - formerly oil mining then reclassified as oil prospecting licences, in which case how do they know for sure they will strike Oil. This is Nigeria!

We cross our fingers - as we used to say the morning after the night before.

Samstone4

The two highlighted portions are grave risk that if you are in the oil industry you will appreaciate.

At what price will Orient sell the product to Anambra and Imo states citizens? Subsidised prices?? That's the key reasons why NONE of the multinational oil companies bidded for the refineries.

Secondly, what is the evacuation and distribution plan of the petroleum products from the refinery? Where is their network of pipelines etc. Will they use NNPC depot/facility? Any agreement on that? Just ask how much loss LASG suffered on the Enron/AES power project just because of NEPA (PHCN)

Yes the parent company has on oil bloc. What's the level of field development. Even if they found oil, will they develop the field to be able to support the refinery project? If the Field development should slip, what is teh fall back plan??

I don't know the conditions of the loan. I am just saying that having an agreement does not indicate that the funds will be disbursed. If the Chinese so much believe in the project, why did they not go for equity? Like I said, first time out it was about 5% subscribed, what has changed since then apart from the appetite of Nigerians now to BUY anything.

First mover advantage I doubt. I expect other refineries to see the light of the day before this one!!!! Yes they've gone far but I think right now, they are stuck. The risk was just to much for investors to make them to go ahead. Not sure when they will take FID!

samstone4:
@Wanajo

I get your point about Orient PP especially the fact that the previous effort by Intercontinental failed. Also of concern is the fact that Anyaoku(Chairman), Ekweme(Vice-Chairman) etc do not have shares in the company.
However, it is noteworthy that the Chinese financiers have approved the loan for about 85% of the total cost. That was a major consideration of mine in investing.

Samstone4

Approval of loan is just on paper. You need to know the conditions associated with the disbursement of the loan. For me, the risk is just too much. They are disadvantaged in the line of business that they are in to. You are far away from both the raw material and the market. Not sure how they will cope.

Since you have already invested, I wish you all the best. But be prepared for a LONG wait.

otokx:
Orient Petroleum is worse than Tinapa; please don't do PP on any paper project.

Kai, you wicked OOOOOO.

Naijadr:
Na wa o, like I stated last yr when it was announced, I'll say here, shine your eyes and leave Orient PP alone for now, idle money can be best spent elsewhere. I couldnt go into details then, and can't now, but somewhat of an inside perspective, but then again just my humble opinion.

You don't need an insider before you know that Orient Refinery PP is crap!!!!

Firstly this is like the 3rd time that they are doing the PP. The last one had less than 5% subscription. It was packaged then by Intercontinental.

If you know anything about the oil industry, you will see that the risk associated with this project is huge. The refinery is located in the hinterland. Where will the crude come from? How will the export be done? Build pipelines? At what cost?

Plan was to get crude supply from Orient petroleum. Now the bloc allocated to Orient Petroleum (distinct from Orient refinery) is more of gas than oil. Now gas terms are not that favourable in the Nigerian environment.

Also without full deregulation of the sector, the risk is just too much!!!!!

For those interested, all the best!

LondonCool:
@tkb417,

6bn Ordinary shares were listed today on the floor of the NSE. With an authorised share capital of N5,000,000,000 and N3,000,000,000 fully paid up, the company has opened new branches in Jos,Calabar,Oshogbo Akure and Maiduguri after their re-certification by the National Insurance Commission to continue as an underwriter of all classes of general insurance business including Energy and Special Risks.

I do not know who the core investors are or if any PP had been done prior to their re-certification. I suspect that there will be a swarm of speculators hustling and bustling for the speculative stock which would push the price then a share price reconstruction makes its truimphant entry on the scene.

From Monday we shall be curiously watching the Candlestick patterns on this stock.

Well, did the PP sometimes in July last year at N1.30 per share. Listing was planned for September but the goal post kept on shifting. I am fully sitted on this flight but willing to offer my seat to someone else at around N5.00!!!

Problem with Universal and Consolidated is that I know people with huge holdings who are there just to speculate. People that collected margin facility hence MUST exit within 12 months. Those guys in between them have over 2bn units that they MUST sell. So watchout for bazzar sales soon.

debenzd:
@Wanajo, wetin person go do now? Abi u get cash borrow me?

Me no understand this your question?

Man no get cash now. However when I sell my Universal Insurance, Consolidated Hallmark and yet to be listed Investment and Allied Assurance, then I go get some money borrow you at competitive intetrest rate. So start prayer and fasting quickly so that they can all reach 4.00 fast.

Omoba3:
Pumping: No mind WanajO jare, im sef na chief prophet of doom when im begin warn us of the danger for different stock We know you all got our back. Thanks for being your brother's keeper.

Stock prices na higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, higher,

debenzd:
@wANAJO,

I have done some digging up myself. Oando is comig out for a PO this yr. Don't know when though. They also won the one of the shell block. The price high but if person fit collect good =N=50 from d stock, e no bad at all but person go require plenty of wad o for it to be meaningful.

@Aktopgun, how u dey. How Tobechukwu? I no go talk about our teams as oga wanajo don talk . Thanks for d analysis. With Fof2, Aktopgun, WindyWendy + other gurus, all of us go beta well well this yr for NSE.

But like Windy don talk, make u look wifey face o! We no like to be second choice even if plenty money go come.

Cheers

As per OandO, you dey watch am e dey GO!!!!

pumping777:
Ha!!! You too??

Yes OO, bird no tell bird say stone dey come!!!!!!

Time will come when you will place SELL order and BUYERS no go dey for market. Some have only known a BULLISH market so let's enjoy the feelings. When the tide turns, we go dey lick the wounds also

pumping777:
Nothing new on these companies as far as I can tell.

Afrprint has not released any result since around 2004 and I am yet to see any good result from Evans Medical in the last one year. The profits have been dipping.

We all need to be careful of this "low nominal price" syndrome. It will wreck havoc in the portfolio of many folks this year when the bears come with a vengeance.
As an example, see the woeful Q-3 result announced by Academy Press today and yet the stock price rose from N5.42 to N8.28 this year alone. PAT dropped from N49M to N16M. What is that?

I'm no prophet of doom but just to ask folks to be careful. It is very risky to jump into the ship of a stock that has risen say 50% consistently in a number of weeks if you don't know the reason for the rise.

Prophet of doom thou art!!!!!!

Abeg, make we dey enjoy the loot

pumping777:
Yes o. But if na me nko?

Bonus hope dashed hence the reaction!!! Expect some panic selling!!!

Moreover, it witnessed a drop in both turn over and PAT over the 2007 result.

ololufemi:
@ Wanaj0,

oga Wanaj, na wah oh. At least them pay dividend.

Much more still dey Wapco and I dey inside kampe.

Don't understand why people were expecting WAPCO to declare a bonus. Same thing played out last year. Its akin to expecting Oceanic to declare a bonus with the jumbo 22bn shares it has got to feed.

WAPCo's result is as expected but dismal when compared to 2007. Turnover and PAT dropped. The market acknowldeged this by the loss of N3.75 from the share price. I think you should sell and re enter later. It may go as low as N65.00 like it did last year.

pumping777:
Well, it WAS on TS due to the coming PO but the current issues have over-taken that and means Wema will be on TS much longer than expected.

It's been on TS now for about 3 months and no news of the PO yet. This one don pass PO TS

E go turn to gold? Ha, make I go dust the things remove the dust jare.

WEMA's problem is more political. It is a matter of people trying to feed fat on WEMA. Some are planning to buy WEMA for peanuts. Delaying the PO was part of plans to make WEMA handicapped. Almsot all the banks have recapitalised except WEMA and some other struggling ones. In this current scenario, anything with less than $1bn shareholders fund is insufficient


Your WEMA will turn good but next time, make una shine eye well welll.

pumping777:
Please don't stir the hornet's nest

I don't think anyone can answer this one. It is on TS due to some investigations and there is no time line to even estimate. My shares are already gathering dust

Pumping na wa for you OOO. Wema on TS due to impending PO!!!!

Shares gathering dust but will soon turn to gold.

WAPCO PLC
AUDITED RESULTS FOR THE YEAR
ENDED 31ST DECEMBER 2007
2007 2006
TURNOVER N38.665b N39.647b
EXCEPTIONAL ITEMS N871m 06 NIL
PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION (N1.358b) (N1.173b)
EXTRA ORDINARY ITEMS (N500m) NIL
PROFIT AFTER TAX & EXTRA
ORDINARY ITEMS N10.679b N10.946b
N1.20
CLOSURE OF REGISTER FRI 9TH MAY 2008
PAYMENT DATE 23RD MAY 2008

WAPCo result out. can't see any bonus OOOOOOO

With all due respect, I think a new thread should be created for the Obama/Clinton, ManU Arsenal and other topics that are not stock related. That way, we can be focus as per what we expect to read on this particular thread.

[quote author=Abu-Maryam link=topic=31554.msg1983589#msg1983589 date=1203662043]@ pumping: wanajo, yodiyokun, franriri, fof2 et-ll
help your brother out, technically prestige and presco are knocking on my door but foundamentally i don't knw them. Please description needed.
Describing stock foundamentally is a begining of wisdom.
Thanks.[/quote]Don't know much about Prestige. Presco is a company that is being affected negatively by weather and unfavourable government policy. IBTC sits on the board because they underwrote the IPO which was unsuccessful. Not check the figures for a while. Profitability being dropping for a while but it appears that things have taken a different turn now. They are overdue for a bonus.

pumping777:
You no see that man wey wear cap dey chat with him assistant pilot?

crazyT:
@ Wanaj0

A no see you again for Unic flight o, abi na you dey inside toilet (with the hostess)   The turbulence seems to be deteriorate now abi?

Na long haul me I dey. I don tell you that na intercontinental flight!!! Na when the pilot don finally switch of engine and everyone don disembark that's when me go come down. For now, I am sleeping in the COCKPIT!!!! Bought @ 1.10 so no way my spreadsheet money go disappear!

Ije ngala:
Pumping777,
better go and find some JBerger sharp sharp, something go soon happen there o. That stock has only 300m shares outstanding,

pumping777:
No talk this thing again now You sabi say wall get ears

Except you know Mobolaji Johnson. If not, you go still dey queue when it is making the return journey!!! You BUY those stocks when the bears are rulling. And even then na like hundreds of unit you go dey BUY over time!!!!

I think na only me dey on board of Chellarams. Na private jet or wetin happen?  Now 27.00 and still gaining maximum everyday!!!

UNTL appears to have taxied to a stop. Make I just disembark and collect my luggage tomorrow.

Want to join the G Cappa train but the ticket scarce pas scarcity itself. Same for GREIF and Thomas Wyatt.

Well, May and Baker appears to have take off. Not much fuel inside so will have to refuel. Very good though for the long haul.

easimoni:
It took 3+years for people to break even from the last Oando PO. Dunno why anyone would invest in the next one.

Guilty as charged but with explanations. Just after the offer, there was a policy reversal as per deregulation. That basically impacted on the business of OandO. Based on that, they started re strategising focussing on Gas and the Upstream sector of the oil and gas industry.

For the kind of opportunities in the upstream, huge capital is needed. A single deep water well will cost in the neighbourhood of $40m to $80m!!!!! So huge capital is needed contrary to the marketing that they do cash and carry making use of the 40days credit by NNPC.

If OandO gets the oil filed, it will improve the cash flow and they will immediately become a MUST BUY

Izon:
Please some help me out, Since monday that I paid in some dough into my broker account, they haven't been able to procure Juli or goldlink  and today I spoke to my contact (citiinvest) and she said, the broker might just be able to get me goldlink but at 3.56k as against the yesterday's closing price of 2.49. Please advice.

Is it compulsory that you should buy those stocks?

Well the too stocks are not 'available' at least not at current prices. Your brokers offer is because he has someone willing to sell @ 3.56. If you are not interested decline the offer. If you are, take it up fast before the offer elapses.

BTW, someone has 1m units of SKYE bank to sell @20.00!!! That tells you the likely price of SKYE post TS lifting!!!

grabdbull:
It is well established and has been indicated by the gurus and gugurus that the fundamentals are very important in deciding what stocks to buy or sell. This said, let us consider AP - The fundamentals are all wrong, and speculating in this stock is akin to commiting suicide; this notwithstanding, if the PO is meant to give leverage to people who want to own controlling shares in the Company, I will not be surprised if the bidding war gains more momentum and culminates in even higher prices for the shares of the Company.

While not justifying the price of AP, don't forget that AP was more like a turn around candidate. Huge potential but affected by a lot of problems outside its core business.

As per ownership control, that will not happen. The rights issue is more than the PO. That to me shows that the major shareholders are not going to relinguish their hold.

Yet to confirm, but I think the N100bn to be raised from the rights/PO will be used in the upstream industry. I think AP has an oil bloc that it may want to develop. Will be suprised if that money is pumped into marketing.

Aside, OandO will likely be doing an offer soon on top of the $200m loan they've just syndicated.

All the major petroleum oil companies gained today with OandO gaining N7.50