₦airaland Forum

chunkuli:
oga pluto, thanx for fidson. finally exited today. abeg where do we go from here?

I looked at some companies results last weekend and I was very much impressed with four particular stocks.
Made up my mind to start burying those stocks when cash is available and if they are still trading within my entry ranges.
With the bull in full force however,I am just feeling dizzy.

DeRuggedProf:
Thanks my brother.

- The riskiest time to give or take advice is during a BULL RUN.
- It takes purposeful buying to move stock prices up, but stock prices fall under their own weight.....
- portfolio sizing and money management rules will be discarded now with huge future penalties as oversized portfolios may bleed before exit targets...
- balanced portfolios will be abandoned now for badly tilted portfolios that may not carry shock absorbers in pursuit of 'ON FULL BID'

God help us all.

You are on point sir.
With the bull on rampage,risk is significantly amplified!

Intendy:
fidson most likely taking over of evans medicals.

Let's see if the takeover will be successful.

Thanks for this info,oga intendy.
Sold some of my holdings today.

OBAGADAFFI:
NSE is a mixture of everything(Fundamental, technical, emotions, sentiments, magic etc)

...and tradoforcasting. Just pick the one that suits you and follow it religiously. We are all here to make money.

BullBearMkt:

fxuser:
Ashaka is Wapco jnr sister abi ??

Yes,na wapco jnr sister but she fine well well pass her sister.

OBAGADAFFI:
ASHAKA-- 10.13%(full bid)

My regret! Didn't pick ashaka early enough.
People are not willing to sell again! Mad!!

Mpeace:
So which stocks is ur spread sheet naming. Oando or FBNH...?

Most of the stocks have been mentioned here.
One of them is ashaka cement ....

BullBearMkt:
...my message is simply to look at the overall market breadth and avoid all "sell-in May-June" syndrome

Mpeace:
So which stocks is ur spread sheet naming. Oando or FBNH...?

I no dey do stocks with bad fundamentals o, no matter the temptation. For me oando and fbnh are a no no.

BullBearMkt:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CAN TIME THE MARKET

Good morning fellow Nairalanders.

Today, I want to show us that we can possibly use technical analysis tools to time the market. By timing the market, we want to predict when the market will reverse its trend and be able to determine market highs or lows.

Generally refers to as market breadth, this will enable us to determine whether it is safe to buy a stock (and continue to stay in the market) or not. The market either has bad breadth (declining) or good breadth (rising)...

Most commonly used for breadth evaluation is called Advance-Decline (AD) Line/ratio. Basically, it measure the number of issues that are rising and falling per certain period. As shown in chart 1 below, it oscillates with centreline at 0. When AD-Line is above zero, then we are safe to buy but if below 0, we are not allowed to buy any stock. To me this is very choppy and only good for short term.

My favourite is the combination of McClellan Oscillator (MCO) and Summation Index (SI). While I use MCO for short term signal, SI is good for both short term and medium to long term trading plans.

As with AD, we only start looking for buy opportunities in NSE stock market when MCO and SI are above 0. When MCO is below 0 and SI above 0, it means, short term plan is not safe while medium to long term approaches are safe.

So when "SELL in May/June" talks overshadow the market, I take a look at my NSE Index, MCO and SI to determine market overall breadth...

In chart 1, the red vertical lines indicates a short-term "not-safe-to-buy" scenarios using MCO, while the green vertical lines shows the points where I will be buyers in the market. The 2 magenta lines show where MCO gives false buy signal but was contrasted by SI. But generally during the period shown, on medium to long term, it is safe for me to hold a stock as SI is above 0. Arrows pointing to when I will know earlier that market breadth is shifting.



PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN

Hmnn,different strategy for different people.
My own spread sheet is telling me this is the best time to buy some stocks

yom2:
pls can u give me a breakdown to eps for q1 ? Though i can see about 200percent rise in turn over.

q1 eps for 2016 is 2kobo while that of 2017 is 11kobo.

chunkuli:
my brother so whats ur take after seeing fidson q1?

Overall, the result is good and in line with my projection. I will study it further comparing q1 2017 with q1,q2,q3 and q4 2016. The devil they say is in the details.
For now,my major concern is the astronomical increase in selling and distribution expenses as well as administrative expenses.

We might have to rely more on TA now than ever before. A bullish market is a difficult one for the fundamentalist.

BullBearMkt:
Does Skyebank want to join the on-going rally?
-Over 6m sold
-Over 46m offer
-Zero bid...

Please watch before you leap...

I don't believe anything positive can come from Skye bank.The bank is as good as dead. Whatever might be happening is just mr market being in its crazy mood.
Caution is the watchword.

Intendy:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/17865_FIDSON_HEALTHCARE_-Q1_MARCH_2017_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2017.pdf

don't get it twisted.

Thank you my oga

chunkuli:
if l may ask sir, are you still in or you have sold? or you are still waiting for the q1 result?

I am still in waiting for the q1 result.
I need to see the result to know if my projection is right or wrong.

Manonamission:
Concerning the discuss on Fidson and its unimpressive audited result, I would like to add that results are not the only yardstick the market uses to evaluate a stock. Information and potential in the foreseeable future is equally important.
I actually procrastinated on a Fidson position when it was trading at about N1. I don't have any insider information but if the FGN has decided to conserve forex and instead opt for local patronage of Pharma companies in the fight against diseases outbreak, then we can expect an improvement in the fortunes of these companies (those with the capacity, qualification or required foreign partnership o). We experienced Lassa last year and now meningitis. Who are the key players in this fight against these outbreaks? Any leads?

The above could be mere ramblings that have no bearing to the happenings in the market.

We just have to look at where fidson is coming from.
How did they get to the point where turnover and profits were declining? Did investors overreact and punish the stock with free fall of fidson price? Can we explain why profit went down? Can we identify a particular time when the company turned the corner?.
Can we make a projection into the future based on the available information at our disposal?
These are some of the questions that can guide us if adequately answered and of course those questions should have been answered before the crowd join the queue.

BullBearMkt:
...e be like say DANGOTE FLOUR hear wetin I talk this morning, come give small bull join body make I kuku keep quite!

Sometimes,I wonder whether the market actually listen to us.

The day I mentioned fidson here the price jumped from 96k to N1.05k. And since then I couldn't buy the stock again having set my entry price at below N1. Waited in vain for a pull back to buy more,but.....

currentprice:
Loco is ban for sharing money that lead to a member falling inside the gutter last night

he will not be able to post until weekend except the Mod consider his matter

currentprice:
okay i get d gist,,, improvement over q3 report.

let see how q1 will be.

Thks

Yea, I am eagerly awaiting the q1 result.
Fundamentally entry is late unless there is a pull back.
Bought my holdings when price was below N1.

currentprice:
Q3 vs Audited final result

which one do you think can be rely on for your money

Here is the gist;
In q3 eps was 5k and turnover was 4.5.b
Final year eps was 21k and turnover was 7.6b.
So q4 eps is 15k and turnover is over 3b.

currentprice:
bro,,,, are we looking at the same q4 result. nothing strong here. i wouldn't touch the stock base on the result .

though fair value is N1.70 but there are many stock that can perform more in %

You are actually looking at the final year result.Take a look at q3, then you will understand what I am talking about.

BullBearMkt:
...Mr Market over to you

BullBearMkt:
...as at close of business yesterday, it is indecision & could go either way but generally favours bullishness

Na bear I want on this one now o, biko!

BullBearMkt:
PHARMACEUTICAL SECTOR ON THE MOVE!
One of the sectors on the run with NSE is the Pharmaceutical sector

Took some position in fidson based on their strong q4 result and a projected good q1. Don't know why the q1 result is delayed,that is why I asked for the charts may be it could be saying something that I might need to know, as I'm already sitting on a good profit here.
Thanks once again.

BullBearMkt:
Just writing something on it now

Good

BullBearMkt:
DANGOTE FLOUR DECISION TIME
For the past 5 to 6 days, there have been a lot of struggle between the BULLS and the BEARS on who will take control of the Dangote Flour stock. On all the occasions, before the COB, bears always emerged the winner! But interestingly, they aren't going anywhere as bulls forced them to form support at 4.07.

However, yesterday price bar indicates indecision between bulls and bears. This makes successive trading days very critical. If you are in this stock already, kindly note the followings:

-both daily and weekly are still bullish
-appearance of bull candle/bar now important at this stage to make the stock rally
-if price keeps dragging "forever", do you want to exit the trade and break-even to move-on OR re-check fundamentals to convince yourself about its prospect?
-if price closed below 4.07 support, there is high probability that it's going to test liquidity at next support - 3.60 (and probably 3.43). Do you have the gut for such risk?

TRADE YOUR PLAN AND PLAN YOUR TRADE

Ah ah, do you mean dangote flour could still fall further in price.
That is my wish o. Willing to take some stake on this one but cash is not available yet.

@Bullbearmkt,well-done.
Kindly help me with the charts on fidson. Want to do some experiment here. Thanks in advance.

Chibuking81:
NSE is always like this.
Some loose while some gain,

Apart from Nigeria leadership problem,
Most stocks are good for long time investment, as I was announcing before 2015 election, about the great bear visiting the market that makes a lot of people in this forum who didn't listen to me loss millions of naira.

The same way now am trying to introduce some good stocks that will soon turn many people to millionaires and billionaires.

Softly,softly bro.
Though some of the stocks you mentioned are good, there is no guarantee that they will turn people into millionaire o. People can as well loose their shirts on those stocks. It is all a game of probability!

Chibuking81:
The good entry position this week for above mentioned stocks , from my own side of view,
for both short time traders and long time investors.
1.Dangote Flour @ current price #4.24 or below the current price
2.United capital #2.70
3.Afriprudent #3.45 - 3.60
4.Dangote sugar #5.70- #6.00
5.Zenith bank #13.50 -#14.00 or little above
6.CCNN #4.05
7.Flour mill #17.50
More
1. UACN #13.50
2. fidelity 80 kobo
3. Eterna #2.90
4.Fbnh #3.00 - to current price (before May 5th been their mark down)

(Please if you have contrary view, you are free to oppose any of the recommended stock with their possible entry price, but remember to replace it with your own recommendation, very very important)

I have only read the last quarterly results of dangote flour, ucap, afriprudential, zenith bank and fidelity.
They are all good stocks at current price.We must however not forget that good stocks do not necessary command good price at all time.
The market could be irrational for a very long time putting our patient and conviction to test.
Good luck to all of us.