₦airaland Forum

pangolo:
My problem with Jim Ovia is that he is not prepping anyone for succession. If Zenith is to be a long term play for me then I am thinking ( what happens to Zenith and to my money if Jim the Dream suddenly has " Indian apple poisoning" ( like Abacha) With all the STIFF competition in the banking sector UBA or FBn would quickly capitalize on any weakness, I don't doubt profitability from Zenith but I don't see my money doubling like in PHB ( no N72 from Zenith while PHB could easily do N40).

I've heard this several times. How is everyone so sure that Zenith does not have a succession plan?? Do you think the man expect to live forever? He may exert a lot of influence but this is no longer a small company and it is public.

Succession planning as a company policy has been around for a few decades now. I don't see why Zenith Bank will be waiting for senior executives or managers to die before putting one in place. There must be Senior Managers or Executives that are being positioned to take over strategic positions.

I know this was seriously highlighted in 2006 but I don't expect that Management is to dumb not to have done anything about it.

EMMAACHILE:
If you have a year horizon, why not go for Bank PHB IPO or Zenith PO?
They will likely give you better returns.
Remember to put your money where institutional investors are putting theirs.

I just have to agree with you. I know every one batters POs because of the delays but many folks will not make 50% within a year on the floor because of all kind of mistakes or lack of time to monitor stocks and do research.

I hear from many folks that say, I just want to make 50% in 1 year and I always wonder what better Xmas present than Bank PHB or Zenith PO. Let me see who will be able to buy Zenith this time next year for N60 (The effects of possible bonus not included).

nazzyon:
Thanks for your response.

I am too busy to be monitoring PO's. Even a friend at my broker firm complains that I seldom pay attention to the movement of my stocks.

If you are too busy then I think you are better off with POs.

It does not require monitoring. Just use a broker and check in again in a year's time. With the CBN verification now off, I don't think any PO will last longer than 1 year.

titus:
Folks,
I bought Japaul while it was on TS. Should I still hold on or sell off?

Sell now. _{If you can}. Profit takers will depress the price. Short term, I think Japaul is over-priced despite the expected future mega growth. The PE ratio is over 40  

The strategy of most people that bought during TS is to take profit and this already started.

windywendy:
Seems like Proshare hasn't put out the dealers' perspective for a couple of days now. Anyone knows how that information can be obtained -- information that shows net bids and offers? Please share. Thanks.

Someone shared the link from UBA Stockbrokers below.

http://www.ubagroup.com/stockbrokers/docs/stockrecomendation.pdf

The only problem is that often it is a day behind.

afroil:
@FatherOF2,

no bi me get Afroil o.i started usin it as my nairaland Id to serve as a remembrance for d fuckin =N=1.5million net gain i made from it middle this yr durin the long rally upnorth d moribound stock (so to say some peeps on this forum) made that time.i was among d luck ones that reaped bountifully from it.

As per your broker, i just nid him for trading activities only nt 4 any other tins like advice on wich stock to buy or nt to buy,lailai.i myself i'm a stock analyst/picker myself,and i hav been doing that on weekly/monthly basis 4 d past more than 3yrs now,it has been win-win tin 4 me.Though i rarely post thread on advice on stock on this forum because i wait arguement based on my last experience.

still let me know your stock broker probably via my e-mail given earlier

Don't bury your 3 years stock trading experience under the pillow. Make you share with the house make we follow u dey win-win now

chukkie:
@PUMPING

IKEJA HOTEL PLC
NINE MONTHS UNAUDITED RESULTS FOR PERIOD ENDED 30-09-2007
2007 2006
TURNOVER N3.839b N3.403b
PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION N929.943m N809.501m
TAXATION (N297.582m) (N242.734m)
PROFIT AFTER TAXATION N632.361m N566.380m

Thanks!!

yodiyokun:
Baba Ibeji,

Expand Further - So you are not interested in the future performance of the company, just the current performance and the way the market will react to the news of the result.

But we have seen that the market does not react to all results, e.g GTB result did not get any reaction neither did First Banks. So which companies are we talking about ?

What criteria make them unquie for this kind of cherry pick (_{or should I say gambling)}.

Talk to me

No intention to usurp.

I think one effective strategy will be to exit before the results are actually released (or closure of register) because the price build up will have increased the stock price for the anticipated good results or benefits.  

So if good results are released, you don't lose much because additional price increase will in most cases only be marginal and you won't join the herd trying to sell off at the same time. If the result is bad, you already exited before the correction to lower the price.

I have been looking at the trends and I see that the prices tend to start rising a few weeks before the results are eventually released.

FatherOF2:
I give you an example.Look back in the last 3months.Try and observe when some of the BLUE CHIP companies announce their results.If you've been keeping any accurate records,you'll see it falls mostly on Thursday or Friday.Now you're are not on the trading floor.If you've noticed a gradual consistent descent in a stock you've been watching.You can give your buy order to your broker on these days (particularly when you're anticipating a release of results for that month).You would have taken your position if you're lucky before the results comes out and everyone else would hear tomorrow morning and prize starts jumping again.Same also,don't be greedy,set your exit target and sell those days while buyers are available.Most people give their brokers sell order in panic when they see prices falling next day,not knowing some people don carry their own run.
Pumping i go soon ask you big question.Hold your calculator one day.

Nice tip. Another weapon in my arsenal.

Does anyone have the results for Ikeja Hotels? The formatting is is messing up the data on proshare.

[/quote][quote author=FatherOF2 link=topic=31554.msg1749326#msg1749326 date=1196863720]Pumping i go soon ask you big question.Hold your calculator one day.

FatherOF2:
If the trend shows a consistent descend, they're buy days.
If the trend shows a consistent ascend, they're sell days.
These are my ways.

Meanwhile you never ask me question before.Wetin happen?.

Nothing. I have never had anything to ask you before now.

You've never asked me a question before also but that does not mean you cannot ask me something tomorrow 

Only a fool keeps his question to himself 

@FatherOF2

Regarding the Thursday/Friday action dates.

From your previous posts, my understanding is that these are good days to SELL. Is this correct or does it apply to BUYING as well?

CILeasing eventually took a hit today. Lost around 5%.  About time too. I think it was getting over-priced with a projected PE of over 35.

No doubt, it has excellent potentials but too much premium had been factored into the stock.

Naijadr:
Hey Folks, I created some spreadsheets (used an example online), same as pumping just posted, with SMA and EMA for couple of stocks

Also created equations that tell me if its a Buy or Sell based on EMA

This one is the one for Diamond Bank (equation has it as Buy same as Access Bank)

I used cashcraft for price info, and then make sure to reverse the columns (sort in ascending order)

appears accurate but who knows, feel free to criticize.

Please which equations do you use to determine if it is a buy or sell?

Is there any visual observation that can suggest either?

yodiyokun:
Temmie,

I have read this article and looked at the calculation of the SMA and EMA but how exactly do we know which stock to apply it to?

I mean doing this for all the stock listed will take more than a full time job.

Moreover, half of what was said in that article just went over my head.

Can someone give us an example from the NSE. I am very much interested in this technical analysis because I believe combining it wil Fundamentals may be a win win situation.

For a start, I think you can apply it to stocks that you already own or are planning to buy.

Did you download the spreadsheet?  You can fill in the table with stock data for instance from Cashcraft's "Stock Price movement" page.  I pasted the date and closing price columns simultaneously into a new excel sheet and sorted in ascending order since Cashcraft has it in descending order.

I have attached what I got for CILeasing. The chart is quite small since it's on the same sheet so I'd prefer to have it on a separate worksheet.

I think one just has to update the daily prices and extend the rate of the chart going forward.

easimoni:
Ok, let's see if I did this right. If u can download this, go to cell A2 on both pages and select the company you wish to see results or dividend/bonus history for. Kudos to Wanaj0

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=NFZM7QPY

Thanks a lot (again ). This is so cool.

LondonCool:
@Pumping777,

Oga Pumping777, did I read that the minimum offer for subscription was 1,000,000 Units ? That should be N7m -are you leading a consortium of Private Equity Managers or would the money come from your pocket? Do you know what the ROI would be ? I'm interested but constrained by the price.

Oga mi,

Yes, you are right. Na just number now. Seek and you shall find

I am collecting contributions from everyone in my extended family

Frankly I expect a mininum return of over 200% in 2 years after going through the offer documents. They have some solid plans.

I have to retract this.

Temmie10:
@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship between the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is between 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

Yes, some of these growth rates are just astronomical making it hard to say with so much certainty that a company stock is "expensive". Like you said, one interim result and everything changes by far!!

Imagine this. Costain Internation sold off their stake in Nigeria and touted this as a very deft move when I was reading through a document on their strategic plan.

Now check out the value of Costain in Nigeria Costain International won't consider that move so smart right now

When will the PEs of companies like Nahco or Japaul come to reasonable levels?? Folks just believe in some mega growh lurking (I don't) and are willing to pay these premiums.

Imagine that UBA's 18 month PAT for 2006 was 11.6B but for 12 months of 2006 UBA declared 21.4B!! The 12 month PAT nearly doubled the previous year's 18 month PAT. Na wa for NSE.

Temmie10:
@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship between the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is between 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

Yes, some of these growth rates are just astronomical making it hard to say with so much certainty that a company stock is "expensive". Like you said, one interim result and everything changes by far!!

Imagine this. Costain Internation sold off their stake in Nigeria and touted this as a very deft move when I was reading through a document on their strategic plan.

Now check out the value of Costain in Nigeria Costain International won't consider that move so smart right now

bigjay01:
@Windywendy, Wanaj0, Roughcut, Pumping777 and all gurus to mention but a few and indeed all members of the house

A quick question, why is there not much enthusiasm about the Afribank PO. Is it that bad?

regards

I think most of the analysis on this thread is very short term focussed so an offer like Afribanks' may not make the cut.

Returns are generally being expected within 1 year even though even 1 year is now being considered "medium to long-term" nowadays.

Afribank is seen as expensive short term. Just by looking at the cost of the shares compared to the expected future earnings of the company in the very near future.

If you are investing long term, I don't think the prospects are so bad though but still you probably still have better offers out there.

I'm quarter to deciding to participate in a PP for the first time. BGL.  Hard decision because the shares will not be listed for another 2 years and of course it will probably take longer. However, there will be the possibility to sell over the counter from early January next year. The offer closes by middle of this month.

Anyone with red warning signs for PPs? Worst case scenarios?? Anyone that has analyzed this particular PP? I am posting the offer document again.

http://us.f13.yahoofs.com/bc/473db9b4_a39e/bc/My+Documents/Private+placement+24+nov+07+CD.pdf?bfuVbVHBtVoxVeLZ

Temmie10:
keep quiet o, see what your broker has done to agleventis,

I hope say the man get my quota sha or I move over to your broker,

See wetin una don cause with CILeasing My Xmas turkey don fly comot

easimoni:
ALL (esp those of you who use the FSDH report to build your own sheets)

I hope you noticed the change in WAPIC's name and location on the report. Screwed up my trend analysis till I noticed.

You should have seen the confusion in my eyes after seeing the sudden very "green" PE ratio of Sovereign Trust insurance after entering the new results!!! Came down to earth when I saw the price did not match and this was due to the changed position of Wapic 

Labo:
Hi Guys,
Does anyone know which of these two stock I can invest 400,000K on. PHB or Zenith. Any contribution will be well appreciated.
cheers

Based on the combination I want to assume you are looking at the POs.

If this is the case, then due to possible over-subscription, I will advice that you do both so you have less chances of returned funds.

pumping777:
In my case I missed it because I still lack some results dating to the past.

On the surface it is easy to miss because the Q-2 PAT was only 0.22B. However, considering the Q-3 PAT for 2006 was 0.36B and the Q-2 PAT for 2006 was 0.18B, one should have caught on the trend that the Q-3 PAT could be significantly higher.

The only problem is that I did not have the Q-3 result for 2006. What we need now is the full year for 2006. I am going to go find it now.

Yes, if I can get tomorrow or Friday, I am in.

@damoche07 - Did you get some?

My broker got some on Thursday though at a slight premium to today's closing price but no complaints.

@easimoni and crazyT - My order has gone out for tomorrow. I beg let me complete my small purchase before the elephants cause Tsunami inside the the market o   .

pumping777:
I think OandO is already hot but maybe you want to wait till year end results. I am already playing though.  Except for a late challenge from AP, I expect them to post the best PAT even after deducting minority interest.  They are on course for at least PAT 0f 3.8B even after deducting minority interest. Just see what Chevron and Total posted this week. They are nowhere near even in terms of value (not just PAT).

Let's see if AP will spring an Otedola surprise. I already sold my AP after 50% gain within 7 weeks.. My #1 gamble stock for this year.

Who is riding with OandO? See the jist over 25% days ago. _{3 weeks ago}

AP is hitting the rooftops and I believe OandO will always follow suit. This is what I want to term profit by association    Seriously though, OandO generates more income than AP so what else can be expected?

AP already has a forward PE of 27 compared to 20 for OandO. I am moving from the front seat to the owner's corner in OandO's fast accelerating limousine

easimoni:
The results are funky: over the last 7 Qs, they've been making ~100M per Q and in the 3rd Q of the current year, they make 200M despite a DROP in revenue. The % increase over the same period last year was not impressive because they restated the 9 mnth 06 as 355 when it was 298. If we think they still make 100M per Q, the FY will be ~510. If they make 200M per Q from this point forward, FY will be closer to 610

AG Leventis is a hot buy for me then. The forward PE is now less than 11.5 if they can hit 610M. windywendy's analysis now makes more sense to me. I'm no longer standing in this bus. I am taking a seat beside the driver

easimoni:
What about "our" university press. Up 10% in the last 2 sessions. Na Shigidi cause am o. My broker no see buy again. Next time, I no go talk until I don buy finish.

I have finally concluded that some agents for some institutional investors on the NSE are lurking here in the shadows

Alert!!!

I suppose most saw the results of Premier paints today.

Very fishy. Suddenly we have results for 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Losses in 2003 and 2004 with the company returning to profit in 2005 and 2006!!

Profit in 2006 is 9.4M from a turnover of 203.1M. However, exceptional item of 25M, so it should really have been a loss of 16.6M.

Smells very much like Livestock Feeds. The next thing I suspect is the announcement of a PO or rights issue for a company that has rebounded to profits.

I just have the feeling.