₦airaland Forum

Ficklemind:
Good evening, please how do I politely tell my married ex to stop bringing back our past memories?

My ex and I separated on good terms, he is AS likewise myself so we had to go on our separate ways. It over 6 years that we separated but we still talk once in a while. I don’t have any feelings for him anymore but I don’t know about him and I don’t have any intention of seeing him either though we are far away from each other.

I don’t want to block him and I don’t want to offend him ,but when I take a picture with a random male friend and I upload it on my status ,he tells me he is jealous that the guy is an idiot for holding me or touching me. Asking for my recent pictures and sending me my old pictures that I don’t even remember existed.

This guy is married with a child. How to I politely tell him to stop all this because I don’t feel comfortable with them.

He is successfully keeping you distracted while he is moving on. It is a classic move by men and some women. You enjoy his attention, and you may not admit but if you are observant enough, you will struggle to bond with new men in your life. Severe all communication with him immediately.

jumper524:
The moment you have a different opinion, these set of individuals begins to bring in your family history and measure your success.

Has Peter asked himself why the previous leaders failed?
You think they don't have good plans or better policy to implement?
When fella kuto tells you Nigerians are their own problems. He's not sugar quoting his words.
Everyday on TV and radio stations, they keep talking about how bad leadership is the problem of Nigeria nobody is talking about bad followership.
Let me give you a good example.

MY secondary school GSSkuje is a govt school with Ssubsidized school fees.
As at 2011 during my ss2 days, we paid 12k as school fees for boarding. We were fed at least an average size of meal 3times daily. In some situation, there's are excess of food and we go for double ration. In very rare occasion food doesn't reach everybody. It can happen atmost 5times a term.
As at then we were 44 in class (commercial class), while A class which is science had the most 55.
Learning was easier and effective.
Last year I visited the school and its been divided into 2 sessions.
Morning and evening. The science class had about 100students. Learning is now more difficulty.
Ask yourself why is it like this?

The school fees is less than 15k. More classes has been built compared to when I was there.
But now the school is a shadow of it former self.
If my father who had three boys and pays his task sent two of his three children to a Ssubsidized govt school, is it fair with mr Bongo (name was modified not to offend anyone) who has 17 children and manages to send 9 to the sane govt school.

Subsidy that's meant for us all. Only 1 man sent 9 children to benefit from.

If nobody talks about our ever increasing population with this our hate attitude of improving our personal productivity we would never get anywhere.
Politicians would only try no matter how Good they are but it'll end in shabbles.

In the 90s there were less amount of Lea schools but then education was effective.
Our leaders have increased the number of schools compared to the 90s but education is very ineffective.
The leaders have fulfilled their campaign promises of building more schools but has the masses fulfilled its?
Nigeria ain't China and we don't have as much brains as China, we better cut our coat to our sizes.

This is a truth many Nigerians dont want to face. As a parent, you are a wicked failure if you mass produce offsprings beyond your income and training capacity. You have no right to blame political government. You failed with your own immediate government which is your immediate family. You are a big dunce and i always wish i had military powers to discipline those mass idiots who breed mass poverty.

nameo:
It is that analysis that is completely Emotional. In fact, you literally put those figures off your azz.


Obi will win the SE, SS, NC and will be 2nd in the SW. He will get as much votes as he can in parts of NW(e.g Kaduna and Kano) and NE( Christain and minority parts of Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Adamawa, Borno).

By tne way, this above also aligns with the data from ALL scientific poll done so far on this elections.

Cheers

Dont hide under region win. Provide your states and the expected votes. If you want to hide your head like an Ostrich in sand you may believe a "Nextier poll" that project Obi will win Atiku in NW.

raumdeuter:
I think both APC and PDP will meet 25% in 24 states

i agree, although there is about 20% chance of APC and PDP not meeting the requirement.

nameo:
No way, Obi is not winning the popular votes in the coming Presidentials. No way.

What is not known now is if he can get 25% im 24 states and/or FCT.

https://www.nairaland.com/7556641/2023-presidential-election-states-states#120674988

Show me the path to Obi s popular vote in the thread i created. I expect a reasonable critique not emotional tirade.

raumdeuter:
Run off is between the top 2 candidate while anyone below 2nd drops off

1st and 2nd will be Tinubu and Atiku

Not correct. I also felt that was the case until i checked the consitution.

So if Tinubu wins 15 states and 12.5 million votes but did not neet 25% of votes in 24 states and fct. And Atiku has 11million with 10 states won. And obi has 6.5 million votes with 11 states won.

The run off will be between Tinubu and Obi

bjdon:
I am from next door Edo, I have a lot of Delta friends that are grassroot politicians, and they are all saying the same thing that LP will win the Presidential poll in Delta and APC will win the governorship. Okowa is HATED in Delta and he's also fallen out with Ibori. If you understand the dynamics of Delta state politics, you will rush to put on a bet that LP will win there on the 23rd!

Lp is not APC. Labour party no matter how much it appears to win will onlyvtake second and structure is key my brother. A goat from some parties will almost win election in some states. If Okowa was not on the ticket , i would have changed the projection. He recently borrowed about 100 billion. You think that money is for play. There will be vote buying,and other harassment also. e.t.c

raumdeuter:
Obi will not make any rerun, Show me a pathway for Obi to make top 2

Atiku vs Tinubu. Atiku wins because all the SE states that would have voted for Obi in first round will vote Atiku in 2nd round

Tinubu has to win at first ballot otherwise he will lose

he may win highest number of states won in the top 2 losers.

The constitution recognises who has the highest number of states won in the runner up and second runner up not the second highest votes.

MrEverest:
Watch how the urchin will run away now you asked him to bet.

They always write rubbish about how Tifnubu or Atifku will win but the moment you ask them to bet, they will run away.

Poor urchins are trying to use propaganda on people who are wiser than them😂😂😂

There is no point betting. The election is 18days from today. I don't need his Naira.

Alcatraz001:
You succeeded in saying nothing. What is party structure? Will the votes of new LP voters not be counted or will LP voters be killed on Election Day? Say something.

For example, millions of Nigerians registered for PVC just to vote for Peter Obi. What will the structure do to their votes? Please be more elaborate in your explanation.

what is new LP voters? A good chunk of Peter Obi advocates today voted Atiku in 2019. Some dont even have PVC. Some are so naive and think because they are loud advocates they subconsciously believe their one votes will be counted as hundred. Roughly about 10 million new registrants in all 36 states of the federation. There is nothing out of place in that added number. Similar numbers from 2015 to 2019 election.

The SE had the least new voters from all the 6 regions. 10 million new voters across Nigeria is average of 300,000 new voters per state. Don't be carried away by social engineering my friend. At least 50% of those will not collect their PVC nor vote.

Some also consciously believe that new voters in zamfara, borno , e.t.c have registered to vote Obi. What tomfoolery ?

The votes projected for Obi will be a hard nut to crack, but i believe political soldiers like you will help him achieve his well deserved 3rd position.

Sammy07:
Hmm do you know that.

PDP also has large amount of Yoruba voters in Lagos state?

Let sanwo olu, Fashola or Ambode decamp to PDP and contest for Lagos state election.

Then let a well known non Yoruba contest in APC

And see the outcome and margin.

So to me, no any state in SW will Obi have up to 25% apart from Lagos and with the help of Indigenes or Yoruba. (They constitute about 70 or more % of Lagos residents)

Bros give your rivals hope small na .........In my analysis, Labour party should have about 30% of Lagos votes. In other SW states, there was none with over 25% of the votes. All anti Tinubu votes that goes to Obi will always be victory for APC This election would have been difficult without Obi.

They needed to feel they could win to get to this point and not gas out. The election is between Tinubu and Atiku, but in 3 weeks . i bet it will be cries of rigging from certain youths who follows trend and vibes.

Ttalk:
What was the outcome when they supported Jimi Agbaje?

Besides this is Presidential election and not state or LG election. Yoruba have a strong stake in this election and they would prove that on election day

Your points are valid. At the final analysis. A lot of factors will come to play.

garfield1:
True but there is no way atiku wins tinubu in edo.it is possible in imo and kebbi but not edo

As of today Obaseki still supports Atiku, the governors influence still has a role, the differential between APC and PDP is not quite large. You may be correct.

garfield1:
How will lp get 120,000 in zamfara

He enjoys his fantasy.

garfield1:
Your predictions is the best so far but pdp cannot win apc in Edo and imo esp Edo.tinubu is more likely to win kebbi than jigawa and katsina.pdp won't get 25% in kwara.their votes in borno,yobe is too high

I will prefer to put it as it is now. Don't forget that the votes in Senatorial and HOR for a party will not be the exact performance for Presidential. I am certain some will vote APC in Senate/ HoR and a different party in presidential. This is applicable vice versa.

[quote author=ezechi242 post=120678340][/quote]Your labour party chances in the NW & NE and NC is quite laughable.

To make good analysis, you must learn to disassociate your emotions from your preference or want.

You make me remember students after exams who rate their performance "A" and barely gets an "E" when results are out.

Are you joking?

Ttalk:
Yes, SW has voters from another region in their states but count them as inconsequential in SW politics, in Lagos, the nonindigene has been entrenched into Lagos culture that the few of them who are into politics and wanted to vote would go with Tinubu based on his performance and impact in Lagos.

You can't convince a Lagosian to vote Obi ahead of Tinubu using performance and competence as a yardstick.

Do you remember the Ikeja cantonment bomb blast and how Tinubu was able to douse and arrest the disaster which could have caused more havoc, that is one of the parameters a true Lagosisn will use to access Tinubu rather than all these religious noise and abuse that is being peddled around.

If 50% of Igbo reside around Ojo and Amuwo Odofin, and their population is not half of Yoruba people in that area that would make them win those two LG, then how will LP get 35% in Lagos?

Non indigene influence on Lagos politics can not be understated as inconsequential. In places like Ago /okota, Mafoluku,, festac e.t.c Non indigenes won election against indigenes for obvious reasons.in 2015. Voters decision is not always about performance, sentiments usually play a strong role.. Tinubu's handling of cantonment bomb blast was in 2002, many lagosians most likely do not remember that in making a decision.

Neckpresser101:
Where are you living?
Did you see obis campaign at warri and Asaba?
Governor's don't have influence on the voting power of the people . Delta state is the most obidient state in SS I kid not go to warri , asaba and sapele even ozoro here sure they'll vote sherrif as governor but be rest assured Delta is obidient .

Make we bet

His labour party will be his albatross. Nigerian youths will learn what party structure means more after February 25, 2023. Most don't understand it. It is applicable any where in the world. It is stronger in the political terrain like Nigeria.

exuberant and noiseful voters only have one votes.

Neckpresser101:
PDP win Delta State and bayelsa? What kind of weed are you smoking are you joking?
😂😂 You didn't add kwankwanso party in kano other k states

This is my analysis you can provide your figures for Delta. At the end. Delta state has their son on the ballot as a spare and you can be rest assured a 25 years continuous PDP party structure winning polls is not a joke. .

Kwankwaso votes were largely accounted for in PDP votes and partly in APC votes in Kano. He is loosing supporters daily in his supposed stronghold of NW. He will bow out and pick a side or get in to the polls severely battered.

Sammy07:
But the minority are very insignificant?

And not all minority will vote one way, some are party members

And minority are all from different ethnic groups

You are correct about not completely ruling out religion bais

In Lagos for example, SE lagos residents typically votes one way (not less than 85% of them) - It is usually anti Tinubu and PDP is the usual beneficiary. I am ashamed to say, hatred is a big motivator by the way. The SE also have a sizable number of Lagos residents. There are some Yorubas that believe Obi is the answer, they are also a sizable minority (hundreds of thousands in Lagos)and their choice have been accounted for in this projection.

Sammy07:
He tried.
But I noticed that he's allocating LP vote based on Religion something. Which he will be wrong, majority of westerners don't vote based on religion.

I would prefer, the bulk votes he's giving LP should be given to PDP.

Even Ondo could pull a surprise, and go PDP way.

SW states also have other voters from other regions living within them and you can't completely rule out religious bias in voters decision. You are right when you said majority of westerners don't vote based on religion. The minority must be accounted for by the way.

Ttalk:
You try with your unbiased analysis, but I don't see PDP having more votes than APC in Kebbi state.

You equally attached more importance to LP in SW.

In Lagos for example, those who would vote are partymen APC and PDP people, the other group are just socialite who play football and post picture on Social media on the day of election.

Lagos state election is going to be very interesting, just watch and see how LP perform woefully even in it's dominated area like Ojo.

As for other SW states, the number of votes LP gets will be the reflection of number of Igbo living and registered in that state.

Overall, your prediction is without sentiment

Former Kebbi Governor Adamu Aliero a senatorial candidate win at the supreme court recently boosted PDP chances. I usually drown sentiments when making this sort of analysis. LP votes in Lagos will be a combination of SS/SE and some Yorubas too.

Honlucas:
Poster LP can't win Delta ..
That Ur stat is unrealistic in Delta State .

Ceteris paribus

LP did not win Delta in what i posted, check again.

My 2019 presidential election analysis was over 98% correct. I have studied and analysed the 36 states based on party structure, voters turn out projected. I will revisit in 3 weeks.

North Central
Plateau
APC- 320,000
PDP - 300,000
LP - 350,000

Benue
APC- 220,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 300,000

Kogi
APC- 260,000
PDP - 210,000
LP - 40,000

Nassarawa
APC- 250,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 200,000

Kwara
APC- 350,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 30,000

Niger
APC- 380,000
PDP - 300,000
LP - 40,000


FCT
APC- 180,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 250,000


South East
Anambra
APC- 50,000
PDP - 120,000
LP - 650,000

Enugu
APC- 60,000
PDP - 100,000
LP - 450,000

Ebonyi
APC- 120,000
PDP - 110,000
LP - 320,000

Imo
APC- 200,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 400,000

Abia
APC- 70,000
PDP - 120,000
LP - 400,000


South West

Lagos
APC- 850,000
PDP - 350,000
LP - 550,000

Ogun
APC- 400,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 80,000

Osun
APC- 450,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 50,000

Oyo
APC- 550,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 100,000

Ekiti
APC- 250,000
PDP - 50,000
LP - 35,000

Ondo
APC- 350,000
PDP - 150,000
LP - 100,000

South South
Rivers
APC- 200,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 400,000

Cross Rivers
APC- 200,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 200,000

Edo
APC- 200,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 350,000

Delta
APC- 250,000
PDP - 550,000
LP - 300,000

Akwa Ibom
APC- 200,000
PDP - 270,000
LP - 280,000

Bayelsa
APC- 120,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 100,000

North East

Taraba
APC- 180,000
PDP - 320,000
LP - 120,000

Bauchi
APC- 300,000
PDP - 500,000
LP - 50,000

Gombe
APC- 250,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 30,000

Yobe
APC- 350,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 5,000

Borno
APC- 650,000
PDP - 300,000
LP - 40,000

Adamawa
APC- 200,000
PDP - 550,000
LP - 40,000


North West

Kaduna
APC- 650,000
PDP - 500,000
LP - 250,000

Sokoto
APC- 350,000
PDP - 550,000
LP - 30,000

Kebbi
APC- 400,000
PDP - 450,000
LP - 10,000

Jigawa
APC- 500,000
PDP - 420,000
LP - 10,000

Kano
APC- 900,000
PDP -850,000
LP - 70,000

Katsina
APC- 600,000
PDP - 550,000
LP - 30,000

Zamfara
APC- 500,000
PDP - 300,000
LP - 5,000



It is 19days to election.

APC with roughly 12.5 million. PDP with 11 million votes and LP with 6.5 million votes.


NNPP is a party that will continue to suffer attrition, a sizable part of Kwankaso votes have been allocated to PDP by the way, if the presidential flagbearer decides to pledge alliance to APC, the margin gets bigger.

MadamExcellency:
El-rufai killed Tinubus's Presidential ambition by telling him that Northerners wouldn't vote for a Christian Northern VP candidate. He encouraged him to do what he did in Kaduna and now see where it landed Tinubu.

El-rufai is working against Tinubu in preference to his Fulani kinsman.

you are analyzing a fiction only existing in your head. 😏

They have started again. Same unfounded rumours late May and early June 2022.

Johnnyessence:
borehole drilling in all the 332 wards in Osun State . It’s part of projects to mark his 100 days in office

You no get shame?

This womans speaks gibberish. Buhari did not have 15 million votes from the north at any time. She surely is not intelligent but cunning. She is trying to undermine the influence of the south west in Buhari winning the 2015 election. She is a little old cat thinking herself a lion.

richidinho:
Matawalle won in PDP before he decamp to APC

he did not win at the polls. He lost by a wide margin to APC, but the ApC candidate was disqualified at the supreme court.

Pdp won Bayelsa and Zamfara at the supreme court.

Workch:
he bought votes, now Buhari is blocking that.

Can Tinubu win this election without buying votes?

yes he will surely win. PDP own goal was to provide Obi.

Quote me in less than 5 weeks.

This election will be +-2% of

Apc- 12.5 million votes

PDP - 11 million votes

Lp - 6.5 million votes

He does not have to buy votes to win.
Feel free to call me out after election. APC votes may increase based on other factors as the election draws nearer.

I dont miss my projections. 2019 presidential election , i was 99% accurate

Workch:
Tinubu is not a master strategist, he's a fortunate, corrupt and devilish person who plays money politics. It's why he's complaining about he CBN policies.
It Wil affect him

Before APC primaries when he spoke in Abeokuta many of you stated he is finished and will lose APC primaries. I repeat he is a master strategist, some people let his looks deceive them..

Show me anywhere in the world where politics is not played with Money. His political disciples are everywhere and typically are distinguished. The VP is one of them.

This election is done and dusted. Only death will stop him.

Workch:
Tinubu thinks that he can fight with Buhari? That's a political suicide.
You abeokuta twice to talk down on Buhari, a man on which influence you want to ride on to get votes in the north.

Tinubu is so arrogant, this will cost him northern votes if care is not taken. Buhari doesn't want what happens at the primaries where money was used to get Tinubu the ticket to happen during the general election hence the stringent CBN policies.

Tinubu should better calm down because he has nothing to get in SS and SE, the only hope that he has is the north. If he falls out with buhari, then he's finished.

But i believe you want Tinubu to lose. Why are you warning him?

Tinubu is a master strategist and he knows how best to play his game.