₦airaland Forum

[/quote][quote author=toyibanj link=topic=31554.msg1693976#msg1693976 date=1195427085]@Pumping777
Please explain how you came about 14.1B shares. The present outstanding shares is a mystery. On nigeriansecurities 11.4B,IBTC 8B, meristem 6.4B. How can we analyse stocks when we don't have all the info. Welcome to the NSE.
One thing we know for sure is they applied for 5B(assuming 25% oversubscription) budget 6.25B.
Inputs welcome.

You can always analyze any stock if you take time to get the facts (or ask your stockbroker in a nice way ). The NSE is not always that bad. In this case, we have all the info we need and more.

14.1B is projected PAT and not outstanding shares. The number of outstanding shares I am using is 14.29B after factoring in 25% over-subscription.

Really, there was nothing mysterious about the outstanding shares of Bank PHB. They gave bonus of 1 for 4 this year and before that the number of shares outstanding was 6.435B. You can do the numbers.

You see, the numbers you gave above of 8B and 6.4B are both correct. Just at different times. One before bonus scrips and the other one after. I've made mistakes with outstanding number of shares with many stocks, but Bank PHB was never an issue.

Anyway, I circulated the prospectus on this thread. If you go back in the thread you will find it. That is what I used for the analysis. Find an extract below from the prospectus.
---------
NOTE
Earnings per share (fully diluted) are based on 13,043,782,000 ordinary shares of
50k each in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Earnings per share (weighted) are based on
9,739,403,000 weighted ordinary shares of 50k each in 2008 and 13,043,782,000
ordinary shares of 50k each being post offer shares expected to be in issue) in 2009
and 2010. Dividends per share are based on 13,043,782,000 ordinary shares of 50k
each in 2008, 2009 and 2010.
------

Fidelity Bank PO

I know the general consensus is that this not a good deal at least in the short term but after the release of the last FY results, I think we need to look at this from another perspective. I was expecting that Fidelity was going to give bonus for the last FY results but this did not happen. Only dividends. It means that the 33% discount here is for real.

I know it still does not make sense but let me go further. Fidelity is projecting a PAT of 11B for FY ending June 30th. Fidelity is already on track for 10.6B. Based on over subscription the PE ratio at current earnings level is 18.

If anyone has the patience to wait for a year, I will expect a profit margin of at least 50%. In other words, worst scenario, you sell Fidelity for N12 this time next year. I expect Fidelity price to drop after TS is lifted, but what I mean is that in a year's time, the price will not be less than N12.

Bank PHB PO

I think short term or long term this is actually a good deal. That it is a good deal long term is not so debatable so I only want to review the short term potential.

My analysis is taking care of oversubscription, so the outstanding shares I'm working with is 14.29B. The prospectus is projecting a PAT of 16.1B for FY ending June 2008. Platinum is already on track for 14.1B at current levels so I think achieving 16.1 with the additional capital injection is practical.

One very good point is that new shares are entitled to dividends (or bonus but I don't expect any bonus) for FY ending June 2008 so the 33% discount is for real.

At the offer price of N17, the adjusted PE (assuming 25% oversubscription) is around 17. If you have at least 9 months to spare I think one can expect conservatively at least 50% returns on this one.

Caution. UNIC did not make a loss.

These are UNIC's results. It was already posted on this thread last week.

--------------------

UNIC INSURANCE PLC UNAUDITED SECOND QUARTER RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 JUN 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 1.065 0.66 0.405 61.36
PBT 0.3 0.241 0.059 24.48
TAXATION -0.05 -0.05 0 0
PAT 0.251 0.191 0.06 31.41

UNIC INSURANCE PLC AUDITED YEAR-END RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31  DEC 2006
2006 2005 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 1.873 1.35 0.523 38.74
PBT 0.318 0.311 0.007 2.25
TAXATION -0.058 -0.02 -0.038 -190
PAT 0.36 0.291 0.069 23.71
PROPOSED DIVIDEND 5K
CLOSURE DATE 19TH NOV, 2007
PAYMENT DATE 17TH DEC, 2007

--------------------

texas543:
Not sure, but i was reading it somewhere that u can have the two the accounts linked together at CSCS, I think you have to subscribe for that. Let the Gurus come and chip in. You can move your account to one of them when u are done with your "stunt" .

These are from the FAQ section of CSCS trade alerts.
-------------------
I have several CSCS account numbers and one Clearing House number, how many times do I subscribe?

Provided you have one Clearing House number, despite your CSC account numbers, you only subscribe once.

-----------------

I have several CSCS account numbers and several Clearing House numbers, how many times do I subscribe?

Though it is recognized that some clients have two or more Clearing House numbers for reasons best known to them, It is advisable to consolidate accounts into one Clearing House Number because the number of Clearing House Numbers you have would mean the number of times you need to subscribe.

-------------

I understand that the clearing house number is the unique number that CSCS uses for identification. Multiple CSCS numbers can be linked to one clearing house number.

kingrd:
My broker says I should buy UBA now. Any contrary/ supporting opinions out there?

What reason did he give you for buying now Does he/she have insider jist

springss:
Folks, the broker's commission is negotiable. The NSE, CSCS, VAT, etc are fixed. I currently pay 1.83% (Buy-side) and 2.17% (sell-side) inclusive of broker's commission. I did not know, I could negotiate this until a year ago. My broker's commission used to be 2.75% but I negotiated it down to 1%. This is usually posible if your total portfpossible over =N=5 MM. Most stock brokers insist on having a minimum of =N=10MM before they reduce your commission to 1%. I use FSDH Securities. You can use this information to renegotiate if you are paying too much.

Thanks for this hot tip. I had no clue. Every little % counts in this game

Prospectus

FTN COCOA PROCESSORS LIMITED

Offer for Subscription
By
Private Placement

http://us.f13.yahoofs.com/bc/473db9b4_a39e/bc/My+Documents/FTN%2bPLACEMENT%2bMEMORANDUM-%2bDRAFT%2bCOPY.pdf?bfH6bPHBRMqQxo5b

It appears UBN finally lost steam. Closed at N50.33 today.

hispy99:
GUINNESS: 1ST QUARTER RESULT ENDED SEPT 30, 2007.

1ST QUARTER RESULT ENDED SEPT 30, 2007.

TURNOVER 2007 =N=13.65B 2006 =N=11.99B

PBT 2007 =N=1.90B 2006 =N=2.40B

TAXATION 2007 (=N=609.76M) 2006 (=N=768.58M)

PAT 2007 =N=1.29B 2006 =N=1.63B.

Guinness dropped profits

Some additional sites as requested

http://www.financialnigeria.com/MARKETS/Stock/stock_list.aspx

http://leadcapitalng.com/resources/archives.asp

barge:
@ Pumping
thanks for all the good work.Na fight , i send you mail as per the PHB prospectus , i no see nada , i beg reply . Hope you had i good flight.

gAST TO GO , I have a simulated exam on sat.This CFA no easy o ! omo wase ori ise .

Not sure what your email addy is. The last one I sent is to "Bajo". I don't know if that is yourself.

kpineo:
According to the NigerianSecurities website UNIC has a proj PE of 19.88, while MBenefit has 18.33 and the industry average is 21.94, so y all the interest in UNIC and not MBenefit. Also MBenefit own 25% of Abbey mortgages which is a player in the next emerging sector in the nigeria economy. people what am i missing before hard earned funds disappear right before my very eyes.

Mutual benefits is not so attractive based on fundamentals. These is what I have for them based on Q-2 PAT of 450M. Projected PE is 20.38. However, MB is generally expected to exceed projections but I don't know what the basis of that is.

MUTUAL BENEFITS ASSURANCE PLC
                                                                Price  = 3.10      
Out. Share  = 5.91B
                     Proj PAT = 0.9B   
Projected PE = 20.38

wanaj0:
Thought result was part of the fundamentals!!!!!

On what basis will you consider a stock to be low if not based on the EPS/ PE? Those are forecasted/estimated based on interim or final results.

I think you misunderstand me.

I can only use the interim result that has been released to predict the next interim or full year result. This is what I am saying. I don't have to wait for the future t result to be declared before I take position. So I can only assess UNIC based on the Q-2 result they have so far declared. I can use this to predict Q-3 or full year. If there is a Q-3 outstanding it is immaterial. I don't have to wait forthis Q-3 result to take position. By then, the cat will be out of the bag.

@no_shaking

Back to UNIC. You see, taking advantage of interim or full year results is one thing and taking advantage of price is another.

Based on UNIC Q-1 result alone I felt a price of N2.35 was too low for the stock so I already took position then at N2.40. If Unic comes out with an even better Q-3 result all the better. Maybe by then UNIC will be N5 . I will still be in the game. I don't like chasing a stock after the good results are released and everyone is doing the same.

This is why I prefer to use fundamentals as against aniticipating good interim or final year results. See where it got me with Oceanic

wanaj0:
Pumping, while I agree that a Q3 result evokes more confidence, be sure that you understand the company! Presco's 6months PAT result sometimes is more than the full year! In the days of the old UBA, some funny provisions just surfaced at end year that will almost wipe off the whole profit. Also, remember First Bank making N10bn provision in the last quarter for the IIL/NITEL deal.

As a rule I also check out the trend of quarterly earnings for a couple of years back. Right now because of the growth rate of many Naija companies, each subsequent quarter even in the same fiscal year is better than the last. This of course is not the case for all companies.

easimoni:
Notes from my S. Sheet regarding Law Union Shares:
1.8B shares PO was oversubscribed to 135.4% =2.437 B shares. Previously 1B. Total now 3.437B. NSE listed 0.637B supplementary allotment for oversubscription on Oct 3 07

I'll check this out. I thought I had added this already and I also got 3.1 in the famous easimoni excel sheet but the difference is not so great anyway. Even with this adjustment, Lawunion today has a projected PE of 15.84 and Unic has a projected PE of 16.26.

easimoni, u dey send updated version of the excel sheet to your buddies se??  

Catch you all later. I've almost missed my flight.

Yes, Aiico is on TS. You will find the details in this thread somewhere regarding the PO price.

yodiyokun:
@Pumping what is your basis for Lawunions Full yr PAT, I used the 3rd quater and multiplied by 1.25, that gives around 671.2 and I have  3.5B has outstanding shares?

Let me know your own figures.


At UNIC's current price, it may not be better, I am tired of updating my spreadsheet at new prices,   lets crunch away

Normally, you should multipley Q-3 by 4 and divide by 3. What you have done in effect is to multiply by 5 and divide by 4. Of course this can be correct if you think they make less in the last quarter.

I have 3.1B outstanding for Lawunion. I could be wrong on that one but I hope I'm not!!! I included the oversubscribed shares for the last PO.

Let me tell you how I update my spreadsheet by just copying and pasting one colunmn. I use the spreadsheet from one of the brokers that you get and then on a daily basis I just copy the entire column of daily prices to my own spreadsheet. Since I have exactly the same order everything just falls into place. Less than 30 seconds!

no_shaking:
UNIC only released their H2 Report, so expect their Q3 report by december, or at least long before Law & Union releases their FY 2007 report. Note both companies have dec as their yr end!

The point is that a company that has released a Q-3 result is more likely to meet my projection for the full year. The closer to the end of the year the better.

aktopgun:
@ pumping

i've got 805M for lawunion and 409M for unic

where is your data from, mine is Nigeria sec.com, is theirs wrong do u think?

do u do your projections yourself?

Yes, I do my projections myself based on the latest released result. I will not say their data is wrong. It depends on the basis they are using. In many cases we are in agreement. What I noticed about Nigeriansecurities also is that it sometimes takes time to update the information. As an example they have not updated the projection for Evans Medical after the poor Q-2 results.

aktopgun:
@ pumping

i've got 805M for lawunion and 409M for unic

where is your data from, mine is Nigeria sec.com, is theirs wrong do u think?

do u do your projections yourself?

Yes, I do my projections myself based on the latest released result. I will not say their data is wrong. It depends on the basis they are using. In many cases we are in agreement. What I noticed about Nigeriansecurities also is that it sometimes takes time to update the information. As an example they have not updated the projection for Evans Medical after the poor Q-2 results.

no_shaking:
(Ta
Seconded (technicals wise)!! Crusader, Unic then Law & Union for now. Crusader & Unic are yet to release their Q3 reports, whilst Law & Union already did. Short term traders can position themselves now before the release of these Q3 reports. For Law & Union, the FY 2007 (next report due) should take about 3 months after yr end before its release (around Apr 08).

So, first thing first, make u chop breakfast first, before eating lunch (if u get my drift)

UNIC just released results this week or last so we have something fresh from them. As at yesterday Unic's forward PE is over 15.

I bought Unic about 3 weeks ago at N2.40 and then I can agree that it was hotter than Lawunion. But now the price is N3.15 so I'm not so convinced.

I have a projected PAT of 720M for Lawunion and 500M for Unic. If my numbers are right, the projected PE for Lawunion as at yesterday was less than 14. Only Crusader beats this at the moment.

Thanks Wanaj0. It's always great to have someone lift up the red flag in the midst of all the excitement.

For Fidelity, I can't think of any other reason for extension except that the target was not met and I'm also still very wary of their results.

I really missed today. In between flights so I'm just playing catch up at the airport. The market is so "blue" today!!! Insurance of course 100% but all other sectors too.

I think we have to establish one behaviour now after seeing Wema and UBN.

After delayed end of year results that are not too good, wait in case of a mouth watering interim result. I predicted 2 days ago after seeing the move in UBN that it must be an interim result known to the insiders and low and behold.

Wow. 3 pages and still reading. Na wa. So much can happen in one day.

I wouldn't swap Lawunion for UNIC. I think the numbers favour Lawunion.

This is for real.

http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=3189

Funds in escrow to be released today.

toyibanj:
Pumping 777
UBN is already 50 and still on bid.
Do you have any analysis on C&I leasing.
cheers

The movement of UBN is not due to the impending bonus and dividends. We'll soon know.

C&I Leasing - My analysis is not readily available right now but I recall C&I Leasing is a buy for me with a target price of around N5.

EMMAACHILE:
a friend normally sends it to me from fidelity union securities
site: www.fidelityunionsecng.com

Is it on the website too?

toyibanj:
God bless you for this link. The insurance sector is about to take off.

If na boat, I dey there.

If na ship, I'm on board.

If na plane, I dey for cockpit

hispy99:
Nigeria forces through reform of insurance sector?

Govt takes over NICON and Nigeria RE

Is this story true??

http://www.nigeriansecurities.com/shownews.php?url=http://www.businessinsurance.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?newsId=11603#Below

We can say it will only be a matter of timing. This will definitely be the end result. 2 companies will not hold the insurance sector to ransome. If it has happened yet I don't know but there is not other eventual outcome I can think of.