₦airaland Forum

kastonkastrol:
my fingers are still crossed

Victory for buhari
Victory for Nigeria

So are mine.
Sai Buhari

andico34:
intelligent and sincere people should take note of this scenario!!.....as things stand now in both imo and rivers....APC is not approaching the 25 % benchmark.......and the turn out in NW (that is against PVC collected...is not looking goog for APC if you use the kano numbers as a pointer)....if my analysis holds true...PDP will win

I am not sure 25% for apc in rivers and other SS/SE states is essential. From the look of things apc will get more than 25% of at least 24 other states, so apc doesn't need 25% in this region. My main concern is turnout ratio compared with pvcs collected.
Inec didn't do anything to above average turn out in SS/SE in 2011. since it looks like card readers were not used, do you think inec will investigate unusually high turnout rates this time? I think not

andico34:
in the SW alone it is even less than 25% against PVC collected....this should be a worrying concern for APC!...and with what is coming from the NW (though not all results have been released)....it will not be good for APC if those block votes from SS and SE start coming in.....pointer look at AKwa ibom senatorial district where gov akpabio won.....the votes approach 90% or more of PVC collected and if the presidency votes match that....APC might be in trouble

I wonder why this is difficult for people to see/understand. If not for Amaechi and Okorocha, the results from those states will be devastating. I am only hoping the turnout in the nort is much better in terms of percentage of collected PVCs.

superstar1:
Liar.

That is INEC statistics I gave you. I can't believe your bear parlour stats.

Guy take it easy. Where did you get your inec stats? I think you are being over confident with 2011 stats. FYI we hear Akpabio won senatorial seat with more 90%. What makes you think the others will not be like that?
Thank God for Amaechi and Okorocha, you would have seen devastating results from Rivers and Imo.

andico34:
this is not fact...percentage of voter turn out against PVC collected in the NW and SW ranges between 30 -40%...you can check for facts...if the percentage turnout in SS and SE approaches 90 to 95% against PVC collected....APC will be in trouble....lets be sincere

This is only correct for SW. So far, no northern state has released any full result. So you can't conclude turnout rate in NW base on partial result.
But it is a major concern.

abduljabbar4:
It will not work. You didn't watch on AIT when they were reporting that there is a massive turn out in Borno, sokoto, Bauachi and Gombe? And with your 100% turn out, you still don't stand a chance of winning

Sorry. AIT is a useless station. I have deleted it on my TV
All the same, those region had better be careful with the kind of result they post. Anything short of massive defeat for PDP is very dangerous

superstar1:
The percentage turn out of SE is 56% and that of SS 61%. Do the maths and tell us the number of expected votes from there.

What is even the total number of collected PVCs in both regions.

Buhari's lead is unassailable.

How do you know the percentage turn out in SE/SS?
For your info combine PVCs collected is 15m. Just 80% turn-out translate to 12m. SW has not even clocked 2m.

For me the only consoling thing is that NE/NW has also not released their results and I hope they are also watching events down south

superneutral:
Basically what a presidential candidate needs to be
declared winner is 25% in 24 states including FCT...
From the exit polls,we've received,APC will definitely get
more than 25% in these 24 states even if they don't get up
to 25% in any of the Eastern states and the south-South
states..
Lagos,Oyo,Ogun,Osun,Ondo,KwaraKogi,Benue,Nasa
rawa,Niger,Kebbi,
Sokoto,Zamfara,Katsina
Kaduna,Kano,Jigawa,Bauchi,Gombe
Yobe,Borno,Adamawa,Taraba and
Abuja..
APC has already got more than 25% in Ekiti...
If you do the data analysis of PVC distribution in APC
strongholds against PDP's,APC will definitely record higher
number of total votes no matter what happens in the East
and South-South..
APC votes in the North-West alone will cancel out all
PDP's votes in the East and South-South even if they
record 100%...

Guy relax. SW has a total of over 9m PVCs collected. But so far, we have not gotten 2m from SW and I doubt if we will hit 4m with the average 40% turnout rate.
What if the same thing plays out in NE and NW? Yes those regions have over 20m PVCs combined but except NE/NW record huge turnout, this simple maths will fail. It is almost certain that SE/SS will record 80% or more turn out (because from the look of things card readers were not used) which will give the regions over 12m votes to play with.

You are missing one big point Cramjones.
All the figures churned out by the media houses are not official - Except those declaration by inec officials are captured on video and by now we should be seeing them on youtube.
Even at that, it is your media house's word against the official's who will sing a new song.
I pray by the time the official result come out from Inec, it will not be too late.

Burger01:
Sai Buhari!

A done deal!

Don't say sai Buhari yet until the magic numbers from SS/SE are out or APC opens up a 15m votes gap

NgeneUkwenu:
Another option, is to make sure jonathan doesn't have up to 1 million Votes in NE/NW. while maintaining the current winning formular in Sokoto, Kano, Kaduna and Kastina ( Buhari should have six million comfortably with the reported turn out of 55% in the four states)

I am not so sure about this formular. The only thing I am sure of is if APC is able to make at least 15m votes in the NW and NE, then maybe we can start celebrating.

NgeneUkwenu:
I have been shouting it since 2011, I am an Igbo man, and since I became aware of how elections are conducted, I have never seen an Igbo man queue to vote in any Presidential election in South East. What normally happens is that, ballot papers will be taken to a house where all the papers are thumb printed and returned to collation centre! My mother who supports PDP, told me they were simply asked to go home and relax, that jonathan had won.

What the North should do, is simply return the same number of votes to tally with the number of PVC collecte! Anything short of that, I smell danger.


Further Information: This is what PDP will return tomorrow for jonathan form SS/SE

Ebonyi- 600000
Enugu- 850000
Abia- 900000
Rivers (If it is not cancelled)1.5M
Akwa Ibom-1.2M
Delta-1.1M
Imo State -1M
Anambra 1.3M
Bayelsa - 550,000
Edo- 270,000( Card reader)
Cross River-800000

TOTAL=10Million

Unless Buhari Matches this Number in North East/ North West.

The highlighted red fonts is exactly my point. Anything short of that is a loss.

raumdeuter:
Let me tell you the truth , NE and NW would post ver 80% for Buhari. Have you seen any result from anywhere there except Kaduna thats even close

Amaechi, Oshiomole and Rochas are causing trouble and trying to reduce the PDP rigging, Do you see any Northern PDP governor shout or even complain? About anything? All of them are very "satisfied"

The way Oshiomole , Amaechi and Rochas dey tackle Jonathan for his strongholds do you see any PDP governor or candidate dare to insult Buhari in the whole North? Actually most PDP candidate are placing Buharis picture beside their poster

You think say Hausas be like us? Millions of people are waiting outside INEC office in Bauchi if Jonathan gets anything more than 10% na wahala. WHich SS or SE state fit do that?

Tell my Ibo brothers not to go market tomorrow and na dem go first attack INEC

PDP and APC were always going to be close in SW and NC only a fool would predict landslide for any candidate here

At the bolded.
Its true that NE and NW will post about 80% for APC. But the question is 80% of what? 80% of 23m or 80% of 5m?
SW has 14m eligible voters and till this moment, I am not sure we posted up to 3m total!
I hope the CR issue will not repeat itself in the North. SE/SS don't give a damn that is why they didn't use CR (from the look of things)

I completely agree with the OP. But right now, what is important to people is to get rid of GEJ from aso rock - whatever the electioneering collateral damage may be.

raumdeuter:
SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

I have done this permutations too. And initially, I was a bit confident that nothing is stopping APC. My concern still remains though. SW is the second largest voting block. If the card reader issue caused the low turn-out rate in SW, how are we sure it will not affect NW and NE too? But we know the rigging is already going on in SE. Okorocha is alleged to have torn a result sheet and there are videos of thumb printing in Rivers. Apparently, the CR was not used in SE/SS. That is why I am concerned.

raumdeuter:
Its a battle between 2 parties each have their own stronghold

APC has the whole NE + NW, PDP has SE + SS

SW and NC are swing states

Even if SE+SS vs NE + NW cancel each other out then the SW marginal wins would make the difference

And we know we are deceiving ourselves if we think SE + SS would cancel out NE + NW

@ the bolded, I just hope you're right. Let's just wait and see.

raumdeuter:
You are the one missing the point

SW is not facing the SE and SS.

SE and SS are facing NE and NW

right now APC is leading in SW. Osun, Oyo, Ogun are posting over 100k difference each for APC. while the only state PDP won its by 50k votes

So assuming APC has +100K in each states they won thats +300, while PDP has +50k in Ekiti

That means PDP has a 250k deficit to catch up with in the SW, thats even before Lagos and Ondo

@raumdeuter
No region is against each other. The battle is between APC and PDP. As far as I am concerned APC is not doing well at all. Of what use is the 300k votes advantage in the whole of SW when Delta alone can wipe it off or if Enugu decides to fully utilise the 1.2m PVCs available to them in favour of PDP ? Except the north also utilise their PVCs fully, well I reserve my comments........

Dannyset:
The problem of the turn out begins with CR accreditation process. In all APC strongholds CR was used. This will only make the votes of the actual accredited voters count. So u can't fill the left over ballots. The Reverse is the case in SS n SE. CR has been jettison. So they just hav to fill the ballot to even 100%.
All my stories amount to one thing; rigging. U wonder why uv not being seeing their result since?

@Dannyset
I understand. It is not a level playing field at all. I will not be surprised to see 10m block votes for PDP from SE/SS

raumdeuter:
The SW and NC is battle ground and would be naturally close between both parties

Its the numbers you can pull from your stronghold that matter

Just like you are waiting for SS and SE, APC is waiting for Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Borno, Adamawa

Do yourself a favour and compare the number of PVC in the SS+SE with those states I mentioned

You miss the point. Ondo has 1.1m PVCs collected. How come less than 400k voted? that is a waste of 700k votes. Even if the 700k votes will be shared 50-50 it would have added another 350k to APC grand total. By the time SE come out with 99% turn out in anambra with 1.3m PVCs and 80% of that goes to PDP, that is already more than Ogun, Osun and Ondo combined!!

Its not just about how many states APC wins, its about grand total. And Ondo just wasted 700k just like Ogun and Osun. I just pity those counting the number of states APC has won. Except those northern states also record high turn-out, then I am sorry we didn't learn from 2011 experience. The number of states you are able to win does not count if you don't have more vote counts!

And BTW SE and SS has a combined 15m PVCs as the last time I checked with Rivers, Delta and Imo being the highest 3 states

What is wrong with my SW people with this ridiculous 48% voters turn-out? Just wait for SE results and see 99% turn-out. That will be the difference between who wins this election.
I just pray the North have better voters turn-out

podosci:
Nigerians always confuse the term "South"
WEST and the North alone is enough to win an election
Meaning your SS or SE is inconsequential and remember you cannot declare more than the total number of PVC collected in a state or LGA
Bayelsa for example has just 500k eligible voters,
So even if you want to declare, you cant declare more than 500,000 for GEJ

I used to think like this. But as much as I want GMB to win, a quick look at the total pvc collected in SS and SE is 15m with Rivers being the highest 2.1m
15m is a huge number. These guys have no shame. They can claim 100% turn out and 99% of that voted for pdp.

Let's just hope kano/kaduna/katsina also record huge turn out or else

Ebonyi is completely inconsequential. My worry is Rivers (neutralised by the lion Amaeichi) , Delta, Imo and Anambra
Hopefully the result will be favorable

Obiagelli:
Its not so much about winning the SW, it about gathering more votes than 2011, Buhari won less than 8% in the SW in 2011, he is on course for 45/60%

I had this same line of thinking as yours. But then I realised the magic numbers from SS and SE are yet to be released. From the look of things, SE and SS will book the full PVCs collected. That is a massive figure. The only way to counter it is if Kano, Kaduna and katsina don't fully utilise theirs as well. Forget about litigation and asking biometric verification in court. It is not likely to work against a corrupt incumbent that will benefit from the fraud. The only way the block vote from SS and SE will amount to nothing is if NW & NE have near perfect turnout.

pendy79:
You think the magical figure of 99% voted for PDP in 2011 is still feasible with the use of Biometrics.

Every vote cast can and will be link to an authentic owner if challenged.

Have no fear bro, GMB has won this election hands down.

All things being equal, your assumption is right. But nothing is ever equal in Nigeria.
We have already heard Gov. Okorcha tearing a fake result sheet. What will happen to non apc controlled states?
Why have we not heard anything from SS and SE apart from apc states like edo, rivers and imo.
I strongly believe they have a sinister plan.
I'll rather have this election won now rather than subject it to rigors of biometrics verification against an all corrupt incumbent.
I repeat Kano, Kaduna, katsina had better fully utilize their high pvc collection rates.

I want GMB to win but I am sorry this is not the kind of result we need from Kano. With over 4m PVCs, I expect total annihilation of PDP.
I hope and pray Kano fully utilises its 4m PVCs or else, this is disaster! You can expect 99% utilisation from SS and SE and that is over 11m votes!!

The result from Ogun is not that good.
Maybe it has to do with low PVC collection rate.
Their is something sinister waiting to come from SE and SS.
Except Edo and the crisis in Rivers, ow come we have not heard any result from Delta and other SS states. Same goes for SE.

At this rate APC need to make sure the numerical strength it has in Kano, Kaduna, Katsina and Bauchi count. If for any reason they record low turn-out, then I am sorry. I strongly feel SE and SS are just waiting for the results of those state. APC need to come out with the highest turnout ratio in the country from those state if they will have any chance. I hope they learnt from the mistake of 2011

As much as I appreciate this news, I a little bit concerned because of the results from SE/SS. The APC victory margins in SW is not that great. I trust my brothers from the other side that they will padd up their results. I won't be surprised if they record 98% turn-out and 99% vote for PDP.

APC should really be on top of result coming from that axis.

XueRengui:
Ok

Stop the mischief.
This thread is for 2011 elections.
From the look of things, By the grace of GOD, GMB is head for Aso rock come May 29.

Yoruba name: AKINTUNDE

jasmine01s:
Jonathan will win the on going
presidential election is an
example of what figure of
speech...?
laffs its #irony

oxymoron PDPmoron

tosin2013:
Bros use your brain, GMB is already winning kwara, Niger, nassarawa n Benue. Already getting 40-50% in Edo, rivers n ekiti!

In the far north, na landslide

Don't mind the dude. Their 99% block vote in SS and SE is almost inconsequential.
At this rate GEJ has to win outrightly in GMB's base in core north for him to dream of 2nd term.
And that is next to mission impossible

SAI Buhari

thewarrior72:
Iti!, for Buhari to win outrightly, he need to garner 25% from each state, so with what is on ground how is buharii gonna get that in SE & SS

kai na wa for ignoramuses oh.
Just to educate you, the rule is that the winner needs to win by the majority of the votes and at least 25% in 2/3 (two-third) of the states on the country. 2/3 translate to just 24 out of 36 states. With 6 states in each of Buhari's strong support base, it is no brainer that SS and SE votes are almost irrelevant.

NE has 6 states and GMB will not only get 25% of votes, he will surely win by landslide, same goes for NW, SW and at least 3 of NC states. So SS and SE can produce 100% votes for GEJ if they like. It will most likely amount to nothing in the end.