₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
Which one we dey before?
This is expected to happen with the incessant borrowing and no plan to pay back nah.
Which revenue is the country generating when FG doesn't have time for the sectors except oil, and the said oyel, na to spend , nothing like development.......I weak the day I read that NNPC is spending more than the revenue being generated and all that......
As dem don milk NNPC dry, dey wan come list the can for NGX..
Na God go help us for this corntree o.

It could get worse o my sister.
FG no try at all.....

ositadima1:
I clearly mentioned stock price or did I not? While one is up 49% the other is 102%, why?



So, it was battered for no reason?

Someone famous once said that in the long term d stock market is similar to a voting machine.

I think you are more of a TA person.
It could get complicated sometimes when looking at a stock from TA and FA angles at the same time..

RabbiDoracle:
In my opinion, this will not have effect on NSE except when the global depression hits the oil producers and cause oil prices to collapse.

Banks will breakout rapidly and catch many unawares.

As for US stocks and Indexes, they still have a long way to fall. Portfolios will be blown over there and people will understand that everything that rises so rapidly must fall later.

Commodities like oil still have further rise to make. And that will be aggressive. This fall in oil is a move to prepare for the next leg higher. My $220 forecast for Brent still stands.

At a point, dollar will have severe devaluation. Since Fed has continued to tighten and raise rates to make dollar stronger and weaken other EM currencies, China will continue to tighten supply to ensure that they don't get cheaper goods with their strong dollar. That way, the little goods avaible in the West will have severe price increases as we see now. Higher prices, higher energy cost, higher interest rates on the those with loans and squeeze on available income will soon lead to protest in the West as cost of living crisis bites.

Fed strengthens the dollar hoping that they get cheaper goods from producers and hoping that this attracts funds into the US, but the reverse could happen where instead an outflow of funds from the West and you get no goods at all from China (due to their frequent lockdowns). That way all the money printed will remain with the West with no one wanting it.

Many countries in EMs and FMs will feel the bite.... Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Ghana, Pakistan etc. Soon the developed ones (weaker ones in EU) will also start to crumble. And their's could be worst.

My major concern is the oil price.
If oil price stays up, Nigeria might not feel the heat much but if price crumblies the effect will be very severe.

leparj:
They said Telecommunications products.

If it is something you cannot do yourself, run......

leparj:
Sorry to digress from stocks.
Who knows or has any experience about Wallet Shop Virgin Platform?
A friend was telling me I cud put 1m or 0.5m there and get paid 10k n 5k respectively weekly as trading profit.
And at the end of the duration, my capital is still mine.
How genuine is it?
Hope it is not a ponzi scheme.
Anyone that knows shd kindly help so I can be guided.
Thanks.

What are they trading?
Hope it is not forex or oil

DeRuggedProf:
Wetin you buy?

Uba

DeRuggedProf:
Why do people prefer to buy high?
Now, you have very good prices, no one is interested...
When it rises, people will pursue the buses.
Please anyone who has bought today should indicate. Don't come tomorrow saying you bought yesterday...

Lol.
I bought today o.

DeRuggedProf:
This happens when you are investing against solid assets, NOT when you are playing a computer game of matching present numbers with previous numbers...
This one is called Virtual reality...

Yea, I agree with you.
However some are completely out of it and waiting for btc at 15000 to 13000 range.

RabbiDoracle:
Can you type cryptos without first writing "CRY" ?

Dem go cry well today.

Those I pity are Nairaland stock veterans like Bigjay01 that sold stocks just to adventure into "cry"ing business.

I think some already saw this coming.
It is all about playing the game With advanced plan for eventualities.
The lower it goes the better for some people.

RabbiDoracle:
GTB is efficient and that has not changed.

Yes, it is below the cloud but there are things to look out for. I'm not a trend follower. I'm an inflection point finder. The money is made here if gotten correctly or lost here if missed.

Once GTB breaks below 21.50 and closes the month at or below this level, the next level will be a slide to N19.80. However it needs to rise to break N31 to have a sustained upward trend.

For 2 months now, it has touched the 21+ line (at 21.45 and 21.65). This is a message.

If there is a reversal, the reversal is usually violent to the upside.

Fundamentally GTB has been loosing it for some time now.......I think they are the only one among the first tier banks that reported a reduction in profit for the last financial year.

yMcy56:
Boss, the good thing is that the shedding didn't continue o.

To some people, the good thing is for the shedding to continue..

yMcy56:
Mega welcome.
Whatever, I'm sha happy that market stabilize.
Yesterday's dumping was somehow scary, must not continue like that. E no easy to dey lose money.

Besides, I think banking stocks aren't expensive. They didn't even partake in the recent bull, why will they still be shedding again? Not fair on people's investment nah.

Also, if interest rate goes up, wouldn't banks be a beneficiary?

Do you really call that dumping?
I am not sure any bank lost maximum 10%

Mpeace:
Yes, we pray they the give a special dividend wen their corporate announcement is out. But the result shows they are close to catching up with gtco and zenith.

FBN still has a long way to go.
Profit was boosted by recovery of about 140b as other income.
They need to do more to get more income from the core banking business.

erwinschro:
Its quite simple actually, we are spending all the money on subsidy.

That is the narrative we are being given and that is a big problem.
My worry is this and I think the FPI will be concerned too: if oil price is about $100 and we still cannot get enough dollar to balance our trade, what do you think will happen if oil price drops to like $50 ? Where are we going to get dollar to give them to repatriate their money if and when they decide to move their funds?

Agbalowomeri:
They are loading.....
They will be back when they are fully loaded Lol

Sentiments apart, I think we should all be worried by some of the issues raised by JP Morgan.
How could oil price be going up and is not having a positive effect on our reserve?
Periods of high oil price had always been a good one for the country reserve and balance of trade. Something is definitely not right.

sonofElElyon:
I hope you saw his latest 2 posts still justifying his rather insulting post to me.. I see no sincerity in all those who can't simply tell him he was wrong. Clearly he lacks the capacity to follow the my posts on the matter which just requested for clarification on the audited result of unity bank which actually posted lovely eps and profit after tax and could be taken by any investor as a green light to invest. my sin is that I didn't know there were underlying problems in the bank (which by the way I suspected and therefore requested for interpretation of the net comprehensive income part..
Shame to those who can't tell this man that he is out of line due to blind loyalty... Still he continues to justify his baseless insulting post and some of you can't tell him it's wrong but keep looking for ways to justify him. Good luck to you all. Nothing else to say.. res ipsa loquitur

You need to be calming down
Looking at some of the companies you have mentioned here (daar communication, mcnichols, unity bank among others) for possible buy, one will not be wrong if someone says you are probably new in this business.
My advice, be humble, learn how to read and interpret financial reports and shun the tendency to look for hand out on stock picks as well as quick gains....
We are in a marathon race here and not sprint........ Peace!

petaling:
Sorry Oga @Wanaj0. My respect. Imagine ascribing newbie to a founding member. Please suggest any fine I must pay to appease the god.

That oga no dey talk much but he has more experience in this business than most of us.
He doesn't only buy shares in companies with good numbers, he is also interested in those managing the companies..
If I can still recollect, he once said some glowing words about the present MD of UCAP.
I will not be surprised if he knows the MD of those 3 companies he mentioned personally...

RabbiDoracle:
Does it mean they want to bid the stock from seventy something kobo till N1.60?

How did I get this value?

Current share outstanding = 38.58 B
Current share price = 85 kobo
Market capitalization = N32.793 B

Like you explained, reconstruction details of 1 for 3 reduces the shgare outstanding to

New share outstanding = 12.86 B

For market capitalization to remain the same at the final date they embark on it, price needs to increase.

Assume it is now, current price = 0.85 * 3 = N2.55

Market capitalization = 2.55 * 12.86 = N32.793 B

And they are saying they want to raise N40b in a right issue of 2 unit for 3 units held (source
is Nairametrics) .

Since the outstanding units = 12.86 B

Right issues additional unit = 8.57 B
And amount to be raised will be N40 B

So this means that the right issues price will be N4.67.

At this right issue price, no one will want to take his rights because you are holding a reconstructed stock at 2.55 and you are telling existing holders to take up their rights at N4.67.

How can price after reconstruction (at N2.55) have such a huge gap compared to right issues price (at N4.67)? How can this be bridged?

The way it can be bridged is for the current price of the stock before the reconstruction to rise rapidly from the 85kobo till it gets to N1.56 or over.

Why did I say this?

Because at price of N1.56, if you carry out a reconstruction of shares, the new price will settle at N4.68 (i.e. N1.56 * 3).

And after reconstruction, once you set your right issues price at N4.67, existing holders can easily buy since the price post reconstruction and price post rights are almost same.

Note:

From 85 kobo till N1.56 will be 84% gain in the stock.

Sense will not kill you.
I always enjoy your calculation.

currentprice:
The stock is "TOTAL"

thatz the one pple have not been mentioning here. The other one is popular and well known to everyone many have it in their portfolio and they are buying it everyday.

Note: many stock are selling at discount on d floor right now and it will still get better if one get d patient. am just sharing those I feel is cheaper in my own opinion.

I looked up total numbers and I was impressed. I wonder why my antenna is not spotting good stocks nowadays. Thanks for the head up. If you will not mind i will like that you mention some other stocks you are watching ( non banking) so that someone like me can also look it up to see if they meet my investment criteria.

Capitas7:
Thank you for sharing.

Please guru's, what is your take on Dangote sugar? It is one of those stocks on my list for rebalancing my portfolio, but I want to be sure that I am buying value, especially at a GOOD ENTRY PRICE. This drop in EPS is much, but I would want to base my decisions on a more holistic analysis.

I would appreciate the opinions based on your analysis. ��

Cc. @yMcy56, Pa Emma @emmanuelewumi, @Currentprice, @Onegentleguy and everyone else.

Dangote sugar doesn't do well when global price of raw sugar is on the increase....

emmanuelewumi:
According to SEC, about 5% of the population have investments in the capital market.

You can start Investing in the capital market with as little as N5000.

That will be about 10 million people.
Can you please provide a link to support this assertion as I seriously doubt that figure.

Cadillac15:
Na Nigerian market you dey post all this long grammar for bah?

E be like you newly register for CFA, so body still dey shack you. You go soon calm down when NSE do you strong thing

Go and read up market efficiency theory. I will summarize it for you.

1 Weak form efficient market - NSE belongs here.
In such markets, fundamental analysis and insider information are very useful, but technical analysis is USELESS.

2. Semi-strong form efficient markets - fundamental analysis becomes useless in addition to technical analysis.

3. Strong form efficient markets - insider information also becomes useless.

In NSE, one MD can scatter the chart you are using overnight, by arbitrarily reducing or not paying dividend, even with big profit declared (e.g UBA). This is the least of what can happen to you in NSE.
Wale Tinubu and others are on another level

So leave big grammar, deal with the price and volume information that is available to you as an outsider, and pray for luck.

No western investment strategy can work effectively in NSE as it is a field, filled with lawless wolves

And by the way, NSE has zero in fundamental analysis as the root metric which is good corporate governance in the constituent companies is highly lacking. So every other thing that looks like fundamental is Zero.

I will like to disagree with you here.
The guy you are quoting is doing a great job, there is no harm in exploring all options with a view to discovering what works best for different markets.
Both FA and TA work in NSE. Yes our market is not perfect but there is no perfect market anywhere.

locodemy:
Definitely the rate will come down.Its not going to be automatic.If only they will be straight forward and mean business.

For myjoy84 aka Godisfaithful, he is always a doubting Thomas.He will still say one thing....one thing......

If you want to know if the rate will come down or go up, just keep an eye on our fx reserve and oil price.

erwinschro:
It's a little difficult to get an exact number, but you can estimate it within a very reasonable margin of error. You look at the companies total amount of capital (debt + equity). Then you simply calculate the firms after tax cost of debt multiplied by the percentage of debt in the capital structure and add that to the cost of equity multiplied by the percentage of equity in the capital structure.

The complications come in primarily in calculating the cost of equity. Traditionally, this is done using the capital asset pricing model. The process can be quite tedious, but most financial professionals have access to software (bloomberg or otherwise) that has many of the inputs to calculate the cost of equity such that they don't need to do the calculations and estimations required by themselves.

s

Can we pick a company on the NSE and do the calculation here?

rebekah2011:
You are looking for where the loan is. Check this

Thank you for this....
I actually didnt see it.

gabscity:
I am sure you know how many people have been duped from this lending stuff. It's never advisable... and do u know that when u lend your coins out, and after a while the market dips the borrower dont get to pay u back because he will be returning more coins to you. Borrowers will only pay u back if btc appreciates because they will be paying u lesser coins then but the lesser coins will be valued higher in USD, but, in real terms, you are getting lesser coins back.... all still na mirage.

You are not dealing with the borrowers directly.
Money is pooled together by exchangers who in turn lend the money out.
You have to have more assets than what you want to borrow so that they can easily call back the borrowed fund when the value drops to a certain threshold.
Just like I said earlier, not getting back one's fund from the borrowers is not an issue.

As much as I don't want to continue this discussion here I am not always comfortable when I see posts that don't represent the whole truth.
My last comment on crypto here for now.

emmanuelewumi:
What are the additional collateral when the asset loses value as it is happening and the lender will want to recall the loans?

What is the average margin cover?

Ololo got loans of over N100 billion in 2006, he has not been able to pay the loan. He wanted to use the capital appreciation of the assets to pay back the loans. Having to sell an asset in order to be liquid and generate cash flow can be dangerous and highly speculative.

Ololo contributed to the almost collapse of Union Bank and death of some banks

Most of the crypto exchanges which offer this kind of service has a robust system that makes defaulting by borrowers almost impossible.
It definitely carries some risk but not getting the money back from the borrowers is not an issue.

emmanuelewumi:
What is the collateral?

You borrow against your assets on the platform.
You are not allowed to borrow more than a certain percentage of your assets.
The probability of default by the borrower is almost nil.

emmanuelewumi:
What is the source of the cash flow?


What is the cash flow yield, generated by the ones you have?

By lending out your coins, you get an interest paid to you by the borrower.
The yield varies from time to time and the platform.
Between 5 to 30%. On the average I am looking at a yield of 15%.

emmanuelewumi:
What percentage of your fund can you Invest in a highly volatile asset class which you don't have the fundamentals to carryout a valuation on and does not generate cash flow?

Not all crypto currencies are volatile. And contrary to your assertion, some do generate cash flow. More or less like holding dollars.

One can play it relatively safe by holding some of those stable coins and generate interest on them. You can get an APR that will beat the reruns on our treasury bill and euro bond.

In essence, crypto is not all about buying and selling of bitcoin and other highly volatile coins. It is a very wide space which one can play according to his knowledge, risk appetite and expected returns.

gabscity:
Yinmu! If preserving capital is really your priority, you would not even go close to Crypto at all sir.

We are in crypto for different reasons.
For some, is a way of asset diversification, hedging against devaluation.
Do more of stable coins......

emmanuelewumi:
You are among the minority 5%. Time to accumulate and average down, if you understand the risks and you are prepared for the returns or consequences

Preserving my capital has always been my no one priority.
Risk management is a must.