₦airaland Forum

Still on AG Leventis.

Let me throw this to the house. I need help here. I am attaching 3 years interim results (Thanks bro). The Q-1 for 2006 is missing.

Please project PAT for full year 2007 based on the interim results for 2007 and the pattern from 2005 and 2006. I am beginning to think the 460M I have projected is too conservative.

damoche07:
Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained?

Thanks. I think my using the phrase "growth may not be sustained" is confusing.

I meant to say that after checking previous years, the PAT generated in Q-4 is only about 25% of the PAT reported in Q-3 which is the quarter in which majority of PAT is reported.

So in projecting full year PAT one should not make a linear projection. So calculation of FY PAT = 4/3 multiplied by Q-3 PAT may result in a grossly inaccurate projection.

My conservative full year PAT based on this observation is now 460M instead of 550M.

Mr. Cee:
@ ALL

Please if I want to insert quotes from previous pages how would I go about it?

Locate the post from the user. Click on the user name to go to the profile page.

At the bottom, under "Additional Information", Click on
"Show the last posts of this person".

Locate the post and click on "quote".

Fire on.

jehosaphat:
@ Pumping
When you refer to "cheaper deals in the market or about to come out", would you kindly point out a couple  ( Cheaper than Bagco) so that I pounce on them? I know you don't mean Zenith, Fidelity and Afribank. Phb is definitely a buy but Bagco ranks among the better offers for sure. Like Wanajo said about Aiico, they merged with (or bought) another coy so we don't even know what the true outstanding shares are yet. Costain should be good too, lets wait and see.

Bank PHB and Zenith are better priced POs in my opinion even based on current earning levels. So I don't even want to consider that I have not seen Zenith's prospectus.  I have my analysis on Bagco, Bank PHB and Zenith in this thread somewhere. No patience to dig them out right now. My analysis of Bagco is based on what they have projected in their prospectus. Based on this projection, it is expensive for the price. I am not talking about the nominal price now.

I have seen other analysis suggesting that the projections are conservative so maybe Bagco will do better. If this is the case, good, but I don't want to assume they will do better than they have promised.

On the other hand, there is money to be made with the Bagco offer because it is an IPO (Not PO) and will be listed for the first time. The price is likely to head north as we have seen with most newly quoted stocks (Not like Transcorp sha!!). It will most likely be oversubscribed so there is the chance of making quick bucks. This will likely be based on sentiments and not necessarily the good returns from Bagco.

@aktopgun

As you are still so much into stock activities in the delivery room, lets hope your son won't make his entrance with Zenith Banks' PO forms in one hand and First Banks' PO certificates in the other!!

Amen o. Please share the 9 month interim result with us as new daddy on the block.

pumping777:
Hold means do not sell for now (It does not mean hold forever  ) which is what you want to do. Wait for some more appreciation.

In the very short term I think N4.30 is ambitious though. Lasaco's half year PAT was 0.54B, so a Q-3 PAT of 0.87B is not such a surprise.

@MyPeace

I hope you are watching Lasaco. It already lost on Friday to close at N3.29. Like I opined, the current interim result is not sufficient to drive the price to N4.30 in the short term.

no_shaking:
Not quite so! The burden to be relieved _post-IPO would just be marginal! Remember total interest expenses (pre-IPO) only account for about 10% of its turnover and with the company's intent of using 90% of its PO to clear its existing debt, earnings growth would not be substantial _{re.opportunity cost}, and besides strategically, nothing much is changing overtime - its strategic intents, business model; Flour Mill still major customer etc.

At best, Bagco is just a CAUTIOUS BUY not based on fundamentals, but on sentiments surrounding company's first public listing on the floor and the subsequent price rally etc. Hey, my opinion though!

We share the same thought. I think folks might make money because this is an IPO (not a PO) and the shares are being listed for the first time so the price may just head north after listing.

Otherwise, I don't see how this offer beats others that are available or almost due right now. I think it is an expensive offer even long term and apart from sentiments I don't know what will be driving the price. It also appears that new shares will not be entitled to dividends for year end December 2008. What if bonus shares are issued to existing shareholders too? This dilutes the price.

I will only buy if I must do PO/IPO and I have already made provision for Bank PHB and Zenith. With Costain and Aiico also lurking in the shadows, it will be a hard choice.

gonziiii:
@pumping, plz send me your excel sheet, i;ve looked for it down the thread couldn't find it, ericelewa1@yahoo.com, thx

It is on page 189.

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?action=dlattach;topic=31554.0;id=57668

ololufemi:
@ Wanajo,

This market is being dictated by these guys who take big loans to trade. I met this guy who took a loan of about N15 million to trade in stocks. Na them dey make market go see-saw but its important you know what you do.

I think you are too conservative with this figure. I'm not sure the market will notice someone with N15 Million except the person is going after penny stocks. To cause a price Tsunami in this market you need much more than that.

@ Wanaj0

I am speechless.  

RESPECT.

God bless you real good.

yodiyokun:
@Pumping,

I hope to critically review that your spreadsheet over the weekend.

I am sure I will have loads of questions - can I have your email address.

So I can take my nagging questions off the thread.

Thanks

pumping777 (at) yahoo (dot) com

@Wanaj0 - See my email for here too o  

wanaj0:
Just copy every day from the CTSL report the daily prices and paste into a spreadsheet. You get that done in less than 1 minute!!!!!!!!!! Not sure how that affects your daily job

Good that you have agood grasp of what you are doing.

Ok, I get you. I thought you wanted me to keep track of daily prices.

It's what I already do and I shared this convenient trick on the thread yesterday (and I used the same expression "less than 1 minute!).

My price column is exactly the same as that of FSDH so once I get their report via email, I just copy and paste.

-------------

yelinax:
@ pumping
Your spreadsheet is such a blessing. Can you suggest to me how i can best update the daily share prices on the spreadsheet. Considering the volume, is there any way i can copy from say an on-line site with daily share prices and them paste it in the spreadsheet.


Subscribe to the stock price list at www.fsdhsecurities.com. This is the format I used for my spreadsheet. You will have it sent to your email daily. You can also get it on the site but that one is not in excel format so copying columns is a problem.

Just save the one you get from the email and copy the price column there to the price column on my spreadsheet. Watch out for new listings so always check to make sure that the order is still the same.

In less than a minute you should have your up to date spreadsheet.
--------

It appears the bears are having their voice heard in the market. Hopefully some more stocks will drop prices to an attractive level.

wanaj0:
That new account will still get clustered. Many CSCS accounts may even get you confused with reconciliation issues.

What you need is to re arrange that your spreadsheet. Have the daily prices on one for each year. Have the results on another sheet. Same way as CTSL is sending it to you. Then have another sheet with your list of stocks and prices to arrive at your current valuation. With a comment in the excel cell you can make a note on transactions that goes on on any stock. EPS is the only thing that you need to calculate with a new result. PE can be automatically updated. That way you have a one stop information for your analysis. You can even include the exit price you've set for yourself or the precentage gain that you target or realised. You can have a systematic way of doing thinsg instead of the herd mentality that pervades.

You can also have a trending of the price movements.

I have a different excel sheet for valuation to compliment what I have in my portfolio manager. So I know my stock positions at any point in time.

I also have another sheet with all the buy and sell transactions for each stock. So I know my cash position at any point in time.

The ratios in the excel sheet are all automatically updated. I only have to update the projected PAT after new interim results.

My exit points are defined per stock holding and I'm alerted once there is a cross-over.

The part I don't understand is having daily prices on each stock for each year. As in have prices for around 250 trading days in the year?   If so, that will be toying with my day job 

wanaj0:
Nice option.

However experience has taught me that when I sell a stock, I still maintain minimal holdings there.

May and Baker did a PO last year at 4.00. Applied for 200,000 units in my personal name and another 100,000 units corporately. Had only 13,333 units left in May and Baker. The offer was hugely oversubsribed. The allotment was simple, existing shareholders were allotted all that they asked for. New applicants got a prorated allocation. So I got the 200,000 I applied for as an individual while I got only 20,000 from the corporate account.

Another example will be rights issue. With only 500 units in WAPCo or BCC, you will qualify for the Rights. You can now apply for more than entitled rights. Yes, rights are now traded on the NSE but it is not that easy to get.

So while you may own 30 stocks, a careful analysis of your portfolio may show that 10 may contribute 90% of your holdings. The remaning 20 or so are those that can provide you entry into juicy opportunities.

Interesting. The angle of rights issue and the being kept abreast of any corporate actions, AGMs etc is brilliant. This is an advanced tip from a doyen.  You too try.

To avoid having a cluttered CSCS statement, I think I will actually open a new account and maintain little quanties of any stock I trade on there.

I had similar thoughts in the past but for a very different reason. In my CSCS account, when I go into the details of any stock I own, I can see the sell and buy transaction information for the stock. If I completely liquidate the stock, this information is no longer available. So I was thinking, leave a few stocks behind when you sell so you can still see these transactions.

Unfortunately I found out that these buy and sells transaction information are only retained for a while so I abandoned the idea.

Over-diversification??

My preferred option is to stick to a very narrow band of stocks. This can expose one to more risks but I think it offers the best chance of highest returns.

First, I'd like to limit the number of stocks I have to monitor in detail. Next, I like to be forced to choose the stock that I think will provide the highest returns.

I will diversify by not concentrating in one sector for instance but at any point in time, if I am investing in banking stocks as an example, I want to limit my investment to the 2 or 3 that I think will bring the highest returns.

I used to have over 30 stocks in my portfolio but the discipline now is to limit my portfolio to a max of 10 stocks at any one time.

ololufemi:
@ All

Roughcut is right about Warren Buffet. Even read it today in the Daily Wealth emagazine.

Simple Rules

The wider your stock portfolio, the less your portfolio risk and the less your expected returns on investment

The narrow your stock portfolio, the higher your portfolio risk and higher your expected returns on investment

For me, I feel I am still young and its better to take high risks now since I am not yet married with kids .

If I can't take risks now, when will I. Its better to take those risks now.

When you now have a family of yours, your risk appetite should reduce because you are not in the game for your own benefit but for members of your family.

I am very married with kids but my risk appetite is still quite high. The important thing for me is not to invest with "chop" money. Any attempt for members of my family to complain

aktopgun:
thought i'd put this out there for future reference possibly

CUTIX PLC:

EPS 2006 - 40 KOBO
EPS 2005 - 18K
EPS 2004 - 20K
EPS 2003 - 17K
EPS HAD DROPPED FOR 3 YRS IN AROW FROM YR 2000-2002 BEFORE RISING TO 2003 VALUE ABOVE

SHARES OUTSTANDING - 510396608

YEAR END - APRIL 30TH

LATEST PAT FYE APRIL 30TH 2007- 121.7M (REPRESENTING A 124% INCREASE COMPARED TO PAT FY 2006)
PAT DROPPED FROM 23,635M TO 18,367M BETWEEN 2000 AND 2001 BUT HAD RISEN IN THE PRECEEDING 3YRS OF 1998-2000. IT HAD INCREASED PROFITS YEAR ON YEAR FROM AT LEAST 2003 AS FAR AS I CAN SEE (PLS SHARE IF You HAVE CONTRARY FACTS TO THIS)

HAS PAID DIVIDEND YEAR ON YEAR SINCE 1998

DOWN SIDE IS THAT IT IS SOMEWHAT ILLIQUID IN COMPARISON TO OTHER WELL KNOWN COMPANIES. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY TRADING AT A PREMIUM AND MAY BE TOO EXPENSIVE FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT WAS AT A HIGH OF N25 BEFORE THEIR RECENT SHARE SPLIT SO STILL HAS A WAY TO GO YET TO REACH THOSE HEIGHTS

Shares diluted further due to the scrip issue of 1 for 10. Total outstanding shares should now be 0.53B. I'm with you. It is currently trading at a significant premium.

LondonCool:
@Pumping777,

I have sent you an email, I'd highly appreciate your repsonse

I don retaliate.

So something is really brewing with Livestock Feeds.

A total of 630,519,000 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Livestock Feeds Plc on Thursday, November 22, 2007 following the Placing with three Investors.

I don send am. Make you try review your email address below because of spammers.

After you make the critical decisions, no forget my bank account. I dey collect e-money

Chellarams did not drop price today. It was marked down for dividends of 15K.

Also, the TS on ETI PLC has been lifted and it gained N7.75 (about 4%).

samstone4:
@Tonyjon

@all

Although AG Leventis may appear to be dong well it has always had a reputation for not paying good dividend - same with NBC. There has been suggestion of the main shareholders getting their profits via their imports for new machineries etc, if you know what I mean. So I will tread cautiously here.

Samstone4

There may be reasons to be cautious with AG Leventis but dividends to me is no issue. The dividend paid by these companies is less that the commision charged by my broker to buy the stock. Why should I be interested in some miserly 2%?? It does not cut it for me.

model1780:
@ FATHER OF 2,Ololufemi,pumping e.t.c
Please can u explain to me how UBA's declaring of dividend will help push up d price. Also please how the result of Oceanic bank being expected drive the price up?

Some folks just love dividends. Don't ask me why. So once the date of the closure of the register is announced, some will start piling up and those that have will want to hold on so they qualify for dividends. This can push up the price. The sentimental drive from dividends is not as much as from bonus shares but sometimes it can be significant.

Oceanic may declare a result that is above what was projected/expected. This can drive up the price.

SGN:
@Pumping777

I see you are online, just to know you opinion on this scenario -

I bought GT price at a high price, and if I sell now I will take a loss of 15%. But given the situation with GT Bank in the last few months, would you rather take the loss and try and take position in other emerging opportunites, like Oceanic & UBA or would you hold given that it has to appreciaite 17.5% before I break even. I have had it for 4 months now.

Thanks.

It's good that you realize the 17.5%/15% scenario.

I will wait until next year when GT announces full results. I think you will get your money back. GT is a solid stock and tend to end the year strong.

yelinax:
@ pumping
Your spreadsheet is such a blessing. Can you suggest to me how i can best update the daily share prices on the spreadsheet. Considering the volume, is there any way i can copy from say an on-line site with daily share prices and them paste it in the spreadsheet.

Subscribe to the stock price list at www.fsdhsecurities.com. This is the format I used for my spreadsheet. You will have it sent to your email daily. You can also get it on the site but that one is not in excel format so copying columns is a problem.

Just save the one you get from the email and copy the price column there to the price column on my spreadsheet. Watch out for new listings so always check to make sure that the order is still the same.

In less than a minute you should have your up to date spreadsheet.

AG Leventis (Last Fiscal Year)

The turnover of the company increased by 1.43%, from N7 billion to N7.1 billion in 2006. profit after tax also increased from N343 million to N395 million in 2006, an increase of 14.9%. The full year EPS stood at N0.18, while a dividend of N0.10 was approved. The company is likely to begin manufacturing of generators here in Nigeria, and this will boost its profitability in the nearest future. It would interest you to know that Nigeria is the largest importer of generators in the world at present.The register closure date ids May 14, 2007.

So in Q-4, turnover grew from 5.08B to 7.1B but PAT only grew from 0.36B to 4B. Most of the PAT was reported in Q-3 in 2006 and also in 2007, but Q-4 2006 recorded a PAT that is only about 25% of the PAT in Q-3 2006.

To summarize, I think one can enter this short term because this growth may not be sustained in Q-4.

@EMMAACHILE Thanks for sharing all those reports. Keep them coming.

In my case I missed it because I still lack some results dating to the past.

On the surface it is easy to miss because the Q-2 PAT was only 0.22B. However, considering the Q-3 PAT for 2006 was 0.36B and the Q-2 PAT for 2006 was 0.18B, one should have caught on the trend that the Q-3 PAT could be significantly higher.

The only problem is that I did not have the Q-3 result for 2006. What we need now is the full year for 2006. I am going to go find it now.

Yes, if I can get tomorrow or Friday, I am in.

damoche07:
Checked it up.You got the results?Please do share if u got it.Think its worth putting some idle money?

I think the real question is if you will get to buy. It looks like a good buy to me if you can still get it now. It maxed 5% open to close today.

A.G. LEVENTIS NIGERIA PLC
9 months, Sep. 2007

                                   2007                     2006
Turnover                   5,078.00 5,560.00

PAT                               411.90  355.00

Observe lower turnover though.

I think we have a new kid on the block. Though another fairly illiquid stock.

AG Leventis.

I think the kid has already bolted though. With the results declared today, the forward PE is now looking like 13.29 even after max points today. The Q-3 PAT is almost the full year projected PAT!!

If you have the stock, hold on tight.

REZIGIRL:
@ pumping,
so do one assume based on your tolerance level that those PEs on red means alert to u or what? based on today's price, diamond bank PE should be 20.25 hence on red too. Also can notice UBN has about d lowest PE in d banking sector (17.64 based on today's price), but this stock hasn't been doing too well from my observation, how do one correlate this with its low PE? (I've got some units of UBN i'll want to trade off with a target price of N55).

Also from lasaco recent results, how well can u predict it before dec ending, actually had a target price of N4 - N4.50 to cash out. How long do u think one will hold this or is it a 2008 stock?

PEs on red for me means "Do not buy except there is other information or market news to justify paying this premium now" An example reason could be the rate of growth of the company and maybe the expectation of a significantly better result than is projected.  I am looking for undervalued stocks so my tolerance level for PEs is very low. I do not want to pay the fair price for a stock.  

UBNs price is responding to public perception. Investors feel the bank is not as dynamic as other first-tier banks and this is affecting the market sentiments. Also, there is meant to be foreign capital injection and the shares may be diluted still.

Frankly I will not stick with UBN and I offloaded a while ago. Just ask yourself what you think the price of UBA or Zenith will be if UBN becomes N55. So instead I stick with UBA or Zenith.

I think good insurance stocks should really be held till at least 2008. I don't expect the prices to dip to what they were 3 weeks ago. Most folks that took profit after the last bull run may have to pay a premium on their selling price to re-enter.

I think N4 is a reasonable target for Lasaco in the short term though.

damoche07:
@pumping

After the scolding by our own easimoni-who incidentally is on a self declared holiday-i have started learning.I have seen the spreadsheet.Do i take an average of the PE's in all the companies sector as the average PE in that sector. The column for trailing PE is blank and u guys talk about it a lot.Is it not that relevant. If its relevant,whats the difference btwn trailing and projected.

You already got the explanation from Temmie10 and RoughCut.

Let me talk about updating the trailing PE on the excel sheet. I don't have it for most companies on the excel sheet because I don't have the last full year results. Also new full year results will soon be coming in. You can also use any interim result that has been declared. I prefer to use on Full year results. If you get this, just update the turnover and PAT columns for Full Year 2006. The copy any field in which the trailing PE has been calculated to the corresponding field for the company you have just updated the turnover and PAT. The trailing PE will automatically be calculated.

If you want to calculate it yourself,  

Trailing PE =  (Capitalization (price multiplied by number of shares)/Last Full Year PAT)