₦airaland Forum

I remain loyal to Lawunion

Nahco's stock price is still on the rise and now N28.90 despite a forward adjusted PE of around 52 after factoring in 25% possible oversubscription. Wow!! I hope Nahco has some very positive surprises in the offing. I don't need to be told that many times the NSE is no respecter of fundamentals _{at least short term}

FatherOF2 - I can't get over your reference to "spreadsheet profit" earlier today. True talk indeed!! This can be dangerous.

The reverse is my greatest problem though. Once I see "money" in my spreadsheet I want to convert it to Banker's cash right away without waiting for possible further rise. I tend to stick to my exit point almost 100% but sometimes I wonder.

yodiyokun:
Ok I have checked UNIC numbers, @ pumping confirm if I am on the right track

As at todays price Proj PE is 16.20 based on the 2nd Qtr results,

I wonder when they will bring out their 3rd qtr results, its due already.

Lets see how far it will free fall -

I have the same figure.

For those planning to re-enter insurance stocks, Unic may be the first candidate if the price drops further.

The price is still on free fall and the projected PE is now around 16 and the lowest in the sector.

chaj:
Sovereign Trust Insurance gets NSE nod to list 1 billion additional shares. offered for sale during the last recapitalisation exercise,

sorry can't seem to copy the link from www.proshareng.com

GURUS, what's the implication of this upcoming dilution of shares? Reduced EPS and possible fall in share price i guess ?

Is it advisable to sell now? I've made a gross gain of 23% on it as at today.

Thanks

I already had this additional listing of 1B factored into my calculations for adjusted PE/EPS since this was known earlier only that the listing is just taking place. The projected PE is around 36 so I will consider the current price expensive. Selling is not a bad idea especially since you already made some gains.

Just take note that the stock gained almost 5% today if you want to play on the sentiments of the market for a couple more days but this should be on your sell list.

TS was lifted on International Breweries today and it maxed 5% open to close but miserable volume of 15,100!!!

RoughCut:
and i found another candidate RedStar express at a forward PE of 11.7 but the stock is not liquid at all!

Can anyone validate these forward PE's?? Just for the records. I currently have no interest in the stocks due to liquidity status.

1. Presco -  12.85, Outstanding shares - 0.5B

2. Aluminium Extrusion -  10.41,  Outstanding shares - 0.22B

shigidi:
@ stanchuks, BETA GLASS has good fundamentals, a forward pe of 9 is the best u can get right now. i couldnt get any today as well but still hoping sha.
it should hit 20 naira by march next year.

@ stanchuks, I think you were lucky to get. Though at a price relatively high for today's price, I think at that price it is still at a discount. There was an usual volume of over 2M that was traded on Friday. My surprise was that there was so much being offered and even more surprised that so much was sold.

I got some last week too but was unable to get anymore today. Today, just over 20K units were traded  . Maybe there weren't high enough bids. Frankly I hope the price even drops further for now.

FatherOF2:
Oga upward me no be master.No one is a master.The masters are still the real stockbrokers with 20years experience.
I have to disappoint you on the e-mail thing.

@some

Don't be sentimental about any stock (PAPA of MD get this or that).The stock does not know you're buying it.
You'll be surprised how people react once they hear higher profits. Take advantage of that reaction and take your quick 25-30%.
At least FCMB did beta than GT (Growth wise) and GT is still rising.If they declared 200% increase in profits won't you call EFCC to investigate.Just
praise their 139% increase and not " FCMB could have done better".

Analyzing for speculators does not prevent objective analysis. I have no problem with your speculative analysis but it is not everyone here that is a speculative investor.

I do not have to praise an increase that is below my expectations. Like I said, the market may reactive positively, but we need to share anlaysis that will prevent us from herding with the sheep.

RoughCut:
That business with CSL just put me off right away_{the MD's papa owns CSL so no surprises there} and i think the projection for '08 PAT is optimistic the half-year PAT for '08 is N5.34B so where are they going to get the N5B to make up the N15B projected for full-year PAT? The fact of the matter is that FCMB is still a ~ N10B PAT bank so like the Dragons in Dragons Den_{anybody watching Dragons' Den?} would say I'M OUT!

Just my thought about FCMB.

That the MDs papa owns CSL is no surprise. He started FCMB (then First City Merchant Bank) and I believe still owns the bank.

upward:
Hello people, take a look at this news.you can make something outa it:


         EKOCORP PLC UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
 2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
 N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 0.406  0.353  0.053 15.01
PBT 0.089  0.110  -0.021 -19.09
TAXATION 0.009 -0.011  0.002 -18.18
PAT 0.080   0.099  -0.019 -19.19
   
   
        FCMB PLC HALF YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31 OCTOBER 2007
 2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
 N'b N'b N'b %
GROSS EARNINGS 21.870     10.880  10.990 101.01
PBT 6.763      2.822  3.941 139.65
TAXATION 1.420    -0.592  -0.828 -139.86
PAT 5.343     2.230  3.113 139.60
   
   
         RED STAR EXPRESS PLC HALF YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
 2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
 N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 1.585    1.338  0.247 18.46
PBT 0.212      0.193  0.019 9.84
TAXATION 0.064 -   0.058  -0.006 -10.34
PAT 0.148      0.135  0.013 9.63

I think FCMB could have done better. Agreed that PAT has grown by 139% YOY but this has already been reflected in the current price. Though the market may react positively,  I don't consider this result beyond expectation. In fact the projected adjusted PE still remains the same around 28 which is on the high end (I have factotored in possible 25% oversubscription).

Ekocorp's result is okay. Forward PE is now 17 which I think is currently the best in the sector at least for the companies I have data on which are all the main ones.

Red Star express is the bomb. Projected PE is 11.7 with earnings yield of almost 9%.  I'm going out for this one. The PO will have a high risk of dilution because bonus shares may be declared and new shares may not qualify. I hope not though.

oawele:
@EMMAACHILE and pumping777.
please, i need a site or place where i can get past and present finiacial statements of companies (audited and unaudited).
i need to start playing with numbers and practice what i have leanrt so far in this forum to bear (sorry bull) .
meanwhile EMMAACHILE i am intrested in your investment club when next are you guys having a meeting, i need to plan to attend.

Try these resources.

1. http://www.gticapitalltd.com/report.php. This has results from multiple companies over multiple years.

You will find many results for 2005 and 2006 but also many for different quarters in 2007.

2. http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news_category.php?id=16
Just walk back through the pages from latest results to older ones.

3. http://www.financialnigeria.com/MARKETS/stock/stock_list.aspx
Click the company of interest and in some cases you will find the latest result on the right hand side under SEC filings.
As an example Beta Glass --

http://www.financialnigeria.com/MARKETS/stock/stock_analysis_quote.aspx?symbol=BETAGLAS

http://www.financialnigeria.com/MARKETS/stock/Download.aspx?filename=BETAGLAS_SECFilings_15.pdf


4. http://www.nigerianinvestments.com/story.php?id=44. Results from multiple companies for different quarters in the current year.

toyibanj:
LIVESTOCK FEEDS PLC.

Year end of Livestock is march 2007. Does any one have any quarterly results for 2008? Are they out of the woods yet? There's been a steady increase in share price in the last few days.

LIVESTOCK FEEDS PLC. UNAUDITED HALF-YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30TH SEPT, 2007 
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 0.452 0.268 0.184 68.66
PBT 0.026 0.009 0.017 188.89
TAXATION -2.35 -   -2.35
PAT 0.024 0.009 0.015 166.67

Livestock stock price was moving up even after disastrous results. There is no logic to the movement of this stock. The expansion plans came up when they did the rights offer about a year ago. We have not seen any action yet and this is being touted again at the AGM. Based on last FY results and Q-1 results, the company was using exceptional items to boost PAT.

PE ratio is about 38 right now and except there is real expansion in the horizon, I think it is too early to enter now if at all.

pangolo:
Futureview has Crusader's outstanding shares @ 1,600,594,000 while Nigerian Securities has it at 3,437,040,803. Which is more accurate generally?

I have 3.437B.

cutebabe:
The one you folks use in number crunching or was it Emachille offering?

Not sure now. It was mentioned like 12 pages back

Emachille if it's you, hook me up please.

Thx

I don't use anyone's spreadsheet for my analysis. I only try to validate certain data like results and outstanding shares from others on this thread. I am still developing my own excel sheet but the analysis is already done where I have current data.

cutebabe:
@Pumping not surewhether tis you who has the spreadsheet or Emachille. I need the spreadsheet to start number crunching. Please send to dollypno1(at)gmail.com.
Thx

Spreadsheet Which one?

Roland E:
TO GEES. & PUMPPING777. YOUR ADVICE TO ME NOT TO WASTE
MY MONEY ON UNITED NIGERIA TEXTILES WAS GREAT.
I WILL STAY ABSOLUTE CLEAR.
WE GUYS IN UNITED KINGDON JUST WORK, WORK, WORK.
NOT VERY CURRENT WITH THE FINANCIAL NEWS LIKE You GUYS AT HOME.
PLEASE CAN SOMEBODY RECOMMEND PROFITABLE STOCK FOR ME TO BUY INSTEAD.
LIVESTOCKS, NIG GERMAN OR MORISON (UNDER HEALTHCARE) OR CAPITAL OIL.
GOD BLESS You ALL.

On ground ke?? Your brother dey here for Philly very far from the ground.

toyibanj:
@ Pumping
I already have NGC bought at around 16 .Do you think entering for more at today's price is wise? Also concerning C&I leasing ,excellent growth. I was actually waiting till next year to buy some. What do you think?

If you are looking long term you can re-join the train now, otherwise I think the party is over. The stock is hovering around what I think is the fair value now. NGC stock is also a volatile stock so I won't be surprised if you can enter at a lower price due to sudden depression in price before end of the year.

For CILeasing, I am hoping next month will provide another opportunity to buy. Anytime I can get at N5 or below, I will enter again. I sold all the units I bought 2 weeks ago today as I could not help locking in the profit. I hope I won't regret it but most likely, whatever the case, I will re-enter in late December. The train may leave earlier than expected in the new year and I just hating chasing stocks.

This is the data I have based on linear projection of half year PAT of 119.5M from turnover of 1.36B.

NIGERIA-GERMAN CHEMICALS PLC

Price          Outst. Share                      Proj PAT                   PE
25.35        0.15               0.24         16.31

Roland E:
[color=#006600]HELLO TO MY FELLOW NAIRALANDERS,
TEMMIE10. WANAJO, PUMPING777 ETC,
PLEASE I WANTED TO BUY 100,000 UNITS OF "UNITED
NIGERIA TEXTILE", UNTL. NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.
THE PRICE HAS DROPPED TO MERE N1.51k TODAY PRICE.
6 MONTHS AGO IT WAS ABOUT N6. MAY ALMIGHTY GOD
REWARD You GUYS ENDLESSLY.

I believe UNTL announced shut down around October this year. Did you hear of a buyout and revamping of the company

Forget that the stock price turned around around N1 and has consistently risen now to N1.50. The interest could be because of the "low" nominal price.

yodiyokun:
There is no doubt about it - They make money.

However "cooking books" is relative.  The majority of the cooking has to do with loan portfolio. Enough recycling of non performing loans and repackaging - some taken off the books completely. This is not creative accounting - it is corporate fraud!.

Most people argue about this point relentlessly , I know what I have seen with my naked eyes . I know what I know - chikena.

My reply was actually on a lighter note. I do agree with you that there is some genius accounting in the banking industry and like you said it does not stop us from making money.

yodiyokun:
Anyone know what is driving Law and Union through the roof?

The market did not react when they released their 3rd Quarter result and it was quite good.

So why react now? They have been on full 5% in the last 3 days!!.

I wonder if it will still go back to the days of 3.19?

Lawunion has actually done app. 5% each day for the last 7 trading days. I bought at N3.11 last week Wednesday(pure luck becuase I had been waiting on the order for almost 2 weeks but it never dropped to my bid price) and it is  N4.41 today. A gain of over 40%. This has always been my favourite insurance stock because it has much lower volatility.

I think the shareholding structure limits the rate of profit taking thereby reducing volatility.

Before the last PO, 63% of Lawunion belonged to Skye Bank, Consolidated Discounts Ltd and Swede Control intertek. I don't know what the figures are now but I will expect something similar.

I feel we won't see N3.31 for Lawunion again except for some government policy reversal that affects the insurance industry or they come out with a disastrous result.

Even if the banks are cooking the books, it can only be half cooked because they pay out huge cash dividends so there is some real profit cooking there.

youngdoc:
@ Wanajo
Easimoni
Father of 2

Bagco or PHB with a time frame of 2009?

Tonyjon suggests PHB but am still mulling my options. I don't want to buy both. majority wins.
Please reply soonest. Thanks

Bank PHB.

FatherOF2:
@ Those who asked,

I hear we now have a new woman speaker called Patricia Etteh and she's doing quite well. Is she?.

Yes o. So well that she is being considered for Senate president  

These are the numbers for CILEASING using 1.6B outstanding shares.

                              Price      Out Shares             Proj PAT        PE

C & I LEASING PLC N5.80 1.6B           0.37B 24.90


PO sometime June 2006 for 1.4B shares - Around 75% subscribed according to SEC website.

There is some contention that the figure should be 1.35B but I can't validate this.

shigidi:
@ pumping777, if ure out there, i was unable to get beta glass today and it has entered 14 naira. will try to get in under 14.5 if i can.
yhis market is frustrating for buyers oooooooooooooooooooo

I got Beta for a high price of N14 yesterday. I plan to be patient. I think it's going to take a while to exit.

Got Access yesterday at N19.20 though and hoping the result comes out positive. These are outside my usual strategy but let's see what happens.

Outside these I think I'm done buying for the year except something drastic comes up.

upward:
CONTINENTAL REINSURANCE PLC UNAUDITED HALF YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 JUNE 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 1.179 1.286 -0.107 -8.32
PBT 0.665 0.424 0.241 56.84
TAXATION 0.166 - 0.106 -0.060 -56.60
PAT 0.499 0.318 0.181 56.92


UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 26.510 16.934 9.576 56.55
PBT 2.292 - 2.026 4.318 213.13
TAXATION 0.768 0.638 -1.406 -220.38
PAT 1.524 - 1.388 2.912 209.80
EXTRA ORDINARY ITEMS -0.405 - 0.243 -0.162 -66.67
PAT & EXTRA ORDINARY ITEMS 1.119 - 1.631 2.750 168.61


ACADEMY PRESS PLC UNAUDITED HALF YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 0.618 0.639 -0.021 -3.29
PBT 0.036 0.076 -0.040 -52.63
TAXATION 0.011 - 0.023 0.012 -52.17
PAT 0.025 0.053 -0.028 -52.83

Thanks. This is fast. You dey work for floor

toyibanj:
@ Everyone
Has anyone considered UBN with it's proj EPS of 2.59 and PE of 15.86 following release of UBN's 1/2 year result. This looks to me like the best in the industry considering <10B outstanding shares. Will welcome comments.

If you add the bonus shares, UBNs' forward PE should be in the region of 17.63 based on the half year result. True, it has the lowest forward PE in banking right now outside Wema, but many folks are not comfortable with the growth prospects. Of course not that UBN is not growing but maybe not at the expected rate. UBN seems to be lagging behind other first tier banks.

yodiyokun:
Yes I noticed Custodian & Allied Insurance.

Their Result was quite good and forward pe is 16.6 ,

@ pumping is that right?

Unfortunately I do not have any of the shares.

I  have 17.39 based on 4B outstanding shares and Q-3 PAT of 0.6B.

yodiyokun:
@eas
@easimoni, did you confirm this?

This is very serious, so Law Union goes to the top of the pack quickly.

I am out as well. This is not funny at all.

Actually the unlikely candidate with the best PE in insurance now is Custodian and Allied Insurance!!!

Followed closely by Unic and Lawunion but I don't know if anyone is still looking now.

aktopgun:
anyone got any ideas or do we just sit on cash till 1q 2008?

Yes for me. I have decided to make November my Fiscal Year End