₦airaland Forum

I will definitely hope so. Like I said, I don't even want to suggest that this happened to Crusader.

yodiyokun:
The fsdh report I get everyday and that I am looking at now has all insurance companies including Crusader with YR end of December except for OASIS, Sovereign, and Equity Ass that is Blank.

I get mine daily too so I guess we get different versions.

aktopgun:
sorry
if there half year was 593.2 and just suppose this is a 3rd Q result at 576M
THAT WOULD MEAN THEY ARE LOSING MONEY WOULDN'T IT

Not that I agree with this results yet but with insurance making a quarterly loss takes only being hit by a major claim. Other companies will consider something similar to be an "extraordinary item".

I'm not saying this is what happened to Crusader. Just highlighting the risky nature of the insurance business.

yodiyokun:
Every where it is stated DEC Yr end , FSDH, Zenith, cashcraft, nigeriansecurities

Not for FSDH.

CRUSADER INSURANCE PLC
9 months, Sep. 2006 1,814.00 1,093.00

Result for Crusader Insurance

Meristem - Q-3 2007
FSDH       - Q-3 2006
NSE Pro   - FY 2007

NSE Pro reports Crusader's result as Year End 2007!!! I won't agree with this one.

yodiyokun:
What sgoing on with Crusader? Need to check proshare for the details?

as per Cadbury, remember they had a fraud issue last year and the share prices took a serious hit.

Everyone has been waiting for the results to actually see how bad things are. From the look of it they have tidied up their stuff and made profit so far this year . Kudos to them.

Based on the 3rd quarter result, buying at N33 is a cheap price - if you get it !!!

Maybe I'm not looking at this well.

From what I see they have not made any profit this year. Cadbury only managed to reduce the amount of loss in Q3 compared to the other 2 quarters. However, I think they still made of loss of an additional 480M PAT in Q3.

Something strange here. FSDH reported this result as "9 months, Sep. 2006".

Company and Result Turnover (Nm) Turnover* (Nm)
CRUSADER INSURANCE PLC
9 months, Sep. 2006 1,814.00 1,093.00

What's going on?

Crusaders' result is for Q-3.

CRUSADER INSURANCE PLC
UNAUDITED Q-3 RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2007
PERIOD 2007 2006 ABSOLUTE CHANGE %CHANGE
GROSS PREMIUM (N'b) 1.81 1.09 0.72 66.0%
PBT (N'm) 626.50 289.35 337.16 116.5%
TAXATION (N'm) 50.50 28.31 22.18 78.4%
PAT (N'm) 576.01 261.03 314.97 120.7%
* Means Decrease & * Means Increase
Net Profit Margin 31.75% 23.88% 7.9% 33.0%

Forward PAT is looking more like 23 now. Strangest part is that HY PAT was 0.593B. Really confusing.

FatherOF2:
Lower Profits from Mutual Benefits doesn't look excellent to me.
When there was no money they did better,now they have money they're declaring lower results.
It will take a hit for that as evidenced by todays slight drop.
Good one Costain.Your rights will be fully taken.

My bad!!! I exchanged the PAT for 2006 with that for 2007. Poor result. Will likely not meet anticipated IB Naira PAT.

E

upward:
Please find below company results released today on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange



CONSTAIN (WEST AFRICA) PLC UNAUDITED HALF YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 1.497 1.457 0.040 2.75
PBT 0.138 0.071 0.067 94.37
TAXATION 0.008 - 0.004 -0.004 -100.00
PAT 0.130 0.067 0.063 94.03


MUTUAL BENEFIT ASSURANCE PLC UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
GROSS PREMIUM 1.709 1.436 0.273 19.01
PBT 0.729 0.886 -0.157 -17.72
TAXATION 0.073 - 0.019 -0.054 -284.21
PAT 0.656 0.867 -0.211 -24.34


I got this from Zenith securities, please gurus in the house, can you help us crunch the figures

Excellent results from Mutual Benefits!!! Clearly exceeded expectations. On course for PAT well over 1B Naira.

Costain is in on course to meet target. Good result but not beyond what was expected. I need to get my hands on the PO prospectus. I suspect it will be very interesting.

kpineo:
I know gurus on this site are not lovers of NASCON, but am i the only one to notice it has been appreciating for the past 4 days. is there some news make the rounds or something. I have been holding on since the Dangote one day extravaganza and thinking of pulling out now sine my loss position has been reduced. comments please.

This is the jist around Nascon.

Nascon - Rebranding and Product diversification.

No details though.

FatherOF2:
Hmmmmmmmmm,if this is live from the floor.I seriously suspect better news is coming out very soon.That stock has already bottomed out.
Wema strategy may be at play here.Give them the bad news first.I may just take position by friday.The bad news could be over.Deals on that stock were up on Tuesday.
Lets see.

I am smelling the same rat with Cadbury. If deals are up even with the "bad" results, the smell of the rat is even stronger.

shigidi:
@ pumping777, good point on insurance coys but at 6 naira, crusader will have a forward pe of 16. results are not expected till march.
dangsugar currently has forward pe of 13.5, beta glass is 10, longman is 12. so u can see there will be better buys.

I will still expect the support of a higher PE in insurance companies due to the higher growth potential.

oawele:
@ easimoni

i learnt about trade points from this site

http://www.trw-stockbrokers.com/trading%20points/features.aspx

i tried downloading the software and i guess it has been moved or removed.

@all
how do i add quotes from previous comment to my new comments?

does any one have more infor on trade points? i like the software.

Interesting thing is that when you try to quote a particular post, after you click reply, you may not see the post if it is on the next page or let's just say far back.

One way around this is to search for the user, "show last posts of this person" and then quote the relevant post.

shigidi:
@ pumping777, i have not entered beta glass yet, its not liquid and thats my problem, i wish to enter access and will hope to enter beta glass ASAP. if crusader hits 6, i am selling, there is no fundamental attahment to this movement northward.
your eps for dang sugar looks accurate but i am of the view that they hi most profit in Q4 so that 2.65 might be just right( i pray so). the moment i enter beta glass i will let u know/

I tried entering Access yesterday @19 but shot too low for the offers today. I will enter Beta tomorrow with low volume. Yet to make up my mind on Access if I should up my bid.  if I do, I hope they are able to post a half year PAT of at least 6.5B. That should make it worthwhile.

I entered Dangote about a week ago for around N34 but not very decent volume.

As much as I want to sit down and look I'm just so restless. I will sell most of any insurance stock that crosses a healthy PE _{except my Lawunion}. Unic and Crusader should be the last ones standing. Unic because of the mark down yesterday that prevented the 5% gain. At the end of this week even if the 5% gain continues, both will still have forward PE less than 20.

shigidi:
@ easimoni, if youre out there, na wa for this bull run  ooooooooo.
can't find anything to enter.
what is your forecast eps for dangote sugar. ibtc puts at 2.65, so at a pe of 17-18, it should be at least 45naira, whats your eps because i need to compare. this is the only stock i have been able to enter so far.
which stocks are u looking at

I have Dangote's eps as 2.38 with PE of 15.12.

Did you enter Beta Glass??

To comment on a discussion from yesterday. I think Cashcraft is usually the first to deliver the closing prices for the day. Usually 30 minutes after the markets close. This is the case most of the time.

FatherOF2:
My dear friend. This is one observation on this thread. Try and learn to fish for yourself.Don't collect fish everyday.If you have been reading this thread from the start,you will know that one of the first principles of stock trading is setting goals for your self.Exit and entry points.
Now what are your goals?.You have to be brave on your own.Read books and learn to take decisions on your own.
Take stock trading with the seriousness of a bull.
Read financial Newspapers,
Read Punch,Thisday,Financial Standard(Backpage) on sundays.
The writings and signs are written all over them.
Go to Proshare and Buy this Book (HOW TO BUY AND SELL SHARES IN NIGERIA).You'll learn a lot.
I started trading with N700000 in 04' with National oil (Now CONOIL).I learnt on my own very very fast.Now i'm worth a hefty 8 figures(can't mention).
If you want to keep your crusader(longterm) keep it,also if you want to sell by friday and move to Access or Diamond or 1st Bank(Shortterm) do so.
Just be sure that you determine and stick to your strategy(LONG OR SHORT).Once the objective is achieved, move out and move on.
Study Study Study.
Takecare.

@harrisoft
Now you have a plan and this is a really good plan.

You can think also of working both sides. Sell some now for quick profit and keep the rest for longer term. The best is yet to come for insurance stocks. Personally for now, I think Crusader should not be sold below N6.

walcolm:
Hi ALL,

does anybody have d link to Fidson Healthcare PP? i asked the house about Universal insurance PP but i have nto received any response

thanx in advance

The research brief from Meristem.

EMMAACHILE:
There are some stocks which are undervalued but not recommended since they are not liquid.
Eg beta glass, longman, Nigeria German, chellarams, Berger paints, etc
These stocks are so liquid as I have learnt some lessons from these kinds of stocks.
I remember when I was buying my Berger paints in June then, it took more than 12 deals to purchase about 200k units.
Just all d units of Berger yesterday and it took 3 deals at an average of 7.80 naira. Imagine holding a million units and wanting to offload.your guess is good as mine
I Will be converting my cash to banks and some insurance so that I have rest of mind.
This is where d money is. Institutional investors all have holdings there.
Remember one of the rules of investing is put your money where institutional investors are putting theirs.

I don't think the stocks you have mentioned are so bad in terms of liquidity. I think there are much worse candidates on the exchange. The stocks you have mentioned above, and I will add ABC transport will make decent returns in the short term if you play the market well. You have to choose the right time to buy and sell. Buy when no one is interested and sell when everyone is. You have to be patient and you cannot afford to be greedy. No waiting for the peak. Try to sell while the price is still rising.

Of course you have to watch out for the volumes you deal with. It might not be a good idea to buy 1 million units of a stock that normally does a volume of 400K a day if you plan to bail out one time.

oawele:
@ all

i have some union bank shares, if i sell them tomorrow morning will i still be entitled to the dividend and bonus?

Yes. I am assuming you bought them more than 3 days ago.

@Shigidi - I've got the numbers for Beta glass now. Looks juicy with a forward PE of 9.3 based on half year results 

@shigidi

I don't have any numbers for Beta Glass. Can you share the latest interim results and confirm the outstanding shares?
Thanks.

shigidi:
@ easimoni, pumping777, i know the best thing to do with your money in this period, keep it!!!!!
there doesnt seem to be any good buy at these current prices, im loving access, diamond, dangote sugar and nigerian german but the entry prices are a bit off. BETA GLASS looks good though. i might enter that.

I share the same sentiments. My broker is just enjoying the cash in my portfolio which has grown to almost 20% of my portfolio. I will just siddon look. I don't want to make any costly mistakes during this bull run. I won't be greedy. The 80% in stocks is working well with this run  

Find attached the research brief for FIDSON HEALTHCARE LIMITED PP from Meristem.

husu:
Nahco is gaining seriously, is like i have just missed it.

This is a bulls market. Movements may mean nothing. Most could not have been predicted.

You think Nahco is a big deal?? Livestock Feeds has gained over 26% in the last 5 trading days. There.

toyibanj:
@ wanaj0,pumping, Easimoni,roughcut, yodiyokun

I'm trying to decide between Access and diamond at current prices. Both look good but this diamond gdr thing dey worry me after seeing what happened to GTB. Tending towards Access. Any inputs welcome. Perhaps technical analysts can help here.

From my calculations, I deduced that Diamond Banks' $500M GDR should dilute the shares by about 3.6B. I'll appreciate it if anyone can validate this.

With this the adjusted PE for Diamond is about 21 while that of Access is around 20 and we can say both have the same potential here.  For Diamond, the projected PAT is really almost a done deal.  The half year PAT is very much on course. I think Access has a more challenging task here. The Q-1 result looked so fantastic and one can only hope they will maintain the trend for the rest of the year. For this reason alone, I will choose Diamond over Access.

****** However, if you are looking very very short term, you may be better off with Access since Q-2 result is anticipated in the next couple of weeks and if expectations are met not to mention being exceeded, I will expect the stock to rally in the short term.

FatherOF2:
Very good PE.But its getting high now.Closed at N8 today. Entry price is N6.50 - N7

A N10 stock.Lets see how this week pans out.

I already bought at N6.60 and due to the appreciation I wanted to check if I still need to hold or sell after some more appreciation.

@yodiyokun - Right now I can't recall where I got the outstanding shares numbers from. Probably Meristem/NSE. Sometimes both are wrong.

You will find Berger's results here in the half year results block.

http://www.nigerianinvestments.com/story.php?id=44

Outstanding Shares: 0.22B
Projected PAT :0.13B
PE Ratio (yesterday) :13.66

Does anyone have numbers on Berger paints? The numbers I have are too good to be true,

damoche07:
Whats happening to this thread?

Its losing the serenity,smoothness and blend of ideas and information that has characterised it in recent times. I am not happy with this 25%,1%,bail out strategy,bear is going to eat u up by friday,the wise dog listens to the hunter's whistle etc. posts.Anybody else noticed it or i am the one that needs to check up myself?

You are not alone.