Aletheia's Posts
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destinedvcde: please, i intend hanging around here more often with maths problem, do you mind?I don't mind. I like the challenge. ![]() TisaBone: your assistance helped immensely as I was preparing for my exam. I'm studying business, although I wish I could change my major, but its too late because I'm already halfway done with this degree.Glad to have helped with your test preparation. ![]() |
^ Transition probability from A to A: tpA2A = 0.91 Transition probability from A to B: tpA2B = 0.07 Transition probability from A to C: tpA2C = 0.03 Transition probability from B to A: tpB2A = 0.03 Transition probability from B to B: tpB2B = 0.87 Transition probability from B to C: tpB2C = 0.10 Transition probability from C to A: tpC2A = 0.14 Transition probability from C to B: tpC2B = 0.04 Transition probability from C to C: tpC2C = 0.82 Looking at the Markov chain above; you see that P(A) in each cycle is given by x*tpA2A+y*tpB2A+z*tpC2A, where x,y,and z are the numbers in A, B and C respectively at the end of the previous cycle. Stated in trivial terms: the number in A in a given cycle is determined by the probability of remaining in A plus the probability of entering A from B or C. It follows similarly for B and C. My preferred approach is to use Excel to compute the Markov model. Here is the output:
Find attached the Excel file. I used named formulas. Let me know if you have questions. What degree are you studying for? TisaBone: Never again in life will I ask you for any more help, please just this one last time....I have a test in 72 hours.I don't mind the questions. They keep me in practice. So ask away. I 'm glad to help. Best wishes on your forthcoming test. |
TisaBone: Problem 2^The Markov chain is shown in the attached diagram
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TisaBone: In a recent year, the percentage of patients at a doctor's office received a flu shot was 26%. A campaign by the doctors and nurses was designed to increase the percentage of patients who obtain a flu shot. The doctors and nurses believed there was an 85% chance that someone who received a shot in year 1 would obtain shot in year 2. They also believed there was a 40% chance that a person who did not receive a shot in 1 year would receive a shot in year 2.Let A = state of receiving flu shot in year 1; A' is the complement. And B = state of receiving flu shot in year 2; B' is the complement. Probability of receiving flu shot in year 1, P(A) = 0.26 and P(A') = 1-P(A) = 0.74; Probability of receiving flu shot in year 2 given that flu shot was received in year 1, P(B|A) = 0.85 Probability of receiving flu shot in year 2 given that flu shot was not received in year 1, P(B|A') = 0.40 I guess ( I may be wrong) that by transition matrix; you mean you want to find the conditional probabilities given in this table below:
So you want to find the probabilities of A ∩ B i.e. the probability of receiving a flu shot in year 1 and also receiving a flu shot in year 2: P(A ∩ B) and so on. From Bayes' theorem: P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B)/P(A) and thus, P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A)*P(A); plugging in the figures from above: P(A ∩ B) i.e = 0.85*0.26 = 0.221 P(A'∩ B) = P(B|A')*P(A'); plugging in the figures from above: P(A'∩ B) i.e = 0.40*0.74 = 0.296 And P(A ∩ B') = 0.26 - 0.221 = 0.039 And P(A'∩ B') = 0.74 - 0.296 = 0.444 So:
So. . . The probability of receiving a flu shot in year 1 and in year 2 = 0.221 The probability of receiving a flu shot in year 1 and not receiving in year 2 = 0.039 The probability of not receiving a flu shot in year 1 and receiving one in year 2 = 0.296 The probability of not receiving a flu shot in year 1 and not receiving in year 2 = 0.444 Find the percentage of patients in year 2 who received a flu shot. From the table above; the percentage of patients in year 2 who received a flu shot is 51.7% (Just add the probabilities under column headed B). Find the long range Marchov chain representing the receipt of flu shots at the doctor's office. I am not sure about this but check the attached diagram. I 'll post my attempt at problem 2 later.
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^No problems. I 'll see what I can do. ![]() |
^Here is the formal approach which yields an answer of 0.4772 (47.72%). You want to find the difference in area under the standard normal curve between z for x=1400 and z for x=1000 given a normal distribution with mean=1000 and sd=200. z = (x - mu)/sd; so z for x=1400 is (1400 - 1000)/200 = 2 z for x=1000 is (1000 - 1000)/200 = 0 Consulting your standardized normal distribution table for z = 2 and z = 0, shows that the area under the standard normal curve to the left of z = 2 and z = 0 is 0.9772 and 0.5000 respectively. And the proportion of the light bulbs produced by the company with lifetime between 1,000 and 1,400 hours is 0.9772 - 0.5000 = 0.4772. |
^ 1000 - 1400 = 400; which is 2 SD above the mean; so the you are looking for the proportion that lies between the mean and 2 SD above the mean which is approx. 47.5% (knowing the characteristics of the normal distribution). There is a more formal solution using the standard normal curve. |
Dede1: @POSTReally? The bolded words show clearly you lie, driven by your usual ethnic bigotry. Go and research the history of De Beers. |
Finally, I can "un-follow" this infuriating thread. |
Seun: We cannot revert to the old forum. It uses a completely different database, which is incompatible with the version we switched to. It's technically very hard to do and it would result in an inferior mobile experience. Our only option is to continue to keep tweaking this one until it looks right.What was the rush about? You spent too short a time beta-testing this new forum. Compared to the older one the user experience sucks. I can see where you are going with this but you should have spent more time ironing out the kinks before full time deployment. Things that will improve the user experience: 1. I like to see the "Updated" topics functionality from the old forum restored. The "Followed" link just doesn't cut it. After viewing an updated topic on the old forum it removes itself from the list of updated topics until a new post is made. The list of followed topics here just displays everything. Not tidy at all! 2. I 'd like to see the time and date of a contributor's post and not just this rather generic "xyz hours". P.S. I like the "Unfollow" function. |
Moderators! Please me no like the new layout. I can't find updated topics. . .what I see is the Followed link, which displays all the topics I posted on. How do I locate a recently updated topic. Thanks. |
^ You are welcome. |
Image123:^I didn't forget that the Church is metaphorically referred to as the Body of Christ. It is also referred to as the Bride. Does that mean my body is also my bride? The OP was quite specific with regards to his question. numo86:Your reply did not contain the necessary clarification to indicate that by "Body", you meant the Church thereby leaving room for misunderstanding (remember you took a certain someone to task for his DEFINITE statement). There is a distinction between metaphor and reality. The Church as Body is metaphor. The OP asks about the actual physical body of the Risen Christ. These are two distinct things. In any case I don't agree that the thread is meaningless. We believe that Jesus ascended bodily into Heaven and so the question must arise: What sort of body does the Heavenly Man have? He has a glorified body as we see from his pre-incarnate appearance in Ezekiel and Daniel, and from the transfiguration and the book of revelation. That this question is important is revealed by the scriptures which directly address this question in 1 Corinthians 15. |
TisaBone:^ Here's an attempt: Since there must be at least 4 females on the committee of 6, the possible combinations are: 6F + 0M, 5F + 1M, 4F + 2M; and the question can be rephrased as what possible ways to select 6 Females, 5 Females + 1 Male and so on. The total number of ways = (number of ways to choose 6F + 0M) + (number of ways to choose 5F + 1M) + (number of ways to choose 4F + 2M). Order does not matter so. Number of ways to choose 6F + 0M = 10!/6!(10-6)! * 7!/0!(7-0)! = 210*1 = 210 Number of ways to choose 5F + 1M = 10!/5!(10-5)! * 7!/1!(7-1)! = 252*7 = 1764 Number of ways to choose 4F + 2M = 10!/4!(10-4)! * 7!/2!(7-2)! = 210*21 = 4410 So the total number of ways = 210 + 1764 + 4410 = 6384 I hope this helps. |
TisaBone:^ Here's an attempt: Since there must be at least 4 females on the committee of 6, the possible combinations are: 6F + 0M, 5F + 1M, 4F + 2M; and the question can be rephrased as what possible ways to select 6 Females, 5 Females + 1 Male and so on. The total number of ways = (number of ways to choose 6F + 0M) + (number of ways to choose 5F + 1M) + (number of ways to choose 4F + 2M). Order does not matter so. Number of ways to choose 6F + 0M = 10!/6!(10-6)! * 7!/0!(7-0)! = 210*1 = 210 Number of ways to choose 5F + 1M = 10!/5!(10-5)! * 7!/1!(7-1)! = 252*7 = 1764 Number of ways to choose 4F + 2M = 10!/4!(10-4)! * 7!/2!(7-2)! = 210*21 = 4410 So the total number of ways = 210 + 1764 + 4410 = 6384 I hope this helps. |
Image123:^ (1) And they entered in, and found not the body of the Lord Jesus. (Luk 24:3) (2) But they were terrified and affrighted, and supposed that they had seen a spirit. And he said unto them, Why are ye troubled? and why do thoughts arise in your hearts? Behold my hands and my feet, that it is I myself: handle me, and see; for a spirit hath not flesh and bones, as ye see me have. And when he had thus spoken, he shewed them his hands and his feet. (Luk 24:37-40) @Topic: All flesh is not the same flesh: but there is one kind of flesh of men, another flesh of beasts, another of fishes, and another of birds. There are also celestial bodies, and bodies terrestrial: but the glory of the celestial is one, and the glory of the terrestrial is another. There is one glory of the sun, and another glory of the moon, and another glory of the stars: for one star differeth from another star in glory. (1Co 15:39-41) His head and his hairs were white like wool, as white as snow; and his eyes were as a flame of fire; And his feet like unto fine brass, as if they burned in a furnace; and his voice as the sound of many waters. And he had in his right hand seven stars: and out of his mouth went a sharp twoedged sword: and his countenance was as the sun shineth in his strength. (Rev 1:14-16) |
@Topic: I hope all you self-hating Nigerians that don't see anything wrong in the South African action will now shut up and reflect on why you are so quick to demean your nationality. [b][size=18pt]S.Africa apologises for turning away Nigerians[/size] (AFP) – 1 hour ago PRETORIA — South Africa on Thursday apologised for blocking 125 Nigerians from the country and unveiled new immigration procedures aimed at ending a diplomatic row between the continent's two powerhouses. The dispute blew up after immigration officials at Johannesburg's main airport on Friday refused entry to Nigerians over suspicions that their yellow fever vaccination cards were fake. Every day since, Nigeria has turned away dozens of South Africans in retaliation. "We apologise for this unfortunate incident and we hope this matter will not in any way affect our bilateral relations," deputy foreign minister Ibrahim Ibrahim told reporters in Pretoria. "We've put into place certain mechanisms to ensure this doesn't happen again, and we believe that this matter is closed," he added. "We are in contact with the embassy in Nigeria, to see that there are no longer problems, and that any difficulties over vaccination certificates are dealt with before a visa is issued." He did not expect an apology from Nigeria over its retaliatory actions, he said. "We understand the reaction of the Nigerian authorities." The authorities have agreed to re-open an airport clinic that would allow travellers to receive yellow fever vaccines on arrival;and to require a foreign ministry official's consent before immigration authorities turn away large groups of travellers. South Africa, the richest country on the continent, is struggling with its reputation for xenophobia -- a perception that was reinforced after nationwide attacks on immigrants left 62 dead in 2008. The government has moved quickly to mend this latest row. "Cabinet expressed shock and regret at the reports regarding how African foreign nationals, particularly Nigerians, and other nationals from other parts of the world have been treated" at Johannesburg's main airport, minister in the presidency Collins Chabane told reporters in Cape Town earlier Thursday. On Tuesday Nigerian Foreign Minister Olugbenga Ashiru had accused the South African authorities of targeting Nigerians. "What you see playing out is what we call xenophobia by South Africans against all Africans -- not just Nigerians -- including even those from their neighbouring countries," Ashiru added. Friday's incident prompted Nigeria's Arik Air to suspend its flights to Johannesburg, though it has since resumed its service. South Africa's ambassador also called the Nigerian foreign ministry over the issue. Arik, one of two airlines affected, said health officials had given the reason as incorrect or unrecognised batch numbers on the documentation. Proof of vaccination is mandatory before one can enter the country. Sales of fake vaccination cards are common at Nigerian borders.[/b] http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5itIYvwwI88rv-uVPK9LXopiIkB2g?docId=CNG.9f33b3820e09f2b141b9d4a30d1ea33b.381 |
South Africa apologizes over Nigerian deportations South Africa has apologized for a mass deportation of Nigerians, saying officials at Johannesburg's main airport did not properly check their health certificates. The Associated Press South Africa has apologized for a mass deportation of Nigerians, saying officials at Johannesburg's main airport did not properly check their health certificates. At a news conference in Pretoria Thursday, deputy foreign minister Ibrahim Ibrahim said: "We wish to humbly apologize to them, and we have." Two diplomats from the Nigerian High Commission accompanied Ibrahim to the news conference, but refused to comment beyond a joint statement that described tit-for-tat deportations the two countries say should not affect their relations. On March 2, South Africa deported 125 Nigerians who, according to airport health authorities, carried fraudulent yellow fever cards. Since then, authorities in Lagos have deported South Africans, raising health concerns. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2017693938_apafsouthafricanigeriadeportations.html |
. . .interesting to note so many old names on this thread. ![]() @wordtalk (formerly known as Viaro): where hast thou been? Welcome. |
Beaf:^ Err. . .Sir, Nigeria's highest point is Chapal Waddi on the Mambilla Plateau which is one of the most beautiful places in Nigeria. You are right though about: Beaf: |
Joagbaje:^Again: which bible verses prove this? A liar is one who tells untruths. You are a liar who tells untruths against the witness of scripture and the words of Jesus stand in stark contrast to you befuddled greed-fueled fantasies: And Jesus said unto him, Foxes have holes, and birds of the air have nests; but the Son of man has nowhere to lay his head. (Luke 9:58) mba emeka:Both you and Joagbaje are crass thieves in thrall to greed. Who should I believe? Jesus who said he had no home? Or you two-faced doofuses? What do you understand by this verse: Jesus told him, "Foxes have holes and birds have nests, but the Son of Man has no place to rest." You greedy grasping thieving lot will go to any lengths to justify your worship of Mammon. Apropos this thread. . .from the thread that gave rise to it: Joagbaje:^ The bible doesn't say where the Ethiopian got his copy of Isaiah. . .and I am not interested in conjecturing like you Jo Wolf. In any case here is the command in Deuteronomy: And it shall be, when he sitteth upon the throne of his kingdom, that he shall write him a copy of this law in a book out of that which is before the priests the Levites: (Deu 17:18) Doesn't it suggest to you the possibility that the Ethiopian did not buy that scroll? In any case it is well noted how desperately you avoid showing us the Bible verses that prove that "Jesus definitely sold some stuff". I shall now be direct: You Joagbaje are a thief following another thief by name Chris and an apologist of Judas Iscariot. How do I know that? By your fruits which are plain for us all to see. It is interesting to note that the justification you offer us for Churches buying and selling and "Jesus definitely sold some stuff" is that of Judas: Joagbaje:In quoting Mark 14:5, why did you omit verse 4: And there were some that had indignation within themselves, and said, Why was this waste of the ointment made? (Mar 14:4)[/b][/i] And ignore: Then saith one of his disciples, Judas Iscariot, Simon's son, which should betray him, Why was not this ointment sold for three hundred pence, and given to the poor? This he said, not that he cared for the poor; but because he was a thief, and had the bag, and bare what was put therein. (Joh 12:4-6)[/b][/i] Judas as we all know so loved buying and selling that he sold Jesus for 30 pieces of silver. So Joagbaje why do you love buying and selling so much? What is your price? |
Joagbaje:^ The bible doesn't say where the Ethiopian got his copy of Isaiah. . .and I am not interested in conjecturing like you Jo Wolf. In any case here is the command in Deuteronomy: And it shall be, when he sitteth upon the throne of his kingdom, that he shall write him a copy of this law in a book out of that which is before the priests the Levites: (Deu 17:18) Doesn't it suggest to you the possibility that the Ethiopian did not buy that scroll? In any case it is well noted how desperately you avoid showing us the Bible verses that prove that "Jesus definitely sold some stuff". I shall now be direct: You Joagbaje are a thief following another thief by name Chris and an apologist of Judas Iscariot. How do I know that? By your fruits which are plain for us all to see. It is interesting to note that the justification you offer us for Churches buying and selling and "Jesus definitely sold some stuff" is that of Judas: Joagbaje:In quoting Mark 14:5, why did you omit verse 4: And there were some that had indignation within themselves, and said, Why was this waste of the ointment made? (Mar 14:4)[/b][/i] And ignore: Then saith one of his disciples, Judas Iscariot, Simon's son, which should betray him, Why was not this ointment sold for three hundred pence, and given to the poor? This he said, not that he cared for the poor; but because he was a thief, and had the bag, and bare what was put therein. (Joh 12:4-6)[/b][/i] Judas as we all know so loved buying and selling that he sold Jesus for 30 pieces of silver. So Joagbaje why do you love buying and selling so much? What is your price? |
. . .and right on cue your alter ego and second ID Azibalua shows up. "Pastor" Jo Wolf; we are wise to your tricks. ![]() |
Joagbaje:^ Running around chasing your own tail. . .Jo Wolf. Is that link the Bible? False teacher of the genus lupus, why needs you go outside the bible to another man's conjecture and thoughts? Again: Which Bible verses definitely prove that "Jesus definitely sold some stuff." See your life, "pastor" Jo Wolf. You are doing everything possible from your playbook to avoid answering the assignment you set for your self. If you do not or cannot show us those verses. . .it is proven again that Joagbaje is a liar, indeed a lying false teacher as we were warned to be on the watch against. |
Joagbaje:^ Losing it, aren't you Jo Wolf. Oh I see, it says in Acts 29:1 that Chris & Anita sold the scrolls to the Ethiopian eunuch. Joagbaje:^ ![]() Epic fail. . .Jo Wolf masquerading as a sheep. Satan your master cannot help you and neither can Chris your god. Show us here which bible verses show that Jesus definitely sold some stuff. Or else remain a certified liar and snake oil salesman. |
Joagbaje:^Did the Ethiopian eunuch personally tell you this? Or you imagined this? Which bible verse shows the eunuch bought the scrolls he was reading? Joagbaje:^So? What relevance is that to Churches Now Market Centres? Joagbaje:^Is that what Jesus commanded the church to do? Buy and sell things? Joagbaje:^If not anything. . .you are a consistent liar? Where in the scripture is it stated that Jesus "definitely sold some stuff"; apart from his metaphoric reprimand to the Laodicean church. |
justcool:^ ![]() Pluto exists in this (according to you) seventh part of existence wherein we reside. . .so by your belief system it is accessible by us. Pluto is directly observable by telescopes and a man-made probe Voyager 1 has gone beyond Pluto's orbit and is currently approaching interstellar space so it is conceivable that with a fast enough propulsion system, men may reach Pluto. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Voy1_8feb2012.jpg/170px-Voy1_8feb2012.jpg Your thesis is inconsistent. You say existence is divided into seven more or less hermetically sealed parts with no possibility of interaction or exchange between these seven parts. How then did you know the other six parts exist? You more or less are stating the idea of the existence of parallel universes in other ways. |
Concerning the Great Pyramid Let us turn our attention briefly to the matter of the purpose or multiple purposes of the Great Pyramid, drawing for our discussion on both the exact measurements made by modern scientists and the mythic legends of the remote past. A few facts: |
Did "Aliens" walk the earth in the past. I believe yes. . .by alien I understand them to not have been earth-born but fallen angels. Thus there remains in the memes of older pre-modern civilizations stories of departing otherworldly beings e.g. Quetzacoatl of the Aztecs and so on. justcool:^ Err. . .just one question: if it is impossible to traverse from one part to the other and there is no interaction as you say, how did you know that the other six parts exist? |
diluminati:^ And what would this exercise achieve?. . .You are no longer a Christian, so the question of who is "spiritually sound" between the two ought not to arise for you. BTW: rather compare their posts to the Bible; neither of the two is the gold standard, so comparing their posts side by side is an exercise in futility. |
mabell:^ ![]() Now this is hilarious! Shall we resurrect some older threads concerning Joagbaje's James query and what it means to be born again? Threads that showed that Jo has a poor grasp of elementary principles and is still struggling with milk when he ought to be feeding by now on meat. |
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