₦airaland Forum

aktopgun:
been whiling away time preparing a little tutorial on how to evaluate stocks for our new members.
should be ready in a week or so and will post it then.

as my friend fatherof2 would say, "na all theory sha". i just think it will help the old and new alike and as long it increases our knowledge and earning power i'm for it

me i'm still waiting to be fatherof1!!

The boy dey take him time o!

ololufemi:
Not tired of Zenith and bank PHB presently

hmmmnnnnnnnn, planning to cycle in on FCMB as soon as TS is lifted(actually i'm cycling in now) and hopefully by the time i cycle out the TS on bank PHB would have been lifted so i can ride on that one!

upward:
To Ololufemi, and pumping, I will give you N2 for every unit you buy from me. . I bought those shares during the IPO so i've made enough profit, make una come buy now. Well, _{the wahale sef be say they never verify the certificate finish.}, Please how much bonus did tehy give, i/e one for every ,

They declared a dividend of N1 and a bonus of 1 for 4  if my memory serves me right. I'm still waiting for both. I might just take you up on your offer though but seriously hang on to your shares till when it comes off TS but then if you need the money to lock into some other opportunities by all means.

If i add small change to my dividend from Zenith i think i can get as far as Isle of Wight in England make i be like oga wanaj0. The thing never reach make i take flight go naija

Naijadr:
true true, if u have the money to tie down , and if u think the rewards (% of gain) outweighs the risk.
a better option would have been for all of us to have purchased Oando when it was in the N78-80 range for months even in Nov and turn around and sell it now for N110 in less than a mth

Couldnt agree more!

Naijadr:
True true, our obsolete national refineries
still have my hesitation though from an insider's perspective I guess, but like everything I'm sure folks will be ok for short term, but long term is another ball game.

Lets put it this way throw in a couple of thousand pounds and wait till when it comes on stream in '09 and hopefully they will do a PO and knowing the psychology of the market you can expect an over-subscription and you can sell your private holding to the highest bidder just before they go on TS(if i'm that lucky to time the market correctly) hopefully i can afford to tie down about two thousand pounds till then.

Back in '05 they were going to do the PP for a minimum subscription of N1M then but not sure what happened

If they do a PO for a refinery (they have to because they need the money!) that's already in production and making money i expect that to come a lot more than the N100 per share for the PP they are doing now and we are talking a timeframe of less than 18 mths

I'm assuming my permutaions are correct

Naijadr:
Hmmm Orient's management is very questionable, not the MD but there are other factors (that I wouldnt be privileged to discuss on here) that would make me very hesitant to throw in money there.

I have actually been thinking about this refinery business since i first heard the gist in '05 but come think of it i dont think it would be any worse than our 'national' refineries

wanaj0:
Nothing to show that they have a succession plan. Put another way, if they do, the plan is not working. The guy being touted as successor (an ED) left for Oceanic not too long ago.

Take a look at GTB. Adeola left and Aderinokun took over. It is pretty obvious that Agbaje is next on the line. Intercontinental is also like that. No plan to replace Erastus. For UBA, not expecting any problem. Chika will likely be the one to take over.

Surprisingly, I don't expect Oceanic to face the same problem. Ibru was not the pioneer CEO. The recent recruitment of some egg heads as ED's shows that something is cooking.

Welcome to the world of executive recruitment/head-hunting
I don't know sha but i think  Zenith can afford to pay a couple of million pounds i meant naira to these head-hunters to find someone with the right calibre and experience to run the bank when Ovia decides to take the back seat. Or we don't have such coys in nigeria who can do this? if that is the case may be that is something i need to start thinking about

Not too sure  that the next CEO has to come from inside Zenith but then i suppose it's going to be a bit of a challenge to get someone in from the 'heavy-weight' banks to run Zenith just my thoughts by the way

BTW:Read that Orient refinery (hoping to be first refinery in naija) is doing a private placement of 50kobo ordinary shares at N100 per share and the minimum application is for 1,000 units(a lot cheaper than MTN ) and UBA Global Markets are the finacial advisers. The refinery will be producing 55,000bpd and hoping to come on stream in early '09. At least since it's privately owned we would not have to put up with the horror stories we have had with our 'refineries

The offer closes end of December

wanaj0:
Anybody watching OandO?? Now close to 110.00. If you bought last week, you should be having over 25% now. Did anyone pick this up with their charts and trends?

May be the chartists and the trendists do not have Oand O

bigjay01:
@Windywendy, Wanaj0, Pumping777, easimoni, Roughcut and all members of the house.

Please have a look at the attached chart, Have I got the averages right? if yes what does the mixture of signals suggest?

In arriving at BUY/SELL decision, I have used the prevailing condition that "When the shorter moving average (the one calculated from the lowest number of intervals) moves above the longer moving average a buy signal is generated and when the short moving average moves below the longer moving average a sell signal is generated." from www.trademade.com

That is an oversimplification of the use MACD to arrive at your BUY/SELL signal. Your formulas for the EMA are correct per se. What you need to is to chart the 10-Day EMA against the 20-day EMA(Excel spreadsheet job about 5 mins) or 12-day EMA against the 26-Day EMA and in this case your cross-over or signal point should be the 9-Day EMA from your data table which is the point on the chart where the line for the 10-day EMA crosses the line for the 20-day EMACD this is your cross-over line or signal line some sort of reference point(color-code the lines to differentiate). You dontactually have to construct the chart use the 9-Day EMA as your signal point.

So what you need to do is insert the formula for the BUY/SELL signal as you have done already if the EMA from your spreadsheet  or the current closing price is higher than the cross-over or signal EMA that is a SELL signal and if vice-versa a BUY signal this will tend to happen over very few data points and so you don't have a BUY/SIGNAL every single day. The point of calculating your MACD on a daily basis is to confirm if there's an emerging pattern either BULLISH or BEARISH for that stock

The cross-over or signal line is used to set up the support level which would be your reference point. You can construct the 10-day EMA and the 20-Day EMA to determne a pattern either bullish or bearish since you have a longer time-period you can make a definite judgement. If the MACD(subtract the longer-term EMA from the shorter-term EMA) is negative it means the pattern is bearish and if positive it means the pattern is bullish and not a BUY/SELL signal you will set up a BUY/SELL signal once you have determined the cross-over or signal as i have described

I will look into the spreadsheet and 'tweak' it so what i'm saying makes more sense to you

If you still have questions just holla!

I think quite a lot of peeps now know how to use the MACD so let's move on to the the second  indicator that is commonly used in TA.

Relative Strength Index

Has the same application/uses as MACD the only difference is in the way they are computed. They measure the same metric which is the divergence between RSI and the actual  stock price gain/loss. this divergence is quite a powerful for making BUY/SELL decisions. See note below on Divergence

The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. Recommended time period is 14

RSI= 100  -  (100/1+RS)
                 


Components of RSI  


Components of RSI


Average Gain   =     (Total Gains/n)

Average Loss   =      (Total Losses/n)
                                     


First RS             =  (Average Gain/Average Loss)



Smoothed RS       =[(Previous Average Gain) x 13 + Current  Gain]/14/
                                        [(Previous  Average Loss) x13 + Current Loss]/14


n        =                          number of RSI periods

Please note the Gain/Loss is the difference between the opening price and the closing price for the day in particular and the sum of

Gain/Losses divided by the number of days in the period which is 14(you can vary the period number of periods in question though for longer trend analysis) is the average Gain/Loss

All subsequent computations of RS for the following days will use the Smoothed RS

Calculation for the first RS i.e for the first day of computation is Average Gain/Average Loss


Application


[list]
[li]Overbought/Oversold[/li]

[/list]

Wilder recommended using 70 and 30 and overbought and oversold levels respectively. Generally, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish for the underlying stock. Conversely, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend and then use extreme readings for entry points. If the long-term trend is bullish, then oversold readings could mark potential entry points

[list]
[li]
Divergences[/li]
[/list]

Buy and sell signals can also be generated by looking for positive and negative divergences between the RSI and the underlying stock. For example, consider a falling stock whose RSI rises from a low point of (for example) 15 back up to say, 55. Because of how the RSI is constructed, the underlying stock will often reverse its direction soon after such a divergence. As in that example, divergences that occur after an overbought or oversold reading usually provide more reliable signals

[list]
[li]Centerline Crossover[/li]

[/list]

The centerline for RSI is 50. Readings above and below can give the indicator a bullish or bearish tilt. On the whole, a reading above 50 indicates that average gains are higher than average losses and a reading below 50 indicates that losses are winning the battle. Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a move below 50 to confirm bearish signals

Divergence:

A situation that occurs when two lines on a chart move in opposite directions vertically. People often look for divergences by comparing a stock's direction to the direction of its RSI, its MACD or its Stochastic Oscillator. There are two kinds of divergences: positive and negative. A positive divergence occurs when the indicator moves higher while the stock is declining. A negative divergence occurs when the indicator moves lower while the stock is rising

The next and the third in the series for the TA indicators you can use  is the Stochastic oscillator

Watch the space!

Temmie10:
@roughcut
i hear you
its no point arguing on when or whether correction will happen,
During the so called bear market of this year, i still made a lot of money
Lets enjoy our gains on the NSE abeg, hw's zurich?

When there is a 'correction or bearish situation' on the stockmarket that is the time we bargain hunters should be making a killing that is the point of TA when a lot of peeps who are responsible for pushing up the prices have bailed out
Zurich is kool as usual

pumping777:
Please which equations do you use to determine if it is a buy or sell?

Is there any visual observation that can suggest either?

The visual observation comes from recognizing the chart patterns. For any chart type you can construct (should be pretty easy to abi?) the patterns will alwasy fall into the following patterns most commonly as below

[list]
[li]Head and shoulders[/li]
[li]Double Tops and Bottoms[/li]
[li]Triple Tops and Bottoms[/li]

[/list]

Also there are various chart types which are mainly

[list]

[li]Line chart[/li]
[li]Bar charts[/li]
[li]Candlestick charts[/li]

[/list]

How this affects your investment decisions or the practical application i will try and demystify in the upcoming tutorial

wanaj0:
Thanks for breaking down the big grammar for me.

haba! as the resident stock field marshall which big grammar are you talking about? i think you are being modest.

Make i nak one proverb finish my tory[b]There is no a baby elephant will be manifesting at the same time as the father elephant is on the center-stage[/b] hope you catch my drift

I just dey try to learn from the 'elder'

Temmie10:
@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship between the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is between 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

For starters i am not implying that the 'correction' will herald a crash or  be dramatic. Correction will happen when the market realises that some stocks are over-valued and the subsequent sell-off will cause the share price to plummet (supply and demand again) until they can now find a new level of support.

Like the technical analysts would say every time a stock breaks through the support level the new level becomes the resistance and the share price can start to inch up again to breach the resistance point this is a healthy development to maintain the market dynamics so that the system does not go under. I have not in any way suggested that a correction will be catastrophic or dramatic

There's a direct correlation between credit markets(inter-bank lending) and a stock or capital market but in Nigeria the correlation is almost zilch and that is why a lot of investors both individual and institutional in the western economies are selling and investing the cash in the NSE. At least you know about the wild gyrations on the western stock exchanges because of the 'credit crunch' and until the subprime mortgage debacle is sorted out  we will continue to witness the inflow of off-shore funds into the NSE which is one of the reasons prices loôk inflated and over-bloated just now

Just pray that they don't pull out their funds because that will be something else for you and me to worry about!

K2:
@Roughcut or any person that has bought IPOs or POs for your children, how do you do it? I meant in filling the form? Do you fill their name and sign your signature as "for***" or you sign your regular signature? You may treat this as for someone that's NRN.

@Naijadr, I have the UBA stuff as well but only because of the loan to buy FBN offer. Do you go through Tope each time or you have a direct link with the broker? I don't have a direct link. Do you also know if they had refunded your FBN money? My rep can't give me a straight answer.

All you need to do to open an bank account for dividend payment is send the passport pictures of your child to someone reliable(ask them to sign the passports pictures) in nigeria and get the adult to stand as the legal guardian for that child(if you are not there physically or you can take a trip a to naija to sort it out). Then the person will open an account(i did this with GTB in my son's name) and get the legal guardian to sign the paperwork as the child is a minor and therefore not capable of entering into any legal agreement that's why you need an adult to be the legal guardian in nigeria. Make sure the account is opened in the child's name and you can start paying the dividends into the account

As for filling in the forms you can complete the paperwork  as usual and sign as the legal guardian/parent of the child.

windywendy:
Kai, no misquote me o! If oga see this one now, na yawa be that

But seriously, you're right though. Can you imagine international breweries PO being oversubscribed to the point where the company has to return monies Amazing! That's what I call "moni miss road". Interesting unfolding of events! Let's keep watching.

That tells you that peeps are just buying  indiscriminately. Cant even remember where the breweries is located. Well in line with the new fad they may decide to absorb the 'awoof' money since it was an unexpected windfall

Wonders will never cease to end!

windywendy:
what? speak up, say something we can understand _{apart from "hmmmm" of course}

@Wanaj0, I quite understand your view point. A correction is in order, but you'ld still see higher PE's before that happens, especially with all the PFA funds and other PE and hedge funds coming into the market. As long as there are no comparable alternative outlets for investing these funds, they'lll find their way into the stock market. And you and I know what happens when you have too much money chasing a few good stocks . . .

If on the other hand you still decide to keep your money under your pillow, then you need to let me know where you live so that I can send some "awon boyz" to give you an incentive to not do that _{just kidding}

Seriously, though, put your money to work for you.

hmnnnnn, there is irrational exuberance like i said because a lot of peeps are not really buying the good stocks they are throwing money at the good, the bad and the ugly i mean there is indiscriminate buying because some think all you have to do is invest in the NSE and by the time folks realise they have probably not made wisest of investment that is when there will be a scramble to dump these over-priced and over-bloated stocks

Like you said the key is to pick the few good men, i meant the few good stocks

wanaj0:
Not sure I understand what you are saying here!

A lot of peeps have bought probably at over-inflated prices and a lot of peeps must sell to recover or lock in profits the unfortunate thing is this will tend to happen all at the same time especially for the PO/IPO's and that will depress the share prices (simple law of demand and supply) and that is when the prices will start dropping and lead to the correction

damoche07:
CSMA,MACD etc.Come on,this is not a CIS or CFA class.Please educate someone here on what these terms mean.there are rookies here please.

No cause for alarm i will do a nice little tutorial on these jargons and upload it to emaachile's upload website for all

wanaj0:
Just last year!!!!!!!! Not too long ago.

PFA money distorted the market. With everyone buying anything! Just heard now that International Breweries was over subscribed and there will be return money!!!!

There will definitely be correction soon!

Classic case of irrational exuberance to borrow Alan Greenspan's phrase it is asign that the market is in an overbought position and a 'correction' will definitely take place to restore some sort of equilibrium meaning those who have bought must definitely sell to realise profits and that is when i think the discerning investor should open a position or positions

ololufemi:
@ Roughcut,

Did the calculation and found out that the 10 day CSMA is higher than the 20 day and 50 day CSMA exponentially. Also, the price is lower than the 10 day CSMA but higher than the 50 day CSMA. All calculations were done exponentially.

I think it sounds good

Thanks

Yep that means the trend for the 10-Day CSMA is set to persist or continue and therefore therefore in the short-term the price will trend higher

If you evaluate the formula MACD/CSMA = 10-Day MACD/CSMA minus 50-Day MACD/CSMA  it should be positive which validates the hypothesis  earlier

model1780:
Please is there any site where I can get to learn about these CSMA/CDMA terms very very well, i'll like to know how to make use of them to determine shares to go for, tnx.

investopedia.com willl not disappoint and visit realtimeforex.com too

ololufemi:
@ Roughcut,

Will do that but It might take some time extrapolating the figures and calculating them.

Have you got any templte or spreadsheet for that long a period.

Thanks

Go to cashcraft.com and choose STOCK PRICE MOVEMENT[/b]and input the parameters for example for 50-day CSMA that simulates 2-month trading figures

so input the Start Date as 10-01-2007 and End Date as 11-30-2007(American Date format)

Select the company you are interested in

Click [b]Submit search

Not only does it give the chart pattern(which is very aesthetic i  must say and a trend you can recognise) but you also get the timeline series in of the price movement for the dates you have specified.

Cashcraft is not completely useless afterall!

Another chart plotter you may want to try is on nigeriasecurities.com and http://www.advsofteng.com/download.html

Spreadsheet is work-in-progress and when its ready i will let it loose

Enjoy!

aktopgun:
redstat stagnant again today at N7.49

u guys on this forum have traded them so much that they feel ready after just over 2 weeks on the floor to go on T.S or is it that they are so illiquid no trades are not affecting the price

na wa for una fellas o!!  

i'll just go after C&I
make una hands off and that goes for wanajo, pumping, roughcut, windywendy, fatherof2 etc
make i no vex o!  

All you need to do on this forum is mention a stock and before you can say Bob's your uncle the thing moves out of the firing range kilode? Wetin man go do now

Redstar is a mystery. seems the shares are being recycled between 2-3 people and you can cant get a look in. Looks like those 2-3 peeps own about 90% na wa o!

And good luck with Bambino

ololufemi:
@ All,

Did a 10 day CSMA for Diamond bank and got N18.94.

I thnk any purchase should be below this price.

Any suggestions or comments

You also need to calculate the 50-day CSMA/CDMA and if the 10-day CSMA is higher than the 50-Day CSMA that is definitely an indication that the price will trend higher but if the other way round then you may need to look for something else to put your money in. This is the most relevant usage for exponential moving averages(i'm assuming you are using exponential moving averages as opposed to linear)

damoche07:
What has changed about japaul?it wasnt a favorite before.do u see them beating their forecast because of their international reach?Didint EVEN ATTEMPT TO BUY PO.
On GTBank,the PE i have is above 21.any chance they might surpass their projected PAT?Anybody knows which quarter thay make a chunk of their money?

Japaul oil made PAT N317M for Q3 and N134M or 70% of that figure came from Q3 alone and they have projected PAT for full-year in the region of  N444M in the offer prospectus so you can reasonably assume they are on their way to beat that forecast.

Going by the results you would have a forward PE of 22(if you had bought befôre TS was lifted you would have bought a at a forward PE of 10.36 which is not too far from the projections in the prospectus and more importantly how cheaper can you get?) and the forward EPS  is 36.1K which is excellent for a ~N6 stock. The projection is based on 1.166B outstanding shares as at now and obviously the new shares will not be listed before DEC 31 when they release the FY 07 results

So like i said earlier not sure where you got the impression that the stock was a no-no in fact it is  a YES-YES and the funny thing is by the time you open a position it might have become expensive in terms of the price-earnings multiple(another term for PE ratio)

damoche07:
What has changed about japaul?it wasnt a favorite before.do u see them beating their forecast because of their international reach?Didint EVEN ATTEMPT TO BUY PO.
On GTBank,the PE i have is above 21.any chance they might surpass their projected PAT?Anybody knows which quarter thay make a chunk of their money?

Who said? It has ne^ver been out of favour. Go and have a look at their latest 9-month results and you will find they are on course to meet expectations. Not sure where you got the info that it wasnt a favourite i didnt buy into the PO because i don't do PO's these days(except it happens to be an offer i cannot refuse) hopefully i can dig out my post on this company its a while back though let me see if i can rustle up something

aktopgun:
@pumping
      
i tire my brother!.

me i am back home now, even at work sef, have some work to do.
wifey is still in waiting at home.

this childbirth business is more nerve racking than watching the gyrations on the NSE i tell u man but as with the NSE the rewards are ASTRONOMICAL!!      

We await his arrival but i have to keep up with what i will use to send him to harvard bros!

talking about that, i have just been digging on C&I leasing and it seems these guys have increased profits almost year on year since 1998. they have managed to remain the only listed company in their sector and are diversifying from their main stay of car rentals and other leasing activities to oil and gas (always big money as u know).
they even bought over a ghanian leasing company this year therby expanding into the west african subregion

they are not looking bad at all.

any views man?

I think the guy correct? is calculating  his P/E and EPS ratios for Zenith, ACCESS and Intercontinental bans so i think he would his make his entrance when he is satisfied that he has a good deal on his hands since you have decided to carry your analysis sheet into the labour room 

All the best man and don't forget to welcome him with shareholding in those banks i mentioned. I expect my son to be a stock market billionaire by the time he's 18 he's already shareholder in those banks and i can definitely say that Zenith and   Intercôntinental would still be going strong by the time he's of age

Good luck pal and keep us informed!

As per C+I Leasing i did a post a while just before the PO with a BUY recommendation so the position is still valid that the stock will do well is not in question  the more pressing issue is can you get to buy on the floor? this is easily a N10-12 stock in the next 3 months.Quite a large chunk of their profits came from theeir overseas opeartions in the business they acquired in  Ghana and i think they are also going into lease financing so all counts its a WINNER and add Japaul Oil to the list

windywendy:
Will see what I can come up with this weekend.

As an aside, for those who bought the Union Diagnostic PP, I heard it was 100% over-subscribed.

Yeah got in at the right time on that one even if i didnt get in on the PP i would have jumped in on the secondary market i mean those guys enjoy a virtual monopoly. If i remember correctly what i read in the PP prospectus their business model is quite unique even though there are other medical dignostics outfits but they look like a monopoly when you drill down to the details of what they are offering so i should clean up on that one!

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg1734655#msg1734655 date=1196427018]Femi,

Thank you very much for this news.  Unfortuntely,with the system I now use, I hardly, if ever receive external mail, and so have lost out on the CSL daily market report.  Could you do me a favour please.  Could you be so kind to post the daily market reports from especially CSL beginning from TODAY, it shows the stocks on BID and those on OFFER.  The information helps me a lot, and it also posts COMPANY RESULTS as they are released at the NSE.

PLEASE CONSIDER THIS A SPECIAL REQUEST.

Before I make another appeal LET ME SPECIALLY WELCOME BACK WINDY WENDY, you are especially honoured and respected.  You were missed.  You proved true to your goodself with your recommendation of LEVENTIS.

Now to the other Gentle men and Women,

Could we shift a little further away from ourselves?

Now that Wendy is back and WanajO also back from the UK and Roughcut not currently flying or about to catch a flight, and easimoni too back from his Sabbatical, could we make some stock selections?  What I mean is that could they help pick some stocks for short term (say 6 - 12months  time frame), Medium term (1 - 2years time frame) and others for long term.  And they will help, if they add a brief note against each stock as to the factors influencing their decision.  And also suggested entry price. CAVEAT though is ever there.  As someone said, afterall the money belongs to whoever is using the material for his decision.   That will sure help quench the thirst for some questions that may be lurking in the minds of many lurkers here on the forum.  We will ever remain grateful.

This is important because, in a matter of hours December is here and the beginning of 1st quarter 2008 is just a few weeks away.  I see the Bull going mental come 2008, just my idle prediction though.  I personally do not see the market dropping too low than we are experiencing right now.

REGARDS to you all.  Let's get the thread FOCUSED, we all stand to benefit.[/quote]You are a very funny guy.

If you look at the psychology of the market there are now a lot of PO and IPO's and you can be rest assured that there's going to be a reallocation of liquidity to the primary market so as to take advantage of these offers.If you go easy on what and hold to your cash i would say the first quarter of next year would be good to jump into the secondary market the market is currently oversold and therefore everything is pointing in one direction. People will start liquidating their positions to take advantage of the offers in the primary market which means those of us bargain hunters can nail our masts to the pole in the secondary market because the prices of the stocks already oversold will start dropping( which is why a lot of peeps are thinking there will be a 'correction' in Q1 of '08

That is why the stocks you could get into are not available on the floor i have been chasing CI Leasing, Japaul,RedStar now for more than a week no show so i go siddon jeje dey look

PHB, FCMB would do well if you buy on the floor and FCMB is going to come off TS next week i think so if you can get it goog job. Bank PHB hold fire till near the time it would come off TS these are the ones i can think off in the short-term.

As for long-term as you seem to be suggesting in your post if you buy the worst performing stock on the NSE if you give it time( long-term) as you suggested it would deliver

samstone4:
@Roughcut, Nairalanders,

I did not buy Dangote Flour because like many others thought it was overrated.
Hear that those who applied for 100,000 will only get 12,000 units!

Should be good for speculators to quickly get in and out. Perhaps use Fatherof2 25% formula.

Goodluck. I am basically a fundamentalist with the occasional momentum streak or is it Taliban with suicide bomber streak?

Happy hunting.

Samstone4

Yeah its just that its going to be more than 25% though in this instance hmmmmnnnnnnnnn

I mean those who didnt buy during the PO will be clamouring to buy on the floor when its listed from those who bought into the PO because the market has already priced in an increase   and that would be reflected in the price people are willing to sell/buy and if there are liquidity issues Dangote might sell some more of his holding remember he still holds 75% of the shares in Dangote Flour Mills(he might decide to offload another 25% nice tidy sum especially when the prices are north-bound) hopefully he does not not do a 'one-day spectacular' ala NASCON

Teenom:
@Future "Silky Cut"
I need your advice. Bitte!
teenom )at( yahoo . de

I'm assuming that was directed to me sent you an e-mail already

Freundliche Grüsse .-)

windywendy:
_{***post modified to refocus attention to the "koko" of what I'm trying to pass across***}  

Ah! welcome back from your sabbatical leave i hope you are back with us full-time_{i know you have another very important full-time commitment}and talking about full-time commitments how's the little madam? hope i got it right  and all the best

i remember we said something about Dangote Flour IPO being expensive because of the PE ratio we arrived  at then and it was agreed it should not have been more than N10 but if the chinese whispers i'm hearing are true because there's a massive massive over-subscription then i think the price when the positions are resolved  will beat the all-comers record on the NSE so the N15 IPO will look like peanuts in comparison but i think it will probably shadow Dangote sugar's price trajectory

Another case of market inefficiency!

@All
kilode! i have only been on a 6-hour flight since yesterday night and i found i have to go through about 5 pages of  this thread this early morning just to catch up and i see that all our long-absent friends are 'back' in the house_{BIG-BOY LARRY has made a cameo appearance without his crystal balls} or you have passed the mantle to someone else