₦airaland Forum

eniyanman:
Chei!! that might be true o, What do you think about the public's appetite for banks' IPO?

The everyday investor is not the problem. Imagine manufacturing companies buying PO's of banks? That's what is causing the oversubcription and the return money.

As per ETI, the offer will likely be in at least three countrie. The regulatory requirement is a distraction.

RoughCut:
The enitire Ibru family are the majority shareholders in Ikeja Hotels and they also own Sheraton Hotels and Towers in Ikeja strategically located  not far from the Airport.

Ikeja Hotels is the holding company that they use for their investment. They use that to buy into other hotel companies. The IBRU'S own Federal Palace Hotel. They won Sheraton Ikeja. They've bought into Sheraton Abuja also.

eniyanman:
agreed ETI is good company. it's been on my radar for a while. i've been waiting (seems forever) to hit N200, but e no gree. i suspect the recent rise in its share price is due to short-termers speculating on a good end-of-year result (which no doubt should be good). i plan to enter after they have sold. i concede that i might have to wait forever to hit N200 .

The rumoured IPO really affected the price. A lot of uncertainty. Listing on three exchanges is also not helping. Not all of them can go the NAIJA way.

RoughCut:
I may be wrong but from what i have been able to cobble together the Tourist Company of Nigeria TCN used to own Federal Palace Hotels in VI until 1992 when TCN was sold to Ikeja Hotels Plc and now Federal Palace Hotels is one of the jewels in Ikeja Hotels crown. Ikeja hotels now owns 31% of TCN which i assume is the same company you are referring to.

Infact part of the proceeds from Ikeja Hotels PLc PO in '06 will be used to pay for their  51% stake in Abuja Sheraton Hotels + Towers.

I can't understand why Abuja Sheraton is profitable while NICON-NOGA also in Abuja is a loss-making albatross for Transcorp

You are on the right track. So which of the hotels in the stable of Ikeja Hotels is profitable? There is something that is just not clear in the TCN and Ikeja Hotels relationship. Ikeja Hotels and TCN are both owned by the Ibrus.

aktopgun:
@wanajo

it is high nominally speaking in price in the eyes of the ordinary man. at over N230, people see the N2.3m they would need to get just 10000 units as a lot of money to put into one company. besides, its not as liquid as others even if fellas want to buy

aktopgun:
@wanajo

i was referring to ETI and why i think the interset in it isnt as it should be but see that change now that its been talked about here

ETI actually did a stock split last year !!!!! The high nominal price is not disturbing OandO

ngegy:
@wanajo
have u been watching afroil? is it worth buying anytime soon?

No be all stocks dey show for my radar screen!!! Afroil can never show for my screen. Don't know what they are into.

RoughCut:
This one don pass Premier League na Deluxe  Premier League  

You see after the IIL wahala that FBN made a FULL provision for N10bn in a SINGLE accounting year that's when I tied my relationship with FBN!!!! Implication is that any money they get back from IIL na extra profit be that. Now with a N250bn WAR CHEST, na to destroy any one that stands infront of them. You need to see their branch roll out plan. Not like Zenith that will locate branches opposite one another. You can see a strategic plan!!!

If they also decide to sell their stake in Celtel, na another bumper harvest be that.

RoughCut:
Ikeja hotels is also gyrating towards striking distance so also is NSL_{i dey struggle with my conscience for that one!}

Oand O has done a disappearing act!

Until I know what makes Ikeja hotels better than Tourist and Co, I will watch from a distance. Something is just not right!! For all intent and purposes those two companies are the same!!!!

OandO just dey gather momentum OOOOOO. Na only real Abero brokers fit jump in at that sped. With Cehvron Texaco above 300.00, AP at almost the same rice, OandO MUST get close before slowing down. With plan of a PO, except a serious jerking up of price. If Tinubu now want make I like am, make he just dash a 1 for 4 bonus!!!!

Favour08:
@wanaj0,
Do you see Dangote sugar passing 50-52 naira.

Yes at least in 20yrs time

Just kidding, fair value for Dangote Sugar is 50.00. It should be at that price by April. If not then something is definitely wrong!!!

Favour08:
@ all
I would have thought UBA will get the MUBADALLA account because of the Bello-Osagie connection to both companies.

You are underestimating FBN!!! FBN is in a league of its own.

K2:
You are on point with this one. I got returned money from FBN's PO as well. After Rev. Wanajo spoke and I did my due diligence, I started loading up FBN as well. We must ride that ketekete enter Jerusalem.
Where's Elder Napolean?

Abeg, make una no kill this elephant OOO. Na so 1m people apply for the PO!!! haba!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even companies were buying the PO instead of using the money for their own expansion.

RoughCut:
If i get 1M units of Starcomms, 1M units of  Multi-links and 1M units of Interswitch got heavy-duty units of CHAMS already then i will consider retiring to my farm in my local government area. From there i can start running things!

Meanwhile i'm also on the look-out for Mubadalla whenever they decide to show face

You can do that now. With e-mail and telephone, plus a laptop, you are on!!!!

ETI is one of the BEST companies out there. Only God knows what is holding it down!!!

Cappa & D'Alberto almost returned 100% already.

If you get liver and an AGBERO broker, you may jump on G CAPPA (maybe Cappa na dia father).

John Holt will likely follow SCOA (John Holt is a useless company)

Dangote Flour will likely push Dangote Sugar up!!! Last call to join the Dangote Sugar train.

May and Baker getting to buying range. AIICO seems to have bottomed out.

OandO is full of energy. WAPCo is adjusting.

samstone4:
@ AKT

I'm not one of the assassins although I agree with Afamako.
Discovered a long lost person on this forum recently.
I don't disclose my identity because I want to be able to discuss freely.
Back to Gapbridge, what's your take on it?

@Wanajo

Got some O & O on your advice recently. Been gaining maximum since then.
Wish I had been able to buy more but even the small amount I received was fortunate as I hear it is very hard to obtain.
Samstone4

Evidence that your broker na AGBERO broker!!! Hope you get up to 1m units though Then you wont need to work again.

RoughCut:
I think OandO has left the stable!

OandO seems to have a lot of energy OOO. At this rate, N300.00 may be the train stop!!!

This thread dey move fast OO!!!!!

For those collecting the FBN loan, major drawback is the monthly repayment of the interest. It can impact on your cash flow!!!!

For those lokking for sound fundamental stock ETI is one. Not sure what is holding it down. Whenever it will desire to move, it will hit the roof tops.

OandO is still doing welll and that will continue for a while.

Why is Consolidated Hallmark Insurance not on the Nigerian Securities stock list

Not sure the data on Nigerian securities is correct. All the other sites talked of NSE having technical problems.

LondonCool:
@All,

What would you consider to be the best premium price to buy Crusader Insurance currently on TS ? I have been stock piling it for some time now.

No wonder the thing dey scarce.

Have you being able to add Afrinvest address to your e-mail?

pumping777:
Well, you know stocks that are reasonably priced won't be affected so much. Fundamentally Nigeria-German is still reasonbly priced.

It is the over bloated stocks that are taking a beating across board. Even the sentimental stocks like Japaul CI Leasing dey hear when!!

There are gains and losses so nothing major here. NGC, BOC, OandO etc had gains while Chellarams, M&B had losses. Quite normal in the capital market!

Correction will happen after release of result. Watch and see how WAPCo quickly rest!!!

debenzd:
@Wanajo

I think there is some market correction going on here (at least to some extent). Abi na the end of month syndrome when everybody dey pay back money?

Can't see any corection ooooo. Nigerian German still no wan gree!!

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg2002499#msg2002499 date=1204141130]This short timing sef! Or maybe its still too early to complain but I started the year by fixing a particular list of stocks as a long term portfolio to review it by end of Dec 2008.

Then I made another list of the same stocks and started practicing all types of CICO, RORO, SIRO etc and has been making fantastic returns, sometimes 30% on some stocks, excellent fast moves as I thought.

Today something told me to review my activities so far and compare the value of my two portfolios. Lo and behold, my long term no trading side has done 42% this two months, while my fast CICO portfolio is trailing and is only 18% up, haba I dey go up or am I going down? Is commisions for frequent trades to blame? Is it too early to complain? My broker is an angel in all these, selling and buying like he is Musa Al farki!

What has I done wrong or do I change tacticts this early in the year? Bought Leventis and UTC around 3.85 each and jumped out around 6, now see all the money I left on the table.

All the CICO experts , you better talk nowoo or don't you guys compare two portfolios to know which system works and which don't?[/quote]One thing we all need to come to terms with is the fact that one cannot TIME the market. So when you do CICO, you are not able to 'maximize' profit. The shorter you stay, the higher your margin of error.

Studies have showed that those who stay LONG in the market actually make more profit than those that CICO. Additionally, in the US it was discovered that very few 'traders' actually out perform the market.

That said, there are certain people that are best suited for CICO. There are those who derive great pleasure in the volatility of the market. You also have people who collect short term loan and need to liquidate their position quite often.

For me, just use a strategy that is best suited for your personality. People follow strategies without considering their personality. If you are the type that will be disturbed with a 105 drop in your NAV don't go for CICO.

If you are the type that cannot do without checking prices every day then don't go for LONG TERM. You cannot survive watching your stocks remain dormant (no movement) for like a month!!!

[quote author=ty_ademolu link=topic=31554.msg2003635#msg2003635 date=1204185214]Thanks for your reply, I really appreciate it.

Do you think there is any upside for UACP? I'm thinkin of selling today at a loss. to get into ikeja hotels.[/quote]There is an upside depending on how LONG you are willing to wait.

Ikeja Hotels seems to be more 'volatile' so you can benefit from the swings.

[quote author=ty_ademolu link=topic=31554.msg2003536#msg2003536 date=1204181430]Oga Wanaj0, I know say you go dey busy this morning but I jus wan ask you quick question.

Caveat emptor observed.Do you think Vitafoam at the current price would be a good buy, I noticed that I made most of my money last year from long term stocks so I believe that is what works best for me.

I am thinking of cutting short my loses with UAC-Prop (down 10% already) and getting into Ikeja hotels and Vitafoam. abeg wetin be your take?

Would it be better to buy Japaul now at its current price or wait it out until PO buyers recieve their certificates and sell off?

I'm thinkin of selling my UACP, and Firstbank (PO) today in order to get in on the train of the following.

ikejahotel
linkassure
japaul
lasaco

Abeg you get any objections? I would appreciate your reply[/quote]My brother, not sure I can help here. Most of those stocks are not on my radar and I am not heavy on any of them.

Use to be a fan of Vitafoam but competition is stiff and their performance (not share price) is not fantastic.

I am scared of all insurance companies now due to half info being circulated around.

Figures of Ikeja Hotels look good but never saw that sector as a high margin one. Also not sure the relationship between Ikeja Hotels and Tourist Company of Nigeria PLC.

For Ja Paul, had BIG reservations about them as per their strategic plan.

LondonCool:
@wanaj0,

Thanks for the info. I did not give them any instruction to sell my FCMB shares O.I have not received any contract note for the execution of the orders from Afrinvest.I don't know how many Dunlop shares they bought, how much they bought it for or when they bought it and they couldnt even bother informing me about it. I will be migrating to Fidelity Union/ Citi Invest Cap soon, not used to being treated like that. Mike Murdock did say that its better to "go to where you are celebrated instead of being tolerated", and I was even thinking of sending that Susan a designer perfume from Harrods

London cool, my mistake. They actually bought FCMB for you.

Believe me, I saw the mails that Susan sent to you!!!!! Some dated as far back as 5th of February. Saw one for the 18th of February as per your CSCS Subscription/registration. Saw that the e-mail address used is different from the one you have on Naira land but it is still a yahoo account. My thought would be that the mails went to your Junk/Bulk mail or something must be 'stealing' your mails.

I do get a trade alert from Afrinvest once my orders are executed. This apply for both my personal and corporate account.

Abeg, send the designer perfume to her!!! She will surely appreciate it.

Well, make I log off!!!!

For those in Diaspora, wey dey make money from Naija without paying tax to FIRS, God no your house address OO!!!

pumping777:
Look again at the figures above.

Beta Glass's turnover started dipping in 2003 up till 2005. There has been a turnaround since 2005 till now. Do you expect Beta Glass to be N10 now with a forward PE of around 7? N10 in 2002 is worth a lot more than N10 today in any case so no need to make this comparison.

Most manufacturing companies went through the same cycle due to the harsh climate then and most of them and doing better now because of the enabling environment.

Should we analyze companies like Cadbury or Unilever in this same way?

Pumping, I am not talking about share prices but profitability. The figures I posted are PAT not turnover.

if N10.00 in 2002 is worth more than N10.00 today, it also follows that N714m PAT in 2002 is more than N700m today.

Don't get me wrong, I think I recommended Beta Glass here along with NGC around the 12.00 - 16.00 mark because they were both undervalued. However, going forward, Beta Glass need to come up with a strategy of how they will react to the challenges going forward. That's why for the long term I am wary of them.

loma:
Wth Love to FO2 from WindyWendy!

Where is the Green (or na white) flag and the olive branch

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg2002193#msg2002193 date=1204133540]No, Wendy. The husband would think its a MIRACLE, and both will go to different denominations to give THANKSGIVING and TESTI-MONEY [/quote]Na true you talk OOOOO

The funny thing was that the guy was angry with the broker for not warning him when he was buying. Ia sked him why he was buying and he said those stocks were very CHEAP!!!!!!!

windywendy:
Pastor! na you dey give this kind advice? No be market manipulation be this?

market manipulation ke na to engage in mutually beneficiall relationship with all stakeholders!!! The only person the guy fir sell the thing to na him wife!!!!!

samstone4:
@Wanajo, Roughcut, Windywendy etc

UAC properties has been a bit sluggish lately.

They did gave a paltry 1 for 10 bonus about 2 years ago and the dividend yield is poor.

They bought 1004 with Union bank and the bank's subsidiaries but UAC Prop eventually took over the entire thing.

The problem with Lagos state government has to do with the state demanding that they pay some tax for environmental impact of the development! This is more like blackmail because we all know that the actual population of 1004 is likely to go down after the development compared to when the money changers used to rent the flats out by the room.

Not based at home, but my understanding is that after months of inactivity work resumed in January at 1004.
My problem with UAC Properties is the fact that they keep borrowing money to finance their projects when the small investors keep asking them to do a rights issue to finance these projects. All Toms, Dicks and Halims are coming to the market to raise money but not our UAC Properties.
The parent company always insists that they won't take up their rights. I suspect they are more concerned about losing control of the company than making money for us small shareholders. This is not in the interest of the company.

I remain there but would have taken  a considerably higher stake in it if not for this anachronism.
Perhaps it will take some changes at the top of UAC before we reap the bounties - to use Nairalander language.

It is still a good stable stock that you can go to bed and forget, it will never crash at the current price.

Meanwhile we pray for a miracle to begin - as we used to say while fasting for 100 days nonstop.

Samstone4

Good insight but some additions.

Lagos state govt got to grant a fresh C of O to UAC-P and Tinubu was ready to milk them dry. As at now, can't see anywork going on there. Will check again this evening.

UACN does not have money to pump into UAC-P. Moreover debt is cheaper now than raising equity in Nigeria. That's the sad truth that will hit a lot of companies. it's not only about control.

Yes UAC-P will not crash for a lot of reasons (liquidity inclusive), but it is also not the kind of stock for an agressive portfolio.

windywendy:
Eh but the market has changed significantly since 6years ago na. Multiples are higher now due to a myriad of factors, including the new and improved political environment which is very attractive to investors. The fundamentally sound stocks are few and there's a lot of money chasing such stocks. Even fundamentally unsound stocks are beginning to catch the investor's eye. It's a different world now  

Haba, how can you compare prices from 6years ago? Someone was telling me that there was a time she could fill up her gas tank in ibadan for 40kobo. I was like   . It's a different world now indeed.

Not comparing prices. Just telling you that the so called 118% PAT growth is just taking them back to the 2002 levels!!!!! So really, BETA glass has not grown profit if you look at the 2002 figures. Right now you would be expecting a 3bn kind of profit from them!!!! same thing applies to Presco!!

Disclosure: I own Beta Glass but dey watch am well well. Not the price but the turnover and PAT growth.

@ Londoon Cool, your Dunlop was bought, your Diamond was sold and your FCMB was also sold. Hope that helps.

windywendy:
No be from my mouth you hear that one o! But wait o, volumes between husband and wife ke? If that's the case, then it looks like they ran out of steam today   Anyway, I no sabi o.

had a friend who started investing on NSE buying Poly products, NCR etc some years ago. After watching the price not moving he gave a sell order no buyers!!! na so I just advise am make the wife place a BUY order as him dey place SELL order!!!! The wife no go no say na family cross deal!!

pumping777:
Beta Glass
In 2004, they were even making losses until the last quarter. This was the year they recorded the higest turnvover of 6.1B. Now, they are poised to beat that turnover this year.

From 2005, the turnover has been growing. The Q-3 turnover for this year is already more than the FY turnover for 2006.

The Q-3 pat is also already more than the FY PAT for 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Check Beta Glass PAT for full year

2002 714m
2003 541m
2004 162,6m
2005 XXXm
2006 381m
2007 514 (9 months)

So the 2007 PAT will likely equal 2002 figures!!! So they are just recovering to 2007 levels!!!!! In 2002, not sure that the price went past 10.00 that time!!!!

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg2002101#msg2002101 date=1204132379]WanajO is very BULLISH naooooo.  948 posts to his credit so far.  E bi like say this week go good oooo as February wan give way to the ALMIGHTY MONTH OF MARCH!!!! [/quote]Ok make I keep the remaining post for my birthday

Well, I am bullish because of my Chellarams. Even the seriously over priced NAHCO still dey move. See Universal, see Consolidated Hall Mark. I beg which dey be thanksgiving Sunday?

Sold half of my OandO to run after Chams and MTN and my value still remain the same how man pickin no go dey bullish. Even UNTL that was in the red for how amny years turn blue and now almost white as the thing dey shine for my eye.

To crown it all, my gentle broker against all odds was able to buy OandO for me. This is for a psychadelic broker!!! na mimi pin dem be with plenty plenty grammar!!!!!

windywendy:
You sure 'bout that? Check volumes and values for last year. Agreed, sometimes it trades thinly, but there were several times when millions of units changed hands o.

First check the number of shareholders that they have!!! that will tell you something. Also check the institutional investors who will not sell except a major divestment (Delta State, Leventis etc).

Soon you go talk say Afroil and Capoil are liquid stocks based on huge volumes betwen husband and wife

@Londoncool, finished my investigation and I think you have wrongly accused them!!! Confirmed that mails were sent to you as per FCMB, Zenith, Dunlop etc!!! Obviously you did not get the mails. maybe they were delivered to your bulk mail in yahoo. You may need to adjust your settings. That I think is the problem.

Apologies once again on their behalf!!!

windywendy:
Yes o, I got at 13 sometime last year and then sold off after it gained significantly. I tried to get at 23 again today, but no show. It's a fundamentally sound stock.

sound, good board, good managemnt but not a liquid stock. they just finished repairing their kilns but turnover is shrinking which to me is an issue for the Long term.