Obailala's Posts
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kingzizzy:Aren't we ashamed of continuously making this shallow statement?.... Is the core north God?... If the rest of Nigeria for once can speak with one voice on restructuring, what makes you thing the core north is so omnipotent?.... Was the core north not woefully defeated in 2011 when the entire south and middlebelt supported GEJ?
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Lanretoye:You add 500mw, one fuse will blow up in one plant taking out 700mw. ![]() |
Bakassi, controlling destinies of men since the days of yore... ![]() |
isnovic:Haha.... when I said beer parlour analysis, I meant 'on the surface' analysis which isn't indepth; I didn't literally mean you were drinking beer. ![]() Accept my apologies for the long epistle I'm about to write; I dont just knoe how to summarise this without killing tje details. You presented several economic indices to prove that the economy of Nigeria was generally better between 2010 and 2015; good and fine. But what you clearly did not notice is that nobody is doubting that; I haven't doubted that in any way. But I only implore you to do just one thing which will give you a deeper understanding of how Nigeria's economy works; in all those indices you presented, kindly zoom into the charts and values and analyse the trend from mid-2014 onwards. Did you notice any change? My point is simple, the whole tumbling of the economy is purely in direct proportion to the price of oil. Nigeria's economy is dangerously tied to oil. A boom in oil sales brings about a booming economy and vice versa. 1. GDP: Of course we are in a recession and recession means negative growth, i.e. the GDP dropping. But the drop in our GDP growth rate started from mid-2014 (when oil began crashing) and it nosedived progressively until 1Q 2016 when it officially crossed the zero line (recession). I dont need to remind you it was still GEJ and the world class economists that were incharge of the economy between mid-2014 and May-2015. We were already heading to recession during handover and it would have amounted to a wild dream if you expected buhari to perform a miracle to reversethe gdp nosedive even when the factors which led to it (oil price) got much worse (oil was still over $60 when GEJ left and it dropped progressively to $28 in 2016). www.nairaland.com/attachments/5411323_gdp_gifa9b921e6218c89d27c14de9cfcfe7d21 2. External debt: You apparently didnt read my previous analogy on debt and borrowing. A nation in recession needs massive capital expenditure to pull itself out, hence the current spate of borrowings. While GEJ enjoyed high oil income, my earlier point was that his govt had absolutely no need to borrow, but they did. With govt revenue down by over 60% due to oil price drop and large cuts in oil production volumes (militancy), it became imperative that the govt borrowed to susyain capital expenditure because that is the only way to quickly pull a country out of recession. 3. Inflation Rate: Once again, there's no basis of comparison here. Nigeria is a nation which is pathetically dependent on imports. We do not have power for industrialisation and we import just about everything from the food we eat to raw materials to tooth pick and to almost all the energy (fuel) we use. To facilitate this unbelievable import dependence, massive amounts of forex is needed to meet our daily needs. Now 93% of Nigeria's forex comes from oil sales, but oil price crash coupled with oil production slash meant we had over 60% less supply of forex to Nigeria. Basic economic principles of demand and supply states that when the demand for a product is constant but the supply has drastically reduced, the price of the little available would go up; hence dollar price jumped from N160 to N400 to even N520. An importer of rice who used N160 to buy $1 to import his rice now uses almost N400 to buy the same dollars. Implication is that he would increase the price of his rice; hence rice price jumped from N7000 to N20,000+. Similarly, a purewater producer imports the polythene used to package his pure water. With dollar price significantly up, he increases pure water price from N5 to N10 to even N20. All of these is inflation, cost push inflation; and I hope you now see the link it has with oil price. 4. FDI: Once again, kindly go back and check the chart you posted, focus on the trend from mid-2014 and you cant tell me you dont see the smooth decline. Mid-2014 is when global oil prices started crashing. Before I go to invest my millions or billions in any climate, I would have done a proper background check to understand how that economy works. These foreign investors aren't dummies you know? They definitely understand how pathetically dependent Nigeria's economy is on oil and with oil prices dropping massively, even the dumbest investor could spot it from a distance that Nigeria was heading for a wild storm; hence they started holding back. Even the local street early morning akara seller wouldnt want to take her wares to a poor or credit unworthy neighbourhood. "Money go, woman go"... That's exactly how foreign investors (especially portfolio investors) are; they are fair weather friends. Between 2010 to 2014, Nigeria's economy was filled with money so they stormed Nigeria like flies gathering around shit. We can all see what happened when they started even just suspecting that the money wouod go. Foreign companies like airlines started leaving a bit late, those who didnt leave had their profits locked up in Nigeria cos there wasnt enough dollars in the CBN reserves to give to them (that's a foreign investor's nightmare, hence why most ran away earlier). Thank God you can clearly see from your own charts that everything started turning downwards from mid-2014 when oil prices started dropping; that was close to a year ahead of Buhari stepping in. Of course the factor (oil) which led to the downturn in every economic index still persisted and even got much worse after buhari took over. So I wonder the kind of miracle you expected to happen; even Okonjo Iweala gave advanxed warning of an impending and that was in Dec 2014 when oil was even still at $75. A stitch in time saves nine, we didnt put in right stitches in time, when the tear was already progressing, you choose to blame the new tailor (buhari) for being unable to perform some sort of magic to stop an already propagating fracture?... In summary, my point is that it is totally baseless to make any judgement on the economy of today by comparing it with when oil was booming above $100, absolutely pointless comparison because what we face today is the repercussion of decades of stupid reliance on a single volatile priced commodity. |
isnovic:Nigeria is an import dependent nation which needs forex to survive; we get 93% of our forex from oil so do the maths. When forex supply is high, Nigeria can afford to comfortably maintain dollars at N150. But when forex supply starts dwindling, there is no magic that can make it maintain that exchange rate. https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/embed.png?s=nigeriaforexcres&v=201706061931v&d1=20140708&d2=20150608&h=300&w=600 That's a chart showing how Nigeria's foreign reserves nosedived between Aug-2014 and May-2015 (start of the oil price drop). CBN was struggling to maintain the value of the Naira hence reserves kept dropping sharply, but even with that drop ($39bn to $29bn), the Naira still crashed from N150/N160 to N220by May 29th 2015. That is notwithstanding that oil still sold above $60 at the time. I dont need to remind you that oil kept falling till it got to $28. Now from the chart you see above, I suppose you should now understand why the new govt was forced to start forex restrictions (to protect Nigeria from degenerating to Venezuela). ANd of course restricting release of forx led to a scarcity in the market which in turn led to skyrocketing prices of dollars in the blackmarket. SO if you think it is just the leadership of the current admin that's responsible for the current exchange rate regime, then you obviously have no idea how the exchange rate of a country works. Stop relying on just beer parlour political analysis explanations. |
isnovic:Yes you are right, this isn't the first time we're having a drop in oil price, but this very crash is not only significant, it has also lasted a very long time (almost 3 years) and Nigeria had virtually nothing in savings to counter it. The last time there was a major drop in oil prices was in 2008 during the global crisis and it lasted only 6 months. At that time, the CBN pumped $20 billion (mainly saved by OBJ) into the economy and that is exactly what it cost to save Nigeria from that crisis. Now you claim APC stopped GEJ's govt from saving?... That's a very lame excuse given by PDP and GEJ goons, a very poor attempt at playing the blame game. OBJ was taken to court to share ECA, he refused. Yaradua likewise was taken to court, but he refused to budge. GEJ was threatened too and he not only shared the money, he also didnt bother saving the 52% which was the FG's share; oh yes, states own only 48% of the funds and they intensified their demand for it when they discovered that the FG was already illegally dipping it's hands into the ECA funds. And if GEJ actually had evven the remotest intention to save, he still controlled the bulk 52% of the funds, what stopped the FG from saving that?.... Meanwhile claiming that it was APC who masterminded the agitation of the governors is laughable, PDP made up up to 25/36 of the state governors at the time; you mean to tell me only Amaechi was talking and all other 35 governors were doing what exactly? Petrol prices was increased because he saw into the future, the save Nigeria group was born.Every Nigerian president saw that same future and every single leader who increased fuel prices was opposed by all Nigerians. Once again it is laughable to play selective amnesia by claiming it was just Save Nigeria Group or APC that opposed fuel price increase. I opposed it and I'm sure you did too (if you can be honest with yourself). Sometimes it depends on how a case is presented to Nigerians; in 2010, fuel subsidy bill was N600bn, but in 2011, it miraculously skyrocketed to N2.13Trillion. And in order to checkmate this cruel monumental devilish thievery by the cabal, the FG told us the only thing they could do was remove fuel subsidy. Investigations by hte Ribadu panel revealed $6.8bn was the actual cost of that scam in 2011 alone, and instead of looking for how to go after that fund, FG insulted Nigerians by saying all it could do was to punish Nigerians (remove subsidy) in order to get at the cabals. ANd with that watery excuse, you really think SNG and APC were the only ones protesting? He has been fought at every turn to make a difference.Every regime faces similar myriad of problems, OBJ had his fare share including militants kidnapping and blowing up pipelines. That was even part of why he made GEJ his successor. Buhari's govt similarly faced the worst kind of militant attacks and the same Bokoharam too. ANd the militant attacks bringing Nigeria's oil production down by more than 50% in 2016, coupled with more than 60% drop in oil prices, dont you think that alone is responsible for the rotten state of the economy presently?.. Militant attacks only stopped recently, coupled with oil price hitting steady $50, and now the reserves has been reloaded to ~$30bn, enabling CBN to make forex disbursements weekly. I'm sure you can already see the effects on the currency (N520 to N362 today) in just few months?... MEanwhile remember, while BH attack may have meant more funding for defence, it didnt affect the revenue stream of the country (oil sales) at all. Check your debt profile now and tell me if this is any way to run an economy.A country in recession needs to spend a lot of money to get out of recession, that's basic economics. Now let's not settle for a myopic analysis, I would give a simple analogy. Mr A runs a home with N100k salary yearly. The money is barely enough due to a variety of home needs and after 5 years, he has accrued a debt of N40k. Mr B steps in to run the same home but this time, income has been slashed to N40k yearly. He struggles greatly to feed and after just 2 years, he incurs a debt of N60k. Between Mr A and B, who do you honestly think really had a genuine reason to borrow? and who has relatively borrowed more? |
Exclusive Video have just emerged of robbery operation which took place at Zenith Bank, Wetheral road branch Owerri sometime in February. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thvCc8c6j_8 See old thread below: https://www.nairaland.com/3644495/robbers-attack-zenith-bank-owerri No fewer than three people have been killed and several others wounded including a police officer, after unknown gunmen suspected to be armed robbers attacked a Zenith bank branch in Owerri, the Imo state capital.Latest gist on the investigations says the Nigeria police have since arrested the robbers. After six weeks of investigation, ring leader – Justice Ogbenna, aka JJ, and getaway driver Okechukwu Onwuamaegbu– were arrested in Aba, Abia State by operatives of the Imo State Police Command during activities marking to mark JJ’s father’s burial.@Mynd44, Lalasticlala; I mistakenly posted this on the wrong section, kindly do the needful. |
isnovic:There's a range of price fluctuation which is permissible, but there's also a degree of fluctuation which is capable of capsizing an entire ship if the people in-charge of the ship hadn't put in place, necessary counter measures to absorb the shocks. Unfortunately Nigeria had absolutely zero counter-measures in place to absorb the oil shock, hence we've found ourselves in this INEVITABLE situation... Oh yes, oil price is now almost twice what it was as at Jan/Feb last year ($28), but it's still well below and outside the permissible range which could have ensured stability in Nigeria's economy. If you think the current guys struggling to manage the situation are extremely stupid and incompetent, may I remind you that the entire ship started capsizing even when we still had renown economic experts like NOI steering the economy. That the effect of the crash hit the common man on the streets after they had left power, that does not mean the crisis started after they had left. Remember as at the time they handed over, oil still sold averagely above $60. Between Nov 2014 - May 2015, the foreign reserves were emptied rapidly ($38.5bn to $28.6bn) to support the value of the Naira, but Naira still fell from N160-N220 nevertheless. Obviously, since the reserves got to a dangerously low level, those disbursements couldn't be sustained, so the Naira began the steep decline, and it was only a matter of time before the common man felt the inflationary effects. Regarding the recession, from mid-2014 to 2Q 2015, GDP growth rate fell progressively from over 6% to 2.3%; of course it kept falling after the new government took over but many people myopically only see when it fell below zero (official recession) under the new govt. I wouldn't even want to talk of the cash crunch which pushed the FG under the renown powerful economists to start borrowing in Feb 2015 to offset salaries and the fact that oil importers were owed for over 9 months before the new govt came in. In summary, if you think the current oil price isn't bad enough to warrant the slowness in the economy, then you probably don't understand how dangerously dependent your country's economy is on oil. And mind you, every single country dependent on oil globally is facing similar situations except the ones who had put substantial measures in place to counter the shock, e.g. Saudi Arabia with a population of 30 million had $750billion in its reserves (more than enough right?), but they've still had to increase pump price of fuel by up to 100% in the last 2 years coupled with other belt-tightening measures which their citizens are groaning over. |
preselect:Sharrap there enwe! You mock apc for creating and using a digital image to illustrate a proposed project. But the pdp you adore didnt just do same, they actually STOLE the digital image they used from a Cameroonian website but your watery defense is that pdp is out of power?.... sharrap and gerrarrahia! |
gartamanta:What exactly is preventing our leaders from making good use of the 20 Naira accruing to the SE today?.... And what miracle can possibly make these leaders change overnight when the name is changed to Biafra? |
No other time could have been better to resurrect this 2014 video and place it on the front page as fresh news. But then, the confident sense of entitlement and smooth emphasis with which the 'learned' mallam makes the provocating statement is sickening. This is the exact sort of nonsense they feed their illiterate irate youths everyday. Restructuring of this nation is definitely around the corner; the north is in trouble and the north is definitely the trouble. |
DarkHenrie:Of course we should strive to do things differently, in a more civilized way. But just take a look around you, do you think the contraption called Nigeria (and by extension Africa) has the kind of systemic structures to permit a civil separation?..... In my previous post, I was only responding to a dude who claimed that those mentioning the word 'war' were 'foolishly threatening' war against agitators. I was only clarifying that those warning of war weren't necessarily foolish or hostile, but were rather just highlighting a high possibility considering Nigeria's peculiar arrangement. |
Fx55:Like I said before, everyone knows the hausas dont like igbos. But only insecure weaklings feel they have to love and be loved back before they can co-exist/do business with anyone. Only a foolish Igbo man would go living in the north without caution thinking he is loved or sticking out his neck to be slashed. And guess what?... The SE answering a different country name will not stop Igbos from living in the north, neither will it quell the animosity the average northerner has for Igbos (it will rather even increase the animosity). So you preaching about one-nigeria or two-nigeria is watery nonsense which doesnt solve anything. |
Abeg who be Sowore jazzman?... Data protection breach at its worst... Dino would be scared of making calls these days ![]() |
Fx55:Whoever said you ought to LOVE someone and the person ought to LOVE you back for you to do business/co-exist with the person?... Only small minds/insecure folks think that way bro.. ![]() Who doesnt know hausas hate Igbos? |
Evablizin:And you think these same herdsmen weren't doing these things even before apc was formed? |
This cocain sniffer again, giving warm meal to his new found multitude of loser admirers. Osinbajo did not attend an ECOWAS meeting and because Netanyahu attended the meeting, Osinbajo's Christianity is now being questioned. Morons everywhere you go! |
Which kind of bunkum captured this video?... The dude just left everyone in suspense, videoing the ground instead of fight. Then most painful is, after the fall, least thing expected was for him to give us an idea of the height of the bridge to assess the damage. But mumu dude kept videoing the ground. ![]() |
Naija sef ![]() |
Bet why? |
pazienza:Please do... |
Fx55:Nope, God has opened my eyes to see beyond the part you and many others see. I have completely deleted the part of my mind which keeps reminding me to feel paranoid cos I know that feeling only destroys my ability to properly strategise and achieve things. There was a time I saw things from your view, but I now view things beyond that level cos I have since dug my head up from that sand and advise you to do same. I watched the video, the full video when the motion was raised and when it was shouted down, and also the interview of the angry rep afterwards. You claim the bill was thrown out because they hate Igbos. But spend a second and think about it (of course without the 'they hate Igbos' mindset); can you give me one single reason why the northern or SW or even the SS reps should have supported the motion?.... Cos from my own understanding of politics and politicians worldwide, they only go for things they feel would benefit either their people, or at least their personal pockets. Recently a Lagos senator Remi Tinubu raised a somewhat similar motion for Lagos to be given a 'special status' (whatever that means) given its national coverage and its population. The bill was similarly shouted down. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lagos senators and representatives are now doing behind the scenes lobbying/bribing and striking deals with legislators from other states/zones (including even Igbo legislators) in preparation for the next time they would present that bill. You say it has nothing to do with unity or alliances?... Fa fa fa foul! and this is exactly where millions of Igbos keep missing it, thinking we can survive and even prosper as a disunited island. The only reason a similar bill like that can be successful for the north is because (1) The 3 northern zones are wonderfully united and (2) The north, after it agrees with itself, will easily stretch out a hand of fellowship to the SW (and to even some Igbo reps), offering one incentive or the other (i.e. BUILDING BRIDGES), and the SW would simply support the idea because it believes it can gain something from the deal. A lot of Igbos need to wake up from this 'they hate us and want to punish us' mentality which keeps tying us down from scheming like our mates are doing; everyone else out there is simply hustling for themselves, no one likes/loves anyone and no one owes anyone else anything. |
Fx55:'Igbo enweghi eze!' is a statement we proudly recite, but the fact is that it isn't necessarily a virtue. In fact, this very ideology is the reason why the Igbo nation has been unable to 'play the game' the way its mates (other big tribes) do. It's simple explains why ndigbo have been unable to unite to work towards any common good and this is one big factor which has deprived us of our rightful share in the national cake for decades. Using the example of the SEDC, of course the SW and the north (and even possibly the SS) shouted it down because obviously, they don't think it would benefit them in anyway (not necessarily because they want to punish Igbos). Scratch my back and I scratch yours cos there are no brothers in the jungle and nothing goes for nothing; this is the most basic ideology which anyone involved in politics globally knows. Before NEDC motion was raised, you can bet the individual who originated it must have extensively discussed it with his colleagues across all the northern zones and even some southern zones. In fact, by virtue of the default UNITY and understanding the different northern zones have, the originator of that motion may not have even needed to discuss it first with his colleagues. But we all know the south hasn't got that sort of synergy at all. Now a few questions which bug my mind, did the originator of the SEDC discuss the bill with fellow SE reps before raising it in the house?... Did the SE caucus discuss the proposed bill with even the SS reps?... Was any single hand of fellowship extended to SW reps or even sympathetic north central reps before the bill was brought on the floor?... If at all it was discussed with non-SE reps, were offers of 'potential mutual benefit' made to the non-SE reps for them to support the idea (sometimes this could even involve outright cash inducements)?... Remember nothing goes for nothing in the jungle. In fact, on the day the motion was raised on the floor, did we even have up to 30% of the total number of SE reps in attendance?.. I doubt this from the number seen in that video... These are the sort of questions which bug my mind when I think of the failure of the bill, not the usual "they are ganging up against us" attitude. Are we playing the right politics the Nigerian way? I'm not a person to engage in endless self pity or dwell in endless paranoia believing that everyone else is scheming one thing or the other against me; I am totally not configured to just blame blame blame everyone else for my problems. I just believe everyone else is in a jungle to hustle for themselves and their people and they owe no one else anything. That's exactly what the other big tribes have been doing for themselves and their people and the Igbos need to try and do the same, play the same game our mates are playing, scheme, manipulate, blackmail and most importantly, create mutually beneficial alliances; that is exactly what politics is. Cos as they say, "na cooperation na him make rice full pot," no man can succeed as an island. |
dodelight:Of course I cant deny that I have a bias for apc because I see them as my baby; I supported apc to power so by default, it would be difficult for me to expunge my sympathy for them, especially when I see how people who have a sympathy for pdp still stand by their pdp 100% even in exposed cases of their glaring fvckups.. And yes, I agree they lack direction, but I genuinely also believe their lack of direction isn't worse than that of the recently departed PDP that had a much better economic climate but weren't able to do anything sustainable with it. I absolutely believe a buhari would have done better in terms of sustainable capital infrastructural development if he had the same resource opportunities enjoyed by the recently departed govt. |
mrvitalis:Who sent T.A Orji to the senate?... According to the ipob creed, it is the Yorubas and Hausas that sent T.A Orji to the senate. You must admit it is very very frustrating arguing with person's who reason like this; and the most frustrating part is that you keep wondering why sensible Ignos are not speaking up. |
Fx55:Yeah its sad, but the real issue that bothers the mind is, what were the SE caucus of the NASS, the SE governors forum, ohaneze etc doing when that decision was taken?.... It's never too late though. |
dodelight:Haba, we were talking about capital development, what brings rule of law into this? Anyway, regarding Jonathan, he did his best to transform Nigeria as he deemed fit and I absolutely dont hate him. I just see him as another typical example of the mediocre leadership which Africa is known for; his own mediocrity was on a high level though because I had too much expectations from him and I believe that unlike every other leader, he enjoyed reasonably higher revenue.. And by the way, this is not me hailing the present govt, cos I also see them as a disappointment. But I certainly hate it when people keep directly comparing performance of the last guys (5 yrs) to the current guys (2yrs) especially as they choose to blatantly ignore the differences in the times (i.e. the economic status, sharp difference in income level etc). |
dodelight:Nigeria is currently in recession and the current income is just a tiny fraction of what was obtainable before. Nigeria is presently adjusting to that and the ficis now is to pull out of the recession. There's no basis for comparing 100 with 40. |
dodelight:Someone starts hundreds of projects and hardly finishes any single one; you hail him. His successor comes in, refuses to start fresh projects, but rather chooses to complete the plethora of uncompleted projects littering the landscape. And you criticise him? The wastage talked about obviously wasn't the projects. |
dodelight:Mr A received N100, swallowed N90 and worked with N10. Mr B received N40, and swallowed the entire N40. ![]() |
seunmsg:It's indeed very sad. These things are very clear to all, very powerful interests are working night and day to ensure the refineries never work in Nigeria. Same with the power sector, I just wonder how these devils sleep at night. Kachikwu would be really frustrated, if he pushes on, he may even be eliminated. |
Still can't understand why the 2nd Nuger bridge had to be concessioned; in otherwords, Igbos are being made to pay for the bridge. That has got to be the best example of cheating of the SE. |
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