₦airaland Forum

OBI Kerenke!

Tinubu will eliminate corruption

Hopium:
Nice one!

What's happening today at Sokoto and Kano is very clear as to what to expect in the election. 25th no far again, we shall see.

Lol... you think those paid people who attend those rallies and the ones who attend in hope of being paid, will vote the candidate dancing in those rallies? Are you aware its exactly the same set of people who attend Tinubu rallies that also attend Atiku rallies?

Hopium:
Let's see what you've got.

Your projection is amusingly flawed beyond imagination. You even projected ATIKU to win Rivers?

See a more likely scenario below. Anyone expecting northerners to leave their own and vote Tinubu is on a very long thing; even Buhari will be voting ATIKU!

#FearNorth

Hopium:
No need for insult

If you think I'm off the mark, tell me the states you think I got wrong or create your projected view using any online tool. Post your result as reply and let's deliberate.

I used this tool: https://paintmaps.com/map-charts/301/Nigeria-map-chart

Lol... You must be a BATified dreamer!

07kjb:
Run away from this inverter people,it can't even carry FAN AND TELEVISION

What kind of inverter did you buy tbat cant power ur fan?

Mynd44:
A 5 K.V.A inverter plugged to 2 12V, 200Amps batteries powered by 8 320watts solar panels and you won't ask this question again.

Even petrol for generator wont matter

So my powe supply is permanent

How long do your batteries last for before they get weak?... I mean their lifespan before you start thinking of replacement; 2 yrs, 3yrs, 4yrs?

The entire management and staff of the BENIN DISCO need to be tied and flogged mercilessly till they bleed.... Never seen such a useless and inefficient entity before. Like why do you bother to exist if your efficiency is less that 3% ?

In most parts of Warri, electricity barely exists; if you get up to 7 hours cumulative power in a whole week, you would be thanking your God that it was a good week. This has been the case for the last 4-5 years and this is supposed to be a city, not some rural area... The situation just leaves one wondering whether its humans or animals that manage the Benin DISCO. And of course, no one ever gets the prepaid meters in this part of the country.

Megabig:
I’ve been meaning to ask, where is Sowore and his campaign?

I feel duped that I’ve contributed to his campaign at one point and there is nothing to show for it.

Is it that he comes up every 4 years, seek funds, chew our money and then disappears?

What should be done to people like this?

Sowore is good but to be honest, he's more of a no-nonsense activist than a leader. While Sowore may be good, the truth is that that's there's an equally good and far more popular candidate with administrative experience and a verifiable track record of achievements, who is many times more likely to win a general election - Many people whould rather go with the candidate who has better chances at winning.

The principles and ideologies of Sowore are very similar to those of OBI; both men have ideologies which sharply differ from the standard Nigerian political ideology. The odds arent just in Sowore's favour for now; the most I would have expected of him at this crucial time is to directly/indirectly support OBI in winning the coming election (or at least just remain neutral instead of joining hte 'establishment' to attack OBI). It would be great to actually see both men working together to rid our country of the kleptomaniac lootocrats occupyibg the corridors of power.

Irrelevant jokers doing too much these days to sustain their cashflow!

Bede2u:
First of all I want to state that voting Peter Obi has nothing to do with tribe but taking back Nigeria from the establishment.

Having said that, if Peter Obi wins the South south as most polls project, then it means that despite the nairaland noise from the 'we the south south' miscreants here, the Niger Delta ordinary folks are aligned with the Igbos.

This would be the second time an Igbo man will be a strong contender together with a yoruba man. They will have the choice for the second time of choosing between WaZoBia. If they choose Bia then the yorubas will now know that as far as the southern region is concerned in the 21st century, they are the ones who need to align with the others. Because the other two regions are infact united.

The first time in 1979 when WaZoBia was on the Ballot, the Niger Delta chose Zo. They voted Shagari. I believe they may now know better (not saying that zik was better than shagari though) about southern alliance. A picture of the 1979 election results is also attached

This election isn't about tribe for so many people; the SS aligning with OBI has absolutely nothing to do with his tribe.

blowjohn:
Attack the message, not the messenger

WHat yeye message?

The small he-goat (omokri) apparently dropped another anti-OBI tweet today. Dude has drowned himself in poo...

So this omokri (small he-goat) still get mouth to talk?

senatordave1:
You yourself knows obi won't win.highest he can do is to get to a runoff

Ahaa! So a runoff is possible?

Should have known you were just another 'wishful thinker' who's peeing on himself over OBI's divine progress in the last 8 months.

Started from:
"OBI only has 4 online supporters operating from a tiny room"
to
"OBI can't win a single local govt, he has no structure"
to
"OBI can only win south eastern states"

Now its
"The highest OBI can do is drag the election to a run-off"

Whoever said progress was a slow process definitely wasnt talking about OBI. The God of the suffering, molested, neglected and abused Nigerians has finally decided to show His might hand.

Imagine presidential candidates insulting Nigerians that they're TOO BIG to attend interviews or speak to anyone except on their terms. Such despicable arrogance fuelled by their massive stash of stolen public funds. Cant even imagine what becomes of Nigeria if such arrogance wins the election. God forbid!

senatordave1:
A lot of employed people attend such rallies.do you realize some obi supporters even attend tinubu rallies yet cannot attend obi own? No matter how you see it,obi should pull crowd in his region he isnt

What kind of gainfully employed person leaves their jobs to go attend political rallies on a Tuesday afternoon?

You just said OBI supporters attend Tinubu's rally but not OBI's own; doesnt that already prove my point that those useless rallies are attended mainly by paid actors?

So because an OBI supporter attends Tinubu's rally, does that automatically make them not to vote OBI on election day?... Keep deveivimg yourself!

senatordave1:
Rallies are important whether you like it or not.do you realize that obi supporters were pulling crowds before campaigns started yet we hardly see these turnout? You use it to gauge a candidate's strength.a popular candidate usually attracts crowds.if I can accept money and attend to rallies of atiku that I hate,nothing will stop me from going for tinubu own...in 2019 in calabar,when atiku came a lot of people went to the stadium to see atiku yet in 2023,those people who are now with obi refused to go.obi is overhyped my friend

Lol... so you think because people arent falling over themselves to attend OBI rallies, it means his support is dwindling? What a JOKE!

For one, I'm not jobless and would never bother attending any of those useless campaign rallies where politicians do nothing but dance and say rubbish; I value my time so much and wouldnt squander it on such frivolities. In my opinion, people who attend such campaign rallies are mainly paid actors or just jobless onlookers... But that notwithstanding, that I wont attend rallies doesnt mean I dont have a candidate I support.

senatordave1:
Buhari recorded mass rallies up north in 2015.it shows that people are anxious and enthusiastic about his rulership

That I dont attend a rally organised on Tuesday, or even on Saturday, that doesn't mean I wouldn't go out and vote on election day.

Rallies are important for awareness; they also help encourage 'faithless' voters that the candidate indeed has a chance of winning. But just like myself, I know hundreds of other willing voters who wouldnt bother going out for those street carnivals.

senatordave1:
If there will be mass turnout,you will see the signs.people will come out massively for his rallies in se ss but still,he records low turnout.

Rallies? What exactly is the relevance of rallies to so many people?

00FFT00:
There are over 1.5 million Igbos in Kano state alone. And, most northern Christians, south and north central ethnicities in Kano, including Yorubas, are supporting Peter Obi.

Igbos alone 1.5 million? How many people do we then have in the entire state? That number get as e be!

Sannisege:
Even if you conduct the election 10 times, Obi cannot win

FarahAideed:
He can't even win on 7th ballot

Wishful thinkers!

wegevv:
From all I've seen it is tough but POssible.

A run-off would be far from a disaster especially if he wins the popular vote on the first ballot.

It's very hard to gauge how the other parties and even the general population would react to that. There could be a sentiment that he deserves it, even in unexpected regions

lovewins:
I really do think Obi should revisit the South East and the South South states again. The strategy shouldn't just be getting 25% in 24 states (which isn't very likely) it should also include ensuring the opposition do not get the required 25% in states that should traditionally be Obi's stronghold.

It will be disappointing if any of Atiku gets 25% in any of the south eastern states. Efforts should also be intensified to ensure Obi gains more ground in the south especially in states like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Even if Obi doesn't win ok first ballot, efforts should be made to ensure he makes second ballot (only the top 2 candidates will qualify). The sheer possiblity of Peter Obi making it to the last round will further inspire more people to come out enmass to vote. It will make people realize their votes count.

I believe Obi should make 25% in Ogun and Nasarawa and Taraba. Ogun has major cities like Abeokuta, Ota, Ijebu with a significant young and literate voting population who should swing Obi. Major Abuja folks living in Nasarawa with the significant Christian population should be enough to get him 25%. Taraba is majority Christian, Obi should also hit 25% here.

I worry more about the South East and South South. Of course he will get the 25% here, but should the opposition gain significant inroad here, it's game over.

From current projections, if OBI doesn't win on first ballot, it's almost certainly game-over!

The key reason OBI has a high chance today is because the votes in the north are shared by the other 3 top contenders. If there's a run-off, northern votes would no longer be shared.

If the run-off is between OBI and Tinubu, you'd agree with me that whilst the majority of the northern PDP voters may not necessarily like Tinubu, most would gravitate towards a Tinubu over an OBI (largely due to tribal / religious sentiments).

Similarly, if the run-off is between OBI and Atiku, with the distasteful intertribal aggression between the SE and SW, would OBI really be able to inherit Tinubu's south western votes? Would current APC supporters in the SW pick an OBI over an Atiku in a run-off?

However the case goes, I don't think a run-off will favour OBI. Whilst its important that OBI consolidates his votes in his strongholds, it's also imperative that he wins the election on first ballot.

RenaissanceGuy:
I don't think Obi will win. The election is strictly between Tinubu and Atiku. Sadly.

Lol... saying the election is between Tinubu and Atiku just gives you away. Wake up and smell the coffee bro - What you have there is called 'wishful thinking'!!!

In an election with 4 top contenders, with OBI already projected to grab up to 14 (out of 36) states + FCT, OBI is a major force to contend with.

RenaissanceGuy:
That Obi has 25% in even 36 states doesn't mean he also has the highest votes. Another party could have the highest votes and therefore the winner.

Yeah of course a candidate can win 25% in all 36 states but still not have the highest number of votes, but that isnt the case for OBI in the coming elections.

With the way things stand now, as long as none of the other 3 top contenders gives up and pulls out of the race before the 25th of February, OBI is already projected to have the highest number of votes with just the first 14 states I listed there.

Waterysperm:
Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Gombe will give him 25%. I will stake 50k with anyone that disagrees with my opinion.

Hmmm .. I really hope so... I even trust Gombe more than the other 3 central states you mentioned.

BeardedmeatR:
Obi can pull 25% in Kano and Gombe states. He is just one step closer to victory.

I'm not really sure of the mix in Gombe, but 25% from Kano?

LP votes from Kano would most likely be ethnic; i.e. from Igbos living in Kano. Can this really make up to 25% of votes in Kano?

SmartPolician:
If Obi doesn't win on the first ballot, a runoff will be hard for him to win because the other two major candidates are more popular than him in the north.

I want to see Nigeria's presidential election end in a runoff someday. I want to have a first-hand experience.

A runoff would be a disaster for OBI cos the larger percentage of PDP/APC supporters are people who actually dislike OBI (either for his tribe or just for his audacity to challenge the system). In a runoff, these people would gladly vote 'anything but OBI'.

yarimo:
Obi that is not even sure of Anambra state

No time for JOKERS here abeg!

From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

Firstly, this thread is strictly for OBIDIENTS; but BATists and ATIKUlators are welcome to pour in their bad energy (it's a free world).

The presidential election is in a few weeks and from my personal analysis, while it's looking bright that the LP may win the highest number of votes nationwide, it doesn't seem like it can pull 25% of votes in 24 states (I may be wrong).

A run-off would be a disaster for the OBIDIENT movement cos I foresee supporters of PDAPC (two parties with similar lootocratic ideologies) teaming up to punish OBI in a run-off.

So the big questions are:

1. Can OBI pull 25% of votes in up to 24 states?
2. What states can OBI pull 25% of votes?
3. What additional states can more work be done to tilt the scale?

LP still has a lot of work to be done. At all cost, the election should never be allowed to enter into run-offs. So far, while it may seem like the LP may win the highest number of votes nationwide, it doesn't seem like they can pull 25% of votes in 24 states.

If the election goes into runoffs, I foresee supporters of PDAPC (two parties with similar lootocratic ideologies) teaming up to punish OBI.

omonnakoda:
I cannot think of a better word for you than
BOMBASTIC

Lol... Which one be "bombastic" again?