₦airaland Forum

Iykenuwa:
He needs 25% votes in two-thirds of the 36 states.

Two-thirds of 36 is 24.

Southeast: 5 states

Southwest: 6 states

Southsouth: 6 states.


Add Benue, Nasarawa, Benue, Plateau, and other northcentral states where he is sure to do well, and you have over 24 states.


One thing the 2011 elections taught me, you don't really need the core North to win the presidential elections, just do very well in the areas I listed above.

and labour party is the same as PDP?. If pdp fields a goat in certain places they will win, Likewise APC.
2011 elections was largely inflated and rigged. It is less than 100days, it will shock many youths.

Eriokanmi:
Be deceiving yourself. What's 25% that obi won't get even in 30 states with his popularity? Mark today, he will even secure a win in 2 of the S/W states. I don't see tinubu winning in all the sw states. Osun election should teach you some lesson about his popularity there. It's his home state so don't forget. With only non indigenes voting obi in kano, he'd get the 25% of their votes, same as other core northern states. I know that's the region many are looking at. Jonathan secured this in 2011 despite then not voting him.

keep deceiving yourself. Labour party that is barely known in rural areas where 60% of the votes will come from? In Osun, labour party had 2000+ votes. Less votes than the people that attended the rally. 2023 election will teach rudderless youths what structure means in an election. It is like some youths are so stucked in their cooccon and thinks this election will be via social media votes and only in Southern Nigeria. VOCAL Minority is creating delusion of grandeur.

Sure. Even if Obi gets 100% of votes in SE and SS, he is condemned for failure on the constitutional requirement.

He can not achieve at least 25 % in 24 states.
There are 17 states in the South and 19 states in the North. While it is certain that Obi will not get 25% in some SW states, let me assume by some miracle he achieves that. Can someone tell me 7 states obi will achieve at least 25% in the North?
election against 2 gladiators PDP and APC.

If Obi was not on the ballot, there would have been a strong likelihood that Buhari will be handing over to another Fulani man.

It is not at least 25% in 2/3rd of 24 states but 36 states.

If Obi likes let him get 50 million votes, he is condemned to failure on that basis. He can not achieve 25% in 24 states. He will fail to achieve 25% in some south west states and will be lucky to achieve 25% in any state in the North.

How the youths can be deluded to think Peter Obi will win the presidential election needs to be studied.

Those youths are worse than the Northern mob that unleashed violence in 2011 when Buhari lost the election. I remember in 2010 and 2011, Buhari was campaigning with a very strong force in the North, in actual fact, it was far exceeding the social media noise for Obi that we have now, however he had little presence in the south and we all knew how the election ended.

@ Nelbless 24 years is a full fledged adult. Your fallacy is you and your family wanting to over protect her that she did not mature emotionally (last born syndrome). She is 24 years with emotional maturity of a 13 year old. You will have to let her go and let life do what you did not do correctly. It is painful, but that is the most realistic way. Keep her in your prayers.


It is funny the way you described her like a minor until you mentioned her age. I can bet you don't respect her. Respect is reciprocal, and even parents must respect their children. If you act like a bully to your minor children or younger minor siblings they will build resistance to you and will strive to prove a point that they don't need you. They usually make mistakes in the quest to prove this point.

thegroomspa:
Continue...

She went back to work, and later that day evening I started receiving a message on Whatsapp from her friend I once meet asking want happened between I and her friend...

On explaining things to her, she said there was nothing wrong that if I love her friend enough that shouldn't be an issue...

I was so angered that I stopped replying to her friend...

Then my girl started texting me on Whatsapp apologizing and at the same time swearing with her life that she can't sleep or do anything that her head and her heart are heavy...

I became afraid so she doesn't hurt herself, I then replied her and fixed a place to meet her after work...

We meet and I pointed out everything she burst to tears saying it wasn't true that it's not what I think and was swearing with her life...

I told her I forgave her...

This month made it the 7th month and i have not bleeped her since we met...I initiated it to ease up a little bit...we've made love twice now...

But I still feel insecure when ever am around her and don't trust her...

I feel like quitting...




Am so pained...

At 34 years, if she is still behaving like a love struck teenager with a fiancees colleague then her emotional maturity is weak. Will that be sufficient to end the relationship? Maybe. You may have to check for how she handles other issues.

If she was in her mid 20's i would have asked you give her more time and make no further commitment beyond relationship. But at 34 years of age and still behaving foolishly, my brother it may be a gamble if you continue.

Sergio103:
It was launched successfully.

But over confidence killed the 4 men.

Armies took to their heel..... instead of them to find their own way since the people they came for has freed...... they started wasting time.

Who on earth doesn't know the armies will always regroup?

Time management is underrated!!

from your narration, i can tell you are on the side of the ragtag thugs. This was the same way some Northerners were on the side of Boko Haram. We all know how it ended for those civilians supporting Bokoharam in the North.

Acidosis:
What is federal government? Same local people. Federal government is not necessarily in Abuja. The average policeman in your street is a federal worker.

Devolution of power. Infact we should be advocating state police. There is a reason there is a request for state policing. The comissioner of police is not necessarily accountable to the state governor and we call Governor the chief security officer.

Administration of basic things should not be governed by Abuja. Very soon we may start asking Federal govt to start building markets if we are not careful.

Acidosis:
I have always indicated the need for the federal government to take over the duties of local government environmental and sanitation officers. Local governments have failed in Nigeria, so no one is checkmating our market men and women. This is why people sell rotten meat as suya. It is the same reason market people sell drinking garri (uncovered) in the open space, usually beside a filthy blackish gutter with over a million houseflies and rodents.

After drinking that infested piece of crap soaked in ice water and groundnut, they end up spending N5,000 on medical treatment. That's how we recycle poverty in Nigeria. The cost of ignorance is very expensive.

If we hire 500k graduates as environmental specialists, our national health subsidy/insurance budget will be reduced by 60%. Additionally, we would see a remarkable improvement in the purchasing power of the people, our life expectancy over time, and, of course, a reduction in the unemployment rate.

But what do I know? A government bereft of ideas would rather employ 500k youths as political npower agents without roles and responsibilities or 200k personal assistants in ballot snatching and vote buying.

Right now, we are selling sickness in the marketplace and pumping more money to treat preventable illnesses and epidemics.

Why should federal government takeover the role of local government? Elect sensible leaders at all rung of political leadership ladder and take responsibility as a people.

id911:
You're outside the country enjoying good leadership but you want us to vote for a sick man with mental disability and Boko Haram VP candidate?

Emotions becloud reasoning. No Adult is 100% healthy. Sickness is relative. Joe Biden is "sick" Trump is "sick" Abraham Lincoln was "sick". Franklin Roosevelt, the US president during World War II was "sick" on a wheelchair as he was paralysed.

Boko Haram VP candidate because he is from Borno ?

You cant give what you don't have.

A conviction in his abilities.

I am typically gifted in visualising end result.

He will fix a lot of the fundamental issues, and his first 2 years will be plaqued with crisis.

If Nigerians elect a "problem talker" instead of a "problem solver" they will bear the brunt. I am outside that country but i want the best for it.

I can easily predict this too. 2023 will be tough. Removal of subsidy a necessary evil and a projected continued war of Russia vs Ukraine will exacerbate the situation.

alimiadedayo1:
am not comparing the currency to measure prosperity of the nation I am basically talking about the drastical fall of our currency

I saw your equating what 1000 naira can buy with what 1000 cedis can buy . No?

Nigeria's currency will continue to fall as long as we don't combat unnecessary importation. About 30% of Nigeria's importation is refined fuel. It makes absolutely no sense to be importing refined fuel 62 years after independence. We have to cure our foreign tastes as Nigerians and focus inwards. Part of our foreign taste is our affinity as Nigerians for imported foods and goods, the surge in wanting to acquire foreign degrees, e.t.c.. YOU can not but agree with me that your foreign taste for food 20 years ago is NOT the same today.

We have to grow export and only import what is absolutely necessary and leave Naira to float on market forces.

Check out what South Koreas unit currency is worth compared to a US dollar, nevertheless it is still prospering as a nation.

alimiadedayo1:
bro don't say that people are experiencing worse here.. you dont know that it is painful to discover that our highest currency has no value at all.. can you compare the purchasing power of 1000 naira and 1000 cedis together

Ghana's monthly minimum wage is 390 cedis. It is simplistic and ignorant to compare the unit of a currency to the unit of another currency to measure prosperity of the nation.

That aside, i predict Nigerias inflation will rise significantly next year when fuel subsidy is removed, unfortunately Dangote's fuel refinery will not be ready earlier than 2024.

Most ?

I doubt op understand the meaning of most.

kbower:
Wow post made FP. I wasnt surprised though cos I poured my heart out. For some people saying Mr Mike is the same as the person looking into her phone, no I never said so, Mr Mike is the man she met in school the very first day she went for registration, the man lives in London, while my madam lives in luton, which is outside London, the guy in question she met between town but he also live in luton.

As for the guy asking which school shes in, shes in uel and not Bedfordshire.

Guys ever since I stopped making I miss u calls, just like I said, she has started bombarding me with calls which I take and we talk normal, but then she now thinks am doing shady things, saying to reach u these days is hard, where were u, have u gotten home and all that. This recent events now made he bring up the guys issue once again friday night. She said she really wants me to get the job so she would really want me to link up with the dude, this time I went beserk and warned her again but this time severely that I do not want to have anything to do with someone that you have allowed disrespect and downgraded me, I said if his connect wont work, then i will get another. Yesterday she called me and said well we dont need that yeye guy's connect again, that she checked online and saw agencies that could help secure that kind of job.Today now so I dey ask am why she nor dey prepare for church, she sey she no want trouble because of the guy, sey infact he fit be sey na because of her the guy go wan go the church that she would rather stay back and that she has even blocked him. Oh well I am leaving soon, whatever the case is, I cannot die, I will only excel, I know myself

Good. A woman must be circumspect. Many ladies are permissive and careless and start adultery without planning for one. I hope she is honest with you. To start is hard, to continue is easy.

STEWpid:
Chai

Mr. Kbower,

Summary;

1. Deep down, you should know the kind of woman you married for 11 years. Her attitude shouldn't be new to you. By now, you should be able to say what she can do either you're present or not. Except you're a simp!

2. Most men cannot organize their home in such a way that it brings peace and understanding. Some men are so rude that their wife might have lost real interest 9 years ago.

3. I cannot tell my husband that I'm with a man who is lusting after me and says my azz is big; dem no born me well. Nevertheless, you should know that women go through a lot of temptation from your fellow men. Been a married woman doesn't stop your fellow men from toasting us.

4. Your both life in marriage here will determine whether it will stand over there or become even worse.

5. I have seen women do shiitss. Therefore, anything can happen especially in this case where most Africans have the mentality that been abroad puts them beyond been an African.

6. Finally, all signals have been there for ELEVEN YEARS, may be you chose to ignore or not yet enlightened enough to know their meaning on time.

Marriage in this era is changing and challenging. But I pray that you find peace and understanding between you and your wife.

Amin.

imagine. Your number 3 tells me she has lost it. A man is bold to be referring to your big azz and you are bold enough to tell your husband and still asking your husband to provide reference for him.

@Kbower, the freedom she currently feels is getting to her head, She feels like she is single all over again in a new environment. keep in mind she has been with you for 11 years and taking care of 3 kids,

She is not doing well with keeping boundaries, by adding the guy to the group call she not only debased you, she debased herself.


The moment the guy made mention of her big asss, she ought to have ceased all communication with him, but she is not realising how demeaning that statement is because of HOW SHE CURRENTLY FEELS.

Be smart, don't push her too much , speak less and act more.

Do you have ransome in cash?

Mai Mala Buni as governor of Zamfara state?

Online polls are quite skewed. Nigeria is about 50% rural. Shockingly, the bulk of consistent voters are barely online.

Tinubu is on the path to win, and sincerely the split of the opposition votes is a blessing to him.

It is still over 120 days to election, a lot may still happen. The PDP crisis is also a pain with about 4 or 5 PDP governors not commited to supporting Atiku out of 14 PDP governors.

SensetionalGoal:
All this beer parlor political analysis won't you take you people anywhere....

You people think that the extra 50million youths that registered to vote is playing right?

You think that they wasted their time to get PVC just to vote thiefnu.bu or athief.ku

Take a look at political atmosphere today in Nigeria you will simply realize ObiDatti is winning hands down.

Don't be a lazy "yoot". Where did you get additional 50 million youths registering? Bogus statistics is synonymous with one candidate in this election, i think i know your candidate.

Barely 10 million additional entrants registered from 84 million registered voters in 2019 to 94 million registered voters set for 2023

Out of the new 10 million registered voters 60% is from the North.

Youth that is mentally lazy to even confirm bogus figures don't count to critique analysis.

kcnwaigbo:
APC will also not meet 25% in cross river state.These people put too much faith in the Governors to rig.The new electoral law has changed all that

it does not have to be rigging. Governors tend to have influence because of structure and ability to mobilise voters, while it does not guarantee a win, it still guarantees appreciable votes.

N3TRAL:
Re-run is false hope that started to spread when "they" realized they had no structures in 36 States and the F.C.T but need 25% in 24 States+ the F.C.T to be president.

Below are states APC will surely have 25%.


1. Lagos
2. Ogun
3. Osun
4. Ekiti
5. Oyo
6. Ondo
7. Kaduna
8. Katsina
9. Sokoto
10. Zamfara
11. Yobe
12. Borno
13. Kwara
14. Kogi
15. Kebbi
16. Jigawa State
17. Kano State
18. Nasarawa State
19. Plateau State
20. Niger State
21. Gombe State
22. Cross River State
23. Edo State
24. Taraba State (2 of three senators are APC and 2 senators are Muslims : 1 christian senator)
25. Benue State
26. F.C.T Abuja

25% in 23 states is my realistic projection. Out of the 25 states you have listed. Taraba and Edo states are the doubtful states.

Taraba will most likely have no APC gubernatorial candidate. Muslim-Muslim sentiment in a state with strong christian population. PDP structure. It is not entirely a 2 horse race for votes in the state.

Edo is also doubtful, while Oshiomole factor will count, it is no guarantee. with a PDP structure, muslim muslim ticket sentiments.

N3TRAL:
Obi will not win 11 States. Obi will not win any state in the South South. He will damage PDP'S chances there.

Kwankwaso may not win 1 state. He will split Kano votes into three.

Well, i still tip him to win at least 5 SS states, though not convincinlgy but simple majority. Range of 45% of votes in each SS states, the other 2 big contenders will share the remaining votes.

Tinubu - 12.5 million votes (14 states won)

Atiku 11million votes ( 10 states won)

Obi 6 million votes (11 states won)

Kwankwas0o 1.2 million votes ( 1 state won)


I have a strong feeling that 25% in 24 states and FCT will not be achieved by Tinubu at the first round.

Rerun based on constitution will be between Tinubu and Obi (Obi to win the second highest number of states)

Tinubu - 15 million Obi 8 million .

@meektunz What if she is still cheating? Some ladies still sleep around in marriage even with a front of a "good woman" in marriage.

Was the confirmed cheating during courtship or marriage?

Do you have other kid(s)? If yes, conduct a DNA test irrespective of perceived resemblance.

obynzo:
you are really high walahi. Someone that cannot even articulate his plans without making obvious gaffes that shows the progress of his cognitive retrogression typical of someone showing signs of dementia.

obi does not have a manifesto .
There are series of gaffes by Obi as of yesterday he mentioned that he understood why Ortom was not paying salaries because of IDPs.
Obi that mentioned he is not different than other Presidential contestants.

You are not seeing how serious those statements are unbecoming of a presidential aspirant because emotions becloud your reasoning.

I have a conviction in Tinubu's abilities and his manifesto, i have studied him for quite a while and obviously not with the lens of hate.

Fiscus105:
The only area where Obi will have an edge over other candidates is cut excessive spending, apart from that nothing, nothing and nothing.

Even if he does that better, Nigerias biggest fiscal concern is not spending cuts but revenue generation.

A man earning 30,000 naira monthly with 7kids biggest focus should not be on cutting spendings, his immediate concern should be increasing income astronomically.

You can not give what you dont have.

Anger is not a strategy likewise hate.

A man that divorces his wife because he believes she cooks poorly and in anger replaces with a prostitute is done for.

I am absolutely certain Obi does not have the mental acuity to manage Nigeria compared to a Tinubu.

Sontima:
Some people are living 11 in one room. May God help us in this country.

God hates those who dont plan and does not bless the work of their hands since they choose to do things anyhow. Have few kids and empower your spouse in case of the inevitable. It is not impossible for the breadwinner to pass away , meaning the other spouse should be positioned to make money while they are alive in case of death.

This man should face reality and prioritise his kids and family and learn from this situation. If death happens to him today, can his family survive?