₦airaland Forum

locodemy:
Let it be that Diamond is paying interim dividend this time around.
I am happy to see the price bubbling.

Diamond is not in a position to pay interim dividend. They will be stupid to consider such a thing at this point in time.

OBAGADAFFI:
CONOIL PLC hit N41

I am disappointed in this one because i have only bought about 20% of my target before the price took off. Mr bull is not ready to wait for result again.

Those who are looking for stocks with good fundamentals and a projected above average q2 result should consider APR.
-Highly favoured by CBN policy
-Good q1 performance
-A projected increase of between 100 to 200% in profit over 2016 q2
-Possibility of an interim dividend.

Wish you all a very bullish week!

Coolcash1:
I have said it before on this forum, always take their advise with a pinch of salt. This is because yours truly have been a victim of bad advise like this which made me loose some cash. This analyst recommended I sell my Oando (when it was on full bid ) that it won't go beyond N8. Based on this, I quickly exited not for me to see the stock progressing to N9.6

These analysts too are biased at time in their recommendation. They can use their report to bring down or boost a share price for their own selfish interests. ON FBNH, I am with ihediommara and fxuser on this, KM 10-KM20+...This year is for the banks and I see millionaires being made.

For your own good, enter the stock again on Monday and make more money.

Disc: Loaded in the stock.

I don't think there is any investment house that make stock recommendations just to deliberately mislead people. We must all understand that nobody has got any crystal ball when it comes to stock price forcasting. Your analysis can be good but mr market can decide otherwise. That is the reason a good analyst will always qualfy his opinion and will not tell you that stock A will be selling for so so amount by next month.

fxuser:
Yours truly Fidelity is winning ohh ! lolz

It is just a matter of time. Diamond bank will eventually win the race. q2 results will be a major determinant.

The four levels of wisdom;
The man who knows and knows he knows is wise. Follow him.
The man who knows and knows not he knows is asleep. Wake him.
The man who knows not and knows he knows not is a student. Teach him.
The man who knows not he knows not is a fool. Shun him.

Cadillac15:
Diamond bank is the most stupid share on NSE. I made a loss of N300k on that stock last week and i have sworn never to buy it again.

I didnt know much about the fundamentals of the company before i sank my fund there but after my loss, i had to research and my findings revealed i was foolish from the word Go.

Diamond sold about 20% of their equity to a foreign partner two years ago in order to get the necessary funds to boost their Tier 1 & 2 capital. That partner has been trapped in the Nigerian market since then and has been desperate to leave.

Hence, the profits of the company for the past two years has been channeled towards paying off the partner and this is expected to continue for the next two years. This same partner has fund managers in the country who manage their holdings and they have been divesting from the company gradually which is why you will notice heavy dumping whenever the share price gets close to N1.

They applying a two pronged approach in leaving the Nigerian market:

1. Sell back shares to the company in return for profits declared ( hence no dividend to other shareholders)

2. Sell shares to uninformed and stupid shareholders whenever the price is right, to reduce their holdings

http://thecitizenng.com/carlyle-group-buys-into-diamond-bank-as-nestoil-fails-to-acquire-block-shares/
2014 news

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/06/foreign-investors-shun-diamond-banks-550m-bonds/
2013 news

http://www.gulfafricareview.com/07/12/2014/business/carlyle-group-acquires-18-stake-in-nigerias-diamond-bank/
2014 news

Like i said, only a fool will venture into that waters and i have learnt the hard way.

JAHBLESS

If you have truly gone through diamond financial result, you will not write what you have written here.
Carlyle group that acquired a 17.75 stake in the bank in 2014 are still much around.
As at December 2016, they have not sold a single unit of their holdings.This can be confirmed from pg 5 of the bank 2016 annual report. I wonder where you got your information from.

Cadillac15:
Do you know much they would have earned with that money if they invested it elsewhere?

Do you know the price of crude oil when that deal was consumated?

Do you know the banks 500m usd bond flopped b4 that?

Do you know the loss position before that deal?

Are you also aware that earnings have been retained ever since? Can you explain that?

Do you think crude oil will go back to 110usd in 3years?

And finally, what do you think happened to all the usd denominated loans?

500m USD bond flopped?
For a bank that just raised $200m eurobond this year after they raised $200m in 2014??

https://www.google.com.ng/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL6N0O137420140515&ved=0ahUKEwivxoTnt5XUAhVNPFAKHaM3Ah4QFgg1MAY&usg=AFQjCNHWA_F-bNGA3OMEKFLXRXnsDNp3Rg&sig2=aTzTSD02zQZFd6wyJErN2w

https://www.google.com.ng/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://standardtimespress.org/%3Fp%3D5111&ved=0ahUKEwivxoTnt5XUAhVNPFAKHaM3Ah4QFggpMAI&usg=AFQjCNGLxiXtzUd6fcHWqLKdLJlq_ErtnQ&sig2=KPIcDsfIeiZaG8i5MmpATw

Cadillac15:
Do you know much they would have earned with that money if they invested it elsewhere?

Do you know the price of crude oil when that deal was consumated?

Do you know the banks 500m usd bond flopped b4 that?

Do you know the loss position before that deal?

Are you also aware that earnings have been retained ever since? Can you explain that?

Do you think crude oil will go back to 110usd in 3years?

And finally, what do you think happened to all the usd denominated loans?

Most of what you wrote about diamond bank are at best misinformation and it clearly shows your bias against the bank. That is not unexpected anyway from someone who has suffered heavy losses on the bank in recent time. I am equally appalled at some of your conclusions for other banks you mentioned in your posts. Diamond and fcmb have bad fundamentals but fbnh is good fundamentally. May be we are not reading the same financial reports from the aforementioned banks.
Let me address one of the issues that you raised about diamond bank that shows your lack of understanding of how financial institutions work. The bank has been retaining its earning in recent past because of CBN rule.
Diamond bank CAR is close to the regulatory minimum and they need cash injection of tier 1 capital(owners equity). The best way to do this is to raise funds by selling new shares. With the depressed state of the market,that option was considered inappropriate and they were left with only one option- retained earnings. They have been doing this for some years now just to shore up CAR and not to pay some people as you insinuated in your write up.A look at the shareholders fund over the years will confirm this.If you are looking for dividend, diamond bank is not for you.
I will stop here for now and address other issues you mention later.

Mpeace:
Bank stocks are too risky for such long term investments. I remember Intercontinental, Oceanic, Finbank etc and even skye that held lots of promise had good fundamentals anf paid good dividend, the only took a short while to deteriorate. Bad management is something that can easily happen and destroy a company in less than a year(if you doubt me ask FBNH) banks are too volatile. As for oil stocks, no one knows whether oil will still be relevant in 18yrs. So if u want long term, just buy land.

I am also of the opinion that 18yrs is too long for any stock in Nigeria to go bad. 10/15 yes ago, fbn was the poster boy of the bank stocks. Where are they today? Just hope someone will do the analysis on fbn and Union bank for those that bought about 5/10/15 years ago and what will be the worth of their investment today. Gtb and zenith are doing well today but who knows what will happen to them 1/2/5/15 years down the line..
My own advice be say buy good stocks at good price and review your holdings every six month(if you cannot do it quarterly) and if you notice a change in the fundamentals of any of the companies in which you have an interest then you adjust and realigned your portfolio accordingly.

Intendy:
http://nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/18255_FIDSON_HEALTHCARE_-_PRESS_RELEASE_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2017.pdf

what of Evans?

I didn't believe the news myself.
Can't see how danjuma will sell or merge may and baker with fidson.
Evans will be a more realistic possibility.

yok:
I see Vitafoam moving to about NGN3.13, this is supported by the fundamentals and the technical chart. The momentum f9or the upward movement is strong. Trading this stock at this level involves minimal risk. I will put my stop loss at 2.12.

Extract of the financials an the chart is shown below.

For me playing the market at JIJO level seems to be the best, especially if I look at some losses I have made using the buy and hold method. Getting in love with a stock is not worth it for now. Just as I am writing this, I too am placing my order by e-mail to my brokers for execution tomorrow.


CAUTION: This is my personal opinion. The sources of data are assumed to be correct, but you may need to do your own verification of the facts. For any chart analysis, I am available for assistance.

Sir,I think it would have been better if you have shown more details on the FA chart .
For a company like vitafoam, net profit and eps are more important than operating profit.
For instance at year end September 2016 the company recorded a loss after tax of 32m as against a profit after tax of 413m in 2015.
The gearing ratio too is very important to full TA. In my opinion the company is highly leveraged and they might come to the market very soon to raise some money and that I don't think is good for investors.

BullBearMkt:
SHOULD INVESTORS SELL IN MAY AND COME BACK IN SEPTEMBER?
I love analyst backing up their assertions with data or evidences. I have been hearing the popular statement, "sell in May and Come back in September" since I can even remember. Experience they say, is the best teacher. This may be what many investors have witnessed and encountered in the market place.

I have been looking at NSE data recently to determine if this assertion is valid. To a large extent, the statement is valid, but with a little modification. Table below shows NSE winning percentage rates. Between 2002 to 2016, the month of May has the highest winning rate (73%) followed by June at 53% and the least is August having just 27% wins. Selling in May after reaching my investment objectives seem fine, but June is not totally bad either.

That is not the whole story, before the great depression in 2008, sell in May and come back in September did not hold water as virtually all the months won apart from August which was flat. However, after the economic depression in Nigeria, the theory is reasonable; only month of May appreciated by 67% while the remaining 3 months are on losing streak.

What interest me however is in the chart below. The almost similarities between Price & MACD from March 2012 and March 2017 is of interest to me. The arrows on the chart are pointing at the Month of May. Nigeria economy started picking up from 2008 depression in 2010 and GDP was growing before it got to its peak in 2014. Impact of the economy recovery is shown on Investors attitude towards investment on NSE ALL Share Index.

Yesterday, MPC reported a GDP growth rate of -0.52 better than previous 4 quarters. This is an improvement in the economy

Good work my brother.
Can you pls explain what you mean by winning percentage?

db15:
Good evening all, please I have a question. I followed up on this sec directive and submitted my e-dividend to the registrars. they keep asking for my stockbroker to update my signature as my signature is not in their database.

I thought the purpose of having your bank sign off on the e-dividend is to avert all this.

Also is there a way to do this once and for all on maybe cscs account or must we always do same per shares bought.

Please advice

Did you submit your form directly to your registrars or through your bank?

Audacius:
Thank you. Helpful responses. God bless you.

Amen

Audacius:
Thank you. Could that e-dividend friendly bank be GTB or Diamond. It will be crazy that after queuing for over one hour in GTbank they tell you go we can't accept it.

I think it depend on the bank branch.
Anyway,it was diamond bank that did it for me here.

Princkez:
no,just ur passport photo nd BVN no.

Audacius:
Please, still on this e-dividend matter. I know that on the e-dividend mandate forms there is a slot for you to fill in your shareholder's account number as part of the requirements. In a situation where you just bought shares newly in a company and have not received dividend warrant for you to know your shareholder's number, can one still go ahead to process the e-dividend without putting the shareholders number?! Thanks.

Some banks will insist on the shareholder number and some will process it without the no.
I did my own without the shareholder no.
If one bank is not ready to do it go to another bank.

veecovee:
I posted many e-div forms via Post Office, to many registrars, as my bank directed me after stamping my forms. But unfortunately I've neither received alert nor email from any of them. In fact I pressured cardinal stone thru e-mail before their dividend payment. But they didn't care to reply... Though they've posted the warrant, I still didn't know what went wrong in the process I followed.

That is the old way of doing it. I also did the same with little success
Now, NIBBS has simplify it,you can start all over again just like I did.
Go to your bank and tell them you want to register for e dividend. Complete the form and wait. If your bank does its job, in less than two weeks you will get a message from NIBSS that you have been registered.

OBAGADAFFI:
Are you saying you didn't sign your E-dividend mandate forms?

That's strange.

Haba, there is no way you will fill the form and not sign it now.
You will do everything at the bank and they will crosscheck before they complete their part.

valacious:
This was exactly what I did..It took like 7 working days to get a response from them..I bought from the secondary market..you can even tick the stocks you may be interested in buying in future, so as to activate the edividend..
My question is begging for answer, after getting a message from NIBBS what else are you to do..or do you just wait for credit alert of your dividend..how long does that take?

How many messages did you get?

"Hello,
Hello Customer,
Your mandate has been Approved on the e-DocumentMgr Platform."
That is the first message

And the second one like this

"Dear
Your e-Dividend Mandate Form has been APPROVED by GTL REGISTRARS for the following quoted company: UNIVERSITY PRESS PLC"

I have only gotten the second message for one of the registrars waiting for the other two.
I plan to call them by next week to know the status and to ask them on what steps do I need to take to claim my outstanding dividend.

If you have unclaimed dividend with them,call them and if it is all about future dividend, you don't need to worry yourself, just wait and the alert will come in once dividend is declared and paid.

Tritri:
Thank you But The form i got has signature confirmation on it..Has anyone done any WITHOUT signature confirmation ?

Since your bank is going to do the upload you don't have to worry about signature confirmation. The bank will do their part before they upload it to NIBSS. The major challenge here is your bank. I have to use my second bank to do it for me when the first one was asking for too many things.
Just go to your bank and tell them you want to register for e mandate.

Tritri:
Did they require signature confirmation from you?

This one does not require signature confirmation.
Download the e-devidend form from your registrar website or you can even get the form from your bank.
Fill it with your passport and take it to your bank. Your bank will upload it directly for you and if you are successful you will get a mail from NIBSS that your mandate has been approved on e mandatemgt platform.

fxuser:
Week To Date performance

Top Gainers
May & Baker +31.96%
ETI +22.50%
Fidson +21.52%
PZ +20.22%
Oando +20.22%
Unity +20.00%
Eterna +17.88%
Diamond +17.65%
NBL +17.-0%
Transcorp +16.33%

Nice one.
Thanks for the update.

feelamong:
http://thenationonlineng.net/oando-take-port-harcourt-refinery/

The Federal Government has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Nigeria’s largest indigenous energy group, Oando Plc to manage the Port Harcourt Refinery under a repair, operate and mainteain (ROM) arrangement.

Chief executive officer, Oando Plc, Mr. Wale Tinubu at a presentation on the underlying facts of the group’s operations at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) yesterday in Lagos, said the group has received approval of the government to oversee the Port Harcourt Refinery.

“We also got approval from the President to repair, operate and maintain the Port-Harcourt refinery together with our partner Agip. We plan to increase the refinery capacity from 30 per cent to a 100 per cent, subsequently to 120 per cent,” Tinubu said.

Oando,you cannot beat them to their game!

BullBearMkt:
...thank you sir for further fundamental expatiation on the stocks, just love the correlation.

I was actually surprised that TA can pick anything on conoil with its liquidity challenge.
Great job you are doing.
One love!

Princkez:
says who...these guys are doing silent job and d Q2 u are talking abt might suprise u....just like many were waiting 2 buy at 2.80k.Pls do u kno d real PAT of FBNH 2016 audited if not for d provisions dey made,do u know its part of their profit dey are using 4 all these write off? and rem d money is still with dem dey r only proving 4 loans dey feel might not b recovered main while som loans wil start peforming b4 d end of 2017.Make out time 2 study dat result....i promise u by 2017 Q4 FBNH will no longer be a stock of #6. mark my words.God bless our investments.

Stock market is a crazy place and predicting where the price will be in the future should be done with caution.
As for fbnh results, there is nothing to be excited about yet. They have been promising a cleaner book for how many years now? What we keep seeing is a bank with a bigger hole with each passing day. They still have a long way to go and I don't see them coming out of their present trouble in a year or two.

BullBearMkt:
...the 2 behave the same way. The daily accumulation on Total has been on for weeks and same for Conoil, Weekly and Monthly are also similar. Both have potential on long term and short term, but my concern is why they are lagging in this ongoing crazy bull. I prefer both on mid- to long term plan

This oga self,na every stock you dey put eye?
What is happening to both stocks can be explained fundamentally.
Investors were disappointed with total q1 result and for conoil ,it is a waiting game,yet to release its 2016 fy result. And if we are to go by tradition, the result might not be out until August and until that result is released, activities on the stock will most liked be muted.

woodcook:
Meritrade not updating still showing yesterday's market status. Anyone facing the same issue?

The same here with cardinalstone.

austinkenneth:
After the delisting, the conversion factor from Ashaka to Lafarge shares will 57 of Lafarge for 202 of Ashaka plus N4 for very new Lafarge share.

If Lafarge is N46, Ashaka should be around N13. The two should move in tandem. Lafarge started moving before Ashaka thats the reason for the interest in it. But Lafarge rights issue has blunted the interest.

The tender period should have closed by march. Anybody buying now should be ready to join a private company.

chunkuli:
pls share some of the good ones, we are still bsitl

They have all been mentioned at a point by members on this forum.
Ashaka cement which I later found out might be delisted from NSE anytime from now. Hence I have removed it from the list.
Others are;
CCNN
Presco and
Okomu.
And just like somebody observed, price appreciation on these stocks might be slow but they represent great value at the current price in my own opinion.
We must also put it at the back of our mind that these type of stocks might not give the best returns in a bullish market.

And lastly,everyone should do his own dd as this is not a recommendation to buy.

holm:
@Pluto,

What's your take on the rumour arround the take-over of the evansmed plc by Fidson?

Coming from sir intendy who is known to be very close to the market,I very much believe it to be true.
However, if you are in fidson I will advise you follow you own strategy.