₦airaland Forum

Today, February 25th, is the long-awaited day for all Nigerians as we head to the polls to choose new leaders. The previous months witnessed intense politicking and campaigns, which I posit as the most competitive in recent history. Unlike in previous elections where there were only two bigwigs from the major parties, this election cycle saw the entry of two formidable opponents-Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso. This change tweaked the national political equations making it more complex to resolve.
Peter Obi enjoys a massive support from the youth(majorly from the South) and Christians who insist that it's the turn of one of them to steer the nation after an eight year rule of a Northerner. Kwankwaso's support base is largely in his populous home state of Kano, where he was a governor for two terms. He is also a darling of a large retinue of northern artisans due to his socialist leanings.
Despite the "table shaking" of Obi and Kwankwaso to the polity, neither of them stands a chance to win the elections. Obi has a little or no presence in the northern states. This reality will deny him the requisite 25% votes in at least 25 states. Forget the social media rage about LP gaining grounds in the north, it's all ruse. Obi's running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, is billed to lose his ward to either APC or PDP. In summary, PO will give the major parties a bloody nose in the SE and SW, and that's where it ends.
Kwankwaso has far lower chances compared to PO. He's only sure of winning Kano state- with less than 50%. He might get 25% in five more northern states. He won't get such in any southern state. And that's it.
The fact is that today's race is a battle between Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar.

WHAT NEXT FOR OBI AND KWANKWASO?
OBI
As I mentioned earlier, Obi has a big fan base in the SE, SS and parts of Lagos. History just has a way of repeating itself. Obi's populism is very much like Buhari used to enjoy in the North (2003,2007 and 2011). But Buhari could not wade through until he struck an alliance with a Tinubu from SW. There's no way any presidential candidate will win an election without at least getting support of a geopolitical zone outside his region.
After losing this election, it's time for Obi to go full throttle across the Niger to seek for political alliances. Doing this assiduously for four years will help him gain grounds, which when triggered by non performance of the incoming president, can be leveraged to boot the latter out of office.

KWANKWASO
The only chance I see for Kwankwaso to get to become President is if and only if Tinubu clinches today's polls. Since the former is from the south, the latter being a northerner can view for the position after expiration of the next tenure. However, if Atiku wins, Kwankwaso can at best be a VP to a formidable Southern candidate like Obi or Amaechi.

CONCLUSION
These are my permutations for the elections today, based on my experience in following politics for about 20 years. Many a people will definitely disagree with the submissions, but the reality will set in latest by tomorrow. All in all, elections especially in Nigeria should not be a do or die affair. Don't sever the relationships you toiled to build because of any politician. There's no politician who doesn't have that potential to disappoint. The last decade has taught us hard lessons on this. Cast your vote, and pray for the best candidate to win.

bidexiii:
Spotted same vehicle somewhere in lagos ?
When did you take this pictures?

Yesterday

As sighted somewhere in the North

Panasonic101:
I doubt if the guy said anything bad. Focus on your family member.

Oga comot for road abeg. He meant ridicule by that post. What's the relationship between hunger and trading?

When you went to spew nonsense on the thread, you didn't reason what you were clicking abi?

ImpregnaTor:
Honestly I don't feel connected with these northerners, we are not related in any way!
can we just devide this country pls

Nigeria cannot truly develop with such massive differences in ideology.

Your moniker reveals why you'll never get connected with them

WhizdomXX:
Warri
420.

Chai. Warri that has at least 5 depots 😞. This is disgusting

Islam, the true religion.

Pure farce. Those people that have access to nuclear warheads love this life more than everyone. Whatever set, the world won't end due to nuclear wars

amnesty7:
To win the presidency, not only a simple majority is required but 25% of the votes in at least 24 states and the FCT.
*In the 7 states of the NW, Obi may only get that in Kaduna State. The remaining 6 are out of his reach.
*In the NE, he may only get that in Taraba, 5 definitely out of his reach.
*In the NC, he could get that in Benue,
Nasarawa and Plateau. Kwara, Kogi and Niger out of his reach.
*In the SW, he could get Lagos and perhaps Oyo. The remaining 4 no way.
*SE and SS for him.
Still, Borno and Yobe alone could cancel out the SE votes.
You may happily quote Soludo after the winner is declared by Prof. Yakubu in five week's time.

Oil dey your head. It's statistically impossible for Obi to win this election. But his fans will always argue pointlessly

Pauldollars:
I passed through Saminaka in Lere Local Government of Kaduna State last week.
It was as if Peter Obi is the only Presidential candidate in Nigeria with the way his posters and billboards were scattered all over the town.

That's the same in all of Southern Kaduna
Kaduna North is more of Atiku.
Tinubu is just wasting time thinking of getting tangible votes in the North. Kwankwaso even has better chances of votes if he doesn't step down for Atiku

Continue deceiving yourself. The ballot is just a month away. For your info, Lere is not Southern Kaduna

Ddd

SmartODINO:
This isn't the right approach, if you ask me. Address the cause of the scarcity first !!

That's outside their control. Abi NNPC and DPR are now under Sanwo Olu?

The present IGP is tracking to be the best IGP in recent times. No unnecessary noise, just achievements

Kaduna to Abuja Road is safe now because of heavy security deployments.

I think the fee hike is inevitable. The two frobt runner presidential candidates are proposing cost reflective tuition fees in public universities to be cushioned by student grants and loans.

Great project execution. How I wish Yahya Bello focused on delivering such instead of his wasteful presidential ambition. By the way, has Ortom ever built any project worth 500 million Naira? Abeg if you have evidence, reply me

After Bayelsa, na Edo dey follow in terms of underdevelopment in the SS.

Abort mission, I repeat, Abort! Apart from medicine and perhaps architecture, i know not of any course whose unemployed graduates are not in the thousands. You having a PGD will not give you an edge over the normal graduates of chem eng.
I feel that you're restricting yourself to chemistry related jobs. The modern employment hustle doesn't work that way. Except if you have an ambition of becoming a lecturer or researcher, apply for anything that comes your way. You might even find it more interesting than your chemistry/chem eng etc

babyfaceafrica:
Datti can't win one lg in Kaduna

Nay, one ward. But dem go hear

OP, your analysis for the NW&NE is erroneous. I am 90% confident that Tinubu will get at least 25% in the 13 states. Yes, Atiku is influential in NE but he can't deny Tinubu getting 25%. It is this fact that makes Tinubu the most plausible winner of this political bout. He will get at least 25%in the following regions:
NW: All 7 states
NE: All 6 states
SW: All 6 states
NC: All 6 except Benue
SS: Only state I see foresee here is Edo
SE: None
FCT: Yes
TOTAL: 26 (with Edo), 25(without Edo)

Verdict : Tinubu has 25 states in the bag. The game is just to get the majority votes

As for Obi, I asssure you that the only states he might get up to 25% in the NW & NE are Kaduna, Adamawa and Taraba. In the SW, only Lagos. That's already 15 states off his table and thus no possibility of winning

Bookmark this post and quote me after the 2023 elections

I remember asking their customer service agent whether they'll show world cup games, a nd she assured me of that. Thank God, I opted for DSTV. This is what happens when you have weak-muscled regulators like FCCPC

How I wish 70% of those who are involved will stop. We'll have had a more blessed society

Let's start from ourselves, the "educated" class. Are we not same people that smear piblic conveniences in hostels, markets, offices? Are we not same people who refuse to keep our streets clean? Are we not the ones who litter and pee everywhere?
We just need a new positive mindset to be installed in everybody's brains

Dd

Albertgr8:
Useless statement
Deleted

Useless you. You're demented

Many people of South East extraction hate Nigeria whether passive or active. And they are the first to cry for being marginalized in government positions. If SE continues to be part of Nigeria and its inhabitants don't change this attitude, they will continue to suffer government neglect.
What I said is not borne of out of hate for the industrious Igbos, but it's the reality. You can't continue despising the federal government and other regions/tribes and expect them to love you. Igbos are at loggerheads especially with the Yorubas. Their relationship with the Niger Delta isn't so cordial. Same applies with the northerners. This can't be a coincidence. The SE intelligentsia needs to do a deep dive and correct this.

Despite the popularity of Obi in majorly SS ans SE, his chance of winning is not up 30%. Savvy followers of voting trends know this. So what will be the consequence of his loss especially to SE? If Tinubu wins, whom I think has the greatest chance based on extant realities, there's high likelihood of the SE being marginalized because the region didn't contribute to his emergence. That's politics for you. Never put your eggs in one basket. The SEners should learn not to disdain Igbo politicians that are aligned to the ruling party e.g Rochas, Umahi. These people might be their saving grace in the next dispensation.

The earlier the Igbos learn the ropes of politics, the better for them. I'm open to further engagements on this as far as it isn't acrimonious and acerbic

Onlinefarmstore:
Good morning so am leaving Abuja now, couldn't continue yesterday because of lack of drive, felt the need to wait.

Safe trip.

Multinational. Go build your skillset

Great initiative

Alhamdulillah. He's alive, and responding to treatment. SR and senseless journalism are 5&6

spyder880:
Painting works of the ceilings in this house starts.........

Very nice finish Sir. How much is this per square meter plus labor?